To explain the German election in detail.....it's a race really to see who comes in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place.
Under current polling....there's no doubt that the CDU-CSU will win...probably in the 32-to-34 percent range.
Same polling says 2nd place is AfD (the right-wing guys) with 18-percent roughly.
Presently, the SPD, with Chancellor Scholz....is said to be in the 16-percent range. If they flip over to Pistorius....the belief is a 5-point gain....getting close to 21 percent.
Then you have the Greens....presently in a crappy situation....around 11-percent.
The Linke, FDP and BSW parties (at least this week) are figured to be 4-percent each....meaning NO seats and no chance to partner up.
Since we know that the CDU-CSU can't partner with the AfD.....under this win situation (Pistorius as the candidate).....there can be ONLY one single scenario for the coalition...and the SPD is it.
However, lets say that Scholz convinces the party to let him run. Presently, a CDU-CSU-SPD coalition would not meet the 50-percent requirement.....thus meaning a 3rd partner (obviously the Greens) must be included.
That waters down the CDU-CSU promises and makes for a weaker gov't.
Lets say that both the BSW and FDP manage to get 5 to 6 percent each in this scenario....each might end up as the 3rd partner instead of the Greens.
If you asked Merz of the CDU....he probably would prefer Pistorius to run and just deal with one single partner situation.
If you asked Scholz....he probably would prefer a CDU-CSU win, but with a weaker coalition....with 3 parties in this coalition.
The public stamina at present? They want change....with Scholz out of the picture. They need a finance-friendly crowd.....taking on the VW problems and ceasing the recession.
So it's just as important.....who comes in 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
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