The current word (by Chancellor Scholz) is that the vote will occur on 15 January. If the CDU/CSU, FDP, AfD, BSW....have a say in the matter...it'll happen next week. I'm more likely to believe Scholz will hold firm, sticking to the 15th of January.
So what happens in the next nine weeks? Mostly a LOT of chatter about failures of this gov't....by the general public, and the news media. Yeah, I don't see the news media avoiding the discussion.
Criticism of Olaf Scholz? It'll double.
Criticism of the Green Party in general? It'll go up a notch or two.
As much as Scholz thinks politics won't be consumed in the Christmas season....it'll be the number one topic among Germans.
So the key folks who benefit?
1. Merz and the entire CDU/CSU....gain. As a minimum....they likely edge up to 38-percent by election day....maybe even to 40-percent.
2. BSW, with Sahra Wagenknecht? Gain. As a minimum, up into 12 percent.
3. FDP.....gain. I'd take a guess of a 6-to-8 percent situation.
As for AfD? Their big stance was anti-migrant. They would have to build a new platform and talk about the economy and taxation. I don't see them gaining much.
So the losers? Greens and SPD.
I'll add this note....immediately after the 15th of January (this no-confidence day)....I suspect the SPD Party will gather up at one site, and let Scholz know that he's out.
If Scholz were to reverse this mess and have the no-confidence vote next week....it would be an awful weird Christmas season....hyped-up political chatter, and some national vote the week prior to Christmas. Coalition-building? Through the New Year's period?
The odd thing? The longer you pause and wait....you get to a campaign period that runs along side of the Trump team effect in late-January. You wouldn't want to campaign about budgets and budget-cuts.
Me advocating for a quick election? Yeah....this is like a root-canal....you don't want to delay things.
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