Linke Evolution?

 After East and West Germany unified.....the Linke Party was forged....to be the new far left core party of what remained out of both 'states.

In the 1990s....when elections occurred....the Linke Party could mount great numbers in the eastern part of Germany, and crappy numbers in western Germany.

In the 2005 national election....they were able to get near 8-percent of the national vote.

In the 2009 national election....they got near 12-percent of the vote.

Last year, they dropped to 4.9-percent, and most think between the evolution of the SPD and Greens....the Linke Party may be finished when the 2025 election comes up.

What's really happened?  I would suggest four things:

1.  There's most only interest in the Linke Party in the five eastern 'states' of Germany.....marginal to zero in the other eleven.

2.  They haven't found anyone that really captivates a crowd.

3.  The core voter that might have been attracted to them twenty years ago....has changed, and that voter might have pro-capitalism, pro-commerce, and center-ideas in their mind.....which the old Linke Party of today....can't get their grip around.

4.  The Green Party has evolved enough....to seize what would have been guaranteed Linke voters back twenty years ago.

What happens in 2025, if they catch only 3 to 4 percent of the vote?  Nationally, I think they disappear entirely, and they become a big deal only in two to three eastern states.  It's not the end of the world, but it says a lot about the evolution of politics in Germany.  

The Weiterstadt Prison Bombing

 This is one of those historical essays I occasionally write.

Over in the town of Weiterstadt (about ten minutes driving NW of Darmstadt, or an hour driving south of Frankfurt)....the West German authorities had decided to build a ultra-modern prison.  The basic idea came up in the mid-80s, and this construction period had taken around eight years.

The 'big' purpose of the prison?  Well....to house RAF (Red Army Faction) prisoners in the future.  

This prison was openly discussed by the RAF members and they would develop a master plan to destroy the facility.

Around March 1993....the RAF conducted one of it's last 'big' attacks....attempting to level the soon-to-be completed prison at Weiterstadt.  

The players?  Three RAF members....two men and one woman.

At some point in the night, they enter a facility control point and tie up around ten guards.....putting them in a van nearby.  None were harmed in this effort.

Around 200 kg of explosives are set, and right about as the sun rose....the explosives went off.  

At that point, around a quarter-billion D-Marks had been spent on construction, and eight years had been spent to build the facility.  

What the bomb had done?  Basically destroyed the entry-building or the administrative headquarters.  The rest of the structure stood....mostly undamaged.  The 200 kg?  Maybe if they'd had four to six times that amount of explosive....the whole thing would have come down.  Part of me wants to say that that was about all that they had in their possession at the time, and they simply wanted to send a 'message'.

German authorities unsettled?  No.....they simply came right back and rebuilt what was destroyed (somewhere between four and five years later....it became operational finally). 

So, here is the odd part of the story.  The three RAF folks?  They left DNA at the site.  Around 2007....the Germans identified the three (Burkhard Garweg, Ernst-Volker Wilhelm Staub and Daniela Klette). 

Where the three are today?  They've never been seen or caught. All would be in their mid-50s to late 60s.

The curious thing?  For about twenty years, all three have been figured into several grocery-store and money-transport robberies (taking a fair amount of cash).....in the northern part of Germany.

At some point around 2017....someone made a report that a guy looking like Staub was at a Venice (Italy) RV camp ground, and some folks started to think that the three have some RV or camping lifestyle around the Med.  

Germans actively looking for them?  Well...there's a poster for them, and some reward....but up until the robbery business started....no one was making that much of an effort.  

Cash flow?  If you add up the perceived robbery situations....there's probably around 1-to-1.5 million Euro taken at this point.  It's enough that if you were somewhat careful about your habits as a trio....you could 'retire-out' as a terrorist on the RV scene.  The odd factor to this end-part of the story?  If they were RV 'players'.....you'd have to have some 'friend' who helps on the tag/vehicle registration.  

How Bad Off Financially Is RBB (The Berlin Public TV Network)?

 Well.....70-million Euro short.

The director of the public TV network reported this over the weekend.

A big deal?  What they are saying is that presently....they can carry on and there's always new fresh money coming from the TV-Media tax.  Course, loans have interest attached and the 70-million probably grows every quarter.

What's likely to happen?  I'd suggest some tight budget times for the next couple of years, and a fair amount of low-budget productions.  The ARD guys giving some extra cash over?  I doubt it....it'd just beg questions and some official enquiry.  Somehow, RBB will get through this and in three to four years....emerge with a zero-debt situation.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  WELT did a poll with the German public....asking if Scholz is overwhelmed in the job of Chancellor.  55-percent of Germans said yes.  Not that it really changes much of anything....but it's public perception.

2. N-TV had a short segment report this AM....talking about rifles delivered to the Ukraine in the past couple of months for the war....which now seem to be showing in some small numbers with the criminal element in Finland.  

3.  Several business sources are talking to the subject that two out of three restaurants/cafes/pubs in Germany are preparing insolvency paperwork for bankruptcy.  Between Covid, the recession, declining customer base, and heating cost....there's some rough times coming shortly.

4.  The FDP Party is pushing for a new view of fracking (forbidden in Germany for almost six year now).  Probably won't go anywhere presently (neither the SPD or Greens support changing things).  

Telephone Boxes Retired?

 If you were ever stationed around Germany.....you would have noticed the various yellow telephone 'boxes' in public situations.  At the peak, there were 160,000 of them.

Come January 2023....the last of them will be turned 'off'.  The current plan....which probably will take about a dozen years....is to pick them up from individual locations.  No one says much over what happens to the boxes after that.

Cellular phones helped twenty years ago to end normal use in public situations.  In my village....the last of them disappeared around five years ago.  

Ten Things I Tend To Believe

 1.  Russia is unprepared for a winter war, and war-dead/wounded will double up compared to the past five months.

I'll just suggest that from the 300,000 Reservists activated....roughly 50,000 (between now and Christmas) just plain disappear from sight, and relatives can get no respectful answer about their status (dead or alive).

2.  I would personally estimate that one out of every four German households will attempt to use alternate 'heating' methods this winter.....which will result in a substantial number of home/apartment fires around Germany.  

At some point, I expect some city mayors to order regulations of some type....to prevent candle or fireplace fires.  

3.  After literally conducting hundreds of thousands of man-hours....in the NSU investigation.....which carried into the 2013 to 2018 period....I believe Germany will start a whole new investigation to determine how a ZDF public TV comedian got the file system which was supposed to be kept secret for fifty-plus years, and published it to the public.

Once completed (probably by the summer of 2024).....that investigation over the comedian 'stealing' the file investigation will be ordered to be kept secret for twenty-plus years, and I will predict that this new super-secret file, will also be dug out and published in public within one year....by another comedian. 

4.  I will predict by the end of 2023.....German-Sumo wrestling will come to German commercial TV....in a desperation effort to fill crappy reality TV programs.

5.  I believe by the end of 2023.....German authorities will have discovered more than 1,000 German teenagers (under the age of 16) own and hold crypto-currency, and it will be determined that it's a national trend to be stamped out.  

6.  I believe that Twitter will be locked out of Germany either by Twitter/Musk, or by the German authorities....because of lack of control over free thought.  This will trigger a vast discussion over chatter and if citizens should have some right (or condition) to express stupid thoughts.  Countless hours on public TV forums will be wasted on this topic.

7.  I believe that more than 10,000 Germans will be noted as holding a cellphone which is 'bugged' by the Russian KGB, and this will be published in open news.  At some point, several Germans of noted status will say they were 'bugged' (when they weren't)....just to put themselves in the important Putin-status.  

8.  I believe the 2022 World Cup viewing in Germany will be a record low number.

9.  I believe  that neither the Russian gov't or GAZPROM 'bombed' Nord Stream I/II pipelines.  Beyond that....I won't suggest who was guilty party.

10.  I believe the newest apartment renovation to be developed....will be fake ceilings for these 70-year-old apartments that have the 3.6-meter ceilings.  These will be developed because of the heating crisis....to lessen the amount of cubic space to be heated.  

Three German News Stories

 1.  There's some suggestion in the German press....that UK's short-lived PM (Truss) had a tapped phone (covered by Russia).  Truth to the matter (BS-meter)?  I'd rank it near '1' (marginally false).  The key element to the story....Johnson apparently knew at some point, and didn't nationally speak to the issue.  

My question?  Just how long was the phone 'bugged'?  And is it possible that dozens of political figures in the UK have Russia bugged phones today?  For that matter....could various German political figures or journalists be Russia-bugged?  

2.  Russia's blame on the Nord Stream explosions?  It's now laid out to be the UK.  Truth to the story?  You can't find any factual evidence to really support the story.

3.  Covid mask mandate coming back to Germany?

Well....the Health Minister is pushing on an agenda where it probably will be mandated in stores or interiors again.  If you were asking me on the schedule?  I'd take a guess that by 10th of November....it'll probably be falling into place.  

How many Germans wear Covid masks presently?  Based on grocery visits of the past two weeks....I'd say around 30-percent (some young, some old).  I do carry a mask around....if I have to ride the bus or train (there, it's mandated).  Beyond that...I do agree...the numbers of infection are on the rise, and it's going to push the mask routine back into the 'norm'.

Chinese Secret Police Story

 Rather odd story popped up in the past two days....Chinese police reported active in Germany.

So what's the whole thing about?  

A non-gov't 'tip' occurred....suggesting that four European cities have a Chinese police presence (Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Dublin and Rotterdam).  My regional public TV folks report most of the story here.

The Germans point out that there is no agreement for such a police unit to exist in Germany, and if there is one....it's a problem.

What's said here....this 'center' in Frankfurt (if it does exist)....supports Chinese students/guests.....getting driver's licenses, passport support, etc.  

On the negative side, it's suggested that they spy on Chinese citizens here.

I sat and reviewed the numbers in Hessen....of Chinese.  It's around 15,000....of which 13k of them are students in some way at Darmstadt's university. 

My humble view?  Fifty percent of this story might be true and the office working as a support function.  The rest of this might not be a pleasant story to lay out and you just wonder how they operated, and if this had been up for several years or a decade....without being noticed.  

Yeah, About That Car Accident

 About a week ago, I chatted over this big major accident in mid-town Wiesbaden....maybe 500 to 800 ft from the train station....six lane street area...main drag of town.  Main result....Mercedes ran some red-light, collided with a VW.  VW occupant killed, and the Mercedes flipped over.  

At the time, because of the flip-over....lot of folks figured excessive speed (this part of town is 50 kph max....31 mph.

So the initial investigation concluded.  

Mercedes driver (24 years old) was racing at excessive speed against a 3rd car (Audi) when he ran the red-light.

It's a common theme in the Frankfurt region now....racing on 50 kph streets and even on the autobahn network around the Frankfurt area.  

Mercedes occupants?  Driver, and three passengers seriously injured.  Audi situation?  He wasn't involved in the crash.

Police?  Charges coming up....reckless driving and murder against the 24-year old guy.  For the Audi driver....probably reckless driving.  Both permanently losing their license to drive?  What the authorities tend to do.....take the license for a year, and then apply the 'dummy-test' (officially called the MPU, or by Germans....the Idiotientest).  Yes, the 'idiot's test'.  

My son brought up the topic of the Idiotientest last year....one of his associates had to take it.  On average.....about 100,000 tests a year are given....with only half the folks passing on the first chance.  

The test is built in some way to identify slow-thinkers.  

On charges....I'm guessing the 24-year-old will get a minimum of eight years in prison, and there might be enough there on the 3rd driver (the racer) to get at least six to twelve months of jail).

But the other side affecting the rest of us.....there's probably going to be some massive push for blitz cameras around town....on the main 'drags'.  There's probably thirty cameras around town now, and it wouldn't shock me if they added another dozen by mid-summer of 2023.....to the four-lane streets leading out of town.  

Knife Story

 Around 9 PM last night (Friday)....over in Mainz-Kastel (the east end of Wiesbaden)...cops got called.

Location?  Refugee shelter.

What they came upon was a stabbing incident in the shelter....two women (early 30s, early 40s) wounded, and some guy with a knife.

The knife guy?  Well....he had retreated to some apartment and wasn't going to come out in a friendly way.

The local cops?  They went to book, and called up the SEK guys (over in Frankfurt).  The SEK folks are what I'd call 'bad-ass' highly trained German federal cops and they train daily for situations like this.

SEK arrived....eyeballed the situation, and around 2 AM.....got into the apartment.

The knife guy?  Bad off, already from previous wounds, and he would die at the hospital later.

Drugs or alcohol in the mix?  No one says much.  An investigation will follow.  My humble bet is that he was on something, and just reacted to something said by one of the women.  

Are German Train/Bus Schedules Affected Still By Covid?

 Simple answer....YES.

NDR covered this topic in the AM today.

No matter where you go....it's a haphazard schedule that develops, and you might find yourself standing there for what ought to be a two-bus an hour schedule.....finding that for twelve hours today, there's only going to be one bus an hour running.

In the case of trains, it's a pretty harsh situation....where there's supposed to be twenty-four trains to run some route of forty km's for a work-day, and there's a warning sign up....with a max of dozen trains to run this route.  Over-crowding to occur?  Absolutely, and various schedules are then screwed up.  

The system....nationwide....simply wasn't built to handle illness/Covid.  

How Much Debt Does Berlin (The City) Carry?

 RBB covered this in the AM, and it's a significant amount of cash....66-billion Euro.  And here's the chief problem....it's expanding. 

Every second that passes.....another 35 Euro is added to the pile of debt.

Somewhere around 1995, it (the city) passed the 20-billion Euro point.

About twenty years ago, they came to realize that a fifth of every Euro collected via taxation....goes to the interest requirements.  

What'll eventually happen?  I suspect the city will reach a point by 2030 where the amount is near 100-billion Euro, and they go to ask the Bundestag to 'gift' them 50-billion Euro to climb out of the hole.  I don't think the Bundestag will cooperate, and there's going to be some 'Jesus' moment where the city has to collapse its budget for ten years, and suffer to a great extent.  

Is There Any Real Russian Cash-Flow Going On?

 Well....Russia made 55-billion dollars from natural gas sales in 2021....the vast amount....from sales to Europe.  With Nord Stream I 'gone'....likely not to be connected back....the question pops up...is there cash flow?

If you look at oil and remaining natural gas sales (to China and the marginal movement of gas to Europe up to the collapse of NS II)....Russia does appear to have made around 155-billion dollars so far in 2022.  

If you were to classify this....they certainly aren't broke, and there's money moving around the government and private sector.  The chief problem.....a lot of the expertise and equipment to accomplish the oil/natural gas movement (ships included).....were non-Russian.  

The longer this sanction business goes on.....the more likely it is that pieces and parts will break down, and the customers will be 'stuck' with marginal to zero movement of oil/natural gas.  At that point.....cash-flow will halt, and I suspect it'll be a pretty gloomy moment for the ultra rich of Moscow. 

Eleven German News Stories

 1. The German gov't wrapped up a fairly 'big' investigation about four years ago....against the far-right extremist group 'NSU'.  So the 'adventure' ended with court action....between summer 2013 to summer 2018.  Charges?  Related to murder of some Turks in Germany.  Key issue?  This was the longest, and most expensive court case in German history.  

Two of the three key people in this court action....were dead. 

So at the end of this.....there's a lot of investigative information sitting there, and the government decided to classify it....for 120 years.  Yeah, it's a bit extreme, and begs a lot of questions how this came to be almost two entire generations of secrecy.  

ZDF (public TV, Channel Two) has this comedian hired up as a night-time host (Bohmermann) and somehow....his staff got a copy of the entire investigation and posted it online this week.  

Effect?  I think the government is shocked how this occurred, and some investigation will occur.  Bohmermann in trouble?  Hard to say.  

The information?  So far, there's nothing much shocking there and most people are asking....why the 120 year secrecy? 

2.  Last night....a live show on Pro7 commercial....called 'The Voice' (singing show).  There's a live 'vote' being conducted and at some point....a massive screw-up occurred....some candidate was announced the 'winner' and within sixty seconds....the network folks realized they had tabulated the votes in some poor fashion.  Must have taken a good ten minutes to correct everything, and get on with the rest of the show.  

3.  Two phases of evacuation from Kherson, Ukraine....as the Russians leave.  There's the friendly-you-gotta-leave phase, and then there's the forced-deportation phase.  Locals seem shocked.  

You get the impression that the Russian military intends to level the entire city.

4.  Focus article....more German Covid deaths so far in 2022....than in 2021.  

5.  Nuke attack chatter on Germany?

Well....yeah....Focus reported this in the AM today and it comes from 'radio' communications from the Russians....that PM Scholz was told about.

The threat?  This was back in April.  The threat discussed....the Russians would nuke three targets (the weapon storage facility in Buchel....60 miles west of Wiesbaden, Ramstein Air Base, and Berlin).

Where this chatter started from?  A Russian naval message.

It's pointed out....the Russians knew they were bugged, and they intentionally spoke to the idea of nukes and the three targets.....to 'thrill' NATO.

The problem of this discussion and 'worry'.....the nuke talk comes from the end of 2021, BEFORE the war started, and was in the midst of some exercise.  

Reality here?  I think Scholz got the basis of the message and has been awful careful about what Germany does....believing the threat made and it's real (when it's not).  I also think the threat was just chatter between two naval officers about their fantasy-dream sequence of targets to hit.

6.  There's a fair amount of hype in Germany over escalating prices for heating oil and wood-pellets (their prices have gone up drastically in the past three months).  The Economics Minister (Habeck, Greens) is trying to avoid this 'help' and suggesting more money for thermal energy instead.

7.  German inflation rate is now past 10-percent for 2022.

8.  Anne Schneider wrote up a piece for WELT today....if you can find a copy, it's worth a read.  She takes on the 'Last Generation' radical kids....saying "The Last Generation is closer to the stone-age, than to the future."

I think most German adults are losing patience with the group, and it's a question of when the court system finally says 'enough' and starts hauling the kids off to some detention center or jail-situation.  

9.  NTV had a piece talking over the 11th Army Corps of Russia....who was formed in the Kalingrad area around 8 years ago, and was deployed into the Ukraine.  On paper, they were supposed to be near 20,000 in number.....some suggest the reality was that they amounted to 10,000 when dispatched.  According to the journalists....other than the headquarters element....the corps itself (probably in 10,000 range) has been wiped out.

It would be a shocker if this one actual unit (not reservists or conscripts) came to be non-existent.

10.  NTV reports there's some kind of Chinese police unit in Germany....tracking and reporting on Chinese citizens who've left China (permanently).  

11.  German Finance Minister has now said that German states will not get any additional funds for refugees.  So if more show up.....the states themselves will have to divert their money from other projects (like road repair, sports, education, etc)....to pay for the residence, cost of living, etc.  

Yeah, there's going to be heartburn here, and you can sense that some 'limit' is going to be established eventually on accepting refugees in Germany.  

Postal Chaos?

 In the past month or two here in Germany, I've heard the term 'post chaos' used.....which refers back to a general low confidence feeling by Germany about the delivery time for mail to get from point 'A' to point 'B'.

Focus brought up this topic today.

About a week ago, I kinda expected a delivery to occur on Friday....nothing came (period).  Saturday mail?  Nothing.  Monday mail?  Nothing.  This letter letter, sent from the local region on a Wednesday morning....finally arrived on Tuesday.  Basically moving about 20 km in six days.  Even by pony express, it would have arrived in twenty-four hours.

What's the deal?

It comes down to two issues.  First, the Covid crisis continues on, with regular post folks out, and the reserve folks missing.  Second, add to this issue....Deutsche Post has had trouble hiring for the work required....so they aren't 100-percent on filled positions.  If you look around....most everyone is in the same situation on empty billets. 

In general, when someone mails you a bill.....the rule is that you have two weeks from the day mailed, and assuming that the letter should take no longer than two days to arrive (at least within a state itself).

For decades, Germany was a 'legend' on postal delivery.  You could mail a letter on Monday morning out of Hamburg, and typically by Wednesday morning.....it'd be in your central Germany mailbox.  

Fixing this with money?  Well....unless you hustle up capable employees and get back to 100-percent manning....you'd still have to deal with Covid issues.  

A New Travel Right?

 I've traveled by air a lot in my life.  Since age 18, I would suggest that I've had a minimum of 250 flights.  There are two elements of a flight that typically can frustrate me....hitting connecting flights on time (I've missed the connecting flight around a dozen times), and the end-point where the bag is supposed to come up off the conveyer-belt within an hour after the plane door opens.  

Around three years ago, I was on a return flight to Germany (from Croatia) and walked to the baggage area.....to stand there for about two hours waiting.  It was a late Sunday afternoon, and around fifty of us waited 'forever'.  

Over the past summer, a lot of frustration has built up with German travelers as this long-wait was a normal thing....with a shortage of baggage handlers at most all German airports.

So I noticed this morning....there's chatter going on about a 'right' to a speedy bag situation.  The German government wants to write a 'right', and have some 'reward' if the airline fails in its obligation.

Your 'reward'?  No one says much.....just that the political folks want to threaten the airline, and cook-up some type of 'right' and a payback situation.

My humble guess?  Between weather and various factors....you can't really expect that bag to be there within an hour after the door opens on the aircraft.  Maybe 90-percent of the time....it's possible. But to say that out of 365 days a year of air travel....the bag can come off the conveyor belt within an hour....is crazy talk.

If there is some 'reward'?  Well....if I were an airline, and this 'reward' is twenty-five Euro....I'd add the extra cost to the ticket and make you pay it ahead of time, and guarantee you it'll take one-hour plus time.

This past summer, I watched one interview where the German lady was furious....it'd take almost three hours after landing to finally get her bag, and leave the airport terminal area.  I do agree....that's a hefty amount of waiting time and I'd need a bar in the baggage area....to sip through two or three beers....waiting.

So I come to what I consider the solution.  Give up on the airlines to get your bag to the destination at a Greek resort.  Take the bag to DHL or some freight delivery service....pay the 90-Euro to have the bag taken from your hands....to the hotel in Greece itself, and then pay the 90-Euro at the end to return to the bag to your home residence.  

Yes, give up on airlines to transport bags.

I had a conversation about five years ago where some Brit admitted that he'd gone this route for his vacation....giving up on airlines and their ability to lose bags or get them to the destination late.  It's a fair amount of money involved, but you tend to lessen your stress and avoid crappy service by the airline industry.  The Japanese do this a great deal....avoiding the handling of bags by railway service or airlines.  

So prepare yourself for a new passenger right to come up by the end of 2023's summer season, and how it'll jack up travel cost.  

Combat Food Story

 I sat and watched a German military documentary piece (recently made) and they got onto the subject of the 'combat ration' pack that you get issued as a German army member.

At the end of the segment, the reporter asked what it cost for a one-day pack (roughly 4,000 calories and enough food for a 24-hour period).  The cost?  27 Euro....a fairly hefty sum of money.  But on the US side of things....for the MRE bag, it's typically ranging from $18 to $25 each.

The size of the box?  Well....that surprised me....it's about 1.5 times the size of a regular shoe box that you might buy.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Odd soccer game last night in Koln.  Was supposed to be a European Conference game.  Game started up with a fair amount of fog, and about seven minutes later....the ref's determined that there simply wasn't enough 'sight' to conduct the game.  Game was delayed around 75 minutes, and then the ref said 'enough'....halted, and game will be played tonight (Friday).  From my prospective....watching video of the delay point....a player around 150 feet away could not be identified by the number on his jersey.....that's how bad the fog was.

2.  Putin has made some odd statement (Thursday) of ready to meet and conduct a peace-situation.  Anyone's guess as to what will happen.  I suspect Turkey is the place where these talks might be held.  If you asked me why now?  Economic sanctions probably has begun to be felt.

3.  Alfons Schuhbeck, fairly well-known German cook....sentenced to three years in prison for tax issues.  Of the top thousand German promi's and recognizable.....he's in that group.

4.  Weather for yesterday (Thursday) set a number of warm-records in Germany.  It is unseasonably mild (rainfall occurring at least twice a week).  My heat in the house has marginally turned on for the past thirty days. 

5.  Cannabis draft law in public now, and available via RBB: 

A couple of the key points: Cannabis and the THC levels will be no longer classified as narcotic (probably will be taken to court), up to 30 grams will be legal in your possession, private cultivation in your home/garage will be allowed.

They did insert some words that if you have your own plants....they have to be kept away from kids/children.  How this part works....unknown.

No advertising or mail order will be mandated.  

There will be a tax of some type.  The THC content will be figured into the tax....the more THC....the more the tax.  

Licensed shops and pharmacies will be the only places you can buy it legally.  A number of pharmacy organizations have openly said they will refuse to deal in the product.  

Age limit?  18.

They suggest that the final price on the 'product', with tax included and shop costs....will be at the normal black market price.  How they can guarantee this?  Unknown.  Personally, unless you had an exclusive trade situation....with a decent profit situation....I don't see how you'd beat the black-market situation/unlicensed dealers.

In the end, I suspect more than a quarter of all weed/cannabis sales will remain black-market....defeating the gov't program.  

How many shops will end up existing?  Anyone's guess.  In a city the size of Wiesbaden (283k)....I doubt that the city licenses more than ten shops.  

Five Russia Questions That Might Be Interesting To Know

 1.  How many Oligarch 'families/clans' exist in Russia?

Officially, on the books?  No one has a great factual number to throw around.  Prior to 1990....none existed.

Today?  If you count situations where Oligarch kids married out of the group....I suspect there might be over 2,500 separate Oligarch 'families' in existence.  

So you kinda wonder....as each week passed and their lifestyle lessened....how's the stability of the families, and how many of them have exited some door to Cyprus, Dubai, or some third-world country?

2.  How many Russian generals turned into 'Oligarch-like' clans, over this thirty-year period?

3.  Switzerland is hinting that it'll shut down private Russian accounts.....you know....the Oligarch accounts (chatter from past two weeks).  They don't mean a continued freeze....they mean the end of the account, period.  Just what is the situation going toward, and where could you move your money....in a hurry....avoiding bringing the money back to Russia?  Flush it toward Dubai?  Aim toward Kenya or South Africa?  Where could you flush trillion-odd dollars, and feel it would be safe?  If Venezuela said it'd be safe to bring the money there....would you be stupid enough to trust them?

4.  What's the mentality of a thousand-odd Oligarch guys....seeing their ship 'sink' and realize they may never get that rich feeling again....in their life times?

5.  Finally, if you were a Russian calling up your cellphone provider....bitching about service in your area of town, and were told....x-number of towers are out because of a parts issue (parts were Spanish or French-made) and that half the technicians either got drafted back into service (the Reservists) or that they exited the country last month to avoid being drafted.....how would you feel about crappy non-existent service....that you pay a monthly fee for?  

A Conversation About Long Covid

 In recent weeks in Germany, there's been more chatter going on over Long-Covid.  Journalists have picked up the topic and a number of doctors are open about the topic now....some referring to patients who had Covid....then after it was done (gone)....they were in some weakened state (both mentally and physically).  Others talk of individuals who got the booster shot (without contracting Covid) and had some reaction after that booster....relating to the effects of Long-Covid.

Science to this?  No....just simply facts or case studies of individuals themselves.  

Some clinics are putting in time, but admit that without funding....this is basically a hit-and-miss situation.

The one curious thing you notice.....there are individuals who contracted Long Covid.....who were totally 'fit' (factual data supporting that) and there were some people who were simply 'average' (meaning they marginally worked out or jogged)....so your fitness level isn't really a part of the overall story.

They can't tie this down to your blood type.....your past injuries or virus episodes....or even cigarette/booze usage.   Whether you lived in urban or mountainous areas?  No.....that doesn't figure into the rate either.

My gut opinion?

It would be interesting to compare family history here....where you and your sister/brother/son/daughter had the Covid virus, and emerged without any Long Covid situation.  If you could determine from a couple dozen histories.....then you'd count out genetics being a plus-up or plus-down.

Your diet getting you into this predicament?  Well....so far, no one has made that suggestion.    I've found it odd when these German conversations come up over the Long Covid people.....you never have boozers in the mix (heavy-drinkers).  It would be odd that alcohol might have some play in this.

The key thing in this?  So far, the Long Covid people for the most part....aren't really improving.  So each time another Long Covid guy comes up to add to the list.....it's rarely showing a guy getting off the list.  Medically retiring these people at age 30 or 40?  This starts to make you wonder about how governments might handle this, and how you live in some happy lifestyle for the remaining forty years of your life.

One odd thing I noticed this past summer (June) was a study that said women were 22-percent more likely to get Long Covid.....than guys.  Why?  No one can say.

From my two bouts of Covid.....I was generally 'well' by the 20th day, and full-up well....by day 30 (from day one of the virus).  

So I end this conversation with this thought....in five years, if the pace continues.....there will be around 150,000 Germans around with Long Covid, and some government 'problem' will exist where a 20-something or 40-something adult....can no longer participate in the work force, and I'm wondering how things will work then.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus reported that some documents came up at a abandoned Russian command post  in the town of Balakliya (Ukraine).  So, they were manpower documents.  The blunt end of this story....one unit in the group....combat battalion....had roughly 20-percent of the manpower they were supposed to have.  Another unit....reserve unit....was only around 25-percent on manpower.  

Bad indicator of the Russian situation for the war.

2.  Effort to legalize cannabis continues.  Amount you can have on your person (as the law finalizes) is 30 grams.  Still a discussion underway about the THC level for those under the age of 21.  

3.  In after-hours trading last night....META (formerly Facebook) dumped around 20-percent of it's value.  Has shocked a lot of German investors.

4.  German company MBDA did a demo of a drone-shootdown, with a 'laser-cannon'.  Successful test apparently.  

5.  Bundestag passed a law that allows companies to pay employees for the hefty rise in the cost of living....up to 3,000 Euro....to be tax-free.  Whether companies pay this out...is unknown.  All of this coming before the end of 2022?  Yeah....some people may benefit out of this deal.  

Talking Elon Musk, Twitter, and the German Network Enforcement Act of 2018

 Back in 2017, the German Bundestag passed a law called the Network Enforcement Act, and basically....it read, if you are social media and have over 2-million German users....then we (the German gov't) put you (the company) into a special category.

If we (the German gov't) say that 'clearly illegal' content is on the social media platform.....then you the company have to remove it in seven days, or we fine you 50-million Euro.  

So Twitter created a center in Germany to handle this.  Almost daily, various 'alerts' occur, and an evaluation has to occur....to prevent the 50-million Euro fine from falling into place.

What happens after Elon buys Twitter?  No one says much.

Personally, I don't think Elon will respect the law, and right off the bat....he'll either decline German membership in Twitter (cutting into the 7-million German accounts) or just plain making it non-accessible to Germany.  

I don't believe he's going to waste time or resources on the Network Enforcement Act....saying Germany is probably a country that needs a highly controlled social media platform, and they can pay for it themselves.

What'll happen next?  My humble belief is that a fair number of journalists will start to run public forums over this, and suggest that Elon Musk is hindering safe thoughts/chatter.  This will be laughed upon, but it'll be a major topic for at least a month.

Then you will see a fair number of Germans who buy into a VPN....declare themselves to be American accounts, or perhaps non-German nationality....still participating in Twitter chatter.

As for younger Germans asking the key question....just how much censorship or 'control' does Germany need to exert.....to be told that Germans occupy some special status where they can't be trusted after the 'Hitler-era'.  On acceptance of propaganda, there has to be a trusted-agent at the door.....saving society from the evils of too much BS or fake news.  

Musk will respond to this suggestion....saying that if this is the path ahead....just dumping on a sizeable media site is not enough....you need to extend control to regular newspapers, TV shows, comedy theater, and even nightly newscasts.  At that point, most Germans will turn and face the political establishment.....asking them if Musk is right.  

It'll an interesting period over the first six months of Musk running Twitter, and it'll be curious to watch how things in Germany develop.  

The Next Sixty Days of the 'War'

 With a lot of Russian conscripts/reservists gathering up in the Belarus region, I would suggest the November 'script' to lead to three things:

1.  I think a gathering of mostly Russian reservists, with some Belarus tanks/APCs in the landscape...will gather within the Ukrainian northern border to Belarus.  Manpower-wise....in a infantry setting.....it'll be in the 300,000 range.  

All of this will be easily seen by US/NATO....in the ten days of preparing for the new invasion.

The objective?  Take Kiev.  

2.  Somewhere between mid-November to the end of November....this plan will start.

How many tanks does Belarus have to 'share'?  The nation maintains that they have four tank brigades, and something in the range of 1,200 tanks (at least they say this number), but some folks indicate that 800 of these tanks are in reserve (meaning that they might not be fully operational).  So the real number might be closer to 400 tanks to 'share'.

I expect Ukraine will go back to anti-tank missiles, and by the 3rd day of this 'invasion'.....more than half of the Belarus tanks will be in a disabled condition.

The 300,000 reservists mostly walking into Ukraine?  It's about 160 km (100 miles).  If they walked in a straight path and along roads.....they could hike to the outer edge of Kiev in three days, but I really don't expect them to have their speed.  Add to it.....it's fall weather, and the roads would be the last place  to open walk.

So I don't see the reservists arriving to the outer 'ring' of Kiev until the 15th day.  

Here's the key problem....logistically, Russia has done a crappy job ever since the war started.  When you talk of fuel, food, ammo, basic materials for a front....I think this whole front will collapse for the most part by the 10th day.  Fewer than a quarter of the invading force will make it.

By the 20th day, I expect the bulk of this northern invasion front to collapse.  You could be talking about 30,000 to 50,000 dead or wounded (frost-bite will be a big deal).....with serious allegations of commanders shooting their own men, and eventually....the reservists shooting their commanders.  

3.  By late December....the northern invasion will be deemed one of the greatest military failures of the past 100 years.  The bulk of the Belarus tanks?  Gone.  

Around Belarus....a lot of public sentiment will be negative....over the loss of several thousand of their young men. 

Blame will finally be dished out, with Shoigu (Russian Defense Minister) given the bulk of the blame.....to be arrested for these failures.

Meanwhile....in the far south of Ukraine (at the other front).....Russian supply lines will dwindle, and open rebellion by December will start to occur as Russian troops refuse orders.

I expect another activation of more Russian reservists by the end of December....in the 500,000 range.  It'll be at this point where the economy of Russia starts to falter starts to fail.  

My general assessment.....the Russian strategy has reached a failed state.

Q-and-A

 1.  Is there too much natural gas in Europe now (over 100-percent)?

Well....based on all of the various countries, their reserves, and what sits on ships (LNG-type) off the coast....there's 100-percent.  Germany will likely hit the 100-percent in the next couple of days.....due to unseasonably warm weather for October.  

2.  Pro-Russian sentiment in Hamburg.....with a car marked with the Russian 'Z' symbol?

Well....older German guy, in his 60s.....did this back in March.  Cops pulled him over and were able to cite a law, and the fine of 50 Euro is handed to him.  This was a daily rate....so 80 days later.....it was adjusted up to 4,000 Euro.

3.  Bundestag drafting up a cash-ban on purchasing property?

Yes, and it's aimed in particular at Russians who simply drive up....unload a suitcase of cash, and buy a German property. 

4.  All of this mobilization chatter from Russia.....was the upper limit 300,000?

Well....N-TV covered this in the AM today, and there is some evidence that the real number became 500,000.  

One might look at this and suggest some massive invasion.  However, they screwed this up by a huge loss of tanks/APCs in the first six months of the war.  So if you try to make this a infantry war....logistically, it will fail.  

I might add here.....if you drafted up or obligated half-a-million Russian male workers....the Russian economy will come to some major stumble within 90 days.  

Documentary From Monday Night

 Last night (Monday) via ARD (Channel One of public TV) ran a documentary piece called 'Russia, Putin, and We East Germans'.  A 45-minute piece, with a sports journalist who grew up in eastern Germany and figured that she'd go on a trip.  She would try to understand why so many eastern Germans are pro-Russia on the Ukraine business.

Journalist?  Jessy Wellmer.  

First, let me say this....Wellmer is a sports commentator/journalist/moderator.....so this is a bit outside of normal world.  Yes, she did grow up in the 1990s of former East Germany.....so she has some insight to how people think.  I am a bit surprised that ARD signed up to this....with a sports journalist.  

I watched about 30 minutes of the 45-minute piece and will talk to four observations:

1.  She tried hard to just ask questions and not moderate or show her own opinion....to which 'why' was a central theme to the show.  She gave people a fair chance to talk over their pro-Russia feelings.

2.  I noted after a while....that a lot of the people she spoke to....were over the age of forty-five.  That means that they were at least kids, teenagers, or young adults in the 1980s and saw the full 'blast' of East German propaganda.

3.  The anti-US chatter?  Always there, and typically statements that you would have heard in the past year from Russian talk-show presentations.  

4.  A lot of this leading back to successful propaganda from 1970s/1980s?  OH YES, you absolutely got the feeling that what was heard and believed then.....is still around today.  You can get the same feeling from West Germans who consumed a lot of political propaganda in 1980s/1990s.  You can also cite environmental chatter/propaganda today and how people believe in things with limited or marginal facts.  

So, for Germans who viewed the documentary piece (shown at 8:15 PM)....does it change their view of their fellow countrymen?  First, I don't believe that many people watched the show.  If you follow the normal schedule.....the documentary was not slated for the evening (an odd thing).  The massive bulk of Germans probably watched something else.

Second, a lot of West Germans will tell you this is the remarkable fact that politicians believe that an entire country (like DDR) could be absorbed into West Germany, and they'd be reacting or thinking in the same fashion.  These Germans will tell you that even today....it's two separate groups merged into one single nation.  

Finally, if you wonder why RT (Russian satellite TV in English/German) was turned off for viewing in Germany a number of months ago....it was absolutely done to prevent more BS-propaganda from being pumped into Germany.  

If you want to watch the show (45 minutes, all in German), it's here.  I will say it was done in a fair manner, and ARD's reporter absolutely tried to be neutral in telling this story.  

Yes, it is a bit worrisome on how these older eastern Germans have this view.....30 years later, after the wall came down.  But if you paid attention for the past thirty years.....this view has always been there.  

Is Russia's Putin A Myth?

 A myth is tradionally....a story of a people, a legend, a faked-up natural/social event or reality....which can even involve supernatural things or just a plain made-up story.

So the question here.....has the inner circle and news media of Russia....over a 20-year period....built a legend around Putin....that he can never fulfill?

For several months, I've followed an interesting suggestion among intellectuals....that Putin sees some need to recreate the legendary Soviet empire.  The driving reason for this 'mission impossible'?  

Well....the birth-rate is in decline in Russia, and within thirty years....the military age males for the defense of the nation...will be at a level that Russia cannot ever attempt another 'do-or-die' mission like this.

Course, in his mind....Putin didn't seem to think (back in January) that he'd expend 40-odd thousand young Russian men, and then actually create a quicker path to the birth-rate decline.

At this point now?  I'm probably of the belief that half of the Oligarch folks now see Putin as a burden, and he's responsible for the financial demise of the Russian state.  

But this brings to the big problem....what can you do with a myth or legend?  Can you really dismiss them?  In this case.....no.

Even if tactical nukes fall into play.....I don't think you can do much with a myth or legend in the middle of things.  

If more than 150,000 Russian men die in this effort of the myth?  Well....it simply has to be this way.  You can't stand in the way of a myth.  You can add.....by the end of this year.....more than one-million Russian young men will have found a exit-door out of Russia, and refuse to play in the myth's game.

In the years and decades to come, I think this will be openly discussed and people will be shocked how the myth came to exist in the first place, and exist in this imaginary Russian world for over 20 years.

Knife Attack

 Last Friday, there was a knife attack in Speyer.  I noticed the mention on Saturday, and waited a couple of days for the 'rest' of the story.

So what SWR says (from the police).....this Afghan guy (27 years old) wanted a relationship with a 16-year old local girl.  The girl said 'no'.  There's not a lot of details over her 'no'....we just have to assume she reviewed options and conditions, and just wisely came to a conclusion.....this won't work.  

Anger built up, and the Afghan guy came at the girl and her mother with a knife.

Both were cut to some degree, but appear to be improving today.

Charges?  Dangerous bodily harm will come out of this, and you could be looking at a period in jail for ten years.  Wouldn't surprise me if the prosecutor finds another charge or two....to guarantee fifteen years in prison.  

Maturity problem?  Generally, when you see these knife attacks over some love interest....it goes to a maturity issue and the guy (never a woman) can't handle a turn-down.  In his mind, it's an insult, and you can't allow women to insult you in this fashion.

I know....it's silly, but this is the 'big' world we live in Germany today.  

German Power Costs

 Current price of electricity in Germany (Oct 2022)?  53 Euro cents, per KwH.  A year ago, it would have been in the 35-to-38 Euro cent range.  Trendline?  Well....by summer of 2023, it's probably hitting 65 Euro cents.

Current price of natural gas in Germany (Oct 2022)?  It's running around 22 Euro cents, per KwH.  A year ago?  It would have been near 12-to-13 Euro cents.  Trendline?  Well.....by summer of 2023, it's probably hitting 30 Euro cents minimum. 

What's this all add up to?  More recession for 2023, and conditions likely to extend over into 2024.  

Is There A National Crisis Shortage of Mars Bars in Germany?

 Well....it goes this way.

You walk into a REWE or Edeka grocery....to find no Mars Bars on the shelf, so you assume there's some kind of shortage.

The truth to the matter is that Mars (the company) sent the cost of the products up to a level, that REWE and Edeka felt was too high.  

What's it run at a normal grocery?  74 Euro cents....for a 51 gram bar (Kaufland).  If you shop at Metro....a 32-pack of Mars runs around 49 Euro cents each (note: Metro is a bulk store where small grocery or pubs buy their products).

So whatever Mars is quoting for the price for the two grocery operations....they simply don't agree with the value, and have said 'no'.  So Mars doesn't supply their product to them. 

A big deal?  I shop at both REWE and Edeka....almost weekly.  If you step into the candy aisle of either....there's more than 100 alternate products.....so you don't really miss the missing product.

NOTE: I was at my village post office today, and the going price for a Mars Bar....is 1.00 Euro.  Yeah, it's a hefty amount....I admit, and I doubt if the post office lady sells more than one a week.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  Every year, a German committee researches newly 'invented' words among German teenagers, and proclaims top words of the year.  Number one for 2022?  'Smash', which means you are hooking up with some person for lustful moment.  'Bodenlos' (translated into English means bottomless) came in second.....meaning incredibly bad or terrible.  'Macher' (translated into English, means doer) came in third.....meaning someone who implements or does things....without being told and have zero hesitation.  

2.  I've mentioned the mayor of Tubingen a couple of times in the past week (he was re-elected mayor on Sunday).  Yesterday, some ZDF journalist was interviewing Boris Palmer and thought to 'catch' him on a question....asking if he was going to change his style in the new term.  Boris sat and quietly responded...."Maybe you should change the style of your questions."  I like the guy, and he'd make a great PM....but since being kicked out of the Green Party....most of the parties wouldn't touch him.

3.  Some German guy had a cat in his residence around Stuttgart, who'd wander off.  He'd fixed the cat up with a GPS unit.  Apparently, she wasn't seen for several days, and when he went to the tracker.....the cat was now in Hamburg.  Begs a lot of questions.

4.  'Dirty' bomb chatter coming up a good bit in public forums now in Germany.  You basically go and get a bucket of nuclear waste, and just dump it into a regular plain bomb.  Any idiot could do this.  Russians claim Ukraine is preparing to accomplish this type of bomb. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus had an article this AM....talking over the explosive upswing on German energy prices, and how gas-cars are now cheaper to operate than E-cars.  If this doesn't reverse....it'll be near impossible (I think) to convince people to dump fuel cars for E-cars.

2.  I talked about the mayor's race in Tübingen a few days ago.....election concluded last night.  Former Green Party member Boris Palmer.....kicked out of his party....ran a race where he was unattached with any party.  He beat the competition....just over 50-percent of the vote.

I think it was a shock for the Greens....that he could run his own campaign without any party help, and get a majority of city votes.  

3.  Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ended up calling several NATO folks (including US Secretary of Defense Austin) to hype up his belief in some 'dirty' bomb that Ukraine is developing.  All of them showed respect but basically told him that the war needs to be halted.

4.  A German school review has concluded that from 4th grade German kids....about 20-percent can't perform the math of that level.  Some blame toward classes missed over Covid.  

5.  We had some kind of weird car accident in Wiesbaden Saturday evening (8:30) where some Mercedes ran a red-light at high speed (based on the police description....at least a 100 kph in a 50 kph zone), and hit a VW.  Mercedes flipped over....several of the passengers thrown out of the vehicle as it flipped.  VW driver?  As of this morning....dead.  Very likely to be charges for the Mercedes driver.  This all occurred no more than 800 feet from the train station in the center part of town.  

My Nuke-Worry Scenario

 Shocker?  The Russian Defense Minister (Shoigu) came today and said that Ukraine has some program to develop a nuke weapon and use it on Russia.

BS factors?  Well....I'd give a '3'....mostly because I think that even three PhD nuke scientists could easily sit down in a week....draw the basic plan, and in six months....easily put together a nuke weapon of some type.  Now....if you asked.....could it be on a missile?  No.  On a rocket?  Probably not.  I'm just talking about a standard nuke bomb on a fighter....dragged off to some point and 'dumped' to explode.

My question?  Is it just now that Russia woke up and realized that it doesn't take that much to develop a nuke, and that this whole war thing could get really 'nasty' in a matter of a week?  Seriously.....now they worry about this?

My scenario would be that Russia does the nuke bomb (tactical) thing, and believes that this will scare the Ukrainians in some way.....waking up seven days later with three nuke explosions within the Russian territory, and one of them on the outer 'loop' of Moscow.

At that point, the whole 'blast-them' mentality will take off, and a dozen tactical nukes will be used on Ukraine.....with three or four additional nukes on Russia.  

Where would the stopping point be, and how would the general public in Russia react?  Would five-million Russians now be freaked out and trying to find some exit to the west.....out of Russia?   

Questions

 Last night, my wife (German in nature) pulled out a video clip from TV Total (a Pro-7 comedy-talk show).  They tend to do a lot of interviews and ask both stupid and smart questions.

So in 7-minute clip....they asked about a dozen people (ages 17 to 21) around five questions.  

These were questions like....who were the Stassi (the former East German Secret Police).....who was Chancellor when the Wall came down (Kohl)....where was the old West German capital (Bonn)....what BRD stood for (the Federal Republic of Germany, or old West Germany).

To be honest, I knew all of the answers. 

These dozen young folks?  They knew absolutely nothing.  

At the end, I suggested to the wife if you'd asked them what three-quarters of an hour was (45 minutes).....none of them could have answered the question....as well.

What's this video indicate?  Well....most German kids are not that gifted when they graduate from school....into an apprentice program.  Dish out information.....simply forget about it the day after the exam.

About 20 years ago, I watched a German baker talk about his personal test for German kids applying for apprentice jobs in his operation.  He had a standard test of 10 questions.....example: what was half of 150 degrees.....what was a quarter of 60 minutes....who was the Chancellor.    It was rare that he had some kid who answered all of the questions, and most kids failed miserably on use of regular math (in fractions or decimal).  

I'm not saying the kids are stupid....but around age 18....you have these expectations of general knowledge and ability....to which these were failing miserably.

A sign of the times?  Maybe.  

Q-and-A

 1.  When the 'war' ends.....will Germany go back to importing natural gas from Russia?

The Premier-President for Saxony (Kretschmer, CDU) has spoken to this idea over the weekend....saying that ending the war should automatically resolve the sales of natural gas.

Personally, I don't see the war ending in the next six months, and these alternate methods that Germany will use....will become more concrete.  Maybe there is some resolution and sales of natural gas....but it won't be even half of what existed in 2021.

2.  Heating oil furnaces returning to homes?

There was supposed to be a end-point to heating oil (regulated by the federal government) and in recent weeks.....it appears the public is increasing the purchase and installation of these (over natural gas furnaces).  

3.  Huge demonstrations in Germany yesterday, against Iran?

Police say 80,000 were out and about.....nice weather helped in making this possible.

Round Peg In A Square Hole: What Made Hitler A Bit Odd

 1.  Most political leaders of parties (from France, the UK, the US, and even Germany to this point)....were regarded as being fairly educated, accomplished, or intellectual people in charge of their respected parties.  Hitler, other than a painter-wall paper guy, discharged guy from the Army with a medal, and being a Austrian citizen....somehow rose to carry an entire party with 3 x 5 inch index card resume.

2.  Hitler, if you graded him on military strategy competency...even to the very end....on a scale of one to ten....probably wouldn't go past a '2'.

3.  An authority on anything?  Well....art, but it's not to say it'd been any better than a plumber in Hamburg, or a brewery-master out of Trier.

4.  Hitler, by the end in 1945....still didn't have a driver's license.

5.  Hitler's primary job in late 1918/early 1919?  He was supposed to be a insider 'spy' for the Bavarian Secret Police....watching over a new party called the Nationalist Socialist Party.  Of a thousand-odd jobs....this is the one that he probably should never have been hired for. 

6.  Hitler had an absolute hatred and dislike of any individual using narcotics/drugs, and it came to a shock to him in the final three months of his life.....his personal doctor had gotten him hooked on cocaine and opiates.

7.  Hitler was a normal consumer of meat....to about the last three years of his life...converting to a vegetarian.  This switch was supposed to resolve stomach problems.

8.  Did Hitler quit beer and alcohol over the final couple of years?  Yeah, due to digestive issues.

9.  Hitler having one son?  The story goes from his WW I years....he had some relationship in France....producing one son (died in the mid-1980s).  Some historians believe the story....some don't.  

10.  At some point, due to family issues....Hitler (as a kid) made a decision to run away from the family.  Dad found out about this and beat Hitler until he was unconscious and in some coma-like spell (several days).   You can question how this would have affected history....if he'd successfully run away and joined some circus crew traveling around Austria and Bavaria.  

Five Things

 1.  Likely new PM for UK?  Sunak (who was number two) from previous selection committee....will end up as PM, while Johnson will be openly discussed....then discarded.

How long Sunak will last?  I give him 12 months max.  Depending on the energy crisis this winter.....it might not even reach 100 days.

2.  This forced 're-vote' in Berlin (the city) from last year's election?  

The court says it'll occur, but a number of people are shaking their heads.....that things may show a lot less voters showing up, and that the results in this city/state election may flip an entire different election.  

3.  RKI health study saying from the 2022 summer period....4,500 Germans died from the heat?

Yeah, that's what they say.....from heat stroke to added health issues.  

Here's the thing though....out of 83-million residents....if you really zeroed in on every single death and how it occurred....you can probably find a minimum of 1,000 folks in Germany dying every July from heat.  It's just that folks don't dig that much into a dead guy's last 24 hours and how he reached room temperature.

4.  The German Federal Statistics Bureau stood up and said that in the winter of 2021....probably around 2.6-million Germans simply couldn't heat their apartment/house enough, and 'suffered'.

This claim, which I respect, lays out the issue that Germans often suffer....even when it's not a huge impact year....like the winter we are about to enter.  

5.  There's going to be a UN investigation into the drone business in Ukraine....with the Iranians being the focus of manufacturing and operating.

Just my humble feeling...it won't take more than four weeks to prove the source, and at that point....Iran is going to have a international pressure problem.  Whatever they are going to be paid in....by the Russians....better be worth the hassle.

Wiesbaden Sitting On Top Of A Geothermal Situation?

 Around 15 million years ago....volcanic activity ended over in the Vogelsberg area (about an hours drive NE from Wiesbaden).

What remained after this period....was regional hot springs, which Wiesbaden had an abundance of, and became a cornerstone of wellness activity back in the late 1800s.

So this week, there's an announcement of some drilling to take place (down to 100 meters) in the Hofheim area (about five miles east of Wiesbaden). 

What'll occur?  A thermal test.

At the end of the test....either there's business/commerce opportunities coming, with a abundance of warm waters, or nothing.

Law Passed

 This AM, the Bundestag passed the 'Debt Brake'.

What it means? 

The Basic Law (the Constitution) was changed to allow a massive 200-billion 'gift' to cover cost of energy.  It says in basic terms....the government should have the assets to do this....without a massive loan (I'd question this part of the gimmick).

The coalition will now cover in some fashion....for the next six months, the cost of electricity and natural gas to German consumers.  

I might add this one detail.....that's only for this period....not the winter of next fall (2023).  I anticipate prices will still be a problem then.

Observations

 1.  PM Truss gone in the UK.

I think if you went to regular Brits....about half of them will say that they aren't that shocked that she's gone in less than two months, and that the Tory Party (in general) is disconnected from the bulk of the nation.

As for what happens now?  I think Boris Johnson comes out of some hole and asks if people want him, and the response will be 'yes'.  The Tories?  They may want someone else but they can't afford to have a repeat in two months of the next guy resigning.

What they really need?  Somewhere out of thin air.....they need a 'manager' (not a political figure).....to resolve their issues, and get them a clear path for three years.

2.  Marginal shelves in German grocery stores?

Basically, the manufacturing side is still producing, but escalating prices....to which the grocery stores are saying 'no, you can't push prices up that much'.  So orders are lessening, and shelves are appearing here and there....less filled.  

It's not a shortage....it's just a handling tactic by the stores themselves.  

I spent an hour in a discount shop this week, and I'd say that 10-percent of the shelves were marginally filled.  

3.  This port discussion up in Hamburg?

There's a huge loading dock in Hamburg, which some Chinese freight company wants to buy.  

Local authorities and the federal folks are pretty much determined now to halt the sale.  

4.  Fracking being discussed?

Well....the Greens will say 'absolutely not', but the industry itself is making the options known.  

Once you get to a absolute shortage of natural gas in the spring, I think the government will approve a period (say five years) to frack on German soil.  I also think the 'Greta-kids' will try to hinder this, and make this some national social agenda to defeat.

Toilet Story

 Last night, via VOX (commercial German TV) around 8:15 PM....ran this show called Vox_Insider.  Topic?  The crappy conditions of apartments throughout Germany.

So the investigative journalists went out and found this building in Wurzburg that had a 20-odd square meter apartment (yeah, tiny), with a big hole cut in the corner and this weird stairway (like a step-ladder) that led downstairs....to some cubby-hole bathroom/kitchen (maybe 12 square meters).

Owners wanted to charge you around 300 to 400 Euro for this 'trap'.

I asked my wife what kind of idiot would cut a hole like this in a floor? 

She responded this had to be a nutcase to cut the floor like this, and most Germans would never rent something like this.  I tried to imagine myself waking up at 2 AM, and needing to relieve myself.....then climbing some ladder down....to do my business.  

Tampon Chatter

 For some reason....in Stuttgart....at the city hall for the town....the Green Party has enforced some standard where a free-tampon dispenser device is now in the men's bathrooms.

The CDU (Merkel's old party) has commented in a harsh way over this.

Some Germans will ask if German men know how to apply the tampons.  While some other Germans will ask if these are dulux or standard cheapo stock from Albania.  

With all the energy hype going on....it's pretty crazy to push for an agenda item like this.....putting tampons in men's bathroom.  I can think of a thousand higher priorities to be concerned about. 

Six Things Standing Out In The German News

 1.  Three German state Health Ministers are saying the mandate for all medical personnel (nurses included) to be vaxed-up.....is having a serious problem to fill positions.  They want the Covid mandate to be dumped by the federal government.

2.  Back about a year ago (Nov 2021).....Muslim guy on a train between Passau and Hamburg (ICE highspeed) went in an attack mentality....injuring four folks with a knife before being halted.  Mental exam has finally been completed.

So, here's the failed mental status for the guy, and they can't be sure if he's just plain nuts/crazy/mad, or if his religion was drawing him to commit the attack.  Yeah....this is the German health authorities who say this.

The question now?  Is he plain nuts, or faking his mental stability because of his religious standing?  

3.  A car-free experiment was carried out in Berlin, which was supposed to prove that the public is better off in a highly urbanized area....without cars.

Well...the city says the Friedrichstrasse experiment was mostly a failure and will be undone.....cars to be allowed back.

4.  There was an attempt by the Frankfurt city council to create a special and higher fine situation for SUVs in the city.  This was taken to court.  The court says 'NO', you can't rig up fines for only this favored or unfavored vehicle.

5.  The city symbol of Frankfurt is an eagle (if you weren't aware of it). 

Well....it's a unique drawing of a eagle (my general description.....it looks like a pretty sickly eagle that took some voltage or sipped some swamp waters).  

It came out that this design....look....came up in the 1930s and was a Nazi design.  So there's a new campaign underway to design a different eagle....from a non-Nazi group.

6.  The FBI is asking questions in Bremen about the ownership of a particular shipyard.  Some suspicion that it's really a Russian syndicate or mafia group who owns it.

About Natural Gas Worries

 Gabor Steingart wrote a excellent piece for Focus today, which I'd recommend.  Topic?  Natural gas and what Germans ought to worry about.

Five key things that people ought to grasp:

1.  What this reserve amount held by the government amounts to?  About two to three months of normal use by the public.  So, once they crank up this reserve, you can start counting the days before chaos occurs.

2.  Blackouts will only occur, if worst-case scenarios play out.  If you had an average winter, without massive artic storms.....then the odds of a blackout are much less.

3.  These three nuke plants kept running?  They really don't amount to much, if you consider the entire grid.  Basically, one-percent of what you'd need for a year....will be what the three combined, will produce for the whole grid.  As he says....it's all symbolic in nature.....to reassure people.

4.  When a natural gas shortage shows up....people, not companies, get the higher priority.

5.  The only way to avoid chaos....is for every single individual to save and use LESS (than any point in their life).  

Nutcase Story

 Two days ago (Tuesday), in Wiesbaden....we had a unusual situation unfold.

Down in the middle of town (where the old central bus station was located)....some gal went into a tirade....yelling and screaming at people on the street.  

Cops got called.

This was mid-afternoon (1:45 PM).  Cops say that she was fairly verbal in commentary, and very aggressive to people that she came across.

So they tried to just settle her down, and that failed.

At that point, she launched into a tirade against the police, and it simply escalated from that point on.

Asking for an ID....just infuriated her even more.

So they took possession of the gal, and she was sent off for a eval.  Paranoid schizophrenic?  Well....yeah, it does seem that way.  

Again, I'll point out....on any given day now....you have to be aware of the people around you and their actions.  It's not 'safe' like it was in the 1980s.  

Three Things Of A Comical Nature

 I noticed this AM....Russia has sent a warning to the UN....if they attempt to go investigate the use of Iranian drones being used in the war against the Ukraine.

The fact that a number of these have been shot down and analysis is going on to ID who made them?  That probably disturbs the Iranians a good bit.

What I think will happen?  Iran, by the end of next week, will have arrested several civilians in Iran....working for the drone company, and charged them up with serious crimes (worth the death penalty), for secretly selling a couple hundred drones to Russia.  To save 'face', a court will quickly convict the dozen-odd guys, and all will be put to death to settle things.

Number two....lot of chaos building up in the UK, and I'd say that Truss (new PM) will be lucky to still be around by the end of November.  Johnson coming back?  Don't be shocked.

Number three....Berlin's 2021 state-city election has been deemed 'totally crapped-up' and the court says without any doubt....it has to be redone. 

Chief reason?  A lot of the poll folks who were supposed to show up and manage things.....were people who signed up for duty....to get ahead on the line for the Covid vaccination.  Once vaxed-up, they then came at the last minute to fail to show for duty on election day.  Yeah, they manipulated the system....to get the vax.

You can laugh about how this came to be.....but they probably only had half the number of poll workers as they'd normally have....all because of vaxing-up.

A year later, and forced into another election now?  Could this change things radically?  Never been a case like this, and it might shock people on how perceptions flipped votes.  

Nine German News Stories

 1.  The EU is now suspecting Iran of helping Russia (military hardware) and new sanctions are going up over them.  The Mullahs may joke about this but Iran is pretty much in dire economic conditions right now, and this can only make daily life in Iran more crappy.

2.  German tax authorities admitted yesterday that the tax revenue 'bucket' is lessening....mostly because of cash being used to resolve energy woes.

3.  The delivery service 'Gorillas' is fading.  A couple of years ago, their idea for food delivery was a big-deal.  Doubtful that they will survive this.

4.  Some new study appeared in Focus....to say that Germans MUST cut natural gas use by 30-percent in the future.

To be honest, with the new furnace we put into the basement, and upgraded windows....back around three years ago, we did cut consumption by 25-percent.  Getting any more positive numbers?  No, for this house, it's maxed out unless you flip the temperature down by three degrees. 

5.  Lot of information coming out about the 2021 Ahr Valley flood, and the mishandling by the authorities on the evening of the flood.  Heavy criticism being laid out on the Premier-President (Dreyer, SPD).  One story revolves around a home where disabled people were not helped, with a dozen-odd folks dying.

6.  The Last Generation (environmentalist teenagers) blocked off autobahn exits around Berlin in the past week.  An ambulance was making a run and they were (by their own statements) supposed to allow the vehicle to pass.  They didn't. 

What'll happen?  If some death occurs because of a blockage by the teenagers.....it's possible that a serious charge will pop up, and real jail time starts to be a part of the 'game'.

7.  Over in Mecklenburg, a refugee center (older wood building) caught on fire and burned down.  Arson is suspected.

8.  Some chatter came up last night by the Finance Minister....suggesting that French nuke plants might be selling power to Germany.  Probably a shock to the Greens who were seriously anti-nuke and now realizing that even when they turn off the last three power plants (March 2023).....they will still be consuming nuke power in some way.

9.  The national network agency running the natural gas process....now suggest that a shortage is now possible for Feb 2023 and rolling into March.  Yeah, they aren't talking about just homes....it's business operations affected as well.

Russia in Ten Years and Twenty-Five Years

 This is one of those essays I write....looking at the landscape, and 'pace' of things.

For those who weren't aware of it.....the birth-rate for Russia is 1.2 (meaning each woman produces just 1.2 kids for a couple).  Yeah the nation is in decline....probably for the past two decades.  

Part of this can be blamed on the quality of Russian men....some on the cost of living....and some on women having a higher focus on jobs and advancement.

The current population?  144-million....more or less, at least what the government says.  If you ask about this being fraudulent data?  Well...this comes up and some people will speculate this was probably a true number around the 1990s (bumping to a max in the early 1990s to around 148-million).  Some suggest there's a 150,000 loss every year since then.....with the death-rate and exit-rate affecting the true number.  

So with the war in full 'bloom'....what's the loss rate now?  Lets be honest and admit the Ukraine suggestion of 120,000 dead is faked-up.  But lets add the battlefield deaths, desertion numbers (not going back to Russia), the activation of the reservists with guys exiting Russia, and the group of young Russian men who left in the past eight months to avoid Conscription.  My number rests around 1-million total....mostly men, who aren't Russian residents anymore.  

Here's the thing.....in some communities, if you asked....women aren't going to have a real chance of finding some guy for marriage, unless they leave Russia as well.  

As this plays out for Russia in 2032?  If young men continue to exit around age 17 to 20....to avoid the draft, and a lower birth-rate plays out....I'd suggest the Russian population is closer to 130-million by that point.  

How this plays out for Russia at the 2047 point?  I would suggest the numbers now get closer to 125-million level.  

Taking into consideration the production level required....to rebuild the military and continue a high level of 'status'....will the numbers be adequate for Putin and the next guy or two who assumes the job?   No....it's doubtful that their agenda can be maintained with a serious decline in manpower.  

If the Reservists come to a higher degree of death?  You could make the case that by spring of 2023, out of the 300,000....at least 10-percent won't be coming back. If the fear of the draft continues with the war-mix?  Then you could imagine a higher decline in population, with Russian young men seeking asylum in various countries.  

So I come to my final point....to feed the world on the idea that Russia is a super-power and at the level of the US....they can only project this image in a marginal way today, and over the next decade....they will no longer be this super-power.  Intelligence analysts will have to invent a word to assign to Russia because of this decline.

This war, whether it makes sense or not.....is the last great military ride for Russia.  In a decade, they will no longer have the manpower to carry out a task like this.

My Own Heating Costs

 Yesterday, from the natural gas provider.....we got the 'adjustment' warning letter.  So for November, and on into 2023....the monthly amount we should submit to be close to the right amount.....is now 404 Euro (about 133-percent increase over last year's letter).....for heat and hot water in the house.

Yeah, roughly 4,800 Euro per year, for a 70-odd square meter place, with two people. Around 20 years ago, in the old K-Town residence...it would have been near 1,000 Euro per year.  

Even the wife responded that it's possible that the 404 Euro level could be pushed up again by March of 2023.  By the end of 2023?  I expect it to be near 500 Euro a month.  

Yeah, the gov't has a plan to cover some of the cost, and maybe 100 Euro of this monthly is absorbed by them.....but later affecting our taxation in some way.

Other than moving to Florida....there's just not much to change this landscape.

Q-and-A

 1.  How big a deal is the Bavarian and Hessen state elections in 2023 (set for the fall time period)?

Well...it's building up to be a fairly big drama.  The Greens are expecting pick up votes in Bavaria, and the SPD is hoping to generate some hype in Hessen.  The FDP?  Presently, they are in a fear of showing lesser results than five years ago, and showing some national downward trend.  It will be a dramatic period where the public can establish their frustration over the cost of living, inflation, and the energy crisis.  

2.  How much does a election 'custodian' get paid for their work?

Typically, 60 Euro....for one full day (8 hours) of work.

3.  Is ARD and ZDF (public German TV) carrying the 'water' for coalition parties (SPD, Greens, FDP)?

Well....they carry interviews with the key ministers and high-ranking political figures.  Generally, they are asking tough questions, and getting at least a response.  If you asked me if most are pro-Green, or pro-SPD?  I'd respond 'no', that they want to simply clear the air and give the public some type of answer to problems.

4.  Is there Russian martial law in these annexed regions of Ukraine?

As of today.....yes.  

5.  Is there a shortage of medications going on in Germany?

Roughly 1,000 different types of prescription and over-the-counter medications....are in short supply.  You can blame the logistical path, and China production for this.

6.  A standard closing time for German grocery stores coming?

Well....there is a request coming to the sixteen states, and there's a belief by the end of November.....standard closing will be something like 8 PM....maybe even 7 PM......instead of 10 PM.

I will say this....if you walk  into any German grocery after 8 PM.....its rare to see more than ten customers (in the smaller operations).  

Dortmund This AM

 Early this AM (4:30 AM) in Dortmund....cops got called.

So, what unfolded was this situation where some guy on the street was rampaging, and cops told him to 'chill-out'.  He continued his 'act', and then the cops pulled out the tasers and applied them (perhaps a fair bit). 

At that point, he finally collapsed, and got carried off to the hospital.  Declared dead at 6:19.

Likely to create an anti-police agenda in town?  Yeah....I'd suggest that.

There will be some state investigation out of this, and questions over the stun power.  

Drug use?  Well....no one suggests that, but usually in situations where a guy doesn't grasp what's going on, or that the police are asking you calm down.....you probably are on some type of drug.  

The problem here is that sooner or later....the taser business will be outlawed, and you go back to the old agenda.....just pull a pistol out and try to hit the guy in the leg or shoulder.  

Encounter Story

 Last night, the wife and I were at the regional German grocery store (I'll leave the name out).  I wandered off in the store, and the wife ended up in some aisle where a homeless guy approached.....asking/begging for money.  She declined, and departed the corner of the store quickly.

If you were gaging the homeless population of Wiesbaden...it's probably tripled in the past three years compared to what it was in the 1990s. 

In the walk-platz (center of town where all the big shops are located).....there's probably forty of these folks camped out on the streets and wandering around to beg off people. 

The encounter in the grocery?  First time that I've seen that.

Trying to guess the city population now for this crowd?  Between the druggies, the nutcases, and the unfortunate.....probably in the range of 250 folks now. 

My gut feeling where this is going to lead?  I have a number of choices over grocery-shopping and I don't have to shop in Wiesbaden itself....I can venture to small towns around Wiesbaden, and avoid the encounters....if I desire.  It's stupid to have this discussion, but you don't need to have these odd encounters in the middle of grocery trip.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Aldi Nord (the grocery chain) announced a change due to the heat/electricity crisis.  They will no longer stay open to 10 PM at night.  They will go to a 8 PM closure.  

Just the beginning....I expect all of the grocery chains to do the same thing, and some even resorting to a 6 PM closure on Saturday evenings....to save on heat and power.

2.  Some political figure for the FDP Party (millionaire)....was on a public forum show, and a question came up about the cost of butter.  He had absolutely no idea what the current cost of butter was up to.  But I doubt if he's actually been in a grocery store in at least a decade.

My wife on the other hand?  She can cite pricing for fifty-odd products.....week to week, and probably knows more on economic trends than half the politicians in the Bundestag.

3.  The German Ministry of Health is wrapping up it's draft of how cannabis (weed) can be legally sold in Germany.  20 grams or less....would be legal to hold in your hand....on the street.  Age?  Minimum of 18.

THC limit?  Well.....level of 15.  This part of the draft is going to disappoint some hard core users of marijuana.  

4.  There's some financial chatter in Germany going on....about business relationships back in China, and the belief that a banking and finance 'collapse' is going to occur 'shortly' (meaning in the next six months).

It's worrying some German business folks because they exported to China a good bit.

5.  Nord Stream 'damage' on number one?  Well.....50 meters of pipe are gone.  

Update On The Knife Attack

 Yesterday, I essayed about a knife attack in the Ludwigshafen area.  Two dead.....two wounded (including the knife guy).  Things only simmered down upon the arrival of the police, and one pulling a gun to wound the knife guy.

So the rest of the story.

The knife guy?  Somali migrant guy.

I'll predict the rest of the scripted 'discovery' by the authorities.  Knife guy had mental issues....paranoid schizophrenia, and had been under care for several months to a couple of years.  

Since it was standard procedure in the 'old' country to carry knives for protection....he assumed the same behavior in Germany.  

Charges?  I'll go ahead and predict that once the judge finished the mental exam part.....murder charges are dismissed, and the guy spends the rest of his life in a German fenced-in mental center.  

It is a tragic part of German society today.....reoccurring about every six months, and the script tends to repeat over and over.  You could be at a drug store, a train station, or just a bus stop.....with schizophrenia 'clicking' on for some guy and you just end being a target for some irrational situation.  The only odd thing....it's always a guy....never a gal. 

Yeah, About That 200 Billion Loan

 The German Finance Ministry intends to borrow around 200-billion Euro....to get through the winter months with energy and heating worries.   Well...today, the national Federal Court of Auditors stood up and said this was unconstitutional.....as the German Constitution is written today.

A mess?

They'd have to rewrite the Constitution, and it'd have to be done in a hurry....which makes you wonder if it can be done.....and pass via the court system later, if challenged. 

Knife Attack

 Ending up as front-page news today....knife attack down in the Oggersheim area of Ludwigshafen.

One guy....25 years old.  Motive unclear.

First attack out on the street....guy walks from there to a local drug store....attacks a second person there.

Two dead so far.

Police arrive....end up shooting the guy (wounded, not dead).  Only thing that witnesses say....there was a argument between the knife guy and victim number one....which started everything.

Five German News Stories

 1.  The Chancellor stepped into the situation with the nuke power situation (currently three remain operational).  The Green Party position?  Only two of the nuke plants were to be kept open to the end of March 2023.  The Chancellor (Scholz) said 'no'.....all three stay open.

2.  This chatter out of the Ukraine that drones are under development?  My BS-meter is pinging near a '6' on this.  They say the drone could carry a 75 kg bomb, and have the range of 1,000 km (enough to hit Minsk or Moscow).

My belief?  The only way this program could be working is that it's a model already existing from Turkey or Israel, and the parts are sent into the Ukraine for them to assemble.  

If this were to exist and they set a couple of drones out for long-distance targets?  It'd change the dynamics rather quick....probably hitting various fuel production plants and shutting down gas production.

3.  Climate activists in Berlin disrupted the Chancellor's speech yesterday.

4.  Test results released for 4th grade kids in Germany for 2022.  Dismal numbers in math, reading and writing.  Blame going toward Covid and shut-downs of the past two years.

5.  WELT ran a pretty heft/long article this AM on 'long' blackouts and what to anticipate.  Lot of journalists are preparing people for what is expected to be 24 to 72 hour blackouts.  Hard to say if this is bogus or potentially true.  

Last Night's TV Shows

 First, ARD (Channel One) ran a curious show called Hirschhausen's Check-Up: Long Covid.

You can watch here. (in German, and around 45 minutes long).

Curiously, he went out to survey the aspects of Long Covid, and toward the last half of the show....talked over individuals who'd not had Covid, but had health conditions triggered by the vaccination.

Pretty dramatic and would make people ask a lot of questions over the vax situation.  

Second, after this program ended....they went to Hard But Fair (a public forum, live, and the topic was the energy chaos).  You can watch it here.

I'd generally say that it was a depressing program for a German to watch because they laid out the cost of trying to heat an apartment, or keeping a cafe/restaurant open for the winter.  

The one pub owner had shut down his business for three days a week because he couldn't afford the costs.  

The Never-Ending War or The 80 Years War

 Sometimes, I do historical essays to lay out periods of history in Europe, which aren't that well known.

So in the mid-1560s....there is a fair amount of public sentiment building up in the region of Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and northern Germany.

Driving force?  King Phillip II of Spain has control over the Netherlands, and has decided to stamp out anti-Spain residents.  The sentiment?  Basically, if you add up the taxation, the anti-Catholic Church sentiment, and general lack rights of the more wealthy residents of the region....there's going to be a long drawn out 'war'.

In early 1648, after a number of high points and low points in this conflict....it finally ended (after 80 years).

Dead?  It's not a tidy or factual situation.  Most historians will say that a minimum of 100,000 people were killed in the region over the 80-year period.

What happened after the peace was worked out?  Most people will agree that the folks in Belgium (ending up as Spanish-controlled for a while) got the worst part of the economic deal.....while suggesting that the Netherlands became some international trading 'power', and the next two-hundred years are a significant plus period for the Dutch....without religious entanglement.