This is one of those odd German statistics that I point out as having changed the landscape a great deal.
Back in 1970 (25 years after WW II)....roughly eighty-eight percent of German kids finished Haupschulabschluss. This was basically the 10th grade, and your entry point into a skill-craft or apprentice deal. In that same year, roughly ten-percent of German kids finished Mittlere Reife, which was the 10th grade but designed more for achiever-type kids.....meaning that they went on to technical type skills, or more intense skill-craft areas. Some of these Mittlere Reife kids would go onto Abitur, which was the path-door into college or university. In terms of pure Abitur-school kids in 1970s graduating? It was 1.4-percent.
What you can take out of 1970 was that most kids were going for the bottom-level craft or skill type situation.
By 1980....things had changed.
The Haupschulabschulss kids had dropped down to 79-percent (9-point drop). The middle school kids or the Mittlere Reife kids? They had increased to 17.7-percent...fairly dramatic jump (figure fifty-percent minimum). Then you come to the Abi-kids, who had doubled in one decade to almost 3-percent.
By 1990....things had changed even more.
There was a 13-point drop for the lower school kids....the Haupschulabschulss kids were now in the 66.5-percent range. In the middle school group in Mittlere Reife? They had grown yet again....adding ten points to 27-percent. The smarter kids in the Abi-path? 6.5-percent....basically doubling again in one decade.
So you come to 2000.
Around 55-percent of German kids went to the lower school of the Haupschulabschulss route. The middle school route? They had gone to 34-percent. And the university-bound kids in the prep-school environment of the Abi-system? They had gone to 11-percent.
All of this presents an interesting twist to the job market because almost half the kids are now in the middle or higher school patterns. For the lower-job fields or careers? It was apparent already in 2000 that there was a serious problem approaching with not that many kids entering the 'nuts and bolt' traditional job fields which require minimum education.
So on this list of twenty reasons to favor an open door for immigrates and migrants....this shift by German teens back twenty years ago.....triggered this belief that you needed some more folks to enter, who weren't all that hyped up for higher education. They would fill the lesser jobs.
I know it sounds stupid to suggest this type of view with this logic, but go talk to grocery stores who need just some minimally educated guy to stock shelves, or the wait to serve tables at some bar.
Monday, October 30, 2017
Sunday, October 29, 2017
Battery Car Talk
Focus brought up this interesting topic (at least with me)....over electric cars. Few Americans realize this, but as you go around Europe...you find various rates. So in Iceland and some of the Nordic countries....there's fairly reasonable (cheap) electricity. Germany? It's in the top five in terms of cost per kWh. Buying an electric car? Here, there is a limited and marginal savings on what it'd cost if you drove 600 miles on gas or drove it on battery-power.
The car industry knows this issue, and would basically like for the German government to re-invent this whole method of electrical cost.
The problem here? There's this moral obligation that Germany attached itself to....the carbon footprint. Their view is that they want less power created and that even means less electrical power. Yet, the electrical car would be a much lesser footprint....if you went this direction.
The movement toward wind power and solar energy? This would help, but then you need to help finance this path to the alternate sites, and that means more cost added to make this possible.
I've sat with the German wife and discussed this topic on numerous occasions. She agrees on the eventual occurrence of us having an electrical car. She doesn't want to hook that charger up to the grid. She wants a massive solar cell operation on the roof. But she's not convinced that the technology and cost are at some prime moment of reality. Me? I look at the 150-odd days a year of cloudy weather and wonder how this would work without hooking up to the grid. Two weeks ago, we actually had like eight days in a row of solid sunshine. The last four days....solid clouds.
Out of 82-million Germans....I would make a guess that roughly seventy-five million are skeptical of this whole thing and just aren't that sold on battery cars. It would help if some massive change were to occur with electrical rates, but I just see that happening over the next ten years.
The car industry knows this issue, and would basically like for the German government to re-invent this whole method of electrical cost.
The problem here? There's this moral obligation that Germany attached itself to....the carbon footprint. Their view is that they want less power created and that even means less electrical power. Yet, the electrical car would be a much lesser footprint....if you went this direction.
The movement toward wind power and solar energy? This would help, but then you need to help finance this path to the alternate sites, and that means more cost added to make this possible.
I've sat with the German wife and discussed this topic on numerous occasions. She agrees on the eventual occurrence of us having an electrical car. She doesn't want to hook that charger up to the grid. She wants a massive solar cell operation on the roof. But she's not convinced that the technology and cost are at some prime moment of reality. Me? I look at the 150-odd days a year of cloudy weather and wonder how this would work without hooking up to the grid. Two weeks ago, we actually had like eight days in a row of solid sunshine. The last four days....solid clouds.
Out of 82-million Germans....I would make a guess that roughly seventy-five million are skeptical of this whole thing and just aren't that sold on battery cars. It would help if some massive change were to occur with electrical rates, but I just see that happening over the next ten years.
Saturday, October 28, 2017
The Fake 'Instrument' Story
This episode popped up around ten days ago in the Pfalz, in Kaiserslautern. SWR reported it.
Some local guy got pulled over. There had been some suspicious action by the guy and cops felt he was on drugs.
So they said here....give us a urine sample. Cops in Germany can make that request and you have to comply or the license is lost for thirty days minimum.
The guy handles the cup....unzips, and then dumps via his 'instrument'....water into the cup. He puts the cap on, done.
Note, I said the word....'water'.
The cop notices that it's not a yellow color and stops everything.
Yep, the idiot had a rubber 'instrument' belt on. He had filled it with water....instead of asking someone to donate some good urine to their cause.
So the blood test comes now....meth and cannabis noted from that test.
Court action will follow. No one says much about the loss of the license (probably will be a year). They might have a charge for the fake 'instrument'. Jail-time? No. Just a fine for that and the loss of the license.
Some local guy got pulled over. There had been some suspicious action by the guy and cops felt he was on drugs.
So they said here....give us a urine sample. Cops in Germany can make that request and you have to comply or the license is lost for thirty days minimum.
The guy handles the cup....unzips, and then dumps via his 'instrument'....water into the cup. He puts the cap on, done.
Note, I said the word....'water'.
The cop notices that it's not a yellow color and stops everything.
Yep, the idiot had a rubber 'instrument' belt on. He had filled it with water....instead of asking someone to donate some good urine to their cause.
So the blood test comes now....meth and cannabis noted from that test.
Court action will follow. No one says much about the loss of the license (probably will be a year). They might have a charge for the fake 'instrument'. Jail-time? No. Just a fine for that and the loss of the license.
Friday, October 27, 2017
What Happens If the Coalition Talks in Germany Fail?
Well....it's fairly low odds (probably in the five-percent range) that the CDU-CSU-Greens-FDP situation will fail. Most expect the talks to take all the way to mid-December. Should we reach the end of December and no coalition has occurred?
We have a brief situation which would arise and the CDU-CSU team would go to the SPD and suggest a coalition. My humble guess is that the SPD will agree....only if Merkel steps down and a SPD individual is allowed to be Chancellor.
Then? Another election....likely by early-to-mid March.
Merkel running again? It's hard to say if this would be a positive thing. With Merkel and Schulz out of the picture...it'd be a fairly different race.
We have a brief situation which would arise and the CDU-CSU team would go to the SPD and suggest a coalition. My humble guess is that the SPD will agree....only if Merkel steps down and a SPD individual is allowed to be Chancellor.
Then? Another election....likely by early-to-mid March.
Merkel running again? It's hard to say if this would be a positive thing. With Merkel and Schulz out of the picture...it'd be a fairly different race.
Gas Versus Diesel Taxes
If you drive around Germany and stop to purchase fuel....you tend to notice that there is a fairly lesser price on diesel per liter.....than gas per liter.
Why? Back in the early 1990s....a tax incentive was figured up for the government to get 65.45 cents on a liter of gas as tax.....while diesel would be 47.04 cents per liter. Why? The government at the time figured that some EU directives coming down the pike and the anticipated switch of drivers to rapid-rail use.....would make the idea of lesser tax on diesel a good idea.
If you tried to make real sense out of this....it won't add up (my humble opinion).
So it's been this way for thirty-odd years.
Now, there's a court case brewing where the Green Party wants the rule changed and diesel-fuel taxes raised...perhaps even more than gas.
The German Federal Court of Auditors (BRH) is asking now for a change in the pricing scheme.
If it occurs? It's just another brick on top of the misery for diesel car owners in Germany. Most have already lost the value of their car....maybe up to one-third of the value is gone. New car diesel sales are almost zero. For the long-distance drivers....the ones doing 150 kilometer per day....using the diesel car and lesser-taxed diesel fuel....it means probably another 500 Euro a year that will go into the government's pocket.
Why? Back in the early 1990s....a tax incentive was figured up for the government to get 65.45 cents on a liter of gas as tax.....while diesel would be 47.04 cents per liter. Why? The government at the time figured that some EU directives coming down the pike and the anticipated switch of drivers to rapid-rail use.....would make the idea of lesser tax on diesel a good idea.
If you tried to make real sense out of this....it won't add up (my humble opinion).
So it's been this way for thirty-odd years.
Now, there's a court case brewing where the Green Party wants the rule changed and diesel-fuel taxes raised...perhaps even more than gas.
The German Federal Court of Auditors (BRH) is asking now for a change in the pricing scheme.
If it occurs? It's just another brick on top of the misery for diesel car owners in Germany. Most have already lost the value of their car....maybe up to one-third of the value is gone. New car diesel sales are almost zero. For the long-distance drivers....the ones doing 150 kilometer per day....using the diesel car and lesser-taxed diesel fuel....it means probably another 500 Euro a year that will go into the government's pocket.
Thursday, October 26, 2017
The 160-Million Euro Story
Generally, by law in Germany, you as a employer have to go and budget/pay the social pension tax for employees. If you fail in this obligation....the authorities come after you.
So, the story comes today over 'Sozialbeitrage' (pension tax) not being paid by the Catholic Church of Freiburg.
The amount being suggested? A staggering 160 million Euro.
It's not just years being talked about....it's decades.
The Ordinariat (the regional administration) basically says that a local public prosecutor is now involved. The folks affected? Priests, church employees (cleaning people, secretaries, and even gardeners).
This lays across a thousand Catholic Churches in the state of Baden-Württemberg.
What went wrong? Somewhere about four years ago, there was a changeover of personnel, and the new folks brought in an audit to ensure that everything they did....was transparent. Well, the audit laid out this issue. It would appear that this goes back decades, and simply a decision made by someone in charge that they weren't required to make this payment. The Ordinariat? Well, you would think that they'd do a yearly review and find this problem. It should have popped up two decades ago.
As for the money? The Catholic Church says that they've set aside the money and when the review is done....they will pay what is owed. My guess is that no penalty will be put upon them. As for them having 160-million Euro laying around? I guess they've got the money.
But this brings up this one odd topic with me.....how many more episodes like this....are sitting out there? Could there be a thousand business fronts who are failing to pay the social pension tax? Could there be billions in uncollected taxes sitting out there?
So, the story comes today over 'Sozialbeitrage' (pension tax) not being paid by the Catholic Church of Freiburg.
The amount being suggested? A staggering 160 million Euro.
It's not just years being talked about....it's decades.
The Ordinariat (the regional administration) basically says that a local public prosecutor is now involved. The folks affected? Priests, church employees (cleaning people, secretaries, and even gardeners).
This lays across a thousand Catholic Churches in the state of Baden-Württemberg.
What went wrong? Somewhere about four years ago, there was a changeover of personnel, and the new folks brought in an audit to ensure that everything they did....was transparent. Well, the audit laid out this issue. It would appear that this goes back decades, and simply a decision made by someone in charge that they weren't required to make this payment. The Ordinariat? Well, you would think that they'd do a yearly review and find this problem. It should have popped up two decades ago.
As for the money? The Catholic Church says that they've set aside the money and when the review is done....they will pay what is owed. My guess is that no penalty will be put upon them. As for them having 160-million Euro laying around? I guess they've got the money.
But this brings up this one odd topic with me.....how many more episodes like this....are sitting out there? Could there be a thousand business fronts who are failing to pay the social pension tax? Could there be billions in uncollected taxes sitting out there?
Crime Story
I often essay about the extent of crime now in Germany, and the inability of the police to get ahead. Today, Focus carried a short piece concerning Hamburg and their police.
The head of the Confederation of German Criminal investigators (Jan Reinecke) spoke to the issue of manpower for German police and basically said: "We are at the end".....meaning there simply isn't enough manpower to do the job. He points out that it's across the board...robbery, organized crime, capital crime, etc.
The sophistication involved? In some ways, the crime element has skipped a generation and gotten into various things that you just didn't expect. It's like bringing up the ATM machines which are blown up daily around Germany now. A decade ago, they were non-existent. Various gangs have the technique down and you could easily rake in a million a year with three guys hitting the ATMs.
In my local area, the fake-cop routine is now down to a daily event. In my local area from a couple of days ago...guy shows up at a door showing a badge and saying he was there to 'audit' or check the fire alarm within the house. Something set off the German occupant and they denied them entry. Regular cops don't ever perform fire alarm checks. Other than the regular cops writing up the fake-cop report, it'll just get filed. Next week, the same trick will be used again.
I noticed out of local news this morning....some 85-year old German had a phone call from the fake-police....telling her that her money in the bank was going to be compromised. So they instructed her to go down, and remove the 32,000 Euro and a 'special' policeman would come by her house to protect her money. A bank clerk asked enough questions to finally get it out of the old gal....that she was being compromised. Cops can file the report and write up an article for the paper, but getting at the gangs that do this kind of work is near impossible.
Three expensive vehicles were stolen in the Wiesbaden area over the past couple of nights. One of them....ended up being spotted while the guy was refueling on the east side of Dresden (heading into Poland). Cops gave pursuit and ended finding it abandoned near-by in a forest. The guy got away. Other than writing the report.....there is little to expect on identifying the guy involved, or finding the two other vehicles.
All of this leads me to the opinion that German trust in law enforcement is slowly eroding. Everyone is hyped up to build more security into their houses and their lives. There just isn't enough manpower to remedy this situation....even with the 10,000 extra cops that the CDU/SPD coalition promised up in the last six months. And the sophistication of criminals now in Germany is requiring an entirely different view of prevention.
The head of the Confederation of German Criminal investigators (Jan Reinecke) spoke to the issue of manpower for German police and basically said: "We are at the end".....meaning there simply isn't enough manpower to do the job. He points out that it's across the board...robbery, organized crime, capital crime, etc.
The sophistication involved? In some ways, the crime element has skipped a generation and gotten into various things that you just didn't expect. It's like bringing up the ATM machines which are blown up daily around Germany now. A decade ago, they were non-existent. Various gangs have the technique down and you could easily rake in a million a year with three guys hitting the ATMs.
In my local area, the fake-cop routine is now down to a daily event. In my local area from a couple of days ago...guy shows up at a door showing a badge and saying he was there to 'audit' or check the fire alarm within the house. Something set off the German occupant and they denied them entry. Regular cops don't ever perform fire alarm checks. Other than the regular cops writing up the fake-cop report, it'll just get filed. Next week, the same trick will be used again.
I noticed out of local news this morning....some 85-year old German had a phone call from the fake-police....telling her that her money in the bank was going to be compromised. So they instructed her to go down, and remove the 32,000 Euro and a 'special' policeman would come by her house to protect her money. A bank clerk asked enough questions to finally get it out of the old gal....that she was being compromised. Cops can file the report and write up an article for the paper, but getting at the gangs that do this kind of work is near impossible.
Three expensive vehicles were stolen in the Wiesbaden area over the past couple of nights. One of them....ended up being spotted while the guy was refueling on the east side of Dresden (heading into Poland). Cops gave pursuit and ended finding it abandoned near-by in a forest. The guy got away. Other than writing the report.....there is little to expect on identifying the guy involved, or finding the two other vehicles.
All of this leads me to the opinion that German trust in law enforcement is slowly eroding. Everyone is hyped up to build more security into their houses and their lives. There just isn't enough manpower to remedy this situation....even with the 10,000 extra cops that the CDU/SPD coalition promised up in the last six months. And the sophistication of criminals now in Germany is requiring an entirely different view of prevention.
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Why So Much Division in Europe?
When you look at various regions trying to separate themselves out of their nation-states in Europe....the question ought to come over why.
When you look at most countries in Europe (the bigger ones)....they were based on a language situation, and little else when they were incorporated as they look today.
But there's this odd problem that popped up in various countries (Belgium, England, Italy, Germany, Spain, France, etc).....as nations grew through the 1980s and 1990s....it was apparent that various regions made money, which turned into tax revenue. And various regions of a country had marginal industry, tourism, agriculture and services....which translated into....well, lesser tax revenue.
Leadership in countries did this interesting thing with the socialism idea. They had this big pot of money and they leveled the playing field across the country. Everyone got roads, bridges, educatioal funding, and people services.
After a while, with economic information being more developed, people started to realize that various sections of a country....say with 20-percent of the population....were funding forty-percent of the national tax revenue pot of funding. In a country like Spain....there were fifty provinces. Four of these....make up what is called Catalonia today (Barcelona, Girona, Lleida, and Tarragona). That one region carries an enormous contribution of tax revenue that covers the rest of Spain (223 billion Euro a year flow from Catalonia to Madrid). That's about 20-percent of the national spending.
Having this economic information available for the public to read....makes for a very uncomfortable situation. Most people in the higher revenue-making regions now ask questions. Why do they have to support or sponsor lesser income regions? On top of that, various political agendas are being created which actively pokes at this issue, and makes the political folks sweat over these discussions.
The politicians back at the central government? Well...they'd just like to 'gift-out' everyone and get appreciated. The idea that you'd ask about more services for your state or region....than another state or region....because you put more money into the pot? Well....you are making this a bit complicated.
If any of these attempts are successful?
Now we get into the beef of the whole discussion. Let's say that four of the most norther provinces of Italy (the wealth-making section of Italy) went off and separated into one single nation. What remains is roughly 75-percent of what you see in Italy today. Wealth-wise? They'd only be able to generate about sixty-five percent of the income that this one northern region is making. It would be difficult to hand out all of the fine wealth-redistribution money that typically goes out each month. Within three or four years, you'd have this remainder of the nation looking at lesser revenues and unable to balance out the the system that they were used to enjoying.
Around all of Europe? There are probably a dozen regions which know their wealth potential and seem to be frustrated over the lack of return tax revenue into their state. Fixing this? Just about impossible.
When you look at most countries in Europe (the bigger ones)....they were based on a language situation, and little else when they were incorporated as they look today.
But there's this odd problem that popped up in various countries (Belgium, England, Italy, Germany, Spain, France, etc).....as nations grew through the 1980s and 1990s....it was apparent that various regions made money, which turned into tax revenue. And various regions of a country had marginal industry, tourism, agriculture and services....which translated into....well, lesser tax revenue.
Leadership in countries did this interesting thing with the socialism idea. They had this big pot of money and they leveled the playing field across the country. Everyone got roads, bridges, educatioal funding, and people services.
After a while, with economic information being more developed, people started to realize that various sections of a country....say with 20-percent of the population....were funding forty-percent of the national tax revenue pot of funding. In a country like Spain....there were fifty provinces. Four of these....make up what is called Catalonia today (Barcelona, Girona, Lleida, and Tarragona). That one region carries an enormous contribution of tax revenue that covers the rest of Spain (223 billion Euro a year flow from Catalonia to Madrid). That's about 20-percent of the national spending.
Having this economic information available for the public to read....makes for a very uncomfortable situation. Most people in the higher revenue-making regions now ask questions. Why do they have to support or sponsor lesser income regions? On top of that, various political agendas are being created which actively pokes at this issue, and makes the political folks sweat over these discussions.
The politicians back at the central government? Well...they'd just like to 'gift-out' everyone and get appreciated. The idea that you'd ask about more services for your state or region....than another state or region....because you put more money into the pot? Well....you are making this a bit complicated.
If any of these attempts are successful?
Now we get into the beef of the whole discussion. Let's say that four of the most norther provinces of Italy (the wealth-making section of Italy) went off and separated into one single nation. What remains is roughly 75-percent of what you see in Italy today. Wealth-wise? They'd only be able to generate about sixty-five percent of the income that this one northern region is making. It would be difficult to hand out all of the fine wealth-redistribution money that typically goes out each month. Within three or four years, you'd have this remainder of the nation looking at lesser revenues and unable to balance out the the system that they were used to enjoying.
Around all of Europe? There are probably a dozen regions which know their wealth potential and seem to be frustrated over the lack of return tax revenue into their state. Fixing this? Just about impossible.
E-Car Summary
Focus brought this up today....over charging stations for electric cars....public charging stations.
Right now, Hamburg (city) is the leader in Germany for public charging stations....774. Berlin is second with 628, and Stuttgart sitting there in third with 402 charging stations.
If you travel around the country, you generally notice the public charging stations to be at autobahn rest-stops, car-parks (both above and below ground), and in super-markets. Last year, via a regional TV news summary....I noted one at some small village parking lot (no more than four parking spots), just off a autobahn and next to a McDonalds.
To convince the German public of electric cars to be the way to go....you will need more public charging stations.
Right now, Bavaria leads the state totals with 2,503 public charging stations.
Nationally, they are nearing 11,000 public charging points, for the roughly 100,000 electric cars in operation around the country.
The strategy of German ownership and operation? You generally buy the car (an expensive experiment) as your second car. You have a charging port in your garage or basement....recharging it each night as you come home. No one talks about mileage but one might look at the general range (300 kilometers usually, unless you have the E-GO car with the 180 kilometer range or the Tesla with the 500 kilometer range). As long as you work within a 100 kilometer range....it would make general sense. Using the car for weekend trips? Well....now you get into planning and accepting the idea of having 90 minutes at some public point to chill out while recharging. So previously, you would have made a weekend 400 kilometer trip with just planning around the hotel and sights....now you have to incorporate the recharge event....probably on two occasions.
The thing that gets me about the 'experiment' is that it's a remarkable amount of money involved. The E-Go car (when it's starting up on sales in spring of 2018) will go in the 16,000 to 18,000 Euro range, but it's a fairly small car. You can figure for a family of five, you'd be talking about a larger class vehicle and nearer to 35,000 to 45,000 Euro. I would suggest for the average working-class German....bringing home roughly 18,000 Euro after taxes....this group of choices won't make the car affordable. Even when we get to 2030 and this mandatory nature of only battery-cars being the choice for new car sales.....I have some doubts that most Germans can afford the 'experiment'. Used gas cars being around for decades? Yes, that's my prediction. Anyone who thinks the industry is dead and these parts will disappear? No....I doubt it.
Right now, Hamburg (city) is the leader in Germany for public charging stations....774. Berlin is second with 628, and Stuttgart sitting there in third with 402 charging stations.
If you travel around the country, you generally notice the public charging stations to be at autobahn rest-stops, car-parks (both above and below ground), and in super-markets. Last year, via a regional TV news summary....I noted one at some small village parking lot (no more than four parking spots), just off a autobahn and next to a McDonalds.
To convince the German public of electric cars to be the way to go....you will need more public charging stations.
Right now, Bavaria leads the state totals with 2,503 public charging stations.
Nationally, they are nearing 11,000 public charging points, for the roughly 100,000 electric cars in operation around the country.
The strategy of German ownership and operation? You generally buy the car (an expensive experiment) as your second car. You have a charging port in your garage or basement....recharging it each night as you come home. No one talks about mileage but one might look at the general range (300 kilometers usually, unless you have the E-GO car with the 180 kilometer range or the Tesla with the 500 kilometer range). As long as you work within a 100 kilometer range....it would make general sense. Using the car for weekend trips? Well....now you get into planning and accepting the idea of having 90 minutes at some public point to chill out while recharging. So previously, you would have made a weekend 400 kilometer trip with just planning around the hotel and sights....now you have to incorporate the recharge event....probably on two occasions.
The thing that gets me about the 'experiment' is that it's a remarkable amount of money involved. The E-Go car (when it's starting up on sales in spring of 2018) will go in the 16,000 to 18,000 Euro range, but it's a fairly small car. You can figure for a family of five, you'd be talking about a larger class vehicle and nearer to 35,000 to 45,000 Euro. I would suggest for the average working-class German....bringing home roughly 18,000 Euro after taxes....this group of choices won't make the car affordable. Even when we get to 2030 and this mandatory nature of only battery-cars being the choice for new car sales.....I have some doubts that most Germans can afford the 'experiment'. Used gas cars being around for decades? Yes, that's my prediction. Anyone who thinks the industry is dead and these parts will disappear? No....I doubt it.
German Census
The topic came up on the news last night. It's an interesting episode.
Back in 2011....the EU determined that Germany needed to accomplish a census. The last one prior to that? That's a curious part of this story....for West Germany, 1987. For East Germany....1981. Twenty-four years inbetween? Yes.
Why? German census authorities go and collect data, and in the end....that reflects upon the amount of money handed out by the federal government. So every single census has consequences and this draws cities into court activity to sue and change the numbers. Yeah....it's a lousy way to manage budgets but you need census numbers to agree with what the city wants as a budget package.
So no one really wants to do a census in Germany. It just means trouble when you add up the numbers. But in this case.....the EU demanded it.
What happened for 2011? Two cities lost a fair amount of income. Hamburg and Berlin. The census said they had less people than they claimed. Both said that the census was incorrect and wanted it changed. The court now gets dragged into this discussion.
Berlin lost 470 million Euro....Hamburg roughly 117-million Euro. It's a big chunk of money.
Added to this....the lesser population given to both....changes their dynamics on representation in the Bundestag.
The odds of another census occurring? If you read through everything, it's something that the German federal government would prefer to avoid. It sounds silly but it's just opening up a can of worms and making a two-year long court case out of the mess, and involving judges who have to invent a way to give fake numbers back to the cities who lost population.
Back in 2011....the EU determined that Germany needed to accomplish a census. The last one prior to that? That's a curious part of this story....for West Germany, 1987. For East Germany....1981. Twenty-four years inbetween? Yes.
Why? German census authorities go and collect data, and in the end....that reflects upon the amount of money handed out by the federal government. So every single census has consequences and this draws cities into court activity to sue and change the numbers. Yeah....it's a lousy way to manage budgets but you need census numbers to agree with what the city wants as a budget package.
So no one really wants to do a census in Germany. It just means trouble when you add up the numbers. But in this case.....the EU demanded it.
What happened for 2011? Two cities lost a fair amount of income. Hamburg and Berlin. The census said they had less people than they claimed. Both said that the census was incorrect and wanted it changed. The court now gets dragged into this discussion.
Berlin lost 470 million Euro....Hamburg roughly 117-million Euro. It's a big chunk of money.
Added to this....the lesser population given to both....changes their dynamics on representation in the Bundestag.
The odds of another census occurring? If you read through everything, it's something that the German federal government would prefer to avoid. It sounds silly but it's just opening up a can of worms and making a two-year long court case out of the mess, and involving judges who have to invent a way to give fake numbers back to the cities who lost population.
On the Topic of Affordable Housing
The Monday night 'Hart aber Fair' (Hard but Fair) public forum on ARD was centered on the lack of affordable housing. I watched around 15 minutes of the show.
If you live anywhere in the shadow of Frankfurt, you know of the problem and the inability of the government to correct this mess. Even the rental brake which was built by politicians, has almost no value.
One item out of last night's episode which I hadn't grasped in the whole story told.....was brought up by Alexander Graf Lambsdorff....in fifteen years, as a society, building regulations went from 5,000 to 20,000.
When you sit down now and form the idea to build a structure....you have to contend with the 20,000 regulations. No one puts a number on the cost factor, but I would make a guess that a regular apartment building with 20 apartments built in the late 1990s....would cost double that price today. So when you look at the money being put up.....either you buy for the premium renters (way above what regular people can pay), or you build for a condo-buyer.
If you put 300 to 600 Euro for Frankfurt as rent and do a Scout-24 search on property....what you tend to find is 20 to 40 square meters of property for a single person (a small unit). 600 Euro just won't cut in the city anymore for a family. 800 to 1,000 Euro is what typically buys you a 60 to 75 square meter place (big enough for a family of three). For a lot of people, it's a costly situation.
If you were willing to live 20 kilometers outside of Frankfurt (like in Eppstein)? That's the curious change to the problem. You can find a 60-to-70 square meter apartment for 400 to 600 Euro. What you would have to accept is the train-ride into the city for your work situation (figure around 35 minutes). A lot of people want the city landscape in their face twenty-four hours a day. Eppstein? A small mountainous village that isn't that urbanized but has the S-Bahn railway station to connect into Frankfurt.
The push here by the intellectuals is that they want the German urban city governments to take over the building business and get involved in renting out affordable housing units. The problem with this suggestion is that they get saddled with the construction costs (with the 20,000 regulations attached to the bill), and then they sit and see the monthly revenue never covering the initial costs, and they have to worry about renovation costs in 30 years. It would be simple to dream up a plan for a 120 unit apartment house, but you'd have to admit it's a money-losing experience before you lay one single brick.
As for the 20,000 regulations....why?
I think the best example of this relates to the recent problem seen with the Dortmund 'Hannibal' apartment building. In the mid-1970s....this residential building was built in the suburb of Dortmund-Dorstfeld . It's roughly eight buildings.....attached....some going up to 16 floors, with 412 apartments. It's a combination of studio, two-bedroom and three-bedroom apartments.
Back around twenty years ago, it had reached a stage where renovation was required. They had a listing of things that needed to be done. But by 2005....the company managing this....had gone bankrupt. Some of the renovation project was done....some simply left there. Every couple of years, the property would be sold off to another company and each discovering that it was a mess and need of massive funding to wrap up the renovation.
About six weeks ago....the city fire inspectors came through and said enough....shutting down the building. Four-hundred families or individuals affected. Fix? It doesn't appear the the folks who own the building currently can pay for the renovation required. The city says it won't re-certify the building until x-number of repairs are made.
The regulations were made for cases like this and to prevent unsafe living conditions to exist.
My guess is that the court will go through a long debate and end up awarding the structure to some company, who will go and fix it to the regulations required....then raise the rent by more than double....thus ending it as an option for affordable housing. As much as the German authorities try to fix things and make them right....in the end....it will only make it worse.
If you live anywhere in the shadow of Frankfurt, you know of the problem and the inability of the government to correct this mess. Even the rental brake which was built by politicians, has almost no value.
One item out of last night's episode which I hadn't grasped in the whole story told.....was brought up by Alexander Graf Lambsdorff....in fifteen years, as a society, building regulations went from 5,000 to 20,000.
When you sit down now and form the idea to build a structure....you have to contend with the 20,000 regulations. No one puts a number on the cost factor, but I would make a guess that a regular apartment building with 20 apartments built in the late 1990s....would cost double that price today. So when you look at the money being put up.....either you buy for the premium renters (way above what regular people can pay), or you build for a condo-buyer.
If you put 300 to 600 Euro for Frankfurt as rent and do a Scout-24 search on property....what you tend to find is 20 to 40 square meters of property for a single person (a small unit). 600 Euro just won't cut in the city anymore for a family. 800 to 1,000 Euro is what typically buys you a 60 to 75 square meter place (big enough for a family of three). For a lot of people, it's a costly situation.
If you were willing to live 20 kilometers outside of Frankfurt (like in Eppstein)? That's the curious change to the problem. You can find a 60-to-70 square meter apartment for 400 to 600 Euro. What you would have to accept is the train-ride into the city for your work situation (figure around 35 minutes). A lot of people want the city landscape in their face twenty-four hours a day. Eppstein? A small mountainous village that isn't that urbanized but has the S-Bahn railway station to connect into Frankfurt.
The push here by the intellectuals is that they want the German urban city governments to take over the building business and get involved in renting out affordable housing units. The problem with this suggestion is that they get saddled with the construction costs (with the 20,000 regulations attached to the bill), and then they sit and see the monthly revenue never covering the initial costs, and they have to worry about renovation costs in 30 years. It would be simple to dream up a plan for a 120 unit apartment house, but you'd have to admit it's a money-losing experience before you lay one single brick.
As for the 20,000 regulations....why?
I think the best example of this relates to the recent problem seen with the Dortmund 'Hannibal' apartment building. In the mid-1970s....this residential building was built in the suburb of Dortmund-Dorstfeld . It's roughly eight buildings.....attached....some going up to 16 floors, with 412 apartments. It's a combination of studio, two-bedroom and three-bedroom apartments.
Back around twenty years ago, it had reached a stage where renovation was required. They had a listing of things that needed to be done. But by 2005....the company managing this....had gone bankrupt. Some of the renovation project was done....some simply left there. Every couple of years, the property would be sold off to another company and each discovering that it was a mess and need of massive funding to wrap up the renovation.
About six weeks ago....the city fire inspectors came through and said enough....shutting down the building. Four-hundred families or individuals affected. Fix? It doesn't appear the the folks who own the building currently can pay for the renovation required. The city says it won't re-certify the building until x-number of repairs are made.
The regulations were made for cases like this and to prevent unsafe living conditions to exist.
My guess is that the court will go through a long debate and end up awarding the structure to some company, who will go and fix it to the regulations required....then raise the rent by more than double....thus ending it as an option for affordable housing. As much as the German authorities try to fix things and make them right....in the end....it will only make it worse.
Monday, October 23, 2017
Two Vice-Chancellors?
German Basic Law (the Constitution) says that there will be one single Chancellor, and one single Vice-Chancellor. Period.
Well, in the coalition talks of the past week....it's now obvious that the Greens want a change in the law, and they want two Vice-Chancellors to exist.
How this comes up? Well...in the vote count, the FDP (the other party in this coalition talk)...has more votes and would typically be the one to come up and get the Vice-Chancellor position (in normal situations). The Greens want a second Vice-Chancellor position.
The FDP comment to this? The news media has been careful not to say much from the FDP about this.
If they did go and re-write the Basic Law to create the second Vice-Chancellor position....who would out-rank who....Vice-Chancellor #1 or #2? And if some did say it was somewhat agreeable....why wouldn't the CSU stand up and say that they want a Vice-Chancellor slot as well, and there might as well be three of these positions.
The odds of this factor making the four-way coalition to work? You'd have to go and re-write the German constitution and I just don't see people being enthusiastic to make this happen. Even having some intellectual journalist try to explain this to the public.....becomes a big joke.
If Kohl were around and in the middle of this mess....he'd say fine....he'd make all members of the entire coalition....Vice-Chancellors, and everyday, it'd flip to the next guy. He'd be grinning as he suggested this.
Well, in the coalition talks of the past week....it's now obvious that the Greens want a change in the law, and they want two Vice-Chancellors to exist.
How this comes up? Well...in the vote count, the FDP (the other party in this coalition talk)...has more votes and would typically be the one to come up and get the Vice-Chancellor position (in normal situations). The Greens want a second Vice-Chancellor position.
The FDP comment to this? The news media has been careful not to say much from the FDP about this.
If they did go and re-write the Basic Law to create the second Vice-Chancellor position....who would out-rank who....Vice-Chancellor #1 or #2? And if some did say it was somewhat agreeable....why wouldn't the CSU stand up and say that they want a Vice-Chancellor slot as well, and there might as well be three of these positions.
The odds of this factor making the four-way coalition to work? You'd have to go and re-write the German constitution and I just don't see people being enthusiastic to make this happen. Even having some intellectual journalist try to explain this to the public.....becomes a big joke.
If Kohl were around and in the middle of this mess....he'd say fine....he'd make all members of the entire coalition....Vice-Chancellors, and everyday, it'd flip to the next guy. He'd be grinning as he suggested this.
The Saving-the-World Coaltion
The talks continue between the CDU/CSU folks with the German Green Party and the FDP Party. To build a coalition after this election, it's a bit of a long stretch to involve the Green Party into this type of agreement. Focus carried a brief story over this situation.
So it came up from an interview with one of the top FDP political figures.....Wolfgang Kubicki....discussed the talks so far and the problems associated with this 'mess'.
About a week ago, before the talks started up....he made it clear in his opinion that there was only a 50-percent chance of this working out.
In his commentary yesterday....he pointed out that one of the big points in the CSU participation in this coalition....is that full-time detention centers will be established for immigrants coming into the country. Then he pointed out....the Green Party will do everything possible to prevent this for humanitarian reasons.
Then he made this key comment: "They really believe they are called to save the world. If you approach certain things with such a sense of conscience, then pragmatism, which is embodied by the Free Democrats, for example, is a completely different world."
A decade ago, I would have laughed over the 'saving-the-world' comment. Today? In an average week, you will see at least a dozen interviews or slanted-news-pieces where 'saving-the-world' is hyped up and gives you some sense of pleasure (at least the journalist or politician thinks you feel this way). For a number of months, the hyped-up chat over bio-foods was pro-saving-the-world. In the last year, some food experts have pushed back and said that it's not exactly saving-the-world.
The wind energy business? That was saving-the-world for a while, and then they counted up the dead bird population from hitting the blades. Now, wind energy is not so much saving-the-world.
I would take a guess that approximately five percent of the German population are currently on some kick to save-the-world. Saving immigrants could be saving-the-world....setting speed limits could be saving-the-world....mandating carbon taxes when you buy airline tickets could be saving-the-world-world....making you bring your own bags into the grocery to carry out your groceries could be saving-the-world.
Putting a government together to save-the-world? You just kinda shake your head and wonder. This might be an indication in six weeks that it can't be put together, and you end up with another election by February.
So it came up from an interview with one of the top FDP political figures.....Wolfgang Kubicki....discussed the talks so far and the problems associated with this 'mess'.
About a week ago, before the talks started up....he made it clear in his opinion that there was only a 50-percent chance of this working out.
In his commentary yesterday....he pointed out that one of the big points in the CSU participation in this coalition....is that full-time detention centers will be established for immigrants coming into the country. Then he pointed out....the Green Party will do everything possible to prevent this for humanitarian reasons.
Then he made this key comment: "They really believe they are called to save the world. If you approach certain things with such a sense of conscience, then pragmatism, which is embodied by the Free Democrats, for example, is a completely different world."
A decade ago, I would have laughed over the 'saving-the-world' comment. Today? In an average week, you will see at least a dozen interviews or slanted-news-pieces where 'saving-the-world' is hyped up and gives you some sense of pleasure (at least the journalist or politician thinks you feel this way). For a number of months, the hyped-up chat over bio-foods was pro-saving-the-world. In the last year, some food experts have pushed back and said that it's not exactly saving-the-world.
The wind energy business? That was saving-the-world for a while, and then they counted up the dead bird population from hitting the blades. Now, wind energy is not so much saving-the-world.
I would take a guess that approximately five percent of the German population are currently on some kick to save-the-world. Saving immigrants could be saving-the-world....setting speed limits could be saving-the-world....mandating carbon taxes when you buy airline tickets could be saving-the-world-world....making you bring your own bags into the grocery to carry out your groceries could be saving-the-world.
Putting a government together to save-the-world? You just kinda shake your head and wonder. This might be an indication in six weeks that it can't be put together, and you end up with another election by February.
Sunday, October 22, 2017
Italy Situation
The two? Lombardia (far north central region and fairly wealthy), and Veneto (northeast, and also fairly wealthy).
Most problems like Spain? Well, here's the thing about Spain and tax revenue. If you took the top eight most northern states of Italy....it's filling about 50-percent of the tax revenue for the nation. You can figure that that one-third of the nation is carrying sixty-percent of the revenue production of the country....roughly.
So there is some hostility that they aren't getting their fair share back. The issue here is that only two states are going to the extent of a vote. Basically, they are taking the first step toward what you see in Spain.
Saturday, October 21, 2017
Germans and Public TV
It's a political topic that is going to generate interest. The idea is....to merge the two public TV networks (ARD and ZDF) into one single operation.
Politically.....CDU folks are mostly against it (48-percent). Same for the SPD voters (58-percent). But it appears that the general public likes the idea.
Who will be strongly against it? I think the news people for ARD and ZDF will be strongly against it because they know that a fair sum of folks will be let go.
The truth is that between the two public networks, there's at least twelve different news programs per day. There's probably at least 150 journalists between the networks who live and work outside of Germany.....providing signature-newscasts everyday to their host network.
From a budget standpoint....it makes sense to merge them. The odds of this? Probably less than a 10-percent chance.
Politically.....CDU folks are mostly against it (48-percent). Same for the SPD voters (58-percent). But it appears that the general public likes the idea.
Who will be strongly against it? I think the news people for ARD and ZDF will be strongly against it because they know that a fair sum of folks will be let go.
The truth is that between the two public networks, there's at least twelve different news programs per day. There's probably at least 150 journalists between the networks who live and work outside of Germany.....providing signature-newscasts everyday to their host network.
From a budget standpoint....it makes sense to merge them. The odds of this? Probably less than a 10-percent chance.
Pension Folks in Germany
It was an interesting piece written up by ARD (public Channel One) in Germany today. It discusses German retirees....who don't live in Germany.
What few people realize is that there are around 1.7 million German folks who retire and exit the country....for various reasons. Some want a cheaper place to live. Some want a safer place. Some want a chaper old folk's home. Some want a particular lifestyle.
What the numbers say over the past two decades is that more Germans now exit the country....almost double what it was in 1990.
Most popular location? Italy (374,000 Germans).
Spain comes in second with 227,000. Greece third with 101,000.
It surprised me with 69,000 folks retiring in Turkey. Course, they can't say if these are German-Germans or German-Turks.
96,000 Germans reside in the US on retirement. Australia has 31,000.
The trend? Well, it's doubled in twenty years, and I kinda expect the number to double again by 2037. The truth is, as you retire around age 60 to 66....you only have X-amount of income and it simply doesn't work well with the idea of staying in Germany. If you toss in the weather business.....that only complicates things with the typical snowfall and cold temperatures.
What few people realize is that there are around 1.7 million German folks who retire and exit the country....for various reasons. Some want a cheaper place to live. Some want a safer place. Some want a chaper old folk's home. Some want a particular lifestyle.
What the numbers say over the past two decades is that more Germans now exit the country....almost double what it was in 1990.
Most popular location? Italy (374,000 Germans).
Spain comes in second with 227,000. Greece third with 101,000.
It surprised me with 69,000 folks retiring in Turkey. Course, they can't say if these are German-Germans or German-Turks.
96,000 Germans reside in the US on retirement. Australia has 31,000.
The trend? Well, it's doubled in twenty years, and I kinda expect the number to double again by 2037. The truth is, as you retire around age 60 to 66....you only have X-amount of income and it simply doesn't work well with the idea of staying in Germany. If you toss in the weather business.....that only complicates things with the typical snowfall and cold temperatures.
Friday, October 20, 2017
Why do Two Public TV Networks Exist in Germany?
This is an interesting history lesson.
So originally....ARD (Channel One) was created out of Hamburg. It was written into the rules that it was a state-by-state network....meaning that the states of West Germany at the time (mid-1950s) had a control arm over the network...NOT the federal government itself.
In the early 1960s under Chancellor Adenauer, a draft idea came up to create a second network. It would not be a state-by-state apparatus.....it would be a federalized public network. Competition, in some aspects. Whatever news was generated by the Hamburg Channel One folks....there would be a news department of Channel Two, and it'd have a federal flavor to it.
Four German states lead a legal effort to stop Channel Two. In the end, the German Constitutional Court stepped in. The decision was....Channel Two would be controlled by the same rules as Channel One. It'd be a state-by-state ownership thing.
Rather than stopping Channel Two or simply integrating it into the Channel One empire (ARD)....they allowed it to function. It's just that the money or budget side of this would be a ARD thing. ZDF would report to ARD.
That's how you end up with two major public TV networks in Germany.
Now, if you ask....why did Adenauer go to this amount of trouble? Well....there is some belief that the SPD political folks had infiltrated Channel One (ARD) to such an extent in terms of news and chat forums....that you needed a counter-balance to present the conservative message. As silly as it sounds....this perception in 1961 existed.
The necessity today in keeping two major networks funded? Well....this comes up yearly and a fair number of Germans think that the cost factor is worth discussing. Eventually, there's going to be some massive change dumping one of the networks.
So originally....ARD (Channel One) was created out of Hamburg. It was written into the rules that it was a state-by-state network....meaning that the states of West Germany at the time (mid-1950s) had a control arm over the network...NOT the federal government itself.
In the early 1960s under Chancellor Adenauer, a draft idea came up to create a second network. It would not be a state-by-state apparatus.....it would be a federalized public network. Competition, in some aspects. Whatever news was generated by the Hamburg Channel One folks....there would be a news department of Channel Two, and it'd have a federal flavor to it.
Four German states lead a legal effort to stop Channel Two. In the end, the German Constitutional Court stepped in. The decision was....Channel Two would be controlled by the same rules as Channel One. It'd be a state-by-state ownership thing.
Rather than stopping Channel Two or simply integrating it into the Channel One empire (ARD)....they allowed it to function. It's just that the money or budget side of this would be a ARD thing. ZDF would report to ARD.
That's how you end up with two major public TV networks in Germany.
Now, if you ask....why did Adenauer go to this amount of trouble? Well....there is some belief that the SPD political folks had infiltrated Channel One (ARD) to such an extent in terms of news and chat forums....that you needed a counter-balance to present the conservative message. As silly as it sounds....this perception in 1961 existed.
The necessity today in keeping two major networks funded? Well....this comes up yearly and a fair number of Germans think that the cost factor is worth discussing. Eventually, there's going to be some massive change dumping one of the networks.
Catalonia Update
For the past week, I've been watching the pace of things in Spain and Catalonia go back and forth.
What appears likely now (happening tomorrow - Saturday)....is that Article 155 of the Constitution will be activated by the federal government of Spain.
They wil revoke the regional agreement of the state of Catalonia and Madrid, and begin the process of bringing them 'back in'. How?
Well, it's suggested now that new elections will be forced onto Catalonia in January. The Prime Minister (Rajoy) thinks this will lead Catalonia back to the right attitude.
Problems?
Well....you can only run an election if you have candidates. My guess is that most of the parties in the region will refuse to play along or nominate candidates. Some might go to the extent of nominating insane members of the public to represent them in Madrid, or possibly electing criminals.
Then, you have the problem of polling places. My guess is that half of the general public who are poll managers....will bluntly say 'no' and will refuse to run the polling station. Those forced into managing the poll stations? They will probably call in sick on election day in mass numbers (my guess is that 90-percent will fail to show up).
The military running this? You'd have to come up with enough people to run roughly 2,300 polling sites in Catalonia (mostly at schools). You'd be talking about at least 20,000 troops required, with another twenty-thousand cops in protection operations.
If you only had 7-percent of the registered public to vote in the election....would that make it even a valid election? If you tried to suggest this to the news media....folks would laugh over the commentary.
You could have entire neighborhoods where no one shows up. Or you could have teens showing up to intimidate the police or military into reacting as 'thugs'.
As bad as it might be now....come January, I see this only getting worse.
What appears likely now (happening tomorrow - Saturday)....is that Article 155 of the Constitution will be activated by the federal government of Spain.
They wil revoke the regional agreement of the state of Catalonia and Madrid, and begin the process of bringing them 'back in'. How?
Well, it's suggested now that new elections will be forced onto Catalonia in January. The Prime Minister (Rajoy) thinks this will lead Catalonia back to the right attitude.
Problems?
Well....you can only run an election if you have candidates. My guess is that most of the parties in the region will refuse to play along or nominate candidates. Some might go to the extent of nominating insane members of the public to represent them in Madrid, or possibly electing criminals.
Then, you have the problem of polling places. My guess is that half of the general public who are poll managers....will bluntly say 'no' and will refuse to run the polling station. Those forced into managing the poll stations? They will probably call in sick on election day in mass numbers (my guess is that 90-percent will fail to show up).
The military running this? You'd have to come up with enough people to run roughly 2,300 polling sites in Catalonia (mostly at schools). You'd be talking about at least 20,000 troops required, with another twenty-thousand cops in protection operations.
If you only had 7-percent of the registered public to vote in the election....would that make it even a valid election? If you tried to suggest this to the news media....folks would laugh over the commentary.
You could have entire neighborhoods where no one shows up. Or you could have teens showing up to intimidate the police or military into reacting as 'thugs'.
As bad as it might be now....come January, I see this only getting worse.
The Foreigner Survey Story
Focus went out and did a survey with foreigners in Europe and Germany, which had an interesting outcome. Of roughly a thousand people interviewed.....roughly a quarter of them were German resident foreigners.
What the survey found out was that most people came for economic advantages. About one in three spoke to the idea of moving up the career ladder.
Almost a third of the group spoke up about training and financial advantages.
In the case of Spain.....some spoke of the pleasant weather.
Then you come to this odd question that was asked on foreigners who'd come to Germany and the question was....did you come because of the 'nice Germans'? Only 8-percent said yes.
It's an odd question and I would imagine that most Syrians and Iraqis were sitting there and asking themselves....what did they really mean? "Nice" Germans?
In the intellectual discussion....Germans (at least the journalists and intellectuals) want this odd feeling at the end of the day over the open-door policy that everything done....was wonderfully appreciated. The 'good German' suggestion should come....to turn around the 'Nazi German' theme that most feel shame over.
I know....it's an odd discussion that you'd typically have after five shots of some German liquor, and a beer or two.
The thing is, if you'd posed the question with the theme of benefits and which country had the best deal for incoming migrants and refugees....well....Germany would have gotten a 95-percent positive out of that. But that would have shamed the Germans too much because it suggests that money is the root of this whole discussion. And you can't suggest that.
So the intellectual German is sitting there and a bit dazed.....he'd like to feel super-positive but this is all he can really squeeze out of this mess.
What the survey found out was that most people came for economic advantages. About one in three spoke to the idea of moving up the career ladder.
Almost a third of the group spoke up about training and financial advantages.
In the case of Spain.....some spoke of the pleasant weather.
Then you come to this odd question that was asked on foreigners who'd come to Germany and the question was....did you come because of the 'nice Germans'? Only 8-percent said yes.
It's an odd question and I would imagine that most Syrians and Iraqis were sitting there and asking themselves....what did they really mean? "Nice" Germans?
In the intellectual discussion....Germans (at least the journalists and intellectuals) want this odd feeling at the end of the day over the open-door policy that everything done....was wonderfully appreciated. The 'good German' suggestion should come....to turn around the 'Nazi German' theme that most feel shame over.
I know....it's an odd discussion that you'd typically have after five shots of some German liquor, and a beer or two.
The thing is, if you'd posed the question with the theme of benefits and which country had the best deal for incoming migrants and refugees....well....Germany would have gotten a 95-percent positive out of that. But that would have shamed the Germans too much because it suggests that money is the root of this whole discussion. And you can't suggest that.
So the intellectual German is sitting there and a bit dazed.....he'd like to feel super-positive but this is all he can really squeeze out of this mess.
Thursday, October 19, 2017
German Public TV Story
Focus brought up an interesting story today from the online magazine DWDL.
The topic? There is this discussion going on ARD (the German public TV network) to reform itself....in essence becoming a 'shop-window' for state networks (the sub-networks that exist now).
Even the discussion of this idea.....got the German Cultural Council all hyped up. All of this comes up at the end of this week when state Prime Ministers are meeting in an annual conference, and the topic is being listed as a item to be talked about.
You can divide German TV into two chunks....public TV and private TV. The commercial side has been around since the mid-1980s and met a lot of hostility by the public TV crowd. Just about every single conceivable angle to halt them and their creation...was attempted.
What you see today for public TV is one 'mother-hen' (ARD)....which takes the pot of money and distributes it into the 'sister-hen' (ZDF), the public radio network, and roughly twenty sub-networks (some state-related, some kid-related, some art-related young-people-related).
The general commentary by the bulk of Germans under the age of thirty is that it's a growing number who aren't watching public TV. My son (German in nature) will vouch that it's been now ten years since he last watched a single minute of German public-TV. The bulk of what he watches is data-streaming from Netflix and Amazon, with an occasional hour or two per month from the commercial networks.
If you do the numbers....in about a decade, you will have about fifty-percent of the general public who aren't interested in supporting state public-TV anymore. It'll flip into a political topic and someone will convince the public to either dismantle the public TV system entirely, or downsize it in a dramatic way. I think this discussion here with the German Cultural Council is simply the opening of this political topic.
The topic? There is this discussion going on ARD (the German public TV network) to reform itself....in essence becoming a 'shop-window' for state networks (the sub-networks that exist now).
Even the discussion of this idea.....got the German Cultural Council all hyped up. All of this comes up at the end of this week when state Prime Ministers are meeting in an annual conference, and the topic is being listed as a item to be talked about.
You can divide German TV into two chunks....public TV and private TV. The commercial side has been around since the mid-1980s and met a lot of hostility by the public TV crowd. Just about every single conceivable angle to halt them and their creation...was attempted.
What you see today for public TV is one 'mother-hen' (ARD)....which takes the pot of money and distributes it into the 'sister-hen' (ZDF), the public radio network, and roughly twenty sub-networks (some state-related, some kid-related, some art-related young-people-related).
The general commentary by the bulk of Germans under the age of thirty is that it's a growing number who aren't watching public TV. My son (German in nature) will vouch that it's been now ten years since he last watched a single minute of German public-TV. The bulk of what he watches is data-streaming from Netflix and Amazon, with an occasional hour or two per month from the commercial networks.
If you do the numbers....in about a decade, you will have about fifty-percent of the general public who aren't interested in supporting state public-TV anymore. It'll flip into a political topic and someone will convince the public to either dismantle the public TV system entirely, or downsize it in a dramatic way. I think this discussion here with the German Cultural Council is simply the opening of this political topic.
The Swedish Book Story
At some point probably six months ago (more or less), some Swedish journalist by the name of Inti Chavez Perez, woke up and had this vision. He's a young Swede, and it's unlikely that a older Swede would have come to this vision. The idea? He'd write a 'how-to book' on sex and relationships in Sweden....designed for immigrants.
No, it wouldn't be the 99 different positions, or a page-by-page description of bondage practices. It would be about the flirtatious behavior....the chit-chat phase....the stages of a date and how you reach the 'important' conclusion, etc.
The book? "Me and You".
I read through the various stories on Perez and his study of the whole topic. He actually went out and talked to young migrants, older Swedes, and regular people.
In his work....he even had to go and ask questions that typically wouldn't concern a Swede, but would concern a third-world guy with no real background knowledge (example: “Is masturbation dangerous?”)
I sat and pondered upon this whole process. In the race by the intellectuals of Europe to demonstrate their great acceptance of multi-cultural people, there was no thinking to the idea that so many people coming through the doorway would not be at the same level of understanding as the intellectuals or the people of Europe.
If you go up to Germans and bring up the topic of nude-beaches....they will go over a 3x5 inch card of information and just say that some people do it in Germany, and that it's not a big deal. Out of 82-million Germans, I would take a humble guess that less than 400,000 would be seen once a year at a nude-beach. People accept the behavior but it's a national trend.
If you went up to a German pub and brought up flirting, you'd get a hundred different explanations of how Germans flirt. The old guys would give you a pretty conservative view.....the young guys would give you a fairly liberal view. Most German women over the age of thirty will list out at least twenty male behavioral trends which make a date possibility 'zero'.
The added problem here is that you have a pretty fair number of the incoming migrants and immigrants who came out of ultra-conservative nations. Just standing in the middle of a German swimming pool and noting the women in bathing suits.....that gets them all hyped-up and thinking it's almost a bordello-operation.
This Swedish guy....Perez? Well, he's probably correct and doing something that has value. But getting this information out in front of a bunch of young men, and insisting that behavioral modification is necessary? That's going to be a rough one.
No, it wouldn't be the 99 different positions, or a page-by-page description of bondage practices. It would be about the flirtatious behavior....the chit-chat phase....the stages of a date and how you reach the 'important' conclusion, etc.
The book? "Me and You".
I read through the various stories on Perez and his study of the whole topic. He actually went out and talked to young migrants, older Swedes, and regular people.
In his work....he even had to go and ask questions that typically wouldn't concern a Swede, but would concern a third-world guy with no real background knowledge (example: “Is masturbation dangerous?”)
I sat and pondered upon this whole process. In the race by the intellectuals of Europe to demonstrate their great acceptance of multi-cultural people, there was no thinking to the idea that so many people coming through the doorway would not be at the same level of understanding as the intellectuals or the people of Europe.
If you go up to Germans and bring up the topic of nude-beaches....they will go over a 3x5 inch card of information and just say that some people do it in Germany, and that it's not a big deal. Out of 82-million Germans, I would take a humble guess that less than 400,000 would be seen once a year at a nude-beach. People accept the behavior but it's a national trend.
If you went up to a German pub and brought up flirting, you'd get a hundred different explanations of how Germans flirt. The old guys would give you a pretty conservative view.....the young guys would give you a fairly liberal view. Most German women over the age of thirty will list out at least twenty male behavioral trends which make a date possibility 'zero'.
The added problem here is that you have a pretty fair number of the incoming migrants and immigrants who came out of ultra-conservative nations. Just standing in the middle of a German swimming pool and noting the women in bathing suits.....that gets them all hyped-up and thinking it's almost a bordello-operation.
This Swedish guy....Perez? Well, he's probably correct and doing something that has value. But getting this information out in front of a bunch of young men, and insisting that behavioral modification is necessary? That's going to be a rough one.
Linke Party Story
I sat and watched a German public TV (ARD) news piece last night on the Linke Party. There's been a meeting going on for the last couple of days with the VIP folks of the Linke Party.
The key thing you can take out of the meeting is that Bernd Riexinger and Katja Kipping, who were very near the top....wanted to carve-off some functions of Sahra Wagenknecht (the 'number one' of the party).
Meetings were held privately and it's obvious that Wagenknecht had make some pretty harsh commentaries and convince people not to screw with the leadership function.
I sat watching the video (avoiding listening to the audio).....there's some serious negative body language by Wagenknecht, Kipping and Riexinger. They are very unhappy with the results of the meeting....continue on with no changes.
If you ask me....at some point before the next election....Wagenknecht is going to be dumped by the party. My humble guess is that she will retaliate and go out to create her own political party (a Macron-like device).
If you went back twelve months ago, there was a hyped-up sense that the SPD would win, and the Greens and Linke Party would be the partners of the new coalition. These people in the inner circle of the leadership of the Linke Party probably had these aspirations of stepping up and having more activities, and that simply didn't occur.
The key thing you can take out of the meeting is that Bernd Riexinger and Katja Kipping, who were very near the top....wanted to carve-off some functions of Sahra Wagenknecht (the 'number one' of the party).
Meetings were held privately and it's obvious that Wagenknecht had make some pretty harsh commentaries and convince people not to screw with the leadership function.
I sat watching the video (avoiding listening to the audio).....there's some serious negative body language by Wagenknecht, Kipping and Riexinger. They are very unhappy with the results of the meeting....continue on with no changes.
If you ask me....at some point before the next election....Wagenknecht is going to be dumped by the party. My humble guess is that she will retaliate and go out to create her own political party (a Macron-like device).
If you went back twelve months ago, there was a hyped-up sense that the SPD would win, and the Greens and Linke Party would be the partners of the new coalition. These people in the inner circle of the leadership of the Linke Party probably had these aspirations of stepping up and having more activities, and that simply didn't occur.
Laws Changing in Germany
Today....a couple of new German traffic laws get changed, and it's a bit more costly on fines.
For example...if you get into a stau (taffic jam) on the autobahn, and fire department or cops come up from the rear....German law dictates that you move over and provide a 'onward-route' for the emergency crew. The old fine was 20 Euro. Now? 320 Euro and a one-month loss of your license.
Getting noticed by the cops while driving and using a cellphone in your hand? That's now a 200 Euro fine and a one-month loss in driving.
Driving with your face covered? Like a mask or burqa? That will become a fine at this point. Note, you can wear the various masks that motorcyclists wear during the winter, while on your bike.
For example...if you get into a stau (taffic jam) on the autobahn, and fire department or cops come up from the rear....German law dictates that you move over and provide a 'onward-route' for the emergency crew. The old fine was 20 Euro. Now? 320 Euro and a one-month loss of your license.
Getting noticed by the cops while driving and using a cellphone in your hand? That's now a 200 Euro fine and a one-month loss in driving.
Driving with your face covered? Like a mask or burqa? That will become a fine at this point. Note, you can wear the various masks that motorcyclists wear during the winter, while on your bike.
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
The Survey Story
Focus brought this up today from Bild article from a survey (INSA did the survey). If you remember last week, I brought up this comment by a CDU political figure (cabinet member) that it's time to have a national holiday for people of the Muslim religion in Germany.
The reaction by the general German public? Seventy percent say....'no'. Only roughly 8-percent were able to positively that it needs to be done.
Oddly, even from Green Party enthusiasts....only twenty-percent of their group supported the idea. What I thought was even more funny was that from the people identifying themselves as AfD members (against immigration)....they actually found 3.7-percent who would support the idea.
After the coalition business is settled and people get to a quiet stage within the Bundestag....I expect this topic to come up and be discussed for one single day. I expect the CSU and AfD membership to question the idea....with the Greens, SPD, FDP, Linke Party and CDU to support the idea.
The problem in discussing this....the Christian folks in Germany have six recognized national holidays in Germany. In fairness, if you drag this topic out...you'd have to offer six to the Muslims as well. Then if you get deeper into this....what if the Scientology crowd want a day, or perhaps the Satanists?
As for the seventy percent saying 'no'? It's just not that big of a shocker. Most see the past two thousand years of Germany as being Christian in nature. It's not going to be easy to convince the public to buy into this.
The reaction by the general German public? Seventy percent say....'no'. Only roughly 8-percent were able to positively that it needs to be done.
Oddly, even from Green Party enthusiasts....only twenty-percent of their group supported the idea. What I thought was even more funny was that from the people identifying themselves as AfD members (against immigration)....they actually found 3.7-percent who would support the idea.
After the coalition business is settled and people get to a quiet stage within the Bundestag....I expect this topic to come up and be discussed for one single day. I expect the CSU and AfD membership to question the idea....with the Greens, SPD, FDP, Linke Party and CDU to support the idea.
The problem in discussing this....the Christian folks in Germany have six recognized national holidays in Germany. In fairness, if you drag this topic out...you'd have to offer six to the Muslims as well. Then if you get deeper into this....what if the Scientology crowd want a day, or perhaps the Satanists?
As for the seventy percent saying 'no'? It's just not that big of a shocker. Most see the past two thousand years of Germany as being Christian in nature. It's not going to be easy to convince the public to buy into this.
What Really Occurred in the Austria Election?
The Austrian People's Party (OVP)....has been around for seventy-odd years. In this election from Sunday, it is a remarkable win for the party. Why the popularity?
This is a party which attracts a lot of white-collar/middle-management type workers. Businessmen....from ultra small operations to major corporations like the view of the party on taxation and minimum regulations. Farmers? The party has always attracted them. Then you look over a government employees....where the party has never suggested downsizing or making a huge impact upon them.
Then you add this layer of commentary over immigrates and migrants. The OVP has continually voiced criticism over the way that the EU is managing this master redistribution of refugees in Greece and Italy....to the rest of the EU.
Just over one out of every three voters in Austria voted for this party. It is a clear message in some ways.
Then you add the character of Sebastian Kurz who heads the party and is now Chancellor of Austria. He's 31 years old. Yes, just 31. He's smart....he delivers four-star speeches, and he impresses younger audiences with his commentary and wit. He finished up his year of military obligation back in 2004, and opted out of law school at some point to pursue politics.
So for the next couple of years, Kurz and the OVP have a chance to lead Austria, and likely confront the EU. It might be worth watching Austria and the dramatic era ahead.
This is a party which attracts a lot of white-collar/middle-management type workers. Businessmen....from ultra small operations to major corporations like the view of the party on taxation and minimum regulations. Farmers? The party has always attracted them. Then you look over a government employees....where the party has never suggested downsizing or making a huge impact upon them.
Then you add this layer of commentary over immigrates and migrants. The OVP has continually voiced criticism over the way that the EU is managing this master redistribution of refugees in Greece and Italy....to the rest of the EU.
Just over one out of every three voters in Austria voted for this party. It is a clear message in some ways.
Then you add the character of Sebastian Kurz who heads the party and is now Chancellor of Austria. He's 31 years old. Yes, just 31. He's smart....he delivers four-star speeches, and he impresses younger audiences with his commentary and wit. He finished up his year of military obligation back in 2004, and opted out of law school at some point to pursue politics.
So for the next couple of years, Kurz and the OVP have a chance to lead Austria, and likely confront the EU. It might be worth watching Austria and the dramatic era ahead.
Monday, October 16, 2017
Tatort Episode and the Baader Meinhof Gang
German public TV....ARD...ran it's Sunday night cop show on schedule last night. The best description for the weekly series of 'Tatort' is a 90-minute fictional murder script, which is rotated around with a dozen different cities of Germany, and a dozen cop-teams. It's been on the air since 1970, with roughly thirty to thirty-five episodes produced per year.
For the first twenty years, if you went back and watched the episodes today....it was fairly marginal scripts, three-star acting, and geared mostly to the over-forty crowd. In the past ten years, they've gone into some hefty script writing, four-star acting, and occasionally pulled out some pretty dramatic stories. I should note....there's always a murder, and there is always a conclusion with the murder suspect figured out.
Last night....they went to a different formula. They had the Stuttgart team, a murder, and then injected a whole historical landscape into the situation from the 1970s Baader-Meinhof gang (the Red Army Faction). If you watched the entire piece....there's approximately 12 minutes of video from the 1970s which is injected into the storyline.
So, you come to the script. While a vast amount of historical data was used....then the writers turned to suggest some pieces of the story told by the German government in 1970s.....might not have occurred like the German government claims.
We turn to October 1977 moment. Four key members of the Baader Meinhof gang are captured and sit in a German prison with charges looming. A Lufthansa aircraft is taken and hostages are being held to swap for the gang members. The German government ends up rescuing and halting the terror act. As new sweeps back to Germany....the four in the prison all commit suicide.
It is one of those odd scenes. Baader will be found dead in the prison cell with a gunshot wound in the back of his head. How he got the weapon into the prison? Never fully explained. Ensslin? She was found just down the hallway in this same area of the prison.....hanged, dead. Raspe? He will be found with a serious gunshot wound in his cell, and will be dead by the next day. The gun in his cell? Never explained. Irmgard Möller? She has serious stab wounds in her side, but oddly enough survives. No one can explain where the knife came from. She'll spend the next seventeen years in prison and then be released.
A lot of the Tatort murder episode circled around the existence of these four and their demise. So near the end of the story, they put this alternate piece of history.....suggesting that the German authorities themselves caused the three deaths and the serious wound to Moller. Moller has suggested through the years that no suicide pact existed between the four, and this was all conspired by the German government....an authorized execution to prevent more aircraft hijacking, and to send a message.
You then come to the end of the Tatort with a conclusion and the solving of the original murder in the show.
In a way, this was a hyped-up slanted view of the Baader Meinhof period, and suggesting that maybe all the facts aren't really true. A conspiracy? Well, that's the suggestion.
There are three problems with this. First, if you did pull out all the facts from three dead folks in the prison....there's around six different problems with the medical exam, the weapons appearing out of thin air, and the method of death. The lack of gunpower on Raspe's hand? Yeah, that does stand out.
The second problem is that forty years have passed. Most people who remember all of this clearly are fifty or older. These particular have a memory over the period, and the threat of the Red Army Faction. They aren't likely to buy into this suggested alternate history. Folks under thirty? It might have been mentioned once in high school, but this is the crowd who really don't care....nor were they likely to have watched Tatort (it's just not a show that the younger generation would care about).
The third and final problem? You are taking a fictional series, injecting history, and then going to the extent of suggesting that things might not have happened like you think. Al this does is confuse people.
Me?
In the 1960s, Germany was emerging into a difficult period, with a generational difference problem. There was a segment of society in the 16 to 25 year old range.....who saw the political parties as stagnant....disapproved on the relationship with the US/NATO....and perceived a bold new world approaching. In some ways, the Baader Meinhof gang was simply a revolutionary war front, and attempting to drag the government into some confrontation.
The cops? German cops simply weren't prepared for this type of revolutionary war. The justice system, the courts, the laws themselves....weren't made for this type of confrontation. Trying to use the legal system and prosecute people.....while their supporters were prepared to kidnap more people or hold aircraft passengers as hostages? The Germans simply weren't capable of waiting this out or hoping for a solution to arrive. I personally don't buy the story that two guns and a knife were smuggled into the cells. But I also don't buy that the Baader Meinhof gang did this on their own, and didn't have help from the East German Stassi (secret police). It is rather odd that the Red Army Faction basically retires shortly after the Wall comes down.
As for the Tatort episode? I've seen a few remarkable and great episodes...but this turned into a fairly confusing mess about half-way through the 90 minutes. And frankly, I don't have that much sympathy for the Baader Meinhof members.....no matter how you tell the story.
For the first twenty years, if you went back and watched the episodes today....it was fairly marginal scripts, three-star acting, and geared mostly to the over-forty crowd. In the past ten years, they've gone into some hefty script writing, four-star acting, and occasionally pulled out some pretty dramatic stories. I should note....there's always a murder, and there is always a conclusion with the murder suspect figured out.
Last night....they went to a different formula. They had the Stuttgart team, a murder, and then injected a whole historical landscape into the situation from the 1970s Baader-Meinhof gang (the Red Army Faction). If you watched the entire piece....there's approximately 12 minutes of video from the 1970s which is injected into the storyline.
So, you come to the script. While a vast amount of historical data was used....then the writers turned to suggest some pieces of the story told by the German government in 1970s.....might not have occurred like the German government claims.
We turn to October 1977 moment. Four key members of the Baader Meinhof gang are captured and sit in a German prison with charges looming. A Lufthansa aircraft is taken and hostages are being held to swap for the gang members. The German government ends up rescuing and halting the terror act. As new sweeps back to Germany....the four in the prison all commit suicide.
It is one of those odd scenes. Baader will be found dead in the prison cell with a gunshot wound in the back of his head. How he got the weapon into the prison? Never fully explained. Ensslin? She was found just down the hallway in this same area of the prison.....hanged, dead. Raspe? He will be found with a serious gunshot wound in his cell, and will be dead by the next day. The gun in his cell? Never explained. Irmgard Möller? She has serious stab wounds in her side, but oddly enough survives. No one can explain where the knife came from. She'll spend the next seventeen years in prison and then be released.
A lot of the Tatort murder episode circled around the existence of these four and their demise. So near the end of the story, they put this alternate piece of history.....suggesting that the German authorities themselves caused the three deaths and the serious wound to Moller. Moller has suggested through the years that no suicide pact existed between the four, and this was all conspired by the German government....an authorized execution to prevent more aircraft hijacking, and to send a message.
You then come to the end of the Tatort with a conclusion and the solving of the original murder in the show.
In a way, this was a hyped-up slanted view of the Baader Meinhof period, and suggesting that maybe all the facts aren't really true. A conspiracy? Well, that's the suggestion.
There are three problems with this. First, if you did pull out all the facts from three dead folks in the prison....there's around six different problems with the medical exam, the weapons appearing out of thin air, and the method of death. The lack of gunpower on Raspe's hand? Yeah, that does stand out.
The second problem is that forty years have passed. Most people who remember all of this clearly are fifty or older. These particular have a memory over the period, and the threat of the Red Army Faction. They aren't likely to buy into this suggested alternate history. Folks under thirty? It might have been mentioned once in high school, but this is the crowd who really don't care....nor were they likely to have watched Tatort (it's just not a show that the younger generation would care about).
The third and final problem? You are taking a fictional series, injecting history, and then going to the extent of suggesting that things might not have happened like you think. Al this does is confuse people.
Me?
In the 1960s, Germany was emerging into a difficult period, with a generational difference problem. There was a segment of society in the 16 to 25 year old range.....who saw the political parties as stagnant....disapproved on the relationship with the US/NATO....and perceived a bold new world approaching. In some ways, the Baader Meinhof gang was simply a revolutionary war front, and attempting to drag the government into some confrontation.
The cops? German cops simply weren't prepared for this type of revolutionary war. The justice system, the courts, the laws themselves....weren't made for this type of confrontation. Trying to use the legal system and prosecute people.....while their supporters were prepared to kidnap more people or hold aircraft passengers as hostages? The Germans simply weren't capable of waiting this out or hoping for a solution to arrive. I personally don't buy the story that two guns and a knife were smuggled into the cells. But I also don't buy that the Baader Meinhof gang did this on their own, and didn't have help from the East German Stassi (secret police). It is rather odd that the Red Army Faction basically retires shortly after the Wall comes down.
As for the Tatort episode? I've seen a few remarkable and great episodes...but this turned into a fairly confusing mess about half-way through the 90 minutes. And frankly, I don't have that much sympathy for the Baader Meinhof members.....no matter how you tell the story.
Austria Vote
The Austrian election ended last night, with a bit of a shocker for some folks.
Sebastian Kurz led his People's Party (OVP) to a 30.2-percent win in the election. Young guy, energeric, anti-migration theme, EU-skeptic.
The number two participation in the election? The Freedom Party (FPO).....which most people see this as the right-of-center party hooking up with the far-right folks at the Freedom Party (their win was 26.8-percent).
Sitting there as the third-place winner....the Social Democrats (26.3-percent)....the left-of-center group.
The Greens? Well, that's an interesting story as well....it was a severe drop in votes to the last election. Only 3.3-percent. What happened? Back in the late spring, there was a member of the Green Party who had national recognition....Peter Pilz. The party had a conference and Peter Pilz was not going to be the candidate to lead the party. Frustration came upon Pilz and he quit the party.
Days passed, and Peter Pilz formed his own party....even naming it the Peter Pilz Part (I know, it would typically go nowhere). But this is 2017 and Macron did this in France. The Pilz List (the Pilz Party) ended up with 4.1-percent of the vote (8 seats in the legisature) and basically stole the 4.1-percent from the Green Party.
What happens to the Austrian Green Party now? It'll sit there mostly....waiting for the next national election. In regional or city politics, they might still be able to carve out some wins unless the Pilz List folks show up. My guess is that in four years....the Green Party does something to convince Pilz to combine with them into one party.
As for Kurz and the OVP win? It's safe to say that the EU now has a guy facing them and prepared to poke them weekly. It's also safe to say that if you were a migrant or immigrant looking around at Europe....Austria is now probably off your favorites list.
Sebastian Kurz led his People's Party (OVP) to a 30.2-percent win in the election. Young guy, energeric, anti-migration theme, EU-skeptic.
The number two participation in the election? The Freedom Party (FPO).....which most people see this as the right-of-center party hooking up with the far-right folks at the Freedom Party (their win was 26.8-percent).
Sitting there as the third-place winner....the Social Democrats (26.3-percent)....the left-of-center group.
The Greens? Well, that's an interesting story as well....it was a severe drop in votes to the last election. Only 3.3-percent. What happened? Back in the late spring, there was a member of the Green Party who had national recognition....Peter Pilz. The party had a conference and Peter Pilz was not going to be the candidate to lead the party. Frustration came upon Pilz and he quit the party.
Days passed, and Peter Pilz formed his own party....even naming it the Peter Pilz Part (I know, it would typically go nowhere). But this is 2017 and Macron did this in France. The Pilz List (the Pilz Party) ended up with 4.1-percent of the vote (8 seats in the legisature) and basically stole the 4.1-percent from the Green Party.
What happens to the Austrian Green Party now? It'll sit there mostly....waiting for the next national election. In regional or city politics, they might still be able to carve out some wins unless the Pilz List folks show up. My guess is that in four years....the Green Party does something to convince Pilz to combine with them into one party.
As for Kurz and the OVP win? It's safe to say that the EU now has a guy facing them and prepared to poke them weekly. It's also safe to say that if you were a migrant or immigrant looking around at Europe....Austria is now probably off your favorites list.
Sunday, October 15, 2017
Berlin Homeless Issue
RBB (the regional public TV network from Berlin) came up with a fairly detailed story over the homeless situation now in Berlin.
On the west part of Berlin, if you've ever been there....restz the Tiergarten suburb. A big part of this area is a city park (roughly 3,000 by 8,000 feet).
From the entire city of Berlin now, it's figured that 10,000 homeless folks now reside....mostly in tents. A fair portion of this group has set it's foundation upon the city park in the Tiergarten, with locals now getting fussy that this can't continue like this. Crime and drug issues are apparent.
A fair number of the locals now believe that the majority of the campers are east European....people who came with no real reason or purpose and resorting to crime or drug-use.
The politicians? Well....it's a difficult problem to solve because no one wants to chase the group off. Even if they chased them off....where exactly would they go? Just another city park? Some even point out that some intentionally have no passports on them and there's way to really 'send-them-back'.
There's a Berlin political meeting in November where this will be the number topic and some answers will be thrown out to the political folks. My guess is that most will vote to go toward some request situation where a cop just asks them to move on, and see if that works. Then they move go and offer them money to leave the city (I know....that's the usual German method to use bakshish to solve all problems.
My humble suggestion? Go out about forty kilometers away to some open field and put up a campground. Have a crew of special cops detailed out to round up campers inside Berlin every night and deposit them to the new campground. If they return to the city? Pick them up and return again....over and over, and over.
On the west part of Berlin, if you've ever been there....restz the Tiergarten suburb. A big part of this area is a city park (roughly 3,000 by 8,000 feet).
From the entire city of Berlin now, it's figured that 10,000 homeless folks now reside....mostly in tents. A fair portion of this group has set it's foundation upon the city park in the Tiergarten, with locals now getting fussy that this can't continue like this. Crime and drug issues are apparent.
A fair number of the locals now believe that the majority of the campers are east European....people who came with no real reason or purpose and resorting to crime or drug-use.
The politicians? Well....it's a difficult problem to solve because no one wants to chase the group off. Even if they chased them off....where exactly would they go? Just another city park? Some even point out that some intentionally have no passports on them and there's way to really 'send-them-back'.
There's a Berlin political meeting in November where this will be the number topic and some answers will be thrown out to the political folks. My guess is that most will vote to go toward some request situation where a cop just asks them to move on, and see if that works. Then they move go and offer them money to leave the city (I know....that's the usual German method to use bakshish to solve all problems.
My humble suggestion? Go out about forty kilometers away to some open field and put up a campground. Have a crew of special cops detailed out to round up campers inside Berlin every night and deposit them to the new campground. If they return to the city? Pick them up and return again....over and over, and over.
Lower Saxony Election Results
Results are in:
SPD: 37.5-percent
CDU: 35-percent
Greens: 8.5 percent
FDP: 7-percent
AfD: 5.5-percent
Linke Party: 4.8-percent (will not be going into the state parliament unless they find some extra votes and cross the 5-percent point).
What's this mean?
1. All that hype with the Green Party gal quitting and joining the CDU? It didn't really matter. It's safe to say that the CDU really screwed up on this quickly called election.
2. The SPD pulled out every single stop to get this win.
3. To form a coalition? Two choices: SPD and CDU, or SPD/Greens/FDP. Odds of the FDP refusing? Pretty high. The Greens? You would need a percent or more changing with absentee ballots being counted for the the SPD and Greens to have enough to form a coalition.
SPD: 37.5-percent
CDU: 35-percent
Greens: 8.5 percent
FDP: 7-percent
AfD: 5.5-percent
Linke Party: 4.8-percent (will not be going into the state parliament unless they find some extra votes and cross the 5-percent point).
What's this mean?
1. All that hype with the Green Party gal quitting and joining the CDU? It didn't really matter. It's safe to say that the CDU really screwed up on this quickly called election.
2. The SPD pulled out every single stop to get this win.
3. To form a coalition? Two choices: SPD and CDU, or SPD/Greens/FDP. Odds of the FDP refusing? Pretty high. The Greens? You would need a percent or more changing with absentee ballots being counted for the the SPD and Greens to have enough to form a coalition.
Harvey and German News
For roughly ten days....German public TV news (ARD and ZDF) avoided mentioning the Harvey Weinstein story from Hollywood. I know....one of the top three stories from the US, and it simply was skipped over each night.
Last night at 8 pm....Saturday evening....the ARD crew finally put the story up and in 90 seconds told the entire basic story, with graphics and video from the US.
Avoiding it? There are various stories which pop up in the US news in an average year, with some appearing within twenty-four hours, and some taking weeks to appear.
The story with Hillary's bathroom email server? Most print-media German units told the story within five days after it started to appear around the US. The ARD and ZDF crowd (public TV) ? It was around six weeks later when they spent about two minutes one evening telling the story in an encapsulated form (roughly 60 seconds of video and 60 seconds of political analysis by the DC German guy trying stake out the 'no-big-deal' stance of the episode.
It might have occurred to 100,000 Germans to ask if their Bundestag political folks also kept bathroom servers in their house like this.....but no one was dare going to let this question be asked.
Last night at 8 pm....Saturday evening....the ARD crew finally put the story up and in 90 seconds told the entire basic story, with graphics and video from the US.
Avoiding it? There are various stories which pop up in the US news in an average year, with some appearing within twenty-four hours, and some taking weeks to appear.
The story with Hillary's bathroom email server? Most print-media German units told the story within five days after it started to appear around the US. The ARD and ZDF crowd (public TV) ? It was around six weeks later when they spent about two minutes one evening telling the story in an encapsulated form (roughly 60 seconds of video and 60 seconds of political analysis by the DC German guy trying stake out the 'no-big-deal' stance of the episode.
It might have occurred to 100,000 Germans to ask if their Bundestag political folks also kept bathroom servers in their house like this.....but no one was dare going to let this question be asked.
State Election Today in Germany
State election today in Lower Saxony (state in north Germany). It was forced into a earlier date because of one Green Party member leaving her party.
Three months ago? The CDU was predicted to carry five to eight point lead over the SPD. Today, it's been cut down in size.
Forecasts say that the SPD likely wins now by one or two points. Course, the AfD figures into this. They will carry around 9-percent of the vote (same story with the FDP and Greens). Roughly thirty-five percent of the vote will go to someone other than the CDU or SPD candidates.
Merkel's victory? Doesn't really affect this region like people thought it would. What's odd here...is that four weeks ago....the CDU carried a 7-point lead out of the national election from Lower Saxony, and yet now.....loses nine points in four weeks?
Three months ago? The CDU was predicted to carry five to eight point lead over the SPD. Today, it's been cut down in size.
Forecasts say that the SPD likely wins now by one or two points. Course, the AfD figures into this. They will carry around 9-percent of the vote (same story with the FDP and Greens). Roughly thirty-five percent of the vote will go to someone other than the CDU or SPD candidates.
Merkel's victory? Doesn't really affect this region like people thought it would. What's odd here...is that four weeks ago....the CDU carried a 7-point lead out of the national election from Lower Saxony, and yet now.....loses nine points in four weeks?
Roads and Taxes
Stade is a town just west of Hamburg, in the far north of Germany. Population? Around 45,000....more or less. It's been conquered a couple of times...by the Danes, the Swedes, and eventually by the Prussians. It came up in the news this week.
There is a main 'drag' that leads into the town from the north. Schölischer Straße (street) is the name. Folks around town had complained about the condition of the road, and it needed a rebuild. It's roughly a two to three mile run with the street.
Folks would say that thousands of folks make their way from north of Stade, through the urban area....heading east toward Hamburg.
So, after the renovation work was done....the bill came to the folks along this street. You see, this wasn't split out among the entire town itself. Most folks got a bill of 5,000 to 10,000 Euro, which got folks a bit disturbed. The more property that you owned....the more hefty was the bill. Because the city limits extends out on this street....along farm-land....those folks got a bigger bill (over 100,000 Euro).
In the beginning....no one explained to the town's folks that this was a 9.5 million Euro renovation job. Most would have asked what the heck was going on, and that the lofty renovation adventure was way beyond what they would agree upon. But these meetings came and went without anyone really challenging the mayor or city council.
From the Focus article, one old German guy (96 years old) has a bill for 100,000 Euro. He'll basically end up having to sell his property to pay the bill. Whether this adventure was designed to force home/property sales might be a curious thing to ask.
I looked over a BILD story that connects to the town. They say between six and seven thousand vehicles transit this road daily. It'd seem like you'd just put up a toll-booth and charge 30 cents each time they passed and make the money up in five or six years. But the mayor and council probably don't want a toll-situation.
Another individual mentioned in the 100,000 Euro range was the local hotel owner.
What happens now? I'm guessing everyone is hyped up to have an election and vote the 'bums' out. But fixing this? You'd have to force the town into some bank loan and then force everyone in the town to participate in this episode. Then you'd have people attending every single meeting for the next twenty years and asking questions over the budget....why construction costs are so high....and forcing the city council to lightly spend.
If this were the US...you'd call up the state and ask for an audit over the expenditures of the city, and if there were some corruption factor in the 9.5 million Euro contract.
There is a main 'drag' that leads into the town from the north. Schölischer Straße (street) is the name. Folks around town had complained about the condition of the road, and it needed a rebuild. It's roughly a two to three mile run with the street.
Folks would say that thousands of folks make their way from north of Stade, through the urban area....heading east toward Hamburg.
So, after the renovation work was done....the bill came to the folks along this street. You see, this wasn't split out among the entire town itself. Most folks got a bill of 5,000 to 10,000 Euro, which got folks a bit disturbed. The more property that you owned....the more hefty was the bill. Because the city limits extends out on this street....along farm-land....those folks got a bigger bill (over 100,000 Euro).
In the beginning....no one explained to the town's folks that this was a 9.5 million Euro renovation job. Most would have asked what the heck was going on, and that the lofty renovation adventure was way beyond what they would agree upon. But these meetings came and went without anyone really challenging the mayor or city council.
From the Focus article, one old German guy (96 years old) has a bill for 100,000 Euro. He'll basically end up having to sell his property to pay the bill. Whether this adventure was designed to force home/property sales might be a curious thing to ask.
I looked over a BILD story that connects to the town. They say between six and seven thousand vehicles transit this road daily. It'd seem like you'd just put up a toll-booth and charge 30 cents each time they passed and make the money up in five or six years. But the mayor and council probably don't want a toll-situation.
Another individual mentioned in the 100,000 Euro range was the local hotel owner.
What happens now? I'm guessing everyone is hyped up to have an election and vote the 'bums' out. But fixing this? You'd have to force the town into some bank loan and then force everyone in the town to participate in this episode. Then you'd have people attending every single meeting for the next twenty years and asking questions over the budget....why construction costs are so high....and forcing the city council to lightly spend.
If this were the US...you'd call up the state and ask for an audit over the expenditures of the city, and if there were some corruption factor in the 9.5 million Euro contract.
Saturday, October 14, 2017
The Car Fire Story
About a week ago....we had a unusual fire in Wiesbaden....seven cars were set ablaze on a car lot....near the Mainzer Strasse area....with four additional cars in some stage of damage.
For those who've been around the city in the past....this is about a quarter-mile from the old entrance to the Hainerberg BX area.
Cops got onto this....using video from the region.
So today, they brought some guy in and interrogated him. Twenty-three year old guy. Damage done? In the 200k Euro range. He's admitted to the act.
The young guy? Well....it's an asylum seeker from Afghanistan. Cops hint that they've dealt with him before....saying little else.
Why burn the cars? Just disgruntled, I guess....no one suggests a logical reason for this. Prison? There will be a mental exam done likely with the guy, and then some legal proceedings. In this range of damage, I'm guessing he could get two to four years in prison.
For those who've been around the city in the past....this is about a quarter-mile from the old entrance to the Hainerberg BX area.
Cops got onto this....using video from the region.
So today, they brought some guy in and interrogated him. Twenty-three year old guy. Damage done? In the 200k Euro range. He's admitted to the act.
The young guy? Well....it's an asylum seeker from Afghanistan. Cops hint that they've dealt with him before....saying little else.
Why burn the cars? Just disgruntled, I guess....no one suggests a logical reason for this. Prison? There will be a mental exam done likely with the guy, and then some legal proceedings. In this range of damage, I'm guessing he could get two to four years in prison.
The Holiday Story
This came up yesterday with the German Minister of the Interior....de Maiziere...having proposed the idea of a national holiday in Germany for the Muslim religion.
Yeah, it did bring a fair amount of criticism from his own party (the CDU).
Oddly, from the SPD....Schulz commented that it was worth a serious discussion in the Bundestag.
From the current holiday scheme....how many relate to Christians? Karlfreitag and Ostermontag revolve around Easter (the Friday and the Monday). Cristi Himmelfahrt and Whit Monday also fall into this holiday schedule. Christmas and Boxing Day would be the last two. So a total of six holidays related to the Christian religion.
The 'other' holidays? Three additional days....New Year's Day, May-Day, and Unity Day.
Just adding one more day? Companies will fuss that is a problem and want some day to be exchanged.
If you did pick a day....there's only three days of the Muslim faith that might work.
First you have Eid Al-Fitr. This occurs at the end of Ramadan. This usually involves a fest day, with gifts given and people giving to charity.
The second option is Eid Al-Adha. This is actually a four-day period, with families meeting and sharing in an extra long dinner/feast.
The third option is the Islamic New Year....which rotates year after year. In 2018, it's 11 September.
The other dozen-odd related holidays? They might drag different groups into the middle from the Islamic religion who'd argue about direction given from such-and-such Mullah.
My own humble opinion....of the three....only Eid Al-Fitr might fit...although this is going to bring up a long discussion about the lack of eating/re-hydration by Muslim employees for this four-week period.
If you were swapping out a Christian holiday? It'll be impossible to touch Christmas or Boxing Day....as well as Karlfreitag and Ostermontag. So only two options remain....dumping Cristi Himmelfahrt or Whit Monday.
Taking this as a topic into the Bundestag I can imagine that Merkel is just going to sit there and shake her head because it's going to be a lightning rod for public conversation. Just adding another holiday on top, and not removing one? It's a cost factor to companies and stores.
Then you have the Muslim asking....why the Christians get five holidays and they only get one? You can sense how the German is standing there and was willing to cough up one single holiday and now you might be talking about two or three? Which do you cough up then? How do you explain this across to the voting public?
This also brings up another issue....are there other religions on the fringe which you might see going into court and challenging the judges to allow their religion to have a special off-day as well? Well....yeah, that might get brought up.
Scientology wanting 13 March off for L. Ron Hubbard's birthday next?
As for the general public? You can expect every single German to pick this up and have a definite opinion. Working-class people? It's simply begging to turn this whole discussion into a bigger mess.
Fake religions being invented to just take on this topic? Yeah, I suspect it'll happen pretty quickly. It's a curious topic, with no real solution to make people happy.
Yeah, it did bring a fair amount of criticism from his own party (the CDU).
Oddly, from the SPD....Schulz commented that it was worth a serious discussion in the Bundestag.
From the current holiday scheme....how many relate to Christians? Karlfreitag and Ostermontag revolve around Easter (the Friday and the Monday). Cristi Himmelfahrt and Whit Monday also fall into this holiday schedule. Christmas and Boxing Day would be the last two. So a total of six holidays related to the Christian religion.
The 'other' holidays? Three additional days....New Year's Day, May-Day, and Unity Day.
Just adding one more day? Companies will fuss that is a problem and want some day to be exchanged.
If you did pick a day....there's only three days of the Muslim faith that might work.
First you have Eid Al-Fitr. This occurs at the end of Ramadan. This usually involves a fest day, with gifts given and people giving to charity.
The second option is Eid Al-Adha. This is actually a four-day period, with families meeting and sharing in an extra long dinner/feast.
The third option is the Islamic New Year....which rotates year after year. In 2018, it's 11 September.
The other dozen-odd related holidays? They might drag different groups into the middle from the Islamic religion who'd argue about direction given from such-and-such Mullah.
My own humble opinion....of the three....only Eid Al-Fitr might fit...although this is going to bring up a long discussion about the lack of eating/re-hydration by Muslim employees for this four-week period.
If you were swapping out a Christian holiday? It'll be impossible to touch Christmas or Boxing Day....as well as Karlfreitag and Ostermontag. So only two options remain....dumping Cristi Himmelfahrt or Whit Monday.
Taking this as a topic into the Bundestag I can imagine that Merkel is just going to sit there and shake her head because it's going to be a lightning rod for public conversation. Just adding another holiday on top, and not removing one? It's a cost factor to companies and stores.
Then you have the Muslim asking....why the Christians get five holidays and they only get one? You can sense how the German is standing there and was willing to cough up one single holiday and now you might be talking about two or three? Which do you cough up then? How do you explain this across to the voting public?
This also brings up another issue....are there other religions on the fringe which you might see going into court and challenging the judges to allow their religion to have a special off-day as well? Well....yeah, that might get brought up.
Scientology wanting 13 March off for L. Ron Hubbard's birthday next?
As for the general public? You can expect every single German to pick this up and have a definite opinion. Working-class people? It's simply begging to turn this whole discussion into a bigger mess.
Fake religions being invented to just take on this topic? Yeah, I suspect it'll happen pretty quickly. It's a curious topic, with no real solution to make people happy.
German Soccer Kneelers
It was reported this afternoon in Germany that the Hertha Berlin soccer club did a kneeling in it's Bundesliga same, with the coaching staff, and general manager also in on the kneeling. The comment from the club? "Hertha BSC stands for tolerance and responsibility! For a tolerant Berlin and an open-minded world, now and forevermore!"
The opposing club? Schalke. No one from their squad kneeled.
Where this will go? Hard to say. Maybe ten-percent of the viewers in the stands might agree with some kneeling....most have no opinion....with maybe ten-percent having an issue with this.
The problem I see is that in the US....this is an agenda item that says more to the idea of the nation being racist. So would the same racism thing exist in Germany? If so, would the fans support this? Unknown.
The opposing club? Schalke. No one from their squad kneeled.
Where this will go? Hard to say. Maybe ten-percent of the viewers in the stands might agree with some kneeling....most have no opinion....with maybe ten-percent having an issue with this.
The problem I see is that in the US....this is an agenda item that says more to the idea of the nation being racist. So would the same racism thing exist in Germany? If so, would the fans support this? Unknown.
German Pacifistic Nature
This is one of my essays when I drill down into a topic that Americans tend to notice and can't really grasp or understand. To be honest, there's around five ingredients to the German tradition that exists now....over being pacifists.
First, once you got into the 1960s....between birth-control, women appreciating careers, and the taxation upon the general public....the birth-rate is pretty well set to 1.5 kids per family. So parents over the past couple of decades in Germany have grown this attitude that standing up for something that might involve a war, and the loss of their one and only child....well, it's not acceptable.
You have to put yourself into this situation. It's hard to find families that go beyond two kids. If faced with some stupid conflict in a faraway land....you'd rather not go off and volunteer to solve this conflict or get involved in a messy situation. Avoidance then makes sense.
Second, intellectual growth and control of the news media means that you get generally one formatted message and if the intellectual crowd wants to go pacifist in nature....well...it's a pretty easy sales-job.
Lets face facts, it's hard to find any intellectual who wants to take an aggressive walk-into-a-conflict type scenario.
Third, WW I and WW II have some lasting impact upon society's motivations. If you go and look at the top twenty urban areas of Germany in 1940....each had to go through a major rebuild in the era of 1945 to 1965. People have memories of the destruction and the suffering of Germans.
Fourth, a great deal of the public tone since 1945 has come from the two major church units of Germany (the Catholics and Protestants). Both have sought pacifist path's ahead. You can go and review the Christmas message and New Year's message for each year...the theme is to avoid confrontation as much as possible.
Fifth, global views accelerated over the past two decades in Germany. You can ask a group of a hundred Germans in the age group of twenty-five, and most will now identify themselves as European as much as they are German. This is a group that widely travels....thinks of multiculturalism as a positive trend....and talks of a big world which they are part of.
Trying to get this youth group entangled into any circumstance where chaos might be involved....simply violates their trust of a mutual world.
So this pacifistic nature has anchored itself down into German culture. Why rock the boat? Why challenge things? Surely talking will reach some conclusion, which leads onto another chaotic moment and more talking, with more chaos, and more talking. All of this seems better than some physical action that would mess up their pacifistic nature.
Challenging any of this? Why? In some dramatic way....years out into the future....some event will occur and force some type of rethinking upon this logical sense of the world. Let them follow that path and rediscover the real world.
First, once you got into the 1960s....between birth-control, women appreciating careers, and the taxation upon the general public....the birth-rate is pretty well set to 1.5 kids per family. So parents over the past couple of decades in Germany have grown this attitude that standing up for something that might involve a war, and the loss of their one and only child....well, it's not acceptable.
You have to put yourself into this situation. It's hard to find families that go beyond two kids. If faced with some stupid conflict in a faraway land....you'd rather not go off and volunteer to solve this conflict or get involved in a messy situation. Avoidance then makes sense.
Second, intellectual growth and control of the news media means that you get generally one formatted message and if the intellectual crowd wants to go pacifist in nature....well...it's a pretty easy sales-job.
Lets face facts, it's hard to find any intellectual who wants to take an aggressive walk-into-a-conflict type scenario.
Third, WW I and WW II have some lasting impact upon society's motivations. If you go and look at the top twenty urban areas of Germany in 1940....each had to go through a major rebuild in the era of 1945 to 1965. People have memories of the destruction and the suffering of Germans.
Fourth, a great deal of the public tone since 1945 has come from the two major church units of Germany (the Catholics and Protestants). Both have sought pacifist path's ahead. You can go and review the Christmas message and New Year's message for each year...the theme is to avoid confrontation as much as possible.
Fifth, global views accelerated over the past two decades in Germany. You can ask a group of a hundred Germans in the age group of twenty-five, and most will now identify themselves as European as much as they are German. This is a group that widely travels....thinks of multiculturalism as a positive trend....and talks of a big world which they are part of.
Trying to get this youth group entangled into any circumstance where chaos might be involved....simply violates their trust of a mutual world.
So this pacifistic nature has anchored itself down into German culture. Why rock the boat? Why challenge things? Surely talking will reach some conclusion, which leads onto another chaotic moment and more talking, with more chaos, and more talking. All of this seems better than some physical action that would mess up their pacifistic nature.
Challenging any of this? Why? In some dramatic way....years out into the future....some event will occur and force some type of rethinking upon this logical sense of the world. Let them follow that path and rediscover the real world.
The Blue Party?
This week, more bits over the new political party forming in Germany under the former boss of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party. Frauke Petry has said that the new party will be called the Blue Party.
The hints here are that it'll duplicate what the CSU stands for in Bavaria (alone) and play to the CSU message across the rest of the fifteen German states.
Problems for the future of the party? Well....Petry is under some investigation for legal issues and she might be forced out of politics for a while. Whether the Blue Party can make it without her....is a big unknown.
As for the idea of taking CSU-minded ideas and using a party like this for the other fifteen German states? They might be able to carve out some identity. Let's face it....conservative voters who'd typically be pro-CDU....aren't that happy over the immigration business but they were very disgruntled with the AfD message and the people behind the party. I'm not suggesting the Blue Party will do any better but there is a frustration vote sitting there and wanting some vehicle to throw their votes.
The hints here are that it'll duplicate what the CSU stands for in Bavaria (alone) and play to the CSU message across the rest of the fifteen German states.
Problems for the future of the party? Well....Petry is under some investigation for legal issues and she might be forced out of politics for a while. Whether the Blue Party can make it without her....is a big unknown.
As for the idea of taking CSU-minded ideas and using a party like this for the other fifteen German states? They might be able to carve out some identity. Let's face it....conservative voters who'd typically be pro-CDU....aren't that happy over the immigration business but they were very disgruntled with the AfD message and the people behind the party. I'm not suggesting the Blue Party will do any better but there is a frustration vote sitting there and wanting some vehicle to throw their votes.
The Education Story
This topic came up yesterday in various news sites from around Germany....I note the better piece from ARD's network news.
Germans often test school kids to determine if things are going well, or not.....so the recent tests for fourth-grade students really didn't turn out well. There is an obvious negative trend for German language and math. This naturally.....begged questions.
This trend? Well, they note that it's been going on for at least five years. So it generally started before the refugee episode started up (2013).
Nationally, they even note that the kids up around Bremen are worse than any other region.
In the midst of this report, the experts note that roughly 34-percent of the Bremen 4th graders in this examination....were from migration situations.
The hype out of this? More teachers. But this would also trigger the debate on separate teaching situations for the migrant or immigrant students....away from the German kids.
Back in 2014/2015, no one really spoke to this problem but you could see it approaching. The German school system simply wasn't developed or maintained in such a way to handle several tens of thousands of kids with varying aspects of past education.
If we were talking purely over Syrian or Iraqi kids....you'd have one part of the puzzle. But you have kids showing up from Russia, Macedonia, Greece, Italy, Serbia, and Africa. You could be standing in a school with four-hundred kids, and six different languages being part of the background of the students.
Bringing on more teachers? If you knew that this immigration thing was going to be a regular experience, it'd make sense. If you knew that the 2015 period was the peak and you'd never return to that level....then you'd build the increase of teachers or tutors in a different way.
The impact problem here is that you really need some massive fix to start within the next six to eight months, to prevent a major issue for these kids becoming marginal students with no real job or potential by age sixteen. If you wanted a ghetto-like attitude among these kids....just stall this out and watch what happens in five brief years.
My suggestion? I'd go at three major shifts. First, I'd go and route immigrants who had a teaching background in the old country into a quick 12-week program to Germanize their style and approach, and then give them some type of certificate....bringing them into these areas that need their skill and language. Second, with the math skill business....I'd go and recruit Germans who have a math background or degree, and convince their bosses or business operations to give the guy a 12-month sabbatical and use him/her for math-tutor activities. Third, I would probably review the idea of a one-year intensive German language introduction period and force the kids to attend after-hours school programs (add three hours a day onto their backs). Maybe even add a half-day on Saturdays with reading assignments.
The problem here....is if you do nothing, you trigger a bigger mess in just a couple of years.
Germans often test school kids to determine if things are going well, or not.....so the recent tests for fourth-grade students really didn't turn out well. There is an obvious negative trend for German language and math. This naturally.....begged questions.
This trend? Well, they note that it's been going on for at least five years. So it generally started before the refugee episode started up (2013).
Nationally, they even note that the kids up around Bremen are worse than any other region.
In the midst of this report, the experts note that roughly 34-percent of the Bremen 4th graders in this examination....were from migration situations.
The hype out of this? More teachers. But this would also trigger the debate on separate teaching situations for the migrant or immigrant students....away from the German kids.
Back in 2014/2015, no one really spoke to this problem but you could see it approaching. The German school system simply wasn't developed or maintained in such a way to handle several tens of thousands of kids with varying aspects of past education.
If we were talking purely over Syrian or Iraqi kids....you'd have one part of the puzzle. But you have kids showing up from Russia, Macedonia, Greece, Italy, Serbia, and Africa. You could be standing in a school with four-hundred kids, and six different languages being part of the background of the students.
Bringing on more teachers? If you knew that this immigration thing was going to be a regular experience, it'd make sense. If you knew that the 2015 period was the peak and you'd never return to that level....then you'd build the increase of teachers or tutors in a different way.
The impact problem here is that you really need some massive fix to start within the next six to eight months, to prevent a major issue for these kids becoming marginal students with no real job or potential by age sixteen. If you wanted a ghetto-like attitude among these kids....just stall this out and watch what happens in five brief years.
My suggestion? I'd go at three major shifts. First, I'd go and route immigrants who had a teaching background in the old country into a quick 12-week program to Germanize their style and approach, and then give them some type of certificate....bringing them into these areas that need their skill and language. Second, with the math skill business....I'd go and recruit Germans who have a math background or degree, and convince their bosses or business operations to give the guy a 12-month sabbatical and use him/her for math-tutor activities. Third, I would probably review the idea of a one-year intensive German language introduction period and force the kids to attend after-hours school programs (add three hours a day onto their backs). Maybe even add a half-day on Saturdays with reading assignments.
The problem here....is if you do nothing, you trigger a bigger mess in just a couple of years.
Friday, October 13, 2017
Air Berlin Final Deal
The score now with Air Berlin? As most of you know....it's been in bankruptcy for a couple of months, and been in decline for at least five years. A lot of hype was made up around 2007 and how they were in the right position to benefit from BER (the new Berlin Airport)....so they were expanding and taking on new positions. Sadly, they guessed wrong on BER, and screwed up on finances.
Lufthansa will now buy Air Berlin for 210 milliion Euro. The number one airline of Germany....buys the number two airline....which says a lot.
Lufthansa says that 1,300 employees will be Lufthansa employees in the end. The rest filter out to Niki Airlines or get dismissed.
The chance of Eurowings being run out of Frankfurt now? Zero chance. That was the low-cost end of Lufthansa and they say it won't be in the plans ahead.
So this brings up this odd topic of Alitalia (Air Italy). It's been in bankruptcy-like care for more than a decade. The Italian government has never been able to find anyone willing to buy the airline because there's this agreement that must come with the deal....not to dismiss any employees. In 2017, the government finally said enough....just sell the airline period, and get rid of the cost to the government. What's generally said is that they have too many employees with no real job and it's more or less welfare-class employment going on. Several companies talked of a deal....wanted to dismiss some employees (never numbers mentioned) and it got nowhere.
Now with Lufthansa? Yeah, that's the odd thing....maybe they'd buy Alitalia.
My guess is that Lufthansa is angling toward some deal where if future strikes were to occur with the Lufthansa pilots....they'd have extra pilots in their pocket or other airlines to cover various routes. The effect of a strike might not be so big.
What will be the landscape in 2018? It'll be a curious deal how this looks at ticket prices and options. BER? It'll open by the end of 2018 or beginning of 2019, and it'll be a big part of the success for Lufthansa in the future.
Lufthansa will now buy Air Berlin for 210 milliion Euro. The number one airline of Germany....buys the number two airline....which says a lot.
Lufthansa says that 1,300 employees will be Lufthansa employees in the end. The rest filter out to Niki Airlines or get dismissed.
The chance of Eurowings being run out of Frankfurt now? Zero chance. That was the low-cost end of Lufthansa and they say it won't be in the plans ahead.
So this brings up this odd topic of Alitalia (Air Italy). It's been in bankruptcy-like care for more than a decade. The Italian government has never been able to find anyone willing to buy the airline because there's this agreement that must come with the deal....not to dismiss any employees. In 2017, the government finally said enough....just sell the airline period, and get rid of the cost to the government. What's generally said is that they have too many employees with no real job and it's more or less welfare-class employment going on. Several companies talked of a deal....wanted to dismiss some employees (never numbers mentioned) and it got nowhere.
Now with Lufthansa? Yeah, that's the odd thing....maybe they'd buy Alitalia.
My guess is that Lufthansa is angling toward some deal where if future strikes were to occur with the Lufthansa pilots....they'd have extra pilots in their pocket or other airlines to cover various routes. The effect of a strike might not be so big.
What will be the landscape in 2018? It'll be a curious deal how this looks at ticket prices and options. BER? It'll open by the end of 2018 or beginning of 2019, and it'll be a big part of the success for Lufthansa in the future.
Truth-Commission Results
After the Christmas market terror attack in December of 2016, the Berlin authorities decided to do a truth-commission episode over the assassin....Amri (Tunisian guy). It concluded yesterday.....68 pages in the final report.
There are three things to take home from this.
1. The head local Senator from Berlin for the Berlin says in pretty strong language that virtually every single possible mistake that the cops could have made.....they ACTUALLY did make. Mistake after mistake. It was like the behavior you'd expect from some third-world Banana-Republic police department. He criticizes not only the Berlin cops, but that of Baden-Wurttemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia.
On the drug trafficking and fake ID business? That was enough to land the guy in jail, and it should have been an easy task to remove the guy from the country, or put him into long-term detention.
2. Manipulation of the files over Anis Amri? After the Christmas attack...it's more than obvious that digital files were altered. You would think that the altering of the police files would be a serious thing and people punished. The truth-commission more or less says that nothing related to punishing the people who were altering the data....will occur. No reason behind that talk....just a blunt statement.
3. Finally, the truth-commission kinda hinted at the end that things at the federal level aren't working. Sixteen German states are basically running their own police enforcement routine, and at the federal level...it's more or less a public relations gimmick.....little else.
From my perception, after you look over Anis Amri and his whole entire story....this is a young guy who arrived after screwing up with opportunities in Tunisia, and Italy....no real plan in life.....to resettle in Germany and screw-up another vast chance opportunity. You could look at the whole story and imagine at least a thousand other characters like Anis Amri existing in Germany, and the police-system being overwhelmed to the degree (with the judges and prosecutors).....that it's a green-light all the way through dozens of intersections. It doesn't make sense.
There are three things to take home from this.
1. The head local Senator from Berlin for the Berlin says in pretty strong language that virtually every single possible mistake that the cops could have made.....they ACTUALLY did make. Mistake after mistake. It was like the behavior you'd expect from some third-world Banana-Republic police department. He criticizes not only the Berlin cops, but that of Baden-Wurttemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia.
On the drug trafficking and fake ID business? That was enough to land the guy in jail, and it should have been an easy task to remove the guy from the country, or put him into long-term detention.
2. Manipulation of the files over Anis Amri? After the Christmas attack...it's more than obvious that digital files were altered. You would think that the altering of the police files would be a serious thing and people punished. The truth-commission more or less says that nothing related to punishing the people who were altering the data....will occur. No reason behind that talk....just a blunt statement.
3. Finally, the truth-commission kinda hinted at the end that things at the federal level aren't working. Sixteen German states are basically running their own police enforcement routine, and at the federal level...it's more or less a public relations gimmick.....little else.
From my perception, after you look over Anis Amri and his whole entire story....this is a young guy who arrived after screwing up with opportunities in Tunisia, and Italy....no real plan in life.....to resettle in Germany and screw-up another vast chance opportunity. You could look at the whole story and imagine at least a thousand other characters like Anis Amri existing in Germany, and the police-system being overwhelmed to the degree (with the judges and prosecutors).....that it's a green-light all the way through dozens of intersections. It doesn't make sense.
Thursday, October 12, 2017
"Babylon Berlin"
Over the next year, you will likely hear about this new German dramatic series....entitled: "Babylon Berlin".
It's designed as a 16 episode series....running 45 minutes each. It's an odd cooperative effort....a commercial studio (Beta Film), Sky TV (the distribution arm), and ARD (Public TV in Germany).
They are going to use Berlin in the 1920s era as the base point for a fictional story being laid out. Berlin of course, provides the vast and historic landscape.
The deal here provides Sky the chance to distribute and allow viewers to see it....via their data-streaming service. A year from the day that this starts on Sky.....ARD (public TV) would be given the series and run it for Germans. In some ways, Sky hopes that the series will draw more Germans to join their service. The cost involved (40 million) makes this a unique series, and everyone needs to make some profit off the series.
The story? Well....naturally....since it is ARD....it has to revolve around cops.
This is all set against the period of the Weimar Republic....the war has ended and things are in an organized chaotic mess.
A German cop is directed to report to Berlin, to investigate a blackmail case. The series revolves around this cop and his associate....meeting up with political intrigue, drugs (yes even in 1920), art, culture, weird characters, kinky lusty stuff, and radicals.
A big draw? There's differeing opinions. Historical fiction shows have been popular over the last couple of years in Germany. Youth audiences? No....not so much in popularity.
I think the key thing to take out of this is that it's the start of relationships between ARD and ZDF (pubic TV in Germany) with the data-streaming crowd. More cases like this will occur, if this proves successful.
It's designed as a 16 episode series....running 45 minutes each. It's an odd cooperative effort....a commercial studio (Beta Film), Sky TV (the distribution arm), and ARD (Public TV in Germany).
They are going to use Berlin in the 1920s era as the base point for a fictional story being laid out. Berlin of course, provides the vast and historic landscape.
The deal here provides Sky the chance to distribute and allow viewers to see it....via their data-streaming service. A year from the day that this starts on Sky.....ARD (public TV) would be given the series and run it for Germans. In some ways, Sky hopes that the series will draw more Germans to join their service. The cost involved (40 million) makes this a unique series, and everyone needs to make some profit off the series.
The story? Well....naturally....since it is ARD....it has to revolve around cops.
This is all set against the period of the Weimar Republic....the war has ended and things are in an organized chaotic mess.
A German cop is directed to report to Berlin, to investigate a blackmail case. The series revolves around this cop and his associate....meeting up with political intrigue, drugs (yes even in 1920), art, culture, weird characters, kinky lusty stuff, and radicals.
A big draw? There's differeing opinions. Historical fiction shows have been popular over the last couple of years in Germany. Youth audiences? No....not so much in popularity.
I think the key thing to take out of this is that it's the start of relationships between ARD and ZDF (pubic TV in Germany) with the data-streaming crowd. More cases like this will occur, if this proves successful.
Coalition Update
Focus put up an interesting story over the coalition-building attempt by Chancellor Merkel with the FDP and Green Party folks.
Basically....it's going to be awful complicated and some people think it won't reach an agreeable stage until the Christmas period (likely meaning mid-December). Normally (using the past five elections)....this coalition-building stage would take four to six weeks.
The list of sticking points? Taxation, immigration, rent-control, the electrical grid, renewable energy, diesel cars, electric cars, banking, and the list goes on and on.
You've got various characters who believe they are precise solution to everyone ills and woes. Agendas are absolute. You can pick through several listings of the people near the top for each party and find individuals who just aren't willing to lessen their hyped-up talk over politics and the way ahead.
The potential for failure, and no coalition coming out of this? People are careful not to suggest that. The problem is that if you get to mid-December, and Merkel admits failure....you have to go and have another election. My guess is that it'd have to occur by early March....giving the parties roughly ten weeks to build and run another campaign. The CDU would have to go and explain the failure reason (mostly because of inability to get the Greens to the same stage).
I will say this....by AfD participating in this election and getting twelve-percent....they set the stage for this coalition-situation being a major problem.
Basically....it's going to be awful complicated and some people think it won't reach an agreeable stage until the Christmas period (likely meaning mid-December). Normally (using the past five elections)....this coalition-building stage would take four to six weeks.
The list of sticking points? Taxation, immigration, rent-control, the electrical grid, renewable energy, diesel cars, electric cars, banking, and the list goes on and on.
You've got various characters who believe they are precise solution to everyone ills and woes. Agendas are absolute. You can pick through several listings of the people near the top for each party and find individuals who just aren't willing to lessen their hyped-up talk over politics and the way ahead.
The potential for failure, and no coalition coming out of this? People are careful not to suggest that. The problem is that if you get to mid-December, and Merkel admits failure....you have to go and have another election. My guess is that it'd have to occur by early March....giving the parties roughly ten weeks to build and run another campaign. The CDU would have to go and explain the failure reason (mostly because of inability to get the Greens to the same stage).
I will say this....by AfD participating in this election and getting twelve-percent....they set the stage for this coalition-situation being a major problem.
The Brain Drain Story
“There is a brain drain. If young, healthy men leave their homeland, they weaken its economy. The brain drain, which is sometimes a muscle drain, may condemn such countries to permanent backwardness, because they lose an important part of their workforce – perhaps even millions of people – which is also my argument against illegal and economic migration.”
-- Czech President Milos Zeman
It was an address to the EU and discussing the EU strategy ahead on migration and asylum. It was a blunt message, which even the intellectual crowd has to pause over and admit that he is correct.
After the 2008 economic situation....Greece fell apart in rapid fashion with unemployment a major problem for educated crowd and skilled craftsmen. Greeks who had something to offer....ended up packing up and moving north....in a great extent, to Germany.
You see the same brain drain occurring today with Iraqis and Syrians....moving into Germany. You see the same issue beginning to start up with Turks migrating into Germany.
What happens in twenty-five years? No one really sits there and speculates on the condition of the countries losing workers. You would think some university or foundation would pick up this topic....but there's virtually no interest to explore where this is going.
If you were looking around Syria for people to be teachers in the next 20 years? There's a problem brewing, because I think most of the qualified young people who would have been in such a profession....have left. The same can be said for Iraq.
As part of the intellectual argument? Intellectuals don't typically stand around and admire how nations exist because of certain amount of collected wit, inventiveness, and talent. Why is Silicon Valley that significant today? They found ways to attract smart people into the region. If you've rigged the system so that you create the inverse (the opposite) of Silicon Valley....in Iraq and Syria....or dozens of other third-world countries....what is the result in twenty-five years?
It's worth a moment or two to ponder this direction of society.
The Fake Application Story
There's a brief piece written up in the Danish news (Jyllands-Posten) that appeared in the last couple of days, that concerns migration and immigration.
So there's this category of immigrant that Denmark would typically allow into the country....under the note of religious or minority prosecution. You'd fill out the immigration or asylum forms....select the right block....then mention your minority or ethnic or religious status. Then the Danish guy would ask some questions in the process.
So this large 'chunk' of people.....came up into Denmark from Kuwait.
The authorities didn't really have total belief in the applications, so they picked up about 700 of these applications and did more analysis. In the end....they agreed that sixty-six were actual ethnic minorities from Kuwait. The rest? No....they were Iraqis.
Fake applicants? Yes.
In fact, what the news people say is that roughly half of the fake folks....were from one clan.
What the Danes are stumbling onto is the vast amount of fraud that is being conducted in this asylum business now. Folks are hyped up to leave Syria, Iraq, or what ever country they reside in, and are willing to openly lie about it to get the better status.
The general public? It's not just in Denmark anymore.....you can find people asking questions and not really believing that the governments can do an adequate job in handling this activity. I won't say it's anywhere near fifty-percent or more....but it's enough that journalists are realizing the impact on politics.
As for the crowd with the fraudulent applications? No one says much. They might allow them a second chance to apply....under their real names, real reasons, etc. They might even approve them with the second chance. But this all puts more pressure on the approval process.
So there's this category of immigrant that Denmark would typically allow into the country....under the note of religious or minority prosecution. You'd fill out the immigration or asylum forms....select the right block....then mention your minority or ethnic or religious status. Then the Danish guy would ask some questions in the process.
So this large 'chunk' of people.....came up into Denmark from Kuwait.
The authorities didn't really have total belief in the applications, so they picked up about 700 of these applications and did more analysis. In the end....they agreed that sixty-six were actual ethnic minorities from Kuwait. The rest? No....they were Iraqis.
Fake applicants? Yes.
In fact, what the news people say is that roughly half of the fake folks....were from one clan.
What the Danes are stumbling onto is the vast amount of fraud that is being conducted in this asylum business now. Folks are hyped up to leave Syria, Iraq, or what ever country they reside in, and are willing to openly lie about it to get the better status.
The general public? It's not just in Denmark anymore.....you can find people asking questions and not really believing that the governments can do an adequate job in handling this activity. I won't say it's anywhere near fifty-percent or more....but it's enough that journalists are realizing the impact on politics.
As for the crowd with the fraudulent applications? No one says much. They might allow them a second chance to apply....under their real names, real reasons, etc. They might even approve them with the second chance. But this all puts more pressure on the approval process.
Goetheturm Fire
The locals originally built it in the late 1860s. The original wood tower lasted for around sixty years, and then became a safety hazard. So they tore it down.
In the early 1930s....some hyped up sense came up in Frankfurt and a local Jewish businessman put up the capital to build tower II.
Even with all the bombing of WW II...this tower stood. Through the 1950s and on up to yesterday.....it was a favorite of the city residents. You'd take a box-lunch....some wine, and walk out to the area, and climb the tower to get a four-star view of the city.
Last night....it burned to the ground. Arson? Well....yeah, and that begs this question.
Back in May/June of this year....two OTHER wooden structures in Frankfurt were set on fire. The Korean Pavilion in the Grüneburgpark and the Chinese Pavilion in Bethmannpark.
Cops say it's odd....three major wooden structures in the city burned down within a space of six months. But no suspects. It does appear....all three were set. But looking for some connection between the three? Other than being massive wood pieces....nothing else.
Odds of the Goethe Tower being rebuilt? My guess is that some folks will suggest the idea but maybe put it behind some security fencing
Blue Party Talk
It's one of those little mysteries still left over from the German election....AfD's former chief....Frauke Petry.
Over the last six months of the campaign, AfD kinda pushed her aside...yet she ran for a particular district, and won. She'll be sitting in the new Bundestag. The day after the election....she resigned from AfD. She has no intention of giving up the seat.
So today through several new news sites in Germany....it's becoming apparent that Petry will create her own party (kinda like Macron).
Name of the party? The Blue Party.
Some speculation says that this idea was brewed up months ago.
The slant or platform of the Blue Party? There's only one single line known at present. "Free and conserative".
Odds of people drifting out of the AfD to the Blue Party? On my own part, I think that at least twenty members (standing within the Bundestag) will drift out to the Blue Party. How this all ends up in four years? Big unknown.
Over the last six months of the campaign, AfD kinda pushed her aside...yet she ran for a particular district, and won. She'll be sitting in the new Bundestag. The day after the election....she resigned from AfD. She has no intention of giving up the seat.
So today through several new news sites in Germany....it's becoming apparent that Petry will create her own party (kinda like Macron).
Name of the party? The Blue Party.
Some speculation says that this idea was brewed up months ago.
The slant or platform of the Blue Party? There's only one single line known at present. "Free and conserative".
Odds of people drifting out of the AfD to the Blue Party? On my own part, I think that at least twenty members (standing within the Bundestag) will drift out to the Blue Party. How this all ends up in four years? Big unknown.
The 'Fine Dust' Story
Public TV ARD in Germany....put up an interesting report on the 'fine dust' issue from diesel vehicles today.
From the European Environment Agency (under the EU)....a report was issued that throughout Europe....roughly 400,000 people are affected and will die prematurely. From Germany? 66,000.
The agency will note that through some measures of the past couple of years....air quality is slightly improving. But then they kinda broaden the landscape and said it was not only diesel vehicles....it also involved heating systems, factory pollution, electrical production (coal), and plain old regular agriculture.
I think what you can take home over this is that whatever fuss is being raised presently against the car companies, and the diesel business....that's just the first wave. You will see tougher measures coming for coal usage in power production.....home heating systems being examined....and even farmers being dragged out into the discussion.
From the European Environment Agency (under the EU)....a report was issued that throughout Europe....roughly 400,000 people are affected and will die prematurely. From Germany? 66,000.
The agency will note that through some measures of the past couple of years....air quality is slightly improving. But then they kinda broaden the landscape and said it was not only diesel vehicles....it also involved heating systems, factory pollution, electrical production (coal), and plain old regular agriculture.
I think what you can take home over this is that whatever fuss is being raised presently against the car companies, and the diesel business....that's just the first wave. You will see tougher measures coming for coal usage in power production.....home heating systems being examined....and even farmers being dragged out into the discussion.
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Road Repairs
The Public TV Story
Focus had an interesting piece for today about German public TV (ARD/ZDF).
The government requires a annual review by German public TV, and one of the things that the two networks had to go and admit was that more Germans are now putting their off-time into the internet.....and there is this suggestion that more Germans (particularly from the 15-to-25 age group)....are using streaming video instead of regular TV.
I've often essayed pieces about this and how it's frustrating the public TV crowd. They aren't reaching this younger group, and there's people than ever who'd like to see the TV-media tax halted.
According to the numbers....from the German population of 82-million....roughly 62-million are on-line for some portion of the day. That comes out to roughly 90-percent of the population.
Women more than men? By one hour per day more.
They even demonstrated that from the 14-to-29 year old group....their average per day was around 4.5 hours.
Where does this lead German public TV? Well....they've invested a fair amount of money into this concept network....designed strictly for the younger crowd....ONLY available via the internet. It's been roughly six month now and no one much talks about the numbers or how much data-streaming is going on. I sat on a couple of occasions and viewed the contents. Oddly, they are focused on public debate forums which were hyped up for the college-age kids....whether they were watching this type of format or not....is an unknown.
Since the 1950s....ARD, and later on in the 1960s....ZDF....both were prime-movers in public attitudes, perceptions, and motivation. TV shows were designed in some ways....with themes....to highlight something that the TV crowd wanted you to think about. Chat forums were arranged with conversation going to various themes that the political parties or agenda folks wanted you hyped in a dramatic fashion. Now? This presents a problem.
Affected by fake news? The public networks will tell you this point-blank. They worry about this. They think that people aren't capable of grasping things, and only by watching the totally neutral and intellectual networks of Germany....will you be capable of handling reality or democracy.
I know.....one can laugh over this way of thinking but that's how we got to this point.
If you ask me...somewhere in about a decade....some folks are going to demand a massive cut, and ZDF will end up disappearing off into the sunset to help the system survive.
I brought this topic up with my wife....the topic 'fare' that you see on prime-time now from ZDF/ARD from Friday, Saturday and Sunday....from 8:15 to 11:30 each night. Thirty-percent of the time...it'll be a murder movie of some type, or some lame 2-star romance movie that only people over the age of forty-five can appreciate. At least one marginal game-show for older-generation Germans will be on for two hours (you always notice in their audience that most everyone is over the age of fifty) is featured. And for Sunday evening will be some public forum chat show with VIPs trying to hype you on something political.
About six times a year....the two networks go out and feature some massive high-cost historical movie....typically from the 1800s or WW II, and they will go on for weeks talking about their epic production.
From older Germans, if you bring this up....they all believe in ARD and ZDF....insisting that they have some purpose. Then you start to get into the crowd under the age of forty, and their beliefs just aren't as strong, and folks under twenty-five? You won't find that many people thrilled over the media-tax.
The government requires a annual review by German public TV, and one of the things that the two networks had to go and admit was that more Germans are now putting their off-time into the internet.....and there is this suggestion that more Germans (particularly from the 15-to-25 age group)....are using streaming video instead of regular TV.
I've often essayed pieces about this and how it's frustrating the public TV crowd. They aren't reaching this younger group, and there's people than ever who'd like to see the TV-media tax halted.
According to the numbers....from the German population of 82-million....roughly 62-million are on-line for some portion of the day. That comes out to roughly 90-percent of the population.
Women more than men? By one hour per day more.
They even demonstrated that from the 14-to-29 year old group....their average per day was around 4.5 hours.
Where does this lead German public TV? Well....they've invested a fair amount of money into this concept network....designed strictly for the younger crowd....ONLY available via the internet. It's been roughly six month now and no one much talks about the numbers or how much data-streaming is going on. I sat on a couple of occasions and viewed the contents. Oddly, they are focused on public debate forums which were hyped up for the college-age kids....whether they were watching this type of format or not....is an unknown.
Since the 1950s....ARD, and later on in the 1960s....ZDF....both were prime-movers in public attitudes, perceptions, and motivation. TV shows were designed in some ways....with themes....to highlight something that the TV crowd wanted you to think about. Chat forums were arranged with conversation going to various themes that the political parties or agenda folks wanted you hyped in a dramatic fashion. Now? This presents a problem.
Affected by fake news? The public networks will tell you this point-blank. They worry about this. They think that people aren't capable of grasping things, and only by watching the totally neutral and intellectual networks of Germany....will you be capable of handling reality or democracy.
I know.....one can laugh over this way of thinking but that's how we got to this point.
If you ask me...somewhere in about a decade....some folks are going to demand a massive cut, and ZDF will end up disappearing off into the sunset to help the system survive.
I brought this topic up with my wife....the topic 'fare' that you see on prime-time now from ZDF/ARD from Friday, Saturday and Sunday....from 8:15 to 11:30 each night. Thirty-percent of the time...it'll be a murder movie of some type, or some lame 2-star romance movie that only people over the age of forty-five can appreciate. At least one marginal game-show for older-generation Germans will be on for two hours (you always notice in their audience that most everyone is over the age of fifty) is featured. And for Sunday evening will be some public forum chat show with VIPs trying to hype you on something political.
About six times a year....the two networks go out and feature some massive high-cost historical movie....typically from the 1800s or WW II, and they will go on for weeks talking about their epic production.
From older Germans, if you bring this up....they all believe in ARD and ZDF....insisting that they have some purpose. Then you start to get into the crowd under the age of forty, and their beliefs just aren't as strong, and folks under twenty-five? You won't find that many people thrilled over the media-tax.
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