Thursday, September 26, 2013

"Risk Analysis" Matrix

Wiesbaden, the US Army, helicopters, flights, political figures, action groups, environmental players, and "risk analysis".....all add up to make a German version of Matrix (complex, deep scenarios, chaos, and no virtual outcome until the last twelve minutes of the movie).

It's an odd piece.  The US Army sat and made some decisions several years ago....that they'd stay in three primary areas of Germany....Graffenwoehr, Stuttgart and Wiesbaden.  The facilities in Stuttgart were an anchor....Graf had the practice or maneuver area, and Wiesbaden?  Well....the city hyped up things and preferred to have them as their neighbor at the airfield....rather than allow the Frankfurt Flughafen folks take it over.  It was that simple.

Days....weeks....and months have passed.  Frankly, bad relations have started up over helicopter activity around the local area.  So political folks and action committees meet routinely now to discuss this.  They'd like to invite the US Army in and participate....mostly by providing data and acting on the wishes of the committee.  As you can imagine....the US Army doesn't play this type of game.

Statistics are desired help prove the point of the locals that the US Army is acting in a reckless manner.  The statistics aren't going to come via folks sit around and create their own database efforts.....some pure...some questionable.

The chairman of the local environmental committee is all peppy over this talk....because it only reflects the hazardous threat to lives via crashes.  They don't count up pollution or the dire consequences of the environment.  You can sense where the intended priorities should go with this environmental group.

All of this leads to what management calls in the modern era...."risk analysis".

If you have project a analyze the solution the problem, and note the changes.  Then you return, repeat as often as possible.  All of this....assumes that you have a valid problem in the first place.

You can guess the gut feeling by local political folks over this.  If you start digging deep into the US Army....they will eventually add up the score, and say "enough"....pack and go....and leave the airfield and support structure to the Flughafen folks.....who would be twice as bad to handle, control, and fight tooth and nail via the legal system in Frankfurt and Wiesbaden.  Political folks know when you have one bad don't swap it for a second bad cow.  They'd like for some pleasant ending to this, and just leave the US Army folks alone.

What I anticipate in the end?  Around a decade from now....the US Army will be told to decrease its footprint in Germany, and pack up everything in Wiesbaden to leave.  It'll be a minor shock for the locals.  The bigger shock will be how quickly the Flughafen folks move in....take control of the runway....and create a bigger monster for the locals to fight.

No comments: