I probably have devoted at least eight hours a month on viewing 'war' news, video, and commentary...from European/American journalists, Ukrainian PR/blogger folks, the Russians themselves and retired officers (Brit/American/German).
So five observations:
1. The Russians (without thinking over the consequences)...have expended the vast armor (tank/APC) reserves....from what they manufactured 1990 to today. If you view video...especially from the past year....lot of T-80s/T-72s littered on the battlefield....meaning the they were pulled from the depot. Occasionally, I'll see a T-64...meaning tanks that are over 50 years old and with seriously less protect for the crews.
2. For most folks....it doesn't matter....but the Ukrainians in the first six months of the war....went onto target fuel-tankers big-time. Most all of that asset inventory was knocked out. So what you typically see are regular fuel trucks (like you'd see bringing fuel to your local gas station)...drafted for field operations.
3. Based on commentary.....whoever was conscripted on day one of the war....probably hasn't gone home or been relieved. If you asked me on morale...I'd assume it's pretty crappy.
4. Both Ukraine and Russia are grabbing young guys off the street.....their vast reserves no longer exist.
5. Putin's economic numbers are marginal after the first year concluded. If you tried to find any trustworthily numbers? They don't exist. Groceries operating? Yes. Prices faked up? Well....that's something that people wonder about.
So I come to this idea of the Russians advancing. Once they come west enough to reach the Dnipro River....without any bridges....I don't see them willing to do much more.
Add to this advance required....France has said if you make some move toward Moldova, they would provide 'defense'. What you'd expend from tanks/APCs to reach the Moldova border? Most all of the older stuff (T-80s/T-72) would be gone. So you'd march on Moldova with T-64 equipment and a limited number of air assets?
As poorly armed were the Ukrainians who kept Russia limited on success....the French would be a slightly different story.
As for some move into the Baltic region? Again, with what?
The CIA laying out some civil conflict with it's ISIS crew? Well....I'd start to wonder if Moscow could handle some Islamic 'fake' war.
This magnificent war leading against Poland or western Europe? With what? Putin has wasted everything to last this far with Ukraine.
The effect on Russia at this point? A vast number of young men are buried, or sitting there with wounds or mental issues (PTSD). A whole generation paid a price for Putin to continue to exist. Same for Ukraine.
So no....I'm not buying into this going much further.
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