The Next Sixty Days of the 'War'

 With a lot of Russian conscripts/reservists gathering up in the Belarus region, I would suggest the November 'script' to lead to three things:

1.  I think a gathering of mostly Russian reservists, with some Belarus tanks/APCs in the landscape...will gather within the Ukrainian northern border to Belarus.  Manpower-wise....in a infantry setting.....it'll be in the 300,000 range.  

All of this will be easily seen by US/NATO....in the ten days of preparing for the new invasion.

The objective?  Take Kiev.  

2.  Somewhere between mid-November to the end of November....this plan will start.

How many tanks does Belarus have to 'share'?  The nation maintains that they have four tank brigades, and something in the range of 1,200 tanks (at least they say this number), but some folks indicate that 800 of these tanks are in reserve (meaning that they might not be fully operational).  So the real number might be closer to 400 tanks to 'share'.

I expect Ukraine will go back to anti-tank missiles, and by the 3rd day of this 'invasion'.....more than half of the Belarus tanks will be in a disabled condition.

The 300,000 reservists mostly walking into Ukraine?  It's about 160 km (100 miles).  If they walked in a straight path and along roads.....they could hike to the outer edge of Kiev in three days, but I really don't expect them to have their speed.  Add to it.....it's fall weather, and the roads would be the last place  to open walk.

So I don't see the reservists arriving to the outer 'ring' of Kiev until the 15th day.  

Here's the key problem....logistically, Russia has done a crappy job ever since the war started.  When you talk of fuel, food, ammo, basic materials for a front....I think this whole front will collapse for the most part by the 10th day.  Fewer than a quarter of the invading force will make it.

By the 20th day, I expect the bulk of this northern invasion front to collapse.  You could be talking about 30,000 to 50,000 dead or wounded (frost-bite will be a big deal).....with serious allegations of commanders shooting their own men, and eventually....the reservists shooting their commanders.  

3.  By late December....the northern invasion will be deemed one of the greatest military failures of the past 100 years.  The bulk of the Belarus tanks?  Gone.  

Around Belarus....a lot of public sentiment will be negative....over the loss of several thousand of their young men. 

Blame will finally be dished out, with Shoigu (Russian Defense Minister) given the bulk of the blame.....to be arrested for these failures.

Meanwhile....in the far south of Ukraine (at the other front).....Russian supply lines will dwindle, and open rebellion by December will start to occur as Russian troops refuse orders.

I expect another activation of more Russian reservists by the end of December....in the 500,000 range.  It'll be at this point where the economy of Russia starts to falter starts to fail.  

My general assessment.....the Russian strategy has reached a failed state.

Q-and-A

 1.  Is there too much natural gas in Europe now (over 100-percent)?

Well....based on all of the various countries, their reserves, and what sits on ships (LNG-type) off the coast....there's 100-percent.  Germany will likely hit the 100-percent in the next couple of days.....due to unseasonably warm weather for October.  

2.  Pro-Russian sentiment in Hamburg.....with a car marked with the Russian 'Z' symbol?

Well....older German guy, in his 60s.....did this back in March.  Cops pulled him over and were able to cite a law, and the fine of 50 Euro is handed to him.  This was a daily rate....so 80 days later.....it was adjusted up to 4,000 Euro.

3.  Bundestag drafting up a cash-ban on purchasing property?

Yes, and it's aimed in particular at Russians who simply drive up....unload a suitcase of cash, and buy a German property. 

4.  All of this mobilization chatter from Russia.....was the upper limit 300,000?

Well....N-TV covered this in the AM today, and there is some evidence that the real number became 500,000.  

One might look at this and suggest some massive invasion.  However, they screwed this up by a huge loss of tanks/APCs in the first six months of the war.  So if you try to make this a infantry war....logistically, it will fail.  

I might add here.....if you drafted up or obligated half-a-million Russian male workers....the Russian economy will come to some major stumble within 90 days.  

Documentary From Monday Night

 Last night (Monday) via ARD (Channel One of public TV) ran a documentary piece called 'Russia, Putin, and We East Germans'.  A 45-minute piece, with a sports journalist who grew up in eastern Germany and figured that she'd go on a trip.  She would try to understand why so many eastern Germans are pro-Russia on the Ukraine business.

Journalist?  Jessy Wellmer.  

First, let me say this....Wellmer is a sports commentator/journalist/moderator.....so this is a bit outside of normal world.  Yes, she did grow up in the 1990s of former East Germany.....so she has some insight to how people think.  I am a bit surprised that ARD signed up to this....with a sports journalist.  

I watched about 30 minutes of the 45-minute piece and will talk to four observations:

1.  She tried hard to just ask questions and not moderate or show her own opinion....to which 'why' was a central theme to the show.  She gave people a fair chance to talk over their pro-Russia feelings.

2.  I noted after a while....that a lot of the people she spoke to....were over the age of forty-five.  That means that they were at least kids, teenagers, or young adults in the 1980s and saw the full 'blast' of East German propaganda.

3.  The anti-US chatter?  Always there, and typically statements that you would have heard in the past year from Russian talk-show presentations.  

4.  A lot of this leading back to successful propaganda from 1970s/1980s?  OH YES, you absolutely got the feeling that what was heard and believed then.....is still around today.  You can get the same feeling from West Germans who consumed a lot of political propaganda in 1980s/1990s.  You can also cite environmental chatter/propaganda today and how people believe in things with limited or marginal facts.  

So, for Germans who viewed the documentary piece (shown at 8:15 PM)....does it change their view of their fellow countrymen?  First, I don't believe that many people watched the show.  If you follow the normal schedule.....the documentary was not slated for the evening (an odd thing).  The massive bulk of Germans probably watched something else.

Second, a lot of West Germans will tell you this is the remarkable fact that politicians believe that an entire country (like DDR) could be absorbed into West Germany, and they'd be reacting or thinking in the same fashion.  These Germans will tell you that even today....it's two separate groups merged into one single nation.  

Finally, if you wonder why RT (Russian satellite TV in English/German) was turned off for viewing in Germany a number of months ago....it was absolutely done to prevent more BS-propaganda from being pumped into Germany.  

If you want to watch the show (45 minutes, all in German), it's here.  I will say it was done in a fair manner, and ARD's reporter absolutely tried to be neutral in telling this story.  

Yes, it is a bit worrisome on how these older eastern Germans have this view.....30 years later, after the wall came down.  But if you paid attention for the past thirty years.....this view has always been there.  

Is Russia's Putin A Myth?

 A myth is tradionally....a story of a people, a legend, a faked-up natural/social event or reality....which can even involve supernatural things or just a plain made-up story.

So the question here.....has the inner circle and news media of Russia....over a 20-year period....built a legend around Putin....that he can never fulfill?

For several months, I've followed an interesting suggestion among intellectuals....that Putin sees some need to recreate the legendary Soviet empire.  The driving reason for this 'mission impossible'?  

Well....the birth-rate is in decline in Russia, and within thirty years....the military age males for the defense of the nation...will be at a level that Russia cannot ever attempt another 'do-or-die' mission like this.

Course, in his mind....Putin didn't seem to think (back in January) that he'd expend 40-odd thousand young Russian men, and then actually create a quicker path to the birth-rate decline.

At this point now?  I'm probably of the belief that half of the Oligarch folks now see Putin as a burden, and he's responsible for the financial demise of the Russian state.  

But this brings to the big problem....what can you do with a myth or legend?  Can you really dismiss them?  In this case.....no.

Even if tactical nukes fall into play.....I don't think you can do much with a myth or legend in the middle of things.  

If more than 150,000 Russian men die in this effort of the myth?  Well....it simply has to be this way.  You can't stand in the way of a myth.  You can add.....by the end of this year.....more than one-million Russian young men will have found a exit-door out of Russia, and refuse to play in the myth's game.

In the years and decades to come, I think this will be openly discussed and people will be shocked how the myth came to exist in the first place, and exist in this imaginary Russian world for over 20 years.

Knife Attack

 Last Friday, there was a knife attack in Speyer.  I noticed the mention on Saturday, and waited a couple of days for the 'rest' of the story.

So what SWR says (from the police).....this Afghan guy (27 years old) wanted a relationship with a 16-year old local girl.  The girl said 'no'.  There's not a lot of details over her 'no'....we just have to assume she reviewed options and conditions, and just wisely came to a conclusion.....this won't work.  

Anger built up, and the Afghan guy came at the girl and her mother with a knife.

Both were cut to some degree, but appear to be improving today.

Charges?  Dangerous bodily harm will come out of this, and you could be looking at a period in jail for ten years.  Wouldn't surprise me if the prosecutor finds another charge or two....to guarantee fifteen years in prison.  

Maturity problem?  Generally, when you see these knife attacks over some love interest....it goes to a maturity issue and the guy (never a woman) can't handle a turn-down.  In his mind, it's an insult, and you can't allow women to insult you in this fashion.

I know....it's silly, but this is the 'big' world we live in Germany today.  

German Power Costs

 Current price of electricity in Germany (Oct 2022)?  53 Euro cents, per KwH.  A year ago, it would have been in the 35-to-38 Euro cent range.  Trendline?  Well....by summer of 2023, it's probably hitting 65 Euro cents.

Current price of natural gas in Germany (Oct 2022)?  It's running around 22 Euro cents, per KwH.  A year ago?  It would have been near 12-to-13 Euro cents.  Trendline?  Well.....by summer of 2023, it's probably hitting 30 Euro cents minimum. 

What's this all add up to?  More recession for 2023, and conditions likely to extend over into 2024.  

Is There A National Crisis Shortage of Mars Bars in Germany?

 Well....it goes this way.

You walk into a REWE or Edeka grocery....to find no Mars Bars on the shelf, so you assume there's some kind of shortage.

The truth to the matter is that Mars (the company) sent the cost of the products up to a level, that REWE and Edeka felt was too high.  

What's it run at a normal grocery?  74 Euro cents....for a 51 gram bar (Kaufland).  If you shop at Metro....a 32-pack of Mars runs around 49 Euro cents each (note: Metro is a bulk store where small grocery or pubs buy their products).

So whatever Mars is quoting for the price for the two grocery operations....they simply don't agree with the value, and have said 'no'.  So Mars doesn't supply their product to them. 

A big deal?  I shop at both REWE and Edeka....almost weekly.  If you step into the candy aisle of either....there's more than 100 alternate products.....so you don't really miss the missing product.

NOTE: I was at my village post office today, and the going price for a Mars Bar....is 1.00 Euro.  Yeah, it's a hefty amount....I admit, and I doubt if the post office lady sells more than one a week.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  Every year, a German committee researches newly 'invented' words among German teenagers, and proclaims top words of the year.  Number one for 2022?  'Smash', which means you are hooking up with some person for lustful moment.  'Bodenlos' (translated into English means bottomless) came in second.....meaning incredibly bad or terrible.  'Macher' (translated into English, means doer) came in third.....meaning someone who implements or does things....without being told and have zero hesitation.  

2.  I've mentioned the mayor of Tubingen a couple of times in the past week (he was re-elected mayor on Sunday).  Yesterday, some ZDF journalist was interviewing Boris Palmer and thought to 'catch' him on a question....asking if he was going to change his style in the new term.  Boris sat and quietly responded...."Maybe you should change the style of your questions."  I like the guy, and he'd make a great PM....but since being kicked out of the Green Party....most of the parties wouldn't touch him.

3.  Some German guy had a cat in his residence around Stuttgart, who'd wander off.  He'd fixed the cat up with a GPS unit.  Apparently, she wasn't seen for several days, and when he went to the tracker.....the cat was now in Hamburg.  Begs a lot of questions.

4.  'Dirty' bomb chatter coming up a good bit in public forums now in Germany.  You basically go and get a bucket of nuclear waste, and just dump it into a regular plain bomb.  Any idiot could do this.  Russians claim Ukraine is preparing to accomplish this type of bomb. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus had an article this AM....talking over the explosive upswing on German energy prices, and how gas-cars are now cheaper to operate than E-cars.  If this doesn't reverse....it'll be near impossible (I think) to convince people to dump fuel cars for E-cars.

2.  I talked about the mayor's race in Tübingen a few days ago.....election concluded last night.  Former Green Party member Boris Palmer.....kicked out of his party....ran a race where he was unattached with any party.  He beat the competition....just over 50-percent of the vote.

I think it was a shock for the Greens....that he could run his own campaign without any party help, and get a majority of city votes.  

3.  Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ended up calling several NATO folks (including US Secretary of Defense Austin) to hype up his belief in some 'dirty' bomb that Ukraine is developing.  All of them showed respect but basically told him that the war needs to be halted.

4.  A German school review has concluded that from 4th grade German kids....about 20-percent can't perform the math of that level.  Some blame toward classes missed over Covid.  

5.  We had some kind of weird car accident in Wiesbaden Saturday evening (8:30) where some Mercedes ran a red-light at high speed (based on the police description....at least a 100 kph in a 50 kph zone), and hit a VW.  Mercedes flipped over....several of the passengers thrown out of the vehicle as it flipped.  VW driver?  As of this morning....dead.  Very likely to be charges for the Mercedes driver.  This all occurred no more than 800 feet from the train station in the center part of town.  

My Nuke-Worry Scenario

 Shocker?  The Russian Defense Minister (Shoigu) came today and said that Ukraine has some program to develop a nuke weapon and use it on Russia.

BS factors?  Well....I'd give a '3'....mostly because I think that even three PhD nuke scientists could easily sit down in a week....draw the basic plan, and in six months....easily put together a nuke weapon of some type.  Now....if you asked.....could it be on a missile?  No.  On a rocket?  Probably not.  I'm just talking about a standard nuke bomb on a fighter....dragged off to some point and 'dumped' to explode.

My question?  Is it just now that Russia woke up and realized that it doesn't take that much to develop a nuke, and that this whole war thing could get really 'nasty' in a matter of a week?  Seriously.....now they worry about this?

My scenario would be that Russia does the nuke bomb (tactical) thing, and believes that this will scare the Ukrainians in some way.....waking up seven days later with three nuke explosions within the Russian territory, and one of them on the outer 'loop' of Moscow.

At that point, the whole 'blast-them' mentality will take off, and a dozen tactical nukes will be used on Ukraine.....with three or four additional nukes on Russia.  

Where would the stopping point be, and how would the general public in Russia react?  Would five-million Russians now be freaked out and trying to find some exit to the west.....out of Russia?   

Questions

 Last night, my wife (German in nature) pulled out a video clip from TV Total (a Pro-7 comedy-talk show).  They tend to do a lot of interviews and ask both stupid and smart questions.

So in 7-minute clip....they asked about a dozen people (ages 17 to 21) around five questions.  

These were questions like....who were the Stassi (the former East German Secret Police).....who was Chancellor when the Wall came down (Kohl)....where was the old West German capital (Bonn)....what BRD stood for (the Federal Republic of Germany, or old West Germany).

To be honest, I knew all of the answers. 

These dozen young folks?  They knew absolutely nothing.  

At the end, I suggested to the wife if you'd asked them what three-quarters of an hour was (45 minutes).....none of them could have answered the question....as well.

What's this video indicate?  Well....most German kids are not that gifted when they graduate from school....into an apprentice program.  Dish out information.....simply forget about it the day after the exam.

About 20 years ago, I watched a German baker talk about his personal test for German kids applying for apprentice jobs in his operation.  He had a standard test of 10 questions.....example: what was half of 150 degrees.....what was a quarter of 60 minutes....who was the Chancellor.    It was rare that he had some kid who answered all of the questions, and most kids failed miserably on use of regular math (in fractions or decimal).  

I'm not saying the kids are stupid....but around age 18....you have these expectations of general knowledge and ability....to which these were failing miserably.

A sign of the times?  Maybe.  

Q-and-A

 1.  When the 'war' ends.....will Germany go back to importing natural gas from Russia?

The Premier-President for Saxony (Kretschmer, CDU) has spoken to this idea over the weekend....saying that ending the war should automatically resolve the sales of natural gas.

Personally, I don't see the war ending in the next six months, and these alternate methods that Germany will use....will become more concrete.  Maybe there is some resolution and sales of natural gas....but it won't be even half of what existed in 2021.

2.  Heating oil furnaces returning to homes?

There was supposed to be a end-point to heating oil (regulated by the federal government) and in recent weeks.....it appears the public is increasing the purchase and installation of these (over natural gas furnaces).  

3.  Huge demonstrations in Germany yesterday, against Iran?

Police say 80,000 were out and about.....nice weather helped in making this possible.

Round Peg In A Square Hole: What Made Hitler A Bit Odd

 1.  Most political leaders of parties (from France, the UK, the US, and even Germany to this point)....were regarded as being fairly educated, accomplished, or intellectual people in charge of their respected parties.  Hitler, other than a painter-wall paper guy, discharged guy from the Army with a medal, and being a Austrian citizen....somehow rose to carry an entire party with 3 x 5 inch index card resume.

2.  Hitler, if you graded him on military strategy competency...even to the very end....on a scale of one to ten....probably wouldn't go past a '2'.

3.  An authority on anything?  Well....art, but it's not to say it'd been any better than a plumber in Hamburg, or a brewery-master out of Trier.

4.  Hitler, by the end in 1945....still didn't have a driver's license.

5.  Hitler's primary job in late 1918/early 1919?  He was supposed to be a insider 'spy' for the Bavarian Secret Police....watching over a new party called the Nationalist Socialist Party.  Of a thousand-odd jobs....this is the one that he probably should never have been hired for. 

6.  Hitler had an absolute hatred and dislike of any individual using narcotics/drugs, and it came to a shock to him in the final three months of his life.....his personal doctor had gotten him hooked on cocaine and opiates.

7.  Hitler was a normal consumer of meat....to about the last three years of his life...converting to a vegetarian.  This switch was supposed to resolve stomach problems.

8.  Did Hitler quit beer and alcohol over the final couple of years?  Yeah, due to digestive issues.

9.  Hitler having one son?  The story goes from his WW I years....he had some relationship in France....producing one son (died in the mid-1980s).  Some historians believe the story....some don't.  

10.  At some point, due to family issues....Hitler (as a kid) made a decision to run away from the family.  Dad found out about this and beat Hitler until he was unconscious and in some coma-like spell (several days).   You can question how this would have affected history....if he'd successfully run away and joined some circus crew traveling around Austria and Bavaria.  

Five Things

 1.  Likely new PM for UK?  Sunak (who was number two) from previous selection committee....will end up as PM, while Johnson will be openly discussed....then discarded.

How long Sunak will last?  I give him 12 months max.  Depending on the energy crisis this winter.....it might not even reach 100 days.

2.  This forced 're-vote' in Berlin (the city) from last year's election?  

The court says it'll occur, but a number of people are shaking their heads.....that things may show a lot less voters showing up, and that the results in this city/state election may flip an entire different election.  

3.  RKI health study saying from the 2022 summer period....4,500 Germans died from the heat?

Yeah, that's what they say.....from heat stroke to added health issues.  

Here's the thing though....out of 83-million residents....if you really zeroed in on every single death and how it occurred....you can probably find a minimum of 1,000 folks in Germany dying every July from heat.  It's just that folks don't dig that much into a dead guy's last 24 hours and how he reached room temperature.

4.  The German Federal Statistics Bureau stood up and said that in the winter of 2021....probably around 2.6-million Germans simply couldn't heat their apartment/house enough, and 'suffered'.

This claim, which I respect, lays out the issue that Germans often suffer....even when it's not a huge impact year....like the winter we are about to enter.  

5.  There's going to be a UN investigation into the drone business in Ukraine....with the Iranians being the focus of manufacturing and operating.

Just my humble feeling...it won't take more than four weeks to prove the source, and at that point....Iran is going to have a international pressure problem.  Whatever they are going to be paid in....by the Russians....better be worth the hassle.

Wiesbaden Sitting On Top Of A Geothermal Situation?

 Around 15 million years ago....volcanic activity ended over in the Vogelsberg area (about an hours drive NE from Wiesbaden).

What remained after this period....was regional hot springs, which Wiesbaden had an abundance of, and became a cornerstone of wellness activity back in the late 1800s.

So this week, there's an announcement of some drilling to take place (down to 100 meters) in the Hofheim area (about five miles east of Wiesbaden). 

What'll occur?  A thermal test.

At the end of the test....either there's business/commerce opportunities coming, with a abundance of warm waters, or nothing.

Law Passed

 This AM, the Bundestag passed the 'Debt Brake'.

What it means? 

The Basic Law (the Constitution) was changed to allow a massive 200-billion 'gift' to cover cost of energy.  It says in basic terms....the government should have the assets to do this....without a massive loan (I'd question this part of the gimmick).

The coalition will now cover in some fashion....for the next six months, the cost of electricity and natural gas to German consumers.  

I might add this one detail.....that's only for this period....not the winter of next fall (2023).  I anticipate prices will still be a problem then.

Observations

 1.  PM Truss gone in the UK.

I think if you went to regular Brits....about half of them will say that they aren't that shocked that she's gone in less than two months, and that the Tory Party (in general) is disconnected from the bulk of the nation.

As for what happens now?  I think Boris Johnson comes out of some hole and asks if people want him, and the response will be 'yes'.  The Tories?  They may want someone else but they can't afford to have a repeat in two months of the next guy resigning.

What they really need?  Somewhere out of thin air.....they need a 'manager' (not a political figure).....to resolve their issues, and get them a clear path for three years.

2.  Marginal shelves in German grocery stores?

Basically, the manufacturing side is still producing, but escalating prices....to which the grocery stores are saying 'no, you can't push prices up that much'.  So orders are lessening, and shelves are appearing here and there....less filled.  

It's not a shortage....it's just a handling tactic by the stores themselves.  

I spent an hour in a discount shop this week, and I'd say that 10-percent of the shelves were marginally filled.  

3.  This port discussion up in Hamburg?

There's a huge loading dock in Hamburg, which some Chinese freight company wants to buy.  

Local authorities and the federal folks are pretty much determined now to halt the sale.  

4.  Fracking being discussed?

Well....the Greens will say 'absolutely not', but the industry itself is making the options known.  

Once you get to a absolute shortage of natural gas in the spring, I think the government will approve a period (say five years) to frack on German soil.  I also think the 'Greta-kids' will try to hinder this, and make this some national social agenda to defeat.

Toilet Story

 Last night, via VOX (commercial German TV) around 8:15 PM....ran this show called Vox_Insider.  Topic?  The crappy conditions of apartments throughout Germany.

So the investigative journalists went out and found this building in Wurzburg that had a 20-odd square meter apartment (yeah, tiny), with a big hole cut in the corner and this weird stairway (like a step-ladder) that led downstairs....to some cubby-hole bathroom/kitchen (maybe 12 square meters).

Owners wanted to charge you around 300 to 400 Euro for this 'trap'.

I asked my wife what kind of idiot would cut a hole like this in a floor? 

She responded this had to be a nutcase to cut the floor like this, and most Germans would never rent something like this.  I tried to imagine myself waking up at 2 AM, and needing to relieve myself.....then climbing some ladder down....to do my business.  

Tampon Chatter

 For some reason....in Stuttgart....at the city hall for the town....the Green Party has enforced some standard where a free-tampon dispenser device is now in the men's bathrooms.

The CDU (Merkel's old party) has commented in a harsh way over this.

Some Germans will ask if German men know how to apply the tampons.  While some other Germans will ask if these are dulux or standard cheapo stock from Albania.  

With all the energy hype going on....it's pretty crazy to push for an agenda item like this.....putting tampons in men's bathroom.  I can think of a thousand higher priorities to be concerned about. 

Six Things Standing Out In The German News

 1.  Three German state Health Ministers are saying the mandate for all medical personnel (nurses included) to be vaxed-up.....is having a serious problem to fill positions.  They want the Covid mandate to be dumped by the federal government.

2.  Back about a year ago (Nov 2021).....Muslim guy on a train between Passau and Hamburg (ICE highspeed) went in an attack mentality....injuring four folks with a knife before being halted.  Mental exam has finally been completed.

So, here's the failed mental status for the guy, and they can't be sure if he's just plain nuts/crazy/mad, or if his religion was drawing him to commit the attack.  Yeah....this is the German health authorities who say this.

The question now?  Is he plain nuts, or faking his mental stability because of his religious standing?  

3.  A car-free experiment was carried out in Berlin, which was supposed to prove that the public is better off in a highly urbanized area....without cars.

Well...the city says the Friedrichstrasse experiment was mostly a failure and will be undone.....cars to be allowed back.

4.  There was an attempt by the Frankfurt city council to create a special and higher fine situation for SUVs in the city.  This was taken to court.  The court says 'NO', you can't rig up fines for only this favored or unfavored vehicle.

5.  The city symbol of Frankfurt is an eagle (if you weren't aware of it). 

Well....it's a unique drawing of a eagle (my general description.....it looks like a pretty sickly eagle that took some voltage or sipped some swamp waters).  

It came out that this design....look....came up in the 1930s and was a Nazi design.  So there's a new campaign underway to design a different eagle....from a non-Nazi group.

6.  The FBI is asking questions in Bremen about the ownership of a particular shipyard.  Some suspicion that it's really a Russian syndicate or mafia group who owns it.

About Natural Gas Worries

 Gabor Steingart wrote a excellent piece for Focus today, which I'd recommend.  Topic?  Natural gas and what Germans ought to worry about.

Five key things that people ought to grasp:

1.  What this reserve amount held by the government amounts to?  About two to three months of normal use by the public.  So, once they crank up this reserve, you can start counting the days before chaos occurs.

2.  Blackouts will only occur, if worst-case scenarios play out.  If you had an average winter, without massive artic storms.....then the odds of a blackout are much less.

3.  These three nuke plants kept running?  They really don't amount to much, if you consider the entire grid.  Basically, one-percent of what you'd need for a year....will be what the three combined, will produce for the whole grid.  As he says....it's all symbolic in nature.....to reassure people.

4.  When a natural gas shortage shows up....people, not companies, get the higher priority.

5.  The only way to avoid chaos....is for every single individual to save and use LESS (than any point in their life).  

Nutcase Story

 Two days ago (Tuesday), in Wiesbaden....we had a unusual situation unfold.

Down in the middle of town (where the old central bus station was located)....some gal went into a tirade....yelling and screaming at people on the street.  

Cops got called.

This was mid-afternoon (1:45 PM).  Cops say that she was fairly verbal in commentary, and very aggressive to people that she came across.

So they tried to just settle her down, and that failed.

At that point, she launched into a tirade against the police, and it simply escalated from that point on.

Asking for an ID....just infuriated her even more.

So they took possession of the gal, and she was sent off for a eval.  Paranoid schizophrenic?  Well....yeah, it does seem that way.  

Again, I'll point out....on any given day now....you have to be aware of the people around you and their actions.  It's not 'safe' like it was in the 1980s.  

Three Things Of A Comical Nature

 I noticed this AM....Russia has sent a warning to the UN....if they attempt to go investigate the use of Iranian drones being used in the war against the Ukraine.

The fact that a number of these have been shot down and analysis is going on to ID who made them?  That probably disturbs the Iranians a good bit.

What I think will happen?  Iran, by the end of next week, will have arrested several civilians in Iran....working for the drone company, and charged them up with serious crimes (worth the death penalty), for secretly selling a couple hundred drones to Russia.  To save 'face', a court will quickly convict the dozen-odd guys, and all will be put to death to settle things.

Number two....lot of chaos building up in the UK, and I'd say that Truss (new PM) will be lucky to still be around by the end of November.  Johnson coming back?  Don't be shocked.

Number three....Berlin's 2021 state-city election has been deemed 'totally crapped-up' and the court says without any doubt....it has to be redone. 

Chief reason?  A lot of the poll folks who were supposed to show up and manage things.....were people who signed up for duty....to get ahead on the line for the Covid vaccination.  Once vaxed-up, they then came at the last minute to fail to show for duty on election day.  Yeah, they manipulated the system....to get the vax.

You can laugh about how this came to be.....but they probably only had half the number of poll workers as they'd normally have....all because of vaxing-up.

A year later, and forced into another election now?  Could this change things radically?  Never been a case like this, and it might shock people on how perceptions flipped votes.  

Nine German News Stories

 1.  The EU is now suspecting Iran of helping Russia (military hardware) and new sanctions are going up over them.  The Mullahs may joke about this but Iran is pretty much in dire economic conditions right now, and this can only make daily life in Iran more crappy.

2.  German tax authorities admitted yesterday that the tax revenue 'bucket' is lessening....mostly because of cash being used to resolve energy woes.

3.  The delivery service 'Gorillas' is fading.  A couple of years ago, their idea for food delivery was a big-deal.  Doubtful that they will survive this.

4.  Some new study appeared in Focus....to say that Germans MUST cut natural gas use by 30-percent in the future.

To be honest, with the new furnace we put into the basement, and upgraded windows....back around three years ago, we did cut consumption by 25-percent.  Getting any more positive numbers?  No, for this house, it's maxed out unless you flip the temperature down by three degrees. 

5.  Lot of information coming out about the 2021 Ahr Valley flood, and the mishandling by the authorities on the evening of the flood.  Heavy criticism being laid out on the Premier-President (Dreyer, SPD).  One story revolves around a home where disabled people were not helped, with a dozen-odd folks dying.

6.  The Last Generation (environmentalist teenagers) blocked off autobahn exits around Berlin in the past week.  An ambulance was making a run and they were (by their own statements) supposed to allow the vehicle to pass.  They didn't. 

What'll happen?  If some death occurs because of a blockage by the teenagers.....it's possible that a serious charge will pop up, and real jail time starts to be a part of the 'game'.

7.  Over in Mecklenburg, a refugee center (older wood building) caught on fire and burned down.  Arson is suspected.

8.  Some chatter came up last night by the Finance Minister....suggesting that French nuke plants might be selling power to Germany.  Probably a shock to the Greens who were seriously anti-nuke and now realizing that even when they turn off the last three power plants (March 2023).....they will still be consuming nuke power in some way.

9.  The national network agency running the natural gas process....now suggest that a shortage is now possible for Feb 2023 and rolling into March.  Yeah, they aren't talking about just homes....it's business operations affected as well.

Russia in Ten Years and Twenty-Five Years

 This is one of those essays I write....looking at the landscape, and 'pace' of things.

For those who weren't aware of it.....the birth-rate for Russia is 1.2 (meaning each woman produces just 1.2 kids for a couple).  Yeah the nation is in decline....probably for the past two decades.  

Part of this can be blamed on the quality of Russian men....some on the cost of living....and some on women having a higher focus on jobs and advancement.

The current population?  144-million....more or less, at least what the government says.  If you ask about this being fraudulent data?  Well...this comes up and some people will speculate this was probably a true number around the 1990s (bumping to a max in the early 1990s to around 148-million).  Some suggest there's a 150,000 loss every year since then.....with the death-rate and exit-rate affecting the true number.  

So with the war in full 'bloom'....what's the loss rate now?  Lets be honest and admit the Ukraine suggestion of 120,000 dead is faked-up.  But lets add the battlefield deaths, desertion numbers (not going back to Russia), the activation of the reservists with guys exiting Russia, and the group of young Russian men who left in the past eight months to avoid Conscription.  My number rests around 1-million total....mostly men, who aren't Russian residents anymore.  

Here's the thing.....in some communities, if you asked....women aren't going to have a real chance of finding some guy for marriage, unless they leave Russia as well.  

As this plays out for Russia in 2032?  If young men continue to exit around age 17 to 20....to avoid the draft, and a lower birth-rate plays out....I'd suggest the Russian population is closer to 130-million by that point.  

How this plays out for Russia at the 2047 point?  I would suggest the numbers now get closer to 125-million level.  

Taking into consideration the production level required....to rebuild the military and continue a high level of 'status'....will the numbers be adequate for Putin and the next guy or two who assumes the job?   No....it's doubtful that their agenda can be maintained with a serious decline in manpower.  

If the Reservists come to a higher degree of death?  You could make the case that by spring of 2023, out of the 300,000....at least 10-percent won't be coming back. If the fear of the draft continues with the war-mix?  Then you could imagine a higher decline in population, with Russian young men seeking asylum in various countries.  

So I come to my final point....to feed the world on the idea that Russia is a super-power and at the level of the US....they can only project this image in a marginal way today, and over the next decade....they will no longer be this super-power.  Intelligence analysts will have to invent a word to assign to Russia because of this decline.

This war, whether it makes sense or not.....is the last great military ride for Russia.  In a decade, they will no longer have the manpower to carry out a task like this.

My Own Heating Costs

 Yesterday, from the natural gas provider.....we got the 'adjustment' warning letter.  So for November, and on into 2023....the monthly amount we should submit to be close to the right amount.....is now 404 Euro (about 133-percent increase over last year's letter).....for heat and hot water in the house.

Yeah, roughly 4,800 Euro per year, for a 70-odd square meter place, with two people. Around 20 years ago, in the old K-Town residence...it would have been near 1,000 Euro per year.  

Even the wife responded that it's possible that the 404 Euro level could be pushed up again by March of 2023.  By the end of 2023?  I expect it to be near 500 Euro a month.  

Yeah, the gov't has a plan to cover some of the cost, and maybe 100 Euro of this monthly is absorbed by them.....but later affecting our taxation in some way.

Other than moving to Florida....there's just not much to change this landscape.

Q-and-A

 1.  How big a deal is the Bavarian and Hessen state elections in 2023 (set for the fall time period)?

Well...it's building up to be a fairly big drama.  The Greens are expecting pick up votes in Bavaria, and the SPD is hoping to generate some hype in Hessen.  The FDP?  Presently, they are in a fear of showing lesser results than five years ago, and showing some national downward trend.  It will be a dramatic period where the public can establish their frustration over the cost of living, inflation, and the energy crisis.  

2.  How much does a election 'custodian' get paid for their work?

Typically, 60 Euro....for one full day (8 hours) of work.

3.  Is ARD and ZDF (public German TV) carrying the 'water' for coalition parties (SPD, Greens, FDP)?

Well....they carry interviews with the key ministers and high-ranking political figures.  Generally, they are asking tough questions, and getting at least a response.  If you asked me if most are pro-Green, or pro-SPD?  I'd respond 'no', that they want to simply clear the air and give the public some type of answer to problems.

4.  Is there Russian martial law in these annexed regions of Ukraine?

As of today.....yes.  

5.  Is there a shortage of medications going on in Germany?

Roughly 1,000 different types of prescription and over-the-counter medications....are in short supply.  You can blame the logistical path, and China production for this.

6.  A standard closing time for German grocery stores coming?

Well....there is a request coming to the sixteen states, and there's a belief by the end of November.....standard closing will be something like 8 PM....maybe even 7 PM......instead of 10 PM.

I will say this....if you walk  into any German grocery after 8 PM.....its rare to see more than ten customers (in the smaller operations).  

Dortmund This AM

 Early this AM (4:30 AM) in Dortmund....cops got called.

So, what unfolded was this situation where some guy on the street was rampaging, and cops told him to 'chill-out'.  He continued his 'act', and then the cops pulled out the tasers and applied them (perhaps a fair bit). 

At that point, he finally collapsed, and got carried off to the hospital.  Declared dead at 6:19.

Likely to create an anti-police agenda in town?  Yeah....I'd suggest that.

There will be some state investigation out of this, and questions over the stun power.  

Drug use?  Well....no one suggests that, but usually in situations where a guy doesn't grasp what's going on, or that the police are asking you calm down.....you probably are on some type of drug.  

The problem here is that sooner or later....the taser business will be outlawed, and you go back to the old agenda.....just pull a pistol out and try to hit the guy in the leg or shoulder.  

Encounter Story

 Last night, the wife and I were at the regional German grocery store (I'll leave the name out).  I wandered off in the store, and the wife ended up in some aisle where a homeless guy approached.....asking/begging for money.  She declined, and departed the corner of the store quickly.

If you were gaging the homeless population of Wiesbaden...it's probably tripled in the past three years compared to what it was in the 1990s. 

In the walk-platz (center of town where all the big shops are located).....there's probably forty of these folks camped out on the streets and wandering around to beg off people. 

The encounter in the grocery?  First time that I've seen that.

Trying to guess the city population now for this crowd?  Between the druggies, the nutcases, and the unfortunate.....probably in the range of 250 folks now. 

My gut feeling where this is going to lead?  I have a number of choices over grocery-shopping and I don't have to shop in Wiesbaden itself....I can venture to small towns around Wiesbaden, and avoid the encounters....if I desire.  It's stupid to have this discussion, but you don't need to have these odd encounters in the middle of grocery trip.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Aldi Nord (the grocery chain) announced a change due to the heat/electricity crisis.  They will no longer stay open to 10 PM at night.  They will go to a 8 PM closure.  

Just the beginning....I expect all of the grocery chains to do the same thing, and some even resorting to a 6 PM closure on Saturday evenings....to save on heat and power.

2.  Some political figure for the FDP Party (millionaire)....was on a public forum show, and a question came up about the cost of butter.  He had absolutely no idea what the current cost of butter was up to.  But I doubt if he's actually been in a grocery store in at least a decade.

My wife on the other hand?  She can cite pricing for fifty-odd products.....week to week, and probably knows more on economic trends than half the politicians in the Bundestag.

3.  The German Ministry of Health is wrapping up it's draft of how cannabis (weed) can be legally sold in Germany.  20 grams or less....would be legal to hold in your hand....on the street.  Age?  Minimum of 18.

THC limit?  Well.....level of 15.  This part of the draft is going to disappoint some hard core users of marijuana.  

4.  There's some financial chatter in Germany going on....about business relationships back in China, and the belief that a banking and finance 'collapse' is going to occur 'shortly' (meaning in the next six months).

It's worrying some German business folks because they exported to China a good bit.

5.  Nord Stream 'damage' on number one?  Well.....50 meters of pipe are gone.  

Update On The Knife Attack

 Yesterday, I essayed about a knife attack in the Ludwigshafen area.  Two dead.....two wounded (including the knife guy).  Things only simmered down upon the arrival of the police, and one pulling a gun to wound the knife guy.

So the rest of the story.

The knife guy?  Somali migrant guy.

I'll predict the rest of the scripted 'discovery' by the authorities.  Knife guy had mental issues....paranoid schizophrenia, and had been under care for several months to a couple of years.  

Since it was standard procedure in the 'old' country to carry knives for protection....he assumed the same behavior in Germany.  

Charges?  I'll go ahead and predict that once the judge finished the mental exam part.....murder charges are dismissed, and the guy spends the rest of his life in a German fenced-in mental center.  

It is a tragic part of German society today.....reoccurring about every six months, and the script tends to repeat over and over.  You could be at a drug store, a train station, or just a bus stop.....with schizophrenia 'clicking' on for some guy and you just end being a target for some irrational situation.  The only odd thing....it's always a guy....never a gal. 

Yeah, About That 200 Billion Loan

 The German Finance Ministry intends to borrow around 200-billion Euro....to get through the winter months with energy and heating worries.   Well...today, the national Federal Court of Auditors stood up and said this was unconstitutional.....as the German Constitution is written today.

A mess?

They'd have to rewrite the Constitution, and it'd have to be done in a hurry....which makes you wonder if it can be done.....and pass via the court system later, if challenged. 

Knife Attack

 Ending up as front-page news today....knife attack down in the Oggersheim area of Ludwigshafen.

One guy....25 years old.  Motive unclear.

First attack out on the street....guy walks from there to a local drug store....attacks a second person there.

Two dead so far.

Police arrive....end up shooting the guy (wounded, not dead).  Only thing that witnesses say....there was a argument between the knife guy and victim number one....which started everything.

Five German News Stories

 1.  The Chancellor stepped into the situation with the nuke power situation (currently three remain operational).  The Green Party position?  Only two of the nuke plants were to be kept open to the end of March 2023.  The Chancellor (Scholz) said 'no'.....all three stay open.

2.  This chatter out of the Ukraine that drones are under development?  My BS-meter is pinging near a '6' on this.  They say the drone could carry a 75 kg bomb, and have the range of 1,000 km (enough to hit Minsk or Moscow).

My belief?  The only way this program could be working is that it's a model already existing from Turkey or Israel, and the parts are sent into the Ukraine for them to assemble.  

If this were to exist and they set a couple of drones out for long-distance targets?  It'd change the dynamics rather quick....probably hitting various fuel production plants and shutting down gas production.

3.  Climate activists in Berlin disrupted the Chancellor's speech yesterday.

4.  Test results released for 4th grade kids in Germany for 2022.  Dismal numbers in math, reading and writing.  Blame going toward Covid and shut-downs of the past two years.

5.  WELT ran a pretty heft/long article this AM on 'long' blackouts and what to anticipate.  Lot of journalists are preparing people for what is expected to be 24 to 72 hour blackouts.  Hard to say if this is bogus or potentially true.  

Last Night's TV Shows

 First, ARD (Channel One) ran a curious show called Hirschhausen's Check-Up: Long Covid.

You can watch here. (in German, and around 45 minutes long).

Curiously, he went out to survey the aspects of Long Covid, and toward the last half of the show....talked over individuals who'd not had Covid, but had health conditions triggered by the vaccination.

Pretty dramatic and would make people ask a lot of questions over the vax situation.  

Second, after this program ended....they went to Hard But Fair (a public forum, live, and the topic was the energy chaos).  You can watch it here.

I'd generally say that it was a depressing program for a German to watch because they laid out the cost of trying to heat an apartment, or keeping a cafe/restaurant open for the winter.  

The one pub owner had shut down his business for three days a week because he couldn't afford the costs.  

The Never-Ending War or The 80 Years War

 Sometimes, I do historical essays to lay out periods of history in Europe, which aren't that well known.

So in the mid-1560s....there is a fair amount of public sentiment building up in the region of Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and northern Germany.

Driving force?  King Phillip II of Spain has control over the Netherlands, and has decided to stamp out anti-Spain residents.  The sentiment?  Basically, if you add up the taxation, the anti-Catholic Church sentiment, and general lack rights of the more wealthy residents of the region....there's going to be a long drawn out 'war'.

In early 1648, after a number of high points and low points in this conflict....it finally ended (after 80 years).

Dead?  It's not a tidy or factual situation.  Most historians will say that a minimum of 100,000 people were killed in the region over the 80-year period.

What happened after the peace was worked out?  Most people will agree that the folks in Belgium (ending up as Spanish-controlled for a while) got the worst part of the economic deal.....while suggesting that the Netherlands became some international trading 'power', and the next two-hundred years are a significant plus period for the Dutch....without religious entanglement.

Five German News Stories

 1.  N-TV ran a piece today on Covid....saying statistical numbers are up....to suggest that one German out of ten....has Covid-symptoms, and goes to work anyway.  

2.  Speech by the German Transportation Minister this weekend....saying that accepting crappy conditions for the Bahn (the national railway system) was not acceptable.  If you have problems....fix them.

Generally, if you asked people who regularly use the Bahn.....they all have a list of twenty-odd problems that they've noticed (onboard bathrooms not working, late arrivals on a constant basis, etc).

3.  German Health Minister says free Covid tests will NOT come back.....too expensive.

4.  Last night's Tatort (the krimi series on ARD) was one of the weirdest I've seen in years.....based on multiple murders, use of LSD, psycholysis, etc.  

5.  Cops had to be called about a two-family fight on A555 near Koln.  What the police say is two cars (one a taxi and the other being a private car)....had some altercation, and a knife was actually drawn by occupant.  The two had pulled to the side of the autobahn, and the police indicate charges (dangerous bodily harm being one) were being discussed.  Pretty odd event.  

Boris Palmer Still In The News

 Next Sunday (23rd) will be the city mayor election in Tubingen, B-W, Germany.

It's a bit of a unusual election.  Boris Palmer (current mayor) was sort of kicked out of the Green Party in the past year.  The party didn't like his positions on things, and felt he was 'beatable'.  

Presently, around 23 candidates are listed for the election.....with only six being given 'odds'.

What's funny here?  Boris Palmer is running as a non-party guy....in this election.  The Green Party replacement guy?  Right now....is polling around 15-percent.  Boris Palmer?  Polling around 53-percent.  Giesel for the SPD?  He is polling near 20-percent.  

If Palmer wins (especially with 50-plus percent of the vote)?  It says a lot about how locals feel about the guy, his blunt truth, and the positions he's taken....some Green Party related....some being conservative in nature.  

The odd thing....I think in the Baden-Wurttemberg state.....Palmer could probably run a state election theme, and might be able to take one-third of the state votes....if he just had his own 'party'.

Green Party shaking their heads over this?  I would imagine they are frustrated on how Palmer remains a public figure, and half the city wants the guy to remain as mayor.  

Obituary Story

 Focus published this story in the AM today.

Last week, there was an obituary for a Moscow city administration guy (actual chief of some department).

Alexey Martynov (28 years old) had died.

So, some bits and pieces came out about Alexey.  Back on the 23rd of September....he was a reservist who'd been activated for the Putin 'war'.

A few days after that, he was uniformed-up and sent to the Ukraine.  He died on the 10th of October (figure two weeks of duty before he was killed).

Once the obituary came out.....various guys who were in the age group affected by the present call, or possibly for the future call....packed up and left.  I'm talking about city employees.....the IT folks, the city water department, sanitation, plans, etc.  

These weren't the people who were called the duty, but if there were future 'calls' or a secondary phase.....they weren't going to sit around and wait.

What this generally means?  Well....numbers aren't discussed, but I would assume in the first wave of the obituary period....there's probably a couple hundred guys from Moscow who left, and by November....you might be talking about several thousand.  These aren't grocery-clerk folks.....they are a key component of city operations.  Without them....the city doesn't effectively function.  

How long before the mayor or city council get worried?  I would imagine each morning now, they do a head-count, and try to assure folks that things are 'safe' for the time being.   Skeptical nature?  I'd say that people are looking at reality and just trying to figure the vast landscape.

A halt to all obituary notices?  Yeah....you probably won't see a single name mentioned unless it's women, or old guys.

Preaching To The Audience

 For the next couple of days, I'm going on harp on 'problems' and 'solutions'.....which you see a lot of examples of this.....on the German news networks, and it's to the level that it feels like 5th grade kids trying to resolve a national crisis.

A good quote here, by Martin Luther King: 

"All progress is precarious, and the solution of one problem brings us face to face with another problem."

Around twenty years ago in Germany....the Bundestag decided that welfare was crapped-out and going to become a national budget crisis.....so they invented 'Hartz IV'.....which was a reformed welfare program....which was going to fix everything.

In various ways, it simply led to the next problem.....that welfare was a 'doom-and-gloom' mess and probably 20-percent of the German public was going to deal with a even bigger mess than what existed prior to 2000.  

We progress now to the newest gimmick....Citizens Money (Burgergeld).  Same type situation....maybe a little more cash, and ease of proof that you are doing bad-offf. 

Covid?  Same way.  This natural gas crisis?  Same issue.  Electrical blackout crisis?  Same way. 

It's almost nightly now that you feel a problem coming up, and the resolution will merely lead onto a newer version of the problem....maybe next year....maybe in three years.  

Problems and Solutions Essay

 "At the heart of the social vision prevalent, among contemporary intellectuals, is the belief that there are problems.....and there are solutions."

-- Thomas Sowell

This is one of those forty-odd quotes that I tend to rank among wise thoughts, and being fairly important to remember.....when in a moment of chaos or turmoil.

Germans do this a lot in public forums....insisting that for every problem, there's going to be a solution.  If you sat and asked a few questions....you'd find that there might be well over a hundred solutions to a problem, then realize that each one had a financial cost/pain, a fairly decent risk of failure, and on the complications scale....represent a 'wreck' in slow-motion.

A couple of years ago....I watched some TV chat where there was an 'insisted' problem, and they had one single solution....which seemed to involve re-distributing cash-flow.  In the mind of the moderator....there was no cheap or zero-thrills solution.

Over the past hundred-odd days, with all the natural gas and escalating prices chatter going on....I see a good bit of intellectual wisdom dispersed, and it begs questions over how effective the solution might really be.  

This becoming a problem on my skeptical 'meter'?  Well....yeah.  I can't readily trust the 'problem' or the 'solution'.....when laid out.  

The public waking up and asking the same questions?  You see this almost daily now.....with trust lacking more and more.

Four German News Stories

 1.  Focus reports....at a Russian military site (on Russian soil, but near the Ukrainian border)....two Ukrainians came up and killed 11 Russian conscripts (wounding 15 others).  

BS factor?  Well....I'd rate it a '8'.  Might be an attack and forty Russians dead.   This is the Russian version of the story and you doubt what happened.

2.  Newly deployed Russian reservists getting body armor?  NO.

Again, via Focus....the story goes that the logistics system is so crapped out....that the new guys have to go on the open market to buy their gear....with prices now tripling in nature.

3.  One of the side-stories in WELT this AM is the chatter from the Bavarian Premier-President (Soder, CSU)....talking of the idea of having air defense systems deployed around major cities of Germany.  He's not quiet saying an attack is potentially there....but he's saying some type of signal should be put up for the Russians.

Cost?  No one says much but would have to be into the five to ten billion range if you wanted to protect twenty of the bigger cities.  Don't go expecting this idea to accepted by the Bundestag.

4.  An EU with 27, 30, or 36 states?

Well....the Chancellor (Scholz, SPD) made a speech yesterday to the idea of enlarging the EU.  Countries that he's talking about?  Moldovia, Ukraine, Georgia, the Balkan states, 

Odds of this happening?  Several of those mentioned (Moldovia, Serbia, Albania for example)....I think could pass the 'test' and be members within five years.  Even Turkey (with some change in leadership) might have some chance of joining.  

Fifty Year Murder Case

 Last night, late.....ARD (Channel One) ran a 'Crime Time' episode.....over a Mainz murder from 1970.  You can view the episode here on YouTube.  It's in German, but I strongly recommend watching it.

So the murder is set in a well-to-do home in Mainz.....a female doctor and her daughter were killed in a pretty violent fashion.  A guy who was known for being an exhibitionist with a low IQ....was the person that the police latched onto.

Fingerprints at the scene?  No.  That's the odd part of the story.  Police came to view that whoever did it....was extremely careful to leave absolutely no fingerprints.  

The guy pinned for the murder?  He still lives today.....in a state prison.....doing now over 50 years for the murder.  Normally, for most murders.....you'd be released by 20 years.  In his case, because he's never repented for the murders....the court system has kept him on.  

There's several reviews going on currently and people are now questioning the way that the police conducted the case, and maybe the guy was innocent of the charges.

The odd factor?  Well....this 17-year old daughter (in a upscale school and considered a high performer).....had written in her diary....she used LSD and sold LSD.

Based on the description of the murder scene.....with the LSD situation in the background.....I'm more inclined to believe one of the daughter's friends or customers were behind the murder.

Just an odd story to view.  

How Close To WW III?

 Well....it's a pretty fair distance to reach something like this.

Putin would have to go and threaten a second country (beyond Ukraine), or get caught in some sabotage event where hundreds of Europeans died.  Presently, I'd put the odds at 10-percent (at best).

Sabotage on the Nord Stream pipes?  So far, no real evidence exists, and you can't discount the Ukrainians as possibly being behind it.

US positioned into some ready position?  Yes, there's US troops in Poland, and the Baltic region.  

Nuke war possibility?  I could see a demonstration of three tactical nukes....to make a point.  That would not be enough to escalate to WW III.

How often is this brought up on German public TV?  Well.....almost nightly, and that's the odd part of the discussion.  

RBB (Berlin Public TV) Back In Crisis Situation?

 Well.....it's come out now (after they 'fired' the director of the regional public TV network)....that there was a clause in the contract about retirement and terminations.

Basically, for any type of firing.....this director of the network, was up for 212,000 Euro a year.....as a pension.

Under a normal ending....coming to the end of the contract, she would have gotten around 106,000 Euro a year.

Yeah, this has gotten out in public and there's some criticism about how this is written and who signed off. 

Comparison with Merkel's (former Chancellor) pension?  She draws around 15,500 Euro a month....so the TV director (a public employee) is making around 3,000 Euro more a month.

My humble view is that it's getting to a point where some truth commission is going to form up, and questions will arise over all of the directors and their contracts.  I don't think it'll end in a pretty fashion.

The more amusing part of this story is that the board of directors who'd normally have oversight or a view of things....seem to confess they know little to nothing about the contract deal.  

The Granny-Is-A-Terrorist Story

 German federal cops say that they've arrested one 75-year old woman on pretty serious charges.

The deal?  Well....this old German gal was intending to get a machine-gun of some type.....kidnap the Federal Health Minister (Lauterbach, SPD).....and had plans to take down the power network (blackouts).

This comes out of the central Saxony region of Germany.

Some right-wing terror organization?  Well....that's the general description of this old gal's gang.  

How this all came to be?  It appears for years and years....she was a teacher in the Pfalz area of Germany, and upon retirement....made comments countering the German Constitution....which dragged her into court, and eventually the state took away her pension (in some fashion)....which apparently made her even more right-wing (the way it looks).  

Now?  If they convict her (I anticipate this).....the state will then move her into a deluxe prison system and cover her living cost for the remainder of her life.

Comical in some ways?  Maybe, but the moment you start talking about kidnapping German government officials....you are treading on 1970s Red Army Faction history, and that freaks out the political establishment.   

The basic story is weird enough....to probably be made into a movie script.  

49-Euro Ticket Chatter

 There was a meeting this week in Germany of the Federal Transportation Minister, and the various state (16) Transportation Ministers.  Topic?  This 49-Euro a moth rail/bus pass.

There's a tremendous amount of hype existing....where people want a cheap public transportation 'deal'.  The meeting result?  They all seemed headed to a January start-up of a national 49-Euro monthly pass.

Chief problem?  Well....even if a third of society buys into this.....it won't be enough money to cover the real cost of running the bus and rail system, so the federal government will have kick in at least a billion or two.....to make this work.

Last night, for the late news on ARD (public TV, Channel One), they ran a simple segment on a 'one-horse' village in the middle of nowhere (Fischerhude, maybe a 12-mile piece east of Bremen).  

The mayor stood there at the one single bus stop for the town....looking at the schedule.  Sixteen buses arrive each day.....eight going one direction.....eight going the other direction.  

The 49-Euro ticket for these people is useless....they won't have the infrastructure to make it worth the deal.  That is the pit of woes that the ticket drags along.

I can drive 30 minutes north of where I live and it's more or less the same story....a very rural area of Hessen.....with marginal bus or rail service.  

I used to live in the K-Town area....in a village which had nine buses a day pass through.  If I rode a bike over to the next village....they had rail service....but only 10 trains passing south, and 10 trains passing north, per day.  On weekends, it'd go to seven trains passing each direction. 

Now, if you live in highly urbanized areas (like Frankfurt, Mainz, or Stuttgart)....the 49-Euro ticket would be terrific.  But is it priced right?  Presently, if you live in Mainz,  and want a monthly pass for the Mainz-to-Frankfurt situation....it's 199-Euro per month (adult price) for the full 30-day schedule.  So when you price this at 49-Euro.....you are subsidizing the urban situation by 150-Euro per person.  The rural guy?  He's not getting the same value.

Where is this leading to?  An unfairness scale.....where urban folks score more because of where they live and they soak up the tax revenue pot.  

Behavior Story

 There's an interesting Focus interview today....with a Jewish Rabbi.

The blunt side of this?  This rabbi....Ariel Kirzon.....has had a encounter or two, where insults were used against him. 

Anti-Semitism in Germany?  Just in general.....you didn't see much of it in the 1960s and 1970s.  I'm not saying Germans were kind-hearted with Jews in that era....it's just that a lot of lectures by West German government political figures and the dynamics of US/UK influence in the 1950s made people keep their mouths shut.

As Focus points out....in the past decade....public insults, hate speech and violence have escalated.

A lot of this done by refugees (non-Germans)?  Well.....there's a strong suggestion to that trend.

So Kirzon is suggesting a pretty dramatic change....as a refugee, you ought to be brought in and read the riot-act on anti-Semitism, sign a document, and if you fail to behave....you get sent back 'home'.

Odds of something like this happening?  It'd be a harsh change to force upon immigrants and refugees.....but if you were going this far, then you might add bad behavior to German women to the list, and a dozen other things.  

I'm not saying it'd really change much on behavior, but you might start the exit process of sending folks back to their homeland.  Oddly enough....it'd be mostly men.  

Finding a backbone in political figures to go this far?  That would be a challenge.

Blackout Chatter

 There's hardly a day that goes by now, with either commercial or public German TV chatting over potential blackouts.

Someone yesterday started to point out in a three-day blackout....that most all local grocery operations, gas stations, and businesses would be closed down.  In the case of grocery stores.....without back-up power, the freezers  and refrigeration areas would fail....food would spoil....and getting resupplied would take two or three days (assuming the warehouse had back-up power).

All of this paused my wife (German in nature) if her company would even function....which I tried to avoid answering the question.

Adding to this dilemma.....with most trains running by electrical means....the Bahn network would shutdown in that affected area.

Easily turning into a major disaster, if the power went off for a day or two?  Yeah.  

Trying to say the whole country would go this way?  No.  I would suggest a fairly confined region....anywhere from a quarter of a state to an entire state is the likely scenario to occur.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  The President of Germany (Steinmeier, SPD) had a picture taken onboard a train....without a COVID mask on.  Hype is pretty negative and there's likely to be an investigation over the picture.

2.  Greta Thunberg gave an interview to ARD (German public TV).  So....nuke energy was discussed, and Greta could not understand why Germans were still using coal energy....instead of going to nuke energy.  

This might drag up a long scientific discussion and Germans might have to admit the whole 'fear' thing over nuke energy was never openly discussed under the Merkel coalition.  

3.  There's been an effort in Berlin to have a out-of-action Russian tank put in front of the Russian embassy.  The Green Party Senator who headed public safety in the city....said no, and forbid it.  The group sponsoring this went to court, and the judge said 'yes, you can put a tank there'.  

Not a big deal....but it shows the political bickering being played out.

4.  This resignation of the Pfalz Interior Minister (Lewentz, SPD)?  This has to do with the Ahr Valley flood from last summer.  There was a police helicopter over the flooded area shortly after reports rolled in, and took video of the situation.

What is generally said.....no one from the Interior Department of the state of the Pfalz.....did anything until daylight.  Locally, resources were active and being used.

Putin Chatter

 If you gaze at the news of the day....there's talk of a meeting between Russia and Ukraine (no date mentioned).

Putin is supposed to meet shortly with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and he wants him to be the mediator of talks with Ukraine.

What Ukraine will demand?  I think three key things: (1) Russian troops leave the Ukraine, (2) war crimes to be accomplished with Russian ranking officers and Wagner contract troops, and (3) no territory to be given to Russia.  They might accept some deal where the Crimea is just totally independent (like Georgia).   

Putin might be agreeable to part of this (troops gone and no territory).  I don't think the war crimes will be accepted.  But Putin might offer up a 'fund' of some type (say 25-billion dollars) to cover damages. 

Lets face it....economically, it's hurting them to continue the war.  Lets also admit.....all this Nazi-talk has gone nowhere.  

Sticking point?  Ukraine wants NATO membership, and Putin can't possibly accept this.  

What Is the German Microcensus?

 Well....every year, the German statistics folks of the government.....conducts what you'd call a mini-census....which typically affects around 800,000 citizens.  Some parts of the census are simple and just a couple of pages.  

It's been brought up that some parts of the microcensus has grown to around 100 pages.

By law (including the EU regulations), you have to fill the paperwork out. 

Course, you can imagine the typical German.....getting this 'folder' in the mailbox, and grasping that it's roughly 100 pages of questions about your life, your property, your values, etc.

The odds of the normal five-page form?  Overwhelming, and usually the normal situation for most people.  

The Dirty Power Story

 I noticed this today, and it's a odd deal.

Belgium has a company (Exmar) that has offered up three barges, which have oil-generated power abilities (450 Mega Watts each) to the Germans.  Each being enough to power 100,000 homes in Germany (roughly).  

Dirty power?  Well....yeah.

Focus talked about this in the AM.

Under normal conditions.....they'd (the Germans) would probably turn this down, but because of the questionable power situation....with the ability to move these around on the river system.....it's not such a crazy thing.

Getting environmentalists upset?  Running off oil....yeah.  My humble belief is that they will offer some deal to have them on standby, and if things get bad enough....float them to the point where they'd be of use.

Five German News Stories

 1.  If you pick up WELT today....there's a piece there detailing the German situation with natural gas reserves.....saying the reserve system is now 95-percent full.  Enough for the winter?  Well....the gov't is careful to note that this is not their 'promise'.  

2.  WELT brought up a warning that the German hospital system is issuing....with Covid patients increasing their use of hospitals, and the current shortage of nurses to support the incoming flow.  

3.  There's a meeting of NATO defense ministers going on, with the top topic of Ukraine being invited to be a member.  One of the odd plus-ups mentioned....is that Ukraine might be the most capable member other than the US....if they were allowed to join, against Russia.  

4.  There's a push going on to establish a national 49-Euro train/bus ticket.  To make this work however.....the federal government would have to contribute some money into the pot....meaning it cost more than 49-Euro to accomplish the ticket dreamed of.

5.  Finally, N-TV brought up a piece over the Russian economy....because of the 'draft' of the 300,000 reservists, and the quick exit out of Russia of tens of thousands more skilled-workers.....the Russian economy is currently in 'free-fall'.  

A Walk

 I spent an hour this morning....walking around the shopping district of Wiesbaden....from one end, to the other.

By the time you count the main avenue, and the side-streets.....there's about twenty-five business fronts....empty.

Some have actually been empty for almost two years.  Most have been empty since early 2022. 

Where businesses failed and shut down.....some new business fronts opened up, and several of those failed by mid-summer.  I noticed one new shop (opened in the past four weeks)....a tattoo/body piercing shop.  To be honest, there's probably not a lot of need for such a shop, but I suspect the rent has gone down enough....that it makes sense.

A bad sign, with 'for rent' signs up?  Well....Covid and decreased capitalism really changed the downtown area, and probably reset things for the upcoming decade.

More homeless people laying around?  That's one of the odd new features....there's probably over forty folks who lounge in the shopping district now....who weren't there a decade ago.

It is a bold new era, and you have to wonder how things progress over the next decade.

Does Germany Have A Limit On Refugees?

 In legal terms....NO.

In physical living accommodations?   YES.

I noticed this morning that Hamburg (the city) has gone to erecting tents (yes, the 10 ft by 15 ft type) to house Ukrainians because temp facilities are now maxed out.  

If you read through the general news.....around 1.1-million individuals have registered as migrants or refugees for 2022 in Germany.  With November and December left?  I'd take a guess it'll come close to 1.3-million by the end of the year.

Rostock went to the use of river cruise vessels.....to house refugees in their local area.

The next problem?  Well....there are now Russians in the mix, who want leave because of the draft situation.  Potential?  No one talks numbers, but it wouldn't surprise me if by spring of 2023.....there's 200,000 Russians seeking some type of visa situation in Germany.  

The anti-migrant chatter like 2015?  Well.....no.  For some reason, the bulk of Germans are accepting of the situation presently.....mostly being pro-Ukrainian in nature, and not really expecting them to stay long term.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  In the next week or two.....the Germans will give the Ukrainians the IRIS-T defense system (able to handle air threats).  Some people believe the air and missile capable of the Russians will finally be cut.

2  Various German states are now putting pressure on the federal government to contribute more money to handle refugees and migrants (over 1.1-million at this point for 2022).

3.  Jungle Camp 2023 (reality German TV show) is passing around a rumor that they've gone to try to convince Claudia Obert to participate.  A note on Obert....on average, she probably consumes one to two bottle of champagne per day.  Jungle Camp (being done in Australia next year) does not allow any alcohol in the camp at all.  

4.  If you pay attention to France news.....strikes over gas stations going on, and there's some shortage of fuel around the country.  Some suggest one out of every three stations are in a shut-down situation. 

5.  Bakery chain in NRW has stood up and said Sunday cafe openings are now not possible.....they can't find enough people who are willing to work on Sundays.

Energy Chatter

 Last night, via Pro7 (commercial German channel), they ran a show call 'ProSieben Politik Show'.  Topic?  The energy crisis.

I'd generally say if you were a German and attempting to watch it.....your aggravation level on politics would have been enormous. 

They had a couple of political figures (Green Party, CDU, and SPD) and energy experts.  Then they had this baker come up and lay his impossible task of surviving with the prices escalating.  There was more or less nothing constructive from any of the panel, and you felt pretty crappy in how the energy crisis is being handled.

You can go and watch the show here. (in German)

If you wanted to feel some confidence....it's best not to watch the show.

How The Natural Gas 'Brake' Looks?

 Well....the draft is out today and it looks this way.....your state (does not appear to be federally run) will assume the down payment of the gas and district heating customers....once we arrive into into December. 

They say that whatever your advance payment was supposed be (appearing on warning letters in September)....will be what they pay.

Then the second step occurs...some made-up payment amount will then click into place to cover homes and small companies.....in the early spring of 2023....lasting to April 2024.

Lot of paperwork and questionable stuff involved?  Yeah.....just looking over this.....I'd shake my head on how this works.  If you were moving from one state to another in Germany?  This might be a problem.

Also, they are admitting this is not a 1-year issue, which a lot of people have long suggested.  

Where the money comes from to cover this?  Well.....taxes.

A Likely Next Move In The War

 In the past month, if you pay attention to Russian chatter and the war news, there's this odd trend building up.

First, it's not a big discussion, but right now....there are two private armies existing in Russia.  One of the top Oligarch players has his 'Wagner' army (probably 30,000 in number), and the Chechen 'boss' has his private Chechen army.  

Both individuals have made recent negative comments and critical statements about General Schoigu (the true General and head of the Russian military).  

In simple terms....they (the two private army 'generals') are angling to make Schoigu the scape-goat of the entire failed war.   

Just me saying this, but Schoigu might have come to realize that Putin's irrational behavior, and trusting nature of Wagner-Army guy and the Chechen 'boss'.....might lead to a fairly wild scenario where the regular army is tossed into a 'mixer' and Schoigu might be 'fired' or arrested for incompetence.  

A now or never move.....developing a coup and branding the two private armies (with their bosses) as the true culprits of bad planning for the war?  That's my suggestion. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  After the smoke cleared on the Lower Saxony state election yesterday....an odd event occurred with public TV.  ARD (national public TV, Channel One) did a segment with the parties.  Here was the Green Party rep and the SPD Party rep.....with the ARD moderator.  Then in some hyped-up way....the TV moderator said more or less....'Thank God that we don't end up with a SPD-CDU coalition government'.  

Yeah, it was noted in the news this morning, and more than a few people are angry about the biased nature of the moderator.

2.  I noticed some electricity analyst did the numbers for Focus....on adding a massive number of E-Cars to the German grid by 2040.  So his final conclusion?  The grid has to only upgrade to carry 9-percent more power than it generates today.  

3.  Roughly four out of ten Lower Saxony voters (registered) did not show up for the voting yesterday.  Experts tend to suggest that voter-frustration exists.

4.  The Anne Will public forum show on ARD last night (Sunday)?  Mostly a bunch of topics bundled up.  

The Lower Saxony election, electrical prices, German national 'worry', etc.

About halfway through it, I gave up.  If you don't want more stress or worry in your life....might be better to avoid forums like this.

5.  Two-million job vacancy situations exist in Germany as of October 2022 (out of 83-million in population).  A lot of this has to do with job skills being in a negative category.  

Q-and-A

 1.  Are political polls in Germany as crappy as the US polls?

Generally, no.

Public TV (both ARD and ZDF) do a decent job of monthly polling and showing decline or escalation of the various political parties, with scandals and screw-ups in the mix.  

2.  Is there hype-up going on for the World Cup games in Qatar....in roughly eight weeks?

NO.  I'd say that among soccer fans presently in Germany.....they know the game schedule and have their favorite team, but having the games around Christmas time.....was a pretty stupid decision.

3.  Is the AfD Party anti-NATO and anti-US?

Well....for the past five years, their common theme was anti-migrant and anti-immigration.  In the past six months, with the theme touching on the Russia-Ukraine war.....oddly enough, they've gone to anti-NATO/US.  Signs appear in their protest walks, but they tread lightly when talking about position taken.  This has led some Germans to suggest the party is walking toward pro-Russia positions.

4.  Is there a lot of blackout chatter going on presently in Germany?

'Fright' chatter is what I'd call it.

Virtually all of the news sources (even public TV) have talked about this and readily suggesting that 12 hours of a blackout is to be absolutely expected at some point, and a few even saying four days straight of zero power is possible.  

Realistically?  There's some cases going back to the 1970s where regions had a couple of days of blackout.  It's to say if the industry is hinting just of a worst-case scenario.  

Lower Saxony (Niedersachsen) Election Results

State election was held in Lower Saxony today.  Results:

SPD: 33-percent.

CDU: 26.6-percent.

Greens: 14-percent.

FDP: 5-percent.

AfD: 11.6-percent.

Average turn-out. 

Both the SPD and CDU lost votes over the past election, with the AfD on the gainers.

The Accompanying Russian Reservist Problems

 As Putin activated the 300,000 reservists....he's created a number of problems.

So, these are not 18-year-old Conscript type individuals....these are men in their 20s, 30s, and 40s.  They are normal Russians, with home mortgages.

A number of them have brought up that so far, they haven't seen the mechanism to safely pay their mortgage while on active duty.   In one statement, a reservist noted that his bank wanted him to stop by before he reporting to duty....to note his status.  Well....he didn't have time to do this, and there's questions if his wife can sign the papers.

Where this is going to lead onto?  I think that Putin will find some power and just excuse the payments for the duration of the guy's duty, but no one has clearly said how long the reservists will be on activation.  If you were asking me.....I think they will be around for a full year, and be swapped out for a fresh new reserve crew in October of 2023.

This to unsettle the banks?  Normally, I'd say yes....but they've seen so many problems since Feb of this year.....that nothing really surprises them. Most would probably say that they are in a massive 'bubble' and just operating at the bare minimum level of existence.  

Those reservists who don't come back?  Well....this will present a future issue if you have 25,000 of the reservists who pass-on via combat action.  These are guys who had financial obligations, job positions, and families.  

The people advising Putin....seeing the true landscape?  I doubt it.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  I noticed off Focus this AM.....British military folks have viewed imagery and reports....to now say since day one of the war....the Ukrainians have been 'given' just over 1,000 operational tanks and APCs.  Mix of 440 operational tanks and 650 armored vehicles.  

Presently, I'd say tanks are probably the least needed thing of Ukraine....they are getting plenty of support from Russia.

2.  WELT says 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be 'trained' in the EU in the coming months.  You can call it a mini-boot-camp but it appears to be approved through several nations.

3.  The German Medical Disaster Relief organization has stood up and said that the government needs to provide training on how to handle blackouts.  I kinda shake my head over the suggestion, but suspect they are trying to get the idea across that blackouts might be a regular thing (several times a week) and some of these might go longer than 24 hours.  

Disrupting bakery operations, and being a problem for medical situations?  Yeah, probably.

4.  All the railway chaos from yesterday, from the sabotage effort on two points of the German Bahn....has 'cleared' up.  Trains moving and passengers back on track.

Who was behind the sabotage effort?  Unknown.  It has to be two individuals or groups....for the two events to be carried out.

5.  The German Bundeswehr admits it has enough ammo to carry out two days of full-up war presently.  The industry points out that this is a choice of the government for the past twenty-odd years, and not just a recent thing.  

What's Set To Occur in Kherson, Ukraine This Week?

 To set the stage, Kherson is a port city (at the edge of the Black Sea and has the Dnieper River to it's SE side.  Before the war, it had 278,000 residents....more or less.

The Russians have established and had control over the region for a fair amount of time (since the beginning of the conflict).  Presently, the Ukrainians are progressing to the point where they will have control in the next week....mostly because the logistics trail has been cut to a great extent.  

How many Russian soldiers are presently there?  Most estimates go to around 10,000 to 12,000.  

Presently there are two bridges left to exit safely across the Dnieper (one footbridge and one regular bridge).  

Yesterday, it came up that ethnic Russians civilians (really Ukrainians) are worried about what may happen, and there's talk of an evacuation.  How many are left in the area presently?  Best guesses go to around 50,000 to 70,000, but that's assuming they are locals and not from the region itself.

Russian chatter?  They seem to think they need to safely get the ethnic Russians out. How would this civilian evacuation work?  Unknown, and Russia has never done something like this.  

Personally, I think when the retreat is ordered....most of the tanks will be abandoned there (lacking fuel) and no one will really support helping civilians to leave.  But I don't see city population all being much of pro-Russia and that the arrival of the Ukrainians might be more of a positive thing.  

Biggest event of the war?  Yeah, I'd rate the takeover of Kherson as being pretty massive event.  Using this event to demonstrate the tactical nuke for Russia?  Yeah, I'd take a humble guess that this might be the moment where you wanted to show your capability.  

Why The War Is Finished For The Russians

 I advocate this YouTube video on the 'winning'/'losing' of the war.  Done in the last couple of days, and correct on the Russian trends.  Russia would have to throw their entire strategy out and fight in an entirely different way.....to win in any form.

Bahn (Railway) Sabotage?

 What can be said this afternoon....two acts of sabotage occurred with rail lines in the northern quarter of Germany....halting traffic on all lines for about 3 hours.

Who?  Unknown.  Could be mafia....Russian special forces....GAZPROM employees....Ukrainians....CIA....KGB/FSB....unknown.

Two separate locations.

Federal police investigating.