Over the past three days, there's been a whole lot of news chatter, with politicians and weather folks talking about 'fixing' problems.
So what they are all aiming at....each community would have this warning siren (most all German communities already have such a siren), and that when the weather folks give a 'warning' announcement.....there would be a 'forced' (not described in detail) evacuation.
I sat and reviewed this type of emergency, the general plan of action, and how it would ultimately fail.
In a normal year.....my 'zone' (really the entire district around Wiesbaden) probably gets a red-warning about ten times minimum (some years, probably closer to twenty occasions). The red-warning concerns two events: heavy wind or heavy rain.
I'll admit that the weather guys are generally correct in the prediction....even giving the announcement four hours prior to the effective period (maybe two hours....maybe up to six hours).
But if you gave this warning at 10 PM....telling people the storm will start up around midnight....then what? Where are you going to send me? The gym in the village is actually in a direct line with the flood plain area....so it makes no sense to tell people to report there.
Would I get up at 10 PM and drive off to somewhere? Doubtful. Even if you said this at 7 AM....it's doubtful that I'd go somewhere.
Should I just get in my car and drive twenty miles outside of the zone? I doubt it.
In nine times out of ten....the storm might be pretty hefty, but not enough to flood the area or make you worry.
The odds that 99-percent of people wouldn't react or get motivated at 1AM to find higher ground? I'd say that's a pretty fair possibility.
The one thing I do see.....for all those folks who live in a valley region and a stream running through the middle of it.....this chatter going on is worrying folks to an extreme level. Even if leadership said that pro-active flood action should take place.....who has the hundreds of billions required to resolve all the actions necessary?
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