At some point in 2016, a German satirist delivered a poem (not likely the type that you'd utter at recitals or fancy dress balls).....which tossed negative criticism upon Erdogan of Turkey.
Erdgoan got a bit peeved over the insults....had a chat with German lawyers, and found paragraph 103. It's a law that Germany put into effect after WW I, and was standardized after WW II to fit within the new Constitution. Paragraph 103 says that you can generally make fun of anyone (any German, any French guy, any American, or even religious leaders) BUT you can't make fun of any national leader outside of Germany. So you could ridicule Merkel and dozens of SPD members, and chat in a negative way over Bill Gates. But you could not go and write witty and critical comments over Erdogan for example (or Reagan, Thatcher, Putin, etc).
Once this German satirist got dragged into court....everyone got pepped up. It wasn't right.....at least as the public saw it.
For weeks and weeks....there's been an effort to delete paragraph 103. Yesterday, they passed the deletion. You can insult or make humor-filled wit on any world leader now.
So, naturally, you might stand there and ask.....how did this start up to be existing a hundred years ago? Well....Germans had satirists and journalists who wrote some pointed comments over Russian, French, and English leaders. This stirred up the public, and in some ways pumped up the public to be aggravated. A chance that they will repeat this episode in 2017, or in the future? Yes.
It's a funny republic. They hate hate-speech......to the point of a 50-million Euro fine if something remains on Facebook longer than 1441 minutes. They love satire and sharp wit on individuals...to the degree of helping promote a negative future relationship. It''s hard to figure where this will end up in the end.
Friday, June 2, 2017
New Mainz
When finished, 1,400 new apartments will be place, and a new population quarter for about 2,500 folks will exist. Business operations? They suggest 4,000 new jobs come into the city with this new section of town.
Some comments around Mainz suggest that a few of the apartments will be ready for occupancy before the end of the year. As for the whole project? I'd be guessing at least the spring of 2019 before the whole is signed off and done.
Before You Run Off To France
About ten days ago, the comments were first brought up, and last night.....they were uttered again. President Macron from France has said that France would work to welcome American climate scientists and work to get them into France. The term "refuge" was uttered....in a French sort of way.
The Intercept brought up the basic story.
A second 'homeland'?
Well....before you run off as an American climate scientist....maybe you want to pause and think about a few things.
First, you still have to pay taxes to the US. It's true.....2015, it was adjusted to $100,800. Anything over that amount? You will have to pay US taxes. The French folks? They will tax you. If you make between 72,000 Euro and 152,000 Euro.....the standard taxation is 41-percent. Note, that's only the tax....that's before we get to the healthcare costs (8-percent from your base-pay pocket, and your boss will pay 13-percent). So if you did get lucky and score 120,000 Euro a year job....you can figure 60,000 Euro will end up in your pocket....oh, but then Uncle Same will look at the 20,000 you made over the limit, and probably take 4,000 Euro of that as well. So, figure 56,000 Euro for the 120,000 Euro salary.
Second, if you wake up and realize all this tax stuff a year later, and get angry.....well, just dump your US citizenship and stay in France, permanently. My guess is that you might think about this.
Third, French banks lined up to do business with you and provide all the services you'd normally get as a French guy? No. Because of the IRS standards, and paperwork in involved.....most France banks will either mandate a fee because of your US situation or just say no to doing business with you. It's the same in Germany, Austria, etc.
Fourth, thinking that you are going to safe France....away from crime in America? Well....get real. Robberies and theft occur in France as well. Terrorism is something that will pop up once or twice a month with arrests or an actual act.
Fifth, think that French migrants are like Mexicans or Hondurans or Salvadorians? Well....get real. Talk to your French neighbor and get some idea of how the real world works in France.
Sixth, all these fantastic climate change jobs just sitting out there? No. Some foundations exist and they hire some gifted young graduates each year, but there's no vast market for thousands of American climate scientists. And if they did have a market....you might want to ask about the pay scale and not be shocked when regular bachelor degree situation might only get you 50,000 to 70,000 Euro a year. Go work your French tax rate, the sales tax at the stores, and the cost of an apartment. Don't act shocked.
Maybe two or three dozen American scientists will relocate into France and try to take this offer. Long-term, it's a nice offer but mostly just a French joke.
The Intercept brought up the basic story.
A second 'homeland'?
Well....before you run off as an American climate scientist....maybe you want to pause and think about a few things.
First, you still have to pay taxes to the US. It's true.....2015, it was adjusted to $100,800. Anything over that amount? You will have to pay US taxes. The French folks? They will tax you. If you make between 72,000 Euro and 152,000 Euro.....the standard taxation is 41-percent. Note, that's only the tax....that's before we get to the healthcare costs (8-percent from your base-pay pocket, and your boss will pay 13-percent). So if you did get lucky and score 120,000 Euro a year job....you can figure 60,000 Euro will end up in your pocket....oh, but then Uncle Same will look at the 20,000 you made over the limit, and probably take 4,000 Euro of that as well. So, figure 56,000 Euro for the 120,000 Euro salary.
Second, if you wake up and realize all this tax stuff a year later, and get angry.....well, just dump your US citizenship and stay in France, permanently. My guess is that you might think about this.
Third, French banks lined up to do business with you and provide all the services you'd normally get as a French guy? No. Because of the IRS standards, and paperwork in involved.....most France banks will either mandate a fee because of your US situation or just say no to doing business with you. It's the same in Germany, Austria, etc.
Fourth, thinking that you are going to safe France....away from crime in America? Well....get real. Robberies and theft occur in France as well. Terrorism is something that will pop up once or twice a month with arrests or an actual act.
Fifth, think that French migrants are like Mexicans or Hondurans or Salvadorians? Well....get real. Talk to your French neighbor and get some idea of how the real world works in France.
Sixth, all these fantastic climate change jobs just sitting out there? No. Some foundations exist and they hire some gifted young graduates each year, but there's no vast market for thousands of American climate scientists. And if they did have a market....you might want to ask about the pay scale and not be shocked when regular bachelor degree situation might only get you 50,000 to 70,000 Euro a year. Go work your French tax rate, the sales tax at the stores, and the cost of an apartment. Don't act shocked.
Maybe two or three dozen American scientists will relocate into France and try to take this offer. Long-term, it's a nice offer but mostly just a French joke.
The Supplement Discussion
For decades, various governments across the globe have been in search of the Holy Grail of ending poverty within their borders.
The newest Holy Grail over poverty? It's a EU strategy. I suspect somewhere in the 1990s....someone wrote a college thesis on this topic and it's been dusted off and given some form of life to test the idea.
The idea is to go and select some people within an economic zone which you would declare as 'poverty-stricken' or marginal working class. Then you inject a grant to that family of 400 to 525 Euro per month extra, for two years. You can do the math....this adds up to approximately 10,000 Euro approximately over a twenty-four month period.
Where does the grant money come from? A EU revenue pocket. They aren't worried about this cost....it only adds up to 13-million Euro.
Who got the funding? Three cities in Europe. Across the whole city of Helsinki, the Besos suburb of Barcelona, Spain, and Utrecht, Netherlands.
The basic idea or hoped outcome is that these three areas will come back in three years with the experiment finished, and collected data from the thousand-odd participants in this episode.
My humble thoughts?
1. Four hundred to five-hundred-and twenty-five Euro is a step up. The average family will go and buy a new TV....take a week-long holiday or vacation....have a bigger Christmas gift list than previously....and likely spend 20-percent of the money on electronic-like gadgets or equipment.
2. Some businesses in these regions will notice a slight upward trend on purchases.
3. The end-result research will determine that for this two-year period, there was a happier outcome to the family's misery and woes. Along the way, there were arguments and discontent on the priority of the use of the money from within the family.....child versus adult....mother versus father....and in a few families, the discontent or arguments created a fractured situation where one of the parents had to leave.
4. The EU will bring these results back to the table within four years and suggest that EU-wide....a 300-Euro stipend should be paid out to each single household within the EU, on top of the present marginal pay situation or welfare payment. Where will the tens of billions come from? New taxation....mostly on the wealthier members of society. Eventually, they will decide that the 300-Euro a month isn't enough for happiness, and that the 400-to-500 Euro a month is necessary.....bringing up the need for additional taxes on top of the previous upgrade of taxes.
The thing about this supplement, if you think about the temp nature in these three cities....it's only temporary. So you can't make a radical decision to use the money and leave the crappy neighborhood that you live in. Use of the money for cigarettes and booze? Well....yeah, it's best not to bring up the fact that 10 to 20 percent of this money might be for some poor choices. In some families....maybe even half of the money will go toward marijuana, smokes, or beer.
If I were a betting person....I think the supplement idea will hang around and simply become a new tax gimmick within five years. The end-result by the research team will be that money can buy happiness, and they will grin as they say this....making you question their motive.
The newest Holy Grail over poverty? It's a EU strategy. I suspect somewhere in the 1990s....someone wrote a college thesis on this topic and it's been dusted off and given some form of life to test the idea.
The idea is to go and select some people within an economic zone which you would declare as 'poverty-stricken' or marginal working class. Then you inject a grant to that family of 400 to 525 Euro per month extra, for two years. You can do the math....this adds up to approximately 10,000 Euro approximately over a twenty-four month period.
Where does the grant money come from? A EU revenue pocket. They aren't worried about this cost....it only adds up to 13-million Euro.
Who got the funding? Three cities in Europe. Across the whole city of Helsinki, the Besos suburb of Barcelona, Spain, and Utrecht, Netherlands.
The basic idea or hoped outcome is that these three areas will come back in three years with the experiment finished, and collected data from the thousand-odd participants in this episode.
My humble thoughts?
1. Four hundred to five-hundred-and twenty-five Euro is a step up. The average family will go and buy a new TV....take a week-long holiday or vacation....have a bigger Christmas gift list than previously....and likely spend 20-percent of the money on electronic-like gadgets or equipment.
2. Some businesses in these regions will notice a slight upward trend on purchases.
3. The end-result research will determine that for this two-year period, there was a happier outcome to the family's misery and woes. Along the way, there were arguments and discontent on the priority of the use of the money from within the family.....child versus adult....mother versus father....and in a few families, the discontent or arguments created a fractured situation where one of the parents had to leave.
4. The EU will bring these results back to the table within four years and suggest that EU-wide....a 300-Euro stipend should be paid out to each single household within the EU, on top of the present marginal pay situation or welfare payment. Where will the tens of billions come from? New taxation....mostly on the wealthier members of society. Eventually, they will decide that the 300-Euro a month isn't enough for happiness, and that the 400-to-500 Euro a month is necessary.....bringing up the need for additional taxes on top of the previous upgrade of taxes.
The thing about this supplement, if you think about the temp nature in these three cities....it's only temporary. So you can't make a radical decision to use the money and leave the crappy neighborhood that you live in. Use of the money for cigarettes and booze? Well....yeah, it's best not to bring up the fact that 10 to 20 percent of this money might be for some poor choices. In some families....maybe even half of the money will go toward marijuana, smokes, or beer.
If I were a betting person....I think the supplement idea will hang around and simply become a new tax gimmick within five years. The end-result by the research team will be that money can buy happiness, and they will grin as they say this....making you question their motive.
Trump and the Europeans
Somewhere along about 9PM last night....I was in the midst of watching some two-star marginal cop-murder show on German public-TV (ARD). Then across the bottom of the screen flashed some news update. Typically, this NEVER happens (maybe at best twice a year). It's usually that some terror act has occurred, the Pope has died, etc). Well....it was the announcement of Trump directing that the US is leaving the Paris Accords.
Later at 9:45PM, the news started up and it was most of an hour that they spent on this....blasting away at Trump and this terrible, terrible, terrible thing.
One gets the sense that they will seek to punish Trump and the US out of this act. I think in some way....Trump simply laid down a card on the table, which brings up the next topic of trade and NATO. Some Germans and EU players will go the next step on their own, and before the end of 2017.....I would expect Trump to announce base closures in most of Europe (note: I predicted this already before the November election of 2016). Some bases in the UK will remain. Before the end of 2020....I expect the base closures to have occurred.
The bottom line of this whole thing? There are actually several bottom lines.
1. The President isn't elected to be the wonder-kid or leader of the world. He's voted into place by fifty states (only their votes count, if you haven't figured that out). Once the jobs angle got put into place, and the losses added up if you went down this route....you'd have to be an idiot to beg for your job to be terminated. Go ask ten of your neighbors if they'd volunteer to terminate their job for the Paris Accords. You just won't find people of that level of dedication.
2. The one and only real legacy that the Obama Administration had after eight years....sadly....was this Paris Accords deal. I watched a journalist back in January try to hype up the peace brought to the Middle East (non-existent), the rebuilt relations with Russia (never occurred), the bold economic position of the US (mostly stagnant for the whole eight years), and so on. The Paris Accords were the only thing that you could agree with as being major, and now? That's gone.
3. How much European funding will the Democrats get in the summer of 2018 for the mid-term election? Tons of money will flow from various groups with new agendas. Foreign influence will be uttered and the affect of the massive election funds will be marginal. For 2020's election? Probably 200 million Euro will flow in to counter Trump and the GOP.
4. In terms of air quality....the US has cleaner air now when compared against the 1980s. There's no sign of that reversing, even with Trump's action with the Paris Accords.
5. The polar bear thing. In 2005, there were estimated to be 22,500 polar bears left on Earth. Hunting regulations which had gone into place in the 1990s in Canada and the US had changed the dynamic. Today, the statistics folks note the number to be near 28,500. If you do trend analysis....then by 2030, it'll be near 35,000 and by 2050....near 44,000. In fact, I would anticipate the topic of thinning out the numbers to start by between 2020 and 2030 because there's just too many polar bears within the region of Alaska and Canada. I sat last night and the Germans put 30 seconds of Polar Bear video on and hyped the bogus nature of more Polar Bears existing. The problem is that the numbers exist and show a long-term trend (more than a decade now) of population growth.
6. For those mayors and governors who hint that they will follow the Paris Accords....let your folks know which jobs will be terminated and where the 'green' jobs will be found to replace them. After a week-long silence on this hint....maybe you ought to have some honesty left and admit that you weren't thinking much on jobs.
7. One of the great misleading numbers is always the comparison of carbon-production of individual European countries against the entire US. About four years ago, I sat down and spend an afternoon looking up individual carbon numbers on individual US states. If you took a state like Alabama (alone) and compared against Belgium....they were almost equal. Shocking? In fact, roughly 45 of the fifty states could easily be compared against a European state. Connecticut, New York and California? No. Those three states, with their power-grid production type, and carbon output....go way beyond anything in Europe. Why? This is the big unknown. You can compare numbers but those three states are simply a mystery on this whole math problem, and part of the 'grudge' held against the US on carbon-production (which plants love, if you haven't noticed that).
I suspect Democrats are mostly gleeful over this whole anger of Europe thing and anticipate that 2020's election with a Democratic winner will help bring back the whole Paris Accords thing, and make the Europeans all happy. Maybe it would.....maybe not. Once you have to admit job losses are part of the Democratic program, it's hard to figure where your votes will come from.
Later at 9:45PM, the news started up and it was most of an hour that they spent on this....blasting away at Trump and this terrible, terrible, terrible thing.
One gets the sense that they will seek to punish Trump and the US out of this act. I think in some way....Trump simply laid down a card on the table, which brings up the next topic of trade and NATO. Some Germans and EU players will go the next step on their own, and before the end of 2017.....I would expect Trump to announce base closures in most of Europe (note: I predicted this already before the November election of 2016). Some bases in the UK will remain. Before the end of 2020....I expect the base closures to have occurred.
The bottom line of this whole thing? There are actually several bottom lines.
1. The President isn't elected to be the wonder-kid or leader of the world. He's voted into place by fifty states (only their votes count, if you haven't figured that out). Once the jobs angle got put into place, and the losses added up if you went down this route....you'd have to be an idiot to beg for your job to be terminated. Go ask ten of your neighbors if they'd volunteer to terminate their job for the Paris Accords. You just won't find people of that level of dedication.
2. The one and only real legacy that the Obama Administration had after eight years....sadly....was this Paris Accords deal. I watched a journalist back in January try to hype up the peace brought to the Middle East (non-existent), the rebuilt relations with Russia (never occurred), the bold economic position of the US (mostly stagnant for the whole eight years), and so on. The Paris Accords were the only thing that you could agree with as being major, and now? That's gone.
3. How much European funding will the Democrats get in the summer of 2018 for the mid-term election? Tons of money will flow from various groups with new agendas. Foreign influence will be uttered and the affect of the massive election funds will be marginal. For 2020's election? Probably 200 million Euro will flow in to counter Trump and the GOP.
4. In terms of air quality....the US has cleaner air now when compared against the 1980s. There's no sign of that reversing, even with Trump's action with the Paris Accords.
5. The polar bear thing. In 2005, there were estimated to be 22,500 polar bears left on Earth. Hunting regulations which had gone into place in the 1990s in Canada and the US had changed the dynamic. Today, the statistics folks note the number to be near 28,500. If you do trend analysis....then by 2030, it'll be near 35,000 and by 2050....near 44,000. In fact, I would anticipate the topic of thinning out the numbers to start by between 2020 and 2030 because there's just too many polar bears within the region of Alaska and Canada. I sat last night and the Germans put 30 seconds of Polar Bear video on and hyped the bogus nature of more Polar Bears existing. The problem is that the numbers exist and show a long-term trend (more than a decade now) of population growth.
6. For those mayors and governors who hint that they will follow the Paris Accords....let your folks know which jobs will be terminated and where the 'green' jobs will be found to replace them. After a week-long silence on this hint....maybe you ought to have some honesty left and admit that you weren't thinking much on jobs.
7. One of the great misleading numbers is always the comparison of carbon-production of individual European countries against the entire US. About four years ago, I sat down and spend an afternoon looking up individual carbon numbers on individual US states. If you took a state like Alabama (alone) and compared against Belgium....they were almost equal. Shocking? In fact, roughly 45 of the fifty states could easily be compared against a European state. Connecticut, New York and California? No. Those three states, with their power-grid production type, and carbon output....go way beyond anything in Europe. Why? This is the big unknown. You can compare numbers but those three states are simply a mystery on this whole math problem, and part of the 'grudge' held against the US on carbon-production (which plants love, if you haven't noticed that).
I suspect Democrats are mostly gleeful over this whole anger of Europe thing and anticipate that 2020's election with a Democratic winner will help bring back the whole Paris Accords thing, and make the Europeans all happy. Maybe it would.....maybe not. Once you have to admit job losses are part of the Democratic program, it's hard to figure where your votes will come from.
Thursday, June 1, 2017
The 'Lessons Learned' Story
One of the things which I tended to notice during my military years was the 'lessons learned' phase that came after a big operation or an exercise. 'Lessons learned' was usually a tool that made you go back and ask a lot of stupid questions, draw upon the procedures, and fix what was broke. Sometimes, in a few cases.....you knew that the system was broke before you even went into the lessons learned phase.....and knew that it was practically impossible to fix the problem.
Today, via BR (regional public network to Bavaria) the journalists chatted about this new lessons learned moment.
BamF is the German agency which handles immigration and visa approval. Whatever they decide....is the final word, unless the court wants to step in and be the final approval point.
Well....BamF decided to go back and pull out the applications to a large group and look over the results of their approval.
Roughly 45-percent of Afghanistan applications had insufficient documentation in the folder....yet were approved.
Roughly 20-percent of the Syrians....had insufficient documentation.
They went over 2,000 decisions and found various issues.
The system was never made to handle mass migration or immigration. If you went back to anyone who worked with BamF over the past thirty years....I suspect they'd all grin and admit that they were built and designed to handle around 250,000 applications a year, and it was strongly dependent on the applicants to provide precise ID information and consulate staff in various countries would do the right homework to ensure paperwork met the requirements.
No one at any point from the Berlin leadership side ever sat there and could demonstrate some understanding of the process, the extended waiting period, the failure of bad approvals, the increase in crime, the cost of the process, or the end-result. From an outsider's perceptive....this was a slow-motion train that was moving up a track, with potential for disaster...yet as much as the audience sat and surveyed this....the attitude was what I'd seen before in lessons learned stages....where things were just deemed unfixable....before and after the episode. Even today, as much as you might seem to criticize or find fault....there are very few ways to fix or improve the situation.
Today, via BR (regional public network to Bavaria) the journalists chatted about this new lessons learned moment.
BamF is the German agency which handles immigration and visa approval. Whatever they decide....is the final word, unless the court wants to step in and be the final approval point.
Well....BamF decided to go back and pull out the applications to a large group and look over the results of their approval.
Roughly 45-percent of Afghanistan applications had insufficient documentation in the folder....yet were approved.
Roughly 20-percent of the Syrians....had insufficient documentation.
They went over 2,000 decisions and found various issues.
The system was never made to handle mass migration or immigration. If you went back to anyone who worked with BamF over the past thirty years....I suspect they'd all grin and admit that they were built and designed to handle around 250,000 applications a year, and it was strongly dependent on the applicants to provide precise ID information and consulate staff in various countries would do the right homework to ensure paperwork met the requirements.
No one at any point from the Berlin leadership side ever sat there and could demonstrate some understanding of the process, the extended waiting period, the failure of bad approvals, the increase in crime, the cost of the process, or the end-result. From an outsider's perceptive....this was a slow-motion train that was moving up a track, with potential for disaster...yet as much as the audience sat and surveyed this....the attitude was what I'd seen before in lessons learned stages....where things were just deemed unfixable....before and after the episode. Even today, as much as you might seem to criticize or find fault....there are very few ways to fix or improve the situation.
The Two Naive Groups in Germany
This week, a riot broke out at a 'junior-college' in Nuremberg. What can be said is that the local cops were issued a pick-up and deport order by the court. They didn't do a lot of planning or thinking....just receiving the order and then going in a fair-sized group (probably more than ten in the original plan, and probably another thirty arriving later after the riot started). So they arrive at this 'junior-college' to pick up a failed Afghani applicant, who was attending classes there. Nothing much in the German news media talks about the guy, his application, or the reason for failure.
What the story basically hinges on now is the reaction at the school. These are mostly 16-to-20 year old kids and they ganged up on the cops....to prevent them from apprehending the Afghan guy. You can view the tape, but they went out of their way to hinder the apprehension. Several were arrested, and based on the newer laws put into effect in the last year....they will have to go in front of a judge who can probably put them into jail for several months. My guess is that each will have go beg for some lenient form of help, and be put on several years of probation to make the situation go away.
You can view the tape here.....rough two minutes loaded up on YouTube.
So, here is the discussion and the two naive people who sit in the midst of this.
When all this open-door business started in Germany in 2013....there was a requirement for paperwork to be filled out and applicants (anyone who walked across the border) to be reviewed. You had to fill it out....you had to sign it....you had to agree that if you failed the visa application, then you'd be deported later.
Lots of people thought this was a guaranteed deal. The paperwork was just a formal thing. Well.....here in the past year....the paperwork and application process have hit the maximum point, and well over 200,000 individuals today in Germany have a process letter which says they failed the application. Some are challenging it....some have simply disappeared into the German landscape.
Behind all this friendly German open-door business....was a process. If you had a craft, a degree, or something to show for a threat in your home-land.....you got a pass-entry to stay. If you didn't fit those profiles....you got a deport note somewhere down the line.
Unfair? A Syrian or Iraqi has probably three times the likelihood of getting a permanent visa...compared to a Afghani. If you compared the government's own numbers....the Syrian has a 90-percent chance....compared to a Tunisian guy who might have five to ten percent chance. Did the Germans tell them that when they walked in the front-door? It had to be mentioned that a process existed and failed applicants would be deported.
So, I come to the second naive group.....the pro-asylum and pro-immigration Germans. They also felt that it was near a 100-percent approval process. Never once did they face reality. Social-justice warriors are now all frustrated and angry that failed applicants are actually removed from Germany.
Why did the Afghan guy fail? Unknown. Maybe he gave false information. Maybe it's a false ID. Maybe he's got a crime or two that he left out of the submission package. Maybe he's got some jihad-friends. The things is.....you just don't know. Maybe it's just the fact that he has no skill, craft, or degree to offer Germany.
What gets me the most about this is the cops on this deportation order. They could have picked a location between the school and the apartment that he lives in, and just grabbed him on an open street. Instead, they picked the school itself and almost wanted a confrontation to occur. In terms of planning....I give them a zero on the method used.
If one looks back over the past three years and all the incompetence demonstrated within the government (from Berlin down)....it has to amaze people that bad decisions simply open the next door for bad reactions, and continued bad decisions to follow.
What the story basically hinges on now is the reaction at the school. These are mostly 16-to-20 year old kids and they ganged up on the cops....to prevent them from apprehending the Afghan guy. You can view the tape, but they went out of their way to hinder the apprehension. Several were arrested, and based on the newer laws put into effect in the last year....they will have to go in front of a judge who can probably put them into jail for several months. My guess is that each will have go beg for some lenient form of help, and be put on several years of probation to make the situation go away.
So, here is the discussion and the two naive people who sit in the midst of this.
When all this open-door business started in Germany in 2013....there was a requirement for paperwork to be filled out and applicants (anyone who walked across the border) to be reviewed. You had to fill it out....you had to sign it....you had to agree that if you failed the visa application, then you'd be deported later.
Lots of people thought this was a guaranteed deal. The paperwork was just a formal thing. Well.....here in the past year....the paperwork and application process have hit the maximum point, and well over 200,000 individuals today in Germany have a process letter which says they failed the application. Some are challenging it....some have simply disappeared into the German landscape.
Behind all this friendly German open-door business....was a process. If you had a craft, a degree, or something to show for a threat in your home-land.....you got a pass-entry to stay. If you didn't fit those profiles....you got a deport note somewhere down the line.
Unfair? A Syrian or Iraqi has probably three times the likelihood of getting a permanent visa...compared to a Afghani. If you compared the government's own numbers....the Syrian has a 90-percent chance....compared to a Tunisian guy who might have five to ten percent chance. Did the Germans tell them that when they walked in the front-door? It had to be mentioned that a process existed and failed applicants would be deported.
So, I come to the second naive group.....the pro-asylum and pro-immigration Germans. They also felt that it was near a 100-percent approval process. Never once did they face reality. Social-justice warriors are now all frustrated and angry that failed applicants are actually removed from Germany.
Why did the Afghan guy fail? Unknown. Maybe he gave false information. Maybe it's a false ID. Maybe he's got a crime or two that he left out of the submission package. Maybe he's got some jihad-friends. The things is.....you just don't know. Maybe it's just the fact that he has no skill, craft, or degree to offer Germany.
What gets me the most about this is the cops on this deportation order. They could have picked a location between the school and the apartment that he lives in, and just grabbed him on an open street. Instead, they picked the school itself and almost wanted a confrontation to occur. In terms of planning....I give them a zero on the method used.
If one looks back over the past three years and all the incompetence demonstrated within the government (from Berlin down)....it has to amaze people that bad decisions simply open the next door for bad reactions, and continued bad decisions to follow.
Facebook and Germany
Facebook is looking straight at the new German law. It says....if they notify Facebook to remove an item because of 'hate-writing', then within one single day....it must be removed. Otherwise, it's five-million on a fine to the head of Facebook in Germany, and 50-million Euro of a fine on Facebook as a company.
It's been drafted and passed through the Bundestag. It's at a stage to be implemented....meaning one single step is left.
My guess is that within a hundred days....some scenario will unfold where a massive number of deletions occur, and some legal challenge comes up over the government ordering Facebook to halt the practice. Facebook will screw up on one deletion and face the fine business, and then some customer will challenge Facebook over why they deleted their comment....taking them to court.
I think four things will occur out of this:
1. I suspect at least 20,000 Germans will unhook from Facebook-Germany, and go to some land (maybe Facebook-Albania, or Facebook-UK, or Facebook-Poland).
2. I suspect a new social media invention to occur....way beyond the authority or control of the German government.
3. I suspect that the first 50-million Euro fine to create a firestorm with social media platforms, and a suggestion that either a monthly fee for membership with Germans has to occur or just to deny Germans the use of social media because it's too 'wicked' or dangerous.
4. Public sentiment on this will shift and the government will be accused of hate-hate-talk (some new term likely to be invented).
Here's the blunt side of this. I think there are societies and cultures which just can't handle social media. It's like that Star Trek episode where some society has acquired some technology that is light-years ahead of their mental capability, and I think Germany is in that position today. The German intellectuals are persuaded that you can micro-manage a society and prevent hateful things from being discussed in public. Fine, but in the end, you will mostly just chase the cows from one end of the field....to the other end.
Last year, the Germans got all upset and hyped-up over Dark-Net. They discovered you can sell guns and narcotics via Dark-Net. Shocking? For months and months, the cops kinda hinted to the Bundestag that this was a problem. It's not till the news folks and journalists got hyped up.....that some major efforts were put up to go against Dark-Net. Effect so far? Dark-Net still exists....guns and narcotics are still sold....and life goes on.
Facebook has never had a problem like this. It's like constant hour-by-hour threat where you could lose 50-million Euro for not deleting fast enough, or face some court action by a customer....sued for 50-million Euro for deleting something that was not defined as 'hate'. Either way, they will lose in the end.
It's been drafted and passed through the Bundestag. It's at a stage to be implemented....meaning one single step is left.
My guess is that within a hundred days....some scenario will unfold where a massive number of deletions occur, and some legal challenge comes up over the government ordering Facebook to halt the practice. Facebook will screw up on one deletion and face the fine business, and then some customer will challenge Facebook over why they deleted their comment....taking them to court.
I think four things will occur out of this:
1. I suspect at least 20,000 Germans will unhook from Facebook-Germany, and go to some land (maybe Facebook-Albania, or Facebook-UK, or Facebook-Poland).
2. I suspect a new social media invention to occur....way beyond the authority or control of the German government.
3. I suspect that the first 50-million Euro fine to create a firestorm with social media platforms, and a suggestion that either a monthly fee for membership with Germans has to occur or just to deny Germans the use of social media because it's too 'wicked' or dangerous.
4. Public sentiment on this will shift and the government will be accused of hate-hate-talk (some new term likely to be invented).
Here's the blunt side of this. I think there are societies and cultures which just can't handle social media. It's like that Star Trek episode where some society has acquired some technology that is light-years ahead of their mental capability, and I think Germany is in that position today. The German intellectuals are persuaded that you can micro-manage a society and prevent hateful things from being discussed in public. Fine, but in the end, you will mostly just chase the cows from one end of the field....to the other end.
Last year, the Germans got all upset and hyped-up over Dark-Net. They discovered you can sell guns and narcotics via Dark-Net. Shocking? For months and months, the cops kinda hinted to the Bundestag that this was a problem. It's not till the news folks and journalists got hyped up.....that some major efforts were put up to go against Dark-Net. Effect so far? Dark-Net still exists....guns and narcotics are still sold....and life goes on.
Facebook has never had a problem like this. It's like constant hour-by-hour threat where you could lose 50-million Euro for not deleting fast enough, or face some court action by a customer....sued for 50-million Euro for deleting something that was not defined as 'hate'. Either way, they will lose in the end.
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