The city of Wiesbaden has to run some youth migrant center in town....for the underage crowd that showed up.
Tuesday morning....roughly 2AM....some fist-fight broke out with two punks knocking a 3rd punk. Cops had to get called. Charged will be flipped over to the two that started the fight.
The argument that started this? Unknown.
This is one of the odd characteristics of the whole immigrant thing in Germany that I've noticed since the summer of 2013. For the past six months....it's been occurring less often. In 2015....it was almost every single week, you'd notice in some region or part of Germany.....cops got called out to settle a fist-fight between a couple of folks.
What you'd tend to notice in the stories is that no one ever seemed to ask what the fight was over....as it started. Journalists never asked that question. I'm assuming that the cops didn't ever really want to know or care. They just want a simple six-line explanation to put into the daily blotter report.
Typically, in some tent-city operation or close-quarters situation.....based on my experience....fights usually started up over three things. The first first was some disrespect angle, and you had to defend your respect. The second was usually over a woman or a tramp gal that two guys both felt was "their gal". The third usually involved too much alcohol. Usually the alcohol-drive fights were the least intensive, and folks usually gave up after 60 seconds. In Panama, we had two housewives in Army housing that got into a fight one day over one referring to the other as a "tramp" (she was actually having guys visit occasionally) at the house.....that fight went on for almost twenty minutes. The fight stopped mostly because both gals had lost a fair amount of their clothing and other ladies watching felt it wasn't decent to let this continue.
With all these nationalities in immigrant German-centers? A lot of them just don't have much focus, or they look for just about anything to establish themselves as some authority.
No one suggests this problem in this case.....but you really can't be sure that any of the three 'teens' in this episode are real teens. They might all have paperwork to claim their teen-status, but they might all be 20-to-25 years old. You just don't know.
Charges in this case? Assault probably, and the social office will caution the judge not to do anything rash because it'll ruin the immigration status for the two punks.
In the end, the cops are the ones who really hate this business. At 2AM, they'd typically be on the back-burner, and just trying to stay awake. They get this call,and get all pumped up driving over. They really don't need to run around in some dark parking lot and figure which building and room this is occurring in. Then they have to worry if other immigrants will react badly and make this a worse situation, and they end up having to draw some weapon (the last possible scenario they desire).
So it goes.
Tuesday, January 31, 2017
Starbucks, the Migrant Hire, and Germany
Over the weekend, as part of the Trump-slam on the six countries banned from the visa process....Starbuck's CEO (Howard Schultz) came out and said that Starbucks would hire 10,000 migrants/immigrants over the next three years. It was a PR-type message and got page one attention (even I will admit that).
How this will work? Well....Starbucks has 24,000 shops in seventy countries. So, they've got a widespread map.
Back in 2002, Starbucks opened the first shop in Germany (in Berlin). Two years ago (2014), Starbucks was noted having 163 shops. Today, I'd guess they are near 180 shops....although a handful over the past two years have shut down (poorly envisioned location is typically the blame).
One might take a guess that with a large footprint across Germany, and with a large population of unemployed migrants/immigrants....Germany might be taking over a thousand of these 10,000 target migrant-jobs.
The issues? Well, it's an interesting thing. To be a Starbucks barista.....you typically are talking about a part-time job. This means roughly 9-Euro an hour, or a 812-Euro a month pay situation.
On a practical list of job situations that appeal to some migrant....this pay deal won't work. Maybe if you lined up a part-time McDonalds job, a part-time Starbucks barista job, and a part-time clean-up job at the local mall....then you might clear the 2,000 Euro a month point. It's not much of a career or positive economic story.
For the unqualified migrant who convinced the German BaMF folks to give him a visa but he doesn't show much for a future craft or training program? Well....it makes sense. You can train the guy in eight hours to make gourmet coffee and then hope that he shows all the positive attitude values that you tend to expect out of Starbuck's employees.
Where this will start to go wrong? I can imagine some shop boss hiring six to eight Middle-Eastern guys over a six-month period, and their male chauvinistic attitude starts to dampen the German ladies working at the shop, and you start to see certain employees up and quit. Then you as the boss, try to have a pep talk and convey that you can't behave this way or you need to mature-up and act like adults. A month later, you as the boss start to realize the pep talk didn't work, and in fact....some customers are detecting the ongoing behavior as unacceptable, thus refusing to buy their coffee there.
I do agree, you can find some migrants with a positive attitude and highly enthusiastic about their new land, and all the wonders of the commercial world....to include highly-priced Starbuck's coffee. But these individuals will be the ones who get picked up for 10-Euro or 12-Euro type jobs, and quickly move on. The Starbucks low-salary structure won't be this great enticement.
My humble guess is that along about 2020....this page on the Starbucks company web site hyping up the program, will be removed, and this program will be considered a less-than-great success. For some Starbuck's operations in Germany....it might help them advance quicker to closure than anything else. The ladies who quit and move on? It wouldn't surprise me if they figured out the coffee game and some new innovative coffee houses open in Germany out of this mess.
How this will work? Well....Starbucks has 24,000 shops in seventy countries. So, they've got a widespread map.
Back in 2002, Starbucks opened the first shop in Germany (in Berlin). Two years ago (2014), Starbucks was noted having 163 shops. Today, I'd guess they are near 180 shops....although a handful over the past two years have shut down (poorly envisioned location is typically the blame).
One might take a guess that with a large footprint across Germany, and with a large population of unemployed migrants/immigrants....Germany might be taking over a thousand of these 10,000 target migrant-jobs.
The issues? Well, it's an interesting thing. To be a Starbucks barista.....you typically are talking about a part-time job. This means roughly 9-Euro an hour, or a 812-Euro a month pay situation.
On a practical list of job situations that appeal to some migrant....this pay deal won't work. Maybe if you lined up a part-time McDonalds job, a part-time Starbucks barista job, and a part-time clean-up job at the local mall....then you might clear the 2,000 Euro a month point. It's not much of a career or positive economic story.
For the unqualified migrant who convinced the German BaMF folks to give him a visa but he doesn't show much for a future craft or training program? Well....it makes sense. You can train the guy in eight hours to make gourmet coffee and then hope that he shows all the positive attitude values that you tend to expect out of Starbuck's employees.
Where this will start to go wrong? I can imagine some shop boss hiring six to eight Middle-Eastern guys over a six-month period, and their male chauvinistic attitude starts to dampen the German ladies working at the shop, and you start to see certain employees up and quit. Then you as the boss, try to have a pep talk and convey that you can't behave this way or you need to mature-up and act like adults. A month later, you as the boss start to realize the pep talk didn't work, and in fact....some customers are detecting the ongoing behavior as unacceptable, thus refusing to buy their coffee there.
I do agree, you can find some migrants with a positive attitude and highly enthusiastic about their new land, and all the wonders of the commercial world....to include highly-priced Starbuck's coffee. But these individuals will be the ones who get picked up for 10-Euro or 12-Euro type jobs, and quickly move on. The Starbucks low-salary structure won't be this great enticement.
My humble guess is that along about 2020....this page on the Starbucks company web site hyping up the program, will be removed, and this program will be considered a less-than-great success. For some Starbuck's operations in Germany....it might help them advance quicker to closure than anything else. The ladies who quit and move on? It wouldn't surprise me if they figured out the coffee game and some new innovative coffee houses open in Germany out of this mess.
Economics and Germany
Among the forty-odd topics that my university years introduced me to and set me 'on-fire', was the subject of economics. Sadly, I wish that I had various options listed out for evening classes on economics, but that's one of those topics that you don't find in abundance for night-school. So over the years, I've gained a great deal of insight and respect for the topic of economics.
Part of my window of observation today....revolves around looking at German economics and it's trends.
For those who aren't aware....Germany has a fairly successful story on the last decade in terms of economics. German GDP growth is 4th in the world....almost 2-percent in 2016. Inflation? .5-percent. Go look at Iran (near 19-percent) or the Ukraine (11-percent).
Today, Germany covers 90-percent of it's agricultural needs. Most of what gets imported in....are crops or items which are grown in warmer regions in the fall or winter period. So you can walk into any German grocery and be shocked in mid-November to find strawberries from Morocco, or grapes from Chile. Most of the agricultural products that Germany does export? Sugar beets, barley, and fruit.
Few people realize it, but Germany typically builds five million minimum cars every single year, and this is a major part of the economic success of the nation. When you go and talk about market sectors across the globe....some business enthusiasts note that Germany has around 1,500 companies that fall into the top-three tier of these hundreds of sectors that exist. A lot of this business success in manufacturing or production? It comes from family-owned companies....something that is of a rare nature in the United States....yet still survives in Germany.
What's carried a lot of the growth income over the past decade in Germany? Tourism. Around a decade ago, there was this study which looked at the individual German state (16 total), and found that at that time (2008), Bavaria had 42 million hotel nights accounted for, with 17.3 million foreign guests noted over that one-year period. The national statistics office looked at 2015, and noted across all of Germany....436-million hotel-nights were seen. They even noted that 79.7 million foreign guests came to spend at least one day in Germany. The chief draw? Architecture, historical sites, beer, safety, and an aggressive sales angle.
You can go and view the hundreds of companies now existing in Germany with a technology and 'green' angle. Journalists put their sales at 200 billion Euro plus now.
So the negative side of this story?
Let's be honest....roughly 15-percent of the German population is classified as below the poverty category, and you can put around an additional 15-percent as the lower-income working-class which is slightly above the poverty line. Some argue where the lines start and end, or how the divisions are worked up, but you've got approximately a third of the nation which isn't thrilled or that enthusiastic about the present economy. Losing a job today, at age 55 is a big deal because it'll be near impossible to find another job.
German jobs shifting out of the country? There are certain jobs which can't go beyond the borders....from the service sector, to high-technology, and onto tourism-related jobs. The EU sat there a couple of years ago and was talking about this idea that you couldn't say a made-in-Germany product unless at least 45-percent of the product was made and assembled there. There was this odd trend where a lot of parts and assembly were made in the eastern European states, and just shipped off to Germany for the last part of the episode, with cheap German labor as the last step.
German companies that produce TV's today? Non-existent.
Vodafone used to make a large number of smart-phones in Germany, and one day.....said 'enough'....moving the manufacturing to Romania, for cheaper labor.
If you walk into a typical German department store today and look for German-made clothing....the odds are against you finding such clothing. Shoes? Same way. Upscale shops might still carry the high-grade shoes or clothing. The rest moved on.
Industry-wise, it's a nation that knows it can't compete with China and allows massive import, just like the US.
Worry by the political folks (especially by the SPD, which used to be the pro-worker's political party)? You'd think that they'd be looking at the votes and be fairly worried. Nationally, it's a great rate....roughly 5-percent unemployment. But if you go region by region....especially in NRW....you start to find various areas with 10-to-14 percent unemployment. Chief cause? Manufacturing shifted out of the country. Older guys who get dismissed....simply standing there and waiting for some magic trick to occur by the political folks, who are mostly out of tricks.
Bavaria? It's a totally different story. They are actually (Jan 2016 rate) around 4.5 percent unemployed. If you use just the upper northern-third of Bavaria.....using 2014 numbers....they were fairly close to 2.5-percent. You just need to hold up your hand, and you'd catch a job within the state. In most of the EU countries....youth-unemployment is a serious issue....with 20-percent unemployment rates not being that unusual. In Bavaria, if you scan for youth unemployment....the number is near 2.4-percent....which is an amazing number if you think about the rest of the EU.
The whole last decade in Germany has been a somewhat great success story. The problem is that roughly a third of the nation see stagnation and no real opportunity existing. There are the 'haves' and 'have-nots'. No one from the CDU or SPD parties can stand in the presence of this crowd and say much. It's this group which can intimidate the parties and the intellectual news players the most. This public isn't interested in some new program, or some new distribution of additional cash.....they want jobs and a better pay scale.
In a nutshell...as much negativity that exists around the US about the economy that exists.....the same issues exist in Germany.
Part of my window of observation today....revolves around looking at German economics and it's trends.
For those who aren't aware....Germany has a fairly successful story on the last decade in terms of economics. German GDP growth is 4th in the world....almost 2-percent in 2016. Inflation? .5-percent. Go look at Iran (near 19-percent) or the Ukraine (11-percent).
Today, Germany covers 90-percent of it's agricultural needs. Most of what gets imported in....are crops or items which are grown in warmer regions in the fall or winter period. So you can walk into any German grocery and be shocked in mid-November to find strawberries from Morocco, or grapes from Chile. Most of the agricultural products that Germany does export? Sugar beets, barley, and fruit.
Few people realize it, but Germany typically builds five million minimum cars every single year, and this is a major part of the economic success of the nation. When you go and talk about market sectors across the globe....some business enthusiasts note that Germany has around 1,500 companies that fall into the top-three tier of these hundreds of sectors that exist. A lot of this business success in manufacturing or production? It comes from family-owned companies....something that is of a rare nature in the United States....yet still survives in Germany.
What's carried a lot of the growth income over the past decade in Germany? Tourism. Around a decade ago, there was this study which looked at the individual German state (16 total), and found that at that time (2008), Bavaria had 42 million hotel nights accounted for, with 17.3 million foreign guests noted over that one-year period. The national statistics office looked at 2015, and noted across all of Germany....436-million hotel-nights were seen. They even noted that 79.7 million foreign guests came to spend at least one day in Germany. The chief draw? Architecture, historical sites, beer, safety, and an aggressive sales angle.
You can go and view the hundreds of companies now existing in Germany with a technology and 'green' angle. Journalists put their sales at 200 billion Euro plus now.
So the negative side of this story?
Let's be honest....roughly 15-percent of the German population is classified as below the poverty category, and you can put around an additional 15-percent as the lower-income working-class which is slightly above the poverty line. Some argue where the lines start and end, or how the divisions are worked up, but you've got approximately a third of the nation which isn't thrilled or that enthusiastic about the present economy. Losing a job today, at age 55 is a big deal because it'll be near impossible to find another job.
German jobs shifting out of the country? There are certain jobs which can't go beyond the borders....from the service sector, to high-technology, and onto tourism-related jobs. The EU sat there a couple of years ago and was talking about this idea that you couldn't say a made-in-Germany product unless at least 45-percent of the product was made and assembled there. There was this odd trend where a lot of parts and assembly were made in the eastern European states, and just shipped off to Germany for the last part of the episode, with cheap German labor as the last step.
German companies that produce TV's today? Non-existent.
Vodafone used to make a large number of smart-phones in Germany, and one day.....said 'enough'....moving the manufacturing to Romania, for cheaper labor.
If you walk into a typical German department store today and look for German-made clothing....the odds are against you finding such clothing. Shoes? Same way. Upscale shops might still carry the high-grade shoes or clothing. The rest moved on.
Industry-wise, it's a nation that knows it can't compete with China and allows massive import, just like the US.
Worry by the political folks (especially by the SPD, which used to be the pro-worker's political party)? You'd think that they'd be looking at the votes and be fairly worried. Nationally, it's a great rate....roughly 5-percent unemployment. But if you go region by region....especially in NRW....you start to find various areas with 10-to-14 percent unemployment. Chief cause? Manufacturing shifted out of the country. Older guys who get dismissed....simply standing there and waiting for some magic trick to occur by the political folks, who are mostly out of tricks.
Bavaria? It's a totally different story. They are actually (Jan 2016 rate) around 4.5 percent unemployed. If you use just the upper northern-third of Bavaria.....using 2014 numbers....they were fairly close to 2.5-percent. You just need to hold up your hand, and you'd catch a job within the state. In most of the EU countries....youth-unemployment is a serious issue....with 20-percent unemployment rates not being that unusual. In Bavaria, if you scan for youth unemployment....the number is near 2.4-percent....which is an amazing number if you think about the rest of the EU.
The whole last decade in Germany has been a somewhat great success story. The problem is that roughly a third of the nation see stagnation and no real opportunity existing. There are the 'haves' and 'have-nots'. No one from the CDU or SPD parties can stand in the presence of this crowd and say much. It's this group which can intimidate the parties and the intellectual news players the most. This public isn't interested in some new program, or some new distribution of additional cash.....they want jobs and a better pay scale.
In a nutshell...as much negativity that exists around the US about the economy that exists.....the same issues exist in Germany.
The Dual-Citizenship Talk
Years ago, while in the military, I worked with a guy who was getting out of the Air Force in a year or two, and he had these business ideas....mostly involving work in Europe. For some odd reason, he settled on the idea of needing another passport....another citizenship....without giving up the US citizenship.
At the time, I told him that this was pretty stupid and that the US didn't allow dual-citizenship. He argued the point that what they didn't know....would make this all pretty simple. On that point, I noted he was correct. Unless you walk up to some border point and try to present both passports, that's about the only way that the idiots would know about your dual-citizenship scheme.
The country he was choosing? Well, that was an odd thing too....Albania. Naturally, I voiced concern that it was a former communist country....but he noted that the word "former" was in my comment. By the late 1990s....Albania was this weird hybrid country that was a mix of everything. Today? I'd go as far as saying it's 100-percent different from the 1980s image of some 3rd-world country, and actually becoming a weird vacation spot for Europeans.
So I asked how this would work, and he noted that he'd talked to some Albanian lawyer guy who would set up complete fake residence, and use some insider info to obtain residence/citizenship. Cost? Oh, well....that was in the $20,000 range. I doubt if the country tax revenue folks got more than half of that, and the lawyer was getting a fair sum of the money. The thing was....you'd have to pay a bit to the country each year as some fee. It reminded me of some mafia tax situation.
My associate did leave the service a year or so later, and did get into the private business situation within Europe. I assume he still holds both the Albanian and US passports today.
I'm not much of a supporter of the dual-citizenship thing. There's always some angle to it. You do it for business reasons or ease-of-entry reasons typically.
I noticed in German news today, which got hyped up.....that from the Trump-seven countries on the current ban list....some ARD journalists had done some minor research and gotten the government to note that there are 130,000 German dual-citizens from Libya, Iran, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Suden, and Syria. The bulk? Mostly from Iran for some odd reason.
The ARD slant on this? Well, these are German Bundestag members, political figures, cultural types, journalists, etc. Then they went on to say they'd contacted the US embassy in Berlin and wanted to discuss this. Well....the embassy said no....mostly because they don't have any information to really work with and no one from the State Department in the US had given enough data to bring facts to the table. Besides, as they noted from the embassy....the ban ends in 90 days.
Oddly, the article by the same ARD folks....did not mention that such bans occurred during the Obama period.
The thing is, if you really dig down into this....you can have dual, tri, quad, quinque (5), sexa (6), septi (7), octo (8), novem (9), and decem (10) citizenship. A multi-multi-multi citizen? Yes.
You could be a US-Canadian-Cuban-Albanian-Finn-Scot-German. Why you'd want these various other citizenships? It's beyond me. In most cases, you wouldn't even have to speak the native language (you no longer have to speak English in America for example).
How to make this possible....that we could all have these neat multiple identity situations? Well, it's not really a simple process.
It should be like my associate and his entry into Albania....you pay some fee under the table, and get a residence-citizen card. Germany should make this simple and have a 3,000 Euro fee (year by year of course) and hand out its citizenship to anyone who wants it. Same for France, and the US. Just charge people some yearly fee to be a multi-citizen. One form, a quick background check, and cash....make it that simple.
How many Germans hold dual citizenship, period (to include Russia, Greece, Turkey, etc)? Unknown. It's a relatively new topic, since it was approved officially in 2014. Before that? You might have carried the second citizenship on the side and just not said anything. Folks now kinda proudly admit their second citizenship....as some special part of their life or culture. I would take a guess that roughly two million Germans now have some form of citizenship that goes past the German citizenship.
The history side of this? Well, this is kinda of interesting. If you remember this 200-odd piece Germanic land that existed in 1800....most folks held citizenship in their particular region. A guy in the Wiesbaden area would have been a Nassau-Hessen citizen. A guy from Bavaria, would have been a Bavarian....not necessarily a Prussian, as you would think.
All this came to a dramatic end in 1913. In the summer of 1913....almost exactly a year prior to WW I.....the Bundestag came to an agreement that German citizenship would exist, and these different nationalities from the states would come to a lesser stage (existing but just a informal stage). They simply blessed everyone off, and they quietly became Germans.
It was NOT until 1934, that these state citizenships were entirely disassembled by the Berlin authority (the Nazis). So for 21 years....some functions of Bavarian and Nassau-Hessen citizenship continued on.
The odd part of this whole story? Hitler. You see....from birth to 1932....Hitler was an Austrian. To move up and become Chancellor....he needed German citizenship. So this Bavarian state rule existed (for many decades prior to Hitler). If you held a police position (even for one day) in Bavaria as a foreign citizen, then you could be brought in and made a Bavarian citizen....thus automatically getting German citizenship. Oddly, it took less than two years after Hitler citizenship moment occurred to close off this Hitler-Bavaria doorway. No one ever tells the story of how or why the doorway closed, which might be an interesting history story.
The odds of some present-day dual citizen in Germany arriving and becoming Chancellor in the next twenty years? Three years ago, I would have laughed and said zero chance. Today, I'd say it's more likely to be a twenty-percent chance of occurring. It's very possible in twenty years to see some Turk-German, Iranian-German, or perhaps even some Austrian-German (going along that Hitler path of 1932) as Chancellor. Some might even say that's it's a positive thing....a multi-German in a multi-world.
If you told this entire story to the typical working-class German, they'd probably grind their teeth a bit and ask for a second beer.
At the time, I told him that this was pretty stupid and that the US didn't allow dual-citizenship. He argued the point that what they didn't know....would make this all pretty simple. On that point, I noted he was correct. Unless you walk up to some border point and try to present both passports, that's about the only way that the idiots would know about your dual-citizenship scheme.
The country he was choosing? Well, that was an odd thing too....Albania. Naturally, I voiced concern that it was a former communist country....but he noted that the word "former" was in my comment. By the late 1990s....Albania was this weird hybrid country that was a mix of everything. Today? I'd go as far as saying it's 100-percent different from the 1980s image of some 3rd-world country, and actually becoming a weird vacation spot for Europeans.
So I asked how this would work, and he noted that he'd talked to some Albanian lawyer guy who would set up complete fake residence, and use some insider info to obtain residence/citizenship. Cost? Oh, well....that was in the $20,000 range. I doubt if the country tax revenue folks got more than half of that, and the lawyer was getting a fair sum of the money. The thing was....you'd have to pay a bit to the country each year as some fee. It reminded me of some mafia tax situation.
My associate did leave the service a year or so later, and did get into the private business situation within Europe. I assume he still holds both the Albanian and US passports today.
I'm not much of a supporter of the dual-citizenship thing. There's always some angle to it. You do it for business reasons or ease-of-entry reasons typically.
I noticed in German news today, which got hyped up.....that from the Trump-seven countries on the current ban list....some ARD journalists had done some minor research and gotten the government to note that there are 130,000 German dual-citizens from Libya, Iran, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Suden, and Syria. The bulk? Mostly from Iran for some odd reason.
The ARD slant on this? Well, these are German Bundestag members, political figures, cultural types, journalists, etc. Then they went on to say they'd contacted the US embassy in Berlin and wanted to discuss this. Well....the embassy said no....mostly because they don't have any information to really work with and no one from the State Department in the US had given enough data to bring facts to the table. Besides, as they noted from the embassy....the ban ends in 90 days.
Oddly, the article by the same ARD folks....did not mention that such bans occurred during the Obama period.
The thing is, if you really dig down into this....you can have dual, tri, quad, quinque (5), sexa (6), septi (7), octo (8), novem (9), and decem (10) citizenship. A multi-multi-multi citizen? Yes.
You could be a US-Canadian-Cuban-Albanian-Finn-Scot-German. Why you'd want these various other citizenships? It's beyond me. In most cases, you wouldn't even have to speak the native language (you no longer have to speak English in America for example).
How to make this possible....that we could all have these neat multiple identity situations? Well, it's not really a simple process.
It should be like my associate and his entry into Albania....you pay some fee under the table, and get a residence-citizen card. Germany should make this simple and have a 3,000 Euro fee (year by year of course) and hand out its citizenship to anyone who wants it. Same for France, and the US. Just charge people some yearly fee to be a multi-citizen. One form, a quick background check, and cash....make it that simple.
How many Germans hold dual citizenship, period (to include Russia, Greece, Turkey, etc)? Unknown. It's a relatively new topic, since it was approved officially in 2014. Before that? You might have carried the second citizenship on the side and just not said anything. Folks now kinda proudly admit their second citizenship....as some special part of their life or culture. I would take a guess that roughly two million Germans now have some form of citizenship that goes past the German citizenship.
The history side of this? Well, this is kinda of interesting. If you remember this 200-odd piece Germanic land that existed in 1800....most folks held citizenship in their particular region. A guy in the Wiesbaden area would have been a Nassau-Hessen citizen. A guy from Bavaria, would have been a Bavarian....not necessarily a Prussian, as you would think.
All this came to a dramatic end in 1913. In the summer of 1913....almost exactly a year prior to WW I.....the Bundestag came to an agreement that German citizenship would exist, and these different nationalities from the states would come to a lesser stage (existing but just a informal stage). They simply blessed everyone off, and they quietly became Germans.
It was NOT until 1934, that these state citizenships were entirely disassembled by the Berlin authority (the Nazis). So for 21 years....some functions of Bavarian and Nassau-Hessen citizenship continued on.
The odd part of this whole story? Hitler. You see....from birth to 1932....Hitler was an Austrian. To move up and become Chancellor....he needed German citizenship. So this Bavarian state rule existed (for many decades prior to Hitler). If you held a police position (even for one day) in Bavaria as a foreign citizen, then you could be brought in and made a Bavarian citizen....thus automatically getting German citizenship. Oddly, it took less than two years after Hitler citizenship moment occurred to close off this Hitler-Bavaria doorway. No one ever tells the story of how or why the doorway closed, which might be an interesting history story.
The odds of some present-day dual citizen in Germany arriving and becoming Chancellor in the next twenty years? Three years ago, I would have laughed and said zero chance. Today, I'd say it's more likely to be a twenty-percent chance of occurring. It's very possible in twenty years to see some Turk-German, Iranian-German, or perhaps even some Austrian-German (going along that Hitler path of 1932) as Chancellor. Some might even say that's it's a positive thing....a multi-German in a multi-world.
If you told this entire story to the typical working-class German, they'd probably grind their teeth a bit and ask for a second beer.
Monday, January 30, 2017
Someone Should Stand for the Atheists
Over the weekend, I sat and watched BBC, France-24, CNN, ARD (state-run/public-TV in Germany) for news. Top subject? Trump and his Muslim ban. Well....it would be actually a ban over six countries: Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Sudan.
The thing about this ban....while they want to hype it badly that it's only Muslims affected....I feel that they miss a vital point to this whole thing....a fairly unfair point. Atheists from Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria and Sudan are being excluded from entering the US on visas.
Yes, the non-God fearing folks are not being helped or protected by America. I fear this to be a great detraction for our noble government.
Sadly, NOT one single idiot journalist stood up for the atheists. No one put their mighty shield up or talked about the serious injustice done for the atheists of these seven countries.
Yes, atheists from Germany, Russia and even Mexico can still enter America....but these atheists of these seven nations will be unfairly denied.
Who will stand up for the atheists?
The thing about this ban....while they want to hype it badly that it's only Muslims affected....I feel that they miss a vital point to this whole thing....a fairly unfair point. Atheists from Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria and Sudan are being excluded from entering the US on visas.
Yes, the non-God fearing folks are not being helped or protected by America. I fear this to be a great detraction for our noble government.
Sadly, NOT one single idiot journalist stood up for the atheists. No one put their mighty shield up or talked about the serious injustice done for the atheists of these seven countries.
Yes, atheists from Germany, Russia and even Mexico can still enter America....but these atheists of these seven nations will be unfairly denied.
Who will stand up for the atheists?
'Fear Spaces' ?
Up until the last decade in Germany.....no one ever used the expression 'No-Go' area. I can remember arriving in Frankfurt in 1978, and getting the basic introduction to Germany. Most of what you got on insider information were 'Must-Go' areas....you need to go and see this, or you need to visit this pub in Sachsenhausen. In those days, you could have wandered around the Frankfurt train station and marveled at all of the architecture and then walked the whole depth of the city....it was all safe. Things changed over the past twenty years.
So I pulled up Focus today and was reading through an article on the trendy topic of 'No-Go' areas.
North Rhine-Westphalia is having a big long discussion within the political arena and the public. A growing segment of the local population believe that 'No-Go' areas exist in NRW, and they will draw the red circles on the districts or cities involved. The politicians say otherwise....mostly trying to hype safety and security. The problem is.....the public isn't buying it.
This triggers an awkward cascade of problems now. The Minister of the Interior for NRW....is an SPD Party guy. He's the front guy and having to continually tell woeful story in a positive way. Every single day....he's hit by a turn of events, or some comment that he has to make to the press from the region. He has taken to some agreement that violent mobster clans do exist in NRW and the cops are not achieving any success.
On any given day....some gun battle might erupt between clan X and clan Y over some drug deal gone wrong or someone treated with no respect. The German cops quietly come to clean up the mess, ask for witnesses, and write a final report with no clear conclusion. If they did do a through investigation....it'd lead onto someone and a court episode, but that would mean you would have to put people on the street and into dangerous situations. So they just let the clans continue on, with no hindrance.
The expression used by the Minister of the Interior....instead of 'No-Go' areas? He's neatly invented 'Fear Spaces'.
'Fear Spaces'?
This is where you the cop have arrived in some neighborhood with issues, and you notice a dark corner or a poorly lit street, or some less-than-desirable houses, so you avoid that corner, that street, or that section of houses.
Note, he didn't suggest that thugs or foreign gangs run that area. That part was left out of public comments.
Why any of this matters? There's a lot of frustration in NRW right now, and the state election is barely 120 days away. There's frustration about a lack of jobs....significant refugee population growth in the state....broken promises from the SPD Party over the past twenty years....and a fear over terrorism, crime, and 'No-Go' areas. So this discussion that 'Fear Spaces' exist but 'No-Go' areas don't exist....well...it's worth two or three beers but it really doesn't entertain or satisfy anyone.
So I pulled up Focus today and was reading through an article on the trendy topic of 'No-Go' areas.
North Rhine-Westphalia is having a big long discussion within the political arena and the public. A growing segment of the local population believe that 'No-Go' areas exist in NRW, and they will draw the red circles on the districts or cities involved. The politicians say otherwise....mostly trying to hype safety and security. The problem is.....the public isn't buying it.
This triggers an awkward cascade of problems now. The Minister of the Interior for NRW....is an SPD Party guy. He's the front guy and having to continually tell woeful story in a positive way. Every single day....he's hit by a turn of events, or some comment that he has to make to the press from the region. He has taken to some agreement that violent mobster clans do exist in NRW and the cops are not achieving any success.
On any given day....some gun battle might erupt between clan X and clan Y over some drug deal gone wrong or someone treated with no respect. The German cops quietly come to clean up the mess, ask for witnesses, and write a final report with no clear conclusion. If they did do a through investigation....it'd lead onto someone and a court episode, but that would mean you would have to put people on the street and into dangerous situations. So they just let the clans continue on, with no hindrance.
The expression used by the Minister of the Interior....instead of 'No-Go' areas? He's neatly invented 'Fear Spaces'.
'Fear Spaces'?
This is where you the cop have arrived in some neighborhood with issues, and you notice a dark corner or a poorly lit street, or some less-than-desirable houses, so you avoid that corner, that street, or that section of houses.
Note, he didn't suggest that thugs or foreign gangs run that area. That part was left out of public comments.
Why any of this matters? There's a lot of frustration in NRW right now, and the state election is barely 120 days away. There's frustration about a lack of jobs....significant refugee population growth in the state....broken promises from the SPD Party over the past twenty years....and a fear over terrorism, crime, and 'No-Go' areas. So this discussion that 'Fear Spaces' exist but 'No-Go' areas don't exist....well...it's worth two or three beers but it really doesn't entertain or satisfy anyone.
Sunday, January 29, 2017
Explaining the Wall to a German
Over the past year, with all the explosive political chatter....the American wall business will pop up occasionally with Germans, and they get kinda hyped-up and go heavily into criticism. Those who do this....rarely ask questions and research into the topic. They are simply anti-wall. This comes from the 1961 to 1989 period of Germany....where "The Wall" existed and divided Germany even more than the invisible line that existed prior.
I'm not much at pro-wall or anti-wall.....although I do understand the discussion topic.
You can explain this to a German by asking them to imagine Germany bordering Romania....rather than Austria or Switzerland or Luxembourg.
I'm not much at pro-wall or anti-wall.....although I do understand the discussion topic.
You can explain this to a German by asking them to imagine Germany bordering Romania....rather than Austria or Switzerland or Luxembourg.
Imagine that 175,000 individuals hiked over the border each year, without any ID check. These 175,000 individuals would then go and take non-taxed work (even though it's illegal) and generally be paid in cash.
Then imagine that 2,000 of the group ended up routinely on some criminal situation (assault, robbery, rape, murder), spent time in jail and was sent back to the home country.....only to return a week later and restart their criminal lives.
Imagine Germans who live along this border and facing daily threats by individuals crossing if anything should threaten their walk across the border. Then imagine Germans so fed up with this behavior and the lack of solutions.....that they'd be willing to dump normal regular political candidates, and go for some extreme variation candidate, in hopes of fixing the problem.
The intellectual argument that would typically come from a German will center on The Wall that existed around Berlin, and some weepy-eyed talk over how frustrating it was for that near thirty-year period. You can console the person in that The Wall was never a two-way vision, with doorways to come and go.
The US wall? There are literally dozens of doorways that exist and you can walk to those doorways....present your visa, an ID, and a form I-94 (Arrival and Departure Record). The I-94? It's for a scenario where you need to travel more than 55 miles (don't ask) beyond the border and you are simply detailing your travel. I should note that the I-94 is good for six months and multiple trips, and cost around $6 per form.
The visa business? You can apply for a visa on dozens of ground, but you do it from your home....not after you cross the border. There is a visa category for sports figures, religious figures, entertainers, students, tourists, news journalists, or doctors. Want to enter to perform paid work, then there are visas for this as well.
You can go and find individuals from Germany, Japan, England, Russia, or Brazil who prepare for their new job situation in the US, and apply for the visa. Dirk Nowitzki holds a US visa. The various journalists employed by ARD and based out of the US? They all have visas. The Mercedes research team? They all have visas for their work in the US. German students who attend a US university for PhD efforts? They all have visas.
The crowd crossing the US border NOT via one of the doorways? No visa. The crowd going via any of the dozens of entry points of the US border with Mexico? They all have a visa.
What hinders the 175,000-odd people each year from NOT applying for a visa? That might be a million-Euro type question. Language? No, the form can come in most all languages. The details? It's a form that you can generally fill out with a 6th grade education. The time to fill it out? It generally takes roughly 15 minutes to fill it out. The cost? If this is a non-immigration visa (students, tourists, medical-treatment), then it's $160 to file it. I admit....it is hefty. Work-visas? Different category and typically cost $190.
So, at this point.....you kinda utter the phrase: "It's not rocket science". A margially educated person can write up the form for a visa in 15 minutes, and apply. The waiting time business? Well, yeah....that does come up as an issue. You might go and visit the consulate or embassy.....realizing after you hand the paperwork over, there is an interview required. This could be a 10-minute interview....it could be a one-hour interview. You might be waiting a month or two, to get the interview. In this case, that's the one area that the US could improve upon, and just hire more people to conduct the interview, or do these by Skype and quicken the pace.
So why skip the visa step? Why not play the game like Germans do, or people from Japan? It's paperwork and a bureaucratic mess. Most people are figuring to have cash-only type jobs and don't want to pay for federal taxes, state taxes, social security, or medical insurance. Most will say that it's better in this open-atmosphere, than sitting in their homeland. Note, for the most part, we aren't talking about Mexicans anymore.
There are probably people from at least forty countries (well beyond Mexico) that now use the southern border. In 2015, it was noted that an Iraqi guy attempted to cross the border from Mexico into the US.
I will admit one of the weak points to the idea of building a wall and making Mexico pay for the wall....is that a fair sum of the crossing folks AREN'T Mexican. So the tax idea really isn't that fair, and a burden for Mexico. But Mexico itself is just one big open crossing point, and they've allowed themselves to be a burden....without fixing their own problem.
What's required to enter Mexico, as an American? You need some form of ID. If you intend to go further than 25 miles into Mexico....you need a passport. If you intend to drive across (legally), then there's a $27 fee. The visitors fee? That's $22, per person. You want to stay a long while, or work? Then you need to fill out a Mexico form MF-3, which details the work location and some personal info. Total cost? Most people quote $500 from beginning to end (to include the photos). How many Americans illegally work in Mexico without the MF-3? No one discusses that much. In the year 2011, there were approximately 1,000 Americans found in Mexico....working....without the MF-3. You generally get a fine (roughly $400), and get dumped at the border.
Then you reach this point in the conversation....is there a problem in Germany where illegals have come and are working on the "black"?
The intellectual argument that would typically come from a German will center on The Wall that existed around Berlin, and some weepy-eyed talk over how frustrating it was for that near thirty-year period. You can console the person in that The Wall was never a two-way vision, with doorways to come and go.
The US wall? There are literally dozens of doorways that exist and you can walk to those doorways....present your visa, an ID, and a form I-94 (Arrival and Departure Record). The I-94? It's for a scenario where you need to travel more than 55 miles (don't ask) beyond the border and you are simply detailing your travel. I should note that the I-94 is good for six months and multiple trips, and cost around $6 per form.
The visa business? You can apply for a visa on dozens of ground, but you do it from your home....not after you cross the border. There is a visa category for sports figures, religious figures, entertainers, students, tourists, news journalists, or doctors. Want to enter to perform paid work, then there are visas for this as well.
You can go and find individuals from Germany, Japan, England, Russia, or Brazil who prepare for their new job situation in the US, and apply for the visa. Dirk Nowitzki holds a US visa. The various journalists employed by ARD and based out of the US? They all have visas. The Mercedes research team? They all have visas for their work in the US. German students who attend a US university for PhD efforts? They all have visas.
The crowd crossing the US border NOT via one of the doorways? No visa. The crowd going via any of the dozens of entry points of the US border with Mexico? They all have a visa.
What hinders the 175,000-odd people each year from NOT applying for a visa? That might be a million-Euro type question. Language? No, the form can come in most all languages. The details? It's a form that you can generally fill out with a 6th grade education. The time to fill it out? It generally takes roughly 15 minutes to fill it out. The cost? If this is a non-immigration visa (students, tourists, medical-treatment), then it's $160 to file it. I admit....it is hefty. Work-visas? Different category and typically cost $190.
So, at this point.....you kinda utter the phrase: "It's not rocket science". A margially educated person can write up the form for a visa in 15 minutes, and apply. The waiting time business? Well, yeah....that does come up as an issue. You might go and visit the consulate or embassy.....realizing after you hand the paperwork over, there is an interview required. This could be a 10-minute interview....it could be a one-hour interview. You might be waiting a month or two, to get the interview. In this case, that's the one area that the US could improve upon, and just hire more people to conduct the interview, or do these by Skype and quicken the pace.
So why skip the visa step? Why not play the game like Germans do, or people from Japan? It's paperwork and a bureaucratic mess. Most people are figuring to have cash-only type jobs and don't want to pay for federal taxes, state taxes, social security, or medical insurance. Most will say that it's better in this open-atmosphere, than sitting in their homeland. Note, for the most part, we aren't talking about Mexicans anymore.
There are probably people from at least forty countries (well beyond Mexico) that now use the southern border. In 2015, it was noted that an Iraqi guy attempted to cross the border from Mexico into the US.
I will admit one of the weak points to the idea of building a wall and making Mexico pay for the wall....is that a fair sum of the crossing folks AREN'T Mexican. So the tax idea really isn't that fair, and a burden for Mexico. But Mexico itself is just one big open crossing point, and they've allowed themselves to be a burden....without fixing their own problem.
What's required to enter Mexico, as an American? You need some form of ID. If you intend to go further than 25 miles into Mexico....you need a passport. If you intend to drive across (legally), then there's a $27 fee. The visitors fee? That's $22, per person. You want to stay a long while, or work? Then you need to fill out a Mexico form MF-3, which details the work location and some personal info. Total cost? Most people quote $500 from beginning to end (to include the photos). How many Americans illegally work in Mexico without the MF-3? No one discusses that much. In the year 2011, there were approximately 1,000 Americans found in Mexico....working....without the MF-3. You generally get a fine (roughly $400), and get dumped at the border.
Then you reach this point in the conversation....is there a problem in Germany where illegals have come and are working on the "black"?
The German will flip a bit and then realize this is not going the way it should....the German should typically win intellectual arguments with the American. So you go on and ask....aren't there regular daily raids on German bordellos to ensure visas and passports exist on the non-German/non-EU hookers? Aren't Zollamt personnel visiting construction sites daily in Germany to ID non-German/non-EU workers and ensure they have visas?
Yeah, it's just not a pretty topic of discussion.
Yeah, it's just not a pretty topic of discussion.
Saturday, January 28, 2017
This Hitler to Power Topic
Over the past week, I've noticed a couple of journalists who've tried to write a piece and note how Hitler and the Nazis came to power in Germany, and how today's environment be repeated with the Trump administration.
I'm always amazed at the limited scope of these written pieces and wonder if the journalists actually sat in any high school or university history classes, or if someone just handed them forty lines of material and they pasted it into their article.
So, this is the simplified version of Hitler and the Nazi walk into Germany's history. Rather than start the story in 1930, which is the typical journalistic slant, or the lesser choice of starting the story in 1919.....I'd rather go back to 1789. Don't worry.....I won't make this a 20,000 word essay.
In the late 1780s....France underwent a serious challenge to authority, and the king ended up being deposed (both he and the queen were executed in the end). From 1789 to 1799....France was mostly run by a club of "thugs", intellectuals, and crazed-nuts. In 1799....a brief window of opportunity opened for Napoleon Bonaparte. A failed campaign in Egypt didn't really matter....a hero's welcome in France brought this chance for a change in leadership. A draft or two, and in a matter of weeks....the Constitution had changed to what you would call a fake republic....which Napoleon would officially run (dictatorship would be a fine word to use, but after 11 years of the thugs running things, Napoleon wasn't such a bad deal).
So from 1799 to 1813.....Napoleon led France. Over the final five years of this period, France was engaged in active warfare against most of Europe. In 1813, the war basically ends. It took various countries in a unified effort to bring this to a conclusion.
At this point, if you gaze at a normal map of what is Germany today....you will notice what is roughly 200 different countries, empires, kingdoms, city-states, etc. All Germanic in nature but NOT unified. Prussia is the largest of these.
The Prussians recognize that they need a device to counter future aggression (by anyone), so there is this strategy. You take the 200-odd Germanic regions and invite them into Prussia. The chief selling point? A constitution and rights. Course, the fact that the Kaiser heads up the government and can override rights wasn't really discussed in full detail.
So over the next fifty years, this dynamic growth of Prussia occurs. By early 1860s....there is some peak to the voluntary nature of the Prussian invitation. So, the Prussians look at the final three areas which will need some physical method (war) to wrap up the job. In the case of Schlesweg-Holstein, a brief war (nine months in 1864) was necessary with Denmark. In 1868, the Province of Hesse-Nassau (today Hessen) was pushed out of a relationship with Austria, as were the Bavarians....into a part of Prussia.
You can safely say that from 1813 to 1919, this was more of a federation of Germanic states which were directed from the Kaiser's view. They retained their own individual character and traits.
As the WW I closed out, two major dynamics fell into place with the Hitler/Nazi Party growth. The treaty established at the close of the war....demanded reparations be paid, and the amount created a frustrating environment for the common German citizen (not really the culprit of the war starting, just a participant). The second dynamic was the position of the Bundestag now being the center of power, instead of the Kaiser.
The Weimar Republic, which rose out of the ashes of WW I.....was created with good intentions but was crafted around a very fragile and delicate idea of a republic. It would last fourteen years.
The chief worry in the first couple of years? Oddly, it was that chaos and communism (seen in a very negative light in the Soviet Union) could arrive on the doorstep of the Weimar Repubic on any given day. Adding to this....the fear of all these weapons which were brought home by frustrated solders after the war.....that they might be used to overthrow the Weimar Republic. Toss in the economic mess, and they simply weren't up to the job.
A frustrated Hitler returns to Munich in 1919 and catches up with old associates to get a job. What he is offered? The Bavarian secret police (as humorous as it sounds) were hiring a few folks to work their way into some political groups operating in Munich. For a normal guy, it would have just meant attending weekly meetings....writing a few reports each month....and collecting on a pretty easy and marginal pay situation. All he had to was hang out and pay attention.
Oddly, Hitler goes to the meetings....engages in the conversations....and makes a speech or two. Up until this point, the Nationalists Socialists were a minor league operation and going nowhere. Hitler made a couple of speeches and suddenly they were keyed onto the Hitler jargon and enthusiasm.
Face it.....Germany was made up of a lot of angry ex-military guys who felt cheated by the Kaiser, and were in an economic downfall which didn't show much recovery. Toss in the weak Weimar Republic, and state-by-state differences that existed within Germany....there you had fertile ground for the Nazis.
When the Nazi Party reaches the 1930s....they've got the perfect platform. They promise a significant number of socialist related benefits. You can go back and read the whole list, but it's the type of list that if you stood up in the US today and detailed the same list in 2017....probably half of the American public would easily identify and agree on this type of platform (something for nothing mentality).
Because of the weak nature of the Weimar Republic....it dissolves mostly into nothing, and the Nazis consume whatever is leftover. You can make hundreds of excuses, but Germany and it's various states wasn't prepared for this type of political apparatus.
In today's world.....when people hype some Hitler or Nazi threat....the thing you have to watch for is the idea or concept....is the hyper crowd anti-fascist or fascist in nature?
Typically, being a fascist means that you have a political philosophy or movement, that exhibits nationalism or special-interest group mentality that arise above the individual. To achieve their goals, they have to have things run by the central government with economic and social change actions directed at the general public....against the opposition. The problem in this case....have we wrapped up eight years of fascist-behavior or just started eight years of fascist-behavior?
You could sit for hours pondering this remarkable question. Who wears the white hats, and are they the anti-fascists or the fascists? In reality, back in the 1919 to 1932 period of Germany.....could one even say that the Nazis were the fascists? With the economic downfall after WW I and after the 1929 Wall Street crash....who was going to effect the rescue of the general German public? If you were the German public....you might find some logic in play to pick the least of the worst choices, and that might be the whole story to the Hitler hike to power.
So when you see some idiot journalist write some 80 line piece how Trumpism relates to Nazi takeover in Germany....you might want to look a lot deeper into the topic than the reporter did.
I'm always amazed at the limited scope of these written pieces and wonder if the journalists actually sat in any high school or university history classes, or if someone just handed them forty lines of material and they pasted it into their article.
So, this is the simplified version of Hitler and the Nazi walk into Germany's history. Rather than start the story in 1930, which is the typical journalistic slant, or the lesser choice of starting the story in 1919.....I'd rather go back to 1789. Don't worry.....I won't make this a 20,000 word essay.
In the late 1780s....France underwent a serious challenge to authority, and the king ended up being deposed (both he and the queen were executed in the end). From 1789 to 1799....France was mostly run by a club of "thugs", intellectuals, and crazed-nuts. In 1799....a brief window of opportunity opened for Napoleon Bonaparte. A failed campaign in Egypt didn't really matter....a hero's welcome in France brought this chance for a change in leadership. A draft or two, and in a matter of weeks....the Constitution had changed to what you would call a fake republic....which Napoleon would officially run (dictatorship would be a fine word to use, but after 11 years of the thugs running things, Napoleon wasn't such a bad deal).
So from 1799 to 1813.....Napoleon led France. Over the final five years of this period, France was engaged in active warfare against most of Europe. In 1813, the war basically ends. It took various countries in a unified effort to bring this to a conclusion.
At this point, if you gaze at a normal map of what is Germany today....you will notice what is roughly 200 different countries, empires, kingdoms, city-states, etc. All Germanic in nature but NOT unified. Prussia is the largest of these.
The Prussians recognize that they need a device to counter future aggression (by anyone), so there is this strategy. You take the 200-odd Germanic regions and invite them into Prussia. The chief selling point? A constitution and rights. Course, the fact that the Kaiser heads up the government and can override rights wasn't really discussed in full detail.
So over the next fifty years, this dynamic growth of Prussia occurs. By early 1860s....there is some peak to the voluntary nature of the Prussian invitation. So, the Prussians look at the final three areas which will need some physical method (war) to wrap up the job. In the case of Schlesweg-Holstein, a brief war (nine months in 1864) was necessary with Denmark. In 1868, the Province of Hesse-Nassau (today Hessen) was pushed out of a relationship with Austria, as were the Bavarians....into a part of Prussia.
You can safely say that from 1813 to 1919, this was more of a federation of Germanic states which were directed from the Kaiser's view. They retained their own individual character and traits.
As the WW I closed out, two major dynamics fell into place with the Hitler/Nazi Party growth. The treaty established at the close of the war....demanded reparations be paid, and the amount created a frustrating environment for the common German citizen (not really the culprit of the war starting, just a participant). The second dynamic was the position of the Bundestag now being the center of power, instead of the Kaiser.
The Weimar Republic, which rose out of the ashes of WW I.....was created with good intentions but was crafted around a very fragile and delicate idea of a republic. It would last fourteen years.
The chief worry in the first couple of years? Oddly, it was that chaos and communism (seen in a very negative light in the Soviet Union) could arrive on the doorstep of the Weimar Repubic on any given day. Adding to this....the fear of all these weapons which were brought home by frustrated solders after the war.....that they might be used to overthrow the Weimar Republic. Toss in the economic mess, and they simply weren't up to the job.
A frustrated Hitler returns to Munich in 1919 and catches up with old associates to get a job. What he is offered? The Bavarian secret police (as humorous as it sounds) were hiring a few folks to work their way into some political groups operating in Munich. For a normal guy, it would have just meant attending weekly meetings....writing a few reports each month....and collecting on a pretty easy and marginal pay situation. All he had to was hang out and pay attention.
Oddly, Hitler goes to the meetings....engages in the conversations....and makes a speech or two. Up until this point, the Nationalists Socialists were a minor league operation and going nowhere. Hitler made a couple of speeches and suddenly they were keyed onto the Hitler jargon and enthusiasm.
Face it.....Germany was made up of a lot of angry ex-military guys who felt cheated by the Kaiser, and were in an economic downfall which didn't show much recovery. Toss in the weak Weimar Republic, and state-by-state differences that existed within Germany....there you had fertile ground for the Nazis.
When the Nazi Party reaches the 1930s....they've got the perfect platform. They promise a significant number of socialist related benefits. You can go back and read the whole list, but it's the type of list that if you stood up in the US today and detailed the same list in 2017....probably half of the American public would easily identify and agree on this type of platform (something for nothing mentality).
Because of the weak nature of the Weimar Republic....it dissolves mostly into nothing, and the Nazis consume whatever is leftover. You can make hundreds of excuses, but Germany and it's various states wasn't prepared for this type of political apparatus.
In today's world.....when people hype some Hitler or Nazi threat....the thing you have to watch for is the idea or concept....is the hyper crowd anti-fascist or fascist in nature?
Typically, being a fascist means that you have a political philosophy or movement, that exhibits nationalism or special-interest group mentality that arise above the individual. To achieve their goals, they have to have things run by the central government with economic and social change actions directed at the general public....against the opposition. The problem in this case....have we wrapped up eight years of fascist-behavior or just started eight years of fascist-behavior?
You could sit for hours pondering this remarkable question. Who wears the white hats, and are they the anti-fascists or the fascists? In reality, back in the 1919 to 1932 period of Germany.....could one even say that the Nazis were the fascists? With the economic downfall after WW I and after the 1929 Wall Street crash....who was going to effect the rescue of the general German public? If you were the German public....you might find some logic in play to pick the least of the worst choices, and that might be the whole story to the Hitler hike to power.
So when you see some idiot journalist write some 80 line piece how Trumpism relates to Nazi takeover in Germany....you might want to look a lot deeper into the topic than the reporter did.
When Migration Hits the Brickwall
I sat and read through an interesting piece from German public-TV (ARD) which centered on the growing issue of dispersing migrants arriving in Europe.
In 2016, roughly 180,000 migrants, asylum-seekers and immigrants made their way on boats or rafts to Italian shores, or were picked up by rescue vessels in the Med.
What to do with the 180,000? Well....that's more or less an undetermined situation. Italy doesn't want to permanently accept them, and the efforts of the EU to force the other 27 different members to accept them....have been pushed back.
So, there is now a combined German-French effort on distribution of the asylum seekers.
Complicated? They want some type of complete 'unification' of the EU process. At the heart of this whole matter is this rule from the 2013 Dublin III agreement within the EU.....you apply for asylum, and are evaluated by that country that you apply in.....once accepted, fine....if failed, that's the end of your EU effort (none of the other 27 countries will evaluate you). A lot of asylum seekers realize this failure rate deal with various EU countries.....so they might view some countries (like Germany) in a more favorable light, and others like Hungary in a negative light.
Why this whole discussion is hyped up now? Well...there's this perception of a upswing of new arrivals coming in the early months of 2017. The suggestion by the ARD article? More than 180,000. They won't speculate beyond that point.
The German-French method to entice governments to cooperate? They want a fine created....in the range of 250,000 for each refugee NOT taken by a EU member. So the scenario would be....a group of 40 migrants are selected for Poland. Poland evaluates the group and says twenty of them have no ID or a fake ID, and they refuse to participate. The EU fine would be five-million Euro. Would Poland change it's mind because of the fine?
The problem you see in this is that you remove the authority of the individual nation and you end up with Brussels (or the EU mechanism) as the boss. The gut-feeling by a number of nations is that the EU becomes this German-French apparatus to herd the rest of Europe toward their agenda.
At some point in the summer of 2019, after the EU election, I would speculate that a fair turnover of EU members will occur, and a new agenda will be forced back upon the French-German contingent. Someone will suggest a doorway for asylum or migration, but you can only apply via your home country at some established EU office and having present a legit ID. Those showing language ability and some skillcraft/university degree....advance on.
The problem is that rescue efforts in the Med will continue, and as long as these boat-migrant operations continue....someone will be there to drag them onto Italian soil and play out the rescue game.
If you were looking for a problem that really burns at the heart of the EU now.....this particular subject fits into the top three issues (Greek financial instability is in that top group as well). You can sense that after that 2019 EU election....there's going to be some shift to occur, and it won't be a pro-immigration deal.....it'll go the other way.
In 2016, roughly 180,000 migrants, asylum-seekers and immigrants made their way on boats or rafts to Italian shores, or were picked up by rescue vessels in the Med.
What to do with the 180,000? Well....that's more or less an undetermined situation. Italy doesn't want to permanently accept them, and the efforts of the EU to force the other 27 different members to accept them....have been pushed back.
So, there is now a combined German-French effort on distribution of the asylum seekers.
Complicated? They want some type of complete 'unification' of the EU process. At the heart of this whole matter is this rule from the 2013 Dublin III agreement within the EU.....you apply for asylum, and are evaluated by that country that you apply in.....once accepted, fine....if failed, that's the end of your EU effort (none of the other 27 countries will evaluate you). A lot of asylum seekers realize this failure rate deal with various EU countries.....so they might view some countries (like Germany) in a more favorable light, and others like Hungary in a negative light.
Why this whole discussion is hyped up now? Well...there's this perception of a upswing of new arrivals coming in the early months of 2017. The suggestion by the ARD article? More than 180,000. They won't speculate beyond that point.
The German-French method to entice governments to cooperate? They want a fine created....in the range of 250,000 for each refugee NOT taken by a EU member. So the scenario would be....a group of 40 migrants are selected for Poland. Poland evaluates the group and says twenty of them have no ID or a fake ID, and they refuse to participate. The EU fine would be five-million Euro. Would Poland change it's mind because of the fine?
The problem you see in this is that you remove the authority of the individual nation and you end up with Brussels (or the EU mechanism) as the boss. The gut-feeling by a number of nations is that the EU becomes this German-French apparatus to herd the rest of Europe toward their agenda.
At some point in the summer of 2019, after the EU election, I would speculate that a fair turnover of EU members will occur, and a new agenda will be forced back upon the French-German contingent. Someone will suggest a doorway for asylum or migration, but you can only apply via your home country at some established EU office and having present a legit ID. Those showing language ability and some skillcraft/university degree....advance on.
The problem is that rescue efforts in the Med will continue, and as long as these boat-migrant operations continue....someone will be there to drag them onto Italian soil and play out the rescue game.
If you were looking for a problem that really burns at the heart of the EU now.....this particular subject fits into the top three issues (Greek financial instability is in that top group as well). You can sense that after that 2019 EU election....there's going to be some shift to occur, and it won't be a pro-immigration deal.....it'll go the other way.
Thursday, January 26, 2017
The Paragraph 16 Issue
Deep within the Basic Law of Germany (the Constitution)....there is section 16, which covers the right of asylum for any member of the EU, and all other countries. It is roughly 40 lines of legal wording which is defined by the political system to mean that you can apply for asylum as you fly into Germany, or after the fact.
Up until this 2013-era where immigration became a major topic of discussion....no one really harped on paragraph 16 or the definition of asylum application. On average, Germany for a number of years averaged around 250,000 to 300,000 folks who applied for the asylum deal. No one says much over each year's applicants and who passed or failed. There are a couple of years....like the Balkan War period, where the applications went up to 800,000 to 900,000 people seeking asylum. But the average tended to stay at 250,000.
The structure around the asylum procedure? Various temporary facilities existed and were immigration or asylum centers. You'd be brought into these, and apply. Your application typically took six week to review, and approve or disapprove. Most all of the structure was set to the 250,000 number, and Germans were capable of handling that in a normal year.
So when 2013 came, with the Syrian war, and various other groups from around the globe saw an open door in Germany.....the number went from 250,000 to 450,000 (2014) very easily. In 2015, the Germans originally said 1.1 million entered....later lessening the official number down to roughly 900,000 (don't ask them why the original number was thrown). For 2016....the number so far appears to be in the 300,000 to 350,000 range, but it may be lessened later as well.
What has arisen as a topic of discussion is that the paragraph 16 situation of the Basic Law does not have a limit (per year, let's say). A fair number of Germans (maybe more than a quarter of the population) now believe that the country does have a limit and there can't be an unlimited number to paragraph 16.
Changing the paragraph? It's something that the CDU, SPD, Green Party, and Linke Party refuse to really discuss. Even Chancellor Merkel has no desire to rewrite paragraph 16. The AfD Party? In their mind, no real change to Germany's immigration problem can occur or repair the problems, UNTIL you discuss and implement some change to paragraph 16, and insert a yearly limit.
The CSU Party out of Bavaria....the partner to Merkel's party? They'd like the 250,000 number to be inserted, and hint that if something doesn't occur with a limit.....they won't go with a consolidated vote deal with Merkel. She can still win without them....but the formation of the next government would create some interesting scenarios....none really positive.
You would think that some think-tank or university would sit down....analyze unemployment numbers, GDP, housing issues, impact of integration, and the economy.....to arrive at some magic number which would make sense to the intellectual crowd (the politicians and journalists). But no.....they don't seem to want to analyze that type of problem. One can only wonder why.
I sat this week and noted a number of televised (ARD) interviews conducted with locals in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW, northwest Germany). A lot of towns in this region have large significant numbers of immigrants that have flowed in. They also have unemployment numbers going from ten to fourteen percent. It's not spoken by the journalists, but you'd have the impression that no more additional migrants ought to be settled in this state of Germany for the next couple of years, until jobs start to appear.
One of the odd things that AfD is apparently doing as a platform item for the upcoming campaign period and election? Well....they want to talk about paragraph 16. They want to make it a daily topic and ensure that Germans read the paragraph and decide for themselves....if to press for the change.
Journalists could for the most part avoid chatting about paragraph 16, and just figure a couple of mentions via debates will be the most damage done. That tactic would work in a normal election year, prior to the internet. With Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter? Well....an orchestrated effort could bring that topic to twenty million Germans very easily. The chief question would be....who would blink first....Chancellor Merkel (CDU) or Martin Schultz (the new SPD Chancellor candidate)? Who would consume the bitter pill and acknowledge that a number will have to exist?
My bet is on Martin Schulz to suggest this. Oddly, he is a blunt and hard-core supporter of asylum and immigration....so there are literally hundreds of references of him speaking for migration and open-door access. It would look awful stupid....I admit, but if you really wanted to pick up ten percent of the vote over a very short period....some limit paragraph added to paragraph 16 would be a remarkable change for the whole situation.
My suggestion? I think the whole immigration thing ought to be divided into several categories. Category A would be for folks have trades, occupations, and degrees. If you have something to really offer Germany and it's economy....not just to flip burgers or stock shelves, then you ought to find a very accessible door. But it ought to be a case where you apply from your own country and face a eight-week review of your application. I might suggest in this case that a lot of educated Chinese or South Koreans might apply and shift things into a totally different direction.
I'd have other categories for Christians from Muslim countries, gays from oppressive societies, etc. But I'd limit this number each year....maybe 5,000. Maybe 10,000.
The war-time refugee crowd? I'd build up real long-term camps....fly the folks from their affected areas, and give them a two-year temp-visa.
For the large group of young men coming in with no real occupation or craft....I'd probably be blunt and just say that less than 5,000 a year would be accepted in this manner, and it serves no purpose to hike or walk to Germany.....if it's a 98-percent chance of failing the application process.
So as you sit and note political topics thrown left and right, and suddenly hear someone hyping up the Basic Law and paragraph 16.....you will understand the full discussion at hand. Some folks want it absolutely changed, and some folks want absolutely no change. Each will try to convince the public of the position.
Up until this 2013-era where immigration became a major topic of discussion....no one really harped on paragraph 16 or the definition of asylum application. On average, Germany for a number of years averaged around 250,000 to 300,000 folks who applied for the asylum deal. No one says much over each year's applicants and who passed or failed. There are a couple of years....like the Balkan War period, where the applications went up to 800,000 to 900,000 people seeking asylum. But the average tended to stay at 250,000.
The structure around the asylum procedure? Various temporary facilities existed and were immigration or asylum centers. You'd be brought into these, and apply. Your application typically took six week to review, and approve or disapprove. Most all of the structure was set to the 250,000 number, and Germans were capable of handling that in a normal year.
So when 2013 came, with the Syrian war, and various other groups from around the globe saw an open door in Germany.....the number went from 250,000 to 450,000 (2014) very easily. In 2015, the Germans originally said 1.1 million entered....later lessening the official number down to roughly 900,000 (don't ask them why the original number was thrown). For 2016....the number so far appears to be in the 300,000 to 350,000 range, but it may be lessened later as well.
What has arisen as a topic of discussion is that the paragraph 16 situation of the Basic Law does not have a limit (per year, let's say). A fair number of Germans (maybe more than a quarter of the population) now believe that the country does have a limit and there can't be an unlimited number to paragraph 16.
Changing the paragraph? It's something that the CDU, SPD, Green Party, and Linke Party refuse to really discuss. Even Chancellor Merkel has no desire to rewrite paragraph 16. The AfD Party? In their mind, no real change to Germany's immigration problem can occur or repair the problems, UNTIL you discuss and implement some change to paragraph 16, and insert a yearly limit.
The CSU Party out of Bavaria....the partner to Merkel's party? They'd like the 250,000 number to be inserted, and hint that if something doesn't occur with a limit.....they won't go with a consolidated vote deal with Merkel. She can still win without them....but the formation of the next government would create some interesting scenarios....none really positive.
You would think that some think-tank or university would sit down....analyze unemployment numbers, GDP, housing issues, impact of integration, and the economy.....to arrive at some magic number which would make sense to the intellectual crowd (the politicians and journalists). But no.....they don't seem to want to analyze that type of problem. One can only wonder why.
I sat this week and noted a number of televised (ARD) interviews conducted with locals in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW, northwest Germany). A lot of towns in this region have large significant numbers of immigrants that have flowed in. They also have unemployment numbers going from ten to fourteen percent. It's not spoken by the journalists, but you'd have the impression that no more additional migrants ought to be settled in this state of Germany for the next couple of years, until jobs start to appear.
One of the odd things that AfD is apparently doing as a platform item for the upcoming campaign period and election? Well....they want to talk about paragraph 16. They want to make it a daily topic and ensure that Germans read the paragraph and decide for themselves....if to press for the change.
Journalists could for the most part avoid chatting about paragraph 16, and just figure a couple of mentions via debates will be the most damage done. That tactic would work in a normal election year, prior to the internet. With Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter? Well....an orchestrated effort could bring that topic to twenty million Germans very easily. The chief question would be....who would blink first....Chancellor Merkel (CDU) or Martin Schultz (the new SPD Chancellor candidate)? Who would consume the bitter pill and acknowledge that a number will have to exist?
My bet is on Martin Schulz to suggest this. Oddly, he is a blunt and hard-core supporter of asylum and immigration....so there are literally hundreds of references of him speaking for migration and open-door access. It would look awful stupid....I admit, but if you really wanted to pick up ten percent of the vote over a very short period....some limit paragraph added to paragraph 16 would be a remarkable change for the whole situation.
My suggestion? I think the whole immigration thing ought to be divided into several categories. Category A would be for folks have trades, occupations, and degrees. If you have something to really offer Germany and it's economy....not just to flip burgers or stock shelves, then you ought to find a very accessible door. But it ought to be a case where you apply from your own country and face a eight-week review of your application. I might suggest in this case that a lot of educated Chinese or South Koreans might apply and shift things into a totally different direction.
I'd have other categories for Christians from Muslim countries, gays from oppressive societies, etc. But I'd limit this number each year....maybe 5,000. Maybe 10,000.
The war-time refugee crowd? I'd build up real long-term camps....fly the folks from their affected areas, and give them a two-year temp-visa.
For the large group of young men coming in with no real occupation or craft....I'd probably be blunt and just say that less than 5,000 a year would be accepted in this manner, and it serves no purpose to hike or walk to Germany.....if it's a 98-percent chance of failing the application process.
So as you sit and note political topics thrown left and right, and suddenly hear someone hyping up the Basic Law and paragraph 16.....you will understand the full discussion at hand. Some folks want it absolutely changed, and some folks want absolutely no change. Each will try to convince the public of the position.
The More Cops Story
There is a piece out of the daily German newspaper BILD that I picked up today....over the future of German cops.
Germans are mostly happy over adding 1,270 more cops to the federal police force. But one insider commented on how this translates.
They cut the body size requirement. It used to be that for a woman....you needed to be a minimum of 1.63 meters tall. For a guy.....1.65 meters tall. That requirement was thrown out. Chief problem....recruitment over the past couple of years has started to become a problem.
The other change? You used to have maintained a "3" in German and math for your final year of school. Now? A "4". A three translates to something between a "B" and "C" in the American school system. The four is a step below that.
What the insider suggests is that bad decisions will come out of this new crowd. Evidence to prove the point? It doesn't exist. But people think this.
The same type of recruitment issue exists for the German military as well, and they are modifying things to meet their goals.
After years of living around the German atmosphere, the police presence is one of those things that you notice and you appreciate. German cops rarely make stupid mistakes.....they rarely go aggressive with the gun....they rarely cite non-existent laws....they rarely screw-up. Germans don't have that type of appreciation.....having never messed up around with US cops. On any given day in America, you could be in some stupid confrontation with a cop....whose soul reason that he has the job is that he's a cousin of Sheriff such-and-such.....not that he is clever or bright enough for the job.
Maybe more cops are necessary to filter out the crime present now.....but you have to wonder if the situation is also creating new and additional problems for the decade ahead.
Germans are mostly happy over adding 1,270 more cops to the federal police force. But one insider commented on how this translates.
They cut the body size requirement. It used to be that for a woman....you needed to be a minimum of 1.63 meters tall. For a guy.....1.65 meters tall. That requirement was thrown out. Chief problem....recruitment over the past couple of years has started to become a problem.
The other change? You used to have maintained a "3" in German and math for your final year of school. Now? A "4". A three translates to something between a "B" and "C" in the American school system. The four is a step below that.
What the insider suggests is that bad decisions will come out of this new crowd. Evidence to prove the point? It doesn't exist. But people think this.
The same type of recruitment issue exists for the German military as well, and they are modifying things to meet their goals.
After years of living around the German atmosphere, the police presence is one of those things that you notice and you appreciate. German cops rarely make stupid mistakes.....they rarely go aggressive with the gun....they rarely cite non-existent laws....they rarely screw-up. Germans don't have that type of appreciation.....having never messed up around with US cops. On any given day in America, you could be in some stupid confrontation with a cop....whose soul reason that he has the job is that he's a cousin of Sheriff such-and-such.....not that he is clever or bright enough for the job.
Maybe more cops are necessary to filter out the crime present now.....but you have to wonder if the situation is also creating new and additional problems for the decade ahead.
Wednesday, January 25, 2017
NRW on a Wild Ride
Last night came state-run/public TV's Frontal 21 show. It's a news documentary show where they go and dig deep into news. The topic for ten minutes? The news team went to North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) and looked at the perception of locals over the upcoming election. It's scheduled for late spring.
A lot of things have changed since the last NRW state election in 2012. The SPD Party had been able to capture 39-percent of the vote....easily beating the CDU Party at 26-percent.
So they went to ordinary working-class people and various towns throughout the region. Trouble is brewing....big-time.
The three towns visited? The team noted the unemployment rate in each....now drifting between 10 and 14 percent. They found various older guys who are marginally making it and seething with anger over limited jobs and no real income change. They found guys who were unemployed in their mid-50's and had zero chance to locate another job. They found a general public angry over incoming migrants, the amount of state-money thrown at them, and here was the lower-income German who needed help but couldn't get it.
The message? There's this massive loss of votes factor being figured up for NRW's state election. There's virtually no possibility that the SPD can reach the 39-percent again.
I went and looked at the last two polls done (one in the past week, and the other at the end of October of last year). What the poll data shows is that the SPD is resting here at the beginning of the campaign period with roughly 30-to-32 percent of public. The CDU is at virtually the same level. AfD? They are sitting at roughly 10-percent.
Unlike American poll efforts which went off and screwed up in 2016.....you typically don't see German polling organization miss the number by more than one-percent. There are exceptions, I admit....but it's awful rare.
There's roughly a hundred and twenty-odd days between now and 14 May (election day). Campaign efforts will step up a notch, and get fairly heated. With new leadership nationally for the SPD, they might be able to just slide up a point, and maybe marginally win this election.
The effect of the AfD? There's this odd thing I noticed from the Frontal 21 episode and the interviews they did on the street. As they found and talked to former SPD voters (life-long voters, I should note).....all were angry and frustrated. All were going to vote for AfD, as a frustration-vote.
This frustration thing that I've continually chatted upon for the past year or two....is a driving factor for AfD. People aren't really asking a lot of questions or digging deep into the AfD material or platforms. They don't care. AfD is simply a message to both the CDU and SPD....that's how the public is viewing the situation.
The odds of AfD going past the 15-percent point in NRW? There is a former SPD political figure from NRW who stood up and walked away from the SPD.....and today is a AfD member. If the public-TV sector does debates, and this one AfD guy does the talking....harping on lack of jobs and disgruntled voters....he's bound to pick up another percent or two from each debate. If I were the CDU or SPD Party in NRW.....I'd limit myself to one single debate, and hope that the news media just doesn't give this guy a chance to speak.
The big issue from this one single state election? It's the last state election prior to the federal election in late September. It has a major impact if the SPD loses....if the AfD were to cross some unexpected 18-percent point, or if the CDU were to reach some fantastic 35-percent win.
As for fixing the NRW economic problem? Don't expect much out of this election, and I'd expect the disgruntled voter trend to continue through to 2022 (the next state election). The AfD will still be around, and more disgruntled voters will be added to the list.
A lot of things have changed since the last NRW state election in 2012. The SPD Party had been able to capture 39-percent of the vote....easily beating the CDU Party at 26-percent.
So they went to ordinary working-class people and various towns throughout the region. Trouble is brewing....big-time.
The three towns visited? The team noted the unemployment rate in each....now drifting between 10 and 14 percent. They found various older guys who are marginally making it and seething with anger over limited jobs and no real income change. They found guys who were unemployed in their mid-50's and had zero chance to locate another job. They found a general public angry over incoming migrants, the amount of state-money thrown at them, and here was the lower-income German who needed help but couldn't get it.
The message? There's this massive loss of votes factor being figured up for NRW's state election. There's virtually no possibility that the SPD can reach the 39-percent again.
I went and looked at the last two polls done (one in the past week, and the other at the end of October of last year). What the poll data shows is that the SPD is resting here at the beginning of the campaign period with roughly 30-to-32 percent of public. The CDU is at virtually the same level. AfD? They are sitting at roughly 10-percent.
Unlike American poll efforts which went off and screwed up in 2016.....you typically don't see German polling organization miss the number by more than one-percent. There are exceptions, I admit....but it's awful rare.
There's roughly a hundred and twenty-odd days between now and 14 May (election day). Campaign efforts will step up a notch, and get fairly heated. With new leadership nationally for the SPD, they might be able to just slide up a point, and maybe marginally win this election.
The effect of the AfD? There's this odd thing I noticed from the Frontal 21 episode and the interviews they did on the street. As they found and talked to former SPD voters (life-long voters, I should note).....all were angry and frustrated. All were going to vote for AfD, as a frustration-vote.
This frustration thing that I've continually chatted upon for the past year or two....is a driving factor for AfD. People aren't really asking a lot of questions or digging deep into the AfD material or platforms. They don't care. AfD is simply a message to both the CDU and SPD....that's how the public is viewing the situation.
The odds of AfD going past the 15-percent point in NRW? There is a former SPD political figure from NRW who stood up and walked away from the SPD.....and today is a AfD member. If the public-TV sector does debates, and this one AfD guy does the talking....harping on lack of jobs and disgruntled voters....he's bound to pick up another percent or two from each debate. If I were the CDU or SPD Party in NRW.....I'd limit myself to one single debate, and hope that the news media just doesn't give this guy a chance to speak.
The big issue from this one single state election? It's the last state election prior to the federal election in late September. It has a major impact if the SPD loses....if the AfD were to cross some unexpected 18-percent point, or if the CDU were to reach some fantastic 35-percent win.
As for fixing the NRW economic problem? Don't expect much out of this election, and I'd expect the disgruntled voter trend to continue through to 2022 (the next state election). The AfD will still be around, and more disgruntled voters will be added to the list.
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Germans and Identity Cards
For decades, Germans have had laws and enforcement of a public ID card. You can go and read up on this via Article Four at the German Justice Ministry.
It's a simplistic law. Upon reaching 16 years old....you are mandated to have a national ID card.
If asked to present the ID, by any government authority (the cops, the Justice Department, the vote clerks, the customs people, the grocery clerk noting you are buying smokes or beer, or the city hall clerks)....then you must present the ID.
The Germans who are waivered out of this? It's a very small group. If you are a permanent resident of some mental facility or old folks home....you don't have to keep the card. If you are living in a situation with a guardian presiding over you.....you don't have to carry the card. If you have some kind of serious disability where you have to have someone travel with you.....you don't have to carry the card. Otherwise, it's something that Germans maintain on their person 24 hours a day.
Odds of having multiple cards? Zero. At least that's the strong belief of the public.
What info exists on the card? Your full name (to include your name before your marriage), you doctoral degree (don't ask....doctors seem to want everyone to know their status), date of birth with your place of birth, a photograph (something recent), a signature, you height but oddly NOT your weight, your eye color, your address, citizenship, a serial number, and your religious name or 'Hollywood' name (this covers Cardinal Joe or Gina-Gina-Gina).
Cards are valid for a ten-year period....although if you are under 24 years old....it's for six years at a time.
Effective outside of Germany? Well....you can use this to travel to any EU country. If you go beyond the EU country scheme.....you need a real passport.
Cost of the card? It's roughly 30 Euro.
Ninety-nine percent of Germans will go through their life without any problems with this ID card business. Typically, the biggest of the violations are failing to present the ID if requested, or failing to update the card (like you got married and use another name).
So why does this work in Germany but not in the US? There is this odd perception of governmental control in the US and that duplication would be a massive problem. When you look at the one-ID system, it concretes down the German voting system and ensures virtually no fraud makes it into the system.
It's a simplistic law. Upon reaching 16 years old....you are mandated to have a national ID card.
If asked to present the ID, by any government authority (the cops, the Justice Department, the vote clerks, the customs people, the grocery clerk noting you are buying smokes or beer, or the city hall clerks)....then you must present the ID.
The Germans who are waivered out of this? It's a very small group. If you are a permanent resident of some mental facility or old folks home....you don't have to keep the card. If you are living in a situation with a guardian presiding over you.....you don't have to carry the card. If you have some kind of serious disability where you have to have someone travel with you.....you don't have to carry the card. Otherwise, it's something that Germans maintain on their person 24 hours a day.
Odds of having multiple cards? Zero. At least that's the strong belief of the public.
What info exists on the card? Your full name (to include your name before your marriage), you doctoral degree (don't ask....doctors seem to want everyone to know their status), date of birth with your place of birth, a photograph (something recent), a signature, you height but oddly NOT your weight, your eye color, your address, citizenship, a serial number, and your religious name or 'Hollywood' name (this covers Cardinal Joe or Gina-Gina-Gina).
Cards are valid for a ten-year period....although if you are under 24 years old....it's for six years at a time.
Effective outside of Germany? Well....you can use this to travel to any EU country. If you go beyond the EU country scheme.....you need a real passport.
Cost of the card? It's roughly 30 Euro.
Ninety-nine percent of Germans will go through their life without any problems with this ID card business. Typically, the biggest of the violations are failing to present the ID if requested, or failing to update the card (like you got married and use another name).
So why does this work in Germany but not in the US? There is this odd perception of governmental control in the US and that duplication would be a massive problem. When you look at the one-ID system, it concretes down the German voting system and ensures virtually no fraud makes it into the system.
The 750 Story
It doesn't get discussed much....at least with the common German. The German news media might have mentioned it a couple of times in the past year, but it's rare.
After the September federal election in Germany....the Bundestag (the Congress) will reshape itself from 630 members....to 750 members. Additional cost? Focus put up a piece today and suggested that the cost is around 120 million Euro more on the government.
The necessity to add on 120 extra members? It's not something that is readily explained. You can dig around through forty-odd news items and it's simply noted as something passed....without much discussion....and no one can stop this until after the 750 members are sitting.
For me, the curious question is where the extra 120 folks would sit in the 'big' room. Journalists tend to say that enough seats can be added and the 750 will all fit into that massive room. The office space required? Well....that's another topic. The government will have to procure at least one significant-sized building and flip it into Bundestag member office space.
What is quietly said that various new committees will come out of this deal....which means more political chatter over new committees investigating topics in the name of fixing broken things. What committees? Unknown. There'll probably be a committee on beer-purity. They might even have one committee to just permanently truth-commission VW on diesel engines.
How did they arrive at the magic number of 750? No one says that part of the story. It's a nice round number and maybe Merkel just said that a couple of years ago and no one ever challenged it.
More representation for the citizens of Germany? Well....yeah. But most would tell you presently that the Berlin crowd are mostly out-of-touch with common regular Germans, as it is presently....so how would another 120 extra folks fix this?
The pay scale for Bundestag members? It's just over the 9,000 Euro per month point. Toss on travel pay, an allowance for quarters in Berlin, and a office allowance, and it's probably near 12,000 Euro a month for each member.
What I suspect will happen? From 2017 to 2021 will be an awful long period, with continuing public frustration in Germany over various topics, and a desire for some massive change to likely come by 2021. The Merkel-led government will not find any long list of solutions for the general public. Some political party (it won't be either the CDU or SPD) will make downsizing the Bundestag a major priority by 2021. My guess is that they will suggest going to roughly 500 members. And this suggestion will attract a number of voters.
After the September federal election in Germany....the Bundestag (the Congress) will reshape itself from 630 members....to 750 members. Additional cost? Focus put up a piece today and suggested that the cost is around 120 million Euro more on the government.
The necessity to add on 120 extra members? It's not something that is readily explained. You can dig around through forty-odd news items and it's simply noted as something passed....without much discussion....and no one can stop this until after the 750 members are sitting.
For me, the curious question is where the extra 120 folks would sit in the 'big' room. Journalists tend to say that enough seats can be added and the 750 will all fit into that massive room. The office space required? Well....that's another topic. The government will have to procure at least one significant-sized building and flip it into Bundestag member office space.
What is quietly said that various new committees will come out of this deal....which means more political chatter over new committees investigating topics in the name of fixing broken things. What committees? Unknown. There'll probably be a committee on beer-purity. They might even have one committee to just permanently truth-commission VW on diesel engines.
How did they arrive at the magic number of 750? No one says that part of the story. It's a nice round number and maybe Merkel just said that a couple of years ago and no one ever challenged it.
More representation for the citizens of Germany? Well....yeah. But most would tell you presently that the Berlin crowd are mostly out-of-touch with common regular Germans, as it is presently....so how would another 120 extra folks fix this?
The pay scale for Bundestag members? It's just over the 9,000 Euro per month point. Toss on travel pay, an allowance for quarters in Berlin, and a office allowance, and it's probably near 12,000 Euro a month for each member.
What I suspect will happen? From 2017 to 2021 will be an awful long period, with continuing public frustration in Germany over various topics, and a desire for some massive change to likely come by 2021. The Merkel-led government will not find any long list of solutions for the general public. Some political party (it won't be either the CDU or SPD) will make downsizing the Bundestag a major priority by 2021. My guess is that they will suggest going to roughly 500 members. And this suggestion will attract a number of voters.
Monday, January 23, 2017
Wolves Moving to Top Tier of Forums
I sat and watched about 15 minutes of Hart Aber Fair...the state-run/public-TV program on ARD here in Germany. It's their Monday night forum on 'hot' topics in the German news.
Last night? Oddly, they spent most of the show chatting on German wolves.
Yeah, just plain regular wolves, which are making a come-back in the rural regions of Germany. As you can imagine, there are the pro-wolf people and the anti-wolf people (the Red Riding Hood crowd, as I will refer to them).
They actually assembled a decent group of experts on this wolf issue. But you just sit there and think about the forty-odd problems that frustrate Germans today, and if you mentioned wolves to some middle-class working-class group of Germans....it wouldn't rate even in their top three-hundred issues. For environmentalists? Well, they might put it near the top five problems facing Germany.
It's a pretty simple discussion. Wolves were hunted out and laid to rest probably about a hundred years ago. All this Red Riding Hood worry-business disappeared by the end of the 1800s. What people could generally say was that wolves represented a serious threat to farmers by attacking their sheep, cattle, etc. A pack of wolves could go through some valley and seriously damage the local economy over a one-month period.
The wolf experts tend to say that wolves made their comeback.....perhaps in the 1960s as hunting was controlled, but really took off after the Wall came down. I noticed last week a mention that suburbs around Paris are now reporting sightings of wolves. The pro-wolf crowd wants the trend to continue. So they got plenty of chat time nationally with this forum on Hart Aber Fair.
My sense? All of this will continue on....until one day, some 'bad' wolf goes and drags some two-year-old German kid from some backyard....off into the woods. Then wolves will return to the bad animal list and the big hunt will start back up. Course, this is probably twenty years in the future. Just my two cents on the topic.
Last night? Oddly, they spent most of the show chatting on German wolves.
Yeah, just plain regular wolves, which are making a come-back in the rural regions of Germany. As you can imagine, there are the pro-wolf people and the anti-wolf people (the Red Riding Hood crowd, as I will refer to them).
They actually assembled a decent group of experts on this wolf issue. But you just sit there and think about the forty-odd problems that frustrate Germans today, and if you mentioned wolves to some middle-class working-class group of Germans....it wouldn't rate even in their top three-hundred issues. For environmentalists? Well, they might put it near the top five problems facing Germany.
It's a pretty simple discussion. Wolves were hunted out and laid to rest probably about a hundred years ago. All this Red Riding Hood worry-business disappeared by the end of the 1800s. What people could generally say was that wolves represented a serious threat to farmers by attacking their sheep, cattle, etc. A pack of wolves could go through some valley and seriously damage the local economy over a one-month period.
The wolf experts tend to say that wolves made their comeback.....perhaps in the 1960s as hunting was controlled, but really took off after the Wall came down. I noticed last week a mention that suburbs around Paris are now reporting sightings of wolves. The pro-wolf crowd wants the trend to continue. So they got plenty of chat time nationally with this forum on Hart Aber Fair.
My sense? All of this will continue on....until one day, some 'bad' wolf goes and drags some two-year-old German kid from some backyard....off into the woods. Then wolves will return to the bad animal list and the big hunt will start back up. Course, this is probably twenty years in the future. Just my two cents on the topic.
This Brandenberg Poll Story
For those who aren't aware....Brandenberg is one of Germany's sixteen states....kinda surrounding Berlin which is a state by itself. Population of the state? 2.3 million people. If you drive around the region, what you'd generally say is that it's mostly a rural area, with Potsdam and Cottbus as it's principal cities (note: Potsdam has 160,000 people).
I bring Potsdam up today because the Forsa Polling Institute went out and did regional polling. It's not really worth doing and I'd question why it's of any value. They had their state election in 2014, and they are still a fair distance away from the next one (2019).
The results of this poll? Well....it's an odd thing.
The CDU can still count on 30-percent of the public support, if an election were held tomorrow. Oddly, the SPD folks have fallen to 19-percent....in third place. The Linke Party? They'd slipped to 16-percent. So, who took up the gains here? AfD, with 20-percent.
AfD is now sitting at second place in Brandenberg state polling. A huge change from two years ago.
What Die Welt reported (the source of the story) is that this is making political folks take second looks around other states because this general story of AfD being at 12-to-14 percent nationally might not be that reliable.
Nationally, it's hard to judge how people are looking at the fall election. You could have Germans who are being asked how they would vote, and they might just say the standard answer.....but secretly admit that they are frustrated with both the CDU and SPD. Course, if you asked them about AfD's solution to the various issues....well, that's not really that clear. They'd just like to vote AGAINST the current crowd in Berlin...in a way to use Jon Gnarr-effect and say something.
But my last question is this....with no local election until the fall of 2019, it would seem odd that you'd go and do something like this poll. Why do it unless you (the poll organization) wanted to make a message as well?
I bring Potsdam up today because the Forsa Polling Institute went out and did regional polling. It's not really worth doing and I'd question why it's of any value. They had their state election in 2014, and they are still a fair distance away from the next one (2019).
The results of this poll? Well....it's an odd thing.
The CDU can still count on 30-percent of the public support, if an election were held tomorrow. Oddly, the SPD folks have fallen to 19-percent....in third place. The Linke Party? They'd slipped to 16-percent. So, who took up the gains here? AfD, with 20-percent.
AfD is now sitting at second place in Brandenberg state polling. A huge change from two years ago.
What Die Welt reported (the source of the story) is that this is making political folks take second looks around other states because this general story of AfD being at 12-to-14 percent nationally might not be that reliable.
Nationally, it's hard to judge how people are looking at the fall election. You could have Germans who are being asked how they would vote, and they might just say the standard answer.....but secretly admit that they are frustrated with both the CDU and SPD. Course, if you asked them about AfD's solution to the various issues....well, that's not really that clear. They'd just like to vote AGAINST the current crowd in Berlin...in a way to use Jon Gnarr-effect and say something.
But my last question is this....with no local election until the fall of 2019, it would seem odd that you'd go and do something like this poll. Why do it unless you (the poll organization) wanted to make a message as well?
Dealing with People
If you read through various German news sources over the weekend, Chancellor Merkel and her staff are reviewing various archive, interviews and video of Donald Trump....to figure out how to approach and influence him.
You would have thought that two months ago, this would have started up. Now doing this at the last minute prior to her trip to DC?
Part of this issue is that most of the German leadership out of Berlin don't see President Trump as an intellectual. With President Obama, it was different in that he was an intellectual (at least they hint that).
One of the odd features or perceptions that people generally have now is that Berlin (or the Bundestag membership) are now self-identifying as intellectuals. Being an intellectual.....often means that non-intellectuals aren't thinking or talking at your level. The two groups often can't communicate with each other.
Prior to the 1990s....I have my doubts that this issue existed, as the capital resided in Bonn....NOT Berlin.
If you've ever been to Bonn (population of 310,000)....you'd generally say that it's a pleasant town with some decent landscape, historic buildings, and a very limited intellectual 'umbrella'. As the Bundestag sat there.....folks tended to come in and do their business....and on weekends....go back home.
When this topic of moving the capital came up in 1991....it wasn't exactly a simple vote (338 to 320). A fair number of people felt that Berlin would have a significant cost factor, and that Bonn had certain pluses. The Kohl-government at the time was able to bundle up all the votes and ensure the move would occur.
What you end up with in Berlin is a major metropolitan city (3.5 million). Art, fashion, design, culture, culinary science, wine, literature and intellectualism are deeply tied into the city. When some Bundestag member wraps up his day....he can associate with intellectuals in his off-time, and sip coffee with doctor-so-and-so, or attend some cinema film from some 1960s Swedish director.
You end up with a lot of individuals who have intellectualized themselves into a corner.
What Chancellor Merkel and her staff will likely discover in the end? Trump talks business, numbers and statistics. Something is either working, or it's failing. Trump will likely bring up various business inner-workings that most intellectuals aren't aware of. Trump will talk taxes, and how companies (even German companies) cheat on taxes. Trump will talk about how people go and hide money, to avoid taxation. All of these things are typically concepts that intellectuals don't get heavily involved with or tend to easily grasp.
It'll be a remarkable meeting in the end. Trump and Merkel.
You would have thought that two months ago, this would have started up. Now doing this at the last minute prior to her trip to DC?
Part of this issue is that most of the German leadership out of Berlin don't see President Trump as an intellectual. With President Obama, it was different in that he was an intellectual (at least they hint that).
One of the odd features or perceptions that people generally have now is that Berlin (or the Bundestag membership) are now self-identifying as intellectuals. Being an intellectual.....often means that non-intellectuals aren't thinking or talking at your level. The two groups often can't communicate with each other.
Prior to the 1990s....I have my doubts that this issue existed, as the capital resided in Bonn....NOT Berlin.
If you've ever been to Bonn (population of 310,000)....you'd generally say that it's a pleasant town with some decent landscape, historic buildings, and a very limited intellectual 'umbrella'. As the Bundestag sat there.....folks tended to come in and do their business....and on weekends....go back home.
When this topic of moving the capital came up in 1991....it wasn't exactly a simple vote (338 to 320). A fair number of people felt that Berlin would have a significant cost factor, and that Bonn had certain pluses. The Kohl-government at the time was able to bundle up all the votes and ensure the move would occur.
What you end up with in Berlin is a major metropolitan city (3.5 million). Art, fashion, design, culture, culinary science, wine, literature and intellectualism are deeply tied into the city. When some Bundestag member wraps up his day....he can associate with intellectuals in his off-time, and sip coffee with doctor-so-and-so, or attend some cinema film from some 1960s Swedish director.
You end up with a lot of individuals who have intellectualized themselves into a corner.
What Chancellor Merkel and her staff will likely discover in the end? Trump talks business, numbers and statistics. Something is either working, or it's failing. Trump will likely bring up various business inner-workings that most intellectuals aren't aware of. Trump will talk taxes, and how companies (even German companies) cheat on taxes. Trump will talk about how people go and hide money, to avoid taxation. All of these things are typically concepts that intellectuals don't get heavily involved with or tend to easily grasp.
It'll be a remarkable meeting in the end. Trump and Merkel.
Sunday, January 22, 2017
My "Keine Ahnung" Story
I sat this afternoon and was listening to a local Hessen FM network station (public folks, not the commercial side). They ran some call-in show where you could win something for answering ten questions. I should note....on public networks....it's generally something like 250 Euro max that you could win. They aren't getting a lot of cash to do otherwise.
So, this young gal called in and was the participant. I would guess her age, by her voice....somewhere between 18 and 25 years old.
Question three came up.....who is the newest American president?
For six months, Trump's name has come up almost daily on radio, TV, and been on the front page of most newspapers at least 200 times. In the past six weeks....it's been emphasized on 8PM national news, and the 9:45PM national news as well. It's been mostly negative slants, but it's awful hard for anyone to miss this.
The answer from the young gal? "Keine ahnung." Simply translated? No idea. She absolutely didn't know Trump was the new American president.
I brought this up with my German wife (she generally always HAS an opinion on matters). Yeah, she said....it's that small group of Germans...that don't watch the nightly news...don't read Bild (the daily newspaper)....and only listen to the radio for entertainment purposes. I noticed about ten years ago at some school event with my son (he was in a German school), that several of the young ladies and young men in the group had more or less zero interest in anything of news beyond entertainment.
Clueless Germans? I've often noted the same issue in the US, that two or three percent of society (my humble number) really aren't in-tuned with reality around them. These are the folks who don't follow politics....basically work a hard forty-hour week....couldn't answer basic questions about the capital of their state, who the governor is, or who the vice-president is.
The sad thing about this is that some public TV director might have been listening and now thinks that they need to double up on Trump news (negative of course) because there's way too many clueless Germans out there and it's the moral obligation to make sure Germans aren't clueless. The clueless Germans? They'd just like for more music to be played, and lessen all this news stuff. It's fairly uncomplicated in their life, and they'd like to keep it that way.
So, this young gal called in and was the participant. I would guess her age, by her voice....somewhere between 18 and 25 years old.
Question three came up.....who is the newest American president?
For six months, Trump's name has come up almost daily on radio, TV, and been on the front page of most newspapers at least 200 times. In the past six weeks....it's been emphasized on 8PM national news, and the 9:45PM national news as well. It's been mostly negative slants, but it's awful hard for anyone to miss this.
The answer from the young gal? "Keine ahnung." Simply translated? No idea. She absolutely didn't know Trump was the new American president.
I brought this up with my German wife (she generally always HAS an opinion on matters). Yeah, she said....it's that small group of Germans...that don't watch the nightly news...don't read Bild (the daily newspaper)....and only listen to the radio for entertainment purposes. I noticed about ten years ago at some school event with my son (he was in a German school), that several of the young ladies and young men in the group had more or less zero interest in anything of news beyond entertainment.
Clueless Germans? I've often noted the same issue in the US, that two or three percent of society (my humble number) really aren't in-tuned with reality around them. These are the folks who don't follow politics....basically work a hard forty-hour week....couldn't answer basic questions about the capital of their state, who the governor is, or who the vice-president is.
The sad thing about this is that some public TV director might have been listening and now thinks that they need to double up on Trump news (negative of course) because there's way too many clueless Germans out there and it's the moral obligation to make sure Germans aren't clueless. The clueless Germans? They'd just like for more music to be played, and lessen all this news stuff. It's fairly uncomplicated in their life, and they'd like to keep it that way.
The Allure of Iceland
I'm not a paid travel consultant for Iceland....nor do I write copy for the travel section of the New York Times....nor do I have stock in any Icelandic tour agency operation. However, I do occasionally hype up Iceland as a vacation possibility.
First, let's be clear about my version of Iceland....it being a place that you visit from early June until late August. For the remaining nine months of the year, I would probably discount Iceland from my trip lists. I'm a summer-only Iceland enthusiast.
Second, when you go to Iceland....it's not really for man-made stuff. In all of Iceland....I can only think of five man-made places worth seeing, and all five deserve an hour maximum each. I'd put the main church in Reykjavik (Hallgrimskirkja) on the top of the man-made things to see. I'd probably also put the new opera hall in Reykjavik on the list, but don't count on operas running seven days a week there. The Arbear Museum on the southside of Reykjavik is some time and represents the old culture of the island. Of course, the Blue Lagoon on the far west corner is worth a visit, although I wouldn't necessary go and soak myself in the sulfur-filled waters. Finally, the Perlan in Reykjavik might be worth a brief stop (it's a combination observatory, coffee shop, and great look-out point across the bulk of the city).
Over a five-year period, I used Icelandic Air on various occasions crossing the Atlantic. I'd land at Keflavik, spend a brief hour exiting the plane, admiring the glaciers in the distance, sip a Coke at the lounge, and board the next plane for the remainder of the trip. Each trip brought me one step closer to some actual vacation. So in 2016, I spent the week in Iceland.
To be honest, if you were going to do the entire isle tour and circle the place on Route One....you'd need fourteen to sixteen days.
You don't go to Iceland for beach resort tanning experiences, partying or drunken binges (like Ibiza), cultural exchanges (like sipping wine at the Louvre and remarking on brush-strokes), or admiring fortress/castle design. You also don't go to Iceland for gourmet menu choices, Icelandic-made wine, or to hear great classical music (other than that Bjork babe, the crazed Mugison, or new group Of Monsters and Men).
Mostly, you go to Iceland to recover from something, that's my humble feeling.
It's hard to find some remote corner of Earth where there is an enchantment over mostly nothing. Oh, there are glaciers, lava fields, big open valleys with ponies running with the wind, waterfalls that take your breathe away, and narrow winding roads that seem to enchant and seduce you (as will the ditches and wild turns). Those silly Icelanders will even put up signs to advise that these approaching roads are marginal, dangerous, and 'impassable' (meaning you shouldn't advance)....then you....on some stupid thought....see no blockage or chain across the road, and continue on.....asking for risk....maybe even begging for risk.
You might stop occasionally at some cheap diner by the road and have a chat with the locals. There are amazed anyone would want to come to Iceland....there's not much there to see, at least that's how the local guy would state the fact. A Mayberry-like story would be woven by the Icelander....giving just a bit of dry humor.
After a while, you notice there's no gang activity. There's a lack of no-go areas....to the extent that all of Iceland is a must-go area. Crime is mostly non-existent. There are no wild left-wing or right-wing extremists. Revolutionaries are just about non-existent. And if you were intending to be a homeless guy there....the first winter would wipe out that career choice.
There are three famous Icelandic comedy shows: Naeturvaktin (2007, 12 episodes), Dagvaktin (2008, 11 episodes) and Fangavaktin (2009, 7 episodes). The three revolve around three misfit Icelandic guys who originally meet up in the first year to work at a gas station on the outskirts of nowhere. There's the young guy with forty different psychological issues and probably should be permanently heavily-medicated. There's the Stalinist-Marxist manager guy who is a one-star threat to civilization. And then there's this guy without much common sense or intelligence but always appears to be sixty seconds away from remarkable success (if any of his ideas would ever work). The three series tie the three characters loosely together and in remarkable spirals. The last year is where two of the gentlemen have graduated to the Icelandic prison system and their friend comes often to visit them. For some reason, the humor from the three series sticks with me.
This is this charisma about Iceland. It's like some last frontier. The Vikings are long gone, and the locals are left with a bad taste of bankers after the 2008 collapse. Yet you stand around....admire the lava fields....gaze off into the distance at the glaciers....and watch the waves pound the shore. You walk into a local Icelandic pub....to sip down Egils Gull or Kaldi beer.....admiring the fake Icelandic waitress (she's from the UK)....and come to note the locals around the bar are really just tourists like you.
You'd like to hang out with Icelanders but never seem to be able to find any.
The 23 hours of sunshine in July? Oddly, this only comes up as a problem as you approach midnight, and awaken at 2AM to see the sun starting to rise. You question your clock and spend two hours trying to go back to sleep.
The 23 hours of darkness in January? It's best not to talk about that.
Iceland has some type of serenade which acts like a chocolate cake. You can't avoid it. The Viking-guy image....the lusty Icelandic women....the sea breeze in your face....the slight scent of sulfur always drifting around....and the glaciers always off in the distance.....all draw upon you.
So if you had a week or two, and just wanted to get away or escape, there's this wonderful alluring isle in the Atlantic that you might consider.
First, let's be clear about my version of Iceland....it being a place that you visit from early June until late August. For the remaining nine months of the year, I would probably discount Iceland from my trip lists. I'm a summer-only Iceland enthusiast.
Second, when you go to Iceland....it's not really for man-made stuff. In all of Iceland....I can only think of five man-made places worth seeing, and all five deserve an hour maximum each. I'd put the main church in Reykjavik (Hallgrimskirkja) on the top of the man-made things to see. I'd probably also put the new opera hall in Reykjavik on the list, but don't count on operas running seven days a week there. The Arbear Museum on the southside of Reykjavik is some time and represents the old culture of the island. Of course, the Blue Lagoon on the far west corner is worth a visit, although I wouldn't necessary go and soak myself in the sulfur-filled waters. Finally, the Perlan in Reykjavik might be worth a brief stop (it's a combination observatory, coffee shop, and great look-out point across the bulk of the city).
Over a five-year period, I used Icelandic Air on various occasions crossing the Atlantic. I'd land at Keflavik, spend a brief hour exiting the plane, admiring the glaciers in the distance, sip a Coke at the lounge, and board the next plane for the remainder of the trip. Each trip brought me one step closer to some actual vacation. So in 2016, I spent the week in Iceland.
To be honest, if you were going to do the entire isle tour and circle the place on Route One....you'd need fourteen to sixteen days.
You don't go to Iceland for beach resort tanning experiences, partying or drunken binges (like Ibiza), cultural exchanges (like sipping wine at the Louvre and remarking on brush-strokes), or admiring fortress/castle design. You also don't go to Iceland for gourmet menu choices, Icelandic-made wine, or to hear great classical music (other than that Bjork babe, the crazed Mugison, or new group Of Monsters and Men).
Mostly, you go to Iceland to recover from something, that's my humble feeling.
It's hard to find some remote corner of Earth where there is an enchantment over mostly nothing. Oh, there are glaciers, lava fields, big open valleys with ponies running with the wind, waterfalls that take your breathe away, and narrow winding roads that seem to enchant and seduce you (as will the ditches and wild turns). Those silly Icelanders will even put up signs to advise that these approaching roads are marginal, dangerous, and 'impassable' (meaning you shouldn't advance)....then you....on some stupid thought....see no blockage or chain across the road, and continue on.....asking for risk....maybe even begging for risk.
You might stop occasionally at some cheap diner by the road and have a chat with the locals. There are amazed anyone would want to come to Iceland....there's not much there to see, at least that's how the local guy would state the fact. A Mayberry-like story would be woven by the Icelander....giving just a bit of dry humor.
After a while, you notice there's no gang activity. There's a lack of no-go areas....to the extent that all of Iceland is a must-go area. Crime is mostly non-existent. There are no wild left-wing or right-wing extremists. Revolutionaries are just about non-existent. And if you were intending to be a homeless guy there....the first winter would wipe out that career choice.
There are three famous Icelandic comedy shows: Naeturvaktin (2007, 12 episodes), Dagvaktin (2008, 11 episodes) and Fangavaktin (2009, 7 episodes). The three revolve around three misfit Icelandic guys who originally meet up in the first year to work at a gas station on the outskirts of nowhere. There's the young guy with forty different psychological issues and probably should be permanently heavily-medicated. There's the Stalinist-Marxist manager guy who is a one-star threat to civilization. And then there's this guy without much common sense or intelligence but always appears to be sixty seconds away from remarkable success (if any of his ideas would ever work). The three series tie the three characters loosely together and in remarkable spirals. The last year is where two of the gentlemen have graduated to the Icelandic prison system and their friend comes often to visit them. For some reason, the humor from the three series sticks with me.
This is this charisma about Iceland. It's like some last frontier. The Vikings are long gone, and the locals are left with a bad taste of bankers after the 2008 collapse. Yet you stand around....admire the lava fields....gaze off into the distance at the glaciers....and watch the waves pound the shore. You walk into a local Icelandic pub....to sip down Egils Gull or Kaldi beer.....admiring the fake Icelandic waitress (she's from the UK)....and come to note the locals around the bar are really just tourists like you.
You'd like to hang out with Icelanders but never seem to be able to find any.
The 23 hours of sunshine in July? Oddly, this only comes up as a problem as you approach midnight, and awaken at 2AM to see the sun starting to rise. You question your clock and spend two hours trying to go back to sleep.
The 23 hours of darkness in January? It's best not to talk about that.
Iceland has some type of serenade which acts like a chocolate cake. You can't avoid it. The Viking-guy image....the lusty Icelandic women....the sea breeze in your face....the slight scent of sulfur always drifting around....and the glaciers always off in the distance.....all draw upon you.
So if you had a week or two, and just wanted to get away or escape, there's this wonderful alluring isle in the Atlantic that you might consider.
Impassable versus Closed?
I noticed this week a mention in the 'Grapevine', an Icelandic news site in English.....a mention of a particular problem which required the nation of Iceland to react.
The Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration (IRCA) had this meeting. Their job is to find different ways to improve the safety factor of driving around Iceland. So they observe trends, graph-chart numbers, and then issue out changes.
Recently, they picked up this odd problem which arose mostly because of increased tourism (1.7 million for the tiny isle in 2016 is now a fact).
When you drive around the country....there are typically three types of roads (at least in my humble opinion). The first is four-star blacktop with some four lanes (very few), and a national road (highway one). The second is three-star blacktop, which are all two lane operations and maintained to a fair degree. Then you have the third category, which is non-paved and ought to only be used for six months out of the year.
For the last category, there are typically maps handed out and they are HIGHLY noted as roads with a challenge.
The Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration (IRCA) had this meeting. Their job is to find different ways to improve the safety factor of driving around Iceland. So they observe trends, graph-chart numbers, and then issue out changes.
Recently, they picked up this odd problem which arose mostly because of increased tourism (1.7 million for the tiny isle in 2016 is now a fact).
When you drive around the country....there are typically three types of roads (at least in my humble opinion). The first is four-star blacktop with some four lanes (very few), and a national road (highway one). The second is three-star blacktop, which are all two lane operations and maintained to a fair degree. Then you have the third category, which is non-paved and ought to only be used for six months out of the year.
For the last category, there are typically maps handed out and they are HIGHLY noted as roads with a challenge.
Having driven on two or three of these roads....my perception is that in decent weather....at a very low speed (less than 20 mph), you can probably use the road with a regular vehicle. Beyond that, you need 4WD, avoid totally from November to April, and think long and hard about the need to be in that type of situation.
At the beginning of each one of these roads, there is a triangle sign with the word "impassable" noted. In English, it means just that.....it's not a road to drive in winter.
Well, after reviewing the numbers, the IRCA folks have come to discover that a lot of visitors don't take the meaning of impassable to mean avoid. For some reason, they just keep driving. Yeah, tourists are that way.
After a long talk, IRCA is pressing on with a big change coming to Iceland in the coming year.....all of the impassable signs will be replaced with "closed". They think the phrase 'closed' will work better than 'impassable'. Cost? Unknown. Across the whole country, I would take a guess there are at least 200 of these non-paved roads going into some dangerous areas and need the new sign.
The IRCA folks are hinting in various ways that road safety in Iceland is getting to be more of a problem.....mostly because of the tourists. I noticed from the Iceland Review another recent article which hyped up the statistics issue with tourists.
It's an 80-percent increase with tourist accidents in 2016, compared against 2015.
Why do tourists get into the statistics like this? Iceland, I think....is this unique place where charm, landscape and character....seem to consume a tourist who is driving along and just not paying attention to the road or traffic. One minor mistake, and you end up in the ditch. I admit....I was charmed that way, but avoided the ditch.
Would I observe the closed road sign and not do anything stupid? Well....there's that charmed landscape situation, and I might just be looking off into the landscape and miss that simple sign.
At the beginning of each one of these roads, there is a triangle sign with the word "impassable" noted. In English, it means just that.....it's not a road to drive in winter.
Well, after reviewing the numbers, the IRCA folks have come to discover that a lot of visitors don't take the meaning of impassable to mean avoid. For some reason, they just keep driving. Yeah, tourists are that way.
After a long talk, IRCA is pressing on with a big change coming to Iceland in the coming year.....all of the impassable signs will be replaced with "closed". They think the phrase 'closed' will work better than 'impassable'. Cost? Unknown. Across the whole country, I would take a guess there are at least 200 of these non-paved roads going into some dangerous areas and need the new sign.
The IRCA folks are hinting in various ways that road safety in Iceland is getting to be more of a problem.....mostly because of the tourists. I noticed from the Iceland Review another recent article which hyped up the statistics issue with tourists.
It's an 80-percent increase with tourist accidents in 2016, compared against 2015.
Why do tourists get into the statistics like this? Iceland, I think....is this unique place where charm, landscape and character....seem to consume a tourist who is driving along and just not paying attention to the road or traffic. One minor mistake, and you end up in the ditch. I admit....I was charmed that way, but avoided the ditch.
Would I observe the closed road sign and not do anything stupid? Well....there's that charmed landscape situation, and I might just be looking off into the landscape and miss that simple sign.
ENF?
The ENF crowd got into the news this weekend in Germany. ENF? It stands for the Europe of Nations and Freedom. It's an umbrella association of forty different political parties or agenda groups....who all lean right or far-right from across Europe.
Yeah, AfD of Germany is in the group. Other names you might recongize are the Northern League (Italy), National Front (France), Freedom Party (Austria), the Flemish Interest (Belgium), the Congress of the New Right (Poland), the UKIP (UK), and Party for Freedom (Netherlands).
For the weekend, a big meeting was held in Koblenz, which drew approximately 5,000 protesters....mostly peaceful (unlike the US protest crowd in DC).
Theme? Well....they most gave speeches and put the news media into the position of reporting on this....mostly in negative tones.
You have basically three elements at work in Europe which is drawing more attention to the right, and bringing in more votes.
1. Immigration woes or perception of no control.
2. EU skepticism has yet to peak, and with the next election in 2019....there is some worry that more than a quarter of the crowd there will be replaced by far-right membership....maybe even going up to one-third of the EU representatives.
3. Nationalism isn't considered a negative theme anymore.
Other than the speeches and letting the EU know that they aren't backing off....there's not much else gained by this weekend. To some degree, they are all playing off elections now, and any boost on their polling numbers....helps other groups in different states suggest a public acceptance of the right.
The middle of the road center-right folks? They aren't generally seen as right-wing anymore. Political organizations like the CDU or CSU of Germany are looked upon as centralists (I would have my doubts saying that for the CSU of Bavaria). France Arise is mostly considered a centralist-right party.
The centralist groups were the only acceptable right-leaning political parties in existence for decades in Europe. What changed? I think the internet, social media, and YouTube helped to form a clear message and brought various groups to focus on message content that garnered public support. This 'rebirth' of the right-wing politics wouldn't have been able to occur in the 1980s.
A peak? No, there is yet to be seen any type of peak....within any country of Europe.
Mostly what you can expect over the next month or two is for the state-run/public-TV news crowd to center on the group, their speeches from the weekend, and pronounce some fascist threat to democracy.....while cutting and pasting bits and pieces of the speeches in the background, with some scary classical music in the background (I'd suggest Marschner's Der Vampyr, Bartok's Adagio with strings, or Totentanz by Liszt). Throw in some special graphics, some chit-chat by worried theologians, and you'd have a first-class left-winger hype show.
Left-wing versus right-wing? Yeah, it's more or less sizing up as such.
The odd thing is that you can now go to various countries and find that more than fifty percent of the general public has a lack of trust in the news media (it doesn't matter if you talk print-media, internet-media, or the TV-crowd). If they don't believe in the message being conveyed.....it lessens any attachment to normal or what was regular politics, and that means something of a revolutionary nature is underway, in numerous countries.
Perhaps I harp too much on the Jon Gnarr-effect out of Iceland, but when the general public reaches a stage where politics and journalism are seen as a joke....then electing real jokers into public office isn't such a big deal.
So, when you hear ENF mentioned as some dire threat to the democracy of Europe....you can guess where this news topic is going with the story.
Yeah, AfD of Germany is in the group. Other names you might recongize are the Northern League (Italy), National Front (France), Freedom Party (Austria), the Flemish Interest (Belgium), the Congress of the New Right (Poland), the UKIP (UK), and Party for Freedom (Netherlands).
For the weekend, a big meeting was held in Koblenz, which drew approximately 5,000 protesters....mostly peaceful (unlike the US protest crowd in DC).
Theme? Well....they most gave speeches and put the news media into the position of reporting on this....mostly in negative tones.
You have basically three elements at work in Europe which is drawing more attention to the right, and bringing in more votes.
1. Immigration woes or perception of no control.
2. EU skepticism has yet to peak, and with the next election in 2019....there is some worry that more than a quarter of the crowd there will be replaced by far-right membership....maybe even going up to one-third of the EU representatives.
3. Nationalism isn't considered a negative theme anymore.
Other than the speeches and letting the EU know that they aren't backing off....there's not much else gained by this weekend. To some degree, they are all playing off elections now, and any boost on their polling numbers....helps other groups in different states suggest a public acceptance of the right.
The middle of the road center-right folks? They aren't generally seen as right-wing anymore. Political organizations like the CDU or CSU of Germany are looked upon as centralists (I would have my doubts saying that for the CSU of Bavaria). France Arise is mostly considered a centralist-right party.
The centralist groups were the only acceptable right-leaning political parties in existence for decades in Europe. What changed? I think the internet, social media, and YouTube helped to form a clear message and brought various groups to focus on message content that garnered public support. This 'rebirth' of the right-wing politics wouldn't have been able to occur in the 1980s.
A peak? No, there is yet to be seen any type of peak....within any country of Europe.
Mostly what you can expect over the next month or two is for the state-run/public-TV news crowd to center on the group, their speeches from the weekend, and pronounce some fascist threat to democracy.....while cutting and pasting bits and pieces of the speeches in the background, with some scary classical music in the background (I'd suggest Marschner's Der Vampyr, Bartok's Adagio with strings, or Totentanz by Liszt). Throw in some special graphics, some chit-chat by worried theologians, and you'd have a first-class left-winger hype show.
Left-wing versus right-wing? Yeah, it's more or less sizing up as such.
The odd thing is that you can now go to various countries and find that more than fifty percent of the general public has a lack of trust in the news media (it doesn't matter if you talk print-media, internet-media, or the TV-crowd). If they don't believe in the message being conveyed.....it lessens any attachment to normal or what was regular politics, and that means something of a revolutionary nature is underway, in numerous countries.
Perhaps I harp too much on the Jon Gnarr-effect out of Iceland, but when the general public reaches a stage where politics and journalism are seen as a joke....then electing real jokers into public office isn't such a big deal.
So, when you hear ENF mentioned as some dire threat to the democracy of Europe....you can guess where this news topic is going with the story.
Friday, January 20, 2017
The 'Holocaust Guilt' Story
This week, one of the AfD folks (one of their top ten but on down the line) got into the news for a speech at some private group, which slammed 'Holocaust guilt'. I won't give the guy's name because it'd just hype him more. Most of the AfD leadership came out over the past three days and tried to encourage to walk the speech back and try to lessen his comments. News journalists and the Berlin crowd hyped negativity over his suggestion to lessen 'holocaust guilt'.
Generally, here in 2017.....seventy-two years after the war....'Holocaust guilt' continues on here in Germany. If you are a student in school....after the sixth grade, you probably will average eight hours a year of lecture or movie-coverage on the actions of the Nazi Party and the Holocaust. Some schools will run class trips to concentration camps or memorials, to get some points across. If you attend any university....you will get some further hours on the topic.
Some Germans will note that it seems like that the bulk of German school history classes are the Roman period, and from the 1930s on.
The necessity to continue the 'Holocaust guilt' theme? There are various mass killings which have occurred over the past 2,000 years, and this is one of the few that mandate a necessary guilt.
After WW II ended, a whole generation were on the blunt point of blame for what occurred. Some were just witnesses....some were German Army members who were lucky to survive the war.....and some were kids during the period. This generation is mostly passing on today.
The Germans born in the 1945 to 1960 period? They are less so attached to the 'Holocaust guilt' because they didn't vote for the Nazis or serve in the Army. They've gotten a healthy dose of moral lessons in their life and there's a mix of people who think the necessity of this moral lesson is dwindling.
The Germans born in the past thirty years? For them, this is ancient history and they are having more of a problem in accepting this 'Holocaust guilt'.
If you look around, other parties have a hint of some type of guilt. The British? They should have colony guilt.....but for some reason, it's limited to mostly Brit intellectual types. The French? They probably should have the same issue. Italy? They ought to have Libya quilt for the forty-odd years they were trying to run things. The Japanese? They probably should have China and Korea guilt, and do often try to present such a guilt image in public.
Then you come to the US and Russia. The Russians ought to have various levels of guilt, but it's almost on a zero scale that such exists.
The US? The Germans will kindly point out slave guilt, Indian guilt, Hawaiian tribe guilt, Caribbean Island or Latin America guilt, Vietnam guilt, and nukes over Japan guilt. You can probably add Iraq quilt, global warming guilt, global cooling guilt, oil usage guilt, sugar guilt, fake news guilt, Afghanistan quilt, the 2008 economic crisis quilt, lack of health insurance guilt, and Bush guilt. Today? Probably you can add Trump guilt.
For German intellectuals, it's one of those topics that they'd like to bring up in forums to hype people up and cast a shadow on the US. Some American intellectuals will show up for these shows and try to accept as much guilt as possible to make their German host happy....but the transfer of guilt across to the general public....rarely ever happens.
With the exception of Japanese internment camp guilt and some admittance of guilt there....with money paid out.....American guilt doesn't usually go too far.
Over the past year, the VW diesel cheat-crisis came up, and the Germans are mostly standing there.....with the Americans, and they hate this moment where VW diesel guilt has to occur. They hate this. Added to this....the Deutsche Bank got caught cheating on some stuff, and there's some guilt trip to that.
Bluntly, the Germans would like for some moment to occur where a massive amount of guilt would transfer over to the Americans and some settling of a 'score' would occur. Frankly, I have my doubts that such a squaring of accounts will ever occur.
How long will 'Holocaust guilt' continue? I have my doubts that it can sustain itself past the 100-year point. That's roughly three generations who will have passed in their period. The odds of another Hitler figure arriving? Germany, after WW I ended, was fragile, weak, and drifting. It took four years for Hitler and his thug gang to be a regional problem (at least in Bavaria). In thirteen years....they were electable. The method of the 1919 peace treaty helped in many ways to bring Hitler into the scene. The odds today? I'd almost give it a zero chance.
So when you hear about some big blow-up with the AfD this week and relating to Nazis....that's what this story is all about.
Generally, here in 2017.....seventy-two years after the war....'Holocaust guilt' continues on here in Germany. If you are a student in school....after the sixth grade, you probably will average eight hours a year of lecture or movie-coverage on the actions of the Nazi Party and the Holocaust. Some schools will run class trips to concentration camps or memorials, to get some points across. If you attend any university....you will get some further hours on the topic.
Some Germans will note that it seems like that the bulk of German school history classes are the Roman period, and from the 1930s on.
The necessity to continue the 'Holocaust guilt' theme? There are various mass killings which have occurred over the past 2,000 years, and this is one of the few that mandate a necessary guilt.
After WW II ended, a whole generation were on the blunt point of blame for what occurred. Some were just witnesses....some were German Army members who were lucky to survive the war.....and some were kids during the period. This generation is mostly passing on today.
The Germans born in the 1945 to 1960 period? They are less so attached to the 'Holocaust guilt' because they didn't vote for the Nazis or serve in the Army. They've gotten a healthy dose of moral lessons in their life and there's a mix of people who think the necessity of this moral lesson is dwindling.
The Germans born in the past thirty years? For them, this is ancient history and they are having more of a problem in accepting this 'Holocaust guilt'.
If you look around, other parties have a hint of some type of guilt. The British? They should have colony guilt.....but for some reason, it's limited to mostly Brit intellectual types. The French? They probably should have the same issue. Italy? They ought to have Libya quilt for the forty-odd years they were trying to run things. The Japanese? They probably should have China and Korea guilt, and do often try to present such a guilt image in public.
Then you come to the US and Russia. The Russians ought to have various levels of guilt, but it's almost on a zero scale that such exists.
The US? The Germans will kindly point out slave guilt, Indian guilt, Hawaiian tribe guilt, Caribbean Island or Latin America guilt, Vietnam guilt, and nukes over Japan guilt. You can probably add Iraq quilt, global warming guilt, global cooling guilt, oil usage guilt, sugar guilt, fake news guilt, Afghanistan quilt, the 2008 economic crisis quilt, lack of health insurance guilt, and Bush guilt. Today? Probably you can add Trump guilt.
For German intellectuals, it's one of those topics that they'd like to bring up in forums to hype people up and cast a shadow on the US. Some American intellectuals will show up for these shows and try to accept as much guilt as possible to make their German host happy....but the transfer of guilt across to the general public....rarely ever happens.
With the exception of Japanese internment camp guilt and some admittance of guilt there....with money paid out.....American guilt doesn't usually go too far.
Over the past year, the VW diesel cheat-crisis came up, and the Germans are mostly standing there.....with the Americans, and they hate this moment where VW diesel guilt has to occur. They hate this. Added to this....the Deutsche Bank got caught cheating on some stuff, and there's some guilt trip to that.
Bluntly, the Germans would like for some moment to occur where a massive amount of guilt would transfer over to the Americans and some settling of a 'score' would occur. Frankly, I have my doubts that such a squaring of accounts will ever occur.
How long will 'Holocaust guilt' continue? I have my doubts that it can sustain itself past the 100-year point. That's roughly three generations who will have passed in their period. The odds of another Hitler figure arriving? Germany, after WW I ended, was fragile, weak, and drifting. It took four years for Hitler and his thug gang to be a regional problem (at least in Bavaria). In thirteen years....they were electable. The method of the 1919 peace treaty helped in many ways to bring Hitler into the scene. The odds today? I'd almost give it a zero chance.
So when you hear about some big blow-up with the AfD this week and relating to Nazis....that's what this story is all about.
Fake News and Nostradamus
My wife (ever the German) brought this up today.....that in the German news that she runs through each day....there's this new anti-Trump story. Apparently, someone (probably a German) has analyzed Nostradamus (you know....the dead predictions guy who has been dead for 500 years), and proclaimed that there is a war forecasted with a guy starting it and Trump is apparently that guy. The war? Some 29-year war.
I suggested to my German wife that this was fake news. She suggested that it must be true.
The actions by the German fake news-truth committee? So far, nothing.
The problem when you use Nostradamus predictions is that they could be shaped into true events or shaped into fake events.
Can some idiots run around and do fake news episode everyday with Nostradamus, in Germany, and broadcast via Facebook? Well....yeah.
This is one of those forty-odd issues or problems with the whole fake news agenda. To stop the wave of fake news, you'd have to take on this Nostradamus guy, but he's been dead and buried for a long while. Luckily, he has no Facebook account.
I suggested to my German wife that this was fake news. She suggested that it must be true.
The actions by the German fake news-truth committee? So far, nothing.
The problem when you use Nostradamus predictions is that they could be shaped into true events or shaped into fake events.
Can some idiots run around and do fake news episode everyday with Nostradamus, in Germany, and broadcast via Facebook? Well....yeah.
This is one of those forty-odd issues or problems with the whole fake news agenda. To stop the wave of fake news, you'd have to take on this Nostradamus guy, but he's been dead and buried for a long while. Luckily, he has no Facebook account.
Thursday, January 19, 2017
BMW-Mexico Product versus BMW-Germany Product
Germans got all hyped up this week with Trump talk over BMW plant going up in Mexico and how the new administration might attach a 35-percent tariff on the BMWs coming across the border into the US (made in Mexico).
This made me sit and ponder this odd concept.
There is a long-standing BMW plant in Mexico, which has a production line for the 3-series, 5-series, and 7-series....along with the X-5.
The cost factor when compared to German BMWs? No one has ever said.
How'd this ever start up? Well....Mexico had this funny law in effect....it said (1990s it was in effect) that you had to assemble the car in Mexico, if you were going to sell it there. So, in the beginning....they made parts elsewhere and just found the Mexican employees to assemble this.
After a while, the BMW-Mexico company (note, it's not BMW-Germany)....got around to making parts in the country as well....mostly because of the lack of unions and the low cost standard in Mexico. Then they wised up and started to selling BMW-Mexico cars in the US....meaning less BMW-Germany cars were sold there. Profit? Sent onto Mexico....with some toward the end going to BMW-Germany as the franchise owner.
Lot of money pouring in for this new BMW Mexico plant and folks have a close eye on costs and profits. A thirty-five percent tariff would move the cost of the vehicle in the US....up a notch. For the rest of Latin America....the tariff has no effect.
But I sat and pondered this. If this BMW-Mexico plant was so successful and made cars at a relatively reasonable cost....why not ship the cars back and import them into Germany?
You hear that silence?
Yeah, did I just suggest something that would freak out Germans? Well....yeah.
If you told Germans one night that the bulk of BMWs sold in Germany were to flip and be "Made in Mexico" versus "Made in Germany"....what would happen?
Unions would get all furious. The SPD Party would be willing to draft up massive import regulations to prevent such a thing. The news journalists would be falling left and right over this topic.
Do Germans even realize all these BMWs made in Mexico are cutting their own production numbers? I doubt it.
Would Germans even be willing to go and buy a Made-in-Mexico 5-series car....for 12-percent less than what a Made-in-Germany 5-series car would cost? Could you tell the difference between the two cars? Is there even a quality difference?
Oddly, no German journalist will dare bring this up as a topic, and ask how the German public would accept a Made-in-Mexico BMW. Just something to think about.
This made me sit and ponder this odd concept.
There is a long-standing BMW plant in Mexico, which has a production line for the 3-series, 5-series, and 7-series....along with the X-5.
The cost factor when compared to German BMWs? No one has ever said.
How'd this ever start up? Well....Mexico had this funny law in effect....it said (1990s it was in effect) that you had to assemble the car in Mexico, if you were going to sell it there. So, in the beginning....they made parts elsewhere and just found the Mexican employees to assemble this.
After a while, the BMW-Mexico company (note, it's not BMW-Germany)....got around to making parts in the country as well....mostly because of the lack of unions and the low cost standard in Mexico. Then they wised up and started to selling BMW-Mexico cars in the US....meaning less BMW-Germany cars were sold there. Profit? Sent onto Mexico....with some toward the end going to BMW-Germany as the franchise owner.
Lot of money pouring in for this new BMW Mexico plant and folks have a close eye on costs and profits. A thirty-five percent tariff would move the cost of the vehicle in the US....up a notch. For the rest of Latin America....the tariff has no effect.
But I sat and pondered this. If this BMW-Mexico plant was so successful and made cars at a relatively reasonable cost....why not ship the cars back and import them into Germany?
You hear that silence?
Yeah, did I just suggest something that would freak out Germans? Well....yeah.
If you told Germans one night that the bulk of BMWs sold in Germany were to flip and be "Made in Mexico" versus "Made in Germany"....what would happen?
Unions would get all furious. The SPD Party would be willing to draft up massive import regulations to prevent such a thing. The news journalists would be falling left and right over this topic.
Do Germans even realize all these BMWs made in Mexico are cutting their own production numbers? I doubt it.
Would Germans even be willing to go and buy a Made-in-Mexico 5-series car....for 12-percent less than what a Made-in-Germany 5-series car would cost? Could you tell the difference between the two cars? Is there even a quality difference?
Oddly, no German journalist will dare bring this up as a topic, and ask how the German public would accept a Made-in-Mexico BMW. Just something to think about.
Democracy, Fake News, and the Jon Gnarr Effect
I kinda notice on a daily basis various Germans with a wild perception of Donald Trump and disbelief on how things transpired in the US with the election. I've spent a fair amount of time studying the US election, Trump versus Hillary, and the odd amount of mundpropaganda (filtered news) now being generated.
So I'm going to lay out the whole election, the Trump victory, the 2008 economic crisis that fell upon the world, and how this crazy Jon Gnarr of Iceland fits into the whole voting process and election of Trump.
For those who aren't aware....for roughly a decade prior to the 2008 economic crisis...Iceland was considered this fantastic place where you could throw money into a bank and it made profits. Lots of Brits, Germans and Dutch had stashed money into Icelandic banks. Bankers in Reykjavik were consumed with passion over their success and easy sales pitch. No one ever said much that the investment tools being used were these bundled mortgage loan packages back in the US, and the failure rate was increasing year by year.
When the crap hit in 2008....banks in the US and Europe suffered greatly. Banks in Iceland? They went through what you could only describe as the worst possible imagined crisis. From 2008 to 2011....for roughly three years....the country was in a crisis stage. At one point, McDonalds even closed down in Reykjavik.
Politicians from Iceland....left and right players....tried to comfort the public but public confidence more or less went south.
So in 2010, with the local city election of Reykjavik coming up....something odd happened. With roughly 119,000 people....there's roughly 56,000 votes in an election at stake. You'd typically have three parties which would play out the normal game....the Independence Party (slightly-right-leaning), the Green Party (obviously left-leaning), and the Social Democrats (left-of-center).
At some point months prior to the summer election....this comedian from town by the name of Jon Gnarr met with some friends.....sipped some beer....and suggested the idea of forming a political party.
The crew at this meeting were friendly to this idea but asked what to call it. Jon said it ought to be the best party, and they liked the name....so it became "The Best Party".
Yeah, Icelanders are that way, but let's not drift off the Democracy topic.
Jon used social media to carry the message out across Reykjavik. I don't think a single cent was spent on real advertising. The party theme? It's a joke. Politics, the banking crisis, the whole fake solution gimmick by the Icelandic Parliament, the news media, etc. It's all a joke.
Jon even made up fake promises....saying at one point that his party would pursue free towels at the local public pools in Reykjavik.
So 29 May 2010 came. The next morning....someone called Jon up early, and suggested he better sit down. No one ever said much over polls, and Jon didn't really didn't expect more than a couple hundred votes. The Best Party carried 20,666 votes....37-percent of the vote tally.
Yeah, the comedian won. Why? People were fed up with regular politics, and the fakeness of the news media, politicians, and they wanted to twist democracy a bit to make it different.
You'd think that Jon would just say no and slip away. Well....no, Jon stayed on and became Mayor of Reykjavik. A bold success? No. But Jon wasn't a failure at this. He actually took it serious and didn't screw up.
So you zoom forward to 2016....the United States....the Republicans and Democrats, and a news media landscape that was behaving like some propaganda machine. The public looked at 23 candidates from the two parties and just started laughing.
By spring of 2016, the Jon Gnarr effect was underway....Donald Trump was to become the Jon Gnarr of America. Virtually every single Republican 'thug' or wannabe pretender tried to intimidate Trump and stall this upward trend.
Fake news? You can play this anyway you want....Jon Gnarr used the internet and social media to take on the normal system.....Trump would do the same thing.
Democrats crossed the line and voted Trump. Republicans from the top of the party chatted wildly about 'never-Trump', but it didn't matter. The Gnarr-effect was in full swing. The public was fed up with politics and the news media.
So in November it all came to a close. The American Jon Gnarr-crowd won. It was a message, more or less.
The anxiety moving across German politics and the news media today with fake news. Sit back and think about it. What happens if some Jon Gnarr-effect starts in Germany? What if you had social media as a tool and didn't have to spend twenty-million Euro in some election? What if you skipped the state-run/public TV device? What if you had just three German university students making a six-minute video and mounted it on YouTube and had 500,000 Germans giving it a thumbs'up?
I sat the other night thinking about this. Some German 'Billy-Jack-like' guy....talking about crime and threats in Germany, using direct programming to go after the 18-to-25 year old vote.
You need roughly 2.4 million German votes to get to the five-percent point, and thus enter the Bundestag. A Jon Gnarr-type campaign, with Gnarr fake promises, and treating the big four political parties as children? You might be be able to cross the four million vote line, out of 44.3-million. That's be enough to get 8 percent of the vote and achieve 70-odd seats.
All this German fake news hype over a Jon Gnarr affect? Yes.
We have reached the stage where democracy is not controlled by newspapers, TV moderators, or political parties themselves. The Jon Gnarr effect has no control....unless you can rope them into some fake politics or fake news type fakeness.
Once you grasp that....the question is....are we reaching a stage where democracy is a joke, and the public is in on the joke? This is where you'd pour a double shot of your more expensive booze, and sit in front of a window for an hour and contemplate this dilemma.
Democracy started out in Athens, Greece in 508BC. It started out as a tribal method of picking leadership and suggesting that people could make wise decisions on their own. No one says much about this first election in 508BC, or who the folks were who were running for "chief". My guess is that these early Greek politicians promised free wine, free firewood, and free towels at the local local pool (the Gnarr effect).
People hyped up this whole idea of democracy being a fine idea, and for 2,500-odd years....it's done as much as it could. The Gnarr effect? It's kinda like a correction would work in a economic mess....to move things back to a better position.
Trump? The Germans may sit and spend hours and hours worrying about Trump and how crazy he might be. Some Reykjavik folks did the same with Jon Gnarr. After a year, they realized that Jon wasn't quiet as crazy as they originally imagined, and he did a decent job. Could Germany survive some Billy-Jack-like character coming out of thin air and creating a fake political party? It's hard to say. They did have that little Austrian guy show up for a while in the 1930s and 1940s. Oddly, one could say the Jon Gnarr affect was in full bloom with Germans negative with the normal political parties.
Life presents some odd curves....Trump and Jon Gnarr are such curves.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)