Chaotic day yesterday (Thursday). Fair number of the top level of the SPD Party in Germany gathered up this week....discussed who to support, and Chancellor Scholz got the 'nod'. So the prime 'other' candidate....the Defense Minister....Pistorius....announced that he would NOT be offering his candidacy.
Public enthusiasm? Mostly went to Pistorius over the past six months. There was a public TV poll last weekend...listing the public's ranking of the top ten political figures. Number one ranking? Pistorius. Second place was Merz of the CDU. Ranking for Chancellor Scholz (SPD)? Down to number ten. Various other political figures ahead of Scholz.
Public feelings may side with Pistorius, but it's a party thing.
If you go and pull up polling presently...the SPD sits in 3rd place (around 16-to-17 percent).....behind the CDU (33-percent) and the AfD (19-percent).
If you ask me how the numbers will go over the next 10 weeks (till the election in mid-Feb)? I think the SPD will slip three points....to the 13-percent level.
Who gains the three points? Could be the Greens.....could be FDP....could be BSW, and s fair possibility that the Merz/CDU crew...might gain them.
Here's the key discussion....after the election, who does the CDU-CSU build the coalition with? With a weakened SPD....it means you need a 3rd partner. The only alternate scenario here is that Merz catches on 'fire', and the CDU-CSU surges up to around 40-percent (hasn't happened for the CDU in years).
So entirely a new political landscape existing for the election. If you were SPD-minded....you probably lost some enthusiasm by last night.
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