31 March 2024: 11 German News Stories

 1.  Over in in Wünsdorf (about 30 minutes driving south of Berlin)....stands a former Soviet military housing complex/base.

At one point, peak of the 'cold war'....there were probably 40,000 Soviet folks (officers, conscripts, and families) that lived there.  There in 1994....they left.  

The entire base has stood there.....closed off and crumbling. 

So there's talk locally and in Berlin.....arranging some deal with investor folks to come in....do a massive renovation, and re-make the structures into something.  Cost?  It has to be into the hundreds of millions.  Condo deal?  Well....there is a train station nearby (going into Berlin)....but figure 4 miles.  It might interest some folks in remaking it.

2.  Starting 1 April....the natural gas/heating oil VAT (tax) goes from 7-percent (Covid era) back up to 19-percent.  A lot of Germans will freak out by the end of the year when they figure up their heating costs.

3.  RBB (public TV, Berlin) had an unusual story to lay out. Some development going on with a chatbot...an AI-App....where people would have some chatty voice from their smart-phone to engage them and provoke conversation. 

Yes, you'd be sitting there in the kitchen (by yourself), and 'Ingrid' (your chatty bot) would start up a conversation on Beetles tunes, the approaching summer weather, some conspiracy theory, or some cowboy western story.  You'd engage for an hour with Ingrid, then finish the coffee and run off to work.  

The fact that you could design 'Ingrid' to only certain subjects, or to be highly lustful in chatter?  Within ten years, I could see 10-percent of German society hooked-up to a Ingrid bot, and not really interested in real relationship (other than for sex). 

4.  Odd conversation taking place over in the eastern region....Märkisch-Oderland....in the Brandenburg region (near the Polish border).

There used to be a old Soviet army barracks there.  Local political conversation about taking fair amount of money, renovating and creating a “exit center” for migrants in Germany who are deemed failed at the visa application. 

5.  Not really an emergency....but there were only 379,000 births in Italy for 2023.  In case you were wondering....that's the lowest annual figure since Italy unified back in 1861.  Prospects in 2024?  No one says much but I'd guess it'll be lower than 379k.  

In case you were interested....a survey in 2023 revealed that 2,300 Italian cities/villages are in danger of being 'depopulated'.  Meaning?  Ghost-town/village status....where you have 300 homes standing but fewer than 300 occupants (total). 

6.  INSA, the polling folks, did a national poll over Germany...asking how happy folks were with the SPD-led-coalition. Well...around 73-percent said they were not happy with the performance.  63-percent said that Chancellor Scholz has not met expectations.

7.  Extra cops were out in Munich for last night's soccer game....simply words spoken over a perceived ISIS threat in the city.

8.  Focus had a piece yesterday talking over the number of Ukrainian men in Germany.  Germans suggest there are 200,000 Ukrainian men in the country....above the age of 18.

9.  Federal German cops are saying they are in the long effort to hunt down the remaining two Red Army Faction guys.  They figure the two guys are on the run, and it's to their advantage.

10.  My state of Hessen is having a long discussion over the idea of opening hunts on wolves.  No one is saying we've reached the level yet.....just that it's obvious that we are approaching the day.

So there's a problem....in that the EU has a law...you can't hunt wolves while on a particular list.  So the EU would have to open up some waiver program....to bring a authorized hunt.

11. I sat and read over a German worry for the legalization of Cannabis (1 Apr).  Apparently, some Germans now believe that Cannabis shops will attract folks from Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Austria and Switzerland.  

Yeah, this Cannabis tourism angle hasn't really been discussed much before.  

30 March 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  I put my summer tires on yesterday, for the Audi TT.  Earliest that I've ever put them on, but there's been zero snow since early December....even zero flurries.  On moderate conditions?  Just crazy.

Odd weather report last night?  The ARD folks put up the temperature map for Saturday, with a vast part of Germany getting 18 to 20 C (64 to 68 F)....color theme for the chart?  BRIGHT RED for 20 C region, which I just laughed over how they depicted the color business.  Even with 20 C....if you walk around, one out of ten Germans will be wearing a full-up winter 'parka'.  

2.  WELT did a survey....hostility brewing in Germany over the next rise in the TV-media tax....going up to 18.94 Euro a month (per home).  

Vast amount of Germans want 'reform' of ARD/ZDF (public TV).  Just on the suggestion of merging ARD/ZDF into one?  Overwhelming number of people say 'do it'.

Whether the public TV folks realize it or not....this topic has become a top ten subject for the 2025 national election. I would suspect that one of the two....will be losing their news staff.

3.  The welfare cost in Germany (Burger-geld)?  Well....it's anticipated that in 2024....it'll rise to 40-billion Euro.  CDU-CSU parties are planning the 2025 election topics to include reform of welfare.

4.  DAK health insurance folks....talking of a fair sized increase in policies in 2024...because of inflation.

5.  Starting 1 April....next round of Russian draft of conscripts starts....to be minimum of 100,000 folks drafted.  Some promise made that they won't be sent to the Ukraine, but no one really believes that.

6.  List of accepted parties for the EU election (in May) approved.  'Last Generation' activists got their environmental group listed.

Oddest of the 40-odd parties?  The 'V-Partei3', known officially as V-Partei³.  Their theme?  Change, Vegetarians and Vegans.....they support animal rights as well.

If you look at the 40-listing....at least twenty of them will get less than 5,000 votes each.  

The Last Generation odds?  Well....here's the thing....the age for voting has been set in the EU election....to 16.  So if you asked me on 'kids' voting, I might imagine that eighty percent of them will likely show up and the overwhelming number will vote 'Last Generation'....so they might actually get 5-percent of the vote.  

29 March 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1.  Next German brand to leave production in Germany?  Stihl....the chainsaw maker....seriously suggesting it's ready to leave.

2.  Outdoor experts predicting a really bad tick-season for Germany.

3.  Hamburg driver's testing folks saying now that locally....45-percent of first-time applicants for the test/license fail.

4.  Starting 1 April....VAT (sales tax) goes back to 19-percent for heating via natural gas/oil.

5. Germans and registered guests....who have been a resident for at least six months (and over age 18) will be allowed on 1 April to grow their own cannabis (up to 3 plants per adult). 

6.  Asparagus season approaching in Germany....because of the warm weather.....it is talked about to be the biggest season in decades. If you intend to buy for this holiday weekend?  Expect it to be near 20 Euro per KG.

7.  I watched a piece off N-TV news yesterday....hyping up this fear that Russian propaganda is getting into the German social media. Some belief that Russia is trying to divide German opinion.

How Do German Mail-In Ballots Work?

 Well....lets start with the fact that you have to register yourself as you move from house to house or town to town (30 days to accomplish it, or you get into a fine).  So  when a town clerk says there 2,837 people living there....it's not a 80-percent or 90-perent chance he's right....it's probably a 99.99-percent chance that he's right.

So you start off with a registration listing that is correct.

You have a note that comes to you about 6 to 8 weeks prior to the election....always on a Sunday. 

The note will say....you can vote on that Sunday,  or come by the town-hall to pick up a ballot, or ask for the form (if you are in the hospital).  

The form will come to you and it'll be in a envelop.  You open up the ballot and it'll be two envelops with it. You accomplish the ballot (putting a date on it) and put it into the colored envelop....which goes into the mailable envelop.  

It goes to town-hall, and is counted.  

Creating absentee ballots out of thin air?  No, because of the mandated registration and national ID card....that doesn't happen.

Creating fraudulent ballots?  Well...they will notice it as it comes back in....there were x-number mailed out and you can only have x-number come back in.

28 March 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus ran a piece yesterday....suggesting that by the end of summer....the Chancellor position will be 'swapped-out'.  Meaning?  Scholz will be brought into a party meeting and told that a vote has to occur within the party.  If he loses?  The party will debate over a week, and 'pick' a new person.  

Odds: Defense Minister, Pistorius.

2.  Flixbus accident....4 dead and 20-odd people wounded, near Leipzig.

3.  Chocolate inflation going on?  Well....what the business folks say is that the price of chocolate has soared 50-percent in four weeks. 

4. Chancellor Scholz talking over future political relationships....says 'no' to the SPD hooking up with the BSW Party (the newly created party).

5. Movement around Germany of mail via airplane?  It came to an end last night.....from this point on....mail moves by rail or truck.  So overnight letters getting from Hamburg to Munich.....probably comes to an end.  Supposed to be a climate-saving idea.  

Is The European Soccer Championship Under A Threat?

 Well....to the facts.  The games would start 14 June and run until 14 July.....in Germany.  All games to be held in Germany.

So the chatter started this week after the Moscow terror act.

Would I personally attend the games at this point....even if I had access to tickets?  No....probably not.

If some terror act does occur?  Well....cancellation likely occurs within 24 hours of the remaining games.

Now more than ever....there being a lot more security?  Oh yes.  

Islamic threat, or faked-up Islamic threat?  The more I look at the four guys in Moscow....I don't consider them to be of a Muslim terror group, and this was a hired-up terror act....by 'someone' (yet to be announced).

A massive act to bring down the government?  Well....that's the part that I would truly worry about.  

26 March 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  WDR piece....involving German language tests for migrants, and cheating going on.  From what they say....some folks have an advanced copy of the test, and were selling the test for 250 Euro.  

If you go figure the numbers...it's around 360k folks a year who take some portion of the test. 

As for the method of getting the test answers?  It seems like the test comes in a protective envelop, and one of the facility people in the process of opening the envelop...filmed the pages, and then laid it out in some format.

2.  The Bahn (railway folks) and the union folks....have come to mutual agreement.....so the strikes will end now.

Starting in 2029.....Bahn folks will be on a 35-hour work-week.  Cost impact?  Yet to be discussed, but I would imagine at least a couple thousand additional employees have to be hired, and the ticket prices bump up 10-percent. 

3.  There's a German government discussion going on...in the open....about what they did 'right' and 'wrong' during Covid.  Presently, I'd say the criticisms are starting to amount to a fair amount, and the 'experts' (interviewed nightly)....have lost 'status'.

4.  Various journalists are picking apart the Moscow attack (no metal detectors or private security there that evening) and suggesting that this was all staged by Putin himself.

I'm not convinced yet.....but this Muslim cleric who 'paid' the four....hasn't been readily identified.

5.  Hart Aber Fair public forum TV show topic from Monday night?  "The Citizens' Money Debate: More Pressure, More Sanctions, More Justice?"

A lot of public criticism over German welfare (Citizen's Money, or Burgergeld).  In present form to last?  I'd say as the coalition fades in 2025, and whatever comes next....the welfare program will evolve into something else. I'm not saying it gets better or anything.

Old American Arms Hotel Location in Wiesbaden

 I walked by what was the old American Arms Hotel on Frankfurter Strasse in Wiesbaden.

Yep, totally gone.  The new structure nearly done.

What's there?  Developer went to a condo/apartment situation, with underground parking....and a Tegut grocery store on the front. 

The bowling center that was across the street?  Still there.  

25 March 2024: Two German News Stories

 1.  From the weekend WELT chatter....the Linke Party (what remains) are calling for a national standard....four-day work-week.  

What they say, if you peel back the BS....this is to 'forbid stress'.  Statistically, I've never seen factual data to prove or disprove this point.  I hate to suggest it....but I suspect that half the population....if you went to a 4-day work-week....people would still come up and talk about job stress.

2.  France as of last night....has gone to high alert over terrorism.  German Interior Minister has hinted of a German alert coming shortly....over fear of ISIS.

Weird Weather From Saturday

 Yesterday afternoon....I stood by the balcony of the house (central Germany, Wiesbaden) and for about 25 minutes....hail/sleet storm.  It was around 6 C (43 F).  Just odd weather because it was short-sleeve shirt weather the day prior.

So this AM....news folks got to talk about Emsland (NW from here....near the Dutch border)....big autobahn group of accidents because of the sleet.  Maybe a dozen people banged up enough to require an ambulance. 

Early AM here....off toward the mountains north of Frankfurt....snowfall.  It won't be much but most folks haven't seen snow or snow flurries since early December.  

Trying To Make Sense Out Of The Moscow Attack

 Basically, these four attacker guys were free-lance-hired mercenary types....brought into Ukraine to fight the Russians.  At some point, some Muslim-cleric offered them more 'funding' (half now and half after the act) to get into Moscow and conduct this attack.  

After the attack, they were driving their way back to the Ukraine border (about 500 km...figure a 4-hour drive).  Whatever vehicle they had in Moscow....was the same vehicle heading toward the border.

Pure Muslim types?  Well....they would have conducted the attack to the bitter end, and then killed themselves when faced with no other options.  So, selling me on the idea of them being consumed with passion with Islam....probably won't work.  This was a cash-for-hire situation.

Did the Ukraine know of the plan?  So far, zero evidence.  If you asked me....based on chatter...the four at the end....would have made in the $45k to $50k range (all-together).  

Heading back to the Ukraine strategy?  Well....it just makes one believe it's all tied into the Ukraine-war effort, but with marginal evidence.

These guys being bright or clever?  I'm of the mind that they are mostly low IQ types and their entire focus (since leaving their homeland)....has been to make cash-money.  

The cleric side of this story?  Well.....it just begs more questions.  

24 March 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  Because of the wording of the new legalization of cannabis in Germany....the legal system has to re-open 190,000 closed cases on convictions....likely over-turning the vast number.  Amount of man-hours involved?  My humble view?  You don't even want to know....it'll likely take five years to open these and re-judge them.

2.  WELT gave a reality check review over Poland's change in gov't.  Pretty negative numbers so far.....after 100 days.

3.  Red Army Faction gal held in jail....has lawyer complain of conditions.  There is apparently a 24-hour cam-view of her (just guessing to prevent suicide).  

4.  Just odd how the legalization of Cannabis in Germany will work.  The 'shop' has to be a members-only thing....up to 10,000 members (in a town, 1 'club' per each 10k residents).  

If you do the statistical average (somewhere around 10-to-15 percent of Germans use Cannabis.....this is what the gov't 'thinks').....then a town of 285,000 could have 28 'private-clubs' or shops.  But I seriously doubt that this many clubs could survive.

5.  Some chatter off N-TV news....suggesting that the FDP Party may leave the coalition in 2024....collapsing the gov't.  BS-factor?  I give a '5'.  

I do agree, these 3 fall state elections will have a dramatic effect on timing. 

Bakery Trip This AM

 Every Saturday morning....I go to my bakery around the block, and I buy the same numbers of x-type of brotchen (10 total).

If you went back to the era 2013 to 2018....it was around 6.30 Euro for the bag.

2019, the baker's bag I buy....went up to 6.55 Euro.

2020, the bag edged up to 6.90 Euro.

2021, the bag edge up to 7.15 Euro.

2022, the bag went up to 7.50 Euro.

2023, the bag went up to 8.22 Euro.

This AM....it went to 8.55 Euro.

At the present pace, by the end of 2025....I expect the bag to be near 9.50 Euro. 

Stabilizing?  Well....I just don't see that 2013 to 2018 era coming back anytime soon.  By the time you figure energy costs, baker's staff, sales crew ladies, taxes, and flour....it's chaos.  

Shower Discussion

 

I paused over this graphic today.  Country by country....it rated showers per day by locals.

So if you did view Germany (or France), you'd notice that fewer than two-thirds shower daily.  (Brit's too).

The two countries where it seemed like 85-percent or more of folks showered daily?  Portugal and Italy.   

Back in 1978, when I first got to Germany.....this was one of the top 250 topics that came up in my first couple of weeks of orientation....that a lot of Germans were a once or  twice a week on shower routines.  The general hint was that you got off work....Germans came home and 'sponged-up' the upper half of your body,  and waited till 'shower-day' (twice a week).  At first, I thought it was a joke  but I  came to realize that the general problem I came to 'stand'....was that everyone was applying an awful lot of perfume/after-shave as they left for work.

In this solution, the problem was mixing sweat-smell with some perfume/after-shave, and you got a pretty bad scent.

A big deal?  As I age now....my sense of smell has gone to crap, and I can sit in a German train....end-of-the-day, and people with three or four days straight of zero-showers don't bother me.   

The Wandlitz Story

 About a 40-minute drive north of Berlin....you end up in a heavily wooded area near Wandlitz.  

Back in the mid-1930s (the Nazi era)....the local authority granted a land deal to build what was a former university of the “Free German Youth” (FDJ) and the house/villa of the Nazi boss of Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels.

If you stand there in the woods facing the general area today....you'd say that no one much has occupied or used the property....in thirty-odd years.  Disrepair?  It's to the stage where most agree...either you fund some massive  renovation within five years, or you just yank the whole thing down.

So this has become a top 300-discussion topic in Berlin (the city).

Presently, there is a marginal protest going on about the demolition of the structures.  Most folks don't see any purpose to be made of the university building and frankly....if you bring up the Goebbel's villa....no one wants to associate with  it.

Where things are going?  The mayor made a statement that no destruction should occur for five years....giving the public a chance to find a purpose for the university buildings and the villa.  

To keep the buildings/villa in some order....the region spends in the area of 280,000 Euro.  What that  pays for?  I would assume some facility manager.....some minor roof repair here and there...with some minor landscaping work to ensure trees don't fall onto any structure.

The idea of this going into a pot for private-use?  No....no one wants to  open up this Pandora's Box and have a pro-Nazi group acquire the villa.  Whatever happens....it has to be a city organization or federal organization that determines a purpose. 

This being in the middle of nowhere?  Yeah, it is an odd aspect.  It's not like you could ride out there on a S-Bahn/U-Bahn and hope off.

The oddest suggestion?  It was to yank down the bulk of the university buildings and put up a 4,000 apartment complex.  Berlin is short on apartments, and it made sense until you discuss how people would move back and forth to Berlin-city.  There is a station in Wandlitz itself (about 2.5 km away).  

How the FDJ University came about?  Well....the Soviets in 1946 didn't see much purpose, and released the property to become the university.  Within months after the 'wall' came down, the FDJ University became a joke and was shut-down.  

If you asked me?  There are plenty of private business colleges around Europe, and if you offered up some deal....where they could 'own' the grounds....it might make sense for a updated college to be there.  But then you bring up the funding of this....probably well over 300-million Euro, and it's not likely to occur.  

I'll make the prediction....by 2030....the whole thing will be demolished (villa and university grounds)....returning to some nature-preserve area.  

23 March 2024: Eleven German News Stories

1.  Arctic 'blast' coming through Germany this weekend....temp's dropping by 10 C.  Yesterday, it was near 17C at my house (63 F).....awful spring like.  Today?  High of 7 C (45 F).  Some snow anticipated at higher elevations.

2.  Nuke energy summit in Brussels.  37 countries signed onto a nuke energy development strategy.....not Germany.

3.  Not a end of the world event....but the German national soccer club has wrapped up it's 'friendship' with Adidas....going now to Nike.  Economics Minister even says there's something wrong with the national image if this occurs.

4.  This Red Army Faction gal captured in the past month....held around 140,000 Euro in cash (total).  More than what they hinted two weeks ago.  Her two male buddies?  Still on the loose.

5.  Big long piece on German N-Tv....talking over Putin.  A belief emerging that he needs this current chaos to reshape Russia into what he perceives as the follow-on society (after he passes).  

I won't give this idea much support.  It's just triggering a lot of young people thoughts of leaving Russia, and giving society a deep mess to handle in two or three decades.

One odd aspect also mentioned.....as many prisoners that have been released....various Russian prisons are being closed (permanently). I tend to think they aren't worried about the war ending and these guys coming back.

6.   Federal council had final say over cannabis legalization.  It passed....will be legal on 1 April.

There's words by the CDU Party boss....they are looking at options for next week....to halt this by other means.

7.  Asparagus coming early to Germany.  Lot of early spring planting (unlike any previous year)....so market will see a huge amount of delivery in the next ten days.

8.  In Bonn....German cops were called to a house....where people passing by were hearing calls for help and some hysteria going on.

Cops arrive (sounds like an hour later)....confronting the parents who answered the door.  

Chaos was their son (14) who was playing "Fortnite" on his computer, and got all hyped-up.

In the end, parents agreed to have a 'talk' with the kid.

9.  That German Bundeswehr 'leak' about the Taurus missile business?  Well....big investigation now going on, with the German Attorney General having a say if someone gets charged.

10. Thuringia state election poll done (for the fall state election).  BSW Party (new folks) now  at 15 percent.  AfD lost five point over past two months....still in the lead at 29-percent.

11. German pensions to rise by 4.5-percent in July.

Russia-Russia-Russia

 I noticed this AM....that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of 2 new ground armies, with 16 new brigades & 14 new divisions.

Now....across Europe, it's been hyped a good bit.

So some analysis.

To be honest, this was already hinted about a year ago to come.  

Then, the Russian words added to this....the two new ground army would  exist in 2024....meaning the organization, leadership and conscripts would come to exist.

A ground army?  Well...typically it'd be in the 400,000 to 500,000 range.  

Where they would get the million-plus folks?  I would imagine a bunch of the captains to Lt Col's will be papered-up and promoted into the two armies.  Then for the remaining 98-percent?  Well....just about every single guy between 18 and 30....would be yanked for service.

Collapsing the economy?  Well....yeah, that's the chief problem.  There's serious damage approaching within 18 months...where the whole nation is bogged down.

Could they identify 1-million billets (on paper) and only fill 20-percent (200,000)?  Yes, they've done 'games' like this before and it's likely that way again.

Trained-up?  Marginally....enough to put on a uniform.

Upsetting a lot of young men who had zero interest in the military?  Yeah, and if you had a chance to leave....this would be the right time.

Enough tanks, trucks, APCs and artillery for the new units.  NO....this is the number issue worth discussing.  

I would imagine most  of the tanks allocated to the two.....will be mostly stuff from the 1960s/1970s.....poorly maintained.

Facing Finland, the Baltic and Poland?  There were army posts there throughout the 'cold war'....mostly all abandoned.   My humble guess is that the generals would all chat over such-and-such post still being there (fondly remembered).....to  discover most have been torn down or burnt to the ground.

So lets get to the serious question.....will this freak out NATO, and particularly Germany?  Oh yes.

Enough to trigger bulking up on forced conscription?  I would imagine the Germans are quietly going over options and how they could entice forty-odd thousand new German youths (male and female) to join.

The realistic end-point?  I would suggest five things:

1.  On paper, 1-million billets, but only 10-percent manned by the end of 2024, and maybe 20-percent by the end of 2025.

2.  At least 1-million Russian young men opting to leave the 'motherland' by the end of 2024.

3.  Germany pushing to find another 50-billion Euro to purchase more hardware and signing 'bonuses' for young men/women to join.

4.  An awful dramatic worry that Trump will win and cease US participation in NATO.

5. A crazy belief that a full-up tank battalion (typically 40 tanks) is a threat, but in the reality of this....the Russians probably will only have 10 tanks per battalion, and all will be vintage T-72/T-64 (meaning they are 40-to-60 years old) hardware.

But in the view of exciting German public forum chatter....it's better than Covid.  

The 'Wild' Nature of Mainz

 I live across the river from Mainz, and tend to view the local news there a good bit.

Back on Monday AM....several drivers within the city limits of Mainz called the police....reporting a wild boar.  Cops looked but could not locate it.

Wednesday....AM....story story, around 5 AM (still dark).

Wednesday....PM....way after dark, more calls into the police of the city....still could not locate it.

Thursday night....using thermal imaging gear (a drone), the police and the fire department finally were able to ID the wild boar over by the Theodor Heuss Bridge. 

For reference....it's the middle bridge of the city, and absolutely mid-town area.

So there was this quick huddle....assessing people and traffic, with some city authority overseeing this....coming to the conclusion....yeah, we have to shoot the boar.

Local hunter dispatched....shot the boar.  Police say the weight was 28 kilograms (61 pounds). 

So....on the  general scale of wild boars....that's at the bottom of the adult charts. The males (at full size) get up to 200 kg.  

How it got into the mid-town area without being seen....for four days?  Well....that would be a curious thing to discuss.  On my urbanization index....1-to-10....Mainz is pretty urbanized (I'd give it a '6'), with only a couple parks where the boar might have hid out.

21 March 2024: Two German Stories

 1.  Kinda interesting....the Human Right Commissioner of the Council of Europe came to visit Germany and give a assessment.  Well.....Germany is apparently guilty of 'alleged poverty and housing shortages'.

Apparently, it peeved the Germans a bit....to be accused of this....when they spend tons of money on welfare/housing.

5.6-million Germans get welfare currently and are covered by housing.  

2. Supposed to be a vote this week...on Germany's cannabis legalization.

One interesting change....Transport Minister Wissing says that he wants to abolish the 0.0 limit for THC in road traffic. Currently, if you have any THC in your system....you lose your license.  Police aren't exactly thrilled over his position.

I should note this other odd feature of legalization.....if you are in a German jail in April....you will not have access to legal cannabis. 

What I Anticipate

 For several months, both the EU and the US have talked about the frozen Russian funds being held (over the war).  The amount?  Some quote $240-billion....some quote $300-billion.

In the last week....more talk than usual, and it seems like they are fairly close to 'taking' the frozen funds.

So on the day....this occur, I'll make the following predictions.

First, within 24 hours....in Brussels, I would expect a bridge or two to be blown up....probably like 2 AM.

Within 24 hours after that.....I expect a couple of power-substations, railway tracks and bridges to be blown in France and Germany.

Over the course of a week...more than twenty terror attacks.

Russians?  Yes, of course.  

I would offer my humble thoughts...more than a dozen teams roaming around and hitting things without much loss of life.....just to make life miserable for the governments involved.

Any of the EU countries to admit in public that it was Russians?  For at least ten days.....no.  I think they will try hard to suggest it's ISIS or Hamas.  

How to fix this problem?  You can't.  Once the frozen funds are given to Ukraine.....you have dug a pretty deep hole.

Ending it?  Well...at some point, I would anticipate that the EU drags the Ukraine in, and says....that's it....fix up a peace-treaty and get us to an end.  

Amount of damage?  I'd figure ten times the frozen money amount.  A collapse of several governments?  Well...that's another thing I wonder about....if someone wants to assume some blame.  

20 March 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  Starting in April....a new 'eco-diesel' will start up in Germany....getting rid of plain old regular diesel.  Cost factor?  No one is really sure....other than they all expect it to be at least 10 Euro-cents higher per liter.

2.  CDU Party says they have a draft plan on  'citizens-money' (welfare)....if you are offered work and you refuse....the welfare funds will be cut off.  Fair number of Germans support the idea.

3.  Odd development in Berlin (the city).  City authorities are planning a refugee 'complex' in a wooded/green area.  Yeah, to accomplish this....trees have to be cut.  Apparently, local environmentalists are furious over the matter.  Pankow district.

4.  Kinda amusing....new German kid's book out....title: “The New Bunny School”.  Written by comedian/actress Anke Engelke.  Designed for young kids.

So in this story....the fox and rabbit are 'friends'. And the story evolves around the fact that the fox has become vegan (not really possible but for the story....yeah, it happens).  The new bad guy?  The farmer. 

As you might imagine....this has gotten farmers in Germany riled up. 

5.  The German Finance Minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP Party, has a new plan on getting skilled/qualified foreign workers to come to Germany, and it'll attract a fair amount of negativity.  The idea?  A tax 'discount'.

He's not saying how much or how it would be constructed....just that if you needed x-number of employees quickly.....it could be possible to get them to move into Germany.

19 March 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus did a survey of Germans on the war-business.

Three-quarters of Germans responding....said they have no confidence in the Bundeswehr (meaning to carry out the defense of the homeland).

Roughly same number said that the gov't has to give the Bundeswehr more funding.

Two of three responded on bringing back the conscription business (the draft) as being right.

One out of three Germans responding said that they would 'stand-up' and participate in the defense of Germany.  

This is one of those topics that no one in Germany would have expected thirty years ago.

2  Some areas of Germany expecting snow this weekend.  It's been spring-like for almost eight weeks now.

3.  Syphilis numbers on a big surge in Bavaria.....not a lot of explanation on details.

4.  Some hyped-up worry that German kids are chatting in chat-rooms on extremism and far-right-wing stuff.  Teachers aggravated by this, and questions come up now over how you handle a group of 12-year-old radicals. 

5.  Just an odd lead-in story last night on ARD prime news.....Microsoft has presented plans for a massive data center....in the far NW of Germany....in what was a open-pit coal-pit.  Two data centers are planned out.  

Microsoft says they will train up to 1.2 million Germans in AI.

Based on the agreement from a decade ago to ease out of the coal business....the gov't gave the region billions of Euro to cover the clean-up and the re-training of personnel.  I suspect a lot of this money will come to Microsoft to pay for their investment in the region.

Getting coal-miners into the tech field?  This part....I'm not that sure about.

A Walk

 I spent the afternoon in the Wiesbaden shopping district.  

My secondary task while walking?  Well...counting closed establishments.  From end to end (including side-streets)....I counted around 25 empty 'fronts'.  

One major store...which used to be a two-story sports shop?  Well....it's just one floor active...the second story is empty.

A sign of the times?  Well....I think there are just fewer people with ample cash in their pocket, and they are more careful now....than five years ago.

The one oddity among new shops?  There's a Cin-a-bun-like shop that opened.  My impression...some partnership with a Turkish baker, and they painted up a new shop....bright lights, and big huge display to attract people to the front-window. 

Germans are typically NOT sugar freaks, and the US Cin-a-bun stuff....doesn't typically appeal to folks.

18 Jan 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  Somewhere on Saturday evening....in the Neukolln neighborhood of Berlin....a fight started up.  By the time that the local police arrived.....there were about 60 individuals in some form of 'combat'.  Cause?  Unknown.  

2.  Some German car dealerships are having 'talks'.  The issue?  The whole strategy with bringing E-cars out and thinking they would sell?  Gone wrong.

I suspect the dealerships are about to tell Mercedes, VW and the rest.....halt the massive manufacturing 'strategy' of E-cars, and go back to the gas/diesel car plan.  

3.  For a number of months, the Economics Minister (Habeck, Green Party) has had 'help-funding' go out for certain industries in Germany....subsidies.  Into the billions of Euro.

Well....eleven countries in the EU have sent letters into the EU and said it's illegal on what he's doing.

After reading through the pieces....appears a good bit in Sunday news commentary, I'd say they have a legit case, and Germany will have to pay some fine.  

It's amusing, without the financial help....couple hundred thousand Germans would have been put on furlough or cut.  

4.  2nd volcano 'leak' appearing a couple of miles away from the original point in Iceland.  No towns in the vicinity.

Should German Students Get A Reality Dose Over The Ukrainian War Business?

 The head of the federal gov't school business has come up in recent days to say....maybe bringing Bundeswehr soldiers to explain war...in the classroom....is wise.

I sat and pondered over this.

As a kid (rural America), we had a teacher or two who were vets out of WW II/Vietnam.  War was rarely brought up and on the rare occasions....it was pretty strongly emphasized....you just don't want to be in the middle of some jungle or French field with war going on.

At some event....probably around age 16, some Vietnam vet got into a long descriptive piece about his year, and went into graphic detail.  He had about a dozen attacks 'etched' into his mind and it was obvious that the stress of things bothered him.

In this case of the German soldiers?  The majority of them (I would guess 90-percent) would not be the kind of folks you'd want to come into a class and give a one-hour 'talk' over the war and the looming impact on Germany.  I might go and say that fewer than 200 soldiers have the mindset to lay out the 'talk' and answer the stupid questions at the end.

The fact that we are at the beginning of year three of the war?  Yeah, this is probably getting the point across that year four, and year five will come. 

Those 90-year old German soldiers from WW II? Well....you could bring them in, but then you've got to talk over Nazis.

Some students unable to handle this talk?  Oh, I would imagine more than a quarter would be disturbed by the war talk and the potential that it might one day come to Germany.

All of this being something unusual for German society?  Yeah, that's the weird  part.  A lot of Germans born after WW II....don't have the thought process to handle this, and half the nation thought that when the 'Cold War' ended.....peace was evident. 

17 Jan 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  Just an odd story from  Friday....Berlin police officers pulled some German guy over on Charlottenstrasse (mid-Berlin) who had no license plate on his E-Scooter.

An inspection occurs.  It's a modified E-scooter.

From what they can figure....it's built in some way to get up to 128 kph.  Illegal?  OH YEAH.

Problems for the 58-year-old guy?  No insurance, no license and a illegally modified E-scooter.

2.  CDU's 'boss' (Merz)...said he wants a national policy....no more than 100,000 migrants a year coming in.  

If you did the general average presently?  It's in the 200k to 300k range.  

SPD, Green voters?  No, they won't agree to that.  In Bavaria?  I would imagine 75-percent of voters would pursue this idea.

3.  The Education Minister has spoke up in Germany about the idea of having civil defense classes for German kids.  

4.  BND (the German version of the CIA) is upping a recruitment program...to bring new people in.

5.  There is some talk about a new program....where German soldiers would come into classrooms...NOT for recruitment purposes,  but to explain the war in the Ukraine. 

Just from the chatter....I would imagine that most teachers are not qualified to explain the Ukraine-Russia war, or the harsh details.  Course, if you asked me if a class of 25 German 15-year old kids could handle this....I'd say more than half should not get the lecture and could not handle the conversation.

The same group would be shocked when some history element comes up and WW II is mentioned, and they know little to nothing over the war.

6.  Odd story out of Focus....affecting the town of Heide (extreme far north of Germany). 

From the description, over the past year...a 'gang' of 14-to-18 year old Germans had formed up, and conducted threats against the residents of the town.  Cops finally stepped in....arresting several...charging them, and the court system has a conviction on a couple.

16 Mar 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1.  The German Constitutional Court asked for a law to deal with underage marriages...something that lingers from migration.

So the Justice Ministry has a draft and will pursue getting the Bundestag to pass it.  Basic wording?  If a marriage from outside of Germany was performed, and either of the two were under 16....the marriage will not be recognized.

The scenario where you had a 2010 marriage where some 12-year old girl was married to a 16-year old boy?  Well....if they enter Germany.....if the law passes...the marriage would not be recognized.  

Forcing the EU to enter and create a law themselves?  Yes, I would suggest that.

2.  German C02 emissions fell by 10-percent in 2023.  You can allow up up a bottle of Champaign tonight and celebrate.

3.  The EU congratulated Putin on winning Russia election....even though the election is not completed until Sunday.  They kinda know.....already....he can only be the winner.

4.  Martin Winterkorn, former VW CEO, is facing court action...a serious high fine because of suspicion of fraud.

5.   About ten days ago....this story and images come out of France's Macron and his 'older' wife to the US.  Just as facts....she's 70 (25 years older than Macron).  So the twist to this....some BS started up that she's trans.

I've looked over this story, and find it interesting (100-percent BS).....and wonder how this suddenly comes up out of nowhere.  The age thing? Well....back at the end of 2016.....this whole story was laid out.  I have no idea how Americans missed the that story.

6.  The EU on Friday passed a law....NOT one single tree can be cut down.....to plant a coffee 'plant'....meaning not just in Europe, but you can't even import coffee from the rest of the NON-EU world....if this is the situation.

For those who haven't noticed it....steep rise in coffee prices and spiral will continue.

7.  EU suing Greece?  Well.....yes.  The accusation?  All these floods....they say Greek communities were unprepared, and they want to make an example out of them.

15 Mar 2024: Eight German News Stories

 1.  WELT wrote a piece late yesterday (Thur) over retirement pensions in Germany.  By 2070, every third German will be a retiree, and basically....the current system WILL NOT be able cover such an environment.  

I doubt if the Bundestag wants to discuss this...but it'll be a 5-star mess to evolve.

2.  WELT also wrote a piece over young Germans looking at the university path and future employment.  There's a belief within this group....that jobs (demanding and well-paid jobs)....won't be in Germany, and that a fair number of young Germans will be exiting Germany.

3.  The Fridays-For-The-Future 'kids' believe that the news media is suppressing their 'message'/brand.  

To be honest, I suspect most of the news sources in Germany have come to realize that the public doesn't want a message from teenagers or college kids.

4.  In Osnabruck, some 15-year old German kid was chased by cops....going up to speeds of 170 kph in the city.  

I doubt if he ever gets a license.

5.  The German Constitutional Court?  Well....they have a new announcement coming up....over budgets created in the Covid period, and it might go heavily against the SPD-coalition....meaning 'gifts' they designed....will be dissolved.

6.  Italian cops caught some 103-year-old Italy lady....driving....at night....without a license.  This was apparently late at night in some town....where the lady was 'lost' and the cops approached the car to ask if she needed help.  They were nice about it....just giving her a traffic ticket, and a warning about NOT driving.  Then they drove her to her residence.  Insurance and registration weren't mentioned.

7.  N-TV piece: Since 2020....6,100 German restaurants have declared bankruptcy.  In 2023.....14,000 restaurants gave up and closed their doors.

8.  Big long report in Focus this AM....describing the reasons believed for half of all young Germans failing the drivers exam on the first round. This psychology professor says there is generally a decline in performance among young Germans. A lot of this has to do with understanding theory and coming to a conclusion (quickly).

14 March 2024: Ten German News Stories

 1.  Bus strike in my town (Wiesbaden).....yesterday, today and Friday.  Stressing the locals.

2. Focus pointed out....if you go out and have what is a traditional German breakfast at a cafe...everything with coffee....it is almost 20 Euro now.  

3.  Just curious....there are two Red Army Faction guys that the police are searching for.  From what the police discovered.....the one guy...Burkhard Garweg....before the search got 'hot'....ran a forgery workshop. Yeah, he was helping to train people on the art of forging.

4.  Interesting statistic....more E-bikes are now bought over non-battery (normal) bicycles in Germany.

5.  For 2023, VW now says it cleared 18-billion Euro PROFIT.  That's around 13-percent more than 2022

6.  N-TV did a piece yesterday talking about influencers on social media.  If the person you watch is an 'expert' on money (so they claim).....the odds are (by true experts)....that 94-percent are incompetent on money and finances.  Pretty wild discussion.  

From an American prospective with finance podcasts....I'd agree that about fifty percent are giving you crappy advice.  

7. Poland's President is telling the rest off NATO....stop calculating on a 2-percent number to devote to defense....start calculating on 3-percent.  German leadership will go nuts over that idea.

8. German weather guys talking about a vortex change....with a late cold front hitting in April (call it a Arctic blast).  I will say from New Years on....it's been an awful mild winter, and my heating bill will  probably be one-third less than normal.  I haven't put salt out on the sidewalk since late November.

9.  This whole Taurus missile discussion got dragged out in the Bundestag yesterday.  Scholz had to go and defend the position of saying 'NO' to handing the missiles to the Ukrainian army.

Just some humble analysis.....this is a bunker-buster type missile.  You wouldn't use it on bridges, tanks, or fuel depots (economically, it makes no sense to waste a million-Euro missile on small targets).  Are there that many bunkers in the eastern side of Ukraine that the Russians operate?  I just don't see the logic.  But for Scholz....his defensive position is inviting criticism by various other parties.  

10.  RTL-TV will be running a new show called 'The Golden Bachelor'.....meaning they have some German guy in his 70s....with eligible ladies 60 and over.  Most of the past shows have been fairly sensual/sexual....so it'll be interesting how this sells.

Four Things

 1.  My humble view on Tesla, the plant, and the whole E-car thing (everyone else)?

I'll go out and predict that the Tesla factory in Germany probably will go into failure mode by the end of 2025....not so much because of Elon, or the nutcase environmentalists having bad feelings over the plant....BUT because German and European consumer interest in E-cars has maxed out and headed downward.

I'll also say that the mix of environmentalists and  their action will bring up the topic if any place in Germany is 'safe' to invest big money to bring new industry in.

2.  My humble view on the 2025 federal election in Germany? 

Most of the SPD Party will meet at the end of 2024, and lay down the problem.....they can't run a successful election with Scholz.  

Some weird change will occur and the Defense Minister (Pistorius) will end up as the candidate for the election.

Some numbers will recover, but I don't see the SPD getting beyond 20-percent. CDU-CSU ends up winning.

3.  Job movement?

I'm likely to agree....one out of every ten industry jobs will leave Germany over the next three years....to Poland. Reason?  Mostly over the energy cost factor.

4.  Before the end of 2024, I think serious 'control' over German social media will occur....especially with teens.

13 March 2024: Nine German News Stories

 1.  Aldi says (the grocery operation in Germany)....they will open shortly....self-swipe stands...to lessen time waiting in the stores.

2.  The Chairman of the German Bundeswehr Association (Army union)....says there's a whole bunch of improvements that need to be made.

3.  Peter Kloeppel, head news guy for RTL commercial news....retiring in August. One of the more recognized TV news people in Germany.

4.  EU measure on enforced renovation throughout Europe?  Passed.

5.  Germans polled on the idea of a 'cap' on asylum folks per year....76-percent said 'yes'.  

6.   Four out of ten German nurses say.....they go to work when 'sick'.

7.  Head of Germany's largest power distribution network, Katherina Reiche, gave a blunt warning....there are power gaps in the grid.  

That coal phase-out plan....set to occur in 2030?  Yeah, she gave a brief talk.....she doubts that the plan is really going to occur. In this talk....she suggested a hundred-odd black-outs per year might start to be a norm....with hours of zero power being readily accepted/forced..

8.  WELT had a piece....talking over gender language, and a poll indicates that a majority of Germans don't want the idea.  Same group said that public TV (ARD/ZDF) are giving a very unbalanced view of the talk.

9.  WELT article on driving test failures.....historically in a higher trend now, with some folks failing not just on the first test, but the second, and the third. Questions arise over why.

About Hungary

 I view Twitter/X a fair amount....maybe an hour per day.  This past weekend, I came to a comment that some American had over Hungary (the country) and Victor Orban (the PM).

They tried to suggest that things were unfair in Hungary, and that people didn't have a real choice to vote some preferred candidate up....against Orban in the 2022 election there.

I contemplated this, and went back to a review of the 2022 election.  Various sources exist.

So, it's just odd.

There were eleven parties in the running against Orban's party (FIDESZ).  

DIDESZ and the partner party (KDNP) took the lead with around 52.5-percent of the national vote.

The six 'true' opposition parties? They worked hard under one umbrella....but combined as one group....they managed only to get around 37-percent of the vote. 

It is also....this opposition effort blasted it's way through Budapest....getting a majority in the city itself...with Orbin's group only getting one single neighborhood 'win'.

So where the opposition lost? Well....of the 174 districts....Orban's group won in all but three (Budapest was one of the three).

The remaining parties?  There was the 'Joker-Party'....not taking any of this serious (getting 1.7-percent of the vote nationally).  The alternate name for them?  'The Two-Tailed Dog Party'. (I kinda liked the name)

The Homeland Party?  They actually got around 5.7-percent of the national vote.  They are actually further right than Orban's party.  They don't skip over the fact....they are pro-Russia in nature.

The problem for people in disbelief?  Across the bulk of Hungary....the brand/message of the opposition folks to Orban's group....have not figured out how to sell the anti-Orban theme to regular working-class Hungarians.  Yeah....somewhat the same problem as in the US. 

I went back to Twitter to comment on this history (trying to avoid a lecture session), but I think they took it in a marginal way.....that this was something they didn't want to hear.

Having more choices?  No....that simply doesn't work.  More propaganda?  I don't see that changing much....if people don't believe it.  More TV ad's?  You just compete against beer advertising.   The fact that 1.7-percent of the public see the election as a joke?  Yeah....that says something.

If you offered the Joke-Party in the US?  You might get 5-percent of people voting that way. 

In the end....it's just another example how Twitter hypes people up and they can get all angry about something they don't understand.  

What If A Peace Treaty Was Forced On The Ukraine/Russia War?

 This is a curious scenario.

Imagine the far SE sector of Ukraine signed over (given up), and some end.

For the former pro-Russian Ukrainians who dreamed of this day?  It's a crappy landscape....most homes/structures destroyed.  Your friend....Putin?  He's broken enough of the Russian economy....that it'll be stagnant for twenty-plus years. 

So who will pay to resolve the damage in this new pro-Russia ex-Ukrainian 'state'?  Who'll pay to rebuild the apartment buildings, stores, and schools?

Will you get EU help?  No, unlikely.

China help?  No, unlikely.

So you will control a pro-Russian landscape...with the appearance of a Haiti-like government.

The Ukraine folks?  They've probably lost 200,000 young men, and a fair sum of folks who left....won't come back.  EU and US help will  come to rebuild some parts of the Ukraine.

In my scenario.....it's not a winner-loser type end.  It's just a harsh reality....a lot of burned bridges and buried soldiers.  

12 March 2024: Five German News Stories

1.  There's supposed to be a EU vote today...on new restructuring requirements. Intentions? To save energy and guard against climate issues. 

Key quote? From Focus: "The energy consumption of residential buildings is expected to fall by an average of 16 percent by 2030 and by 20 to 22 percent by 2035."

How this will translate down to each owner?  Unknown.  It would seem that you' have to have a engineer of some type to evaluate the home and produce some legal document to force you to certain conditions.  

To be legally challenged in court if passed?  Yeah, I would imagine that some folks (particularly apartment building owners) will be stressed out over the requirement, and the cost factor will double rent requirements.

2.  Survey/poll done....50-percent of Germans support a return to the 'draft' or compulsory service by young Germans.

3. Neuschwanstein castle murder case concluded.  I talked about this a year ago....American tourist duo (2 x women) were attacked at the bridge overlooking the castle....by an American guy (tourist as  well).  One of the ladies was murdered....the other thrown off the bridge but survived.

Judge read the sentence yesterday....the guy will be in German custody for the remainder of his life.  

4. National health insurance fund....did have a 2023 loss, but the projected loss of 17-billion Euro was avoided....just 1.9-billion Euro came to be the minus point.

5.  Shooting at Checkpoint Charlie location in Berlin.  44-year old German shot.  Victim died at the hospital.  Cops were required at the hospital....extended family members (Arab) had gathered.  One interesting aspect....guy was hit by 7 bullets.

11 March 2024: 3 German News Stories

 1.  Interesting piece over at Focus on the German energy grid. Worth a read.

What the bottom line is.....between the e-cars coming and the mandate of the heat-pump.....within about ten years....there's a major grid problem coming unless major changes occur. Hint?  National gov't  (whoever they are) will  be stuck with a fantastic bill and it'll be handed to tax-payers to manage.

2.  New train strike scheduled for Tuesday AM....all-day.

3..  CSU Party has stated they want a mandate that waste-water in Germany is to be tested on Cannabis....once legalized on 1 April.  

To be honest, certain metro areas of Germany presently....probably have a fair amount of THC in the water already.

Pool Caution Note

 About a decade ago....I was reading through some science chatter on public pool sanitation, and eventually came to the conclusion....just not to hang out at pools.

So I saw this today.

It's taped up to a British indoor pool.

Basically, some words over....no sex in the pool and a hint that 'things' remain in a pool for a week or so.

Odds of me ever going back to a pool?  Near zero.  

I would imagine that 50-percent of women will read over the notice, and walk back into the dressing room...leaving the facility.

10 March 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1.  Various news outlets in Germany having pieces over the idea that Trump might win, and the US might exit NATO.

If you asked me....more likely to have most all US bases closed in Europe within 2 years, and the US still participating in some regional exercise two or three times a year.  Makes more economical sense.

2.  N-TV had some piece.....US intelligence warning of some 'attack' (terror act) in Moscow.  Warning Americans there to be vigilant.

BS?  Well....New York Post says....ISIS had some attack originally talked about in NY City, and that the back-up plan has shifted to Moscow.  

3.  It appears that the ISS battery pack missed most of Germany and landed in the Atlantic.

4.  Some odd N-TV 'warning'.....coffee growers are hinting that by 2025....there might actually be a EU-wide coffee shortage....due to some new regulations being dreamed up by the EU.  

May be a lot of BS hype, but it would be funny if coffee doubled in price by 2026 due to regulations.  

5.  Finland is talking about extreme measures to prevent folks from approaching the border from the Russian side....asking for asylum.  

6.  Presently, there is a small limited window for Germans to retire at age 63 and get the pension early.  There is an effort going on....to eliminate that 'window'....with employers saying they can't afford to have people leave the work-force early.

7.  Just odd....with the Red Army Faction arrest....there was a “solidarity demonstration” announced in Berlin-Kreuzberg.  Some kind of motto used (“Stop state terrorism – solidarity with those in hiding and prisoners.” 

I suspect if you asked around Berlin....probably 20-percent of the population has a mindset not to arrest, detain or charge up the gal, or the two remaining male members. 

But in this way of thinking....if you brought RAF to Germans in the age group of 18 to 30....fewer than 5-percent (my guess) have any real knowledge of what was going on in the 1970s.

My Humble View of Russia 'War' Escalation Against Moldovia, the Baltic States and NATO

 I probably have devoted at least eight hours a month on viewing 'war' news, video, and commentary...from European/American journalists, Ukrainian PR/blogger folks, the Russians themselves and retired officers (Brit/American/German).

So five observations:

1.  The Russians (without thinking over the consequences)...have expended the vast armor (tank/APC) reserves....from what they manufactured 1990 to today.  If you view video...especially from the past year....lot of T-80s/T-72s littered on the battlefield....meaning the they were pulled from the depot.  Occasionally, I'll see a T-64...meaning tanks that are over 50 years old and with seriously less protect for the crews.  

 2.  For most folks....it doesn't matter....but the Ukrainians in the first six months of the war....went onto target fuel-tankers big-time. Most all of that asset inventory was knocked out.  So what you typically see are regular fuel trucks  (like you'd see bringing fuel to your local gas station)...drafted for field operations.  

3.  Based on commentary.....whoever was conscripted on day one of the war....probably hasn't gone home or been relieved.  If you asked me on morale...I'd assume it's pretty crappy.

4.  Both Ukraine and Russia are grabbing young guys off the street.....their vast reserves no longer exist.

5.  Putin's economic numbers are marginal after the first year concluded.  If you tried to find any trustworthily numbers?  They don't exist.  Groceries operating?  Yes.  Prices faked up?  Well....that's something that people  wonder about.

So I come to this idea of the Russians advancing.  Once they come west enough to reach the Dnipro River....without any bridges....I don't see them willing to do much more.  

Add to this advance required....France has said if you make some move toward Moldova, they would provide 'defense'.   What you'd expend from tanks/APCs to reach the Moldova border?  Most all of the older stuff (T-80s/T-72) would be gone.  So you'd march on Moldova with T-64 equipment and a  limited number of air assets?  

As poorly armed were the Ukrainians who kept Russia limited on success....the French would be a slightly different story.

As for some move into the Baltic region?  Again, with what?

The CIA laying out some civil conflict  with it's ISIS crew?  Well....I'd start to wonder if Moscow could handle some Islamic 'fake' war.

This magnificent war leading against Poland or western Europe?  With what?  Putin has wasted everything to last this far with Ukraine.

The effect on Russia at this point?  A vast number of young men are buried, or sitting there with wounds or mental issues (PTSD).  A whole generation paid a price for Putin to continue to exist.  Same for Ukraine.  

So no....I'm not buying into this going much further.  

Just a Quote

 This Cicero guy was pretty hyped-up and critical at 43 BCE.  

Seems like whatever he wrote then....applies to today. 

Odd how nothing ever changes.

9 March 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.The German train drivers' union (GDL) has said 'NO' to an invitation from the Bahn folks (railway) to negotiate again on Monday. 

What it appears like?  Some massive week-long shutdown is likely.

Customer  feelings?  I'd say two-thirds of the normal users of the Bahn are fed up.  

2.  This Red Army Faction terrorist gal....Daniela Klette....has a bit of cash hidden in her apartment.  What the  cops say?  They found around 40,000 Euro in cash, with a gold package (1.2 kilos of gold).

Yes, hidden within the couch.

3.  Frankfurt City is processing the paperwork to allow all public pools in the city to be 'top-less'.

4.   Erdogan of Turkey has said these elections here in March....will be the last that he participates in.....his political participation ends after that.

8 March 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1.  France signing a treaty to provide 'defense' to Moldovia....if Russia invades?  Yeah....pact is to be signed.

I would assume that within a month....at least two other countries will consider similar treaties with Moldovia.

If you asked me....triggering a bigger mess?  Yeah.

2.  Germany is funding 152 public projects in Peru. 

3.  Recently captured former RAF terrorist Daniela Klette was delivered to the Federal Court of Justice in Karlsruhe. Charges?  Prosecution says charges will include an explosion and attempted murder.

4.  Russian TV has a new topic....propagandist chat over which German city to hit first (Munich or Hamburg).  Germans likely to get hyped-up....asking how the defense  against rockets works.

5. German police talking over a second division soccer game between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock (for Friday evening). 

Security is being bumped up....at the Eintracht Stadium . 

Lot of chatter locally over potential for riots.

6.  German news talking over space debris....supposed to be several paths where this 'junk' will fall on Friday.  Basically....remains of a battery pack from the International Space Station.  Size? 2.5 tons.  Impact?  Considered low.

7.  Oddly, this sabotage on the electrical lines for the Tesla plant....also affected  local grocery operations....so shelves to some degree are empty.

7 March 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1. Just odd on the Red Army Faction gal caught in recent days.  Cops, after catching her....went back to survey the lease of the apartment.  Well....the occupant/owner....had no lease with the gal.   So he's in some type of legal trouble now.....you can't rent out a place without lease paperwork.

2.  Lufthansa flight attendants are the next calling for a strike...for 15-percent more pay.

3.Joschka Fischer (key member of the Green Party from 25 years ago) says now....a mistake was made in the quick dumping of compulsory military service (the German draft).

Current Defense Minister Pistorius is talking about a compulsory situation...using the Swedish model.

4.  Tesla production halt?  Because of the electrical powerline damage....it'll be at least a week before they start back to work producing.

5.  Remember that car freighter that was hauling a bunch of E-cars last year out of Hamburg, and caught on fire?  The 'Felicity Ace'?  Well...owners are suing Porsche...saying that their cars onboard are the ones that created the fire.

6.  Bahn/railway....on strike until Friday evening.

7.   German C02 storage on the agenda for the coalition gov't.  Oddly, the storage 'unit' would be under the North Sea.....or outside of Germany itself (at least this is the chatter going on).

Four Observations

 1.  The Taurus Missile?

It's been hyped-up in the news....over the discussion of the German-made missile....possibly being given to the Ukraine (against Russia).

So, some introduction.  It's air-launched....max range is about 300 miles or 500 kilometers.  Warhead? Around 1,000 lbs.

Where it'd be used?  Well....it was readily designed to be a bunker-buster....meaning that you didn't waste it on a tank, or fuel depot, or a bridge.

I keep looking at this German discussion, the layout of the war (where the Russians control) and see virtually no bunkers.  So the use of this 1-million Euro missile?  That's the odd part of the story.  If you showed me the whole map, and gave me an entire month to review things.....I doubt that I could find more than three 'targets' where the missile was appropriate and worth the effort.

Yeah, this whole discussion is BS.

2.  Russia talking about expulsions over German journalists?

There's nightly coverage on German commercial/public TV news of Russia, and they are fairly careful not to be extremely anti-Putin.  The problem is.....election is coming up, and Putin needs to show things are great.

So, I'm kinda expecting in the next two weeks....some  round-up of German TV journalists to start up.

3.  Was the Red Army Faction business almost forgotten?

Up until the last two weeks where the one gal was discovered....yeah, it was mostly a forgotten topic.  

Lot of reminders going on presently, and significant chatter over the third-generation  RAF folks....who seemed to be more trained/capable than generation 1 or 2.

4.  This electrical sabotage against the Tesla plant from yesterday?  Experts are saying several hundred million Euro will have to be spent to fix the damage caused on the electrical grid.

Vulkangruppe?  The terror 'kids'?  Well....just seems like no one much has heard of them before (at least in public news).

Them being anti-E-car?  To be honest, around Germany....probably 40-million Germans are presently anti-E-car (being pro-gas/pro-diesel).

There is a public comment that federal services have known of the group for several years and tracked them in some way.

6 March 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  Ton of snow coming in the  southern quarter of Germany...minimum of 30 centimeters.  

2.  What the authorities say....the Tesla Gigafactory in Grünheide is in a no-production situation....loss of electrical power for most of the day.

Reason?  Well...arson event...on a power pole. 

Party taking blame?  A left-wing group called the “Vulkan group.” 

Brandenburg police are onto this and conducting a full investigation.  

I should note....the arson affected smaller towns/villages around the factory, and peeved a fair number of people. 

The agenda?  The group has some elements of climate-emergency, pro-forest, and anti-industry.  I should also note....they are anti-E-car.  

Would imagine they are also anti-diesel/anti-gas car as well.  Might be pro-bicycle and pro-horse-cart....but they haven't said their feeling over that.

Just a gut-feeling....they are probably pro-walking and pro-train.  

(my humble thoughts.....after viewing the ARD video of the electrical crews assessing the tower damage....what these guys did, was awful dangerous and one of them had to have some significant amount of knowledge over electricity towers)

3.  Ministry of Justice in Germany says 'thousands' of cases of Ukrainians asking for social help money, and being in some type of scam situation....being investigated.

4.  Over around Erlangen Hospital....about an hour north of Nuremburg....the  hospital folks are checking out a local guy who apparently took around 217 vaccinations of the Covid vaccine.  They saw some mention  in the newspaper, and called the guy.

He has offered proof (paperwork) and they've checked him out.   So far, they've found no problems or issues.

They asked the guy WHY, and so far....from  what he's said....he seems obsessive/compulsive in nature. (Yeah, maybe a nutcase)

They are careful to say....you don't need that many.  The one odd aspect....he's taken 8 different types of vaccine.  

5.  This continued search for Red Army Faction guy (two)?  Well....authorities have noticed that various left groups are hampering the search and in some ways....sabotaging the search.

6.    German authorities say that they put out about 460 million Euro monthly....to 'still-unemployed' migrants. 

A Little Used Car and Bank Story

 I bank with a credit union that has establishments here on US bases in Europe.  Back in 1998....I was 'hot' for a new but used vehicle.  So I went to the credit union 'lot'.  They had six vehicles.

One of them...was a BMW 500-series...around 2 years old, with about 35k km's on it.  They wanted absolute blue-book....of which I offered 85-percent of that, of which they said 'NO'.

So I bid on a second vehicle....offering around 90-percent of their blue-book price....they accepted that.

Six months passed....I went over by the lot.  The BMW 500 series was still there.

Twelve months passed....I went over.  The car was still there.  The gal I talked to...indicated that it was now approaching 18 months on the lot.  I offered 70-percent of the blue-book.....with them declining.  

Eighteen months passed....I went over.  It was still there.  This was roughly 24 months of just sitting there.

At 24 months, I went by....yeah, it was still there.  It would make 30 months of just being parked.

At 30 months, I went by....it was gone.  No idea who bought it or what they paid.  I doubt seriously that the guy offering more than two-thirds of the blue-book price.

The negative of the vehicle?  Well...it was German-spec's....meaning that you could never take it back to the US.  Credit union loss?  Oh, I would imagine they lost around $10,000 on the vehicle.  After that episode....they changed their rules....they'd only finance US spec cars.  

Yes, I came fairly close to owning a BMW.  

This Russian 'Denazification' Comment

 The Russians uttered something to the effect 'that denazification has not been completed in Germany'.....a few days ago. 

This has triggered several German observations.  First, maybe a war-theme might erupt out of this perception (something Germany is not prepared for).  Second, Germans have spent decades in dumping down on Nazi-chatter and don't want anyone to perceive they failed. Third?  Just in a curious way....who or where are these Nazis?

If you follow German news....most of the time, when finger-pointing occurs on Nazi-stuff....the blame goes the AfD Party.  However, it's just an  odd position taken by AfD....they feel the war in the Ukraine is wasted effort, and things should just be worked out with Russia (like a treaty).  If you tried to say AfD were the Nazis....it doesn't match the positions take by AfD.

If AfD isn't the Nazis.....then who is?

Some right-wing Germans would hint that it's the left-wing folks....who project more Nazi-like behavior.

Would it work better to just identify Brown-Shirt behavior?  Well....then you'd get into Antifa demonstrations/riots, and they are definitely not right-wing.

Confusing?  Well....yeah, things don't match up to the Russian image,  or for that matter the old fashioned perception of Nazis.

The problem that the German news media hinted on for the past decade....that far-right wing types exist in Germany, and Nazis among them?  Well....the Russians probably watched these newscasts and readily believe the news hype....whether true or not.

Yeah, it's just an odd time to be around Germany....79 years after WW II,  and Nazi chatter being hyped once again.

5 March 2024: Twelve German News Stories

 1.  Russian authorities have called the German ambassador in....to explain the recorded call between two German Bundeswehr officers.

2.  Apparently, the office of German Environmental Aid (DUH) has refused to discuss around fifteen major donations from 2021. Amount?  Around 1-billion Euro.  Nothing serious but it's just odd they won't reveal where the money came from.

3.  Hunt in Berlin for the two RAF terrorist guys continues.

4. New Duden book coming out (the book that explains all German words and use).  Cost?  54 Euro.

5.  Weather-guy warning?   Well....it came up that a artic-front is expected around the 3rd week of March....bring temperatures down -5 temperatures  (C).  If it happens?  It'll be a serious shock to gardening folks....spring-like  for almost 2 months now.

6. 6 PM on Wed.....another railway strike through Thursday night.

7.  Russian Foreign Minister says something to the effect....denazification of Germany was not completed.

What that means?  Unknown.

Brit comments on Monday.....indications that Russian infiltration of German gov't is obvious.   Secret agent activity?  Well....Brit newspapers always go overboard. But if you asked me if five or six KGB guys are fully employed in Berlin and gathering intelligence?  I'd likely assume that's a true statement.

As for the Nazi talk?  This Putin  theme was what triggered the invasion of the Ukraine.   Saying Nazis exist here now?  It'd provoke a lot of chatter, with 10-percent of Germans actually believing it.

8.  Switzerland passed a law....allowing for a 13th month pension payment (the Xmas 'bonus').  This getting hyped in Germany?  OH YEAH.  Where the money would come from?  

9. Some weird attack in Ravensbug....at a StreetSide Imbis stand.  Some guy in a mask....attacks a 21-year old standing there and having lunch.....stabbing the guy in the back while having words with him.

Ambulance took the guy to the hospital....he is still alive.  Cops were called but unable to catch the attacker.  No motive so far.

10.  Sixt, the German car rental folks....are admitting that with E-cars...they are having bad luck in getting people to rent them. Their plan was to have the entire fleet by 2030...totally E-cars.  

11.  Germany's social pension program says they are preparing to flow billions of Euro...into the stock market (something they tried to avoid for decades).

12. Monday night's public TV's Hart Aber Fair public forum show topic?  "Arming instead of disarming: Does Germany really have to become ready for war?"

Yeah, it was a pretty harsh topic.

This Whole Listening In Scheme Of The Russians

 Without any doubt....the Russian KGB had guys in Germany and listened into a conversation of German Army officers.

So the general question comes up....just how much is really going on?

If you had a 'Stingray' device (like the US has)....you could set up a fake tower and intercept calls.  It'd help to know which people and which phones....to intercept.

In Berlin?  I would imagine the Russians have the capability and probably perform surveillance on a hundred-odd people. 

Even at the business level....there's probably a thousand companies and executives....being monitored.

Germans not believing this?  More or less.

So, will all of this chatter collapse the Scholz government?  I seriously doubt it.

It will be openly discussed, with some journalists reaching a point of realizing they might be on some list.

4 March 2024: Nine German News Stories

 1.  Lot of hype in Berlin....major police operations underway....searching for the two Red Army Faction guys.  Just absolute belief that the two remaining mystery guys....live in the city.

2.  WELT had a piece yesterday talking over both the German federal government and state governments....pushing back against gender language in schools, universities and administrations. 

Politically, it's hard to find any party in Germany pushing FOR gender positions presently.  

3.  I watched a piece off N-TV news....Kebab shops....usually known in the past decade as a place where you could get lunch for five Euro....are now approaching ten Euro in the price scheme.

4.  Lot of chatter from CDU/CSU Parties over the approaching legalization of Cannabis (1 April).  Some momentum building up.  It's possible that the law will be hindered/stopped in several German states.

5.  Lot of hype from state of Hessen....of syphilis cases over past year.  

6.  Interesting story from RBB (Berlin public news)....over what was believed for decades....the last wolf shot in Germany (1904).  Worth a read.  For a number of years prior....this animal was believed to be (by locals) a tiger.

7.  304 Germans officially missing from the state of the Pfalz (official police records from 2023).

8.  Bingen (Pfalz) train station called the cops.  They say around 100 tons of rails stole from the stock in their supply area.

9.  Bosch CEO says the replacement of gas/diesel cars....with E-cars, will take 35 years minimum.  

Personally, I see hydrogen cars starting to be accepted by 2030, and most Germans going that path by 2040.  E-cars....will never reach more than one-quarter of the nation.

3 March 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  Continued hype over possible espionage in Germany, by the Russians....against the German Air Force.  Would appear either their phones were tapped, or offices were bugged in some fashion.

This leak....came out of an American conference held in Germany.....where the two officers chatted over their cellphones.  

My humble guess?  Russians have some 'Stingray' technology and simply parked a van near the conference...intercepting calls....then somehow relying them back to Russia.  If true?  Well....it'll scare the crap out of the politicians how easy they might be monitored.

2.  The wife and I ate out the other night....for a dinner for two that would normally have cost near 26 Euro (2022 price)....drinks included.  2024 price?  32.50 Euro.  

You see examples of this daily now....just stopping to have a cup of coffee....inflation has become a problem.

3.  Curious piece on Focus....Chinese are trying to market a 'tiny-house' deal to Germans.....valued at 5,000 Euro.

They'd build it in China....put it on a ship, and drop it in Hamburg.  Truck would bring it to your property.

Size?  From the image...I'd say about 40 square meters.  Space-like....ultra-modern looking.  

4.  Lot of chatter going on over at Rugen Island....over a new LPG terminal.  Locals seem to think the Russians could be targeting the site.

5.  Carsten Maschmeyer is a fairly respected German business man who gave an interview....talking over the position of German business operations.  His quote? "The Americans are laughing their heads off at us"

Maschmeyer says Germany is in decline at the moment.

2 March 2024: Five German Stories

 1.   I sat and watched the German weather guys doing a chat over rainfall/snowfall since winter started.  My region (central Germany)?  Around 170-percent of what is considered 'normal'.  Bavaria....particularly around Garmisch-Partenkirchen?  It's around 35-percent of 'normal'....meaning a lot less.  It's just been an unusual weather pattern.  This weekend in Wiesbaden?  Temp on Sunday forecasted at 16 C (61 F).....absolute spring weather. 

2.  What the police say.....four people were killed in Rotenburg (Lower Saxony). One was a kid. Shooter?  German Bundeswehr soldier. After the event....he turned himself in.  Motive unknown. 

3.  Some talk out of the Ukraine from yesterday....they supposedly shot down 3 Russian SU-34 fighter/bombers.

4.  Some chatter started up....that maybe Russia has been listening into conversations within the German Air Force and the Taurus missile stuff. Enough to trigger an investigation. 

5.  You remember the German Wirecard scandal?  This was a payment business....that developed over time to being a money-laundering service.

Well....WELT came up and has said that one of the board members (Marsalek) worked in some capacity for the Russians (hinting it was state intelligence, not the mafia).  Marsalek was the COO of the company toward the end, and has literally disappeared off the face of the Earth.