Last year, most folks would have given it 5-to-10 percent chance....mostly because roughly a third of all SPD Party members are disenchanted with the coalition relationship with Merkel's party (the CDU-CSU combo). If you remember, this was the second scenario at work, because the Greens and FDP folks couldn't work out a relationship with Merkel.
After this weekends EU election, there's a bit of chatter going on that suggests that two scenarios are in play: (1) Merkel may retire, with AKK stepping up and the SPD might choose to disconnect their relationship and trigger an election, or (2) an element in both the CDU and SPD may see this relationship at a end-point, even if Merkel stays around.
Past early elections?
Summer of 2005, a motion of no-confidence occurred in the 3rd year of Schroeder's 2nd term. In this case, Merkel won her first election MARGINALLY (roughly 500,000 votes separated them).
The 1972 national election was held a year early, mostly because of conflict with the Chancellor (Brandt) and his east-west relationship. The attempt to kick Brandt out? Failed by roughly half-a-million votes.
Between 1919 and 1936....with two single exceptions....the other seven elections were all out of cycle and due to political intrigue.
In the current landscape? You can count on seven central features:
1. The Green Party (with their candidate Habeck) is probably in the best position of the past forty years, and can easily take twenty-plus percent in a national election.
2. The SPD Party is in it's weakest position of the past one-hundred years, and it would be remarkable if they got sixteen-plus percent of the national vote.
3. The top issues? Climate change, pension reform (to help the welfare pensioners), welfare reform, the carbon tax, affordable housing shortages in urbanized regions, and immigration-asylum-integration.
4 Merkel won't be in the running, and some CDU members aren't that enthusiastic about AKK.
5. AfD (the anti-immigration party and proclaimed loudly as populist-run....could easily take 12-to-16 percent of the votes....deeply dividing things and making it difficult to arrange a coalition.
6. Social media is now figured to matter, and some journalists/politicians are worried because they control the 'theme' of this creature.
7. Finally, you come to the youth vote. Typically, the SPD would talk all positive about how they could influence this group. Well....it's apparent now via the EU election....that the Greens now OWN the youth vote, via climate change.
If a national vote is called early.....I would give the win to the Green Party and figure that four years of Habeck will occur, with massive economic problems triggering a far-right slant as the consequence.
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