Well....it's fairly low odds (probably in the five-percent range) that the CDU-CSU-Greens-FDP situation will fail. Most expect the talks to take all the way to mid-December. Should we reach the end of December and no coalition has occurred?
We have a brief situation which would arise and the CDU-CSU team would go to the SPD and suggest a coalition. My humble guess is that the SPD will agree....only if Merkel steps down and a SPD individual is allowed to be Chancellor.
Then? Another election....likely by early-to-mid March.
Merkel running again? It's hard to say if this would be a positive thing. With Merkel and Schulz out of the picture...it'd be a fairly different race.
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