It's an odd political survey and I'd question who came up with this topic and their driving purpose. Focus laid out the story (leading to a Swiss newspaper and a polling organization). It's a 12-line story at best.
So Germans were asked in this poll....if they felt if Armin Laschet (the CDU Chancellor candidate)....would or should be replaced in the campaign.
31-percent of Germans said yes (the older the generation....the agreeable to this idea they were).
It was only 29-percent who felt Laschet was the 'right' candidate.
The rest? Undecided.
A scenario to this? I studied the issue and how this might work. There is one single state election coming up....the 6th of June....the state of Saxony-Anhalt.
The general expectation by polls over the past month or two? The CDU ought to win that state election, but only by two points (getting around 26-percent of the votes). Second place? Oddly enough.....the AfD Party is polling near 24-percent. No one else is even close....the Linke and Green Parties are down at around 12-to-13 percent each.
Under my scenario....a frenzy would occur, and the CDU loses at least four points, and the AfD wins the state election with 27-percent. Suddenly, the entire prospective of the September national election is changed.
In this embarrassing situation....a meeting would occur with the CDU membership demanding a full-up meeting by the 3rd week of June, and they want a clear vote from themselves....NOT the Executive Committee.
What might happen? I could see Laschet dumped, but there might be six different people now running (going beyond Soder). A whole new prospective would arrive.
Odds of this? It's awful crazy.....but it's just odd that these Swiss newspaper folks ask for this type of poll.
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