While I was off on vacation (Australia for three weeks)....Darmstadt disappeared.....all 137,000 people.
Well.....maybe not the city itself of Darmstadt.....but the German government finally fessed up and noted that they were missing roughly 130,000 refugees, asylum seekers and immigrants from 2015. They were forced into the corner after the opposition parties had heard rumors of a massive number of people missing. So, in the Bundestag last week.....they admitted 130,000 were gone. And they had no idea where they went..
I sat pondering this. Typically, if Darmstadt suddenly lose all 137,000 residents.....someone would care. Someone would go looking for them. In the case of these folks.....no one seems to care or desire to look. So, it begs some tough questions.
First, is it possible that someone down in Nuremberg just screwed up one night and invented 130,000 refugee names (Muahamad IV, Allah O. Tin, etc) and just screwed with the database....forgetting to delete the fake name game at the end of the shift?
Second, isn't it odd that they admit it's 130,000 but then won't tell you what nationalities they are? I mean.....even a one-star London reporter would have stood up and asked the magic question over how many were Albanians, Libyans, or Iraqis.....but here for German journalism.....no one seems to want to ask? Why?
Third, could it be that 130,000 folks arrived.....learned that they were not on the 'favored-son' list, and wouldn't likely be approved.....so they walked back to the border....bought a Syrian or Iraqi passport (fake) and then entered a second-time to be a 'favored-son' and get better odds on approval?
Fourth, did the 130,000 just slip away....under the cover of darkness, into France? Are France and Germany even talking to one another about refugee names and comparing names....making sure they aren't both helping the same guy?
Fifth, did the Americans sneak in and take the 130,000 away? We know the Americans are sneaky people and should never be trusted. Perhaps they've taken them away to the shadowlands of Burbank and forcing them to learn English, vote Democrat, and work for minimum wage for Starbucks?
Sixth, is it possible that the 130,000 aren't really missing and that they are quietly sitting in some confused and disjointed refugee camp in Dresden.....awaiting a status on their application which got lost and the one single input technician has been on eight months of vacation due to stress and panic-attacks?
Seventh, is it possible that they've gone back to their homeland after arriving in Germany and discovering that there are really crazy Germans here, hundreds of pages of application paperwork, some absolutely strong coffee, and simply too many gorgeous and enticing German women?
Eighth, is it possible that 130,000 guys (single) arrived with fake wives and fake children.....to ensure they got a real room to themselves and better benefits.....then allowed the fake wife and kids to return to their cousin or brother? Would the Germans be stupid enough to offer plus-up benefits for families versus single guys and not expect some fraud?
Ninth, is it possible that they've just continued on walking through Europe and registering in all 28 countries.....just to see which country might offer the better deal?
The fact that no German journalist was willing to ask real questions......to find the population of Darmstadt who evidently are lost.....demonstrates something of a bad nature. Reporters are supposed to be curious, and have reasonable doubt. In this case? They just grinned and pretended it's not a problem.
So.....if you ask me.....someone is being played for a fool. The question is.....who?
Monday, February 29, 2016
Sunday, February 28, 2016
The SPD and It's Anchor
Focus (the German magazine) wrote up a nice little article over the coming three state elections in Germany for mid-March.....and the likely fall of the SPD candidates. It's worth reading.
They are probably correct in that dismal numbers will result in some big meeting by mid-April, and some shake-up occurring with two or three big-name SPD national folks retiring, and some new people moving up.
The question is....will any of this really pump up enthusiasm within the SPD political circle and around the country.....for the two fall state elections?
My humble guess? No.
The SPD franchise name for several decades....was that they were about the common working-class German guy.....the guy who who built cars, drove a truck, baked bread at 3AM, and loaded planes with passengers and cargo.
With this whole discussion now in Germany centered on immigration, refugees, and asylum....the SPD hasn't exactly sat down with it's rank-and-file supporters and had some real discussion with the working-class supporters. They've worked the other way around.....telling the working-class guy what he ought to expect from them....the guys at the top or the intellectuals.
It would be curious to drag a hundred SPD enthusiasts.....not political players but the rank-and-file....into a room and have some real discussion from them....not the journalists, politicians or intellectuals. We might get a different assessment of the future and how to approach this whole immigration issue.
They are probably correct in that dismal numbers will result in some big meeting by mid-April, and some shake-up occurring with two or three big-name SPD national folks retiring, and some new people moving up.
The question is....will any of this really pump up enthusiasm within the SPD political circle and around the country.....for the two fall state elections?
My humble guess? No.
The SPD franchise name for several decades....was that they were about the common working-class German guy.....the guy who who built cars, drove a truck, baked bread at 3AM, and loaded planes with passengers and cargo.
With this whole discussion now in Germany centered on immigration, refugees, and asylum....the SPD hasn't exactly sat down with it's rank-and-file supporters and had some real discussion with the working-class supporters. They've worked the other way around.....telling the working-class guy what he ought to expect from them....the guys at the top or the intellectuals.
It would be curious to drag a hundred SPD enthusiasts.....not political players but the rank-and-file....into a room and have some real discussion from them....not the journalists, politicians or intellectuals. We might get a different assessment of the future and how to approach this whole immigration issue.
The Merkel Interview
It's rare that the German Chancellor (Merkel) appears on a live TV interview chat show in Germany. Last night was the exception.....ARD's Anne Will Show....at 9:45PM.
What came out are two key points.
Merkel readily admits.....there is no plan B on the immigration table. Then she admitted in certain words that Multiculturalism doesn't work, period.
When you stand back and look at the comments....there is a certain perception that there really wasn't a plan A.....to start with. Folks were hyped up over refugee boats sinking in the Med with black Africans onboard. Folks were hyped up over Syrian refugees. Folks were hyped up over poor Albanians. The list goes on and on. But none of this really equaled much of a plan....it was simply removing the door from the hinges and letting people flow through.
Multiculturalism? Intellectuals will talk for hours over the dynamics of it and why people need to accept it. Then you ask.....what exactly do you mean? Are we talking about a Turkish kebab cafe on the street? Or are we talking about North Africans running the illicit drug empire out of Koln? It's not a clear discussion topic. If you gathered a hundred Germans in a room and tried to engage on this....more than half would regard it as a topic way down on the list and a waste of time.
The appearance? It's timed to some degree to help with the March state elections and show some points on direction. Presently.....other than a decent win in the Pfalz....I don't see the CDU doing that well in the three state elections.
So, for roughly an hour.....the interview went on and you can basically say that you got a dose of reality. No one has been able to think of a plan B within this coalition government....so they are simply continuing in the same direction.....for better or worse.
What came out are two key points.
Merkel readily admits.....there is no plan B on the immigration table. Then she admitted in certain words that Multiculturalism doesn't work, period.
When you stand back and look at the comments....there is a certain perception that there really wasn't a plan A.....to start with. Folks were hyped up over refugee boats sinking in the Med with black Africans onboard. Folks were hyped up over Syrian refugees. Folks were hyped up over poor Albanians. The list goes on and on. But none of this really equaled much of a plan....it was simply removing the door from the hinges and letting people flow through.
Multiculturalism? Intellectuals will talk for hours over the dynamics of it and why people need to accept it. Then you ask.....what exactly do you mean? Are we talking about a Turkish kebab cafe on the street? Or are we talking about North Africans running the illicit drug empire out of Koln? It's not a clear discussion topic. If you gathered a hundred Germans in a room and tried to engage on this....more than half would regard it as a topic way down on the list and a waste of time.
The appearance? It's timed to some degree to help with the March state elections and show some points on direction. Presently.....other than a decent win in the Pfalz....I don't see the CDU doing that well in the three state elections.
So, for roughly an hour.....the interview went on and you can basically say that you got a dose of reality. No one has been able to think of a plan B within this coalition government....so they are simply continuing in the same direction.....for better or worse.
Australia and Germany
I've spent the last three weeks mostly in Australia (along with Singapore and Hong Kong).....call it a fact-gathering trip or just R and R.
Aussies have an immigration issue as well.
It should be noted.....that their government volunteer back eight months ago to take in roughly twelve thousand immigrants or refugees. To date.....they've accepted 26 total as of early February. Yeah.....26.
This generated a fair amount of criticism by opposition parties and they tried to use the Aussie news media to generate negativity over the low number. The chief reason for only 26? They require paperwork to be completed and a full-background check. You don't get a visa into Australia until this is done and your background verified. The odds that 12,000 will be accepted? Well....they will....but it might be 2022 before they get verified and accepted.
Criticism by the general public? No. This is what sixty-percent of Aussies prefer. Another twenty-percent will say that there has to be a front-door approach and maybe it ought to go faster but they don't want 'losers' in Australia.
The subject kinda came up at least eight times during my trip, and it surprised me that most people always answered the same way....they have a pretty good country and they intend to keep it that way.
What Germans might learn from the Aussies? There's some front door existing and no reason to pretend there isn't such a door. If you wanted a doorless entry program....like Germany has....then why bother even counting people or caring about the cost factor?
Aussies have an immigration issue as well.
It should be noted.....that their government volunteer back eight months ago to take in roughly twelve thousand immigrants or refugees. To date.....they've accepted 26 total as of early February. Yeah.....26.
This generated a fair amount of criticism by opposition parties and they tried to use the Aussie news media to generate negativity over the low number. The chief reason for only 26? They require paperwork to be completed and a full-background check. You don't get a visa into Australia until this is done and your background verified. The odds that 12,000 will be accepted? Well....they will....but it might be 2022 before they get verified and accepted.
Criticism by the general public? No. This is what sixty-percent of Aussies prefer. Another twenty-percent will say that there has to be a front-door approach and maybe it ought to go faster but they don't want 'losers' in Australia.
The subject kinda came up at least eight times during my trip, and it surprised me that most people always answered the same way....they have a pretty good country and they intend to keep it that way.
What Germans might learn from the Aussies? There's some front door existing and no reason to pretend there isn't such a door. If you wanted a doorless entry program....like Germany has....then why bother even counting people or caring about the cost factor?
Friday, February 26, 2016
Why AfD as a Political Party is Marginalized
Right now....if you talked up politics in Germany....the AfD Party is at the top of the discussion stage. This primarily revolves around the political build-up to the three March state elections and the hostility of Germans now over immigration and asylum issues.
The thing is.....if you took AfD as a true political party and brought up the other nineteen significant issues (the environment, economy, education, pension reform, medical reform, cost of living, infrastructure, etc)....the public has no idea of the rest of the AfD party platform.
For example, the AfD folks will say there is a Euro and monetary policy....yet from their page....it's blank for the platform itself.
Finance, taxation and pension reform? There is a page from their site for a position.....currently (on 31 January)....it's blank.
The privacy and legal platform? There's a page for it on their web site.....it's a very weak four-line comment.
Education, science and media platform? There's a page for that on their site.....which amounts to a five-line weak and marginal talk.
Environmental and agricultural policy, animal and nature conservation policy, consumer protection policy? Five lines.
Energy and technology? Nothing on the page as of 31 January.
Should this worry a German guy who is a AfD Party enthusiast? Yes.
To be honest, it's a party that is probably twelve months away from a legit platform situation where they can sit and talk at a public forum over a dozen subjects and contribute commentary about their position.
Right now.....when they get dragged into TV moderated forum....they are there strictly to talk about safety, security, immigration and asylum issues. That's it. Once the moderator has made the round around the parties present, and says it's time to examine other topics.....the AfD attendee is screwed.
This is the negative of this whole discussion with AfD. They are a party which simply isn't ready for prime time.....but because no other party crossed the line and was anti-immigration....they now get tons of support which they'd normally never see.
Would it be a shocker if they filled in the blanks and took positions on a dozen other platform issues? Maybe, but you have no idea how they stand on military obligations, trade, or relations with Poland or France.
This is the sad part about this trend. You have no idea what it'll get you in the end.
The thing is.....if you took AfD as a true political party and brought up the other nineteen significant issues (the environment, economy, education, pension reform, medical reform, cost of living, infrastructure, etc)....the public has no idea of the rest of the AfD party platform.
For example, the AfD folks will say there is a Euro and monetary policy....yet from their page....it's blank for the platform itself.
Finance, taxation and pension reform? There is a page from their site for a position.....currently (on 31 January)....it's blank.
The privacy and legal platform? There's a page for it on their web site.....it's a very weak four-line comment.
Education, science and media platform? There's a page for that on their site.....which amounts to a five-line weak and marginal talk.
Environmental and agricultural policy, animal and nature conservation policy, consumer protection policy? Five lines.
Energy and technology? Nothing on the page as of 31 January.
Should this worry a German guy who is a AfD Party enthusiast? Yes.
To be honest, it's a party that is probably twelve months away from a legit platform situation where they can sit and talk at a public forum over a dozen subjects and contribute commentary about their position.
Right now.....when they get dragged into TV moderated forum....they are there strictly to talk about safety, security, immigration and asylum issues. That's it. Once the moderator has made the round around the parties present, and says it's time to examine other topics.....the AfD attendee is screwed.
This is the negative of this whole discussion with AfD. They are a party which simply isn't ready for prime time.....but because no other party crossed the line and was anti-immigration....they now get tons of support which they'd normally never see.
Would it be a shocker if they filled in the blanks and took positions on a dozen other platform issues? Maybe, but you have no idea how they stand on military obligations, trade, or relations with Poland or France.
This is the sad part about this trend. You have no idea what it'll get you in the end.
Saturday, February 20, 2016
My "Unusual" German Story
At some point in the late 1990s.....I sat and was watching some German regional state-run network which was running a business-and-personal story episode where people would call in and relate unfortunate episodes that had occurred to them.
So, there's this German guy who calls into the show. He'd had this unfortunate episode occur.
For several years, he'd been talking about renovating his roof....but always looking over the cost factor. So one day, there's this ad in the local paper with all these new house tiles for sale, with a price noted and a cellphone number. An unbelievable deal based on the price listed....if it were true.
So he calls this number, and the guy tells some sob-story of a project that occurred and he'd over-ordered, so he had a whole trailer-load of tiles left over. Where he wanted to meet....was not his house, but a local fast-food parking lot. He noted....he wanted cash.
The two guys meet, and it's just like he said.....new bricks, name-brand deal on the back, upscale type, etc. The price? It was roughly thirty to forty percent off what they'd normally cost.
The two talked the price, and eventually the buyer even got another 200-odd Deutschmarks (the old currency) off the deal.
They shift all the tiles from the seller's trailer to the buyer's trailer. Cash is exchanged.....if I remember correctly.....more than 12,000 DM's (roughly 6,000 Euro by today's standards).
Days go by and the buyer finally has a roofer come by and check out the project, and then happily shows him the new tiles on the trailer.
The roofer inspects the tiles.....then grins. These are a particular Asbestos-type, which had been forbidden for sale for at least six to eight years, and no roofer would touch the job. As the guy tried to find any roofer to do the job.....same answer comes up each time.
The buyer now realizes that he's got tiles that can't be used. After months of sitting around.....he finally decides to give up and deposit the tiles at some local city-run garbage dump. They inspect the tiles....then write up the fee for asbestos tiles ....another hefty amount into the thousands. He didn't want to pay the fee.
So he drives the tiles back home. He makes the decision over the next year to slowly....tile by tile....dump them in dumpsters or garbage cans around the city. All illegally done of course. All would have gotten heavily fined if the cops ever figured out the whole episode.
So, there's this German guy who calls into the show. He'd had this unfortunate episode occur.
For several years, he'd been talking about renovating his roof....but always looking over the cost factor. So one day, there's this ad in the local paper with all these new house tiles for sale, with a price noted and a cellphone number. An unbelievable deal based on the price listed....if it were true.
So he calls this number, and the guy tells some sob-story of a project that occurred and he'd over-ordered, so he had a whole trailer-load of tiles left over. Where he wanted to meet....was not his house, but a local fast-food parking lot. He noted....he wanted cash.
The two guys meet, and it's just like he said.....new bricks, name-brand deal on the back, upscale type, etc. The price? It was roughly thirty to forty percent off what they'd normally cost.
The two talked the price, and eventually the buyer even got another 200-odd Deutschmarks (the old currency) off the deal.
They shift all the tiles from the seller's trailer to the buyer's trailer. Cash is exchanged.....if I remember correctly.....more than 12,000 DM's (roughly 6,000 Euro by today's standards).
Days go by and the buyer finally has a roofer come by and check out the project, and then happily shows him the new tiles on the trailer.
The roofer inspects the tiles.....then grins. These are a particular Asbestos-type, which had been forbidden for sale for at least six to eight years, and no roofer would touch the job. As the guy tried to find any roofer to do the job.....same answer comes up each time.
The buyer now realizes that he's got tiles that can't be used. After months of sitting around.....he finally decides to give up and deposit the tiles at some local city-run garbage dump. They inspect the tiles....then write up the fee for asbestos tiles ....another hefty amount into the thousands. He didn't want to pay the fee.
So he drives the tiles back home. He makes the decision over the next year to slowly....tile by tile....dump them in dumpsters or garbage cans around the city. All illegally done of course. All would have gotten heavily fined if the cops ever figured out the whole episode.
Friday, February 19, 2016
Risks of German Driving
There's a general guide for speeding fines in Germany, which was updated for 2016. The current fines?
These fines apply for any episode outside of city limits throughout all of Germany (local, state, federal road):
1-10 km over, 10 Euro fine
11-15 km over, 20 Euro fine
16-20 km over, 30 Euro fine
21-25 km over, 70 Euro fine,
26-30 km over, 80 Euro fine,
31-40 km over, 120 Euro fine,
41-50 km over, 160 Euro fine, 1 x months loss of license
51-60 km over, 240 Euro fine, 2 x months loss of license
61-70 km over, 440 Euro fine, 2 x months loss of license
Over 70 km past the speed limit? 600 Euro fine and 3 x months loss of license
When it says loss of license.....don't anticipate some sob-story or freaky explanation getting you off the hook. It's virtually impossible to avoid the fine or the loss of license. If your job heavily depends on you having a license....like a delivery guy? Your boss won't have any reason to help you out.
These fines apply for any episode outside of city limits throughout all of Germany (local, state, federal road):
1-10 km over, 10 Euro fine
11-15 km over, 20 Euro fine
16-20 km over, 30 Euro fine
21-25 km over, 70 Euro fine,
26-30 km over, 80 Euro fine,
31-40 km over, 120 Euro fine,
41-50 km over, 160 Euro fine, 1 x months loss of license
51-60 km over, 240 Euro fine, 2 x months loss of license
61-70 km over, 440 Euro fine, 2 x months loss of license
Over 70 km past the speed limit? 600 Euro fine and 3 x months loss of license
When it says loss of license.....don't anticipate some sob-story or freaky explanation getting you off the hook. It's virtually impossible to avoid the fine or the loss of license. If your job heavily depends on you having a license....like a delivery guy? Your boss won't have any reason to help you out.
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Germans Enthusiastic for the Common Good
This essay revolves around the common German theme that you see on a daily basis......avoidance of rule-breaking.
I hate to admit this detail about Americans....but bluntly, after 200-plus years....we have become a society....passionate and animated....to break rules. Germans? They are eager and spirited to obey rules.
You see this every morning on the trains and buses. A thousand Germans or non-Germans will enter a train and the audit guy will walk around to find three people who attempted to ride the trip with no ticket.
On my local bus into Wiesbaden....over 2015....I probably made the trip at least one hundred and forty times. Audits occurred on roughly ten-percent of the trips and I observed at least five or six people who got the fine (60-Euro now for a lack of tickets). I observed some 14-year-old teenage gal who likely pocketed the money that Mom gave her for the monthly ticket....having to admit no ticket on herself to the audit guy.
From all the regular and normal day practices that a German might engage upon.....the vast majority of the time....a German will not break the rules.
You want a dirty look.....go up to a crosswalk where the red-light exists for you the walker, and attempt to cross it while it's red, and there's some woman with a kid on the opposite side. You'll get a fairly nasty look as you cross against the red light.
Robbery, at least through the 1990s.....was a rare event in Germany. I admit it's escalated greatly in the past decade....but it's mostly all non-Germans who contributed to that.
Why this continued theme of obeying the law? I suspect to some degree that it started up in the Roman ages of Germany. Maybe the Romans themselves often broke their own laws.....but Germans eventually figured out that you were less likely to get into trouble or get beaten.....if you just obeyed the laws. Maybe this strategy is what survives on today.
Course, I will point out that just about every German who makes more than 50,000 Euro a year in salary is working hard to figure a gimmick to avoid taxation. But in some ways, I think they do that mostly for their common good, and the common good of the government (to avoid giving them too much money to spend). A German would grin when explaining this logic....saying his government just isn't capable of spending billions more on the BER (the Berlin Airport construction project) or thousands of other poorly planned infrastructure projects.
I hate to admit this detail about Americans....but bluntly, after 200-plus years....we have become a society....passionate and animated....to break rules. Germans? They are eager and spirited to obey rules.
You see this every morning on the trains and buses. A thousand Germans or non-Germans will enter a train and the audit guy will walk around to find three people who attempted to ride the trip with no ticket.
On my local bus into Wiesbaden....over 2015....I probably made the trip at least one hundred and forty times. Audits occurred on roughly ten-percent of the trips and I observed at least five or six people who got the fine (60-Euro now for a lack of tickets). I observed some 14-year-old teenage gal who likely pocketed the money that Mom gave her for the monthly ticket....having to admit no ticket on herself to the audit guy.
From all the regular and normal day practices that a German might engage upon.....the vast majority of the time....a German will not break the rules.
You want a dirty look.....go up to a crosswalk where the red-light exists for you the walker, and attempt to cross it while it's red, and there's some woman with a kid on the opposite side. You'll get a fairly nasty look as you cross against the red light.
Robbery, at least through the 1990s.....was a rare event in Germany. I admit it's escalated greatly in the past decade....but it's mostly all non-Germans who contributed to that.
Why this continued theme of obeying the law? I suspect to some degree that it started up in the Roman ages of Germany. Maybe the Romans themselves often broke their own laws.....but Germans eventually figured out that you were less likely to get into trouble or get beaten.....if you just obeyed the laws. Maybe this strategy is what survives on today.
Course, I will point out that just about every German who makes more than 50,000 Euro a year in salary is working hard to figure a gimmick to avoid taxation. But in some ways, I think they do that mostly for their common good, and the common good of the government (to avoid giving them too much money to spend). A German would grin when explaining this logic....saying his government just isn't capable of spending billions more on the BER (the Berlin Airport construction project) or thousands of other poorly planned infrastructure projects.
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Defining Freikorperkultur
Basically, for a German (particularly a eastern German), it's a word left over from the DDR era (before the Wall came down).
It means a free culture in terms of the body.....or you can walk around in the nude at a particular park or beach....without anyone really saying anything. Nudism? More or less.
For some odd reason, east Germans got into this culture during the Cold War years and it meant an experience of freedom.
To some degree....west Germans also had an open view on nudism.....but for east Germans....it's a BIG deal.
Surviving today? If you are from the eastern side of the country and over the age of forty....the theme or word probably survives to some degree.
One should not.....this has absolutely nothing to do with sexuality. It meant you'd meet with friends at some local lake....sip beer.....have some brats.....play volleyball or swim....in the nude of course, and just socialize. I realize for an American....it's hard to imagine this sort of behavior not having a sexual activity involved....but we are talking about Germans.
It means a free culture in terms of the body.....or you can walk around in the nude at a particular park or beach....without anyone really saying anything. Nudism? More or less.
For some odd reason, east Germans got into this culture during the Cold War years and it meant an experience of freedom.
To some degree....west Germans also had an open view on nudism.....but for east Germans....it's a BIG deal.
Surviving today? If you are from the eastern side of the country and over the age of forty....the theme or word probably survives to some degree.
One should not.....this has absolutely nothing to do with sexuality. It meant you'd meet with friends at some local lake....sip beer.....have some brats.....play volleyball or swim....in the nude of course, and just socialize. I realize for an American....it's hard to imagine this sort of behavior not having a sexual activity involved....but we are talking about Germans.
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Defining Kummerspeck
The pure definition is grief bacon. So, it's not a simple word.
A German would say that he's gone through some highs and lows, feeling very depressed, and eaten himself or herself to a hefty weight problem.....thus being in Kummerspeck.
It might be more used by the older generation than those around twenty or younger today.
UPDATED (with the "U")
A German would say that he's gone through some highs and lows, feeling very depressed, and eaten himself or herself to a hefty weight problem.....thus being in Kummerspeck.
It might be more used by the older generation than those around twenty or younger today.
UPDATED (with the "U")
Monday, February 15, 2016
Defining Gretchenfrage
Typically.....around ninety-percent of Germans.....you will never hear the term used....even in a forty-year span. So, it's not a typical word within most circles.
The pure definition? It is the question in a debate which finally gets to the core issue of the whole discussion or argument.
It's supposed to be mythical moment when the guy leading the argument or discussion.....starts to show his agenda to the discussion. A debate master would say that this is the turning point of the discussion.....when he stops the talk and finally notes what the the gretchenfrag of this whole talk is really about.
Original usage? It has to do with some of Goethe's works and this scene where a pact with the devil has been procured and there's some final talk about the whole reason for religion to be in this debate.
Intellectuals in Germany will harp on the usage of the tactic and why gretchenfrage is an important part of any solid debate. With the right gretchenfrage......you can shift a losing debate into a winning debate. At least, that's the idea of the concept.
Generally, my humble advice here.....if you've wandered into some pub and they've reached a point at the pub with several guys arguing and someone throws 'gretchenfrage' out there.....it's probably the right kind of bar for you, and you might want to just settle up and walk another block to a sports bar or old-geezer pub where they play spades.
The pure definition? It is the question in a debate which finally gets to the core issue of the whole discussion or argument.
It's supposed to be mythical moment when the guy leading the argument or discussion.....starts to show his agenda to the discussion. A debate master would say that this is the turning point of the discussion.....when he stops the talk and finally notes what the the gretchenfrag of this whole talk is really about.
Original usage? It has to do with some of Goethe's works and this scene where a pact with the devil has been procured and there's some final talk about the whole reason for religion to be in this debate.
Intellectuals in Germany will harp on the usage of the tactic and why gretchenfrage is an important part of any solid debate. With the right gretchenfrage......you can shift a losing debate into a winning debate. At least, that's the idea of the concept.
Generally, my humble advice here.....if you've wandered into some pub and they've reached a point at the pub with several guys arguing and someone throws 'gretchenfrage' out there.....it's probably the right kind of bar for you, and you might want to just settle up and walk another block to a sports bar or old-geezer pub where they play spades.
Sunday, February 14, 2016
Defining Verboten
Depending upon your daily affairs in Germany or things you might bump into.....the word verboten might get used a fair bit.
It basically means 'forbidden'. So it relates to a phrase which some Germans will utter: Das ist verboten. Meaning that's forbidden.
Not to be too cynical....but through the eyes of an American walking around....there are a fair number of things which are verboten.
Naturally, a German would quickly argue that point....noting speeds on the autobahn are usually unlimited, that sixteen year old kids can drink beer, and that nude swimming is allowed in a fair number of places.
Verboten things: bar-b-q's in city parks, passing on the right on the autobahn, carrying large sums of money across the border, letting your dog crap on a public street and you don't pick it up, driving a car barefoot, using the phrase 'du' when talking to a policeman, using the 'little-birdie-in-the-head' hand signal while insulting another driver, warming up your car for more than a minute on a cold January morning, etc.
To be honest, it's not a big long list of verboten things....it's just that Germans like to remind a non-German of the verboten things....in hopes that their new friend, associate, or lover.....won't screw up and commit a verboten thing.
When reminded of this verboten thing.....it's best to thank your girlfriend or associate, and just grin. You don't need to ask a lot of stupid questions or get into a forty-minute conversation about the verboten act. Just assume that the German culture spent years thinking about this, and came to a national consensus......this was something that needed to be forbidden.
Besides.....das ist verboten has a nice ring to it.
It basically means 'forbidden'. So it relates to a phrase which some Germans will utter: Das ist verboten. Meaning that's forbidden.
Not to be too cynical....but through the eyes of an American walking around....there are a fair number of things which are verboten.
Naturally, a German would quickly argue that point....noting speeds on the autobahn are usually unlimited, that sixteen year old kids can drink beer, and that nude swimming is allowed in a fair number of places.
Verboten things: bar-b-q's in city parks, passing on the right on the autobahn, carrying large sums of money across the border, letting your dog crap on a public street and you don't pick it up, driving a car barefoot, using the phrase 'du' when talking to a policeman, using the 'little-birdie-in-the-head' hand signal while insulting another driver, warming up your car for more than a minute on a cold January morning, etc.
To be honest, it's not a big long list of verboten things....it's just that Germans like to remind a non-German of the verboten things....in hopes that their new friend, associate, or lover.....won't screw up and commit a verboten thing.
When reminded of this verboten thing.....it's best to thank your girlfriend or associate, and just grin. You don't need to ask a lot of stupid questions or get into a forty-minute conversation about the verboten act. Just assume that the German culture spent years thinking about this, and came to a national consensus......this was something that needed to be forbidden.
Besides.....das ist verboten has a nice ring to it.
Saturday, February 13, 2016
Defining Die Realpolitik
In this case....die is the 'the' world....in German.
Realpolitik is this charming world which has to deal with German perceptions of an agenda in political circles....that has no connection to ethics, morals, or obligations. It comes out of the 1800s and the Prussian period where politics was concluded by an inner-circle (mostly the Kaiser and the military leadership), and it dealt with the power of authority.
Some Germans would argue that Realpolitik has evolved or changed into something totally different here in 2016. Some Germans would say that nothing much has changed in Berlin politics in the last hundred years.
If the topic comes up in some conversation between you and a couple of Germans.....it's obvious that your conversation has drifted out of safe territory of soccer, cooking, automobiles, or lawn maintenance. This might be the point where you pay for your beer and exit the pub.
Realpolitik is this charming world which has to deal with German perceptions of an agenda in political circles....that has no connection to ethics, morals, or obligations. It comes out of the 1800s and the Prussian period where politics was concluded by an inner-circle (mostly the Kaiser and the military leadership), and it dealt with the power of authority.
Some Germans would argue that Realpolitik has evolved or changed into something totally different here in 2016. Some Germans would say that nothing much has changed in Berlin politics in the last hundred years.
If the topic comes up in some conversation between you and a couple of Germans.....it's obvious that your conversation has drifted out of safe territory of soccer, cooking, automobiles, or lawn maintenance. This might be the point where you pay for your beer and exit the pub.
Friday, February 12, 2016
Defining Kaffeeklatsch
Kaffeeklatsch is one of those oddball German phrases that you occasionally hear and be used.
The definition? It's a group (maybe two, maybe five or six) of people who meet at a corner cafe or coffee house.....for a coffee and to swap gossip.
This could involve housewives, retirees, or guys on the way to work but have five minutes to sip a coffee with an associate.
The term gets thrown around by German journalists a good bit because it's where one or two percent of the German population get their daily opinions over German or international affairs.....or least people believe that notion.
The definition? It's a group (maybe two, maybe five or six) of people who meet at a corner cafe or coffee house.....for a coffee and to swap gossip.
This could involve housewives, retirees, or guys on the way to work but have five minutes to sip a coffee with an associate.
The term gets thrown around by German journalists a good bit because it's where one or two percent of the German population get their daily opinions over German or international affairs.....or least people believe that notion.
Thursday, February 11, 2016
Defining Sitzpinkler
For Americans, and I suspect a fair number of non-Germans.....it won't make much sense after I explain the term.....so pause and try to think German in this case.
A Sitzpinkler.....is a guy who has taken to the habit of urinating while sitting. It doesn't matter if it's at work.....at the train-station....at the airport.....while shopping.....or in the pleasure of his own home. He sits and urinates upon the toilet.....rather than stand.
Where this comes from? No one talks of the origin much in Germany. The general belief (at least from me)....is that when out-houses started to disappear around the beginning of 1900s.....men and women had to share an indoor bathroom. Guys naturally had been standing for thousands of years and German women quickly put great value upon an interior bathroom, and the floor around it. So a guy happening to "miss" (even just a little) and leaving an tiny bit of urine on the tile-floor....it was a bad thing.
As years passed, German women (in my humble opinion) opted for direct authority, and established boundaries. This boundary thing meant that a guy had to cooperate and sit when he urinated.
A number of German guys are particular and feel insulted when this thing comes up. When their associates discuss their habits and it gets brought up that they are Sitzpinkler-guys.....well....it's an insult to the normal guy who stands. He'll let the Sitzpinkler associate know that.
Last year (2015), some legal case in Germany came to an end....over a renter and damages assessed against the guy. The basis of the mess? The landlord said that the non-Sitzpinkler guy had shot some urine onto the high-value floor and damaged it over the long-term. The judge heard the whole thing and finally declared that guys had the right to stand.....so they could possibly miss the target and it wasn't worthy of paying damages on the tile.
A stupid topic? I tend to think so, but I'm a non-Sitzpinkler guy.
A Sitzpinkler.....is a guy who has taken to the habit of urinating while sitting. It doesn't matter if it's at work.....at the train-station....at the airport.....while shopping.....or in the pleasure of his own home. He sits and urinates upon the toilet.....rather than stand.
Where this comes from? No one talks of the origin much in Germany. The general belief (at least from me)....is that when out-houses started to disappear around the beginning of 1900s.....men and women had to share an indoor bathroom. Guys naturally had been standing for thousands of years and German women quickly put great value upon an interior bathroom, and the floor around it. So a guy happening to "miss" (even just a little) and leaving an tiny bit of urine on the tile-floor....it was a bad thing.
As years passed, German women (in my humble opinion) opted for direct authority, and established boundaries. This boundary thing meant that a guy had to cooperate and sit when he urinated.
A number of German guys are particular and feel insulted when this thing comes up. When their associates discuss their habits and it gets brought up that they are Sitzpinkler-guys.....well....it's an insult to the normal guy who stands. He'll let the Sitzpinkler associate know that.
Last year (2015), some legal case in Germany came to an end....over a renter and damages assessed against the guy. The basis of the mess? The landlord said that the non-Sitzpinkler guy had shot some urine onto the high-value floor and damaged it over the long-term. The judge heard the whole thing and finally declared that guys had the right to stand.....so they could possibly miss the target and it wasn't worthy of paying damages on the tile.
A stupid topic? I tend to think so, but I'm a non-Sitzpinkler guy.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Defining Torschlusspanik
There are some occasional German words that you will come across and they don't make much sense. Germans are fantastic creators of new words.....out of thin air.....to help define something.....yet they don't make practical sense.
So, we come to Torschlusspanik. In plain definition....it would mean a panic over the closing of the gate.
You'd hear this and typically think we are talking about Huns-Peter and Dieter standing in the parking lot of the factory, and suddenly realizing the gate to enter the factory is closing and they might get stuck in the parking lot.
Well.....no.
The image here you need to have is an older person (sadly we could be talking about someone thirty-four years old).....who are now worrying about themselves in terms of age, accomplishments, lifestyle, love, romance, permanent partner, kids, job happiness......and this imaginary gate is closing upon them. All of this would cause a panic.....which they translate into unhappiness and personal heartburn.
The fix? Get hooked up with the right gal or guy......get a kid or two.....and get on with the normal expectations of life.
No one talks much about how many Germans suffer from Torschlusspanik. It might be one-percent of society.....it might be five-percent.
This all leads to some business activity for match-making services around Germany.....where an agency takes your personal data and says they will help introduce you to some gal or guy who fits your profile. In terms of desperation and past failures in relationships......you go and do something that you probably vowed that you'd never do.....trust in someone to find a person who fits your background.
The odds of the word popping up in a conversation with a German? It's fairly low. You could hang out with a hundred Germans for years and never hear the word mentioned. You might be sitting at some pub where a female co-worker is approaching her forty-first birthday, and she's kinda negative and gloomy.....and has just enough alcohol to talk about something missing from her life, and then you ask if this is Torschlusspanik. She'll look at you and just give you this doomed look.....looking for some inspiration or hope.
So, my humble advice.....don't confuse Torschlusspanik with some gate at work. It's a different meaning.
So, we come to Torschlusspanik. In plain definition....it would mean a panic over the closing of the gate.
You'd hear this and typically think we are talking about Huns-Peter and Dieter standing in the parking lot of the factory, and suddenly realizing the gate to enter the factory is closing and they might get stuck in the parking lot.
Well.....no.
The image here you need to have is an older person (sadly we could be talking about someone thirty-four years old).....who are now worrying about themselves in terms of age, accomplishments, lifestyle, love, romance, permanent partner, kids, job happiness......and this imaginary gate is closing upon them. All of this would cause a panic.....which they translate into unhappiness and personal heartburn.
The fix? Get hooked up with the right gal or guy......get a kid or two.....and get on with the normal expectations of life.
No one talks much about how many Germans suffer from Torschlusspanik. It might be one-percent of society.....it might be five-percent.
This all leads to some business activity for match-making services around Germany.....where an agency takes your personal data and says they will help introduce you to some gal or guy who fits your profile. In terms of desperation and past failures in relationships......you go and do something that you probably vowed that you'd never do.....trust in someone to find a person who fits your background.
The odds of the word popping up in a conversation with a German? It's fairly low. You could hang out with a hundred Germans for years and never hear the word mentioned. You might be sitting at some pub where a female co-worker is approaching her forty-first birthday, and she's kinda negative and gloomy.....and has just enough alcohol to talk about something missing from her life, and then you ask if this is Torschlusspanik. She'll look at you and just give you this doomed look.....looking for some inspiration or hope.
So, my humble advice.....don't confuse Torschlusspanik with some gate at work. It's a different meaning.
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
The Flat-Rate Train Ticket
Very few people, even Germans, know of the Bahn (German railway) flat-rate deal. So, here is the idea.
You go and pay 379 Euro a month or 4,090 Euro for a year.....and you get a second-class card which entitles you to travel twenty-four hours a day....seven days a week.....fifty-two weeks of the year.....anywhere in Germany on the railway.
You don't mess around with tickets or stand there at the machine trying to figure out X, Y or Z. You have a card, and if the conductor stops you.....you show your card, and that's it.
You could stand up on a Monday morning....decide to travel from Frankfurt to Stuttgart.....spend two days there, then travel to Munich for a day, then return to Frankfurt by Friday, then on Saturday decide to travel to Hamburg. No cost other than the flat-rate you pay each month.
A normal guy would analyze this. With 379 Euro a month.....you'd typically spend half that amount for one full trip (round-trip) from Frankfurt to Berlin......on just one weekend. So you'd have to travel at least twice a month on long-extended trips via rail....to the point where this might make sense.
It's not for everyone, and you rarely hear the Bahn folks talk about how many people have such tickets. A first-class flat-rate? Yes, there is such a card for that too....roughly 40-percent more than the 2nd-class ticket.
If you were a reporter or writing articles over Germany....requiring continual travel throughout each month.....the ticket would make sense. For ninety-nine percent of society....no, it's not worth the cost.
You go and pay 379 Euro a month or 4,090 Euro for a year.....and you get a second-class card which entitles you to travel twenty-four hours a day....seven days a week.....fifty-two weeks of the year.....anywhere in Germany on the railway.
You don't mess around with tickets or stand there at the machine trying to figure out X, Y or Z. You have a card, and if the conductor stops you.....you show your card, and that's it.
You could stand up on a Monday morning....decide to travel from Frankfurt to Stuttgart.....spend two days there, then travel to Munich for a day, then return to Frankfurt by Friday, then on Saturday decide to travel to Hamburg. No cost other than the flat-rate you pay each month.
A normal guy would analyze this. With 379 Euro a month.....you'd typically spend half that amount for one full trip (round-trip) from Frankfurt to Berlin......on just one weekend. So you'd have to travel at least twice a month on long-extended trips via rail....to the point where this might make sense.
It's not for everyone, and you rarely hear the Bahn folks talk about how many people have such tickets. A first-class flat-rate? Yes, there is such a card for that too....roughly 40-percent more than the 2nd-class ticket.
If you were a reporter or writing articles over Germany....requiring continual travel throughout each month.....the ticket would make sense. For ninety-nine percent of society....no, it's not worth the cost.
Sunday, February 7, 2016
The Cinema
Germany has a unique feature which you don't see much in the US.....small-town cinemas. Oh, we used to have small-town theaters....but the bulk (probably over ninety-nine percent) have gone away.
Here in my village....up until the late 60's....they had a small cinema operation. It reached a point where they couldn't compete or reach enough profit.....so they shut down. If you go over the hill.....about a dozen miles away to Idstein, they've still got an old fashion cinema.
MDR (one of the regional public-run networks) did up a story about a month ago, and talked about the decline of such operations.
If movies are done in digital fashion, and you'd have to upgrade your small 'kino' if you wanted to continue getting movies to show. The average cost? Roughly 120-thousand Euro ($140k dollars). If you ran a two-room operation....it's a hefty amount of money.
Most operators will tell you that by the time they figure the cost of operation, heat, taxes, etc.....there's zero profit in the movie itself. Their profit is in the drinks and pop-corn. If you figure a hundred people might show up tonight, and each buy a popcorn and soda.....then your cut is probably around 300 Euro, but then you have to pay the two kids at the stand, and you walk away each week with seven-hundred Euro if you were lucky. All of this for an operation that consumes seven days a week, and at least six hours per day in operation and clean-up.
A dying thing? Unlike the US situation where new bumped-up theaters moved into medium-sized towns and were mega-operations with six to ten large rooms.....these small German cinemas don't fit that image. Oh, will note in the region at least five or six mega-kinos and they are popular with the public. The small cinema has some curious flare or design......where you want to sit back and admire the movie on a small screen.
If you live in a small German town where there is a local cinema.....take advantage of it and enjoy an old-fashion evening of entertainment.
Here in my village....up until the late 60's....they had a small cinema operation. It reached a point where they couldn't compete or reach enough profit.....so they shut down. If you go over the hill.....about a dozen miles away to Idstein, they've still got an old fashion cinema.
MDR (one of the regional public-run networks) did up a story about a month ago, and talked about the decline of such operations.
If movies are done in digital fashion, and you'd have to upgrade your small 'kino' if you wanted to continue getting movies to show. The average cost? Roughly 120-thousand Euro ($140k dollars). If you ran a two-room operation....it's a hefty amount of money.
Most operators will tell you that by the time they figure the cost of operation, heat, taxes, etc.....there's zero profit in the movie itself. Their profit is in the drinks and pop-corn. If you figure a hundred people might show up tonight, and each buy a popcorn and soda.....then your cut is probably around 300 Euro, but then you have to pay the two kids at the stand, and you walk away each week with seven-hundred Euro if you were lucky. All of this for an operation that consumes seven days a week, and at least six hours per day in operation and clean-up.
A dying thing? Unlike the US situation where new bumped-up theaters moved into medium-sized towns and were mega-operations with six to ten large rooms.....these small German cinemas don't fit that image. Oh, will note in the region at least five or six mega-kinos and they are popular with the public. The small cinema has some curious flare or design......where you want to sit back and admire the movie on a small screen.
If you live in a small German town where there is a local cinema.....take advantage of it and enjoy an old-fashion evening of entertainment.
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Coffee For the Soul
I typically don't chat a lot about coffee shops or bakeries in Germany. I've probably wandered into three-hundred of them during my time in Germany. There typically two types.....the 'cheapo' and the 'regular'.
You typically get a sweet roll of some type or a piece of cake.....with a four-star cup of coffee, then sit for ten minutes while sipping the coffee.
Most German coffee shops can serve a fairly decent roasted coffee....as good as Starbucks or Caribou Coffee. Germans kind of demand exceptional coffee and have done so for decades. For all the talk that people do over Starbucks.....it's mostly over the coffee....not the atmosphere. It's a couple of pictures on the wall.....some music....with a theme or character that is lacking.
Today, on my way out of Wiesbaden and heading back to my village....I departed the bus at a point where a small coffee shop on the corner of Bierstadter Strasse and Alwinenstrasse exists.
Two years ago, it was an small empty building related to newspapers and magazines. Someone picked up the building.....put a fair amount of money into the structure....new windows, paint-job, and exterior appeal. I'd never been there and had some time to waste.....so I stepped in.
The Living Bakery Cafe surprised me. Once inside.....it was like the image that you had of a real five-star coffee shop. At best, they could have handled twenty-five people sitting in the place.....with the kind of cushioned chairs that you don't see often.
In the background....jazz. It was that ambiance that you'd dream about for a coffee shop. A dozen-odd cakes lay there.....begging you to pick one up. Various sandwiches were prepared and ready to throw under some grill heater device. Friendly staff were obvious.
So ordered a coffee and cake.....sat down by the big plate-glass window....looking out at soft rain falling on the street and listening to some decent swing and ragtime mixed with various other tunes. My blood pressure probably dropped by ten-percent over ten minutes, and I felt like I was somewhere else.....somewhere far away and less hectic.
It's a small shop.....no great parking opportunities. It's along the main drag going into Wiesbaden but if you mentioned it to a thousand people.....fewer than a hundred probably have noted it while passing in the bus.
There's two small tables by front entrance way and it'd be a fine place in the summer period to stop for an afternoon tea or just to chill out with an espresso.
So, if you happen to be in Wiesbaden....along Bierstadter Strasse and Alwinenstrasse....needing some refreshing coffee, a bit of jazz to sooth your soul, and seeking to recharge your enthusiasm for life....then stop for thirty minutes and get some relief.
You typically get a sweet roll of some type or a piece of cake.....with a four-star cup of coffee, then sit for ten minutes while sipping the coffee.
Most German coffee shops can serve a fairly decent roasted coffee....as good as Starbucks or Caribou Coffee. Germans kind of demand exceptional coffee and have done so for decades. For all the talk that people do over Starbucks.....it's mostly over the coffee....not the atmosphere. It's a couple of pictures on the wall.....some music....with a theme or character that is lacking.
Today, on my way out of Wiesbaden and heading back to my village....I departed the bus at a point where a small coffee shop on the corner of Bierstadter Strasse and Alwinenstrasse exists.
Two years ago, it was an small empty building related to newspapers and magazines. Someone picked up the building.....put a fair amount of money into the structure....new windows, paint-job, and exterior appeal. I'd never been there and had some time to waste.....so I stepped in.
The Living Bakery Cafe surprised me. Once inside.....it was like the image that you had of a real five-star coffee shop. At best, they could have handled twenty-five people sitting in the place.....with the kind of cushioned chairs that you don't see often.
In the background....jazz. It was that ambiance that you'd dream about for a coffee shop. A dozen-odd cakes lay there.....begging you to pick one up. Various sandwiches were prepared and ready to throw under some grill heater device. Friendly staff were obvious.
So ordered a coffee and cake.....sat down by the big plate-glass window....looking out at soft rain falling on the street and listening to some decent swing and ragtime mixed with various other tunes. My blood pressure probably dropped by ten-percent over ten minutes, and I felt like I was somewhere else.....somewhere far away and less hectic.
It's a small shop.....no great parking opportunities. It's along the main drag going into Wiesbaden but if you mentioned it to a thousand people.....fewer than a hundred probably have noted it while passing in the bus.
There's two small tables by front entrance way and it'd be a fine place in the summer period to stop for an afternoon tea or just to chill out with an espresso.
So, if you happen to be in Wiesbaden....along Bierstadter Strasse and Alwinenstrasse....needing some refreshing coffee, a bit of jazz to sooth your soul, and seeking to recharge your enthusiasm for life....then stop for thirty minutes and get some relief.
The Missing 10,000
Over the last couple of days.....various European news sources (German, French, Brit, etc) have talked up this new item which Europol (the police agency of the EU) dug up in terms of statistics.
Ten-thousand (10,000) migrant children have disappeared in Europe since their registered arrival. This has all occurred within the past two years.
Five thousand of the group.....are suggested to be German-registered....and missing.
Elements of crime? Kidnapping? Use for exploitation?
I sat and watched this simply noted by the German state-run news last night.....barely noting it. If ten thousand total kids were missing from around Europe in two years....it'd be a national emergency. If five-thousand just alone in Germany were missing....it'd be a national emergency.
Curiously, you don't see posters up and any real cop effort.....nor Muslim parents crying junior missing or their dear "Mandy" who just walked off.
So I sat and pondered today over this story.
I've come to this belief.....the ten-thousand kids never really did exist in the first place.
I know.....that sounds stupid, but allow me to explain.
You are Hamad....a single guy leaving Syria or Iraq or Afghanistan, and discover through sources already in Germany that things go better if you have a family or kids. You got better living accommodations (you don't have to share a room with four guys who are single)......if you claim dependents.
So you sit and think over this, and a cousin offers to let you "borrow" one or two of his kids. Maybe he got here in Germany four months ago.....maybe a year ago.
You swing this deal. You get his son who is eight or nine years old and you show up to register with your 'family'. The wife is dead.....so you tell the naive German guy who pats you on the back and notes it's hard to raise a family without a wife.
So, they process your paperwork and you note you.....your son.....and then they work up living arrangements. Rather than share some place with five guys....you and your "son" live in a one-room place in an old military barracks area.
Days and weeks pass, and eventually....you put your 'son' on a train and return him to his actual parents. They are happy. You are happy. Meanwhile, the Germans sit and naively go and pay you for your family and ensure your living situation is a family-quarters deal....and not a single-guy deal.
Were all of the 10,000 that way? No. My hunch is that a number of the kids who were fifteen or sixteen years old.....got pretty negative over Dad's frustrations and life with the family, so they found a friend, and just left.
But the bulk of these.....maybe out of the 5,000 missing in Germany....my humble guess is that 4,000 of them are fake kids and weren't really existing (already registered in the network somewhere else).
You would think that the Germans would do some special identification and really work to ensure this doesn't occur. But the reality is that this wasn't exactly a rocket-science type project and they were just worried about problem A, B and C. The idea of fake kids? I'm pretty sure that the intellectuals on state-run TV would just stand there in shock when analyzing this issue and then realize how badly this was managed.
I am reminded years ago while in the US military, and I met "Sarge". Sarge had returned from South Korea with a wife, and moved off-base and had a great housing allowance. Along about the fourth year on that base.....it kinda came out that no one had met Mrs. Sarge.....ever. There was a marriage certificate from his base in South Korea, but there just wasn't any real evidence of Mrs. Sarge existing there in Arizona.
Eventually, the commander asked Sarge to bring Mrs Sarge to the base. He kinda refused and said she was visiting relatives. When would she return? Unknown said Sarge. This went back and forth for a year, until investigators came to find that Mrs. Sarge had legally divorced Sarge back a couple of weeks after getting the green-card in the US. No one was even sure that Mrs Sarge ever lived a single day in Arizona (our base location).
I think these 10,000 missing kids kinda fall into the same category. They simply ensure a certain benefits package and a marginal process fails to work properly.
Ten-thousand (10,000) migrant children have disappeared in Europe since their registered arrival. This has all occurred within the past two years.
Five thousand of the group.....are suggested to be German-registered....and missing.
Elements of crime? Kidnapping? Use for exploitation?
I sat and watched this simply noted by the German state-run news last night.....barely noting it. If ten thousand total kids were missing from around Europe in two years....it'd be a national emergency. If five-thousand just alone in Germany were missing....it'd be a national emergency.
Curiously, you don't see posters up and any real cop effort.....nor Muslim parents crying junior missing or their dear "Mandy" who just walked off.
So I sat and pondered today over this story.
I've come to this belief.....the ten-thousand kids never really did exist in the first place.
I know.....that sounds stupid, but allow me to explain.
You are Hamad....a single guy leaving Syria or Iraq or Afghanistan, and discover through sources already in Germany that things go better if you have a family or kids. You got better living accommodations (you don't have to share a room with four guys who are single)......if you claim dependents.
So you sit and think over this, and a cousin offers to let you "borrow" one or two of his kids. Maybe he got here in Germany four months ago.....maybe a year ago.
You swing this deal. You get his son who is eight or nine years old and you show up to register with your 'family'. The wife is dead.....so you tell the naive German guy who pats you on the back and notes it's hard to raise a family without a wife.
So, they process your paperwork and you note you.....your son.....and then they work up living arrangements. Rather than share some place with five guys....you and your "son" live in a one-room place in an old military barracks area.
Days and weeks pass, and eventually....you put your 'son' on a train and return him to his actual parents. They are happy. You are happy. Meanwhile, the Germans sit and naively go and pay you for your family and ensure your living situation is a family-quarters deal....and not a single-guy deal.
Were all of the 10,000 that way? No. My hunch is that a number of the kids who were fifteen or sixteen years old.....got pretty negative over Dad's frustrations and life with the family, so they found a friend, and just left.
But the bulk of these.....maybe out of the 5,000 missing in Germany....my humble guess is that 4,000 of them are fake kids and weren't really existing (already registered in the network somewhere else).
You would think that the Germans would do some special identification and really work to ensure this doesn't occur. But the reality is that this wasn't exactly a rocket-science type project and they were just worried about problem A, B and C. The idea of fake kids? I'm pretty sure that the intellectuals on state-run TV would just stand there in shock when analyzing this issue and then realize how badly this was managed.
I am reminded years ago while in the US military, and I met "Sarge". Sarge had returned from South Korea with a wife, and moved off-base and had a great housing allowance. Along about the fourth year on that base.....it kinda came out that no one had met Mrs. Sarge.....ever. There was a marriage certificate from his base in South Korea, but there just wasn't any real evidence of Mrs. Sarge existing there in Arizona.
Eventually, the commander asked Sarge to bring Mrs Sarge to the base. He kinda refused and said she was visiting relatives. When would she return? Unknown said Sarge. This went back and forth for a year, until investigators came to find that Mrs. Sarge had legally divorced Sarge back a couple of weeks after getting the green-card in the US. No one was even sure that Mrs Sarge ever lived a single day in Arizona (our base location).
I think these 10,000 missing kids kinda fall into the same category. They simply ensure a certain benefits package and a marginal process fails to work properly.
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
The Poll Story
I often talk of the complex issues over asylum, immigration and refugees in Germany.....and how it's too complex for most Germans to get a grip over the entire process.
Focus wrote up a fine (short) piece today that had to do with a poll and public opinion.
So, 63-percent of the Germans polled.....said there has to be a limit on asylum seekers/refugees (German law prevents that).
Almost nine out of ten polled said that a reduction of social benefits for refugees is necessary if they don't integrate.
Almost eight out of ten said that Tunisia,Morocco, and Algeria ought to qualify as safe countries and these asylum seekers in Germany need to go 'home'.
Almost seven out of ten believe the process of acceptance or rejection ought to be made there at the border as they enter.
Nine out of ten polled believed that acceptance of refugees because of war-time events ought to be approved. Even a majority of AfD voters (76-percent) agreed on the war-time status. Even seven out of ten said that for religious persecution can be used as a reason for German acceptance for asylum.
But I noted over at ARD (state-run Channel One).....they had an interesting poll as well. Eight out of ten Germans believe that the current government coalition is unable to control or handle the immigration and asylum crisis.
Confidence lacking? The odd thing is that state-run news journalists have done as much as they can to help form a positive public opinion about this episode. There's not much left in the 'tool-kit' for the political figures to repair this situation, except shuffle a couple people out and hope that there's no massive entry for 2016. If by June....there's 400,000 new refugees who attempt to enter Germany....it'll be a massive problem for the public to handle.
Focus wrote up a fine (short) piece today that had to do with a poll and public opinion.
So, 63-percent of the Germans polled.....said there has to be a limit on asylum seekers/refugees (German law prevents that).
Almost nine out of ten polled said that a reduction of social benefits for refugees is necessary if they don't integrate.
Almost eight out of ten said that Tunisia,Morocco, and Algeria ought to qualify as safe countries and these asylum seekers in Germany need to go 'home'.
Almost seven out of ten believe the process of acceptance or rejection ought to be made there at the border as they enter.
Nine out of ten polled believed that acceptance of refugees because of war-time events ought to be approved. Even a majority of AfD voters (76-percent) agreed on the war-time status. Even seven out of ten said that for religious persecution can be used as a reason for German acceptance for asylum.
But I noted over at ARD (state-run Channel One).....they had an interesting poll as well. Eight out of ten Germans believe that the current government coalition is unable to control or handle the immigration and asylum crisis.
Confidence lacking? The odd thing is that state-run news journalists have done as much as they can to help form a positive public opinion about this episode. There's not much left in the 'tool-kit' for the political figures to repair this situation, except shuffle a couple people out and hope that there's no massive entry for 2016. If by June....there's 400,000 new refugees who attempt to enter Germany....it'll be a massive problem for the public to handle.
The Language Story
I looked through German news on Focus this evening.....and here is this oddball story on languages.
This journalist went and interviewed an education expert.....Thomas Strothotte, language professor here in Germany.
The professor says that not only should Syrians and Iraqis learn German.....but German kids ought to learn Arabic.
"In this country should be added that the refugee children from the Middle East German and German children learn Arabic," was quote which apparently came out of Die Zeit over this idea.
All of this.....would lead Germany to be a true country of immigration and multi-culty (one of often heard expressions.....although most in the negative.
The weight of this statement? Frankly, it'd likely freak out about seventy-percent of parents now if their local school director or state education folks mandated this idea. What might catch on? Most schools all offer a minimum of English now, and I'd say that roughly fifty percent of schools will offer a second other language.....such as Spanish, French, Chinese or Latin. There might be a handful out there who teach Italian, Japanese or Russian. Maybe a dozen-odd schools would at least offer the option, and maybe get twenty-odd kids interested in this deal.
Upsetting the public? By some 'gut-Deutsche' individuals....political folks....and journalists hyping up this suggestion....they'd basically push another five percent of the public over to the AfD Party and the anti-immigration enthusiasm. Whether accidental or intentional.....it's stupid in terms of public response because they hear something like this and freak out.
This journalist went and interviewed an education expert.....Thomas Strothotte, language professor here in Germany.
The professor says that not only should Syrians and Iraqis learn German.....but German kids ought to learn Arabic.
"In this country should be added that the refugee children from the Middle East German and German children learn Arabic," was quote which apparently came out of Die Zeit over this idea.
All of this.....would lead Germany to be a true country of immigration and multi-culty (one of often heard expressions.....although most in the negative.
The weight of this statement? Frankly, it'd likely freak out about seventy-percent of parents now if their local school director or state education folks mandated this idea. What might catch on? Most schools all offer a minimum of English now, and I'd say that roughly fifty percent of schools will offer a second other language.....such as Spanish, French, Chinese or Latin. There might be a handful out there who teach Italian, Japanese or Russian. Maybe a dozen-odd schools would at least offer the option, and maybe get twenty-odd kids interested in this deal.
Upsetting the public? By some 'gut-Deutsche' individuals....political folks....and journalists hyping up this suggestion....they'd basically push another five percent of the public over to the AfD Party and the anti-immigration enthusiasm. Whether accidental or intentional.....it's stupid in terms of public response because they hear something like this and freak out.
This 5,000 Euro Limit Talk
It's come out in the last day or two....that the SPD Party (coalition partner to the CDU in the German government).....suggested a new economic policy. They want a law that says you can only barter cash money up to 5,000 Euro for a cash transaction (to buy something). After that.....you have to use a bank transfer or credit card.
Their public comment is that this would hinder terrorism.
Yeah.....that's pretty much all that they suggested in their public commentary.
I sat and pondered upon this scheme. No one in the CDU said a word, and it seems this was a shock suggestion which they weren't expecting. Commentary from journalists? Almost none except a few said it'd be practically impossible to enforce.
After many years of viewing how Germans do business....I've come to realize that a vast underground economy does exist. Some guys will talk up a massive house renovation project, which goes way beyond their 15,000 Euro budget. So, they find this guy who is willing to do the project on weekends and under the table. A 25,000 project gets accomplished by settling upon cash, and no paperwork. This cuts out the government, and the added pension tax or medical insurance.
Deals are often swung on used RVs where you look at the guy's 10,000 Euro asking price, and simply offer 8,800 Euro in cash. It's enough to entice a guy into accepting the deal. He takes the cash and quietly moves it later to some Luxembourg account (illegal if he doesn't report the account to the Germans).
Buying a car in cash? Typically....if you were talking about a dealer....it'll be a bank transfer required. But you run into various private characters now who have a three-year old vehicle which the blue-book might suggest 12,000 Euro, and they will swing the deal 11,500 Euro (in cash). They don't want the income to show up.
I would take a guess that roughly ten percent of German adults will absolutely be against this limit of cash transaction. It'll mean that the German government is continually in on the deal made and you risk a lot if you go around this 5,000 Euro cash situation. Course.....nothing exists to say that you conclude this deal in Austria, France, or Poland....thus avoiding the effect of the law.
Another ten-percent of the public will ask stupid questions over the necessity of this and why it has to be some German law.
The odds of the CDU agreeing to something like this? That's the thing about it.....they've said mostly nothing and usually.....they won't come around to agreeing to something like this until months have passed and they want something of equal value....so they trade passage of "a" to get "b". This passing the legality test with the German supreme court? That's something that I suspect will come up and perhaps even the EU court might step in to say it's not a binding EU standard.
Their public comment is that this would hinder terrorism.
Yeah.....that's pretty much all that they suggested in their public commentary.
I sat and pondered upon this scheme. No one in the CDU said a word, and it seems this was a shock suggestion which they weren't expecting. Commentary from journalists? Almost none except a few said it'd be practically impossible to enforce.
After many years of viewing how Germans do business....I've come to realize that a vast underground economy does exist. Some guys will talk up a massive house renovation project, which goes way beyond their 15,000 Euro budget. So, they find this guy who is willing to do the project on weekends and under the table. A 25,000 project gets accomplished by settling upon cash, and no paperwork. This cuts out the government, and the added pension tax or medical insurance.
Deals are often swung on used RVs where you look at the guy's 10,000 Euro asking price, and simply offer 8,800 Euro in cash. It's enough to entice a guy into accepting the deal. He takes the cash and quietly moves it later to some Luxembourg account (illegal if he doesn't report the account to the Germans).
Buying a car in cash? Typically....if you were talking about a dealer....it'll be a bank transfer required. But you run into various private characters now who have a three-year old vehicle which the blue-book might suggest 12,000 Euro, and they will swing the deal 11,500 Euro (in cash). They don't want the income to show up.
I would take a guess that roughly ten percent of German adults will absolutely be against this limit of cash transaction. It'll mean that the German government is continually in on the deal made and you risk a lot if you go around this 5,000 Euro cash situation. Course.....nothing exists to say that you conclude this deal in Austria, France, or Poland....thus avoiding the effect of the law.
Another ten-percent of the public will ask stupid questions over the necessity of this and why it has to be some German law.
The odds of the CDU agreeing to something like this? That's the thing about it.....they've said mostly nothing and usually.....they won't come around to agreeing to something like this until months have passed and they want something of equal value....so they trade passage of "a" to get "b". This passing the legality test with the German supreme court? That's something that I suspect will come up and perhaps even the EU court might step in to say it's not a binding EU standard.
Political Stumble Story
It was one of those odd events that you could not have predicted, and simply stood there in amazement.
The Hessen state government has their parliament here in Wiesbaden. Yesterday was a general assembly where the state Interior Minister (Peter Beuth from the CDU, Merkel's party) was to stand and give a pretty positive speech over all the good work of the cops here in Hessen. It was all scripted and note that the cops had done OK with the Islamic threat, crime, and maintained security of the state of Hessen.
Around fifty minutes prior to the speech....Bild (a significant German newspaper) published a major update....which related confidential documents leading back to the Hessen cops. It more or less suggested that crime statistics had been 'arranged' in some fashion to avoid finger-pointing going back toward immigrants or refugees.
All of this kinda unfolded quickly, with opposition groups (mostly FDP and SDP).....requesting a special meeting of the Civil Liberties committee later in the week. Whatever advantage or positive that Beuth was going to spin.....dissolved.
The general belief? The thing about crime in Hessen (mostly around Frankfurt and Wiesbaden, and lesser throughout the rest of the German state).....it's been escalating since the early 1990s. This escalation doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the Syrians, Iraqis, or the incoming crowd of 2013-2016. Most Germans have the belief it relates more to southeastern Europeans who simply drove in....established gang territory.....and evolved into house-break-ins and pick-pocket activity.
So, if you had a crime, and actually arrested some guy, and he's not a German.....the cop has to make a report and he has to say something about the guy's nationality. Just saying non-German.....doesn't say much and doesn't really help any statistics guy in noting increased problems.
If you arrested seventy people over a one-month period in Wiesbaden (just a scenario, not fact), and sixty-five were non-Germans....it might be interesting to note that. If forty of the sixty-five were Gypsy or Romanian or Bulgarian....it might be interesting. If only one was Syrian....it might be interesting. If the bulk of these were Russian kids between 18 and 21 years old, and part of a gang....it might be interesting.
But would you want to be the political guy standing there and saying that immigrants of some variety were a problem? The sad thing is that you might actually have some facts to assemble and say that none of the crime of the past year relates to Syrians or Iraqis.....but mostly to another ethnic group or cultural group. Would you even be willing to suggest this and clear the Syrians or Iraqis from prejudicial attitudes of Germans?
Finally, one might wonder.....this confidential document that Bild cited.....where exactly did it come from? The answer? I'd take a guess that the cops are peeved about the way that the statistics game is run, and someone finally said enough.....walking into a coffee shop and handing a copy of the document to a Bild reporter.
The Hessen state government has their parliament here in Wiesbaden. Yesterday was a general assembly where the state Interior Minister (Peter Beuth from the CDU, Merkel's party) was to stand and give a pretty positive speech over all the good work of the cops here in Hessen. It was all scripted and note that the cops had done OK with the Islamic threat, crime, and maintained security of the state of Hessen.
Around fifty minutes prior to the speech....Bild (a significant German newspaper) published a major update....which related confidential documents leading back to the Hessen cops. It more or less suggested that crime statistics had been 'arranged' in some fashion to avoid finger-pointing going back toward immigrants or refugees.
All of this kinda unfolded quickly, with opposition groups (mostly FDP and SDP).....requesting a special meeting of the Civil Liberties committee later in the week. Whatever advantage or positive that Beuth was going to spin.....dissolved.
The general belief? The thing about crime in Hessen (mostly around Frankfurt and Wiesbaden, and lesser throughout the rest of the German state).....it's been escalating since the early 1990s. This escalation doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the Syrians, Iraqis, or the incoming crowd of 2013-2016. Most Germans have the belief it relates more to southeastern Europeans who simply drove in....established gang territory.....and evolved into house-break-ins and pick-pocket activity.
So, if you had a crime, and actually arrested some guy, and he's not a German.....the cop has to make a report and he has to say something about the guy's nationality. Just saying non-German.....doesn't say much and doesn't really help any statistics guy in noting increased problems.
If you arrested seventy people over a one-month period in Wiesbaden (just a scenario, not fact), and sixty-five were non-Germans....it might be interesting to note that. If forty of the sixty-five were Gypsy or Romanian or Bulgarian....it might be interesting. If only one was Syrian....it might be interesting. If the bulk of these were Russian kids between 18 and 21 years old, and part of a gang....it might be interesting.
But would you want to be the political guy standing there and saying that immigrants of some variety were a problem? The sad thing is that you might actually have some facts to assemble and say that none of the crime of the past year relates to Syrians or Iraqis.....but mostly to another ethnic group or cultural group. Would you even be willing to suggest this and clear the Syrians or Iraqis from prejudicial attitudes of Germans?
Finally, one might wonder.....this confidential document that Bild cited.....where exactly did it come from? The answer? I'd take a guess that the cops are peeved about the way that the statistics game is run, and someone finally said enough.....walking into a coffee shop and handing a copy of the document to a Bild reporter.
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
BFF Political Party
We are in the midst of city elections here in Hessen.....which means all political parties are in some chatty feeling.
If you go by public-run TV.....there are the five or six significant parties, and then twenty-odd parties behind them.
Today, I'll pick up one of the smaller parties....BFF (Burger for Frankfurt Party)......which really translates into "People for Frankfurt".
They aren't really left, right, or such.....it's a party based on local vision instead of a party-like vision, with platforms which attract people. They've been around for two decades and do a fair but small showing in these elections.
Their themes?
First, they know Frankfurt and it's burb's grow at the rate of roughly 15,000 people a year. There's a lot of chaos at the city level to plan and project a pattern and sustainable future with the city. So city-planning is a big deal with this party.
Second, they want Frankfurt to appear more attractive. Frankfurt isn't exactly a city with attractions toward culture or beauty. It's a city built on business, travel (the railway station and airport), and skyscrapers. A fair number of the locals would like a better image, but that means creativity, funding, and something beyond just more parks.
Third, affordability. When you utter this word around most local Frankfurt residents.....they mostly grin and then quote their monthly cost for their apartment, and how much prices have escalated over the past two decades. Within the inner circle of Frankfurt (the first three kilometers)....affordability becomes a joke. This transition to affordability? It's a mystery how it'll happen without massive public funding....so this element of the political party is difficult to figure.
Fourth, more green. Generally, this means anything that is park space now....stays park space. These massive hundred year old industrial areas bought for transformation and urbanization? The commercial planners all have to incorporate green plans and park space into their plan.....if they want acceptance by the party, and the city council.
Fifth, climate change figures into the party theme. Right now, that means that solar is 'king' and any city building built....should have solar capability.
Sixth, Frankfurt residents deserve safety, security and cleanliness. This usually means prioritizing street renovation, hiring more cops, and pressing for more sanitation-workers or city-street sweepers. Naturally, this all costs more money. On the top ten comments of most Frankfurt residents....burglary thefts make the list and peeve a fair number of the locals.
Seventh, as traffic goes.....Frankfurt is only doing marginally well because of the massive use of public transportation within the city. BFF wants to promote more traffic planning and faster ways for people to enter/exit the city. This is usually where five guys sit at a pub and discuss this idea of a massive underground autobahn going east to west through the heart of Frankfurt and costing billions (it'll never happen, but it's always a great talk for a pub situation).
Eighth, integration must be driven. Oddly, BFF has a number of policy ideas which might attract people. They point out the original theme of the city from the Roman days....where it was multicultural but also driven to success because of a focused effort.
They want appropriate action when discrimination does occur. They also want the federal asylum/immigration policy to fit within the interest and opportunities of Frankfurt.....meaning they don't want ghetto creation or a large segment of society arriving and thinking there are unlimited job opportunities in Frankfurt (some will argue that there's always a job to be found in the city). The party also expects some return to normalcy....respect of law, and political ethics with those involved in the process. They are totally against the use of public sports building or gymnasiums for emergency refugee usage. They also expect the German federal government to be totally responsible for all related cost of refugees in Frankfurt. They also advocate that if some fails the immigration process....then relocation out of Germany ought to be a priority.
Ninth, they advocate more educational opportunities within the public sector of the city. Innovation and opportunities ought co-exist within their plans.
The BFF Party is mostly a group of people with some enthusiasm for the city and want Frankfurt to be a better place to live. You could look at the discussion and note that this is not a party that be a national front or even really a state front.....they just want a voice in city-planning.
Appeal across other party lines? That's the curious thing. A lot of what they advocate....would be acceptable to over half of the city population. But with twenty-five-odd parties in the running....so the odds of them getting more than one-percent of the vote are probably fifty-fifty at best.
If you go by public-run TV.....there are the five or six significant parties, and then twenty-odd parties behind them.
Today, I'll pick up one of the smaller parties....BFF (Burger for Frankfurt Party)......which really translates into "People for Frankfurt".
They aren't really left, right, or such.....it's a party based on local vision instead of a party-like vision, with platforms which attract people. They've been around for two decades and do a fair but small showing in these elections.
Their themes?
First, they know Frankfurt and it's burb's grow at the rate of roughly 15,000 people a year. There's a lot of chaos at the city level to plan and project a pattern and sustainable future with the city. So city-planning is a big deal with this party.
Second, they want Frankfurt to appear more attractive. Frankfurt isn't exactly a city with attractions toward culture or beauty. It's a city built on business, travel (the railway station and airport), and skyscrapers. A fair number of the locals would like a better image, but that means creativity, funding, and something beyond just more parks.
Third, affordability. When you utter this word around most local Frankfurt residents.....they mostly grin and then quote their monthly cost for their apartment, and how much prices have escalated over the past two decades. Within the inner circle of Frankfurt (the first three kilometers)....affordability becomes a joke. This transition to affordability? It's a mystery how it'll happen without massive public funding....so this element of the political party is difficult to figure.
Fourth, more green. Generally, this means anything that is park space now....stays park space. These massive hundred year old industrial areas bought for transformation and urbanization? The commercial planners all have to incorporate green plans and park space into their plan.....if they want acceptance by the party, and the city council.
Fifth, climate change figures into the party theme. Right now, that means that solar is 'king' and any city building built....should have solar capability.
Sixth, Frankfurt residents deserve safety, security and cleanliness. This usually means prioritizing street renovation, hiring more cops, and pressing for more sanitation-workers or city-street sweepers. Naturally, this all costs more money. On the top ten comments of most Frankfurt residents....burglary thefts make the list and peeve a fair number of the locals.
Seventh, as traffic goes.....Frankfurt is only doing marginally well because of the massive use of public transportation within the city. BFF wants to promote more traffic planning and faster ways for people to enter/exit the city. This is usually where five guys sit at a pub and discuss this idea of a massive underground autobahn going east to west through the heart of Frankfurt and costing billions (it'll never happen, but it's always a great talk for a pub situation).
Eighth, integration must be driven. Oddly, BFF has a number of policy ideas which might attract people. They point out the original theme of the city from the Roman days....where it was multicultural but also driven to success because of a focused effort.
They want appropriate action when discrimination does occur. They also want the federal asylum/immigration policy to fit within the interest and opportunities of Frankfurt.....meaning they don't want ghetto creation or a large segment of society arriving and thinking there are unlimited job opportunities in Frankfurt (some will argue that there's always a job to be found in the city). The party also expects some return to normalcy....respect of law, and political ethics with those involved in the process. They are totally against the use of public sports building or gymnasiums for emergency refugee usage. They also expect the German federal government to be totally responsible for all related cost of refugees in Frankfurt. They also advocate that if some fails the immigration process....then relocation out of Germany ought to be a priority.
Ninth, they advocate more educational opportunities within the public sector of the city. Innovation and opportunities ought co-exist within their plans.
The BFF Party is mostly a group of people with some enthusiasm for the city and want Frankfurt to be a better place to live. You could look at the discussion and note that this is not a party that be a national front or even really a state front.....they just want a voice in city-planning.
Appeal across other party lines? That's the curious thing. A lot of what they advocate....would be acceptable to over half of the city population. But with twenty-five-odd parties in the running....so the odds of them getting more than one-percent of the vote are probably fifty-fifty at best.
Berlin's Asylum Hotel Idea
If you go to the topic of immigrants and refugees in Germany.....there are about a hundred sub-topics. One of the sub-topics is shelter issues.
Germany had....state-by-state....an average amount of decent shelter operations until the 'surge' of 2014. They could typically handle 250,000 a year without a lot of hassle....with the BAMF usually approving or disapproving the visa within six weeks. Presently, with the 1.1 million from last year and a long waiting list (sometimes up to eight months) on the BAMF approval or disapproval....there isn't enough shelter or accommodation
Some folks have been rather creative. Over in Mainz....they had one political figure who suggested they (the state) rent a soon-to-be-retired cruise boat (this has yet to be accepted). Over the hill from where I live.....they rented a long-term deal with a modular building.
Yesterday.....I noticed via several news sources that Berlin had finally worked out a deal with a hotel chain (22 hotels within the city) which could be used for 10,000 refugees/immigrants per day.
The deal will revolve around 50 Euro per bed, per day. You can do the math.....1,500 per month.....18,000 Euro for a year. N-TV figured the deal to be worth 600 million Euro over the space of a year. The Berlin state folks didn't come out and say that the Federal government was paying the whole thing....but I'm going to take a guess that the massive bulk of this (probably ninety-percent) will be covered from the German federal pot of money.
How this works? There are a significant number of hotels in Berlin. If you ever go there....especially from May to October....as you walk around, you start to notice an awful lot of hotels. Last year, they reported a one-year statistic of 28-million visitors. This is one of the reasons why more and more hotels are being put up.
There's odd factor though about this visit statistic.....in a normal period....the hotels are only operating at 60 to 65 percent (N-TV's report). Using this deal with the 22 hotels....they'd be able to help the hotel chain bounce up to 95-percent occupancy. Profit? Well....at 50 Euro a night....there is probably still some minor margin of profit for the company managing the 22 hotels. It will help to show good numbers within their data sheets.
When summer comes? That's the curious thing that was left out of this report. Frankly...if I were running the hotel and May arrived....and I had the potential to charge my normal rate of 120 Euro a day (for a decent 3-star place) then I'd kick the refugees and immigrants out. No one says much from the city or hotel chain management side on how this higher summer period would work with this deal.
Presently, with the old hanger operation at Tempelhof Airfield and 50 gymnasiums being used.....they've hit absolute maximum occupancy with emergency accommodations.
What happens in March/April if the refugee crowd picks up with winter ending, and more asylum seekers start to arrive? That's one of those forbidden topics because no matter where you look in Germany.....it's full and no one wants to imagine another one million refugees arriving in 2016.
I went looking at the GCH Hotel chain in Berlin. Some are modern hotels....some are aged hotels. Pricing? Right now in January, I could get some of these rooms at 44 Euro a night....one offering was for 192 Euro a night (a historic hotel). Two of the operations are two-star in nature.....the rest are a mix of three star and four star. One of the hotels is way up on the Kurt-Schumacher Platz.....a pretty hefty distance from the center of Berlin.
For some reason, I don't see this hotel deal working well.
First, the minute that hotel guests start to notice that there are asylum seekers or immigrants in their hotel....it'll get noted in reviews (like Trip-Adviser or such), and then people will say it's an immigrant hotel. If you wanted immediate bad reviews....with people staying away in droves....getting a couple of reviews like this would start a bad trend.
Second, magnet for troublesome right-wing radicals? It would be stupid, but presently....there are some such nuts out there.
Third, it would be odd if some immigrants arrived and thought this was a long-term deal.....only to discover three weeks later that they have to move because the hotel has better-paying customers on the reservation list. So the refugee moves to the next hotel on the list....staying there for ten days before they hit some peak operating period, and thus forcing the movement again. No one brings up this scenario but I just don't see how you'd create a long-term stay situation.
Fourth, some type of stupid behavior by a couple of the immigrants and destruction of hotel property? I'm guessing that wording was inserted into the agreement.....where the city is responsible for all damages. No one said much about it......but a smart business guy would have written that into the deal.
While the Berlin political guys may be patting themselves on the back, and the hotel chain might have some extra money coming into the operation....I just don't see this as a positive and innovative idea. Maybe some hidden aspect of the deal exists where if business did go south.....the city government would offer to buy a hotel or two and make them into permanent refugee centers. If you had a hotel with a negative cash flow and no hope for recovery.....maybe this would be a decent strategy of getting the government to pay a premium price for a hotel of marginal value.
Bottom line? Maybe it is the obvious next step to take, but I don't see much success coming out of this idea.
Germany had....state-by-state....an average amount of decent shelter operations until the 'surge' of 2014. They could typically handle 250,000 a year without a lot of hassle....with the BAMF usually approving or disapproving the visa within six weeks. Presently, with the 1.1 million from last year and a long waiting list (sometimes up to eight months) on the BAMF approval or disapproval....there isn't enough shelter or accommodation
Some folks have been rather creative. Over in Mainz....they had one political figure who suggested they (the state) rent a soon-to-be-retired cruise boat (this has yet to be accepted). Over the hill from where I live.....they rented a long-term deal with a modular building.
Yesterday.....I noticed via several news sources that Berlin had finally worked out a deal with a hotel chain (22 hotels within the city) which could be used for 10,000 refugees/immigrants per day.
The deal will revolve around 50 Euro per bed, per day. You can do the math.....1,500 per month.....18,000 Euro for a year. N-TV figured the deal to be worth 600 million Euro over the space of a year. The Berlin state folks didn't come out and say that the Federal government was paying the whole thing....but I'm going to take a guess that the massive bulk of this (probably ninety-percent) will be covered from the German federal pot of money.
How this works? There are a significant number of hotels in Berlin. If you ever go there....especially from May to October....as you walk around, you start to notice an awful lot of hotels. Last year, they reported a one-year statistic of 28-million visitors. This is one of the reasons why more and more hotels are being put up.
There's odd factor though about this visit statistic.....in a normal period....the hotels are only operating at 60 to 65 percent (N-TV's report). Using this deal with the 22 hotels....they'd be able to help the hotel chain bounce up to 95-percent occupancy. Profit? Well....at 50 Euro a night....there is probably still some minor margin of profit for the company managing the 22 hotels. It will help to show good numbers within their data sheets.
When summer comes? That's the curious thing that was left out of this report. Frankly...if I were running the hotel and May arrived....and I had the potential to charge my normal rate of 120 Euro a day (for a decent 3-star place) then I'd kick the refugees and immigrants out. No one says much from the city or hotel chain management side on how this higher summer period would work with this deal.
Presently, with the old hanger operation at Tempelhof Airfield and 50 gymnasiums being used.....they've hit absolute maximum occupancy with emergency accommodations.
What happens in March/April if the refugee crowd picks up with winter ending, and more asylum seekers start to arrive? That's one of those forbidden topics because no matter where you look in Germany.....it's full and no one wants to imagine another one million refugees arriving in 2016.
I went looking at the GCH Hotel chain in Berlin. Some are modern hotels....some are aged hotels. Pricing? Right now in January, I could get some of these rooms at 44 Euro a night....one offering was for 192 Euro a night (a historic hotel). Two of the operations are two-star in nature.....the rest are a mix of three star and four star. One of the hotels is way up on the Kurt-Schumacher Platz.....a pretty hefty distance from the center of Berlin.
For some reason, I don't see this hotel deal working well.
First, the minute that hotel guests start to notice that there are asylum seekers or immigrants in their hotel....it'll get noted in reviews (like Trip-Adviser or such), and then people will say it's an immigrant hotel. If you wanted immediate bad reviews....with people staying away in droves....getting a couple of reviews like this would start a bad trend.
Second, magnet for troublesome right-wing radicals? It would be stupid, but presently....there are some such nuts out there.
Third, it would be odd if some immigrants arrived and thought this was a long-term deal.....only to discover three weeks later that they have to move because the hotel has better-paying customers on the reservation list. So the refugee moves to the next hotel on the list....staying there for ten days before they hit some peak operating period, and thus forcing the movement again. No one brings up this scenario but I just don't see how you'd create a long-term stay situation.
Fourth, some type of stupid behavior by a couple of the immigrants and destruction of hotel property? I'm guessing that wording was inserted into the agreement.....where the city is responsible for all damages. No one said much about it......but a smart business guy would have written that into the deal.
While the Berlin political guys may be patting themselves on the back, and the hotel chain might have some extra money coming into the operation....I just don't see this as a positive and innovative idea. Maybe some hidden aspect of the deal exists where if business did go south.....the city government would offer to buy a hotel or two and make them into permanent refugee centers. If you had a hotel with a negative cash flow and no hope for recovery.....maybe this would be a decent strategy of getting the government to pay a premium price for a hotel of marginal value.
Bottom line? Maybe it is the obvious next step to take, but I don't see much success coming out of this idea.
Monday, February 1, 2016
The German Pirate Party Decline
Back in 2006....the German Pirate Party went into operation.
If you asked anyone about the central theme of the political party....it was mostly around the areas of: information privacy, copyright reforms, patent reform, drug reform (marijuana approval), education reforms, limited electronic inspection or monitoring of citizens, direct democracy (e-voting on serious topics) and an unconditional basic income for citizens.
That's it. If you looked at the typical list of topics for the CDU, SPD or Linke Party.....the top twenty so to speak.....then the German Pirate Party doesn't really inject itself into this territory.
So success? Well....in 2009, they got around 850,000 votes in the national election. That's roughly two percent of the national vote. If you quizzed the polling folks.....most of the votes come from the 18-to-25 year old folks, or the over-30 group with geeky tendencies.
In regional elections....it's been more or less the same story.....roughly two percent of the vote. In the Berlin state vote of 2011....they took nine percent of the state's votes. For the Saarland of 2012.....they took around seven percent of the state vote.
Leading up to the 2013 national election....the national leadership of the party went through some rough episodes (internal arguments and disputes....some puffed up talk of scandals although it wasn't stuff that you'd typically see from the bigger parties). At some peak point....they were running almost near 13-percent across all of Germany for a brief time. Then....crap hit the fan, and the Pirate Party lost a significant amount of favor.
The best that people can say is that a fair number of the participants of the Pirate Party drifted back to the SPD, the Greens, and the Linke Party.
What went wrong? Journalists and intellectuals don't chat much about the Pirate Party or their stumbling points. I think they consider the party to be a weak device and limited to just a dozen-odd topics...things that get the under-25 crowd hyped up.
For this period of the March state elections (3 x states).....most people give them a 2-percent polling position in each state.
The odd factor is that none of the big parties in Germany really pick up any of these topics that the Pirate Party specializes in and hypes.....so their membership can't find a better platform or a better candidate. Presently, the Pirates and Green Party are the only ones advocating for marijuana approval and open sales......both topics that ten to twenty percent of society would like to see occur.
If you bring up internet privacy concerns, and hype it as your top priority.....then the Pirates are the only ones with that topic in every conversation.
The sad thing is that they really need a couple of tough political minds to come in, and organize the party.....with central themes that are easily sold to the under-25 crowd. They need a platform on the economy, immigration, pension reform, medical insurance reform, etc. They could easily go to a 12-percent point.....if they just recruited some brighter party leadership and reformed their message.
If you asked anyone about the central theme of the political party....it was mostly around the areas of: information privacy, copyright reforms, patent reform, drug reform (marijuana approval), education reforms, limited electronic inspection or monitoring of citizens, direct democracy (e-voting on serious topics) and an unconditional basic income for citizens.
That's it. If you looked at the typical list of topics for the CDU, SPD or Linke Party.....the top twenty so to speak.....then the German Pirate Party doesn't really inject itself into this territory.
So success? Well....in 2009, they got around 850,000 votes in the national election. That's roughly two percent of the national vote. If you quizzed the polling folks.....most of the votes come from the 18-to-25 year old folks, or the over-30 group with geeky tendencies.
In regional elections....it's been more or less the same story.....roughly two percent of the vote. In the Berlin state vote of 2011....they took nine percent of the state's votes. For the Saarland of 2012.....they took around seven percent of the state vote.
Leading up to the 2013 national election....the national leadership of the party went through some rough episodes (internal arguments and disputes....some puffed up talk of scandals although it wasn't stuff that you'd typically see from the bigger parties). At some peak point....they were running almost near 13-percent across all of Germany for a brief time. Then....crap hit the fan, and the Pirate Party lost a significant amount of favor.
The best that people can say is that a fair number of the participants of the Pirate Party drifted back to the SPD, the Greens, and the Linke Party.
What went wrong? Journalists and intellectuals don't chat much about the Pirate Party or their stumbling points. I think they consider the party to be a weak device and limited to just a dozen-odd topics...things that get the under-25 crowd hyped up.
For this period of the March state elections (3 x states).....most people give them a 2-percent polling position in each state.
The odd factor is that none of the big parties in Germany really pick up any of these topics that the Pirate Party specializes in and hypes.....so their membership can't find a better platform or a better candidate. Presently, the Pirates and Green Party are the only ones advocating for marijuana approval and open sales......both topics that ten to twenty percent of society would like to see occur.
If you bring up internet privacy concerns, and hype it as your top priority.....then the Pirates are the only ones with that topic in every conversation.
The sad thing is that they really need a couple of tough political minds to come in, and organize the party.....with central themes that are easily sold to the under-25 crowd. They need a platform on the economy, immigration, pension reform, medical insurance reform, etc. They could easily go to a 12-percent point.....if they just recruited some brighter party leadership and reformed their message.
The Shooting Idea and the Better Solution
Late last week in Germany.....one of the AfD Party players (the anti-immigration party).....did a piece on the idea of border control in Germany having the ability to shoot immigrants trying to cross the German border.
Naturally, over the weekend....journalists, intellectuals and all opposition parties freaked out and went nuts over the suggestion that guns might be used on people crossing the German border.
I sat and pondered over this whole idea, and necessity of a solution.
Historically.....the only time that German border control thugs ever used guns to shoot.....was in the DDR days (1945 to 1989) when East German citizens tried to escape the DDR and go into West Germany. So in effect, it was DDR cops/troops shooting their own people. You can imagine how well this went and how angry folks got over the behavior.
So you look down at Bavaria and ask yourself about the people walking around in the woods there. I've been there in Bavaria on a number of occasions and realize there are tens of thousands of tourists walking the trails of Bavaria on a daily basis.....and crossing the border in Austria or Switzerland without realizing it.
The last thing on Earth that you'd really desire is some German border control guy shouting some German phrase at two gay Texans who accidentally crossed over into Austria and are trying to hike back to the right trail. This shooting would anger a bunch of gay folks and a bunch of Texans.
Berlin would get pretty frustrated about this and then start drifting to the Barney-solution....handing one bullet to each border control guy, similar to what Andy always did with Barney.
The thing is.....once you start a more aggressive behavior by the border control folks....where exactly does it end? If you shoot a dozen folks.....who pays for medical issues and hospital time?
So, I've sat and pondered this a while, and have a fix that might work in an easier fashion.
You start with three basic visas, and each having a different effect.
Visa One is only for people who want a economic visa.....meaning they just want to come and work in Germany and they aren't from the EU countries. You limit this group to strictly 100,000 a year. Up front.....you let everyone know that they can only apply for this visa while in a non-German state and only at a German embassy. This visa also requires you to define your occupation, your skill, your craftsmanship certificate, your education and your past crime behavior. This visa will take four to six months for approval and you only enter if you have the skill areas that benefit Germany. If you were cleaning toilets in Pakistan or unloading garbage trucks in Egypt.....it's a zero percent chance you will get this visa.
If someone shows up in Germany and tries to claim Visa application there....they get refused, and sent out of the country immediately. If someone tries to rent a house or tries to work under the table without Visa One.....they get sent out immediately, without any review.
Visa One means you get twelve months of German housing, shelter and food.....a couple of German classes and one integration class.....then you need to get a job. You get five years on this visa....with no welfare authorized for the whole five years, and you promise to leave if you break the law (felony conviction of any type). At the end of five years on this visa.....if you were still employed and showing integration....you'd get an invitation to stay.
The odd factor to Visa One would be that you'd pay a one-percent tax on your paycheck to the government for the whole five years as part of your pay-back for their help in the beginning.
Visa Two would be for folks married to Germans, doctors, or nurses (critical fields now in Germany). No limits. It's a five-year visa as well, with the language and integration classes required. No felony convictions would be part of this episode. If you worked, you'd also pay the one-percent tax on your pay as well.
Visa Three would be for war-time refugees (like for Syrians and Iraqis). This visa would be a single one-year visa and you'd be limited to a refugee camp in Germany, with shelter and food provided. For any country to be listed on Germany's friendly list.....it means Germany is active on ending the war and getting people back there. Without that certification....you don't get access to the GErman war-time refugee status.
Numbers for visa Three? I'd probably limit it to 150,000 a year and no more than 400,000 in the country under this situation.
Some German intellectuals will say that German law forbids a limit. When the idiot says that.....ask him if Germany could handle eight million war refugees coming from forty-odd countries and how that would work. He'll just grin because he knows there really is a limit.....if you think about it.
For all those other people past the number for visa One, Two and Three? No registration....no support, no shelter, no jobs, nothing. You can be nice and say there's an opportunity for next year, but you'd have to apply outside of the country.
For the gay foreign guys and the Christians in Muslim countries? You could invent another visa just for them, and state numbers per year. The problem I see is a bunch of guys would run up and claim they were gay Iraqis who'd be prosecuted by the Muslims in Iraq if they stayed. Oddly, after six months in Germany....the visa'ed gay Iraqi would be noted as having various relations with German or other women....and German intellectuals would spend years analyzing how they got straight so quickly.
At some point, if you use the wild and crazy party scenario....you can only hold a decent party in a 70-square meter apartment with about thirty people. Once you have fifty people in the apartment, you start to realize that it just won't be the great party you envisioned....and at sixty people....it's just one-star affair. That's why the current German situation hasn't gone that well, and people have started to ask stupid questions.
I'm not a German and I personally don't care what happens in this whole thing. But it's rather stupid for Germany to irk half the population and trigger some right-wing movement to occur.....just because of stupidity in planning and executing a marginal plan with no hope for real success.
Naturally, over the weekend....journalists, intellectuals and all opposition parties freaked out and went nuts over the suggestion that guns might be used on people crossing the German border.
I sat and pondered over this whole idea, and necessity of a solution.
Historically.....the only time that German border control thugs ever used guns to shoot.....was in the DDR days (1945 to 1989) when East German citizens tried to escape the DDR and go into West Germany. So in effect, it was DDR cops/troops shooting their own people. You can imagine how well this went and how angry folks got over the behavior.
So you look down at Bavaria and ask yourself about the people walking around in the woods there. I've been there in Bavaria on a number of occasions and realize there are tens of thousands of tourists walking the trails of Bavaria on a daily basis.....and crossing the border in Austria or Switzerland without realizing it.
The last thing on Earth that you'd really desire is some German border control guy shouting some German phrase at two gay Texans who accidentally crossed over into Austria and are trying to hike back to the right trail. This shooting would anger a bunch of gay folks and a bunch of Texans.
Berlin would get pretty frustrated about this and then start drifting to the Barney-solution....handing one bullet to each border control guy, similar to what Andy always did with Barney.
The thing is.....once you start a more aggressive behavior by the border control folks....where exactly does it end? If you shoot a dozen folks.....who pays for medical issues and hospital time?
So, I've sat and pondered this a while, and have a fix that might work in an easier fashion.
You start with three basic visas, and each having a different effect.
Visa One is only for people who want a economic visa.....meaning they just want to come and work in Germany and they aren't from the EU countries. You limit this group to strictly 100,000 a year. Up front.....you let everyone know that they can only apply for this visa while in a non-German state and only at a German embassy. This visa also requires you to define your occupation, your skill, your craftsmanship certificate, your education and your past crime behavior. This visa will take four to six months for approval and you only enter if you have the skill areas that benefit Germany. If you were cleaning toilets in Pakistan or unloading garbage trucks in Egypt.....it's a zero percent chance you will get this visa.
If someone shows up in Germany and tries to claim Visa application there....they get refused, and sent out of the country immediately. If someone tries to rent a house or tries to work under the table without Visa One.....they get sent out immediately, without any review.
Visa One means you get twelve months of German housing, shelter and food.....a couple of German classes and one integration class.....then you need to get a job. You get five years on this visa....with no welfare authorized for the whole five years, and you promise to leave if you break the law (felony conviction of any type). At the end of five years on this visa.....if you were still employed and showing integration....you'd get an invitation to stay.
The odd factor to Visa One would be that you'd pay a one-percent tax on your paycheck to the government for the whole five years as part of your pay-back for their help in the beginning.
Visa Two would be for folks married to Germans, doctors, or nurses (critical fields now in Germany). No limits. It's a five-year visa as well, with the language and integration classes required. No felony convictions would be part of this episode. If you worked, you'd also pay the one-percent tax on your pay as well.
Visa Three would be for war-time refugees (like for Syrians and Iraqis). This visa would be a single one-year visa and you'd be limited to a refugee camp in Germany, with shelter and food provided. For any country to be listed on Germany's friendly list.....it means Germany is active on ending the war and getting people back there. Without that certification....you don't get access to the GErman war-time refugee status.
Numbers for visa Three? I'd probably limit it to 150,000 a year and no more than 400,000 in the country under this situation.
Some German intellectuals will say that German law forbids a limit. When the idiot says that.....ask him if Germany could handle eight million war refugees coming from forty-odd countries and how that would work. He'll just grin because he knows there really is a limit.....if you think about it.
For all those other people past the number for visa One, Two and Three? No registration....no support, no shelter, no jobs, nothing. You can be nice and say there's an opportunity for next year, but you'd have to apply outside of the country.
For the gay foreign guys and the Christians in Muslim countries? You could invent another visa just for them, and state numbers per year. The problem I see is a bunch of guys would run up and claim they were gay Iraqis who'd be prosecuted by the Muslims in Iraq if they stayed. Oddly, after six months in Germany....the visa'ed gay Iraqi would be noted as having various relations with German or other women....and German intellectuals would spend years analyzing how they got straight so quickly.
At some point, if you use the wild and crazy party scenario....you can only hold a decent party in a 70-square meter apartment with about thirty people. Once you have fifty people in the apartment, you start to realize that it just won't be the great party you envisioned....and at sixty people....it's just one-star affair. That's why the current German situation hasn't gone that well, and people have started to ask stupid questions.
I'm not a German and I personally don't care what happens in this whole thing. But it's rather stupid for Germany to irk half the population and trigger some right-wing movement to occur.....just because of stupidity in planning and executing a marginal plan with no hope for real success.
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