Monday, September 16, 2013

The Bavaria Election

Yesterday was the state election in Bavaria....a week ahead of the national election.  You'd have to have a German political analyst explain the timing business.  I do know that German states (all sixteen) can run their own interior elections, and rig the timing as they please (as long as it's on a Sunday).

In this case?  You could say that this gives a big hint on the national election and the trends in play.

The results?

First, the CSU (cousin of the CDU)....picked up roughly forty-nine percent of the vote.  It was considered a major win.....better than they had expected.

Second, the FDP in Bavaria did lousy.  They barely got three percent and this really hints of problems across the whole country.  Some folks suggest that some CDU folks might cross the line and just 'throw' their vote to the FDP....just to ensure they get to the five-percent point.

Third, the Greens did less than average.  The news media is hinting that Green enthusiasm peaked out in the last four years.  With various positions put into place this year for the election....they may have lost two or three percentage points because of views on this positions.

Fourth, the Pirate Party?  Well.....they took barely two percent of the vote in Bavaria.  Across Germany?  I would imagine they will be lucky to get three percent.

What's left?  Merkel will lead the CDU to a victory.....with a forty to forty-four point win.  No one much disputes that now.  The remaining question is the FDP at the national level, and if they can get the five-percent and still be a partner to the CDU.  Otherwise, the election business is finished.

In a way, the Bavaria election released much of the enthusiasm around the country from next week's election.  From an American's odd to see an election where people aren't that peppy about who wins and loses.  It's not a typical German least I get that impression.  But, it's an election that doesn't get folks all upset and hostile afterwards.  Maybe that's a good thing.

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