When Putin Finally Goes

 There are only two scenarios for the exit of Putin: (1) he dies in office, or (2) the DUMA has a wake-up call and feels uneasy about the eventual outcome of the 'special operation' (meaning they can never truly win). 

So what happens and who steps in?

First, the Russian constitution has a text which says for the moment, the Premier (currently Mikhail Mishustin) steps in.  On recognition?  Most Russians will say they've heard of the guy or seen him on TV.  He doesn't have the personality or character to really hold the job.  He's simply a filler....for days, weeks  or months.

So now we go to the four top characters for the job:

1.  Nikolai Patrushev.   He's what I could consider a super-plus-filler....meaning he could take the job for the remainder of the six-year period.  This means he'd be there until the March 2024 national presidential election.  

Low-key guy?  Yeah.  Former boss of the FSB group, and current the secretary of the Security Council of Russia.

He might toss his name in for the 2024 election.  

2.  Dmitry Medvedev.  'Friend' of Putin, and served as President when Putin had hit his max on consecutive terms.  

His plus-side?  57 years old and had the job before.  Negative?  Whatever brand Putin sold.....Medvedev sells the same brand.  

3.  Dmitry Patrushev.  He's what I would call a Russian-Bill Clinton (educated, gifted speaker, economics expert, son of a FSB 'boss', and is still in his mid-40s) type.

If you wanted someone to repackage the Russia brand and get back on some good scale with the US/Europe....then this is the only guy that meets the massive amount of requirements.

4.  Finally, I come to the odd character....Moscow's Mayor, Sergei Sobyanin.  For a dozen-odd years, he's had the job.

He did a number of things which surprised residents of Moscow.  When he walked in.....he more or less asked.....what can I do to make Moscow on equal footing to London or Berlin or Amsterdam?  The public gave him a list of hundreds of things, and he went to work.

If you left Moscow in 2000, and came back today.....it's not the same city.  It has evolved in a massive way.  The landscaping, the parks, and transportation hub rivals any European city now.

I wouldn't describe him as a Putin, but he's sold the public that changes can occur, with marginal corruption in the middle.  If you wanted a results guy.....he's it.  

I would add this observation about who steps in......neither the insider or outsider Oligarch folks will be given much of a 'vote' in this election.  If you did....I think most would want things to go back to the old ways.....with natural gas flowing into Germany, and open doors throughout Europe and the US.