Sunday, October 9, 2022

What's Set To Occur in Kherson, Ukraine This Week?

 To set the stage, Kherson is a port city (at the edge of the Black Sea and has the Dnieper River to it's SE side.  Before the war, it had 278,000 residents....more or less.

The Russians have established and had control over the region for a fair amount of time (since the beginning of the conflict).  Presently, the Ukrainians are progressing to the point where they will have control in the next week....mostly because the logistics trail has been cut to a great extent.  

How many Russian soldiers are presently there?  Most estimates go to around 10,000 to 12,000.  

Presently there are two bridges left to exit safely across the Dnieper (one footbridge and one regular bridge).  

Yesterday, it came up that ethnic Russians civilians (really Ukrainians) are worried about what may happen, and there's talk of an evacuation.  How many are left in the area presently?  Best guesses go to around 50,000 to 70,000, but that's assuming they are locals and not from the region itself.

Russian chatter?  They seem to think they need to safely get the ethnic Russians out. How would this civilian evacuation work?  Unknown, and Russia has never done something like this.  

Personally, I think when the retreat is ordered....most of the tanks will be abandoned there (lacking fuel) and no one will really support helping civilians to leave.  But I don't see city population all being much of pro-Russia and that the arrival of the Ukrainians might be more of a positive thing.  

Biggest event of the war?  Yeah, I'd rate the takeover of Kherson as being pretty massive event.  Using this event to demonstrate the tactical nuke for Russia?  Yeah, I'd take a humble guess that this might be the moment where you wanted to show your capability.  

No comments: