This is a curious scenario.
Imagine the far SE sector of Ukraine signed over (given up), and some end.
For the former pro-Russian Ukrainians who dreamed of this day? It's a crappy landscape....most homes/structures destroyed. Your friend....Putin? He's broken enough of the Russian economy....that it'll be stagnant for twenty-plus years.
So who will pay to resolve the damage in this new pro-Russia ex-Ukrainian 'state'? Who'll pay to rebuild the apartment buildings, stores, and schools?
Will you get EU help? No, unlikely.
China help? No, unlikely.
So you will control a pro-Russian landscape...with the appearance of a Haiti-like government.
The Ukraine folks? They've probably lost 200,000 young men, and a fair sum of folks who left....won't come back. EU and US help will come to rebuild some parts of the Ukraine.
In my scenario.....it's not a winner-loser type end. It's just a harsh reality....a lot of burned bridges and buried soldiers.
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