I sat and watched last night a German news piece off ARD (Channel One). The topic of this three to four minute piece....the end of the coal era in Germany (set by the government (CDU and SPD cooperating) to the period of 2038). This is in some way an effort to 'SAVE' Germany. Folks within the environmental cause feel awful proud that the coal industry is to die off.
But there are some issues.
Some folks within the right-of-center group (the CDU, Merkel's party) have been reading over the coal commission ideas to help the area (NW Germany) affected. In their mind, the proposals are mostly a flush of billions (of Euro) into a pit, with limited to marginal payback.
It would appear that a pretty fair number of CDU Party members (maybe up to half of them) just don't believe in the coalition plans to shut down the coal industry. The accompanying idea of tax revenue being flipped around to create some alternate industry and jobs market? It's almost laughed at. You can probably use eastern Germany as an example here.....where tens of billions have flowed in and simply not created jobs.
Adding to this mess....there's speculation of electricity costs for the public going up after the coal-fired plants shut down. Some folks are already calculating that electrical production will simply shift out of Germany.....to some neighboring state where they will have coal plants, and sell power at hefty prices back to the Germans.
Right now on the books.....there's forty billion Euro set to flow into the coal regions. Some of the plans for use of the money? Faster internet, new rail infrastructure, research institutes. Will it equal new jobs? Unknown.
The odds that this coal shutdown will be stopped? I'd suggest right now....zero chance. Where does the forty billion Euro come from? Best not to answer that (more taxation). The odds of Germans buying coal-produced electricity from Poland, Czech or Hungary? I'd give that a 100-percent chance as you approach 2038. A smart investor would pour money into Polish electrical stock over the next decade. It wouldn't surprise me if a third of all German power consumed shifts to production outside of Germany.
All of this, if you add it up....means more costs for the German consumer and escalating prices for just about everything produced or sold in Germany.
Thursday, May 30, 2019
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
School Story
Since the early part of 2019, we've had this 'Fridays for the Future' act by German school kids.....walking out of classes at mid-day on Friday, in support of environmental action against climate change. Surprising most folks....the Chancellor has been supportive of the kids, and a number of political folks actively encourage them.
Well....over in the NW section of Berlin (Wedding is the suburb)....the local gymnasium school (the school for the more capable kids) has sent out some notices to kids in the 9th/10th grade, and told the the 13 most 'noted' kids with absences.....that if they skip one more Friday afternoon of classes.....they will not be graduating onto the next class. Yes, the school is prepared to fail those 13 kids.
The reason why? There are some subjects which only occur once a week, and that period (up to two hours)....might be on Fridays. If you failed to be at the class....you fail out.
Legally, all of these schools with affected students.....should be sending out the notices. My humble guess is that most are trying to avoid this discussion.
If they fail the kids? Well, I suspect lawyers are standing by to help but school regulation will be hard to beat.
What will the 13 kids do? I would imagine that they will all show up and be there this Friday, and be fairly hostile toward the instructor....getting themselves onto another list for bad behavior.
Well....over in the NW section of Berlin (Wedding is the suburb)....the local gymnasium school (the school for the more capable kids) has sent out some notices to kids in the 9th/10th grade, and told the the 13 most 'noted' kids with absences.....that if they skip one more Friday afternoon of classes.....they will not be graduating onto the next class. Yes, the school is prepared to fail those 13 kids.
The reason why? There are some subjects which only occur once a week, and that period (up to two hours)....might be on Fridays. If you failed to be at the class....you fail out.
Legally, all of these schools with affected students.....should be sending out the notices. My humble guess is that most are trying to avoid this discussion.
If they fail the kids? Well, I suspect lawyers are standing by to help but school regulation will be hard to beat.
What will the 13 kids do? I would imagine that they will all show up and be there this Friday, and be fairly hostile toward the instructor....getting themselves onto another list for bad behavior.
BREXIT: The Endgame?
Most Brits will say that they figured PM May would have been gone either shortly after Christmas of 2018....and suggest they are surprised that she made it this far.
Looking at the mess left now.....I will offer these five observations:
1. The new PM selection process is solely within the senior committee, and they will whittle this down to two choices, and the party members will vote on them. Boris Johnson, the obvious 'please exit today' guy? I don't think he'll be among the final two choices.....mosty because the bulk of party members in the Parliament want a deal.....which the EU can't deliver, and they don't want a no-deal exit (guaranteed by Johnson by mid-fall of this year).
2. The next PM....likely NOT Johnson....will be a card-holder only, and likely will resign by spring of 2020.
3. The Tory Party and the Labour Party.....I would suggest....are finished by the end of 2019.
4. The UK still in the EU at the beginning of 2020? Yes. And the EU will be standing there and just shaking their head because this in and out status is a topic that simply won't go away.
5. The BREXIT Party will be around, and when the national election is finally held....they will take around 40-percent of the vote. Whether you like it or not.....Nigel Farage will eventually be PM of England, but there will still be enough opposition votes to prevent the exit from the EU.
So, believe it or not....there is no endgame.....it just continues on.
Looking at the mess left now.....I will offer these five observations:
1. The new PM selection process is solely within the senior committee, and they will whittle this down to two choices, and the party members will vote on them. Boris Johnson, the obvious 'please exit today' guy? I don't think he'll be among the final two choices.....mosty because the bulk of party members in the Parliament want a deal.....which the EU can't deliver, and they don't want a no-deal exit (guaranteed by Johnson by mid-fall of this year).
2. The next PM....likely NOT Johnson....will be a card-holder only, and likely will resign by spring of 2020.
3. The Tory Party and the Labour Party.....I would suggest....are finished by the end of 2019.
4. The UK still in the EU at the beginning of 2020? Yes. And the EU will be standing there and just shaking their head because this in and out status is a topic that simply won't go away.
5. The BREXIT Party will be around, and when the national election is finally held....they will take around 40-percent of the vote. Whether you like it or not.....Nigel Farage will eventually be PM of England, but there will still be enough opposition votes to prevent the exit from the EU.
So, believe it or not....there is no endgame.....it just continues on.
BDU Fashion versus Politics
By uttering BDU....I am referring to Battle-Dress-Uniform, or camouflage gear. Back around 2005, my German son wanted to get new pants, and what he wanted was BDU or camouflage pants. My wife discouraged this trend. In the kid's defense, this was the start-up period of a fashion trend.
Over the past five years, if I walk around the streets of Wiesbaden and ride public transportation....I've come to see a lot of BDU fashion statements now. Kids wear camouflage sweaters and jackets. BDU pants are now a hot item.....some in green camo.....some in gray camo....even some in pinkish or fluorescent camo. I won't say the majority wear this, but it's probably one out of twenty kids who dress in some type of camo attire. Even combat boots or jungle boots....are a fashion item now.
If you'd told me thirty years ago, that kids would be into the camo-look, I would have laughed.
So this topic came up in a school in Lage (about halfway between Hamburg and Frankfurt). Lage is mostly non-urbanized, but has a population of 35,000.
The school director got into a rule-making situation, and made up this banning of camo-gear for attire in the school. No BDU-type shirts or pants, or jackets.
Chief reason? She says that the migrant kids are traumatized by the military gear look.
Reaction? Well....an overwhelming number of parents got into the situation and got pretty negative about this ban. The parents say....they want a vote. I'm guessing the director would like to avoid that, but presently....it'll likely occur before the end of the school year.
Issues?
Well, the director can only make up rules for the school. The other hundred hours a week that the kid isn't in school....they could wear the camo-gear on the streets, on the playgrounds, and in public settings. So if there are traumatized kids.....the ban won't do much.
Admitting that there are traumatized kids? That's another issue I see. If you have such kids, they would need to be in some treatment program. Is the social program around Lage running such a program? No one says much.
In some areas of the world....military folks don't wear camo-gear....they wear strictly green military gear. So would the director go to the next step and ban the color green from school attire as well....even from teachers and staff?
What happens if the kids go to some protest movement and all start to wear pink? A student movement that threatens the authority of the management?
It's an odd problem and I doubt if this goes away.
Over the past five years, if I walk around the streets of Wiesbaden and ride public transportation....I've come to see a lot of BDU fashion statements now. Kids wear camouflage sweaters and jackets. BDU pants are now a hot item.....some in green camo.....some in gray camo....even some in pinkish or fluorescent camo. I won't say the majority wear this, but it's probably one out of twenty kids who dress in some type of camo attire. Even combat boots or jungle boots....are a fashion item now.
If you'd told me thirty years ago, that kids would be into the camo-look, I would have laughed.
So this topic came up in a school in Lage (about halfway between Hamburg and Frankfurt). Lage is mostly non-urbanized, but has a population of 35,000.
The school director got into a rule-making situation, and made up this banning of camo-gear for attire in the school. No BDU-type shirts or pants, or jackets.
Chief reason? She says that the migrant kids are traumatized by the military gear look.
Reaction? Well....an overwhelming number of parents got into the situation and got pretty negative about this ban. The parents say....they want a vote. I'm guessing the director would like to avoid that, but presently....it'll likely occur before the end of the school year.
Issues?
Well, the director can only make up rules for the school. The other hundred hours a week that the kid isn't in school....they could wear the camo-gear on the streets, on the playgrounds, and in public settings. So if there are traumatized kids.....the ban won't do much.
Admitting that there are traumatized kids? That's another issue I see. If you have such kids, they would need to be in some treatment program. Is the social program around Lage running such a program? No one says much.
In some areas of the world....military folks don't wear camo-gear....they wear strictly green military gear. So would the director go to the next step and ban the color green from school attire as well....even from teachers and staff?
What happens if the kids go to some protest movement and all start to wear pink? A student movement that threatens the authority of the management?
It's an odd problem and I doubt if this goes away.
Humble Opinions
Over the past forty-eight hours (after this EU election on Sunday)....there's been this trending discussion over 'opinions'. Part of the blame for the poorer numbers by the CDU Party (Merkel's group, right-of-center) and the SPD Party (left-of-center)....is that an individual or two stepped out on YouTube and social media....openly criticizing both parties. The belief is (offered by journalists) this convinced several hundred thousand Germans to flip their vote to the Green Party. So the key discussion is over opinion and if open social media should allow opinion.
I know.....this is pretty stupid, but Germans (the political folks and the journalists) have not yet understood this 'creature' of social media. They are still working on fake news and how to prevent the 'evil' Russians from interfering in their elections.
Over the past year or two, I've come to five observations about Germans, political opinions, and trends:
1. There's a lot of hype and 'propaganda' now geared toward young voters (even those in the 13 to 17 year group and not yet a voter). Whether the primary parties or journalists have grasped this yet or not.....there is this shift underway. The primary gainer of these new voters? The Green Party.
2. You could have gone to any pub in Germany over the past year and asked if both Merkel's CDU Party or the SPD Party is screwed-up, and the majority of regular working-class people would have smiled and agreed on the party 'mess'. The theatrical side has made politics into a fake TV 'show'.
3. To resolve or fix any of the top dozen problems in Germany today....you need more cash revenue (taxes). If you combine all of the taxes together, it's a very significant amount of taxation already.....so adding onto this is not an option. The problem is that the chief discussion now (carbon taxes)....would add significant portions of cash, and leave less money in the pockets of Germans. So the general public is going to eventually identify politicians as 'thieves'.
4. Social media gave everyone in Germany a chance to say something, and some of this is blunt and hard to accept. Once you get a group bound by social media.....that can easily snowball into votes for fringe groups.
5. Finally, at least as far as I can see.....none of the CDU or SPD 'chiefs' can maneuver well in this new environment. They are mostly Merkel-types, and set more to the intellectual landscape than reacting to public opinion.
Where will this lead? That's a good question, and if the normal election cycle is observed....we've got just over two years before the next national election to find out the change.
I know.....this is pretty stupid, but Germans (the political folks and the journalists) have not yet understood this 'creature' of social media. They are still working on fake news and how to prevent the 'evil' Russians from interfering in their elections.
Over the past year or two, I've come to five observations about Germans, political opinions, and trends:
1. There's a lot of hype and 'propaganda' now geared toward young voters (even those in the 13 to 17 year group and not yet a voter). Whether the primary parties or journalists have grasped this yet or not.....there is this shift underway. The primary gainer of these new voters? The Green Party.
2. You could have gone to any pub in Germany over the past year and asked if both Merkel's CDU Party or the SPD Party is screwed-up, and the majority of regular working-class people would have smiled and agreed on the party 'mess'. The theatrical side has made politics into a fake TV 'show'.
3. To resolve or fix any of the top dozen problems in Germany today....you need more cash revenue (taxes). If you combine all of the taxes together, it's a very significant amount of taxation already.....so adding onto this is not an option. The problem is that the chief discussion now (carbon taxes)....would add significant portions of cash, and leave less money in the pockets of Germans. So the general public is going to eventually identify politicians as 'thieves'.
4. Social media gave everyone in Germany a chance to say something, and some of this is blunt and hard to accept. Once you get a group bound by social media.....that can easily snowball into votes for fringe groups.
5. Finally, at least as far as I can see.....none of the CDU or SPD 'chiefs' can maneuver well in this new environment. They are mostly Merkel-types, and set more to the intellectual landscape than reacting to public opinion.
Where will this lead? That's a good question, and if the normal election cycle is observed....we've got just over two years before the next national election to find out the change.
'Nebulous'
Cops often use short blunt phrases to emphasize a situation, and the word 'nebulous' came up yesterday in Frankfurt.
What apparently occurred was that multiple gunshots were fired in the downtown area of Frankfurt (something that just never happens)....near the Konstablerwache area (if you've ever been there, this is end of the shopping district). Via Twitter, the Frankfurt police put out a warning for residents around the district to stay indoors, and wait.
Via cameras and witnesses.....they eventually came to four guys and detained them. A gun and knife were confiscated and they are attempting to put the story together.
Gang warfare? I might go and suspect that a discussion came up....maybe some debt or problem was being worked, and people got hostile.
The thing is....you just don't have warfare going on much on the streets of Germany, and pistols in this type of circumstance are just awful rare. But this is another indicator of the evolving atmosphere in Germany since the 1980s. Various gangs and crime-clans are at work, and infringing upon each other's turf. My guess is that none of the four are talking and the cops might be forced to release them.
What apparently occurred was that multiple gunshots were fired in the downtown area of Frankfurt (something that just never happens)....near the Konstablerwache area (if you've ever been there, this is end of the shopping district). Via Twitter, the Frankfurt police put out a warning for residents around the district to stay indoors, and wait.
Via cameras and witnesses.....they eventually came to four guys and detained them. A gun and knife were confiscated and they are attempting to put the story together.
Gang warfare? I might go and suspect that a discussion came up....maybe some debt or problem was being worked, and people got hostile.
The thing is....you just don't have warfare going on much on the streets of Germany, and pistols in this type of circumstance are just awful rare. But this is another indicator of the evolving atmosphere in Germany since the 1980s. Various gangs and crime-clans are at work, and infringing upon each other's turf. My guess is that none of the four are talking and the cops might be forced to release them.
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
School Story
I sat last night and watched a short German news piece on private schools. There's a trend underway, which doesn't get discussed much.
Back in 2000, roughly 5.5-percent of schools in Germany were private. Today, it's 11-percent.
In fact, if you go to the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, it's now reached 19-percent.
So, what's going on? There are two basic elements.....the middle-to-upper-class crowd have the money and can afford to send their kid off to these schools, and there is the belief that they do a better job than public schools.
Critics of this concept believe that it's dividing society and making the case that the public school are 'crappy'.
Around a dozen years ago, I had to go over to my son's public school (in the K-town region). This was a building that was outdated, in bad shape, and just about to undergo a renovation. They figured that the renovation would take two years, and with their timing, my son wouldn't see the end-result. It was a building built in the 1950s, other than heating improvements and maybe a coat of paint done once or twice over the next fifty years.....it was the same basic building. They were at least a dozen years behind in improvement planning.
A lot of Germans talk about school infrastructure, and it's generally negative discussions.
The odds that this trend will continue to move upward? It's more than likely, and the public school crowd face some stiff competition now.
Back in 2000, roughly 5.5-percent of schools in Germany were private. Today, it's 11-percent.
In fact, if you go to the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, it's now reached 19-percent.
So, what's going on? There are two basic elements.....the middle-to-upper-class crowd have the money and can afford to send their kid off to these schools, and there is the belief that they do a better job than public schools.
Critics of this concept believe that it's dividing society and making the case that the public school are 'crappy'.
Around a dozen years ago, I had to go over to my son's public school (in the K-town region). This was a building that was outdated, in bad shape, and just about to undergo a renovation. They figured that the renovation would take two years, and with their timing, my son wouldn't see the end-result. It was a building built in the 1950s, other than heating improvements and maybe a coat of paint done once or twice over the next fifty years.....it was the same basic building. They were at least a dozen years behind in improvement planning.
A lot of Germans talk about school infrastructure, and it's generally negative discussions.
The odds that this trend will continue to move upward? It's more than likely, and the public school crowd face some stiff competition now.
The Odds of a National German Election Before 2021?
Last year, most folks would have given it 5-to-10 percent chance....mostly because roughly a third of all SPD Party members are disenchanted with the coalition relationship with Merkel's party (the CDU-CSU combo). If you remember, this was the second scenario at work, because the Greens and FDP folks couldn't work out a relationship with Merkel.
After this weekends EU election, there's a bit of chatter going on that suggests that two scenarios are in play: (1) Merkel may retire, with AKK stepping up and the SPD might choose to disconnect their relationship and trigger an election, or (2) an element in both the CDU and SPD may see this relationship at a end-point, even if Merkel stays around.
Past early elections?
Summer of 2005, a motion of no-confidence occurred in the 3rd year of Schroeder's 2nd term. In this case, Merkel won her first election MARGINALLY (roughly 500,000 votes separated them).
The 1972 national election was held a year early, mostly because of conflict with the Chancellor (Brandt) and his east-west relationship. The attempt to kick Brandt out? Failed by roughly half-a-million votes.
Between 1919 and 1936....with two single exceptions....the other seven elections were all out of cycle and due to political intrigue.
In the current landscape? You can count on seven central features:
1. The Green Party (with their candidate Habeck) is probably in the best position of the past forty years, and can easily take twenty-plus percent in a national election.
2. The SPD Party is in it's weakest position of the past one-hundred years, and it would be remarkable if they got sixteen-plus percent of the national vote.
3. The top issues? Climate change, pension reform (to help the welfare pensioners), welfare reform, the carbon tax, affordable housing shortages in urbanized regions, and immigration-asylum-integration.
4 Merkel won't be in the running, and some CDU members aren't that enthusiastic about AKK.
5. AfD (the anti-immigration party and proclaimed loudly as populist-run....could easily take 12-to-16 percent of the votes....deeply dividing things and making it difficult to arrange a coalition.
6. Social media is now figured to matter, and some journalists/politicians are worried because they control the 'theme' of this creature.
7. Finally, you come to the youth vote. Typically, the SPD would talk all positive about how they could influence this group. Well....it's apparent now via the EU election....that the Greens now OWN the youth vote, via climate change.
If a national vote is called early.....I would give the win to the Green Party and figure that four years of Habeck will occur, with massive economic problems triggering a far-right slant as the consequence.
After this weekends EU election, there's a bit of chatter going on that suggests that two scenarios are in play: (1) Merkel may retire, with AKK stepping up and the SPD might choose to disconnect their relationship and trigger an election, or (2) an element in both the CDU and SPD may see this relationship at a end-point, even if Merkel stays around.
Past early elections?
Summer of 2005, a motion of no-confidence occurred in the 3rd year of Schroeder's 2nd term. In this case, Merkel won her first election MARGINALLY (roughly 500,000 votes separated them).
The 1972 national election was held a year early, mostly because of conflict with the Chancellor (Brandt) and his east-west relationship. The attempt to kick Brandt out? Failed by roughly half-a-million votes.
Between 1919 and 1936....with two single exceptions....the other seven elections were all out of cycle and due to political intrigue.
In the current landscape? You can count on seven central features:
1. The Green Party (with their candidate Habeck) is probably in the best position of the past forty years, and can easily take twenty-plus percent in a national election.
2. The SPD Party is in it's weakest position of the past one-hundred years, and it would be remarkable if they got sixteen-plus percent of the national vote.
3. The top issues? Climate change, pension reform (to help the welfare pensioners), welfare reform, the carbon tax, affordable housing shortages in urbanized regions, and immigration-asylum-integration.
4 Merkel won't be in the running, and some CDU members aren't that enthusiastic about AKK.
5. AfD (the anti-immigration party and proclaimed loudly as populist-run....could easily take 12-to-16 percent of the votes....deeply dividing things and making it difficult to arrange a coalition.
6. Social media is now figured to matter, and some journalists/politicians are worried because they control the 'theme' of this creature.
7. Finally, you come to the youth vote. Typically, the SPD would talk all positive about how they could influence this group. Well....it's apparent now via the EU election....that the Greens now OWN the youth vote, via climate change.
If a national vote is called early.....I would give the win to the Green Party and figure that four years of Habeck will occur, with massive economic problems triggering a far-right slant as the consequence.
The Social Structure
Roughly a week prior to the EU election of Sunday....a young YouTuber came out and blasted away at the CDU and SPD parties....suggesting to his followers to use alternate parties to achieve political results (to be referred to as the 'Rezo-effect'.....after Rezo, the YouTuber).
Well, as you might expect, this drew frustrations after the election ended by the CDU Party chief....Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK). Yesterday, she came out in a statement and suggested the idea of 'regulating opinions'. Course, you can guess the German reaction to that.
The quote? "What would actually happen in this country, if a number of, say, 70 newspaper offices had declared two days before the election, we make a joint appeal: Please do not vote CDU and SPD, that would have been clear opinion before the election."
The discussion of this? Here's the thing, social media hasn't been fully understood by the political apparatus in Germany. Their feeling after the 2016 American election....was that fake news was the problem. They talked for endless hours via public forums about the evils of fake news. Then in the last twelve months, they hyped up populism. Now? They are a bit worried that no-name social commentators over Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube....might be able to influence 10 to 20 percent of the German voters in the last two weeks.
How would you regulate something like this? My guess is that you'd say for the last ten days of the election period.....no political commentary by anyone (news groups, social media, etc). Legal? It's hard to say if the court system would agree to this.
The problem here is that you might start to see various social commentators that blast away at both the CDU and the SPD....causing fringe parties to gain, and invent some fractured system to mess around with German elections.
Well, as you might expect, this drew frustrations after the election ended by the CDU Party chief....Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK). Yesterday, she came out in a statement and suggested the idea of 'regulating opinions'. Course, you can guess the German reaction to that.
The quote? "What would actually happen in this country, if a number of, say, 70 newspaper offices had declared two days before the election, we make a joint appeal: Please do not vote CDU and SPD, that would have been clear opinion before the election."
The discussion of this? Here's the thing, social media hasn't been fully understood by the political apparatus in Germany. Their feeling after the 2016 American election....was that fake news was the problem. They talked for endless hours via public forums about the evils of fake news. Then in the last twelve months, they hyped up populism. Now? They are a bit worried that no-name social commentators over Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube....might be able to influence 10 to 20 percent of the German voters in the last two weeks.
How would you regulate something like this? My guess is that you'd say for the last ten days of the election period.....no political commentary by anyone (news groups, social media, etc). Legal? It's hard to say if the court system would agree to this.
The problem here is that you might start to see various social commentators that blast away at both the CDU and the SPD....causing fringe parties to gain, and invent some fractured system to mess around with German elections.
Merkel's New Mess
After this EU election wrapped up.....there is a bit of speculation going on that the Chancellor basically needs to resolve some major issues, or retire to allow new people to figure out the mess approaching.
First, within the SPD Party (the junior coalition partner), things are falling apart. Various senior leaders of the party believe that they are floundering and need a massive change to leadership. But there's fear that whoever they pick from this dozen-odd possibilities....it'll just progress onto the next problem.
Second, this carbon tax business is now lined up to be a major burden. The Environmental Ministry (led by a SPD Party member), has now announced (after the election) that they are moving ahead without the agreement of the CDU-partner. This violates some agreed-upon standards and typically, it'd be enough to dissolve this coalition. But if you do that....the two options left are a partnership with the Greens (gets you the same carbon tax), or a new national election (something that the SPD would like to avoid at all costs).
What is this carbon tax deal? Merkel agreed to allow a 2030 carbon usage 'limit' for Germans. Everything....that includes cars, power production, groceries, pavements, motorcycles, etc....that produces carbon would have a tax allocated. You would be paying into some pot, for excessive use of carbon.
Naturally, you'd ask.....all this revenue going into a pot, it'd have to be massive (some people suggest five to ten billion a year)....what becomes of this money? Well....the Finance Minister wants it to be 'gift' money....that he'd dispense it for social programs and wonderful public projects. Some examples are the use of this pot to pay for full use of railways and buses....so it'd all be free of charge.
Has the public understood that hundreds of Euro per year.....would fall out of their pocket, and into this carbon tax gimmick? No. You can ask most Germans to explain this and they know very little.
Are other EU members going down this path? In France, it's being discussed. To a lesser degree in the other 26 EU states.
Shouldn't it be a EU or nothing situation? Well, think about this. You are impacting the German economy in a massive and negative way. You are taking a minimum of 500 Euro a year (maybe even on up to 1,500 Euro) from each person, for their carbon 'woes'. Even if you gifted them a travel-free deal on trains and buses.....the vast majority will still own cars, and the bulk will still drive to work. So the gift really isn't that appreciated. In return, won't the economy falter and go into recession? Yep, that's pretty much what this carbon tax is designed to do.
As one CDU member described the folks supporting this idea....they are on some religion-cult-like chatter, and aren't thinking about the nation itself.
Imagine buying an airline ticket today for 500 Euro and discovering in eight months that the same airline ticket is now 580 Euro. Imagine going to pay your yearly car registration 'fee' of 85 Euro, and having the old clerk tell you that it went to 145 Euro because you consume too much carbon. The McDonalds Menu number four dinner that you normally pay 9.95 Euro? Well, it's be pushed upward to 11.95 Euro.
You might even reach the stage of finding that your dream vacation to New Zealand costs 28-percent more because of the carbon tax....if you leave from Frankfurt. But then you ask about leaving from Prague, and find that there is no carbon tax there, and the price is more reasonable.....so you waste an entire day driving to Prague....to fly out and save that 28-percent.
All of this is drawing Germany closer to a angry and frustrated situation....with people more divided than ever, and the Chancellor really isn't capable of bringing 'happiness' to the situation.
First, within the SPD Party (the junior coalition partner), things are falling apart. Various senior leaders of the party believe that they are floundering and need a massive change to leadership. But there's fear that whoever they pick from this dozen-odd possibilities....it'll just progress onto the next problem.
Second, this carbon tax business is now lined up to be a major burden. The Environmental Ministry (led by a SPD Party member), has now announced (after the election) that they are moving ahead without the agreement of the CDU-partner. This violates some agreed-upon standards and typically, it'd be enough to dissolve this coalition. But if you do that....the two options left are a partnership with the Greens (gets you the same carbon tax), or a new national election (something that the SPD would like to avoid at all costs).
What is this carbon tax deal? Merkel agreed to allow a 2030 carbon usage 'limit' for Germans. Everything....that includes cars, power production, groceries, pavements, motorcycles, etc....that produces carbon would have a tax allocated. You would be paying into some pot, for excessive use of carbon.
Naturally, you'd ask.....all this revenue going into a pot, it'd have to be massive (some people suggest five to ten billion a year)....what becomes of this money? Well....the Finance Minister wants it to be 'gift' money....that he'd dispense it for social programs and wonderful public projects. Some examples are the use of this pot to pay for full use of railways and buses....so it'd all be free of charge.
Has the public understood that hundreds of Euro per year.....would fall out of their pocket, and into this carbon tax gimmick? No. You can ask most Germans to explain this and they know very little.
Are other EU members going down this path? In France, it's being discussed. To a lesser degree in the other 26 EU states.
Shouldn't it be a EU or nothing situation? Well, think about this. You are impacting the German economy in a massive and negative way. You are taking a minimum of 500 Euro a year (maybe even on up to 1,500 Euro) from each person, for their carbon 'woes'. Even if you gifted them a travel-free deal on trains and buses.....the vast majority will still own cars, and the bulk will still drive to work. So the gift really isn't that appreciated. In return, won't the economy falter and go into recession? Yep, that's pretty much what this carbon tax is designed to do.
As one CDU member described the folks supporting this idea....they are on some religion-cult-like chatter, and aren't thinking about the nation itself.
Imagine buying an airline ticket today for 500 Euro and discovering in eight months that the same airline ticket is now 580 Euro. Imagine going to pay your yearly car registration 'fee' of 85 Euro, and having the old clerk tell you that it went to 145 Euro because you consume too much carbon. The McDonalds Menu number four dinner that you normally pay 9.95 Euro? Well, it's be pushed upward to 11.95 Euro.
You might even reach the stage of finding that your dream vacation to New Zealand costs 28-percent more because of the carbon tax....if you leave from Frankfurt. But then you ask about leaving from Prague, and find that there is no carbon tax there, and the price is more reasonable.....so you waste an entire day driving to Prague....to fly out and save that 28-percent.
All of this is drawing Germany closer to a angry and frustrated situation....with people more divided than ever, and the Chancellor really isn't capable of bringing 'happiness' to the situation.
Monday, May 27, 2019
Grocery Term
At German grocery operations over the past couple of months, if you pay attention to 'labels'.....there's a new label out there called 'FairTrade' (green, black and blue).
The meaning? You are paying slightly extra for this product, which is produced outside of the EU and Germany.....usually a third-world country....and there is a foundation which is monitoring a company, which has to pay its workers a 'fair wage'. I put 'fair wage' in quotes because it's often misused and abused.
Are Germans willing to pay extra....to be more 'fair'? I brought this up to my German wife, who said in a blunt way....no. Her stance? A working-class doesn't make the money to go and pay extra for this. Where you typically find this label? Well....items which are NOT in season. So who does pay? Probably the more wealthy non-working-class..
An example. Germans typically buy German, French, or Italian grapes in the period....June through August. For the rest of the year? They might find quantities from Peru, Chile, Egypt, India or Ecuador. So there might some cooperative in Peru that pays a higher (more fair) wage, and this gets tacked on and the German distributor pays two to four percent more on the product.
The meaning? You are paying slightly extra for this product, which is produced outside of the EU and Germany.....usually a third-world country....and there is a foundation which is monitoring a company, which has to pay its workers a 'fair wage'. I put 'fair wage' in quotes because it's often misused and abused.
Are Germans willing to pay extra....to be more 'fair'? I brought this up to my German wife, who said in a blunt way....no. Her stance? A working-class doesn't make the money to go and pay extra for this. Where you typically find this label? Well....items which are NOT in season. So who does pay? Probably the more wealthy non-working-class..
An example. Germans typically buy German, French, or Italian grapes in the period....June through August. For the rest of the year? They might find quantities from Peru, Chile, Egypt, India or Ecuador. So there might some cooperative in Peru that pays a higher (more fair) wage, and this gets tacked on and the German distributor pays two to four percent more on the product.
American Arms Going Down
Tearing down project proceeds on. Probably will be done by July.
The city-planned project going up? A student-friendly housing area, talked about as being 'affordable'. New neighborhood will be referred to as 'Kaiserhof'.
The old bowling alley across from it? Still there and actively making business.
Sunday, May 26, 2019
The Kippa Story
The Kippa....is the Jewish 'hat' that guys wear (if you are true to being Jewish and want to identify yourself). In a normal day of walking around Wiesbaden, you might bump into one or two guys like this and wearing the 'hat'. In a Berlin situation....in a more thick neighborhood with Jews present, you might bump into dozens.
This past week, a German government guy (within the national security apparatus).....made the comment that presently, it's a bigger threat to you, if you wear the Kippa while walking on German streets. His point was that more right-wing people are attacking Jews on the streets of Germany.
So I dug into this. Statistically (this is the government's own numbers)....there's a 19.6-percent increase of personal attacks on German soil on guys (2018 situation).....compared against 2017. 1504 attacks in 2017, and 1799 in 2018. Curiously, and I read through a number of sites.....you can't establish who or what was the individual behind the 1799 attacks for last year. Maybe it was right-wing.....maybe it was left-wing....maybe it was mostly non-Christians and non-Jews.....maybe it was nutcases.....maybe it was radical Islamic types.
How did the government guy come to suggest 'ditching' the Kippa? Well, he simply made the statement that you'd be better off....NOT wearing the Kippa.
Some people (suggested by journalists) think that this was an effort to send a message to the mayors, police, and authorities that more needs to be done to prevent personal assaults. It wasn't received that well by the Jewish guys....they think it suggests more of a threat.
Should this government guy have identified WHERE these attacks took place and suggest that three or four urban regions took up the bulk of the attacks? That might have helped to center your efforts and let judges know that real efforts to send people off for assaults ought to occur.
Here's the thing that bothers me.....altogether, there are only around 115,000 Jews in Germany. You can figure around 50-percent of them are women. So this puts the numbers of guys who might wear a Kippa....at around 55,000 (taking out the kids). So you are suggesting 1799 attacks in one year against a possible group of only 55,000 guys? That's a hefty number if you think about it. The fact that you can't find a single assault by a Jewish guy wearing a Kippa on a non-Jew? Well....yeah, that kinda tells the rest of this story.
This past week, a German government guy (within the national security apparatus).....made the comment that presently, it's a bigger threat to you, if you wear the Kippa while walking on German streets. His point was that more right-wing people are attacking Jews on the streets of Germany.
So I dug into this. Statistically (this is the government's own numbers)....there's a 19.6-percent increase of personal attacks on German soil on guys (2018 situation).....compared against 2017. 1504 attacks in 2017, and 1799 in 2018. Curiously, and I read through a number of sites.....you can't establish who or what was the individual behind the 1799 attacks for last year. Maybe it was right-wing.....maybe it was left-wing....maybe it was mostly non-Christians and non-Jews.....maybe it was nutcases.....maybe it was radical Islamic types.
How did the government guy come to suggest 'ditching' the Kippa? Well, he simply made the statement that you'd be better off....NOT wearing the Kippa.
Some people (suggested by journalists) think that this was an effort to send a message to the mayors, police, and authorities that more needs to be done to prevent personal assaults. It wasn't received that well by the Jewish guys....they think it suggests more of a threat.
Should this government guy have identified WHERE these attacks took place and suggest that three or four urban regions took up the bulk of the attacks? That might have helped to center your efforts and let judges know that real efforts to send people off for assaults ought to occur.
Here's the thing that bothers me.....altogether, there are only around 115,000 Jews in Germany. You can figure around 50-percent of them are women. So this puts the numbers of guys who might wear a Kippa....at around 55,000 (taking out the kids). So you are suggesting 1799 attacks in one year against a possible group of only 55,000 guys? That's a hefty number if you think about it. The fact that you can't find a single assault by a Jewish guy wearing a Kippa on a non-Jew? Well....yeah, that kinda tells the rest of this story.
Saturday, May 25, 2019
If I Were Hitler In 2019
This is one of those essays I write....free-hand.
If I were Hitler, young (say 17 to 20 years old) and existing in 2019.....I'd be in a 'pasture' with plenty of ability to roam, 'fertile green grass', and various ways to communicate with people.
I wouldn't bother with a political party....I aim to build a coalition and bring voters in....to line up the highest bidder who confirmed to our identity, and swing four million votes via my coalition.
I'd make my issues simple: Hartz IV welfare (emphasize unfairness), welfare pension (emphasize unfairness), free railway and bus tickets for all working class people, and climate control/global warming.
I'd aim my message strictly at kids in the range of 13 to 18, welfare recipients, pensioners in dire straits, and the anti-social crowd.
I'd take my message out to the public via YouTube, with heavy use of poetic lyrics and open criticism of the wealthy class and the doomed denying climate change. I'd boast of four million Germans as 'friends of my 'channel' and make Saturday night speeches carried live via Twitter across the nation.
I'd talk about a lifestyle in relation to climate change....taxation upon carbon production, and the unfairness of the wealthy-class in relation to the rest of 'us'.
I'd wear second-hand clothing, combat boots, dye my hair green or some tinted color, sip natural tea products, and be a pure and absolute vegan.
In ten years, I'd have my four to five million voters lined up, and one of the parties would have to fall along my agenda, and we'd bring 'change' to Germany.
Somewhere down the line, someone would sit there decades later.....asking how people were so naive and fell so easily to s simplified message. All it required was entry into their social media world.
If I were Hitler, young (say 17 to 20 years old) and existing in 2019.....I'd be in a 'pasture' with plenty of ability to roam, 'fertile green grass', and various ways to communicate with people.
I wouldn't bother with a political party....I aim to build a coalition and bring voters in....to line up the highest bidder who confirmed to our identity, and swing four million votes via my coalition.
I'd make my issues simple: Hartz IV welfare (emphasize unfairness), welfare pension (emphasize unfairness), free railway and bus tickets for all working class people, and climate control/global warming.
I'd aim my message strictly at kids in the range of 13 to 18, welfare recipients, pensioners in dire straits, and the anti-social crowd.
I'd take my message out to the public via YouTube, with heavy use of poetic lyrics and open criticism of the wealthy class and the doomed denying climate change. I'd boast of four million Germans as 'friends of my 'channel' and make Saturday night speeches carried live via Twitter across the nation.
I'd talk about a lifestyle in relation to climate change....taxation upon carbon production, and the unfairness of the wealthy-class in relation to the rest of 'us'.
I'd wear second-hand clothing, combat boots, dye my hair green or some tinted color, sip natural tea products, and be a pure and absolute vegan.
In ten years, I'd have my four to five million voters lined up, and one of the parties would have to fall along my agenda, and we'd bring 'change' to Germany.
Somewhere down the line, someone would sit there decades later.....asking how people were so naive and fell so easily to s simplified message. All it required was entry into their social media world.
Election Poster
Die Partei is a group who openly takes a sarcastic view of the whole election.
This poster, I came across in Wurzburg this week.
The slogan? For a bigger Europe.....take in Africa (entirely). In their mind, that would fix all this immigration and asylum business, and make them all part of the EU process.
The problem I see.....a dozen guys sitting around in a pub would look at the idea....then start a discussion. You might actually find 20-percent of Germans engaged in this idea and thinking....yeah, sure, let's bring in all of Africa and just make one big EU.
This sarcastic view of the EU, and the election? It's growing, and I might go and suggest that in a decade....it will get worse.
Friday, May 24, 2019
Young Thug Story
It got into front-page news here in Germany today, and likely will be discussed for weeks. It's a story that concerns Wuppertal (a town in north Germany...half-a-hour's drive east of Dusseldorf). 350,000 residents in the town, and this entire NW area of Germany is often discussed with youth crime, gang and clan activity.
What the cops say.....two young gentlemen (referred to as the 'heads' of their gang), came upon a local retired guy and his wife as they were entering their apartment complex. The seventy-year old German guy haad made efforts recently to keep them (their gang) out of the building because they were there to urinate (pee) and dump their trash. Words were spoken by the older guy to the 'punks'.
Well....a couple of months ago, the cops removed the 'punks' and sent them off to a detention center. That didn't last long. And so the two had returned.
Basically, it doesn't matter which news group you got the story from....the story comes out the same way. The 'punks' laid an ambush on the guy and his wife.....got him on the ground and began to pummel him....kick him....etc. As the old guy fell....he hit his head on the wall. A concussion started up. He went into a coma. Then he died.
One of the 'punks' is noted as fourteen years old....the other is suggested to be fifteen years old.
Charges now? Serious bodily harm, but both are under 21 years old, and it's doubtful that they will stay in some juvenile holding system more than six years.
But that doesn't really end the story. Two folks came upon the fight and tried to hold down one of the 'punks' who punched on the rescue 'team'.....they responded and put a bit of 'pain' on the youth before the cops got there.
Other 'punks' involved? Some of them are identified as 13 years old and there is some investigation going on with their part to the attack.
What the journalists are suggesting is a youth gang that preyed upon kids.....adults, and senior citizens. Cops, prosecutors and judges? There's a strong perception given by locals when they are asked about this for the news cameras.....that the cops did what they could, but youth welfare folks failed, and prosecutors were handicapped on how they could handle violent young men. The German laws just aren't developed enough to handle this type of thug behavior. Their take is for 18 months, this type of behavior was allowed to continue, and the authorities (no one that you can finger or blame) just sat there.
Now? Cops might find enough to dump theft, burglary, drugs, and assault off on these underage hoodlums, and the bulk of the gang might do six months in some juvenile detention deal. These two with the dangerous bodily assault? Maybe five to six years before they are released at 21 years old. If some judge steps in and says their attitude and behavior are permanently dangerous.....he can detain them for the remainder of their lives. It's hard to suggest that will come out of this.
But all of this leads onto.....a vast amount of urbanized bad behavior by kids who are already by age twelve....a 'lost case' and failures in life. They aren't able to see any future, so this bad behavior situation is acceptable. The sad thing for this old guy is that he had to play a part in this story. For the rest who live in this building? Well.....one day, all of these hoodlums might get out and return.
This is one of those public and metropolitan problems facing Germany today. The laws aren't working, and no one is prepared to admit in public.....young thugs roam the streets nightly.
What the cops say.....two young gentlemen (referred to as the 'heads' of their gang), came upon a local retired guy and his wife as they were entering their apartment complex. The seventy-year old German guy haad made efforts recently to keep them (their gang) out of the building because they were there to urinate (pee) and dump their trash. Words were spoken by the older guy to the 'punks'.
Well....a couple of months ago, the cops removed the 'punks' and sent them off to a detention center. That didn't last long. And so the two had returned.
Basically, it doesn't matter which news group you got the story from....the story comes out the same way. The 'punks' laid an ambush on the guy and his wife.....got him on the ground and began to pummel him....kick him....etc. As the old guy fell....he hit his head on the wall. A concussion started up. He went into a coma. Then he died.
One of the 'punks' is noted as fourteen years old....the other is suggested to be fifteen years old.
Charges now? Serious bodily harm, but both are under 21 years old, and it's doubtful that they will stay in some juvenile holding system more than six years.
But that doesn't really end the story. Two folks came upon the fight and tried to hold down one of the 'punks' who punched on the rescue 'team'.....they responded and put a bit of 'pain' on the youth before the cops got there.
Other 'punks' involved? Some of them are identified as 13 years old and there is some investigation going on with their part to the attack.
What the journalists are suggesting is a youth gang that preyed upon kids.....adults, and senior citizens. Cops, prosecutors and judges? There's a strong perception given by locals when they are asked about this for the news cameras.....that the cops did what they could, but youth welfare folks failed, and prosecutors were handicapped on how they could handle violent young men. The German laws just aren't developed enough to handle this type of thug behavior. Their take is for 18 months, this type of behavior was allowed to continue, and the authorities (no one that you can finger or blame) just sat there.
Now? Cops might find enough to dump theft, burglary, drugs, and assault off on these underage hoodlums, and the bulk of the gang might do six months in some juvenile detention deal. These two with the dangerous bodily assault? Maybe five to six years before they are released at 21 years old. If some judge steps in and says their attitude and behavior are permanently dangerous.....he can detain them for the remainder of their lives. It's hard to suggest that will come out of this.
But all of this leads onto.....a vast amount of urbanized bad behavior by kids who are already by age twelve....a 'lost case' and failures in life. They aren't able to see any future, so this bad behavior situation is acceptable. The sad thing for this old guy is that he had to play a part in this story. For the rest who live in this building? Well.....one day, all of these hoodlums might get out and return.
This is one of those public and metropolitan problems facing Germany today. The laws aren't working, and no one is prepared to admit in public.....young thugs roam the streets nightly.
Trip From Yesterday
The big deal in town? Robert Habeck was coming to town at 5 PM. He's the new Green Party 'chief'. This is all part of the build-up for the EU election on Sunday.
Habeck? He is getting a lot of public attention and some people (particularly journalists).....think the Greens will end up in 2021.....winning the Chancellor seat, with Habeck as the next Chancellor.
So folks are coming out, to see the guy and get a 'feel'. My gut feeling? As Merkel slides out.....it's very possible that the Greens will get enough votes for this to happen.
Meditator Story
German school officials readily admit that student tensions and behavior issues are multiplying day after day. Some of this has to do with social media, and some of it involves a different culture/society that is developing.
So there's this new invention that I read about today.....mediators. Yes, German schools are bringing in meditators to talk with kids and persuade them to step away.....take a deep breath.....look at the issue in a different way.....then move on.
These mediators now have regular hours at some schools.
Yes.....someone to professionally sit and listen to a kid whine....then dump some empathy upon them.
All this student rage and frustration? Wrongs done against some kid? The mediators hears them out.
I looked over the story. There is no doubt that things have gone turbo with social media, and schools in Germany function like schools in the US.....under continual stress.
So there's this new invention that I read about today.....mediators. Yes, German schools are bringing in meditators to talk with kids and persuade them to step away.....take a deep breath.....look at the issue in a different way.....then move on.
These mediators now have regular hours at some schools.
Yes.....someone to professionally sit and listen to a kid whine....then dump some empathy upon them.
All this student rage and frustration? Wrongs done against some kid? The mediators hears them out.
I looked over the story. There is no doubt that things have gone turbo with social media, and schools in Germany function like schools in the US.....under continual stress.
Draft Law Story
In Hessen and most German states.....you don't have public referendums (where you have a draft 'act' that politicians aren't willing to sign up to or vote upon).
This week, in the Hessen state government.....the introduced a bill to handle referendums. In addition, they went and did a curious thing. Hessen law says that if you were running for office (mayor, city council, state legislature).....you have to be 21 years old or older. Well.....there's a second draft bill that brings that age of the member down to 18. Hessen is the last state in Germany where the 21 rule falls into effect.
Could this referendum law hurt some folks? In this era of social media.....you have to wonder about this.
This week, in the Hessen state government.....the introduced a bill to handle referendums. In addition, they went and did a curious thing. Hessen law says that if you were running for office (mayor, city council, state legislature).....you have to be 21 years old or older. Well.....there's a second draft bill that brings that age of the member down to 18. Hessen is the last state in Germany where the 21 rule falls into effect.
Could this referendum law hurt some folks? In this era of social media.....you have to wonder about this.
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
Clan Warfare?
This morning, if you follow German news.....roughly 500 police were sent out to forty-three locations across the NW of Germany....on the trail of an Iraqi crime 'clan'. What the cops say right now....this group was actively into weapon sales, drug trafficking, and smuggling.
The group? Identified to the public as 'Al-Salam-313'. The commentary suggests that thirty-four of them were brought in and detained to some degree. The cities identified from the news piece? Kohn, Essen, Bonn, Duisburg, and Krefeld.
The two odd angles to this story? First, they have some kind of relationship with the former guard of Saddam Hussein. The second angle is that the cops say they in a turf battle of some type against Lebanese clan groups in the same region.
Clan wars? For roughly two years, German cops have hinted that the clans have gone into turbo-mode and developed beyond anything that they'd ever seen before.
The group? Identified to the public as 'Al-Salam-313'. The commentary suggests that thirty-four of them were brought in and detained to some degree. The cities identified from the news piece? Kohn, Essen, Bonn, Duisburg, and Krefeld.
The two odd angles to this story? First, they have some kind of relationship with the former guard of Saddam Hussein. The second angle is that the cops say they in a turf battle of some type against Lebanese clan groups in the same region.
Clan wars? For roughly two years, German cops have hinted that the clans have gone into turbo-mode and developed beyond anything that they'd ever seen before.
Germans and Absentee Voting
If you go back two or three decades....in general, you had to show up on German election days (always a Sunday) to vote. In the past decade, absentee ballots are becoming fairly popular. You basically get the notice to vote in the mail, telling you the date and location of your registration. Then it'll say.....if you are out of town, or out of country.....you can vote by absentee....by sending this attached letter to your local Rothaus (town-hall). They send you a ballot about two to three weeks prior to the election, and you vote. Reason for the absentee? It can be literally any reason. You could even say that you hate public events, and that's good enough for the absentee ballot.
What people have noticed in this last Bavarian election.....almost fifty percent of people went this way. This is an amazingly high number.
So some journalists are hyped up and suggesting that it's not all positive. But they can't really give you any logical reason to be negative about this trend.
The older Germans would talk about voting in the 1950s/1960s.....how people would show up in tie and suit, and have coffee and cake after the vote at their local cafe. It was a big deal.
Is the absentee method increasing the numbers of voters? NO. That's one curious part of the story....you can show a trend from the 1990s (as the wall went down) to now, and it's a continual less number voting.
What people have noticed in this last Bavarian election.....almost fifty percent of people went this way. This is an amazingly high number.
So some journalists are hyped up and suggesting that it's not all positive. But they can't really give you any logical reason to be negative about this trend.
The older Germans would talk about voting in the 1950s/1960s.....how people would show up in tie and suit, and have coffee and cake after the vote at their local cafe. It was a big deal.
Is the absentee method increasing the numbers of voters? NO. That's one curious part of the story....you can show a trend from the 1990s (as the wall went down) to now, and it's a continual less number voting.
Wolf Story
Over the past two years, I've essayed a few pieces on the return of wolves to the German environment. In the beginning, if you watched German public TV....the documentary pieces were designed in some ways to approach the story on the level of the 'good wolf'. It reminded of the effort back from twelve years ago, when Bruno the bear arrived in Germany (the first in a hundred years to be noted in the wilds of Germany), and how Bruno was portrayed in the early days as the 'good bear'.
As time went by, the 'good wolf' slant has kinda failed. Farmers and livestock owners are complaining, and they want a national policy on wolves. The pro-wolf lobby (mostly environmentalists) don't want any hunting situations allowed.
So there's a draft bill being circuited around....the CDU needs the support of the SPD, to pass it. It would basically allow 'some' hunting of wolves to occur.
But tangled up into this mess is that fact the wolf is still seen as a 'strictly protected species'.
Right now, the suggested rule would say that if a wolf attack occurs, then the shooting and killing of the wolf would be allowed. The idea of an entire pack of wolves being killed off? Well....in various scenarios, yes....that could happen. But the rule says that every 'hunt' in this case....has to be approved by state officials. So you might have x-case be approved in the Pfalz, but the same identical case occurring in Hessen would be disapproved for a hunt.
The government paying off farmers for lost livestock? It's apparently going to be part of the draft.
But added to the conflicts....the Agricultural Minister (CDU Party, Klöckner) said she wants one additional step.....'wolf-free zones'. So far, that's been blocked. Chief reason? In a humorous way, the EU has a protection rule that hinders such a zone being created. Even if you had two packs of wolves noted in some rural community with a school surrounded by woods....no, you can't proclaim that area of the school as a 'wolf-free zone'....even if four kids were attacked or dragged off into the woods by the wolves. In this scenario, you'd just end up with some hunter on full-time duty to guard against wolves (not gun-carrying nutcases like you see in the US).
So you have to wonder....just how many wolves exist in Germany, and that brings up another debate. The hunters and their associations say it's up to around 1,000 total. The environmentalists and the government say it's near 400 total. Who is right? Unknown. Most of the wolf reports, if you pay attention to the news media.....suggest that it's mostly in the northern region of Germany, and has yet to really settle into Bavaria.
On quantity of pups produced by a female? I looked it up....it's typically four to six produced....yearly. So one single wolf female over a six-year period.....might produce 36 pups. Just doing the simple math and assuming that hunters aren't quietly hunting them.....it's probably closer to the 1,000 number mentioned, than the 400 number.
A continuing problem? All of this is now tightly bound into political stances by various groups. I hate to suggest that it's a top one-hundred problem....but if you were around farmers or live-stock enthusiasts, it's probably a top twenty-issue.
As time went by, the 'good wolf' slant has kinda failed. Farmers and livestock owners are complaining, and they want a national policy on wolves. The pro-wolf lobby (mostly environmentalists) don't want any hunting situations allowed.
So there's a draft bill being circuited around....the CDU needs the support of the SPD, to pass it. It would basically allow 'some' hunting of wolves to occur.
But tangled up into this mess is that fact the wolf is still seen as a 'strictly protected species'.
Right now, the suggested rule would say that if a wolf attack occurs, then the shooting and killing of the wolf would be allowed. The idea of an entire pack of wolves being killed off? Well....in various scenarios, yes....that could happen. But the rule says that every 'hunt' in this case....has to be approved by state officials. So you might have x-case be approved in the Pfalz, but the same identical case occurring in Hessen would be disapproved for a hunt.
The government paying off farmers for lost livestock? It's apparently going to be part of the draft.
But added to the conflicts....the Agricultural Minister (CDU Party, Klöckner) said she wants one additional step.....'wolf-free zones'. So far, that's been blocked. Chief reason? In a humorous way, the EU has a protection rule that hinders such a zone being created. Even if you had two packs of wolves noted in some rural community with a school surrounded by woods....no, you can't proclaim that area of the school as a 'wolf-free zone'....even if four kids were attacked or dragged off into the woods by the wolves. In this scenario, you'd just end up with some hunter on full-time duty to guard against wolves (not gun-carrying nutcases like you see in the US).
So you have to wonder....just how many wolves exist in Germany, and that brings up another debate. The hunters and their associations say it's up to around 1,000 total. The environmentalists and the government say it's near 400 total. Who is right? Unknown. Most of the wolf reports, if you pay attention to the news media.....suggest that it's mostly in the northern region of Germany, and has yet to really settle into Bavaria.
On quantity of pups produced by a female? I looked it up....it's typically four to six produced....yearly. So one single wolf female over a six-year period.....might produce 36 pups. Just doing the simple math and assuming that hunters aren't quietly hunting them.....it's probably closer to the 1,000 number mentioned, than the 400 number.
A continuing problem? All of this is now tightly bound into political stances by various groups. I hate to suggest that it's a top one-hundred problem....but if you were around farmers or live-stock enthusiasts, it's probably a top twenty-issue.
Strawberry Stand Robbery?
If you've never been around Hessen in May.....this is the month that strawberries are being picked, and hundreds of stands are open around the country, with locals being strawberries in massive quantities.
I'll even go to the extent of admitting that Hessen strawberries are among the best in the world.
The stands? They are mostly run by folks on a minimum-wage situation or members of the family who own the berry acreage.
I sat this morning....going over regional Hessen news, and this robbery comes up.
So, some guy comes up to a strawberry stand in the Morfelden-Walldorf area (east of the old Rhein Main Air Base area). Young kid running the stand. Guy approaches the stand....draws out a pistol....and robs the kid of several hundred Euro. The robber throws the cash and pistol into his backpack, and pedals off.
Cops got called and spent some time searching for the robber....but never found him.
Robberies on strawberry stands? They just never happen. So this is a rather odd episode. I'd hate to suggest a trend, but this is the type of environment that you live in today, and you simply have to adjust to and accept.
I'll even go to the extent of admitting that Hessen strawberries are among the best in the world.
The stands? They are mostly run by folks on a minimum-wage situation or members of the family who own the berry acreage.
I sat this morning....going over regional Hessen news, and this robbery comes up.
So, some guy comes up to a strawberry stand in the Morfelden-Walldorf area (east of the old Rhein Main Air Base area). Young kid running the stand. Guy approaches the stand....draws out a pistol....and robs the kid of several hundred Euro. The robber throws the cash and pistol into his backpack, and pedals off.
Cops got called and spent some time searching for the robber....but never found him.
Robberies on strawberry stands? They just never happen. So this is a rather odd episode. I'd hate to suggest a trend, but this is the type of environment that you live in today, and you simply have to adjust to and accept.
Measles Story
It's a six-line story which will have dramatic legal entanglements and probably force an opinion (positive or negative) out of most Germans.
The CDU Party head of the German Federal Health Ministry (Jens Spahn)....wants to put into place a mandatory measles vaccination rule....for all German kids attending public schools and Kitas (kindergarten operations).
Friction? Well, yeah.....there are various political elements (even with in the Green Party) which are anti-vaccination.
To get this passed, Spahn would need the support of the SPD Party (part of the coalition) and some folks within that party don't want this to be so....blunt.
A national health crisis? No, not really. But the fact that some schools have shut down for a week or two in the past six months, as measles passed via a community.....has some people asking questions.
If this mandated process occurred? The rule by Spahn would go into effect in March 2020....meaning all these kids who are unvaccinated would have to take the shot or be denied entry into the schools.
The odds of a legal challenge in court? Virtually guaranteed, I think.
The CDU Party head of the German Federal Health Ministry (Jens Spahn)....wants to put into place a mandatory measles vaccination rule....for all German kids attending public schools and Kitas (kindergarten operations).
Friction? Well, yeah.....there are various political elements (even with in the Green Party) which are anti-vaccination.
To get this passed, Spahn would need the support of the SPD Party (part of the coalition) and some folks within that party don't want this to be so....blunt.
A national health crisis? No, not really. But the fact that some schools have shut down for a week or two in the past six months, as measles passed via a community.....has some people asking questions.
If this mandated process occurred? The rule by Spahn would go into effect in March 2020....meaning all these kids who are unvaccinated would have to take the shot or be denied entry into the schools.
The odds of a legal challenge in court? Virtually guaranteed, I think.
The 23 Billion Euro Story
From 2018, the German authorities came up yesterday and admitted that roughly 23 billion Euro went to some form of immigration, asylum, integration, or related-support. It's a fair sum of money.
I sat and watched the two-minute piece off public TV.
Almost 8 billion Euro went to education and commerce-improvement projects in Africa.....to give them some hope of improvement and thus not make the attempt to cross the Med and become full-time asylum cases in Germany.
The suggestion that the 8 billion Euro is having an affect? Well....no one can show any statistical evidence. I know....it's silly to throw that much money at a problem and not really be able to prove or sustain some argument that the money isn't being wasted or consumed by unethical individuals.
For the integration programs and living standards support in Germany for new migrants? This bucket of money adds to 7.5 billion Euro, which is split among the sixteen states, and then rendered down to the cities/villages themselves.
The rest of the money (from the 23 billion Euro to start with)? Unknown....they don't really discuss that money. My guess it's mostly money going to the EU, and shipped out to Turkey and a few countries....to prevent more migrants from coming in.
Here's the curious thing, if you think about it. Prior to 2013, there were refugees and migrants who came into Germany each year.....to around 250,000 per year. Most settled in, took some German classes, and eventually got some employment chances (mostly low-skill jobs).....so they were in the system and paying taxes along the way. Since 2013, everything has expanded out....you have various migrants and immigrants who've entered the system....overwhelmed the normal pace of things....aren't part of any low-skill job situation (thus not paying taxes), and the nation has to take money from the tax revenue pot to correct measures because of a failure of leadership.
This 23 billion Euro? It probably should be just 10-percent of that bucket-size. The rest ought to be funneled into infrastructure, education, welfare reform, and a dozen other social projects for Germans. Eventually, people will wake up and realize the money thrown down into this pit. And remember, this is probably 23 billion Euro PER YEAR. Imagine having 100 billion over a decade to put into railway upgrades and bridge replacements throughout Germany.
I sat and watched the two-minute piece off public TV.
Almost 8 billion Euro went to education and commerce-improvement projects in Africa.....to give them some hope of improvement and thus not make the attempt to cross the Med and become full-time asylum cases in Germany.
The suggestion that the 8 billion Euro is having an affect? Well....no one can show any statistical evidence. I know....it's silly to throw that much money at a problem and not really be able to prove or sustain some argument that the money isn't being wasted or consumed by unethical individuals.
For the integration programs and living standards support in Germany for new migrants? This bucket of money adds to 7.5 billion Euro, which is split among the sixteen states, and then rendered down to the cities/villages themselves.
The rest of the money (from the 23 billion Euro to start with)? Unknown....they don't really discuss that money. My guess it's mostly money going to the EU, and shipped out to Turkey and a few countries....to prevent more migrants from coming in.
Here's the curious thing, if you think about it. Prior to 2013, there were refugees and migrants who came into Germany each year.....to around 250,000 per year. Most settled in, took some German classes, and eventually got some employment chances (mostly low-skill jobs).....so they were in the system and paying taxes along the way. Since 2013, everything has expanded out....you have various migrants and immigrants who've entered the system....overwhelmed the normal pace of things....aren't part of any low-skill job situation (thus not paying taxes), and the nation has to take money from the tax revenue pot to correct measures because of a failure of leadership.
This 23 billion Euro? It probably should be just 10-percent of that bucket-size. The rest ought to be funneled into infrastructure, education, welfare reform, and a dozen other social projects for Germans. Eventually, people will wake up and realize the money thrown down into this pit. And remember, this is probably 23 billion Euro PER YEAR. Imagine having 100 billion over a decade to put into railway upgrades and bridge replacements throughout Germany.
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
Papa Johns to Germany?
Papa Johns Pizza to Germany? Well....the announcement came in the past week....at least fourteen initially will open, with the first up in the NW region of Germany.
Germany and American-style pizza? This was a big deal in the 1980s, and Pizza Hut walked in to create their image here. In the past three years, Dominos bought into a German chain operation, and set itself up as a competitor.
More room for Papa Johns? Maybe.
The problem I see is that after you've had an Italian-style pizza, made by Germans at local pizzerias.....it's hard to really say the American-style is better. Then you do the pricing of a XL American-type pizza, and Germans kinda shake their head to some degree.
I do see a market in some of the metropolitan cities....especially those with a big traffic-flow of pedestrians. I could even see a Papa Johns operation in the Wiesbaden train-station area making a fair profit.
Germany and American-style pizza? This was a big deal in the 1980s, and Pizza Hut walked in to create their image here. In the past three years, Dominos bought into a German chain operation, and set itself up as a competitor.
More room for Papa Johns? Maybe.
The problem I see is that after you've had an Italian-style pizza, made by Germans at local pizzerias.....it's hard to really say the American-style is better. Then you do the pricing of a XL American-type pizza, and Germans kinda shake their head to some degree.
I do see a market in some of the metropolitan cities....especially those with a big traffic-flow of pedestrians. I could even see a Papa Johns operation in the Wiesbaden train-station area making a fair profit.
Railway Story
I sat and watched the early morning commercial German news and they had this piece on.....talking about the national issue of railway problems.
If you've looked around Germany since the early 1990s....a lot of tracks were 'turned-off' (discarded) because of the strategy ahead. Most of the tracks simply remain there....unused.
So there is this chatter of activating (renovating) 3,000 kilometers (1,865 miles) of the retired tracks. Chief reason? Well, the demand for more passengers and lesser car usage....leads to higher demands. Two groups have surveyed this idea (outside of the Bahn circles) and they say around 180 sections of track can be brought back online. Some of them are just a kilometer long.....some are up to sixty kilometers long.
Renovation costs? Well....no one says much over that and the Bahn would have to approach their financial plan and probably find another billion or two....to fund this idea.
If you've looked around Germany since the early 1990s....a lot of tracks were 'turned-off' (discarded) because of the strategy ahead. Most of the tracks simply remain there....unused.
So there is this chatter of activating (renovating) 3,000 kilometers (1,865 miles) of the retired tracks. Chief reason? Well, the demand for more passengers and lesser car usage....leads to higher demands. Two groups have surveyed this idea (outside of the Bahn circles) and they say around 180 sections of track can be brought back online. Some of them are just a kilometer long.....some are up to sixty kilometers long.
Renovation costs? Well....no one says much over that and the Bahn would have to approach their financial plan and probably find another billion or two....to fund this idea.
Monday, May 20, 2019
Update on Wahl-O-Mat
Around a week ago, I essayed a piece on the Wahl-O-Mat, which is the App that you can use to determine issues, and the 'best' party to vote for in elections. Cost-free, and easy to operate.....taking less than twelve minutes to determine your best way of voting.
Well....it came out today via a German court....that judges handed down a ruling.....that Wahl-O-Mat has to shut down unless they can find a way of also handling 'small' parties. There are more than forty parties that generally register themselves in German elections. In most German elections, there's at least ten new parties that appear (for the first time ever), and ten parties that disappear (some were only existing for one single election).
The judges say....Wahl-O-Mat's crew have to make it totally available. The party that brought this case up? Volt-Germany. I know....it's a fairly unknown party (been around since 2017). They claim 25,000 members or supporters.
The key phrase in the ruling? After you answer the forty-odd questions....you then have to select EIGHT parties to compare the weight of your answers against. Volt said that 'eight' was unfair, and the judges agreed. To resolve this? You'd have to open up the comparisons and allow all forty-odd parties to be used in the weight mechanism. It's not impossible but it'll take a code-guy to write this and a week or so to test out the mechanism.
Well....it came out today via a German court....that judges handed down a ruling.....that Wahl-O-Mat has to shut down unless they can find a way of also handling 'small' parties. There are more than forty parties that generally register themselves in German elections. In most German elections, there's at least ten new parties that appear (for the first time ever), and ten parties that disappear (some were only existing for one single election).
The judges say....Wahl-O-Mat's crew have to make it totally available. The party that brought this case up? Volt-Germany. I know....it's a fairly unknown party (been around since 2017). They claim 25,000 members or supporters.
The key phrase in the ruling? After you answer the forty-odd questions....you then have to select EIGHT parties to compare the weight of your answers against. Volt said that 'eight' was unfair, and the judges agreed. To resolve this? You'd have to open up the comparisons and allow all forty-odd parties to be used in the weight mechanism. It's not impossible but it'll take a code-guy to write this and a week or so to test out the mechanism.
On Madonna's Show
Over Saturday night, the European Song Contest aired (live) out of Israel. It's typically a three to four hour contest, with a winner announced at the end. Ten to twenty years ago.....you got mostly all two-star songs and acts....but I would say over the past five years...it's improved a lot. You get the best song of the year from twenty to thirty-five countries. It used to be solely European, and lately....they've added Australia and Russia.....and Israel.
So toward the very end of this (around 11:30/11:45), came Madonna. It was a 9-minute piece. I think most fans were sitting there in anticipation of some magnificent five-star concert act (perhaps going a bit longer than 9 minutes). It became something like you'd expect in Vegas for some Brittney Spears-type act, and less than a five-star moment.
Complaints? A number of Germans whined about the act. Some complaints were over the political slant in the act (a Palestinian flag being shown). The network folks claim this was not supposed to be part of the act.
The cost of her being there? Roughly a million dollars.
I think part of the problem is that Madonna's 'hay-day' was the 1980s/1990s, and most watching the ESC....just weren't from that generation.
So toward the very end of this (around 11:30/11:45), came Madonna. It was a 9-minute piece. I think most fans were sitting there in anticipation of some magnificent five-star concert act (perhaps going a bit longer than 9 minutes). It became something like you'd expect in Vegas for some Brittney Spears-type act, and less than a five-star moment.
Complaints? A number of Germans whined about the act. Some complaints were over the political slant in the act (a Palestinian flag being shown). The network folks claim this was not supposed to be part of the act.
The cost of her being there? Roughly a million dollars.
I think part of the problem is that Madonna's 'hay-day' was the 1980s/1990s, and most watching the ESC....just weren't from that generation.
Sunday, May 19, 2019
Chatter over Railways
I sat and watched a news piece this morning over the German railway system (oddly coming up each week now as a national news topic), but this item was over something that few people ever discuss....bridges.
Most people never think about it, but there are over 26,000 railway bridges in Germany today. It might surprise you....that at least 9,000 of them are one-hundred years old or older.
So the Bahn has to go out every three years by regulation, and test them. Those in poor condition....get on a rehab or replacement plan. Right now on the list? Projects are (not just bridges but track as well) going up to around 28 billion Euro....a fair sum.
Part of the big saga over the national railway system? By the time you add in the complaints, the trains themselves, overcrowding, late deliveries, cancellations, the tracks and the bridges....it's a five-star problem now confronting the German public.
Most people never think about it, but there are over 26,000 railway bridges in Germany today. It might surprise you....that at least 9,000 of them are one-hundred years old or older.
So the Bahn has to go out every three years by regulation, and test them. Those in poor condition....get on a rehab or replacement plan. Right now on the list? Projects are (not just bridges but track as well) going up to around 28 billion Euro....a fair sum.
Part of the big saga over the national railway system? By the time you add in the complaints, the trains themselves, overcrowding, late deliveries, cancellations, the tracks and the bridges....it's a five-star problem now confronting the German public.
Explaining This Austria 'Situation'
The Austrian government, after the October 2017 election, ended up in a coalition government. The OVP Party ended up with 31-percent of the vote (they are right-of-center types). They partnered with the FPO Party (far-right) who had 26-percent of the vote (they were actually in third-place). The Greens did awful (getting around 3-percent of the vote).
In this partnership deal.....the head of the FPO (Heinz-Christian Strache) ended up with the Vice-Chancellor job.
So in the past week.....this video comes out with Strache sitting in a room and offering Austrian government contracts to a Russian investor.
This all led to a crisis meeting, and finally the OVP Party said enough.....letting the coalition dissolve, and ordering up a new national election.
Date? Unknown....but probably by late August.
The hype? A number of German journalists are suggesting that this will bring down the FPO Party entirely, and sweep in the Social Democratic Party (left of center). There is a problem here in that a large number of people who voted for the FPO in the last election.....tend to still be very negative about immigration and asylum.....which the Social Democrats aren't exactly offering anything to attract that 26-percent or any element of that group over. So I'm not really buying much into this story.
An odd part of this approaching election? From the five top parties (there are eleven additional parties out there as well), at least four of the main candidates leading the parties are known.....are led by women. An accident or just luck, or planned out? Unknown.
So lets get back to this video and the corruption scandal. Back in July 2017....several months BEFORE the election, there was a meeting set up in Ibiza, Spain. Strache shows up with a second party associate. They are there to some gal who claims she's the niece of a Russian oligarch. We are left in the dark about this woman posing as the niece, and the name of the Russian oligarch mentioned. She had cameras set up and picked up the entire offer of insider Austrian contracts.
Why didn't she offer the tape before the October 2017 election? No one can explain that.
Why post the tape out now, just prior to the EU election? No one can explain that.
How did she get an invitation relied onto Strache to arrange this meeting....being a virtual unknown to him? No one can explain that.
The fact that one German comedian knew of the tape at least six to eight weeks prior to the public release? Yeah, that's an odd part of this story, and leads one to suspect that various non-Austrians might have been part of the planning on this episode and it was a long-term deal.
So will this election flip the government over to something else? I would suggest three factors at work. First, the NEOS Party (getting 5.3-percent in the 2017 election) is a relatively new party and has had some growth in public recognition. It's possible that they might take two or three points off the SPO folks. Second, there's still hostility brewing in Austrian over immigration.....that hasn't decreased a single bit in the last two years. Third, eventually....someone is going to ask about the fake Russian Oligarch gal, who set her into the game, and why it took two years before the tape appeared in public. This might lead some to ask about the scandal to the scandal.
In an amusing way, this was Russian collusion....faked-up.
In this partnership deal.....the head of the FPO (Heinz-Christian Strache) ended up with the Vice-Chancellor job.
So in the past week.....this video comes out with Strache sitting in a room and offering Austrian government contracts to a Russian investor.
This all led to a crisis meeting, and finally the OVP Party said enough.....letting the coalition dissolve, and ordering up a new national election.
Date? Unknown....but probably by late August.
The hype? A number of German journalists are suggesting that this will bring down the FPO Party entirely, and sweep in the Social Democratic Party (left of center). There is a problem here in that a large number of people who voted for the FPO in the last election.....tend to still be very negative about immigration and asylum.....which the Social Democrats aren't exactly offering anything to attract that 26-percent or any element of that group over. So I'm not really buying much into this story.
An odd part of this approaching election? From the five top parties (there are eleven additional parties out there as well), at least four of the main candidates leading the parties are known.....are led by women. An accident or just luck, or planned out? Unknown.
So lets get back to this video and the corruption scandal. Back in July 2017....several months BEFORE the election, there was a meeting set up in Ibiza, Spain. Strache shows up with a second party associate. They are there to some gal who claims she's the niece of a Russian oligarch. We are left in the dark about this woman posing as the niece, and the name of the Russian oligarch mentioned. She had cameras set up and picked up the entire offer of insider Austrian contracts.
Why didn't she offer the tape before the October 2017 election? No one can explain that.
Why post the tape out now, just prior to the EU election? No one can explain that.
How did she get an invitation relied onto Strache to arrange this meeting....being a virtual unknown to him? No one can explain that.
The fact that one German comedian knew of the tape at least six to eight weeks prior to the public release? Yeah, that's an odd part of this story, and leads one to suspect that various non-Austrians might have been part of the planning on this episode and it was a long-term deal.
So will this election flip the government over to something else? I would suggest three factors at work. First, the NEOS Party (getting 5.3-percent in the 2017 election) is a relatively new party and has had some growth in public recognition. It's possible that they might take two or three points off the SPO folks. Second, there's still hostility brewing in Austrian over immigration.....that hasn't decreased a single bit in the last two years. Third, eventually....someone is going to ask about the fake Russian Oligarch gal, who set her into the game, and why it took two years before the tape appeared in public. This might lead some to ask about the scandal to the scandal.
In an amusing way, this was Russian collusion....faked-up.
Saturday, May 18, 2019
A Story of German Guilt But Not So Much German Fault
This is one of those historical German stories that I tell....which leads you to some beliefs, and a twist or two.
Back in 1484....the kings court of King John II, laid out a commission to a Portuguese guy by the name of Diogo Cao. He was 32 years old at this point....considered an efficient navigator (a guy with maps) and had explored to some degree.
Basically, what King John II wanted was a route to India. This was eight years prior to Columbus.
As part of this journey, Cao's ship was to carry stone crosses (Padroes) to identify an area as they came upon it.....as King John II territory. Conquered lands....so to speak, or just plain 'markers'.
So Cao came upon what is identified as Cross Cape, Namibia today. They dragged the stone cross to the sand dune area overlooking the Atlantic Ocean, and for roughly four-hundred years....that cross sat there.
Around 1884, the Germans (under Chancellor Bismarck) started a settlement (maybe up to around 2,000 Germans) there in Namibia. Around nine years pass, and one day....someone (never known who) settled upon the idea of removing the stone cross and transporting it to the German Historical Museum. Two to three years pass, and a replica monument (German-made) is erected.
I assume there is some ceremony but little is said about this second erection or how things went that day.
It was not quiet the same as the original. Folks noticed this, and various comments existed about the newer and 'lesser' stone cross.
So roughly 110 years go by, and some private donations flow in.....to buy up a new stone cross (a better one). It was erected, and oddly enough....the old stone cross (the replacement one) still sits there.
Now I bring up this whole story about the cross business because this week.....some German committee of PhD folks and museum curators decided that original King John II stone cross (sitting in the German museum for over 140 years) has been requested back by the Namibian people. The museum folks agreed, and this week signed the paperwork to ship it back.
So three stone crosses there next to each other? No one says. The condition of this 500-year-old cross? Unknown.
Should there even be any German guilt? This stone cross wasn't even representing the Kaiser or German government. There was a German who made the decision to remove the King John II cross, but that's about the extent of 'guilt'.
Back in 1484....the kings court of King John II, laid out a commission to a Portuguese guy by the name of Diogo Cao. He was 32 years old at this point....considered an efficient navigator (a guy with maps) and had explored to some degree.
Basically, what King John II wanted was a route to India. This was eight years prior to Columbus.
As part of this journey, Cao's ship was to carry stone crosses (Padroes) to identify an area as they came upon it.....as King John II territory. Conquered lands....so to speak, or just plain 'markers'.
So Cao came upon what is identified as Cross Cape, Namibia today. They dragged the stone cross to the sand dune area overlooking the Atlantic Ocean, and for roughly four-hundred years....that cross sat there.
Around 1884, the Germans (under Chancellor Bismarck) started a settlement (maybe up to around 2,000 Germans) there in Namibia. Around nine years pass, and one day....someone (never known who) settled upon the idea of removing the stone cross and transporting it to the German Historical Museum. Two to three years pass, and a replica monument (German-made) is erected.
I assume there is some ceremony but little is said about this second erection or how things went that day.
It was not quiet the same as the original. Folks noticed this, and various comments existed about the newer and 'lesser' stone cross.
So roughly 110 years go by, and some private donations flow in.....to buy up a new stone cross (a better one). It was erected, and oddly enough....the old stone cross (the replacement one) still sits there.
Now I bring up this whole story about the cross business because this week.....some German committee of PhD folks and museum curators decided that original King John II stone cross (sitting in the German museum for over 140 years) has been requested back by the Namibian people. The museum folks agreed, and this week signed the paperwork to ship it back.
So three stone crosses there next to each other? No one says. The condition of this 500-year-old cross? Unknown.
Should there even be any German guilt? This stone cross wasn't even representing the Kaiser or German government. There was a German who made the decision to remove the King John II cross, but that's about the extent of 'guilt'.
What's the Difference Between German and American Political Parties?
First, off the bat....let's lay out the German card that multiple parties exist. Yes, roughly seven parties probably make up 90-percent of the general public political interest, but but another thirty-to-forty parties exist to be fringe parties, and gather votes in city, state and national elections.
So, let's go to my five observations on the differences:
1. Membership matters. In your local village, the major parties will have a 'unit' and there's a meeting roughly every month where you gather your members at some pub or city meeting point....talk over the agenda....pay your membership fee, and feel positive over the direction of the party.
So in a town of 2,000 residents (figure 400 are under 18 years old).....you can imagine that 20 to 60 folks are probably full-up SPD Party members. In a city like Wiesbaden, the Green Party membership might add up to around 500 members (285,000 residents).
2. Members vote. You can only have a say in the party politics, and establish agendas....if you are a member. Remember....part of the this meeting business is to vote for an agenda that will go before the national Party membership. If those 75,000 Green Party members say such-and-such issue is a number one problem situation....then it doesn't matter if the top three members of the Green Party are negative about this idea.....the idea goes forward because of the national vote within the party.
3. You can't appear out of thin air. You've been the CEO of some business for a decade and gotten lots of attention via interviews, and suddenly you want to announce your candidacy for Premier-President of the Saarland (the governor of Saarbrucken)? No, it's not going to happen.
You need to be part of a party apparatus and been progressing up through the local, regional, state, and national levels. All of the people that you see within the seven parties.....are mostly people who've been in politics for a minimum of a decade....some going on thirty years.
4. No one survives scandal. You can look over the past fifty years, and find that virtually every single German political figure who has a scandal to develop.....falls from grace. This is one of the reasons why Germans view Trump, insist up on multiples of scandal, and stand there shocked that the scandal doesn't take him down. Parties will walk into the midst of a scandal and literally fire you from the party.....to cleanse the situation and ensure public trust.
5. These quarterly national meetings. Virtually all of the German parties will have a quarterly meeting where the various topics are discussed.....big-stage speeches are given by the top ten members.....and PR is accomplished via public TV displays. These occur over weekends.....starting usually on Friday evening, run through all of Saturday, and wrap up by mid-day on Sunday. If you want to see the dynamics of politics in Germany.....you have to pay attention to what is said at these weekend episodes, and how people reacted.
So, let's go to my five observations on the differences:
1. Membership matters. In your local village, the major parties will have a 'unit' and there's a meeting roughly every month where you gather your members at some pub or city meeting point....talk over the agenda....pay your membership fee, and feel positive over the direction of the party.
So in a town of 2,000 residents (figure 400 are under 18 years old).....you can imagine that 20 to 60 folks are probably full-up SPD Party members. In a city like Wiesbaden, the Green Party membership might add up to around 500 members (285,000 residents).
2. Members vote. You can only have a say in the party politics, and establish agendas....if you are a member. Remember....part of the this meeting business is to vote for an agenda that will go before the national Party membership. If those 75,000 Green Party members say such-and-such issue is a number one problem situation....then it doesn't matter if the top three members of the Green Party are negative about this idea.....the idea goes forward because of the national vote within the party.
3. You can't appear out of thin air. You've been the CEO of some business for a decade and gotten lots of attention via interviews, and suddenly you want to announce your candidacy for Premier-President of the Saarland (the governor of Saarbrucken)? No, it's not going to happen.
You need to be part of a party apparatus and been progressing up through the local, regional, state, and national levels. All of the people that you see within the seven parties.....are mostly people who've been in politics for a minimum of a decade....some going on thirty years.
4. No one survives scandal. You can look over the past fifty years, and find that virtually every single German political figure who has a scandal to develop.....falls from grace. This is one of the reasons why Germans view Trump, insist up on multiples of scandal, and stand there shocked that the scandal doesn't take him down. Parties will walk into the midst of a scandal and literally fire you from the party.....to cleanse the situation and ensure public trust.
5. These quarterly national meetings. Virtually all of the German parties will have a quarterly meeting where the various topics are discussed.....big-stage speeches are given by the top ten members.....and PR is accomplished via public TV displays. These occur over weekends.....starting usually on Friday evening, run through all of Saturday, and wrap up by mid-day on Sunday. If you want to see the dynamics of politics in Germany.....you have to pay attention to what is said at these weekend episodes, and how people reacted.
Bremen Story
Bremen is holding a city election in about a week, and it will lay out the significant change that has occurred with German politics. It's a city of 550,000 and has been a SPD Party stronghold for decades (since the war ended). Bremen is one of the three cities in Germany which are city-states (Hamburg and Berlin are the other two). So it's not just a city election....it's a state election as well.
Numbers on polling? Well...back in 2015, the SPD won easily with around 39-percent of the vote. The CDU was a distant 3rd with 20-percent. The Greens were in 2nd place with 22-percent.
Right now? The SPD is marginally pulling around 24-percent, and the CDU rests at the top with 26-percent. The Greens? They've fallen back to around 18-percent. The odds are heavily in favor of the CDU winning for the first time in the city....in seventy years.
The coalition? Well....no one can say for sure. It appears the only options are CDU-SPD or CDU-Greens-FDP.
What this suggests on the SPD Party? Ever since the 2017 national election, they've been unable to bundle up a message and convince the general public to buy off on their dynamics.
This election won't be a front-page story, but it does tell a woeful tale on trends.
Numbers on polling? Well...back in 2015, the SPD won easily with around 39-percent of the vote. The CDU was a distant 3rd with 20-percent. The Greens were in 2nd place with 22-percent.
Right now? The SPD is marginally pulling around 24-percent, and the CDU rests at the top with 26-percent. The Greens? They've fallen back to around 18-percent. The odds are heavily in favor of the CDU winning for the first time in the city....in seventy years.
The coalition? Well....no one can say for sure. It appears the only options are CDU-SPD or CDU-Greens-FDP.
What this suggests on the SPD Party? Ever since the 2017 national election, they've been unable to bundle up a message and convince the general public to buy off on their dynamics.
This election won't be a front-page story, but it does tell a woeful tale on trends.
Taxation Chatter
I sat and watched a short finance news piece this morning on the German government taxation.
For those who don't know....there's an anticipated recession projected to start in 2019 in Germany, and a fair-sized hole with taxation money.
The key people running the finance 'bucket' for Germany (because of the coalition) is the SPD Party, with Finance Minister Olaf Scholz running the show. He's the former mayor of Hamburg, and considered the likely candidate for the SPD Party in 2021 for Chancellor.
So the discussion going on behind closed doors is that new taxation will have to be created. One of the items discussed.....more taxation on tobacco products.
The gimmick? This gets to an interesting scenario. Presently, cheap cigarettes run around 5.5 Euro (for 20 in a pack), and the more expensive going to 6.0 to 6.5 Euro (figure $6.60 to $7.25). It's not cheap. If you buy loose tobacco and make/roll your own smokes? They discount the case, and it's about 25-percent less for the same pack of smokes.
Scholz wants a five-phase rise in taxation on smokes. Each single step up, would bring in 200 to 300 million Euro extra. At the end of this phased approach, there would be a billion-plus Euro coming in each year, on top of the normal and present tax (14.3 billion Euro a year).
Taxation same for E-cigarettes? No. He didn't touch them.
What'll happen (if the CDU agrees with this idea)? Germans will shake their heads, with one of two scenarios likely to play out.
1. More black-market cigarettes will arrive in Germany, and miss taxation entirely.
2. Most everyone will shift over to E-cigarettes, and the 14.3 billion Euro a year via regular tobacco will disappear entirely. You can figure three years into the future, there's some massive taxation rise that will occur with E-cigarettes.
In either scenario, the government loses income and is put into a worse situation.
Taxation troubles likely to be a monthly political discussion and long-term issue? Unfortunately, yes. After you get past asylum/immigration, climate change, grumbling over the train system, the high cost of heating....taxation starts to come up and public frustration is apparent.
For those who don't know....there's an anticipated recession projected to start in 2019 in Germany, and a fair-sized hole with taxation money.
The key people running the finance 'bucket' for Germany (because of the coalition) is the SPD Party, with Finance Minister Olaf Scholz running the show. He's the former mayor of Hamburg, and considered the likely candidate for the SPD Party in 2021 for Chancellor.
So the discussion going on behind closed doors is that new taxation will have to be created. One of the items discussed.....more taxation on tobacco products.
The gimmick? This gets to an interesting scenario. Presently, cheap cigarettes run around 5.5 Euro (for 20 in a pack), and the more expensive going to 6.0 to 6.5 Euro (figure $6.60 to $7.25). It's not cheap. If you buy loose tobacco and make/roll your own smokes? They discount the case, and it's about 25-percent less for the same pack of smokes.
Scholz wants a five-phase rise in taxation on smokes. Each single step up, would bring in 200 to 300 million Euro extra. At the end of this phased approach, there would be a billion-plus Euro coming in each year, on top of the normal and present tax (14.3 billion Euro a year).
Taxation same for E-cigarettes? No. He didn't touch them.
What'll happen (if the CDU agrees with this idea)? Germans will shake their heads, with one of two scenarios likely to play out.
1. More black-market cigarettes will arrive in Germany, and miss taxation entirely.
2. Most everyone will shift over to E-cigarettes, and the 14.3 billion Euro a year via regular tobacco will disappear entirely. You can figure three years into the future, there's some massive taxation rise that will occur with E-cigarettes.
In either scenario, the government loses income and is put into a worse situation.
Taxation troubles likely to be a monthly political discussion and long-term issue? Unfortunately, yes. After you get past asylum/immigration, climate change, grumbling over the train system, the high cost of heating....taxation starts to come up and public frustration is apparent.
E-Cars Chatter
I was looking at a German auto news piece this morning over electric vehicles. Some folks crunched the numbers and it'll probably reach 90,000 registered battery-cars by the end of 2019 (if the trend holds).
If you go back a couple of years, there was a big speech of Chancellor Merkels where she hyped up a belief that they'd be at the million-car point by this time. Obviously, the thrill and desire just isn't there. So you have to ask why.
I'm one of those people who've gone and driven a battery-car (the Audi E-Tron). I was fairly impressed with the quality. My issue was the mpc (miles per charge), with my numbers (on paper) coming to around 250 to 260 miles. Charging time? Well....that didn't impress me that much. If you had the super-charger installed into your house, then it was in the 30-minute range (but that only got you to the 80-percent level). The regular charge off normal house current? In the 12 to 13 hour range.
I walked away from Audi on that deal (particularly after the quoted price). It's ten years away before they hit the improved battery development or the pricing for a vehicle that I would be happy with.
I'm one of the people who went to the solar energy show (in Munich) and observed the options that might work on the house. The panels have taken a big step forward in the past five years. Based on everything, I'd need to spend in the range of 20,000 Euro ($25,000) to put the panels up and get the right kind of system in the basement. If I had the battery car, it'd be worth it. Without the battery car, the pay-off isn't there to make it worth the effort.
Then I come to the big questions which the German authorities can't answer. If people were to switch over, and gas vehicles lessened.....wouldn't gas taxes go away or dry-up, and if they did.....how the hell would you find the tax base for roads and bridges? Oh yeah.....via utility taxes? No. It'd have to be a direct battery-car tax....probably in the range of 1,000 Euro a year. The disposal of batteries? That's another topic often avoided. You'd have to assess the guy at least a hundred Euro on that fee....maybe even on up to 300 Euro.
Belief in the German grid? Nuke energy being rapidly pushed out and coal energy going away in ten to fifteen years? Then....do I trust the grid? No, I'd have to go to solar energy because of the decline of trust.
I think a lot of Germans just look at the gimmick of battery cars and shake their head. This government push is an amusing idea but ten to twenty years away from reality.
If you go back a couple of years, there was a big speech of Chancellor Merkels where she hyped up a belief that they'd be at the million-car point by this time. Obviously, the thrill and desire just isn't there. So you have to ask why.
I'm one of those people who've gone and driven a battery-car (the Audi E-Tron). I was fairly impressed with the quality. My issue was the mpc (miles per charge), with my numbers (on paper) coming to around 250 to 260 miles. Charging time? Well....that didn't impress me that much. If you had the super-charger installed into your house, then it was in the 30-minute range (but that only got you to the 80-percent level). The regular charge off normal house current? In the 12 to 13 hour range.
I walked away from Audi on that deal (particularly after the quoted price). It's ten years away before they hit the improved battery development or the pricing for a vehicle that I would be happy with.
I'm one of the people who went to the solar energy show (in Munich) and observed the options that might work on the house. The panels have taken a big step forward in the past five years. Based on everything, I'd need to spend in the range of 20,000 Euro ($25,000) to put the panels up and get the right kind of system in the basement. If I had the battery car, it'd be worth it. Without the battery car, the pay-off isn't there to make it worth the effort.
Then I come to the big questions which the German authorities can't answer. If people were to switch over, and gas vehicles lessened.....wouldn't gas taxes go away or dry-up, and if they did.....how the hell would you find the tax base for roads and bridges? Oh yeah.....via utility taxes? No. It'd have to be a direct battery-car tax....probably in the range of 1,000 Euro a year. The disposal of batteries? That's another topic often avoided. You'd have to assess the guy at least a hundred Euro on that fee....maybe even on up to 300 Euro.
Belief in the German grid? Nuke energy being rapidly pushed out and coal energy going away in ten to fifteen years? Then....do I trust the grid? No, I'd have to go to solar energy because of the decline of trust.
I think a lot of Germans just look at the gimmick of battery cars and shake their head. This government push is an amusing idea but ten to twenty years away from reality.
Friday, May 17, 2019
The EU Election and the Wahl-O-Mat
Around 16 years ago in Germany.....some computer app folks and political science folks sat down and developed this simple question and answer app for people who were confused about 'who' to vote for (in terms of political parties).
You see, in Germany, there's typically forty-plus political parties running. There's the main six or seven parties, and then roughly thirty-to-forty additional parties. The additional parties, for the simple discussion.....rarely come up but you might be a fringe kinda 'guy' and think that you need 'help'.
So there's forty-odd questions or priorities put out there by the political scientists, and they ask the parties on their position....either they agree or disagree, and 'how much' (they might to the utter extreme on asylum questions (in terms of accepting more) or the utter extreme (absolutely no more).
Having taken the Wahl-O-Mat test before, I will state that it's simple enough for a guy with a 8th-grade education to understand, and the questions are not 'tricky' or weird. At the end, it'll ask you for up to eight party picks and measure your answers against their stance.
In my case, using the 2017 Wahl-O-Mat.....I was told that the Pirate Party was around a 60-to-65 percent chance pick. The Green Party....around five-to-seven percent chance.
How many people use the Wahl-O-Mat? Total unknown. I have my doubts that in the past ten years.....maybe up to five percent of the adult population might have used it to 'grade' themselves on where they stand.
Here in this EU election? The Wahl-O-Mat has been discussed a good bit by journalists and hyped....perhaps hoping that it'll convince people to come out and vote.
The problem I see is that probably fifty percent of the German public has an extreme position in their mind on asylum and migration, I even go and suspect that for each person who is extremely favorable on asylum....there's likely two Germans on the extreme side opposing this opinion. If these folks regard this as the next important topic and biggest factor on the Wahl-O-Mat.....then it will lead each to the far extreme of the political spectrum for each group. This is the type of divided society and vote that you'd probably like to avoid.
You see, in Germany, there's typically forty-plus political parties running. There's the main six or seven parties, and then roughly thirty-to-forty additional parties. The additional parties, for the simple discussion.....rarely come up but you might be a fringe kinda 'guy' and think that you need 'help'.
So there's forty-odd questions or priorities put out there by the political scientists, and they ask the parties on their position....either they agree or disagree, and 'how much' (they might to the utter extreme on asylum questions (in terms of accepting more) or the utter extreme (absolutely no more).
Having taken the Wahl-O-Mat test before, I will state that it's simple enough for a guy with a 8th-grade education to understand, and the questions are not 'tricky' or weird. At the end, it'll ask you for up to eight party picks and measure your answers against their stance.
In my case, using the 2017 Wahl-O-Mat.....I was told that the Pirate Party was around a 60-to-65 percent chance pick. The Green Party....around five-to-seven percent chance.
How many people use the Wahl-O-Mat? Total unknown. I have my doubts that in the past ten years.....maybe up to five percent of the adult population might have used it to 'grade' themselves on where they stand.
Here in this EU election? The Wahl-O-Mat has been discussed a good bit by journalists and hyped....perhaps hoping that it'll convince people to come out and vote.
The problem I see is that probably fifty percent of the German public has an extreme position in their mind on asylum and migration, I even go and suspect that for each person who is extremely favorable on asylum....there's likely two Germans on the extreme side opposing this opinion. If these folks regard this as the next important topic and biggest factor on the Wahl-O-Mat.....then it will lead each to the far extreme of the political spectrum for each group. This is the type of divided society and vote that you'd probably like to avoid.
Germany and US-News Hype
How pumped up are Germans over the US? Well, almost nightly, there's some political intrigue news, economic story, or public interest story about the US on national public TV news (ARD or ZDF). I noticed two nights ago for the prime-time news on ARD's 8 PM news....Alabama became the number two news item of the day (it's abortion episode passed).
So here's the other angle of this, which I find interesting. If you view ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, or Fox News....unless there's some terror act....Germany is never mentioned in the nightly news. If you watch CNN International....Merkel might come up two or three times a week but there's really nothing much ever uttered.
You can go and ask a hundred working-class Americans about Germany, and unless they spent time while in the military in Germany....the only things they know are: (1) Berlin or Bonn is the capital (some might still think West Germany exists), (2) Merkel is the 'president' (she's actually the Chancellor), and (3) autobahns are speed-free (not really true, but they believe it).
What does this really say here? I would suggest five observations:
1. German intellectuals might care and get all hyped-up but the common German working-man isn't that peeved or caring about US news.
2. If you asked German teens over their US views, they go to NBA action, Kim Kardashian, storyline of Flash, Marvel characters, and Netflix TV show options.
3. You can actually find various German intellectuals and journalists who can name at least a dozen US Senators or Congressmen (mostly all Democrats). The same crowd seem to follow the New York Times and Washington Post on a day-by-day basis.
4. Most Germans who get entangled in US political news....seem to feel that Germany is 'enlightened' and above all that political stuff....mostly because they are intelligent, bright, and more developed as a nation.
5. This attempt to lead to a dividing line? It's more than obvious.
German shock that they aren't ever mentioned in the US news? I explained this once....that there just isn't much German hype in the news. The German wanted an explanation. It's pretty simple....I explained. We tend to look more at local news in our community or our state....and then to national news. Some international pieces will occasionally come up but it's just not that big of a deal.
So here's the other angle of this, which I find interesting. If you view ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, or Fox News....unless there's some terror act....Germany is never mentioned in the nightly news. If you watch CNN International....Merkel might come up two or three times a week but there's really nothing much ever uttered.
You can go and ask a hundred working-class Americans about Germany, and unless they spent time while in the military in Germany....the only things they know are: (1) Berlin or Bonn is the capital (some might still think West Germany exists), (2) Merkel is the 'president' (she's actually the Chancellor), and (3) autobahns are speed-free (not really true, but they believe it).
What does this really say here? I would suggest five observations:
1. German intellectuals might care and get all hyped-up but the common German working-man isn't that peeved or caring about US news.
2. If you asked German teens over their US views, they go to NBA action, Kim Kardashian, storyline of Flash, Marvel characters, and Netflix TV show options.
3. You can actually find various German intellectuals and journalists who can name at least a dozen US Senators or Congressmen (mostly all Democrats). The same crowd seem to follow the New York Times and Washington Post on a day-by-day basis.
4. Most Germans who get entangled in US political news....seem to feel that Germany is 'enlightened' and above all that political stuff....mostly because they are intelligent, bright, and more developed as a nation.
5. This attempt to lead to a dividing line? It's more than obvious.
German shock that they aren't ever mentioned in the US news? I explained this once....that there just isn't much German hype in the news. The German wanted an explanation. It's pretty simple....I explained. We tend to look more at local news in our community or our state....and then to national news. Some international pieces will occasionally come up but it's just not that big of a deal.
Voting Story
This morning, the German Bundestag stood and had a vote over a change to the voting rights law. So now, via the vote.....those Germans in institutions or under 'supervision'.....have the right to vote.
Numbers? The news media says 80,000 Germans are affected and will get the right to vote. The range of this? Well....at one end would be emotionally unstable folks or those who can't handle stress well. At the other end would be paranoid schizophrenic folks, and those who are a threat to themselves or others.
Influence by the controlling authority over the new voter? Well....the law kinda stated that other than informing them of an election and providing basic information....that's it. You can't suggest to the paranoid schizophrenic guy that the SPD Party is 'super', or that the Green Party would be helpful for your political agenda.
Statistics to suggest how the 80,000 would vote? Non-existent, and I doubt if anyone really wants to go and collect this data.
How many will actually vote? That's another element of an unknown variety. You could have the case where less than 500 of the 80,000 go and vote in the 2021 national election.
Could a hyped-up national election drive some paranoid schizophrenic folks to be more paranoid or crazier-than-normal? That's a curious question. It's possible that you might even have two-hundred folks from one single institution who band together as a 'party', and forward one of their members to be a Chancellor candidate. This might catch on via social media and suddenly you have some fringe party appearing out of nowhere, with a paranoid schizophrenic member getting 7-percent of the national vote.
I'm sure that the Bundestag folks didn't mean for something like this to happen, but you often end up with consequences that you just didn't comprehend.
Numbers? The news media says 80,000 Germans are affected and will get the right to vote. The range of this? Well....at one end would be emotionally unstable folks or those who can't handle stress well. At the other end would be paranoid schizophrenic folks, and those who are a threat to themselves or others.
Influence by the controlling authority over the new voter? Well....the law kinda stated that other than informing them of an election and providing basic information....that's it. You can't suggest to the paranoid schizophrenic guy that the SPD Party is 'super', or that the Green Party would be helpful for your political agenda.
Statistics to suggest how the 80,000 would vote? Non-existent, and I doubt if anyone really wants to go and collect this data.
How many will actually vote? That's another element of an unknown variety. You could have the case where less than 500 of the 80,000 go and vote in the 2021 national election.
Could a hyped-up national election drive some paranoid schizophrenic folks to be more paranoid or crazier-than-normal? That's a curious question. It's possible that you might even have two-hundred folks from one single institution who band together as a 'party', and forward one of their members to be a Chancellor candidate. This might catch on via social media and suddenly you have some fringe party appearing out of nowhere, with a paranoid schizophrenic member getting 7-percent of the national vote.
I'm sure that the Bundestag folks didn't mean for something like this to happen, but you often end up with consequences that you just didn't comprehend.
E-Scooter Day
Today, the German Federal Council will vote and establish the 'national' policy on e-scooters.
The original plan? Well....there were supposed to be two classes of e-scooters, with speed taken into consideration, with one allowed on bike paths only (the higher speed type) and the other on sidewalks (the extreme low speed type). That plan in the past week....got dumped.
The present plan to be voted upon.....one single class of e-scooter, and ONLY allowed on bike paths or streets (no sidewalks).
One other interesting rule....they have to be insured..
The need for a license? Non-existent (so far).
Kids? Well, that got into the package as well. From age 12 to 14, you can ride the lower speed type (12 kph or 7.5 mph). After fourteen years old, the sky is the limit.
Helmets? Oddly, that got into the mix, while you don't have to wear a helmet for bicycles.....you will have to wear one for e-scooters (I know, there's no logic to this at all).
What'll happen next (as they pass this)? 2019 and 2020 will be this massive e-scooter frenzy in Germany....from metropolitan areas to rural villages. These 12-year-old kids obeying the law? Forget that.....they will all be blasting away at 40 to 60 kph. Just in Wiesbaden alone, I'm betting that 10,000 e-scooters are active and running by late summer this year.
How long this goes with the license-crowd demanding some procedure? By spring of 2020, I expect some statistic to exist with a dozen dead folks, and over 3,000 injuries in one brief year. This will push the Bundestag into 'saving' the public and establishing some type of license procedure or class.
The original plan? Well....there were supposed to be two classes of e-scooters, with speed taken into consideration, with one allowed on bike paths only (the higher speed type) and the other on sidewalks (the extreme low speed type). That plan in the past week....got dumped.
The present plan to be voted upon.....one single class of e-scooter, and ONLY allowed on bike paths or streets (no sidewalks).
One other interesting rule....they have to be insured..
The need for a license? Non-existent (so far).
Kids? Well, that got into the package as well. From age 12 to 14, you can ride the lower speed type (12 kph or 7.5 mph). After fourteen years old, the sky is the limit.
Helmets? Oddly, that got into the mix, while you don't have to wear a helmet for bicycles.....you will have to wear one for e-scooters (I know, there's no logic to this at all).
What'll happen next (as they pass this)? 2019 and 2020 will be this massive e-scooter frenzy in Germany....from metropolitan areas to rural villages. These 12-year-old kids obeying the law? Forget that.....they will all be blasting away at 40 to 60 kph. Just in Wiesbaden alone, I'm betting that 10,000 e-scooters are active and running by late summer this year.
How long this goes with the license-crowd demanding some procedure? By spring of 2020, I expect some statistic to exist with a dozen dead folks, and over 3,000 injuries in one brief year. This will push the Bundestag into 'saving' the public and establishing some type of license procedure or class.
Thursday, May 16, 2019
Alienation from the Bourgeois Life Practice?
I was reading through a journalistic piece today, from a Hessen news item over homelessness, and this phrase 'alienation from the bourgeois life practice' came up. I had to go and translate it.....to make sure I fully understood it.
So to explain part of the issues over homelessness to the general public....the journalist went to the normal list of things that rendered you a pretty big mess. The list includes drug addiction, alcoholism, family issues, and then the alienation from the bourgeois 'thing'.
Yes, there are homeless people (even in the US as well) who are attracted to the Bohemian lifestyle, and anti-materialistic, anti-conventional, and anti-value.
Most people (Germans included) have a problem in viewing this lifestyle or 'habit'.
Adding to the issue....trying to convince such a guy or gal to 'give up' and become dependent again....to live in an apartment....to seek material things, is difficult.
The article kinda ends with the note....'the city seeks special care for such people'. I kinda laughed at that point....with the phrase suggesting that they'd be put into a facility (whether they liked the idea or not). Maybe some German guy is building up a mental holding facility for Bohemians, and there's bound to be some government contract for him to handle/hold such people.
So to explain part of the issues over homelessness to the general public....the journalist went to the normal list of things that rendered you a pretty big mess. The list includes drug addiction, alcoholism, family issues, and then the alienation from the bourgeois 'thing'.
Yes, there are homeless people (even in the US as well) who are attracted to the Bohemian lifestyle, and anti-materialistic, anti-conventional, and anti-value.
Most people (Germans included) have a problem in viewing this lifestyle or 'habit'.
Adding to the issue....trying to convince such a guy or gal to 'give up' and become dependent again....to live in an apartment....to seek material things, is difficult.
The article kinda ends with the note....'the city seeks special care for such people'. I kinda laughed at that point....with the phrase suggesting that they'd be put into a facility (whether they liked the idea or not). Maybe some German guy is building up a mental holding facility for Bohemians, and there's bound to be some government contract for him to handle/hold such people.
Craftsmanship Story
This got brought up on the German public news this morning....via a report from the ZDH (Zentralverband des Deutschen Handwerks)....the folks who review craftsmanship in Germany.
If you have some job that has come up in your house (installation of windows, replacement of a sink, masonary work).....then the waiting time now is around ten weeks, and it's growing.
Chief reason? Well, it goes to two situations: a shortage of younger apprentice kids, and the growing amount of work-load going on for the companies that exist.
My German wife had a electrical project from two years ago....amounting to around forty hours of a professional electrician. After reviewing the project, the guy in question accepted the job but laid out the waiting time (it'd be six weeks before he could get to the first part of the project), and with the division of the work....he cautioned that he wouldn't be done for at least four months. Yes, he was going to do four man-hours here, two man-hours there, and so-on. Six months from the first day of work....he had yet to complete the project. He was basically going from project to project over an entire week, and there had to be a minimum of fifteen different jobs going on. Just in driving time, he was wasting at least eight man-hours a week, but you couldn't tell the guy how stupid this was.
A national trend? There's talk of some reform (yet to come) where craftsmanship certificates will be easier to achieve. Some question this....that you'd end up with half-trained carpenters or tile-guys.
Personally, I think more self-help jobs will be the result out of this trend.
If you have some job that has come up in your house (installation of windows, replacement of a sink, masonary work).....then the waiting time now is around ten weeks, and it's growing.
Chief reason? Well, it goes to two situations: a shortage of younger apprentice kids, and the growing amount of work-load going on for the companies that exist.
My German wife had a electrical project from two years ago....amounting to around forty hours of a professional electrician. After reviewing the project, the guy in question accepted the job but laid out the waiting time (it'd be six weeks before he could get to the first part of the project), and with the division of the work....he cautioned that he wouldn't be done for at least four months. Yes, he was going to do four man-hours here, two man-hours there, and so-on. Six months from the first day of work....he had yet to complete the project. He was basically going from project to project over an entire week, and there had to be a minimum of fifteen different jobs going on. Just in driving time, he was wasting at least eight man-hours a week, but you couldn't tell the guy how stupid this was.
A national trend? There's talk of some reform (yet to come) where craftsmanship certificates will be easier to achieve. Some question this....that you'd end up with half-trained carpenters or tile-guys.
Personally, I think more self-help jobs will be the result out of this trend.
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Beer Coaster Story
So this story came up in Hessen for the small town east of Frankfurt.....Maintal. They have a migration agency in town, and it's their job to create a two-way street. They try to integrate foreigners into Hessen, and or orientate Hessens to be understanding of foreigners.
The chief of this group came up with this idea (costing 1,700 Euro or $2,200)....of creating beer 'coasters' (what your beer rests upon as it's delivered in a stein). The coasters? Well....they have all these interesting facts about Islam, and this is supposed to be an introduction to the townspeople (those who drink wine and beer) to sit and intellectually get into conversation about the 'new' Germans.
Roughly 5,000 of these were bought and distributed out 'freely' to local pubs and bars in the town.
It's come to pass that some Islamic groups have heard of this gimmick, and gone to some negative feeling about the beer coasters....mostly because it's about them, and used in a alcohol setting.
I sat and pondered over this. Most Germans work hard, and when they have two or three hours to chill out....they aren't exactly intellectually drawn to situations like this. Most would ask if this wasn't a waste of taxpayer funding, and find people in agreement.
But this drives what I've been talking about since 2014....that some pro-asylum and pro-migration Germans think 'your' problem (if you don't accept migration or immigration).....is that you just don't understand or grasp the subject. In their head, if you just understood Islam.....then you'd feel better about the migrants or 'new' Germans.
The chief of this group came up with this idea (costing 1,700 Euro or $2,200)....of creating beer 'coasters' (what your beer rests upon as it's delivered in a stein). The coasters? Well....they have all these interesting facts about Islam, and this is supposed to be an introduction to the townspeople (those who drink wine and beer) to sit and intellectually get into conversation about the 'new' Germans.
Roughly 5,000 of these were bought and distributed out 'freely' to local pubs and bars in the town.
It's come to pass that some Islamic groups have heard of this gimmick, and gone to some negative feeling about the beer coasters....mostly because it's about them, and used in a alcohol setting.
I sat and pondered over this. Most Germans work hard, and when they have two or three hours to chill out....they aren't exactly intellectually drawn to situations like this. Most would ask if this wasn't a waste of taxpayer funding, and find people in agreement.
But this drives what I've been talking about since 2014....that some pro-asylum and pro-migration Germans think 'your' problem (if you don't accept migration or immigration).....is that you just don't understand or grasp the subject. In their head, if you just understood Islam.....then you'd feel better about the migrants or 'new' Germans.
Pension Story
So if you were a German and had worked your entire life....ready to retire....your sum of a pension would end up around 450 to 500 Euro. Naturally, it's not enough to survive, and you'd have to go down to the local social office to beg off some kind of welfare-supplement deal. This has been on the minds of politicians for several years.
How many Germans fall into this category? Roughly three million.
The real fault of this issue? You can start and ask....how did a guy work minimum wage jobs for his entire life? The German system allows it. Raising the minimum wage? If you raise this....you end up with some form of inflation.
This week, there's chatter going on that the German government will invent some method of raising up your pension artificially.....say to 850 to 950 Euro a month. Where will the money come from? Regular taxation.
Creating another problem financially? Some people will go and suggest that this isn't the best idea to resolve the issue. The guy who worked his entire life at one or two steps above minimum wage, and has right now the 850-to-950 Euro a month pension? He has to be shaking his head. Via the sales tax, here this guy is....helping to sponsor the minimum wage folks, and nothing for himself.
The end? Maybe. But I suspect the bucket of money being used for this....will eventually get to a point of being too empty, and more taxation will have to occur.
How many Germans fall into this category? Roughly three million.
The real fault of this issue? You can start and ask....how did a guy work minimum wage jobs for his entire life? The German system allows it. Raising the minimum wage? If you raise this....you end up with some form of inflation.
This week, there's chatter going on that the German government will invent some method of raising up your pension artificially.....say to 850 to 950 Euro a month. Where will the money come from? Regular taxation.
Creating another problem financially? Some people will go and suggest that this isn't the best idea to resolve the issue. The guy who worked his entire life at one or two steps above minimum wage, and has right now the 850-to-950 Euro a month pension? He has to be shaking his head. Via the sales tax, here this guy is....helping to sponsor the minimum wage folks, and nothing for himself.
The end? Maybe. But I suspect the bucket of money being used for this....will eventually get to a point of being too empty, and more taxation will have to occur.
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Explaining the Wiesbaden Weapons-Free Zone
Wiesbaden here earlier in the spring, became the first German city with a law on the books to ban just about anything viewed as a weapon on city streets. But there is a bit of detail to the law.
First, the current zone is the shopping district (mid-town area). The law is written in a way that you could easily add the train station, bus-stops, major events or fests, or even shopping centers within the city limits. So far, nothing has been added....but if you had one single event or arrest to show the need....then they'd assemble the council....vote it up, and it'd be fully functional.
Time? Well....from 9 PM to 5 AM. Just about every single statisic collected....showed that it was after dark when these knife incidents occurred.
The banning choices? Kives, hammers, sharped-edged items, screwdrivers, clubs, baseball bats, sticks, axes, hatches, and gloves with a steel-filling.
The hefty fine? That's the interesting thing about this. They intend to take your money in a major way. If you claim to be 'worthless'.....they will send the guy over to view your apartment and find items to confiscate of value (like your TV or video game set).
Needing something like this a decade or two ago? No. That's the curious part of the story. All of this knife and bad-boy behavior business started up in the past five years....as migration took root, and young men started to meet in the after-hours....drink and indulge in drugs.
First, the current zone is the shopping district (mid-town area). The law is written in a way that you could easily add the train station, bus-stops, major events or fests, or even shopping centers within the city limits. So far, nothing has been added....but if you had one single event or arrest to show the need....then they'd assemble the council....vote it up, and it'd be fully functional.
Time? Well....from 9 PM to 5 AM. Just about every single statisic collected....showed that it was after dark when these knife incidents occurred.
The banning choices? Kives, hammers, sharped-edged items, screwdrivers, clubs, baseball bats, sticks, axes, hatches, and gloves with a steel-filling.
The hefty fine? That's the interesting thing about this. They intend to take your money in a major way. If you claim to be 'worthless'.....they will send the guy over to view your apartment and find items to confiscate of value (like your TV or video game set).
Needing something like this a decade or two ago? No. That's the curious part of the story. All of this knife and bad-boy behavior business started up in the past five years....as migration took root, and young men started to meet in the after-hours....drink and indulge in drugs.
This EU Election
In approximately two weeks, the EU legislative election occurs. This year (2019) is a bit different from the past couple of elections.
First, the BREXIT factor exists. Everyone in Europe (even in the UK) going back to the fall of 2018.....was told that the Brits were not going to participate in this election, and that they'd be 'OUT' by this point. Well....the experts and EU political folks were wrong.
How do things look in the UK? A new party out of thin air....called the BREXIT Party will likely take the majority of votes (some polling suggest 32-percent). It's possible that the UKIP party (right now fighting for 4-percent), might urge their folks at the last minute to go and vote BREXIT Party, and you could see possibly on up to 36 to 37 percent.
Second, there are right-wing parties all over Europe....existing mostly because of the German migration business from 2013 to now. Each country has their own view (some fairly negative) about migration and immigration, and it's charged-up people in various countries (especially Austria, Poland, Italy, etc).
Just in Germany alone, the AfD folks might be getting up around 12-to-13 percent of the vote. If you look across all of the EU, it's possible that the anti-migration related parties might get 20-percent of the total EU vote.
Third, the regular parties are starting to get worried about the influence of the right-wing in EU politics. Last night, Germany's public TV folks (ARD) ran a 45-minute prime-time piece which talked to the populism factor. It was a fairly negative piece over the AfD Party, and the others like it in Europe.....almost suggesting (without saying).....NAZI-like.
What generally worries the normal parties? In a normal EU election....60-percent of the public showing up is normal. Folks don't get charged up or that enthusiastic (especially in Germany). If the AfD folks did get their crowd hyped up and doubled the ones who showed up? Well, that's the general worry....this might go up to around 70-percent and only help AfD.
The humorous part of this whole story is that prior to 2013, the whole EU election business was just a casual election that the bulk of voters in Germany didn't feel that inspired about. So with the help (maybe a bit of incompetence from the CDU, SPD, and Green Parties) of politics and migration....this is now a fired-up election.
First, the BREXIT factor exists. Everyone in Europe (even in the UK) going back to the fall of 2018.....was told that the Brits were not going to participate in this election, and that they'd be 'OUT' by this point. Well....the experts and EU political folks were wrong.
How do things look in the UK? A new party out of thin air....called the BREXIT Party will likely take the majority of votes (some polling suggest 32-percent). It's possible that the UKIP party (right now fighting for 4-percent), might urge their folks at the last minute to go and vote BREXIT Party, and you could see possibly on up to 36 to 37 percent.
Second, there are right-wing parties all over Europe....existing mostly because of the German migration business from 2013 to now. Each country has their own view (some fairly negative) about migration and immigration, and it's charged-up people in various countries (especially Austria, Poland, Italy, etc).
Just in Germany alone, the AfD folks might be getting up around 12-to-13 percent of the vote. If you look across all of the EU, it's possible that the anti-migration related parties might get 20-percent of the total EU vote.
Third, the regular parties are starting to get worried about the influence of the right-wing in EU politics. Last night, Germany's public TV folks (ARD) ran a 45-minute prime-time piece which talked to the populism factor. It was a fairly negative piece over the AfD Party, and the others like it in Europe.....almost suggesting (without saying).....NAZI-like.
What generally worries the normal parties? In a normal EU election....60-percent of the public showing up is normal. Folks don't get charged up or that enthusiastic (especially in Germany). If the AfD folks did get their crowd hyped up and doubled the ones who showed up? Well, that's the general worry....this might go up to around 70-percent and only help AfD.
The humorous part of this whole story is that prior to 2013, the whole EU election business was just a casual election that the bulk of voters in Germany didn't feel that inspired about. So with the help (maybe a bit of incompetence from the CDU, SPD, and Green Parties) of politics and migration....this is now a fired-up election.
Being Grateful
When one brings up the topic of immigration and Austria.....it usually drives a very stimulating conversation. If you went to any European country and discussed how migration and asylum was handled in 2014/2015, and looked for a country that did a 180-degree twist....Austria is it.
They may have a Green Party President, but the Chancellor and the control of their Parliament operate under a coalition deal....the right-of-center OVP Party, and the far-right FPO Party.
This past week, the FPO folks in one province of Austria stood up and suggested a new idea....to have a 'Ten Commandments of Immigration'.
It starts off with 'you should learn the German language'. Most people (even Germans) will agree that it's a necessity....if you intend to stay.
But the last of the commandments centers on a curious suggestion....'you should live in gratitude to Austria' (for allowing you the chance to enter and stay).
For the pro-asylum and pro-migration crowd, this was a 'punch below the belt', and it's gotten them mostly hyped up.
The odds that this draft will pass beyond the province or become some national document? Zero chance. But it's driving an interesting and stimulating conversation. If you were some migrant on the road to a better life, who do you owe your prosperity or good luck upon? If you had a safer community, improved chances for economic happiness, and fundamental basic rights that were protected....shouldn't you be a little grateful?
Can we even suggest in this PC-conscious atmosphere that gratefulness can even exist now?
In some ways, this little draft proposal has thrown a massive topic out on the table for people to think about and consider.
They may have a Green Party President, but the Chancellor and the control of their Parliament operate under a coalition deal....the right-of-center OVP Party, and the far-right FPO Party.
This past week, the FPO folks in one province of Austria stood up and suggested a new idea....to have a 'Ten Commandments of Immigration'.
It starts off with 'you should learn the German language'. Most people (even Germans) will agree that it's a necessity....if you intend to stay.
But the last of the commandments centers on a curious suggestion....'you should live in gratitude to Austria' (for allowing you the chance to enter and stay).
For the pro-asylum and pro-migration crowd, this was a 'punch below the belt', and it's gotten them mostly hyped up.
The odds that this draft will pass beyond the province or become some national document? Zero chance. But it's driving an interesting and stimulating conversation. If you were some migrant on the road to a better life, who do you owe your prosperity or good luck upon? If you had a safer community, improved chances for economic happiness, and fundamental basic rights that were protected....shouldn't you be a little grateful?
Can we even suggest in this PC-conscious atmosphere that gratefulness can even exist now?
In some ways, this little draft proposal has thrown a massive topic out on the table for people to think about and consider.
Monday, May 13, 2019
Sympathischer
So when it's used in some phrase, it's supposed to signal that the person is acting in a kind-hearted way (whether you believe that or not).
I was a bit skeptical of the intent and the way that this comes across.
This past week, I was off in Switzerland, and this term 'sympathischer' came up.....it's a slogan for the Swiss Bahn folks (the railway crowd). They want you to know.....they are kind-hearted, even if 99-percent of riders disagree with them. On one hand, I admit, it's a good slogan. But I would imagine that most laugh over the use and see it as a joke.
Bohemianism
Bohemianism is a term that started to be used a fair bit around Europe in the late 1800s, and was a bit in Germany during the 1920s.
To define it? Well....it tends to mean that you are free-spirited or individualistic, and that you've gone out to find like-minded people.....to build ongoing relationships.
Vagabonds and wanderers often fall into the same group.
So Bohemians came to have unique political ideals, and were absolutely going against the trend that was accepted by the bulk of society.
Oddly enough, they pursued a lifestyle that mean personalized poverty (living under bridges or in the woods). They hated wealthy or established people. Fake Bohemians? Well....those were the upper-class folks who pretended to be anti-establishment, or showed demonstrations of anti-wealth.
Bohemianism existing today? Yes, this is one of those minor things that you tend to notice in Germany.....often associated with environmental groups or anti-rich political agendas. I certainly won't suggest this being into the tens of thousands, but there are enough now that you probably bump into one or two each week in Germany.
To define it? Well....it tends to mean that you are free-spirited or individualistic, and that you've gone out to find like-minded people.....to build ongoing relationships.
Vagabonds and wanderers often fall into the same group.
So Bohemians came to have unique political ideals, and were absolutely going against the trend that was accepted by the bulk of society.
Oddly enough, they pursued a lifestyle that mean personalized poverty (living under bridges or in the woods). They hated wealthy or established people. Fake Bohemians? Well....those were the upper-class folks who pretended to be anti-establishment, or showed demonstrations of anti-wealth.
Bohemianism existing today? Yes, this is one of those minor things that you tend to notice in Germany.....often associated with environmental groups or anti-rich political agendas. I certainly won't suggest this being into the tens of thousands, but there are enough now that you probably bump into one or two each week in Germany.
A Statistical Story
This was on page one news this morning in Hessen (my local German state)......roughly half of the attempted deportations of failed immigrants in the visa process, from January to April.....could not be sent home.
This adds up to 1,259 attempts by the state Interior Ministry, and 55-percent simply didn't occur.
Various reasons fall into play (health conditions, could not be found, disappearances, etc).
The problem here is that the public looks at stories like this, and they want someone or some group to be sharing in the blame....someone to be fired or pushed out of their political position. And you just simply can't find such a person.
Logically, there's a process here, and man-hours devoted by the police to carry out these deportations. You can figure for 1,259 attempts....at least a dozen man-hours are spent in the preparation process, and ensuring paperwork is ready to go. Then you go to the building or apartment.....to find the individual is 'gone'. Then you have to devote man-hours to find the individual. All of this....simply wastes more and more time, and frustrates the cops because of the waste involved.
Improving this? There's almost nothing that really can fix this unless you picked up the guy on day one of the failed visa and installed them in a holding-like compound until their appeal is wrapped up.
This adds up to 1,259 attempts by the state Interior Ministry, and 55-percent simply didn't occur.
Various reasons fall into play (health conditions, could not be found, disappearances, etc).
The problem here is that the public looks at stories like this, and they want someone or some group to be sharing in the blame....someone to be fired or pushed out of their political position. And you just simply can't find such a person.
Logically, there's a process here, and man-hours devoted by the police to carry out these deportations. You can figure for 1,259 attempts....at least a dozen man-hours are spent in the preparation process, and ensuring paperwork is ready to go. Then you go to the building or apartment.....to find the individual is 'gone'. Then you have to devote man-hours to find the individual. All of this....simply wastes more and more time, and frustrates the cops because of the waste involved.
Improving this? There's almost nothing that really can fix this unless you picked up the guy on day one of the failed visa and installed them in a holding-like compound until their appeal is wrapped up.
Murder Story
About an hour's drive NE of Munich lays Passau....a significant town on the border between Germany and Austria. Last week, the cleaning lady for a rental apartment came to find the three occupants dead (one guy in his 50s, and two women in their early 30s).
So there's this odd feature of the murder.....all three three dead by arrows in each body, and two crossbows found in the room. Suspects? Well, so far, the cops have said that there is no indication of a break-in.
Did the three know each other? No one can say much yet. Two come from the Pfalz, and one from Lower Saxony. A threesome situation? Maybe. Maybe one jealous partner walked into the middle of some rendezvous? Unknown.
It's one of those odd murders that occur once or twice a year in Germany.
So there's this odd feature of the murder.....all three three dead by arrows in each body, and two crossbows found in the room. Suspects? Well, so far, the cops have said that there is no indication of a break-in.
Did the three know each other? No one can say much yet. Two come from the Pfalz, and one from Lower Saxony. A threesome situation? Maybe. Maybe one jealous partner walked into the middle of some rendezvous? Unknown.
It's one of those odd murders that occur once or twice a year in Germany.
Sunday, May 12, 2019
A Tramless World
I sometimes essay over my local German town (Wiesbaden) and it's issues. If you've been around the city for the past two years, there's been continual chatter about the 'CityBahn'.
The mayor and city council came to some point where they realized state money (from Hessen) could be up for a city tram project. Wiesbaden, with 285,000 residents (still growing), is one of the largest cities in Germany without any subway, trolly-car operation, or city tram. For the record, Mainz....with 205,000....has had a tram system for decades.
This past week, the city council ran a public forum and attempted to explain to the public that it's absolutely necessary to 'move on' and develop the tram. The public is mostly divided (maybe upwards to 50-percent against the tram).
The negative? Well....it comes to four different issues (my humble opinion):
1. Most everyone believes a 4th bridge needs to be built. Most everyone in this group also will tell you where the bridge needs to be built (about 100 meters away from where Wiesbadener Strasse and Biebicher Strasse meet up....on the far south-east end of town). The trouble here is that it'd have to cross an island, and German law forbids that unless you really go to far extremes. The invitation here and woes...mean you'd have to fight the environmentalists for at least five to ten years, and no one cares to do that.
2. The route often discussed for the CityBahn means it'd start along the river at Mainz-Kastel (on the Wiesbaden side of the river), and go along to Appelalle Strasse, then turn onto Biebricher Allee going toward the train-station, and then finally go by the city park to arrive in the mid-town area.
Just about everyone with houses along this route are negative, and don't want the noise or traffic associated with the idea.
3. The negative folks are asking for a plan 'B'. The city council? Well, since day one, there's been no plan 'B'. If you run the tram via any other route.....the bulk of consumers/users would be cut in half. In simple terms, you'd be building a mega project for half the customers possible.
4. Wiesbaden has progressed for almost all of the past hundred years with no real public transportation plan. In the past decade, with traffic now at a massive point, a small group of folks ten to argue that the interior of the city needs to be car-free. Yes, they actually want one to two kilometer circle (in the mid-town area) made up where there's nothing but bikes, walking, and e-scooters. At one point, they even suggested forbidding delivery vehicles, and having some kind of city-run e-trucks that would take pallets the last kilometer into the shopping district. Most stores and business operations just laugh when this discussion comes up.
To resolve this whole mess? I'd go and take the money from the state government and build a two-route mini-project. Route 'A' from the edge of Bierstadt, down past the American Army post, to the front of the train station, and end it by turning onto Bahnhofstrasse....stopping by Old Church. I'd then run 'B' from the Army post at Erbenheim, through the city of Erbenheim, along 455, then hit the same 'A' route turning and going to the Bahnhof (tracing the same 'A' tracks). Yes, I'd build for the least affect but get non-urbanized Wiesbaden folks to benefit out of this deal entirely. If the urban-dwellers of Wiesbaden don't want it.....then build it to suit an entirely different crowd. Part of this route would benefit the Ostfeld suburb project (yet to be built, and probably five to seven years away in the future). This would ramp up the value of the Ostfeld project, and make the Army area valuable (if it ever goes away).
The odds that anything will be built? In an amusing way, there's so much negativity that I think the whole future of public transportation in Wiesbaden will just linger along in 'talk-format' for decades. No one wants a policy because it means something has to be built, and a tramless world is the agreeable solution.
The mayor and city council came to some point where they realized state money (from Hessen) could be up for a city tram project. Wiesbaden, with 285,000 residents (still growing), is one of the largest cities in Germany without any subway, trolly-car operation, or city tram. For the record, Mainz....with 205,000....has had a tram system for decades.
This past week, the city council ran a public forum and attempted to explain to the public that it's absolutely necessary to 'move on' and develop the tram. The public is mostly divided (maybe upwards to 50-percent against the tram).
The negative? Well....it comes to four different issues (my humble opinion):
1. Most everyone believes a 4th bridge needs to be built. Most everyone in this group also will tell you where the bridge needs to be built (about 100 meters away from where Wiesbadener Strasse and Biebicher Strasse meet up....on the far south-east end of town). The trouble here is that it'd have to cross an island, and German law forbids that unless you really go to far extremes. The invitation here and woes...mean you'd have to fight the environmentalists for at least five to ten years, and no one cares to do that.
2. The route often discussed for the CityBahn means it'd start along the river at Mainz-Kastel (on the Wiesbaden side of the river), and go along to Appelalle Strasse, then turn onto Biebricher Allee going toward the train-station, and then finally go by the city park to arrive in the mid-town area.
Just about everyone with houses along this route are negative, and don't want the noise or traffic associated with the idea.
3. The negative folks are asking for a plan 'B'. The city council? Well, since day one, there's been no plan 'B'. If you run the tram via any other route.....the bulk of consumers/users would be cut in half. In simple terms, you'd be building a mega project for half the customers possible.
4. Wiesbaden has progressed for almost all of the past hundred years with no real public transportation plan. In the past decade, with traffic now at a massive point, a small group of folks ten to argue that the interior of the city needs to be car-free. Yes, they actually want one to two kilometer circle (in the mid-town area) made up where there's nothing but bikes, walking, and e-scooters. At one point, they even suggested forbidding delivery vehicles, and having some kind of city-run e-trucks that would take pallets the last kilometer into the shopping district. Most stores and business operations just laugh when this discussion comes up.
To resolve this whole mess? I'd go and take the money from the state government and build a two-route mini-project. Route 'A' from the edge of Bierstadt, down past the American Army post, to the front of the train station, and end it by turning onto Bahnhofstrasse....stopping by Old Church. I'd then run 'B' from the Army post at Erbenheim, through the city of Erbenheim, along 455, then hit the same 'A' route turning and going to the Bahnhof (tracing the same 'A' tracks). Yes, I'd build for the least affect but get non-urbanized Wiesbaden folks to benefit out of this deal entirely. If the urban-dwellers of Wiesbaden don't want it.....then build it to suit an entirely different crowd. Part of this route would benefit the Ostfeld suburb project (yet to be built, and probably five to seven years away in the future). This would ramp up the value of the Ostfeld project, and make the Army area valuable (if it ever goes away).
The odds that anything will be built? In an amusing way, there's so much negativity that I think the whole future of public transportation in Wiesbaden will just linger along in 'talk-format' for decades. No one wants a policy because it means something has to be built, and a tramless world is the agreeable solution.
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