There are four presently planned:
1. 27 March: Saarland
2. 8 May: Schleswig-Holstein
3. 15 May: Nordrhein-Westphalia
4. Some time in the fall of 2022, undated at this point: Niedersachsen
Presently, if you asked....none of these are regarded as national trend situations. On the first two....it's strictly CDU versus SPD type races, with the Greens really not much of a player.
I noted this morning, watching a segment off N-TV news....there was an economist (not a virus-expert, government official, or party 'boss')....who was discussing the idea of paying Germans to vaccinate.
The amount? Nora Szech says 500 Euro ought to be the amount laid on the table. Roughly $600 American.
I sat and pondered over the amount. No one has done a study or poll to suggest that money would make a difference....nor can you say with any factual data....500 Euro is enough (some people might tell you that it has to be triple that amount to get them interested).
Could kids or teens get into this pay-off business? It'd be worth asking.
Will this go anywhere? No. I would suggest that the Finazamt will stand in a bold way and say there's no way they'd pay off regular people. They'd also bring up....what do you do when the booster gets to a mandated point....pay another 500 Euro? Or in 2022....a whole second booster....requiring another 500 Euro as well?
My wife's company came up two weeks ago and said they'd pay their employees around 200 Euro as a bonus, if you vaccinated. Course, we are talking about 15 employees in the business front of it....so it's not a big deal.
In Germany, for months....you had free Covid-19 testing going on. The government, in it's wisdom, decided that it would cover the 18-Euro per test per person. Some folks were testing two and three times a week. Personally, I used the service one single time over the past six months.
Well....N-TV picked up the topic today, and said that there is a secret report going around the government that the free tests will end....shortly after the federal election in late September.
On the topic of cost....they say that roughly 3.4-billion Euro was paid out to cover the free tests from April to July of this year.
The push here? If you have free vaccinations....you are protected and don't need tests to confirm anything.
All of this....to push the non-vax crowd into the corner? More or less.
The problem I see....even if you are vaccinated....you can still get Covid. So when you come up with symptoms (as a vaccinated guy)....you'd have to go to get tested (probably via your doctor or local clinic....not the quickie-test centers). Healthcare insurance will cover that (you could call it free, but it's not really free)..
What I'll predict here is a economic slowdown from October to December of enormous proportions, all leading to non-vax folks just refusing to spend their money at theaters, restaurants, etc....who demand either a paid test result or a digital vax deal.
The new government (after the election) walking into January through March....with serious tax revenue and business revenue missing? They will have to blame the non-vax crowd, and eventually re-invent the whole free testing business....to get tax/business revenue back to the norm.
You can laugh over the sequence here and the solutions mentality, but this is the new economic world that Germany wanders through.
As for my last thought? The reliability of these quickie-test centers being marginal? Well....this has been brought up in Hamburg.....tested, and it's a fairly serious problem over 'false-positives' that you get with the whole free-testing business. Anytime you attach 'free' to something....it usually ends up meaning crap to the participant.
Starting on 1st of August in Germany:
Once you return....they ask at the airport or border, if you can prove your vaccination (on paper or digitally), or if you've had it in the past (recovered, with a sheet from the PCR test to show anti-bodies). If you can....you proceed on and aren't hassled.
If you answer no....you take the Covid test there on the spot.
There is some talk that it'll only affect you if it's a high risk country....but some folks are suggesting it's not final yet.
The fact that you could arrive (having the vaccination two months ago) and have Covid? I suspect before we get to the end of August.....everyone will be tested, period.
Cost? It seems like it'll still be a free test deal. Whether it stays that way is anyone's guess.
This AM in Germany, the union chief for German police....came up said 'no, we won't be the test people for entry into Germany for Covid-19.' It was a pretty blunt statement and I don't think the union will back down.
Shocking, absolutely shocking.
So if they aren't the ones....who exactly will be manning all these railway and autobahn sites to test folks?
Well....it's not clear.
One would guess and say that they might deputize around 3,000 Bundeswehr soldiers but I doubt that this would even be half the number required. Telling the soldiers that this would be long-term duty? No....that probably won't work either.
So what I'd predict here....around 10k to 15k German unemployed folks will be offered a job to test folks. Figure 8 to 10 Euro an hour.....just to swab and test folks. Who would pay for this? Well....tax revenue, I would assume.
This turning into a job opportunity for Poles and Czechs? That wouldn't shock me much.
It's a breaking story which will probably get more traction over the weekend.
What's said....the CDU's Armin Laschet, candidate for Chancellor....wrote a book in 2009.
The title? "The Rising Republic. Immigration as a Chance."
Well...he plagiarized at least one piece of the writing (right now, it's only one segment).
Actions? He's hired up some plagiarism-hunter and wants to quickly resolve this mess.
This being a big deal? Well....yes and no.
For the Green's, Baerbock's plagiarism has been a big deal (more than 20 references though).
To be honest, if you'd asked most CDU folks.....most don't even remember the book, and probably will say they never read it. It might shock me if he sold more than 50k copies.
Who might benefit from this? The SPD. There's probably another point for them to gain next week in the polls from this episode.
We are about seven weeks away from the federal election in Germany.
The CDU's Laschet? About every two weeks that pass now....he falls around a point down. It's painfully obvious that he peaked out around a month ago. Presently, if you look over various polls....he's at 26 to 28 percent.
Scholz from the SPD? In the past week, he's climbed up to around 16 to 18 percent. On trends, I would suggest that he's picking up a point in the polls about every two weeks.
If you do the numbers and view the landscape, it's entirely possibly that Scholz might be up around 22 percent as the election occurs. He's likely to take some CDU voters, along with some Green voters.
Laschet? He would have to lose a good five points over the next two months....for Scholz to 'win'. The problem with this scenario....the SPD would be a very marginal winner, and building a coalition would be near to impossible (meaning three parties combining to make the coalition possible).
The odds of a five-point change for both Scholz and Laschet? Well....it's a lot of speculation and guessing involved. If Laschet did drop to around 22 percent....some CDU folks might suggest he ought to resign because it was a crappy end to this election for the party.
I will end this essay with this suggestion.....whatever results you get out of this 2021 election....it really lays out a weak four-year period for whatever coalition that comes.
The top leading story on Focus this morning is an odd one.
So over the past four months in the Saarland (the state to the extreme far west of Germany)....there's been a lot of 'drama' over the regional Green Party and its choices for party positions.
Locally, they had gone in a particular way and elected their candidates for the September election....hoping to get better traction this time around.
Focus lays out the story, and what you have is some type of effort by the national Green Party Chancellor candidate (Baerbock) to change the leadership of the Saarland Green Party.
Reasoning? National Green Party has a rule or two....that leadership posts need to have women at the top. Yes, they wrote enough rules that it's near impossible to one single leader of a regional party group....you either run a female by herself, or you have a joint male-female 'team'.
The regional Greens in the Saarland were forced to revise the 'drama' and now have a single female lead as the party 'boss' there in the region. The guy who was elected a couple of months? Dumped.
Hurting the party with the 'drama'? Regionally, I suspect if you gathered up Green voters....they will all have a laugh over how this was handled, and admit that the national leadership crapped all over the regional trends. It wouldn't surprise me if you counted Green votes in the September federal election, and the Saar contribution is no more than it was in 2017....with no real gains.
1. N-TV reported this morning that several German states are returning their unused vaccine cases because they are nearing expiration, and the trend is really slowing down on vaccinations.
2. The trend line for new infections in Germany? N-TV reported this AM that it's going up and they can identify the majority of new infections to vacations outside of the country.
This is what is driving the new testing rules as you fly, drive or take the train back into Germany....starting in the next couple of days.
3. If you use the Wiesbadenaktuell site, the current vaccination numbers are: first shot: 61.3 percent of Germans. Second shot: 50.9 percent.
On new infections in past 24 hours? 8,304. Death count in past 24 hours: 107.
The 7-day incidence rate, using Wiesbaden city as reference? Well....we bottomed out at 5.0 per 100k, on 6 July. As of yesterday, we'd risen to 23.3 per 100k. Odds of getting to 50 per 100k by mid-August? I'd say it's pretty good odds.
This afternoon, if you gazed across the various German news groups....you tended to find this near the top....the RKI (Robert Koch Institute, the PhD folks who advise the government on Covid) put out a confidential paper that is making its way through the Bundestag.
The contents? Well....the RKI folks are now talking about the next shutdown/lockdown for Covid.
The paper is referred to as a 'alarm paper'....shocking a fair number of politicians, and no one is really discussing the contents of the paper.....other than saying the paper does exist.
Right now, the only thing that the government is admitting....in or around the first of the month....full-scale testing will take place at airports and entry-points to Germany.
The assurance that herd immunity would change things? I suspect some politicians are grasping now....it might not matter if you got the immunization.
If Germany were to re-engage on another lockdown? It'd probably be taken in a frustrating way, with some Germans having marginal patience left.
If Christmas markets failed to materialize in early December or shopping was halted again around 17 December? It'd be a mistake to assume the public would readily accept the deal as easily as they did last year.
One odd number which lingers out there. It's been over ten days now since the flooding in the west of Germany.
What the authorities say from the state of the Pfalz....they still have 73 people 'missing'. 134 people (from the state) are noted as dead at this point.
Washed way on out down the stream and river, tens of miles? Probably.
Watching German business news today (via N-24 network).....inflation now rated at 3.8-percent....highest point since 2008 (big economic crisis year for Germans in general).
For remaining months of 2021? I'd expect it to be closer to 5-percent by end of the year.
Another story that popped up....used car prices are going up by a minimum of 10-percent in Germany....mostly over reduced production of new cars (chip problems still). If you had a two-year old high-end VW or Audi....it's probably around 20-percent above what the used-car price ought to be. No way to determine if this is a short-term or long-term deal. But even if you sold your nice slightly used car....then what? It might take VW or BMW six to twelve months to deliver anything new.
Two nights ago (Tuesday evening, 8:15 PM), ZDF (public TV in Germany, Channel Two) ran a 45-minute documentary piece on Ikea, the Swedish furniture 'giant'. You can view it over here (all in German).
So, they had 'insiders' who laid out the business model of Ikea. I'd give the whole piece a balanced view (both positive and negative). They did dwell on the negative wood issue a fair bit.
Throughout Germany, there's a good number of the stores. I probably walk into an Ikea at least twice a year. I dislike the furniture, but the picture department and kitchenware are outstanding.
The general comment I'll make on the store is that if you were young, without a lot of cash.....it's probably the best store to buy living room/bedroom furniture. However, in just about all scenarios.....you have to put the stuff together, and it's 50-50 whether your talents meet the situation required.
I'll comment on the restaurant operation....if you had just ten Euro in your pocket, and you wanted the XXL type lunch (with a soda and ice cream)....they do a fantastic job.
So I'll recommend the news documentary piece and just say that you get a honest view from the journalists on this occasion.
Back around six months ago, there was an exceptionally brutal murder to occur in Ravensburg (far SW, along the Swiss border), Germany.
N-TV had the update this morning.
What the cops would say is that this 62-year old woman was returning from work....walking home, and was assaulted in an extreme way (dying in the end). A knife in the neck.
Police viewed video of the area, and came to conclude there was a suspect, which they'd had run-in's with her before. Suspect? 15-year-old German girl.
What was taken? Some cash, the purse, and the cellphone....that was it.
Court came up yesterday. Max that they could hand out is ten years to a juvenile offender. Judge handed down a 9.5 year sentence to the teenage German girl....now 16 years old. Then he laid down the permanent placement card.
In Germany, if enough viciousness is noted in the crime, and indications exist of a long-term potential for committing more crime.....they can just say that when your official sentence is up....you don't leave. So in this case.....all of the past crimes of this girl was added up.
Rare occurrence here in Germany for the permanent placement situation? Yeah. Especially for a teen.
Looking over a Focus story this morning.....you can project the path for the next month and how the Covid rules will start up:
1. There is a 10 August meeting of sixteen Premier-Presidents of Germany (the head of each state) with some of the federal folks. There's going to be a fair amount of Covid chat, and they will stamp a joint deal. The federal folks, I believe, want a script where they make the rules and push them.....which I doubt that they will get.
2. You will submit yourself a couple of days after that meeting, upon entering Germany, to a PCR or quickie-test for Covid (even kids). Even if you spent three days in Zurich.....it won't matter.
3. If you went to a high-risk Covid area (even Amsterdam is on the list now), you will have to do a home-rest Covid quarantine for five days. This will shut down most people from travel because they don't have extra days for this type of extra leave.
4. It appears that it won't matter how you traveled (even by bike or horse).....if you came from a risk-area, you will have some type of digital receipt of your trip, with name and address.
My general view? All of this probably should have been put into effect in May as people started to travel. What they didn't talk about was canals or rivers.....entering Germany via that situation.
So I'd prepare for a massive amount of testing in ten days, and the upswing will occur on more Covid numbers.
1. There was a interview today with the RKI 'boss' (leading medical authority in Germany). He says the rate of infection is now such....that he could proclaim the 4th 'wave' now here and starting to cycle up.
Generally, this would bring up the question of how long the wave lasts (minimum of six to eight weeks), the estimated down-time (it'll only come when harsh shutdown measures occur), and the arrival of the 5th wave (probably in the Christmas period).
In simple terms....it's a harsh negative message, and will trigger a lot of heartburn around the Bundestag about having to focus people on shutdowns once again.
2. N-TV says today that 41.8 million Germans are now vaccinated fully.
3. Bavaria's Premier-President (Soder, CSU) says that he wants to start on 1 August with testing at the border (if you drive or arrive by rail). The federal folks are talking that if you arrive by air....testing will start by 1 August (no one doubts that estimate). The difference of opinion? If you start talking about the borders to nine countries and the people there to enforce the tests....I'd question if such a capability is ready to go (probably into the tens of thousands to make this work).
General impression? No doubt that air travel folks will arrive on 1 August and find the mandated program in place. Going full-scale with railway and roads? It'll probably be mid-August before they can have this program up and running.
If you lived an hour near the border of France, and drove over for four hours of wine-tasting? No one is clear if you fall into the must-test group yet.
The type of testing that they are talking about? Well....to the 'quickie-test' level. So even if you test positive....you'd have to go and take the PCR test to really confirm it and the fake-positive results are something of a 'legend' now with the 'quickie-tests'.
4. ARD TV news did a piece today talking over a study which noted depression increasing among German teens....saying around 477k teens are now affected (ages 16 to 19).
Their big numbers? Well....before Covid, they generally estimated that 10-percent of German teens had a depression problem. Now? Near 25-percent.
In their mind, the schools ought to be open, and they help provide a stress-reliever.
5. German state with highest accomplishment on the vaccinations (today)? Saarland with 67-percent (per 100 adults). State with lowest numbers? Sachsen, with 51.8-percent (per 100 adults).
Last night, ARD (public TV, Channel One) featured a hefty news item on drug use in Germany....the numbers are up.
The suggestion is that during the Covid period.....people have turned toward more use of illicit drugs.
The trend? Crystal meth is up, and weed continues along at the same levels.
Generally, on a scale of one to ten....I give the ARD/ZDF 'club' a '7' on their ability to deliver the news. There are some pluses, and some negatives. So to my observations:
1. It's live....no matter what time of the day you flip the TV on to watch ARD or ZDF news...it's all live. So there are probably ten to twenty screw-ups you see throughout the entire year. A coughing attack here.....a video problem there....it just happens.
2. If some big incident occurs after 9 PM? They might give it marginal mention on the 9:45 ARD late news. They won't follow the 'big' news item like CNN would. So you'd get up at 6 AM, and they'd be doing catch-up work, with the bulk of the story told probably after 12-noon on the following day.
3. If you were to line up the sixteen German states and ID the top story in each state....it does not mean that ARD or ZDF will cover those sixteen stories. At best, they might cover three or four of these. If you want local stories, you have to watch the local/regional public TV networks (BR, HR, RBB, etc).
4. The 8 PM ARD news show is only 15 minutes (of which one minute is for the weather, and a additional minute for the sports folks). So if there is a 'hot' story which they don't have the time to tell it.....they add an emergency 10-to-20 minute broadcast after 8:15 PM called 'Brennpunkt', and some special journalist tells the entire story from every prospective. These used to be rare, but I'd suggest since 2020....there's probably a minimum of four a month now.
5. ARD and ZDF journalists will claim that they have absolute independence. The board of governors over ARD? They can hold a meeting....call the chief of ARD into the room and yank on his chain....then 24 hours later, a new path is laid out to the journalists to walk upon. It's rare, but it does happen.
6. The bulk of Germans are not news-obsessive, so they might read a couple pages of BILD or the regional paper in the morning at work or riding the train, and catch the 8 PM nightly news. That's it.
7. Are ZDF news and ARD's news basically the same? Well....you can sit and watch the two. I would suggest that the top five stories of both will generally match up. After that, you might get a different assortment of news items for the evening. One might bring on an expert to give you better insight....one might use statistics more than the other.....one might be more pro-political in their telling of the story....one might build a story to be more easily consumed by 12-year-old kids.
8. Last year (2020), the average viewership for ARD nightly news was around 11.8-million (83-million residents of Germany). I should note....purely on news, movies, various shows....ZDF will generally lead by a point or two over ARD. If you asked people about 'favorite' network status....ZDF tends to be slightly ahead. I'd generally give the reason that better produced documentary shows (Terra X for example) pulls in more viewers.
9. It's entirely possible that some event or action is taking place in the US, and neither ARD or ZDF will tell this story for days, and sometimes even weeks. It will seem odd to the German viewer when he finally figures out that this story has been out there for six weeks, and never mentioned by either network.
10. Between both news networks (ARD/ZDF)....they have a wide assortment of personnel who are either absolute GQ (in the fashion trend) or anti-GQ (terrible selection of clothing, styles, and colors). With the arrival of the better televisions....this fact stands out a good bit.
The concert/promoter crowd of Germany have gone to a new format....to get shows up and approved from the various authorities.
So the idea is....get a large open area, with a temp-stage in front. The normal chairs? Gone. What they bring in are beach chairs (the type you'd see up in the North Sea area). A two-seater, with a head covering.
Yes, it does not really allow for full potential like before, but it lessens the infection rate threat.
The problem with this....people can stand up and walk over to the concession....in the middle of the music or comic routine.
So over this past weekend....at a comedy show with Helge Schneider.....he reached a point where he just said 'that's it'. He walked off the stage....the beach cabana situation doesn't work for him and his act.
The odds that others will suggest the same thing? I'd go and suggest maybe a third of bands, singers, and comedians will offer criticism over the beach chair deal.
The possibility in 2022 that we go back to normal.....stuffing 4,000 people into a 4,000 seat arena? It's probably less than a one-percent chance.
If you follow France, Germany and Italy....lot of chatter over the past month about virus vaccination 'passports', and how the non-vaccinated will not be allowed the same privilege's as the vaccinated crowd (access to theaters, bars, pubs, nightclubs, restaurants, museums, soccer stadiums, etc).
So, my general observation and thoughts.
The people hyped up to make this all happen....are mostly politicians, virus experts and 'Doctor Dooms' who live in a 'bubble'. They spend six to twelve hours a day.....talking about Covid, and it's a major part of their existence now.
The chatter from the fall where they said 'herd immunity' could be achieved at 65-percent? In an amusing way.....it's fallen into a pit, and mostly forgotten by the news media.
The chatter that the authorities would not make a 'punishment' list (discussed frequently around December and January? It's fallen into a pit of memory loss, and not openly discussed by the news media.
As we move forward, what will generally happen as the non-vaccination crowd is dumped upon? About four months into this....the tax-revenue expert to the Finance Ministers of each country....will rush in and say that around 700-million Euro is 'missing'.
Naturally, this will freak out the Finance Minister. He'll ask how is this possible.
The tax-revenue guy will state the fact.....the non-vax crowd didn't spend money, and in some funny way....went on a economic boycott.
A week later, business lobbyists will ask for a meeting....they are missing several billion for the quarter.
Yes, in the middle of a recession, the government idea of punishing the non-vax crowd.....basically dumped the country deeper into a recession.
For about three additional months, governments will discuss this problem and admit they've screwed up.
As for the Germans? I expect the federal authorities out of Berlin to push a 'punishment' list. I expect the sixteen states of Germany to be in two groups....three or four would be pro-punishment....the majority anti-punishment.
The federal folks will say they have the 'power'.....the state authorities will say 'no'....ONLY they would have such power, and they won't agree with this.
In the end, I see three states going to a 'punishment' deal for the non-vax crowd, and it halts after a couple of months because of tax revenue issues or the federal court getting into this.
So all of this....really going back to the herd-immunity chatter and that was all fake in 2020? Yeah....more or less. We can laugh about the talk, and remember probably forty prominent German politicians actually saying this in public statements, and at least a hundred journalists/news people uttering the phrase.
Finally, to end this essay....the one politician who has openly said that 'punishments' for non-vax people isn't smart or wise? Chancellor Merkel.
I sat and watched through a German flood update (from the Pfalz/NRW region). So they had this renovations expert that was brought to analyze and provide insight.
He gets to this one key point....if you had a house where the entire first floor was flooded out, then you cleared the whole floor of contents (everything went to the trash).....you had this one single issue remaining.
He said....on average....you needed one to two years for the first floor/basement....to dry out.
This was taking into consideration....a fan or two continually blowing air in and out of the house.
ONLY after it was completely dry....would he go and start floor, woodwork and wall renovation.
I sat there. You'd basically be asking some German family to hunker down in some RV or trailer for a two-year period....waiting.
Later in the evening, they went to some clinic operation that had been flooded out, and they were disposing of all of the equipment (probably half-a-million in assets in just one single exam room by itself), and they had the intent to have the clinic back up and operational in four months. At least they hinted that in their chatter.
There's going to be a lot of stress and frustration coming out of this flood period....going on for several years. Even for a stoic German, you are asking an awful lot of patience.
I sat and watched N-TV news this morning, and they discussed this rumor going around the Health Ministry of Germany. The boss of the Ministry....Spahn, from the CDU....says that it might be time to test all Germans returning from vacation....NO matter what country they visited.
The deal wouldn't just involve air travel....they also referred to train and car travel. In some way, before you leave Germany, you'd sign some of note to say you know there is a obligation to test.
Presently, the general rule is that if you enter Germany from a high-rate virus country, and fly in.....you are pushed into a test situation.
The fact that we are almost into August, and this idea probably should have been discussed back in early June? Well....yeah, there is that problem.
The weekly virus rate going back up? Yes.
So you could get on your bike....do a five day trip into Austria, and return to the German border...only to be forced into a Covid-test? Yep.
All of this begs questions. For example, if you just went over the Dutch border on a Friday....mostly to buy your Cannabis, stayed the night, and drove back on Saturday afternoon....would you be forced to test then? If you hiked down along the Swiss border on a Friday and Saturday....returning from a hiking trip....would that trigger a test on Sunday as you returned?
It is a bit comical, and I sat through twelve different news sites to grasp the whole picture.
For those who were not aware....Belarus is on the bad-boy list. Varying reasons for this, but the EU (with German support) made it clear.....there are consequences for all of their bad-boy activities.
So, there are counter consequences that have now occurred. Belarus figured out that there are various migrants and refugees who'd like to make their way to Germany. So they've opened up a 'path' and migrants are allowed to enter Belarus with the understanding.....you will just proceed on.
Upon leaving the border? Lithuania says (four weeks ago) that they've suddenly gotten a surge of migrants.
Why not Poland? I sat and looked at the map and read through various articles. The Poles have a fair amount of security at the border and would probably in most cases....stop them. You can't say that Lithuania has that capability.
The EU forced to haul cash/assets into Lithuania....to resolve this border issue? Probably.
But you might end up with 20,000 migrants already in Lithuania....all attempting to use ferry services or other methods....to make their way into Germany.
Presently, there are five different individuals (four parties) who have let their intent be advertised:
1. CDU: Merz
2. CSU: Soder (currently Premier-President of Bavaria)
3. SPD: Scholz (present Finance Minister)
4. Green Party: Habeck
5. FDP: Lindner
If the CDU Party does lead, Laschet has some obligation toward Merz, who'd I'd regard as the guy you'd really like in a recession-period.
Sadly....for Laschet, he has to build a coalition (with either the Greens or/and SPD), and that means that Scholz holds a great deal of power.
There is this 10-to-30 percent chance that the FDP might be invited, and Lindner has made a blunt statement over the weekend.....he will have to hold the Finance Minister seat if the party is invited.
Will this be a bigger mess than voting for Chancellor? At this point, four individuals will be seriously disappointed.
While I might rate Merz at the top, after that....the four probably all rank even with each other.
There is this scenario for the German September national election.....where the winner....might only get 25-percent of the national vote (the lowest of all time, since 1947).
How it'd work? You work with the current unfortunate trend with the CDU Party (where in the last election....they won with 33-percent of the vote), and right now they are sliding from 30-percent point of a few weeks ago, to the present number of 27-percent (as of the weekend).
Right now, I'd suggest that they might stumble another two points, and end up around 25-percent.
Second place? Right now....the Greens 'own' it with 18-percent, but they've been on a marginal slide as well.
Third place? The gainer in most polls? The SPD folks with around 16-percent, and I might predict they are going to be fairly close to 20-percent by election day.
The other slight gainer? The FDP. Weeks ago....they were at 11-percent, and recently polling up near 13-percent. I could see them gaining 1-to-2 points more....maybe up around 15-percent.
All of this puts the Merkel crew in a fairly weak position to form a new government. You'd have to build the CDU-CSU 'win' around the SPD or Greens, with that not being enough for the 50-percent of votes necessary.....so the fourth member would be required....in the FDP. Go figure the ministry positions, and it really becomes a mess.
If the FDP said it won't participate if you punish the non-vaccination crowd? Well....you'd be stuck then with the Greens replacing them as members of the coalition. Most of the ministry positions would be taking positions that the CDU voters wouldn't be thrill about.
Weak government in the end? More or less, if this scenario were to hold out and be the end result.
Over the weekend, there was a fair amount of journalistic chatter coming mainly from the CDU Party's chief of staff for Chancellor Merkel (Helge Braun), who says things to the idea that a day will come (probably after the September election)....where the vaccinated folks will get things....and the non-vaccinated folks will not get certain things (access to theaters, soccer stadiums, museums, in-door restaurants/cafes/bars).
How this would work? That's generally left out of the discussion.
If you were asking me....I would assume that after the election....the coalition 'build' agreement (the SPD or the Greens), would include a statement that the government would issue an order that they have such authority and would use it.
Constitutional? Well....let's just say that it will be immediately challenged in court and the Constitutional Court will spend six months talking over the government 'right', and may eventually in spring of 2022 say that they'd (referring to the government) have to change the Constitution to make this a governmental power. Whether they'd do this or not....it's just a guess. The fear of them being accused of fascism or 1930's style abuse? I think it'd tie discussions up for months, and the whole 'punishment' angle for non-vaccinated folks would fall apart.
Would this influence the non-vaccination crowd into getting it? It's a 50-50 proposition. Some of the non-vaccination folks might go over to the counterfeit crowd, and get their 'fake' shot, causing an even bigger crisis, if you ask me. Some will just demonstrate in front of pubs and bars.
Could bars, pubs, soccer stadiums and theaters do without 20-percent of the current customer group? I have my doubts on this. Some bar owners would come straight to the government and hint that they expect less taxation since they lost business and profits.
Does this threat by Braun change the outcome of the election? No one is saying that. Maybe out of a thousand German voters....maybe forty of them (my estimate) are peeved enough about the statement to shake off their pro-CDU or pro-SPD vote.
As for their herd-immunity statements of the fall of 2020....where they only needed 65-percent to make themselves happy? Well....some Germans will laugh and say they remember that suggestion being made by a dozen virus-experts and politicians.
The new herd-immunity statements? Mostly suggesting 75-percent is a 'good-start', and the hint that not even 80-percent will be enough. Where are the Germans on the first shot situation (as of 24 July 2021)? 60.8 percent. On the wrap-up of the second-shot? Around 49.1-percent. All data from Wiesbadenaktuell.com.
This whole herd-immunity discussion erupting in the political campaign? Well....no. You'd think that a quarter of the population would be kinda peeved and want journalists to ask more direct questions....but that's not going to happen.
One odd aspect of this discussion...over the past two months with the Delta-variant out there....there's been this odd public discussion via public TV news....that a booster shot will be mandated. When? It's not really something with an ironclad date on it. Sometimes, you hear a comment that the booster shot will be ready by late December 2021.
So by this chatter, you get the impression that while folks may think they are done once they get the two-shot deal on the vaccination....it's now likely that they will be mandated in some fashion to get the booster. The question then becomes....if you refuse the booster (having gotten the initial two-shot deal)....will you be dumped into the non-access group (forbidden access to soccer stadiums and indoor bars)? Well....you just don't know.
Will more boosters come up year-by-year? This is another 'you just don't know' situation.
It is a curious situation, and will likely play out to be a top ten topic in 2022, with probably a quarter of the population in a frustrated state of mind. Don't worry....state-by-state elections will occur in 2022, and these frustrated folks will have a chance to 'fire' parties then.
The chatter this week....after the storm business, is that the government (mostly a federal project) will hand down in the summer of 2022 a program that will enable a town to send out SMS messages to everyone in the town/village to warn of a urgent weather front that threatens the lives of people in the town/village.
The technology? Well...the technology has been out there for a decade or more....at least in the US.
Why it takes one entire year? That's not explained in detail. I suspect that making the 'funnel' for each village, deciding who authorizes the message, and who pushes the button....probably is the bulk of the problem.
I sat there pondering over this. I live in a valley that is about 5 minutes driving from the city limits of Wiesbaden. A hefty hill separates the village from the city.
How many weather events do we have each year that fit into this profile? I'd say one event where mild flooding (to your ankles, at least out on the street) and probably six to eight where they suspect something bad is coming, but it never materializes to that degree.
The chief issue though....if you sent out a weather-warning SMS at 1 AM.....would I even react to it? Would I have the smart-phone on the bedside table? Would it be like those three evenings a month where I'm down to 2-percent 'juice' left on the battery at 8 PM and just forget to charge up the phone?
Wouldn't it be better to have some special 'siren' sound installed into the smart-phone, and just activate like some WW II alert that the British bombers are coming?
The odds in a village of 4,000 people....that the alert comes on at 3 AM, and suddenly the 'shock' occurs, with four old geezers having heart attacks because of the amount of fear over the warning?
For some reason, I just don't see this SMS thing having that much success.
Over the past month, there's been a lot of hype in Germany over the Green Party's Chancellor candidate....Annalena Baerbock. The slant of the story? She wrote a book ("Jetzt"), and a fair sum of the material in the 200-odd pages were plagiarized. For German intellectuals....it's a pretty dire thing to accept.
So I noticed today....via 'The European', a plagiarism expert sat down and spent some time over Robert Habeck (the other top Green Party individual) and his book (printed in January of 2021).
His book, entitled 'Von hier an anders'.....was totally reviewed, and zero issues of plagiarism. In fact, the expert noted that Habeck cited just about everything covered...in a precise way.
So 'The European' (piece written by Stefen Weber) goes to this detail....between all of the experts who have done the review on Baerbock's book....the figure is currently reaching fifty 'problems'.
What may have happened here? If you go to the summer of 2020....Habeck was the leading person for the Green Party's Chancellor candidate. I think he anticipated that and even projected that image from the fall period of 2019. So he probably had ample time to write a book.....probably hire a good 'copy-person' who did the citation business, and ensured it was well-written.
Habeck's publisher probably had even a month or two in the process to do their own review.
Baerbock? Her 'grab' onto the Chancellor candidate status came on suddenly....around December 2020. The sales pitch was....Baerbock was more animated, while Habeck was 'wooden'. The party itself wasn't given a chance to vote on this whole thing.....it was simply the executive committee who blessed the change-over and it was a done deal.
I think Baerbock went into some turbo-mode and 'Jetzt' was written in a hurried fashion....maybe by her....maybe by her husband...maybe by some 'friend'. I don't think she hired a professional copy-person to write the draft or ensure citations were in the mix. It was simply rushed out, and the publisher didn't do any real work over the review.
If this had been a fictional work....a hot-lusty romance novel between Doctor Huns, Nurse Wanda, and the radiology technician Marvin....citations wouldn't matter. But this was a non-fiction piece....telling people how to live a proper, clean, and environmentally-pure life. Baerbock screwed up with the cut-and-paste function.
Up until that point, Baerbock had this enormous chance to almost double the vote-count from 2017, and possibly take the Chancellor position. Everything is called into question now, because of the stupid book and issues.
I sat there today....looking over news from Bavaria and this item came up via BR (public TV from Bavaria). So they talk to this topic....a bogus story that has come up over the Covid vaccination.
I will say in very strong words....BOGUS.
So the story goes....via Tik Tok, that if you were a woman and got the vaccination via the Biontech vaccine.....then you stand a chance of getting bigger boobs (two cup sizes larger).
Totally a bogus claim? Well....the science guys might make a case that swollen lymph nodes are affected, but it sure as heck won't be two cup sizes larger. At least once a day....you see a story over Covid or the vaccination business, and it's just purely fiction or crappy misinformation.
I gazed over this statistical report over flu issues in Germany, from 2020, and pondered upon it for a while. It comes from Deutsche Welle (German public TV).
When the flu season ended in the spring of 2018....they added up the numbers. Roughly 10-million Germans ended up visiting their doctors over that entire flu season.
Out of that (remember, the data comes from the impeccable RKI folks)....only 130 Germans died from the direct cause of the flu.....but around 13k were sent to the hospitals in that period.
I sat and read through CDC material.....it's odd because they (at least in the US)....never count flu deaths (they estimate them). The Germans? They actually go the extra effort and count the doctor visits, the hospitalizations, and the deaths attributed to the flu.
So when some German official or RKI guy appears to talk on something....he/she has the data to generally back up things. The CDC sometimes has data....sometimes just estimates. It's just an odd difference....an odd cultural thing that you tend to notice.
N-TV (commercial German news) had an interesting story to lay out this morning. It's worth a read.
Basically.....some experts have reviewed the down-times that schools have used since spring of 2020, and said now that kid's progression on schooling is lacking.
One central theme? Parents now given a dual role.....being parent, and instructor. Some were up to the task....some weren't.
Their suggestion is that this will all lead to problems in the future where you expected this 'kid' to be proficient at this level.....and he's simply nowhere near the area of expectations.
I look at the mess, and kinda expect someone in the government to mandate a whole extra year of classes to eventually bring kids to the proper level.
N-TV gave a decent update this morning.....over the topic of sirens.
Before unification, there were around 80,000 warning sirens in the towns and villages of East and West Germany. In the 1990s....it was decided they weren't really needed. Some stayed, and the number today is around 15,000.
From the past week....this topic has gotten hyped-up.
So the government says....as of this morning....they are going to build a national warning system that can pump out text messages to your smart-phone, depending on where you are located.
How long? Well....it's pretty complicated (rocket-science stuff) and they figure it won't be fully operational until summer of 2022.
Now, I'm not the type to usually dump bad news....but I sat and lingered over this chatter for a while, and finally asked an important question.
In my village of 4,000 folks....how many have smart-phones? Kids between 12 and 18....it's about 100-percent that have a smart-phone. Most adults? I'd say it's around 98-percent (even folks on Hartz-IV or welfare typically have one). But then you get to senior citizens....which I would suggest that it might only be 50-percent with a smart-phone, and maybe another 40-percent with those old-fashioned flip-phones. So I would take an educated guess in my village and say around fifty folks have no such phone.
The anti-technology crowd? One of my wife's former co-workers survived all the way to around 2016....without a cellphone/smart-phone. Then one day....the boss said 'enough' and forced the guy to carry a company phone. It was a sort of pride that he hauled around for twenty years of his life.
There's no way to estimate this but I would guess of every thousand German adults....you probably have ten anti-technology folks....without a PC, laptop, tab, or smart-phone.
So it's never ever going to be a complete warning to an entire village? Yeah, I'd go and suggest that they will eventually agree to fund the siren business and bring the 1940s siren back into our lives once again.
I was watching N-TV (commercial news network in Germany) this morning, and they had this Covid update.
So the topic or subject is: "Risk of illness (referring to Covid) after vaccination "not zero"".
They basically rounded up some virus experts who stood up and admitted that there is an effectiveness number to each vaccination type. X produces this...Y produces this...etc.
So you could take vaccine X, and the scientist will just say it's 92-percent effective, which means out of a one-hundred people....8 folks won't find it very effective. Who are the eight? Well...you don't know. Maybe they were in bad physical shape. Maybe they had past problems with cancer or diabetes. There could be a thousand different ways that the eight fall into the other category. Some may have had just a bad or low level of vitamin D in their system.
Why bring any of this up?
Well....it comes down to this. You get Huns who comes up four months after his vaccination, and has contracted Covid-19 while at some beach resort in Italy. Huns eventually returns to Germany and gets hyped up with his doctor, and doesn't get any real explanation. Then Huns gets interviewed by some newspaper or telecast, and folks stand there looking at the government guy or virus expert.....asking them in some German sort of way.....'what the hell happened'?
A big deal? No.
But here's the bigger issue. If that effective number shifts, and starts to drop twelve months into the vaccination business...to say 80-percent, then the gimmick of vaccinating is rather disappointing.
Will all the vaccinations go this way? Some will stick up around 90-percent.....and I would suggest some will drop into the 80's. Some of these non-European vaccines might even drop lower.
But hey, this is what cards you've been dealt in the poker-game of Covid-19. Accept the fact, and just keep playing. Oh, and those masks? I'd keep them handy....they aren't going away.
And I should remind you....flu shots worked the same way. They aren't 100-percent effective either.
If you gaze at weather maps for my regional state of Hessen for Saturday.....BIG red triangle zone. Things are a bit hyped up and there's fear of heavy rain (STARK REGEN is the term).
Because of the flooding of last week....I asked the wife (German in nature) if we should prepare in anyway for the storm front coming on Saturday afternoon. She just looked at me.....where exactly do you want to go....was the come-back.
Our one and only shelter in the village....is actually at the lowest elevation and would be underwater if massive rains came.
The problem now....with all the political and weather hype of the past week....folks take this RED TRIANGLE business ultra-serious. I could see an entire village of 3,000 people up at midnight when the weather alert is given, and extremely worried over flooding.
A couple of months ago, the German Health Ministry made a big deal out of digital Covid vaccination certificates.....'you-gotta-have-them'.
To assemble this into a useable format....they created a computer program, and basically gave it to pharmacies across Germany. You (the Covid-vaccinated-guy) would walk in with your health card and your shot record (indicating your vaccination), and they'd put the info in, and print out a bar-code deal....which you'd scan and have on your smart-phone.
Well...yesterday, that whole program was halted. Reason? I sat and watched N-TV (commercial news in Germany) and it's an interesting 'trick' which was demonstrated. Basically, with forged (fake) documentation.....the whole thing was rigged up, and you could have a fake digital certificate....in less than five minutes.
This got to the Health Ministry, and it appears that they freaked out.....ceasing the program until they can figure out how to get around the fake documentation issue.
As suggested....you can assume all of the 25-million certificates in the system presently....are legit. I laughed over the word 'assume'.
Will this force the Health Ministry to go back and review the 25-million already in the bucket? No one says that. I doubt if they really have the manpower or capability to do this.
The whole slant to eventually favor the vaccinated folks or the non-vaccinated folks? Maybe there's an agenda there, but you'd just build up enthusiasm for fake certificates somewhere else in the system.
As for the 'fix'? No one says much over how they can correct the certificate and bogus info problem. There's probably some geek-squad in a basement....working up some master plan....with the idea of rebuilding the whole database from scratch.
I sat Wednesday night and watched a HR (public TV from Hessen) program entitled MEX. Typically, they pick up grocery discussions, economic topics, food safety, travel tips, etc. It's a forty-five minute documentary-news type program, and I'd generally rate it as worth watching.
The topic for that evening? Well....the whole thing was dedicated to convincing you to eat less meat, and to approach the vegan lifestyle.
Yes, forty-five minutes of eat-less-meat or flip-to-veganism.
On a normal show, there would be around seven to ten topic areas, and none of them connect together. It was the oddest show I've seen in a long time.
Propaganda rating? On a scale of one to ten....I'd give it around a '8'.
I would suggest...if you watch the news via public TV throughout a normal week....there's at least one segment each week which deals with the meat topic, and trying hard to convince you to either lessen your intake or go vegan.
Back around three years ago here in my 'state' of Hessen....around the town of Fulda...a bakery opened up early in the morning.
What the police say is that a guy showed up....got into a threatening behavior with the clerk....threw a rock or two at the window....injured the clerk, and then the police arrived.....where the guy did a physical attack on the cop.
I should note....the guy was a migrant (immigrant) and 19 years old at the time.
At this point in time (after the first cop was injured).....a second policeman shows up in a car. He gets out....assesses the situation...yells for the attacker to 'halt'. The attacker simply turns to run away.
So from around 150 meters away (roughly 500 ft), the 2nd policeman fired his pistol. Yeah.....I looked at this part of the story a good bit. Cop fired all 12 rounds....hitting the guy with four.
General shooting with a pistol from a distance of 150 meters? I'd suggest your odds of hitting anything is a bit too risky. Maybe with a rifle, your odds would be better served.
The migrant guy? He dies from the gunshots.
This week....a third attempt was reviewed by the local prosecutor, and he says 'no charges' will be pressed. I would imagine once the clerk and first policeman were attacked....the situation was spiraling out of control.
The family? Well....they say it's just not right.
Why the bizarre behavior at the bakery? Unknown.....far as I know....no one ever stood up to touch this. Maybe drugs or alcohol? Well....you can't find any evidence of this.
It's a funny topic.
Officially....the government of Germany had no real role in Nord Stream II (the gas pipeline through the Baltic from Russia to the coast of Germany). This was a company-to-company deal. No German government money/funding was needed. Other than the permit for the pipeline to enter the country....that was about all that was necessary.
So President Trump engaged in this whole thing, and halted the laying of the pipe. For several years....Germans grumbled and waited for President Biden to arrive, and figured he'd just undo the Trump 'hard line'.
Well....NO, that didn't happen.
So the Germans had to sit there and negotiate with Biden's team....to get the hindering business out of the way. You can laugh over the expectation that the Germans had....that just getting Trump gone....would resolve their little mess.
Next Friday....the state of Thuringia will have a vote of no-confidence. The current expectation?
Well....they will vote by party lines. The Linke Party (in charge) can count on their votes, the votes of the Greens and SPD Party.....equaling 42 votes.
The opposing votes? Right now....just the AfD (22).
The CDU and FDP? They total 26. The hint today is that they both will abstain or just skip the vote entirely. In that scenario, the no-confidence vote would fail.
The trouble here? Basically the AfD will say by abstaining....they were supporting the Linke Party. Some people might tend to agree. Presently, with polling results....the Linke Party and Greens aren't doing that well, and no-confidence vote would force another election....when they are at the weakest point.
When a German journalist writes a story, and there's been some situation where the cops have reacted (maybe using force, maybe shooting the guy, etc)....then they say 'known to the police'....it tends to mean that the guy has an arrest record but no one really wants to discuss this or how in-depth the record might be.
If you find a news event where violence was being conducted by some guy on the street, and the cops then arrive....'known to the police' means he probably has been a bad boy on more than one occasion, but 'we can't tell why'.
You can laugh about the use of the phrase, but it's mostly to protect the records of the 'bad boy'. The German phrase? ".....zuvor bereits polizeibekannt."
Last night (Tuesday), if you sat at 8:15 PM on ZDF (Channel Two from public TV)....you basically got almost four hours of straight flood-climate change-who-to-blame talk....live and taped....without any commercials.
Even when the first show ended around 9 PM, the next show (Frontal) jumped into the same topic area and continued on.
I probably got about 15 minutes of this coverage, and then flipped channels. Today, there's a number of folks chatting about this business, and what they point out....mayors and local folks knew more of the lacking actions than the federal folks out of Berlin.
Lets be honest, most towns get X-amount of money, and they stretch it as far as they can. Flood control isn't exactly a thrilling topic, and the federal folks would never go to extremes to fund up ten-thousand-odd flood-control improvement projects around the nation.
All this siren chatter, and getting people to evacuate? It's probably time to be honest about that admit that a community might hear that siren fifteen times a year, and after playing the evacuation drill three or four times at midnight....the enthusiasm will end rather quickly.
Between my village and the regional town of Wiesbaden....we have a community that is built on a stream that runs through the middle of the village. For decades, about once every ten years....the village flooded to a minor degree. About five years ago, they saved up a ton of money and did a flood control project. They won't say it's perfect, but it'd take a heck of a hard storm to flood the town at this point.
As for the four hours of coverage generating a lot of public interest? It's hard to say.
I watched RTL commercial news today, and a new poll came out for the September national election.
Bad news?
Well....for the CDU, Merkel's party, they slipped. Now at 28-percent (from 30-percent two weeks ago).
SPD? 16-percent.
Greens? 19-percent.
The Linke follow with 7-percent, the AfD with 10-percent, and the FDP at 12-percent.
What this presents? While the CDU will likely win....to piece together a coalition is a fairly messy episode. Partnering with the Greens alone....won't give you a majority.
Going for a CDU-CSU, Greens, FDP situation or a CDU-CSU, SPD, FDP deal? You'd weaken the CDU promises by a massive amount, and marginally give the CDU any real minister slots.
While Laschet will likely win the Chancellor job....I don't see a lot of success stories for the coalition for the next four years.
2021 will go down (at least presently).....as the mildest summer in central Germany....in decades.
At this point and projecting up to 1 August....we've had in the Wiesbaden region only four days where the temperature exceeded 30 C (86 degrees F). That's it. Chief reason? It basically goes to the Gulf Stream, and cooler airflow for the past three months.
As for this 'red-zone' activity chatter? Well...the regional weather guy has identified the Wiesbaden area for Saturday's predictions and put the bright red triangle up....meaning extremely heavy rain, winds, and potential floods. Yes, 72 hours prior to the 'event'....there's chaos and damage being discussed.
All of this, and the damage from last week in the Pfalz/NRW....has some folks hyped-up.
As for that AC unit I bought last year, and expecting the heat of 2021? It just sits there....gathering dust.
Focus carried an update this morning.....over this new rule the EU is proposing....limiting all cash situations to 10,000 Euro, period.
What makes this important? The EU says there's too much money-laundering going on.
Do European countries already have some rules in place? Yes....examples, Greece has a rule that you can only walk in and do a deal with 500 Euro in cash.
Affecting Germany? Well....German and Austria both have no rules over cash situations. You could walk in and conclude a home-purchase deal, and lay 350,000 Euro in cash on the table.
Would this rule stop all money-laundering? Most people in general....think that it'd just trigger the money-laundering folks to rethink their strategy, and invent a whole new method.
If you went to most working-class Germans....they'd tell you that in an average year.....they never moved more than 500 Euro a month around in terms of 'cash'. On occasions....like paying for airline tickets....it's all electronic transfer.
Couple of weeks ago (25 June), I chatted over a murder situation here in Wurzburg, Germany......Somali guy who stabbed some folks in a store....cops caught the guy. He's been under mental testing for the past four weeks.
Today, BR came out and said the guy's mental review is complete.
So three facts:
1. 'Mentally unstable' is the outcome of the review.
2. Police have been unable to conduct an interrogation of the guy....to reach any conclusion.
3. Conclusion over the Islamic connection? Zero. He's not even competent enough to claim any religious feeling.
So what happens? Judge is recommending for a mental facility.
Should this type of mental review have occurred back when he arrived in 2015? Maybe, but there's no law on the books to 'herd' incoming asylum seekers to that type of situation.
It'll peeve some folks off but the case likely ends here (with three dead).
There's still a lot of flood chatter going on.
Presently, via the afternoon news....they figure around 40,000 people in the Ahr valley region (NW Germany) are without water, electricity and natural gas. Long term? The way that the journalists put it....just getting streets back into operational shape in some of these villages....may take three to four months. The natural gas lines? Journalists are being told six months minimum of work required.
Talk of more Covid 'out-breaks'? This came up via public TV (ARD) today. Lot of physical work taking place....without masks.
Drinking water? That got brought up as well, and in several villages....they won't have clean drinking water for the rest of 2021.
Missing people still? This is still a top three problem and without cell-towers in these locations....it's hard to call folks and get a confirmation on where they are presently.
Typically, in residential apartment-type neighborhoods.....you have a six-sided structure.....with an opening for a window and a doorway on the rear. Here....beer, smokes, and various snacks are sold.
If you had done an audit in the 1970s.....there x-number of them, and I would suggest that today (2021)....it's probably half the number in existence.
Typically, it's where guys would hang out, or older teens....to sip a beer and share gossip.
Profitable operation? I would suggest most of the closures over the past twenty years go to the problem that it's marginally profitable now. As the owner, you end up working sixteen hours a day, and it demands a lot of your free time.
Over the past three days, there's been a whole lot of news chatter, with politicians and weather folks talking about 'fixing' problems.
So what they are all aiming at....each community would have this warning siren (most all German communities already have such a siren), and that when the weather folks give a 'warning' announcement.....there would be a 'forced' (not described in detail) evacuation.
I sat and reviewed this type of emergency, the general plan of action, and how it would ultimately fail.
In a normal year.....my 'zone' (really the entire district around Wiesbaden) probably gets a red-warning about ten times minimum (some years, probably closer to twenty occasions). The red-warning concerns two events: heavy wind or heavy rain.
I'll admit that the weather guys are generally correct in the prediction....even giving the announcement four hours prior to the effective period (maybe two hours....maybe up to six hours).
But if you gave this warning at 10 PM....telling people the storm will start up around midnight....then what? Where are you going to send me? The gym in the village is actually in a direct line with the flood plain area....so it makes no sense to tell people to report there.
Would I get up at 10 PM and drive off to somewhere? Doubtful. Even if you said this at 7 AM....it's doubtful that I'd go somewhere.
Should I just get in my car and drive twenty miles outside of the zone? I doubt it.
In nine times out of ten....the storm might be pretty hefty, but not enough to flood the area or make you worry.
The odds that 99-percent of people wouldn't react or get motivated at 1AM to find higher ground? I'd say that's a pretty fair possibility.
The one thing I do see.....for all those folks who live in a valley region and a stream running through the middle of it.....this chatter going on is worrying folks to an extreme level. Even if leadership said that pro-active flood action should take place.....who has the hundreds of billions required to resolve all the actions necessary?
I noticed a curious 'Watts Ups With That' story today where they talked about the flood in Germany from last week, and something people noticed two to three weeks ago.
If you've been around the western side of Germany for the past month.....there's been a lot of rain (even before the damaging storms of last week).
Well....some people were noticing in reservoirs and lakes....dams were holding back a fair sum of water. They were letting the authorities to know about the excess water building up to the top....but nothing really came out of this chatter.
Part of the flood blame going back to zero activity on letting water go early? Well....you don't know.
In my regional state of Hessen here in Germany.....they held a meeting today on Covid....then changed two rules.
1. Discos are still forbidden from having indoor dancing (too much huffing and puffing from you guys)....but you can dance outside. They admit, they are working on a scheme where indoor dancing might be possible, but the arena has to allow five square meters per person. Don't go expecting much else to change.
I'm expecting illegal dancing in the woods or parks....to be the only way to resolve the problem.
2. They agreed to dump the 'test-requirement' for Covid, if you wanted to eat indoors. Outdoors....no mandate.
Right now....no one really wants to eat indoors, but for probably 50-percent of restaurants....they just didn't have outdoor capability.
So to explain this in plain simple talk....the state election in Thuringian back on 27 October 2019 failed....no coalition government could be resolved.
Because of the messy way this came out (the AfD coming in second place with 23-percent, and the CDU coming in third with 22-percent).....the second and third place folks refused to be part of the coalition. The winner? The Linke Party.
So the option of the SPD and Greens being the 'partner'? That wouldn't give them the numbers.
An agreement was worked up....instead of another election....they agreed to get up to 26 September 2021, and have another state election.
Well....today, that idea fell apart. The agreement by the Green Party and Linke Party said the agreement is tossed. Now? It will be a minority government until October 2024....or when an opposition group of parties says 'enough' and forces a no-confidence vote.
What all of this might mean? The fear of the Linke Party and SPD Party getting a insufficient number? I would suggest that polling is showing a five-point loss off the 2019 election for the Linke Party, and for the Greens....they might only manage a 5-to-6 point win. In this scenario, AfD might win, and just run a minority government for five years.
You might as well stall the election for twelve months minimum and hope that the opposition doesn't call your bluff.
A big discussion item? No.....maybe around the state itself, it'll be a top ten subject.....but it's not a national topic.
Update: A resolution to dissolve the state assembly? Well, from last night (Sunday)....it appears that enough votes exist to accomplish that. However....around four of the votes are shaky at this point. A vote of no-confidence? It doesn't appear to be much of a priority. If you asked me about the likely outcome? I'd predict a quiet period after the federal election in September, and a dissolving of the assembly will occur in early 2022. There'll still be a state election....maybe around April-May of 2022 (my prediction).
This morning via N-24 news....they chatted for a moment over the number of asylum applications from 1 January, to the end of June (six months). Germany took 47,231 applications. If you did the math....it would suggest that 2021 would end with just around 100k applications.
Does it mean 100k were accepted? No. It means around 100k applied. You have to word this in a particular way when you are discussing the topic with a journalist or politicians in Germany.
Is it a lot? No....typically before 2013....the number revolved around 200k to 250k a year, on average.
Regional (Hessen) prosecutors have opened up an investigation into 'quickie' Covid tests at these 'stations' around the state.
The accusation? Well....HR tells the basic story. You have a Kassel (sizeable town in north Hessen) Covid test center....which turned in the paperwork to be reimbursed for around a million Euro for the months of April and May.
The prosecution folks say the high number of tests were simply 'faked'. Detained? So far, two folks.
This 'company' also active in other cities? Yes (Hanover and Leipzig are mentioned).
So if they were faked, and a million Euro in the balance....just how many tests are we talking about? Well....around 55,500 fake tests (figuring 18 Euro is the standard cost factor for the 'quickie' centers for each test). You'd basically be saying that two folks running this 'center' were testing around 925 individuals a day, or sixty people every hour of operation....including weekends.
My humble guess is that some of the tests were legit, and some were fake. Proving all of this in court? I think it'll be more difficult than the prosecutor is imagining.
For the past three days, there's been a lot of chatter going on in Germany over the flooding and destruction business. What you can generally say is that a couple of communities in the states of North Rhineland Westphalia and Rhineland Pfalz....got hit by something you'd call a microburst of rainfall.
To explain a microburst of rainfall? You have 'super' conditions: rapidly sinking airflow in a thunderstorm....where hail and extremely heavy rain occur in a very tight circle.
My experience around twenty years ago in my old village (near K-Town): late afternoon....a storm front moves in on a Saturday afternoon. My village sat at the base of a farming area which had the higher elevation (maybe 50 meters higher than the village, and lying about two km away. The 'slant'.....would bring any rainfall into the village, but the storm system (drainage ditches were made to handle the worst of the worst).
Rain started and in roughly five minutes....it went from drizzle to heavy rain, and five minutes later....the front was dumping an inch of rain around every five minutes. It was more than the farmland on the higher elevation could handle, and around minute twenty of this experience....you could see the excess going past the drainage ditch area, and proceeding into the village.
Around minute thirty....probably two inches of cascading water was progressing down through the village streets. Around minute forty....probably twelve inches of rain was progressing down the village streets.
Around minute fifty, the rain stopped, but the flooding continued. The village drainage system did eventually catch up and move the water along....but that was around two to three hours later.
In the case of this event from three days ago....it went by the same scenario. These were towns with hills on all sides, and the microburst of water brought excess water to middle of the village....destroying everything in its path. Their drainage system was built for the worst of the worst.....but probably only halfway capable for what this event delivered.
Microbursts and history? Well...they've been around forever. It's nothing new. It's just that it's rare and some bursts occur in non-populated areas. Connected to the evil 'demon' of climate change? Once you establish that they've existed for millions of years....the 'demon' thing is a joke. However, this will provoke the pro-demon enthusiasts to get on board and declare microburst a evil thing.
I should note....some people already believe that the nation should make every town and village 'safe' from microbursts. You'd be talking about hundreds of billions to build the mechanisms required.
From the two western German states of NRW and Rhineland Pfalz....it was a remarkable amount of heavy rain that occurred in the past 36 hours, and a massive amount of flood damage. Current tally on deaths? 59. Missing? Near 1,300.
There's also word this morning that a dam near Aachen is overflowing in a serious way.
Talk of more rain? Well....yeah.
Even here in my region of Hessen....flooding along the Rhine has weakened a state highway (B42) area along the river near Lorch. There's several km's of road that is closed off, and probably will require a month minimum of work to reinforce it.
Channel One (ARD, public TV) talked to a sensitive subject in Germany....speed limits.
The hype? Several environmental groups and transport associations stood up....with the NRW state Police Union supporting their agenda.....saying that new speed limits need to exist.
The agenda?
For a long while, it's been only the idea of the autobahn speed limit being established at 130 kph (80 mph).
Generally, through urban areas of Germany, you now find the standard set at 100 kph. I'd suggest around 60-percent of the autobahn roads are unlimited. Most folks, if you ask them to be honest....will admit they drive somewhere between 100 and 130 kph already. My own estimate is that around 10-percent of Germans will drive above 130 kph on regular basis.
But this agenda apparently does not end there. What this group also wants....is a city speed limit of 30 kph (down from the 50 kph currently) and a state road limit of 80 kph (down from 100 kph).
80 kph (49 mph)? On regular state roads? That's the push of the agenda.
I would imagine that if you approached most Germans....more than 80-percent won't buy into that idea.
What's the payback? Saving gas (course gas/diesel car sales are ending in less than 9 years....so why bother)? The cops bought into the agenda because they say....less speed....less accidents.
Where this is heading? I suspect that the CDU-CSU apparatus after the election.....has coalition-building troubles, and they will agree to one change...allowing the states to manage the speed limits themselves. Some states will buy into the 130 kph, and some won't. Some states would buy into the 80 kph limit on state roads, and some won't.
A big deal? Well....they aren't going to allow the general public to vote on this. So it'll be a fair amount of grumbling going on.
It's just over two months away now for the federal election, and yesterday....the national government stood up and announced some things to indicate that they are worried about the integrity of the election. Mostly, they are fearful of propaganda being introduced, and that fake news might fake out Germans.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) did a talk over the subject that I noticed this morning and I'd recommend a read of it.
Fear of bogus ballots? No, the system is actually built to prevent that.
I think the bulk of this fear is simply some corruption story will be thrown into the cycle, and suddenly people have doubts about this candidate or this political party.
Who would inject propaganda into the system? Some people suggest that Russia or Russia-supporting individuals might do something.
The problem here....as much as people get all chatty about social media....the numbers aren't that great. Facebook members in Germany (as of June 2021)....are around 49-million, but I suspect that near half simply have it to connect to friends, and it's not a major news-providing service. As for German Twitter uses, the 2020 data says that only 5.45-million have the Twitter App and are 'members'. Remember....the total population of Germany is 83-million.
What you can take out of this chatter......mostly that people think the campaign season could be drawn into some wild accusation and the election ends up in a corruption state of being.
This is an interesting story that you probably won't hear about via ARD or ZDF public TV. Focus picked up the basic facts to it, and I'll relate the entire story.
Back in the fall of 2018....(October timeframe)....around 2 AM in the morning....a fire started up in a pub in Chemnitz. For location.....this is in the eastern region of Germany, and a fairly large city.
The pub? Owned by a Turkish guy.
When the firemen had cleared out things.....there was around half-a-million Euro of damage. Blame? Well....right away....it was neo-Nazi or right-wing extremists.
The owner, the mayor, the city council, the whole community, the Berlin leadership, the state Premier-President, the Chancellor, and the folks at public TV....all jumped onto this business and hyped the evil right-wing extremists.
So the fire inspector looked at things, and there's some problems with this fire. Cops get involved, then the chief prosecutor get deep into the investigation.
Last week, without saying much....cops came to arrest the pub owner (49-year old guy) and an associate of his (mid-30s) were taken.
Additional charges? Well....there's around fifteen crimes that the prosecutor is looking into....attempted murder, arson, and fraud among them. Odds that the guy is tied into a crime clan group? Well....once you get up over five or six charges....it just looks awful suspicious.
So this whole chatter business over the evil right-wing extremists or neo-Nazis? All fake? Yeah.
Will ARD or ZDF admit this update? I kinda doubt it.
The comical side of this? Merkel made a trip out to Chemnitz, and got her picture taken with the pub owner/arsonist.
My advice? When you hear of some massive crime, and an unknown group of right-wing extremists responsible.....I'd pause and just wait for the police to do their investigation. Maybe it's true.....maybe it's not true at all.
I admit....it did sound good to dump blame on the evil neo-Nazis. But if this was just imaginary Nazis.....it doesn't do much good to get all chatty or hyped-up.
Well....the Bavarian Premier-President (Soder, CSU), came out this morning and said he wants the free 'quickie' tests for Covid (costing the government 18-Euro) to end....for those who have not been vaccinated.
For those outside of Germany, the system (developed toward the fall of 2020)....was a somewhat 'licensed' operation (any idiot could open up a station), and as folks would come in....they'd be tested (showing their passport/ID), and be notified within two hours via text that they were free of Covid (or have Covid). Each village had a station set up....sometimes by the Red Cross....sometimes, just private individuals....sometimes by organized crime clans.
The accusations of corruption in this business? That started up two months ago, and there's a fair amount of criticism going on....to suggest that some (probably 10-percent) of the business is faked-up.
As for the reliability? Well....last week, a Hamburg clinic examined the positives given by these 'quickie' test centers, and discovered that over half of the positives....were false-positives. It was a worthless test result.
But here's the thing, once we go back into a lockdown situation....they will mandate that you have to be tested, and show the results to enter a pub, bar, arena, concert, or restaurant. If Soder's 'dream' is to force unvaccinated people down this pay....paying 18 Euro for the test results....then it invites a whole bunch of anger and frustration upon the general public.
The cost factor upon the government? Most people haven't asked questions over that amount, and has to be a significant amount spent monthly to keep this 'gimmick' up and running.
Where this will end up? I'm guessing by October....this agenda is picked up and some type of shutdown business starts up as the virus numbers increase. The free Covid tests disappear, and you end up with a quarter of the German population in a fairly negative view of the whole business of testing. The amusing thing here is that if you call your doctor and cite symptoms....he'll take your health-card and charge a 'free' test off on the insurance. That was the normal 'game' up until they invented this quickie-Covid test deal.
Maybe we should just stick with that method and dump this whole free quickie-test anyway.
German federal police are saying this morning (Wed) that they are in the process of raiding a number of ISIS 'clubs' around central Germany, which were handling/financing terror acts, and in the process of planning a new attack. Locations? Nothing yet said. More to come tonight.
Update: News folks are saying around a hundred police involved. Ten search warrants. Two gals and eight guys (20 to 51)....Turks, Afghans, Germans, and Kosovars. Through some method....couple of them were moving money out of Germany....to Syria....into the hands of ISIS.
Is 'fake news' a hot topic in Germany today (July 2021)?
Generally, I'd say no. Journalists may hype the concept and suggest that they can help save you from fake news....but if you gathered up a hundred Germans and tried to assign a value to fake news being important....I'd suggest fewer than 10-percent think it ought to rank as a top ten problem.
Last year, I noticed a piece written where regular Germans were asked about information and how they got it. Most said they had chats with friends or relatives. After that....they would review the internet, read the newspapers, listen to radio news, or view nightly TV news. Finally, they'd go to their local library to read up via their resources.
I would suggest that the bulk of German adults today....just aren't that fascinated with politics, or the 'bubble' around politics. It might be as many as two-thirds of the general public feeling that way.
These public TV forums that come and go each week via ARD or ZDF? There just aren't that many people who feel attached to the topics discussed.
Is the fake news agenda peaking out in Germany? Well....I don't think it ever arose that much or gained a lot popular support.
The trend I would suggest is that news is undergoing a evolution, and it's going to be a rough period for some journalists to survive.
No evidence at this point that the riot business has peaked out. But if you look at grocery and food market looting....there's not much left to loot. Some journalists hint that food shortages will start to be seen within the next two to three days. So I'll make these these five predictions:
1. By middle of next week....South Africa will ask for food resupply efforts from several neighboring countries. These trucks (limited number) will make an effort to deliver....only to be halted on the roads....then looted there.
2. Mass starvation situation will be obvious by the end of July.
3. Civil war to some degree erupts by late August. Neighboring countries will start to worry over refugees and stability.
4. As much as the ANC (African National Congress) is the sole authority of the government....it's likely to dissolve or break-up over the next two to three months.
5. Just about every single weak point or negative mentioned in the 1990s of the new authority of South African politics.....has now come true.
Via N-TV news this morning....this interesting topic came up.
In Germany, there are around 11-million people who are voters, and they have a migration/immigration background.
So the journalists point this out....none of the German parties really captivate these 11-million.
The larger group of these 'new' Germans? Well....the Russians. Roughly half of the Russian group based their political standing onto the CDU-CSU folks (right of center).
This dynamic of 'new' Germans being a 'wild-card'? No doubt. But the system isn't really designed to cater to 'new' Germans.
For those who weren't aware....public TV in Germany is under a fair amount of pressure. It's coming from three angles.
First, ARD (the controller of the public TV 'empire') wanted a 'payraise' last year (from currently 17.50 Euro a month per residence). They have to have permission from all sixteen states (not a majority..ALL of them). Fifteen agreed....one said 'no', mostly because they'd told them to reorganize back seven years ago, and they failed to reorganize in the seven year period. It would be correct to say that ARD was extremely peeved that this re-org demand came up again.
Second, the governor's board over them (non-ARD employees)....has been pushing them along each year to evolve/change. The mindset of most ARD managers/executives has not been fully drawn into the evolution stage.
Third, to be frank....young Germans aren't interested in public TV and are negative about the monthly TV/media tax business. A lot of them would prefer that ARD get trimmed down in size, and the tax ought to be cut in half. In the next ten years....those folks might have a majority of voters lined up to do serious damage to public TV.
So I noticed this morning a Focus article talking about this whole thing. New problem has erupted.
Based on some polling....the executives at ARD came to this new evolutionary concept. Consumers think there's too much news going on via ARD/ZDF (the two public TV networks). It's not just nightly news that is being criticized....it's the 'magazine' format (there's around six news-related programs....(Panorama, Monitor, Kontraste, Fakt, Report Mainz and Report Munich).
The blunt side of this discussion....fair number of younger people commented that there's way too much news going on, and they'd prefer shows, movies, regular non-news stuff.
So the ARD executives came up with an order. Cuts on news content.
Man, that got the news-journalists all hyped-up. They wrote up a letter and had a bunch of them sign it....that this was totally wrong. They didn't want their programming replaced with sports shows or such. They also felt their news formats were fighting the terrible 'fake-news' stuff.
Behind all of this....if the evolution were to occur, you could probably dismiss around 20-percent of the journalists currently working for ARD/ZDF.
The concept of news documentary pieces? The executives see those expanding out. I would guess and say that around six to eight a week come out....mostly something done by a three-man team....one simple subject....with a day to six months of filming involved to tell a story. Some of these, I'd rate four-star. Some....one-star. They tend to run 30 to 40 minutes, and just tell a story.
How much news, public forum shows, and news documentary pieces run now off ARD/ZDF? It's probably forty hours per week between the two but this would mean from 6 AM to midnight.
If you asked me personally....is there too much news now on public TV? I'd say that the content is questionable, and if I'm not accepting it.....I just flip the channel to one of the eight commercial networks, or to Disney-Plus/Netflix.
So to the final order that was discussed by the executives....there's a Sunday night show (usually around 10:15 PM) which is called Tagespiegel. It's mostly international news chatter...picking out the four top items of the week and spending around six to nine minutes on each one. The executives said....move it to Monday nights....10:50 PM (yeah, real late, but you could record it and play it later).
The journalists at ARD/ZDF went crazy over that idea. The 10:50 PM Monday slot? Most Germans would be asleep by that point. How many folks watch this currently? Unknown....that's something might be interesting to know.
Where is all of this heading? The executives of ARD probably aren't happy with the public sentiment....that they must evolve. But the journalists are even less happy....feeling the pressure is on and some of them might be cast off into the 'wilderness'. Consumers are just standing there....paying for something of value around 17.50 Euro a month, and questioning why they have to pay for something that they don't watch.
