Thursday, October 9, 2014

German Gas Crisis (Real or Imaginary)?

I noticed Focus picked up the whole topic of the natural gas episode with Russia and Germany today.  A decent article, which goes into some detail over what may OR may not occur.

Some folks noted last week that while gas reserves exist in Germany....most are owned by Russian companies.  Well...Focus noted that there are laws already on the books that the German government can take over these logistical storage units at any point.

Focus notes that there are plans already detailing the levels of the issue: early-warning threat, alert threat, and emergency threat.  Each has actions noted and would get across the message to the German public that their best interest was being pursued by the government.

Would every German house continue to get natural gas?  Under the first stage, it appears to be so, but they'd likely ask for consumers to be mindful of limitations and where stage two might start-up.  They also noted.....that these steps might not be done in succession, and it's completely possible that you might even start at the emergency threat level.

Most analysts say that Germany has enough natural gas on handle a minimum of four months.  This being October....unless a serious winter occurs....they'd make it to early spring if the Russians turned off the natural gas flow tomorrow.  Adding to this game.....most analysts believe more markets could be quickly developed (Netherlands, Belgium, etc) and by late summer of 2015....they'd be absolutely secure in their position.

The Russians?  No one says much....only the perceived threat.  Personally, it's hard to see how the Russian economy would remain stable if they went to this step of cutting natural gas flow.

My own perception of Germans and they'd react to a gas crisis?  Germans are pretty hardy individuals.  They've shown a lot of innovation over the past hundred years, and this might draw up an entire new way at looking at heating German homes.  If you had to lower the heat in the house down 16C (60 degrees F).....they'd do it and just accept the fact it was that way.  They'd likely draw up a calender showing "1 May 2015" and just imagine a just sunny spring coming shortly.

Minute by minute commentary by some 24-hour news network in Germany?  No.  They don't get into such things.....nor do Germans do a lot of the blame game.

So, this natural gas crisis might come, or it might not.  You just can't tell.  But on the list of top ten's just not there yet, and it might never make it to the top ten.

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