The odds that the German SPD Party will meet....discuss options, and vote to have Pistorius as the candidate? I'd now give the odds.....100-percent chance. No one is eager to enter the election, and run Scholz as the candidate.
On how it changes numbers? The SPD presently...is sitting at 16-percent (3rd place)....behind the CDU at 33-percent and AfD at 18-percent. The Greens are at 11-percent. BSW? At 6-percent. The rest? All beneath 5-percent...so they don't 'rank'.
With Pistorius....I'd give a five-to-six point rise...mostly taking a point or two from both BSW and Greens. This worrying the BSW? If they fall beneath 5-percent....they get zero seats. So yeah, I'd be worried. I'd also be worried at the Green position....if they fell to 8-percent.
This creating a coalition.....CDU/CSU and SPD? I'd say that with confidence, and that Pistorius is given vice-Chancellor, and probably the Finance Minister job.
All of this....changing public perception and staging 2025 as a recovery year? Yes. And add to it....the Ukraine is likely to end in some fashion....with Russian natural gas turned back on by the end of 2025.
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