ARD (public TV, Channel One) runs a monthly poll, which I generally give a positive mark on....from all of the polls conducted, they probably are the closest to the real numbers. So this poll was over the election, if it were tomorrow.
From this poll....the Greens would win with 26-percent of the vote. The CDU-CSU would be only at 23-percent.
Sitting at 3rd place.....the SPD (fairly weakened at 14-percent).
AfD and the FDP sit at 12 and 11-percent. The Linke Party lays at 6-percent. In the Linke discussion....they are worrying about that 5-percent rule (if you can't pull 5-percent or more.....you don't get seats in the Bundestag).
Coalition-building, if you were the Green Party? You'd be stuck with the CDU-CSU folks, or some deal with the SPD/FDP.
Trend likely continuing with the Greens adding a couple more points before September? I would suggest that. Plus the election in Saxony-Anhalt will matter a bit now (June).
If the Linke Party were to fall to below 5-percent? That's a pretty wild idea and hadn't really been suggested in the past. Where are their voters going? If you look at the numbers....it appears they walked over to the Green Party.
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