Chatter started up over the weekend....with numbers appearing to show that the SPD will absolutely win the election, and possibly the Greens/Linke Party have the numbers to partner-up....meaning a left-coalition.
So, the NATO position was brought up. Previously, it was a pretty solid position of the Linke Party to withdraw from NATO. For the Greens (1980s), that was a former position as well.
What the Linke and Greens say today? They are somewhat positive over NATO but they also don't like the 2-percent of GDP mandate (you remember the blunt talk that Trump had).
So if you take this chatter, and look at the landscape, I'd suggest this scenario unfolding:
1. A SPD-Green-Linke coalition would be around for four years. They absolutely will not fund at the 2-percent level, and it would shock me if they go even past the 1-percent level.
2. Foreign deployments will likely become non-existent (beyond the EU borders).
3. Various members of NATO will view this lessening of financial support as a major negative and continually go negative over Germany.
4. For those who've been observing the German military and maintenance problems of the past decade.....I'd go and expect the maintenance problems to only double in size over the next four years.
This should be an interesting situation to watch unfold.
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