Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Dutch 2017 Election

On 15 March 2017, a parliament-type election will occur in the Netherlands.  Normally, it doesn't mean much outside of the country.  In this year's case....it might send signals to a dozen-odd countries within the EU and be a sign of public discontent.

At present....the VVD Party holds 40 of the 150 seats of the Dutch parliament.  They ended up in 2012 forming a coalition with the PvdA Party (35 seats) and run the current government.

The VVD folks?  They would be classified as slightly left-of-center.  The PvdA folks? They would be classified as a left-of-center group.

In the current polling (mid-January 2017)?  VVD is ranking at 23-percent of the public sentiment, and PvdA at 10-percent.  Together, they took 79-percent of the vote in 2012.....presently, with the Pell polling instrument, they will take 33-percent...a significant downward spiral.

The leader at present?  PVV....the Geert Wilder's Party of Freedom.  They are sitting at a comfortable 34-percent lead.  At present, there's little doubt that they will end up winning.

Forming a coalition government?  Well....Wilder's Party of Freedom has some problems.  Both the present partners in the current government are saying they won't partner up.

To reach the fifty-percent point?  It presents a challenge.

Sitting at the 4th place now is the Christian Democrats....at 16-percent.  They are considered a centralist party or slightly leaning to the right.  They haven't said no, but they haven't said yes.....to a partnership.

Sitting at the 5th place now is the Socialist Party of the Netherlands....at 11-percent.  There are hints that they won't partner either.

In the mix is the D66 Party, which is a centralist party.....sitting at roughly 15-percent.

Getting one single party to agree with Wilder's platform will be tough enough, but if they have to reach down to two parties....to engage and talk a coalition....it will become nearly impossible.

What to expect by early April?  I think Wilder's Freedom Party will win, and find some partner, and get a five-year mandate to run the country.  Right-wing?  Yes....although this partnership deal might weaken some of the far extreme points of Wilder's strategy.

The thing is....it puts the Netherlands into a new atmosphere, and likely challenges the EU.  It also pumps up the French legislative election to some degree....coming up in mid-summer.  More signs of a new European political slant?  More than likely.

No comments: