So, if you were to look at the German state election set for Thuringina (a eastern Germany state)....there's a problem brewing.
Presently, the AfD Party leads in the polls....some suggesting in the present range of 28-to-30 percent....some suggesting it might even swing to 33-percent.
Number two? Linke Party (the last election winner)....sitting presently around 22-to-25 percent.
If the AfD were to win? You have to form a coalition....which presents appears to be zero options (none of the parties will accept this)..
The back-up normal plan? You'd take the number two winner (expected to be the Linke Party). Would they have enough partners to form a coalition? Without the CDU Party (they'd never partner up).....you are left with dismal number from the Green Party, SPD, and FDP. Even if you add the four up.....it won't cross the 50-percent point in coalition planning.
Going to the 3rd place winner? Likely to be the CDU? They could attempt partnering with the SPD, Greens and FDP.....but are unlikely to have the 50-percent number either.
It is a paradox of sorts....where an election is supposed to present a group of people to run a state government, yet in this case....can never form a 'team'.
I went back to the past 30 years (since the Wall came down) and you can't find any state government scenario where this type of mess unfolded.
People jumping off the Linke Party 'band-wagon'? Well....that's about half the whole mess laid out. You simply don't find that many people in that region....charged-up for the party.
If the Linke Party were to lose another five to ten points? Well...it creates a fairly weak 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place group.
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