Monday, January 23, 2017

This Brandenberg Poll Story

For those who aren't aware....Brandenberg is one of Germany's sixteen states....kinda surrounding Berlin which is a state by itself.  Population of the state?  2.3 million people.  If you drive around the region, what you'd generally say is that it's mostly a rural area, with Potsdam and Cottbus as it's principal cities (note: Potsdam has 160,000 people).

I bring Potsdam up today because the Forsa Polling Institute went out and did regional polling.  It's not really worth doing and I'd question why it's of any value.  They had their state election in 2014, and they are still a fair distance away from the next one (2019).

The results of this poll?'s an odd thing.

The CDU can still count on 30-percent of the public support, if an election were held tomorrow.  Oddly, the SPD folks have fallen to third place.  The Linke Party?  They'd slipped to 16-percent.  So, who took up the gains here?  AfD, with 20-percent.

AfD is now sitting at second place in Brandenberg state polling.  A huge change from two years ago.

What Die Welt reported (the source of the story) is that this is making political folks take second looks around other states because this general story of AfD being at 12-to-14 percent nationally might not be that reliable.

Nationally, it's hard to judge how people are looking at the fall election.  You could have Germans who are being asked how they would vote, and they might just say the standard answer.....but secretly admit that they are frustrated with both the CDU and SPD.  Course, if you asked them about AfD's solution to the various issues....well, that's not really that clear.  They'd just like to vote AGAINST the current crowd in a way to use Jon Gnarr-effect and say something.

But my last question is this....with no local election until the fall of 2019, it would seem odd that you'd go and do something like this poll.  Why do it unless you (the poll organization) wanted to make a message as well?

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