Saturday, December 3, 2016

German Political Landscape at the end of 2016

Channel Two (ZDF) has a political show and they do a fair amount of polling across Germany.  So last week, they did the poll on political voting (if there was an election).

With Merkel's announcement that she will be the candidate for the CDU.....the CDU now sits at 36-percent.  That's a rise of two-percent since the last time and the unknown factor if she'd run or not.

The SPD?  They slide one-percent to 21-percent.  It's a weak point for them.

The Greens?  11-percent, sliding two percent over the last poll.

The Linke Party?  Sitting at 10-percent.

The FDP?  Sitting at a flat 5-percent.  They need that as a make it into the Bundestag.

And the AfD?  They sit at 13-percent.

Some journalists could look at this and note that Merkel's position is strong and if some points could be trimmed off the AfD.....that this partnership with the CDU/CSU and Greens would be possible after this next national election (Sep, 2017).

Some strong hints have come from the CSU in the past month over two senstive topics.  First, they want a maximum limit on refugees per year (200,000)......which Merkel will not agree to.  This could indicate problems in the CSU sharing their Bavarian votes.  The second problem is that the CSU has strongly hinted that it really doesn't care to partner up with the Green Party.  Both of these issues would be enough to carve off the CSU vote and make it a slightly difficult election in the end.

If the CSU left?  The CDU could still win, and partner with the FDP and Greens.  The FDP and Greens would both need a strong showing....with the FDP getting a minimum of 5-percent of the national vote.  I suspect the Greens would have to have at least one or two points more than what they have now.

On the positive side.....a lot of independent voters are happier now....knowing Merkel will be the chancellor candidate for the CDU.

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