I sat through probably three hours of Greek theater stuff, with the crisis in full swing, from yesterday. I got the prospective from the German political chat forum, with a few Greeks dealing out their view of the unfairness of Germany. I got the prospective from the CNN folks who were there for the whole week and dumped updates throughout the day. I got the prospective from the British Sky News folks, who interviewed the typical guy on the street. And I got the plain old-fashion BBC coverage which gave twenty facts in a matter of five minutes.....something that is so rare on American news networks.
So, my ten observations:
First, no one really spoke up until Sunday in Greece over what happens on Monday. Yeah....you'd think folks would think about this prior to the vote, but that wasn't apparently the case. Monday and the entire week....I believe....will be very chaotic.
Second, tourism is taking a hit. The folks who bought tickets six months ago....are still coming into Greece, but I fail to see how any typical Greek vacation will occur. The last-minute crowd....probably ten-percent of all tourism in Greece? They are suffering badly. I watched an interview with hotel manager who handle mostly Greeks-on-holiday folks....who admitted no Greek is taking a vacation this year, and his hotel is suffering badly.
Third, some people connected to the political party in charge of the country seem to think that they can now come back to the EU and the banking folks, and demand a new negotiation package. My view is that the EU sees nothing worth making an effort, and will just stall for two weeks while the public in Greece gets to the next reality.....a dead economy.
Fourth, I expect no banks to open on Monday in Greece. I also don't expect banks to open on Tuesday or Wednesday. Because of limited cash flow......I don't see more than one day this week where they might open for a few hours before they run out of the money they have left. Next week? Hard to say.
Fifth, in general....I'd say that seventy percent of German adult society has an opinion on this. They'd say it's time for Greece to exit the Euro and move on. Lingering won't do themselves any good. I kinda agree with that philosophy. Maybe going to the Drachma would be a better solution. At least you could just print more money, if things got real bad.
Sixth, Greeks are growing pretty frustrated with political parties and politicians. I'd take a guess that thirty percent don't believe anything that is said....even by journalists.
Seventh. Maybe there should be a rule on how to allow a country to leave the EU. Currently, I don't see how Germany or anyone could force the Greeks to leave the EU or dump the Euro.
Eighth. Even if you loan the Greeks another 300-billion Euro.....it really doesn't mean much because the current behavior and attitude of the Greeks is that nothing big has to change. Tax avoidance is drilled into every single Greek businessman. Revenue spending is drilled into every Greek political figure. And Nazi invasion history is drilled into every Greek student. If you wanted change.....this would be the wrong society to expect anything to change.
Ninth. Oddly, this is the week where most German political figures would start their four to five weeks of summer vacation. I would speculate that at least forty of the top names in political circles....even for the opposition.....are stuck having to pull some kind of Greek chaos duty over the summer period. Their vacation plans are screwed.
Tenth. The vote yesterday? It really didn't settle much of anything. There's no road from the vote....going anywhere. Other than agreeing it was a bad deal to accept, now what?
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