The Likely New Chancellor

 We are about two months away from the election here in Germany, and based on the current trend....it's a 90-percent chance that the CDU Party's Armin Laschet will be the winner.  So five observations:

1.  In the summer of 2020, if you'd asked most Germans....they would have said that CSU's Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria) or CDU member Friedrich Merz....were well ahead of Laschet, and more popular.  At the same time, most of the news groups were hyped-up on the Green Party's Robert Habeck.  

Then things kinda changed toward the end of 2020.....both Merz and Sodder got pushed back by the internal party mechanism, and Laschet became the primary choice within the party itself.  Remember....the public doesn't get into the party selection process....only members of the party can select the candidate.  Laschet's selling point?  A carbon copy for the most part of Merkel.  

As  for Habeck.....he fell behind at the end of the year, and Annalena Baerbock rose.  You could make the case that Habeck was not dynamic....while Baerbock gave some enthusiastic speeches.  

2.  On Laschet himself?  Viewing his past thirty years, you'd say he was a progressive conservative, mostly 'center-center' (not right of center).  He's from the northwest of Germany (NRW).  On debate skills, there's probably twenty-odd CDU members more capable than him.  On speech skills, there's probably twenty-odd CDU members better than him.  

He's been the Premier-President of NRW since 2017.  

If you measured Merkel's position on things....Laschet falls fairly close to that position in 90-percent of the topics.  

3.  Everyone in the CDU united behind Laschet?  Well.....not exactly.  It's true that Merz is pro-Laschet, and probably expect the Finance Minister position. Soder is unhappy but simply accepting the situation....I'd suggest it's 50-50 odds on Soder getting a minister position when the smoke clears.

Within the rest of the party?  About 70-odd percent are pro-Laschet, and the rest simply shake their heads....wanting a detachment from the Merkel period, and this is not going to be a long-term situation.

4.  The coalition after the election?  Simply impossible to predict.  The CDU probably won't get above 32-percent on the vote, and neither the Greens or SPD  will clear more than 20-percent each (very likely the Greens will fall to around 16-percent presently).  

So there's chatter that the CDU may attempt a minority government, with no partner. 

5.  Finally, to this idea that I've seen in the past couple of months....that Laschet is a 'filler' and will be gone by 2025?  I do agree....once the smoke clears on this election....the Green Party is likely to clean their house, and Baerbock will step back away....with a rebuilding likely to occur.  Same story for the SPD.

But I'll point this out....at various stages twenty years ago....Merkel was also considered a brief 'filler', and things just kept working out.....so she stayed.  

I wouldn't refer to the next four years as a bold new era....it's basically the Merkel-era....in a different tint, and not much changes.