Monday, March 12, 2018

Talking over Poverty and Hartz IV

Yesterday via one of the public networks....one of the CDU guys (Jens Spahn) came up and delivered a hard-hitting statement that the welfare supplement (Hartz IV) and payment.....was more than enough to help people survive.  This talk for the last year or two of so many poverty-stricken Germans...in his mind...was not accurate (so says Jens).

Immediately the opposition political folks on this group defended the idea that poverty was everywhere and the Hartz IV payment was worthless.

So, lets pull out the amount.....at least from mid-2017, the amount was 404 Euro for one single adult....across all of Germany.

The partner in the family?  They would get 364 Euro.

The kid younger than 6 years old, would get 237 Euro.

The kid between 6 and 13?  270 Euro.

The kid between 14 and 17 years old?  306 Euro.

The older kids, still living at home?  324 Euro.

So you do the math.....a couple on welfare, with two kids?  Roughly 1,250 Euro a month.  That's around $1,500 a month in US currency.  On top of that, is the payment for the rent/utilities. 

An older couple?  They'd be getting around 770 Euro.  In their case, I might suggest that it's close to the marginal point. 

The problem is that fair number of Germans shop in a frugal way....looking for discount deals, and hyped up on saving on costs.  My German wife, in an average year of grocery shopping....probably saves near 1,200 Euro on discounts....by the time you add up drinks, beverages, beer, meat, etc.....on sale.  My wife reviews at least six different grocery listings each Saturday, and comes to some listing, which has 99-percent of the items to be purchased.....on sale. 

I expect some political battle to start up shortly and a bunch of folks try to establish the reality over poverty and why people identify themselves in this pattern. 

From Sunday Night

Last night was the live German public forum on ARD (Channel One) ....at 9:45 PM.....the Anne Will Show.

Topic?  Well....they dragged in four well known German political figures (left and right), and a journalist.  Most people were expecting this to be a wide range of political topics, and what the moderator (Anne Will) did....was center about 80-percent of the show on politics in Berlin and immigration.

Yeah, it was a bit of a shocker.  She connected the dots on about a dozen situations....all leading back to migration.

Oddly from this group of guests....no one from the AfD Party (the anti-immigration party).  The five all had chances to lay out some vision, but in the end....it sounded more like excuses or a dream-like future.

The facial expressions?  Well....if you muted the show and just looked at reactionary faces, that was entertainment for the most part. 

Any kind of positive traction by the end of the public forum?  I'm an outsider and I would simply judge the hour-long forum as simply 'talk', and not much else.  The fact that you could throw twenty talk-subjects up on a white-board and discover a connection leading back to the migration crisis in Germany for at least half of the suggested topics?  Well....that is rather bothersome.  That generally leads people back to the 2015/2016 topic of management by the five ruling parties of the Bundestag and their lack of concern over where this was going to lead the nation. 

Frankly, you might be better off on Sunday nights watching the Kitchen Impossible show if you just wanted entertainment. 

Explaining the Hartz IV Program

About a decade after the reunification of Germany....bringing DDR into the Federal Republic....the national government decided it was time to rebuild the national welfare program.  A number of folks had spent years studying the various problems and a collection of projects came out of this effort....all to refer to 'Hartz' (Heart) as the project title.

So Hartz I came around to exist at the end of 2002.  It promoted three things: (1) vocational training was hyped up and given a new status in life, (2) temp agencies and temp work was 'blessed-off' as being part of the future of Germany, and (3) temp employees had to be given the same basic rights, pay-scale, time-off, etc....as regular employees.

Hartz II came into existence at the same time.  It promoted two things: (1) mini-jobs were now legal, and (2) all government employment offices (in each city) were rebranded as 'Job-Centers'.  The rebranding episode meant that money could be spent to 'beautify' the centers and make them appear modern.  Most Germans would say that the marginalized job employment offices, now a Job-Center....was barely working and this change was cosmetic in nature.  The mini-job thing?  It created a part-time job situation where you paid no taxes.  The problem here was that you were limited to 400 Euro a month, and a general maximum of 15 hours per week.  Germans are mostly split on the mini-job thing.  They agree....you need something like this, but in several ways....it's been misused. 

Hartz III?  It came along a year later, at the end of 2003.  It forced a structural change on the Job-Center empire and some rules brought the agency into the modern era.  Germans are mostly divided on the success or impact of Hartz III. 

Finally, you come to Hartz IV on 24 December of 2003.  Social assistance and unemployment assistance were merged into one single program.  A standard was established for 2004....each person on welfare would get approximately 295 Euro per month.  This was on top of your rent.  Every year, the amount is reviewed and increased as necessary. Almost immediately, everyone blasted the amount and argued that this would simply not be enough.  The government folks went out and demonstrated that if you shopped in a frugal way....that each person could survive at this rate.

Kids in this Hartz IV situation?  They were originally classified as 65-percent adult....so that's the amount of the 295 Euro (2004 numbers) that they were dished out.  A year or two later.....the government even went to adjust the percentage down to 60-percent.

The last part of Hartz IV was the limit on unemployment money to 18 months.  After the 18th month, if you were still unemployed.....you went on welfare. 

What did Hartz IV really do in the end?  The budget folks had projected out these massive problems coming in a decade or two prior to Hartz IV.....with a fantastic amount of money required to carry the welfare program of Germany.  So in some ways....they rebuilt the system to prevent major financial issues....and in another way built it to convince you to look for work, and get off welfare.  Welfare wasn't supposed to be a life-goal.

Since 2003?  Fifteen years have passed, and you can generally say these three things:

1.  A large number of Germans found ways to leave welfare and get employment.  The negative here is that they marginally make more now than they did while on Hartz IV.  They rest now on the edge of poverty....working forty hours a week.

2.  A whole generation of kids have grown up under the shadow of Hartz IV and it's dramatic change on their lives.  Some survived and made their lives better.  Some are handcuffed to the ghetto-like lifestyle and live marginal lives even as an adult.

3.  A large segment of society believes there is some unfairness to Hartz IV but they are divided on how to proceed.  What if you doubled the monthly money?  Would it really change things?  Would it be better to allocate more money into job programs or training programs....getting totally off Hartz IV?

So as you sit and watch the various chat forums and Germans argue over this....it really comes down to your level of compassion and reality.  The Germans would like to fix this....but the solution is not simple. 

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Bannon in Europe

"Let them call you racist. Let them call you xenophobes. Let them call you nativists.  Wear it as a badge of honor. Because every day, we get stronger and they get weaker.”

-- Steve Bannon to a group of French National Front Party members over the weekend

Over the past two weeks, Bannon has been going around Europe and making a few appearances.  On the whole, I would say that the public news folks (the intellectual crowd) are a bit shocked that Bannon does these appearances and people stand to listen.

Most folks thought that when Bannon left the White House job and Breitbart position....he'd just drift off and not be some nuisance.  Well....they were wrong.

If this had happened in 2016, it would have stirred up a mess in both France and Germany, because of their approaching elections.  At this point?  It might have a strong effect upon the EU election in the summer of 2019. 

Over the past decade, the journalists (it didn't matter if we were talking French, British, or German) resorted to the term 'xenophobe' to put some fear onto right-wing activists.  If the general group simply took the attitude that this was a badge of honor....it'd basically disarm the news media and put them into an odd corner. 

Eventually, someone might even reach the point of asking if there is an actual phobia existing, when using the term xenophobia. 

The 12-Billion Euro Solution to a Major Problem

If you watch German news daily....view the various topics on public chat forums on ZDF/ARD (the two public networks)...and read the various daily newspapers, you come to rate poverty in Germany as now being one of the top three political issues. 

The blunt truth is that poverty in Germany over the past thirty years, has been a major topic and rarely if ever....disappears from public view.  It might slip from number one to number six or eight....but it just never disappears as a major problem, and it usually returns to number one or two after a couple of years. 

As an outsider, I have a different view of poverty than most Germans.  I've traveled around the country and simply viewed the landscape, the public trends, acceptance, and political anxiety over solving this.  In the minds of most intellectuals and politicians.....the fix is simple....just more money.

I go back to the core of this topic and offer the these four observations:

1.  If you end up in some patchwork-family situation, with marginal parental leadership and guidance....you don't get coaching or advice on making wise decisions.  As crappy decisions are made into a life-long path for your parents....you tend to follow the same path, and your kids will eventually follow your crappy path as well.

2.  As much as the school system in Germany is often bragged about....if you don't latch on and hang tight....you won't get any real advantages out of the schooling system, and you will end up with some marginal job that pays just enough to survive.  These people go for the next forty years....doing some marginal effort...just making enough to live, and then wake up at age sixty-five to realize their pension is barely enough to cover two-thirds of their needs....thus requiring some food charity to cover the rest.

3.  As much as the social system will brag about their people, and the efforts they make to lift up troubled people....I don't give them much hype or grade them in a positive way.  A lot of these people need eight hours a day of absolute coaching, with some kind of decision-making wisdom dumped upon them.  You've got parents who just can't parent....stuck there with three kids....letting them roam freely and without any real guidance. 

4.  Finally, to the ghetto topic.  Crowded inner-city lifestyles aren't working, and they serve more as a breeding ground for kids to latch onto other troubled kids as their best way ahead. You can go into Berlin, Frankfurt, or Hamburg and find various ghetto establishments....either starting to bloom, or in full bloom.  In Kaiserslautern, I was surprised to find two single areas of town where a couple of buildings in each area was maintaining the status quo of ghetto family life.  We aren't talking about one generation, or even two generations....but they were working on three generations.

So I opened up the ARD news pieces for today, and here is the new hot topic for the Berlin leadership....more money.  Merkel, with the CDU-SPD team...will work to pour around twelve billion Euro over the next four years....mostly aimed at kid and child programs.  Free Kita or child-care?  To some degree, it'll happen.

Fixing the issues?  By the time you figure the various programs, the manpower necessary, the buildings and structure cost...probably a quarter of the twelve billion will be eaten up.  On paper, they applaud the efforts and maybe the journalists will go away for two years to allow the programs some breathing space.  By 2021?  Don't worry....all this chatter will return as the same issues remain.

Seehofer Comments

I noticed this morning via N-TV (German commercial TV news)....that the new German Federal Interior Minister....Horst Seehofer....got into the news.

He made a comment or two via BILD (the national German newspaper) over one of his first acts as the new head of the Interior Ministry.....to develop a "master plan for faster asylum procedures and more consistent deportations".

Over the last couple of years, there have been efforts to run the deportation business as a national program.  The reality is...currently, it's a state-by-state (16 total states in Germany) program.  If you come up and fail on integration or do some stupid things....it really depends on the state you live and how quick they make the process.

Nationwide, I would suggest that roughly two-thirds of the German public simply shake their head over how the deportations are run, and the delay process.  A bulk of the public want some federal process, and maybe one or two deportation centers to be run.  The general idea talked about in public is that if you fail....some government guy is standing there and you pack up your bags to report to the deportation center.  There, you'd be in some waiting game to ensure your old country would take you back.

The fact that most countries aren't interested in taking their folks back...particularly if there was a criminal record attached to the guy?  This gets brought up and the question is then asked how long this waiting process might take.  Years?  Once you suggest that....the pro-asylum crowd get hyper because you can't force some guy into a two or three year compound-lifestyle. 

Seehofer went on to talk about "zero tolerance of offenders".   This is another trend with German society, in noting that a fair number of the drug sales crowd today in Germany....are migrants. 

What'll happen with Seehofer and his aggressive view on the deportation business?  To be honest, both the CDU and SPD are looking for a new solution to regain public trust and votes.  Two state elections are slated for this year (Hessen and Bavaria).  In both cases, they need to show some movement and changes, or the AfD picks up more votes.

Anger by the Linke Party and Greens?  More than likely....yes.  Both have shown a open view of stalling deportations. 

In 2017, there were roughly 22,000 individuals deported out of Germany.  At the end of 2017....the German authorities admitted in public statements that there are around 550,000 individuals in Germany on failed visa applications.  The vast majority (probably nearing 99-percent) are involved in an appeals process and dragging this via the German court system (it was never designed to handle cases like this and in this high of a number).

Part of Seehofer's problem will be the failed visa applications and the appeals process.  Some Germans believe the only way to fix this appeals process is to create a special court system that only hears immigration appeals, and that there are only limited ways to enter your appeal on the failed visa application.  But to create this specialized court?  Germans aren't known for speed on issues like this, and it could take two years to draft up the operational method, hire the folks, and get this up and running.

Even if the appeals problem was fixed.....then you come to the curious problem of getting the old country to accept the individual back.  Most of the time, when you hear about these episodes of the 550,000....they don't relate to Iraq or Syrian folks.  They relate more to North African folks who came in on the big 2014-2016 smuggler 'wave'. 

Where all this goes?  Frankly, Seehofer has an enormous task and I doubt if you see more than 40,000 folks deported in 2018. 

Saturday, March 10, 2018

Spahn Talks

Focus wrote a short piece today over a comment or two that CDU's newly designated health minister Jens Spahn made....about CDU voters that left in 2017, and voted along with the AfD (the anti-immigration party).

Spahn made the comment that the voters are not lost and that the CDU could recover these voters over the next couple of years. 

Yeah....he use the expression 'lost Nazis'.  Generally, once you utter something like that...folks don't retreat back to the CDU.  But I think he meant it as a jab at the core element of the AfD Party. 

In the big picture of things, the experts say about 980,000 votes that went to the AfD were former CDU folks.  The other 4.3 million votes?  Well....probably in the range of one million were the original folks who were AfD to start with, and the rest came from the SPD, the Linke Party, and even some Greens.  All were in some way....making a comment about the immigration failures.

Spahn wants political arguments to exist within the CDU....to challenge the base and to push the party back toward a conservative base.  Part of that argument is about family values, and the cohesive nature of German society.  Then Spahn laid out the last comment....in that criminal gangs are now part of the urban environment of Germany....suggesting cops and law enforcement need to be a big part of the future.

Anyone who thought that the job within the health ministry would keep Spahn occupied about ONLY health matters....is simply fooling himself.  Spahn will entertain just about any public forum, and chat on dozens of dozens that have nothing to do with your health or such. 

If you were looking for a twist to the Merkel end-song.....Spahn will likely deliver that twist.

The Jobs Topic

In regional news around where I live (in the Frankfurt shadow), they had a piece via HR (our public network), which centered on a new problem in the region.

The Frankfurt Airport (one of the biggest job centers in the region) is desperately seeking 1,800 folks.  They are undergoing a job-spurt and admit that it's getting more and more difficult to find people for various jobs around the airport (security, bus drivers, luggage system repair folks, etc).

The job-center crowd (the normal vehicle to get workers)?  Well....it's not working.  They have gone to newspapers and various sources to find these folks.  The bigger issue....as they are working on Terminal Three construction....in roughly four years....it'll be fully operational and probably need at least 5,000 more employees.