Six months ago, I believed the war would never go to this level. Presently? I'd say Russia is rapidly losing equipment, and disenchantment back in Russia is growing.
I'm of the mind that within the next two months....Putin will approve the use of tactical nuke (something in the 1 kiloton range). Kill radius? About 300 yards. It'd be the type of weapon that you'd aim at a key communications facility, a railway network, or a ammo warehouse system.
By missile? No.....I think the Russians at this point are worried about how this event will go, and I think it'll be trucked in Ukraine, and placed at some site, with a timer set, and some 'hint' to come an hour later from the Kremlin.....just saying more to come if you don't appear at the table.
What happens next? I have this suspicion that the Ukraine probably has a weapon or two in their arsenal, and they might be crazy enough to launch this....against some border village in Russia....saying they might have hundreds more of these.
What happens then? The Europeans freak-out big time, and President Biden calls Putin to say this leads to something 'more'.
Living in Germany....would I be worried about fallout....from 1 single bomb of a 1 kiloton range? No.
What I would be worried about....if the Russians got real stupid and launched five or six of these into Kiev. That would reset the whole attitude in Germany, and create a problem that cannot be easily resolved.
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