Thursday, October 30, 2014

The Hooligan Debate

What occurred in Koln over this past weekend.....has consumed a fair amount of political chatter and debate.  The cops will generally pat themselves on the back to say that they really kept it under as much control as possible, with forty-odd injured cops as the results.  The hooligans and extreme-right-wing will say that they met and demonstrated over frustrations.  And the political folks generally talk of banning such demonstrations in the future.

Where does this go next?

A big demonstration is scheduled for 15 November in Berlin and Hamburg.  The authorities say they will use current laws in place to ban the marchers.

German law is very open and friendly toward any and all marchers, but then draws a line at violence or public destruction.  The minute that your parade or group starts to harm anyone.....the banning law easily gets pulled out and utilized.  Of course, just saying your march is banned and thus stopping mostly a bogus rhetoric game.

The amusing side of this debate?  The Islamic groups and Kurdish groups who've run marches over the past six months....kept things generally peaceful (there's been one or two exceptions to that).  They aren't listed on the topic discussion list by the German political's strictly the right-wing and hooligan crowd being discussed.  Naturally, there's going to be frustration that the authorities sided with the Muslims....something that will be noted by the public.

From video of the Koln demonstration, you would notice that the police have added a number of video devices to their efforts....trying to identify people in the crowd, and probably use the video later for criminal proceedings.

What happens on the 15th?  My humble guess is that several thousand people will merge in both Hamburg and Berlin, without a permit, and demonstrate. Oddly enough, there are several soccer games requiring a massive police presence already planned for that Saturday throughout Germany.  So you can expect almost every single cop in Germany.....working that day (probably over-time)....and few will be on the road or street for normal operations.

Violence on the 15th?  If I were the hooligans, I'd try to run a simple profile, with the intention of no fights or violence.  But knowing the typical expectations of such episodes.....there's going to be trouble somewhere in the mix.

Finally, all of this simply gets snowballed into something, with the public sitting there that evening....asking questions and thinking over what they see.  The hooligans would like to get public attention.  Whether it works or the question.

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