Tuesday, July 7, 2015

The Next Ten Days in Greece

I sat and watched a five-star interview on the BBC yesterday....a Greek business guy who was dishing out observations left and right on the economy and the impact of the current mess.  As he noted....Greeks aren't working now....most are sipping Ouzo and wine, and just sitting there in a waiting pattern.

Today, there's to be some meeting of the Greek govenrnment and the EU folks, along with bankers.  Greece is supposed to put new negotiation papers on the table.  The chief item that they desire is to have a fair amount of the debt on the table already.....to be forgiven and just forgotten.  It's in excess of 300-billion Euro from the loan of five years ago that was supposed to tide them over and fix the previous problems.

My humble belief is that the EU will hear out the offer, and then go back to their respected governments for a two-day discussion.  No one will hear much until mid Thursday afternoon.  I have doubts that the offer will be acceptable, so I'm betting that the EU simply comes back and offers some cash to keep the banks open for sixty days (free cash, which they will never get back), and strongly suggest that the Greeks either go to the Drachma or find some other fool to get free money from.

At that point, the Greeks will accept the free cash, but walk over to the Russians and finalize some deal involving them to leave the EU.

Greeks by Saturday will realize just how big a mess this has become, and regret the 'no' vote.  With food and gas now unavailable....the public will be in great chaos.

Somewhere along Wednesday of next week....I'll predict that the government of Greece is under pressure to resign.

Tens of thousands of Greeks will have packed up their cars and attempt to flee the country because of the problems.  Thousands will flow into airports trying to leave but discover that half the flights have shut-down because of fuel shortages and cash flow issues.

The election with the 'no' thing?  Worthless, if you ask me now.  It'll be forgotten within ten days.


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