10 August 2023: Bavaria and Hessen hold their state elections. Presently, you can make the case that the CDU Party is locked in to win for Hessen (probably in the 30 percent range. Presently, the SPD Party is around 24-percent polling, with the Green Party near 20-percent. The general expectation is that the CDU will win and partner up with Greens....who they've been partnered with for the past five years..
Bavaria? The CSU Party is polling near 40-percent. In second place is the Green Party at 18-percent. At a low 4th place is the SPD Party...near 8-percent. Suring into 3rd place? AfD...near 10-percent.
For 2024? Three eastern Germany states....Brandenburg, Sachsen, Thüringen....slated for the fall.
It's over a year away, so polling would be questionable. Presntly, in all three states....the AfD Party looks like they will carry a minimum of 20-percent of the vote in each of the three. In Brandenburg's case....they are up near 25-percent. In Sachsen....the CDU marginally outpaces the AfD. In Thuringen? AfD probably leads all parties (minimum of 3 points).
All of this worrying folks? I would say that the news media has been unable to convince people (particularly in the eastern region) of success stories with the Greens, SPD, or CDU.
If all three of these elections went to the AfD Party? Well....no one would partner with them, and the 2nd-place winner would have to accept some pretty marginal partnership.....to bring the state governments into being.
But this would pose a problem for the 2025 national election....if such a scenario were to unfold.
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