Thursday, November 7, 2024

Collapse of Coalition (Just Not Now)

 Last night...regular news on ARD (public TV, Channel 1) ended at 8:15 PM, and they decided to run a extra 20-min 'special' to explain the US election/Trump win....all done live.

Well...about 10 minutes into it....they side-step and announce that Linder (Finance Minister, FDP Party 'boss', and coalition member) had arrived at the Chancellor's building....meeting between him, the Chancellor and Habeck (Green Party, vice-Chancellor).

So  they continued on with the Trump stuff....actually going way past 20 minute point...interviewing a dozen experts.

For Germans, it's hard to come around to this 'win'....almost 99-percent of people expected  Harris to win.

So as we get near to 9 PM....news comes that Linder has been 'fired' (relieved) of  his job.  The Trump-chatter starts wind-down, and you realize things are heading 'south'.

For about four months, the draft budget for 2025 has occupied the Finance Ministry.  Linder has a personal limit....NO more than 3-percent of the anticipated GDP can be spent. He told this to the Chancellor in the summer...and to  Habeck.

Well....the income level of Germany dropped for  the anticipated 2025 period....so he limited the budget.  Chancellor said NO....over and over.

Last night's meeting?  Chancellor fired the Finance Minister.  What Lindner wanted?  A collapse of the gov't....new elections.  Chancellor said NO.

So the Chancellor came on live-TV....about 9:15, with prepared speech (had to be written at least a couple of days ago)....blaming Lindner for the collapse, and how all he had to do was raise taxes to get the right budget.

At the end of the speech....I commented to my German wife....did I get this wrong....he came across as a 'bratty 12-year old  kid'?  No...my wife said....you are correct.  She noted....in a recession period...the worst thing you can do is raise taxes.

So the vote of confidence?  The Chancellor  WON'T call for it until the week after Christmas....around 7 January.  He's doing this to avoid political campaigning during the Christmas season.  I sat there shaking my head.....broken gov't in place.....collapsed....no move to fix things for  about 8 weeks.

Shortly after that speech....ARD switches over to a Habeck speech (from the Green Party prospective)....live.

He's all chatty how they need more money to save the climate.....more or less....new taxes had to come, for climate-projects.

I looked at social media after that....100-percent of Germans were blasting the Chancellor, and anti-new-tax chatteer.  They want the vote of no-confidence tomorrow, and new elections within a month.

Remarkable.....how  the news was going to cover Trump's win, and it's really the biggest negative evening for the Scholz coalition in 3 years.

My observation at this point over the anticipated election?  Greens and SPD have to voice fresh new taxes....spoiling the election for themselves. Merz and the CDU/CSU?  They will soar to 36-to-38 percent on the win, with the Greens likely not going past 8-percent.  This election (when it finally collapses) will be about new taxes (to save the climate agenda).  

Just shaking my head....weird evening concluded with the news special around 10:15....going into normal 10:15 news, where you got another 45 minutes of coverage.  


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