Sunday, July 18, 2021

Thuringian State Election Cancelled?

 So to explain this in plain simple talk....the state election in Thuringian back on 27 October 2019 failed....no coalition government could be resolved.

Because of the messy way this came out (the AfD coming in second place with 23-percent, and the CDU coming in third with 22-percent).....the second and third place folks refused to be part of the coalition.  The winner?  The Linke Party.  

So the option of the SPD and Greens being the 'partner'?  That wouldn't give them the numbers.

An agreement was worked up....instead of another election....they agreed to get up to 26 September 2021, and have another state election.

Well....today, that idea fell apart.  The agreement by the Green Party and Linke Party said the agreement is tossed.  Now?  It will be a minority government until October 2024....or when an opposition group of parties says 'enough' and forces a no-confidence vote.

What all of this might mean?  The fear of the Linke Party and SPD Party getting a insufficient number?  I would suggest that polling is showing a five-point loss off the 2019 election for the Linke Party, and for the Greens....they might only manage a 5-to-6 point win.  In this scenario, AfD might win, and just run a minority government for five years. 

You might as well stall the election for twelve months minimum and hope that the opposition doesn't call your bluff.

A big discussion item?  No.....maybe around the state itself, it'll be a top ten subject.....but it's not a national topic. 

Update: A resolution to dissolve the state assembly?  Well, from last night (Sunday)....it appears that enough votes exist to accomplish that.  However....around four of the votes are shaky at this point.  A vote of no-confidence?  It doesn't appear to be much of a priority.  If you asked me about the likely outcome?  I'd predict a quiet period after the federal election in September, and a dissolving of the assembly will occur in early 2022.  There'll still be a state election....maybe around April-May of 2022 (my prediction).  

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