1. Business reaction this AM of the German gov't collapse?
Harsh. They say each week of indecision....is hurting the national image, and economy.
2. Scholz gone?
Last night, ARD put up a poll listing....7 folks listed as potential Chancellor in the future. Scholz was number 7. Pistorious (SPD-Defense Minister) was number one, with Merz (CDU) as number two.
3. How does a typical schedule for a collapse go?
It's just rare....but you'd have a no-confidence vote. Then the Chancellor goes to the President and says an election (typically in 10 weeks). This would allow for a campaign period (promises to be made). Election occurs, then the winner has 6 weeks to get a party or two within the coalition (deal-making) and then the new gov't stands.
4. Merz (CDU) calling for an immediate no-confidence vote?
YES. Merz says to do it early next week.
5. Is there a reason, to linger or pause till early January for the no-confidence vote?
Some believe that the country...in the middle of Christmas season....would be harmed. Also.....most politicians will admit a 70-hour a week schedule during a campaign season, and it's hectic to do this in the holiday season.
6. Jörg Kukies (SPD) to be the new Finance Minister?
Yes. I would imagine he has a draft budget already written, and tax increases worded out already.
7. Could Germany rush-up an election?
The 16 states routinely have local and state elections, and there is ALWAYS a process. So I'd say if it was mandated to be an election in four weeks....they could run such a thing.
Are the parties in a mindset for a new election? They need to meet....get up a platform, and make some bogus promises on paper....so six to eight weeks would be the norm for them.
8. Does everyone agree with the Finance Minister's logic....within the FDP Party itself?
Well....that got brought up in Focus news this AM.....with several folks suggesting the budget was not something to collapse the gov't upon.
9. Is the German economy screwed up?
I would say since since Covid....the economy has not gotten back on track. You go and walk through a shopping district, and there are empty store-fronts. You bring up bankruptcy rates, and it's still pretty hefty. Energy prices (fuel, natural gas and electricity) are hefty.
They need some 'lift' to occur....to refocus consumers on positive matters.....Scholz is simply not the person for the job..
10. Could a no-confidence vote be forced next week?
You would have to have all CDU, CSU, FDP, AfD, BSW folks push for this. If you asked me....are there folks within the SPD who want the early election now....I'd suggest you could find five to ten. The odds of this occurring? Probably 30-percent at best.
For the record, the SPD and Greens hold 324 seats out of the 733 seats. The Linke Party still holds 28 seats and might vote with them
11. Would there be an immediate meeting of the entire SPD Party after a no-confidence vote...to dump Scholz as their candidate?
Yes, without any doubt, and Pistorious is the person figured into this strategy.
12. Could Pistorious restore confidence in the SPD Party?
He could bump up the numbers....say getting the SPD to 25-percent (presently, they are near 16-to-18 percent). But if the platform says more taxation....people won't be happy.
13. Trump-win influencing any of the situation?
If you get into January, Trump's team says a massive cut in government cost/personnel will start up. Germans, in January, would notice this idea and ask questions. It would be a odd development to figure into the scene.
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