We are near 660 days of war between Ukraine and Russia. I don't essay much over the war anymore....it's at a virtual standstill. Any plus-up that Russia had....ended mostly by the beginning of 2023. Any plus-up that Ukraine had...dissolved by the end of spring 2023. It's turned into a WW I-like war at this point, with neither party able to achieve results.
So I'll make five observations:
1. Economically, there's enough evidence now to say Russia has a long-lasting problem, and any industry or commerce still....is just marginally hanging on. Some folks found a way to invent a Russian McDonalds....but the general opinion is that its not the same quality.
Russians do trips into Turkey and Thailand....with what cash they can score. Airports still operate but it's nothing like it was prior to the war.
Ukraine surviving economically? Strictly because of the EU and US efforts.
2. Peace ever coming? If and when Putin passes....will some 'deal' be worked out.
3. The SE section of Ukraine to be forever some heavily damaged war-zone? Yeah, and those Russian-Ukrainians will be shaking their heads for decades....as marginal help from Russia ever occurs.
4. These 1.5-million-odd Russian guys who exited Russia in 2022....thinking they'd be drafted sooner or later? I don't think any of them will ever return.
5. The million-plus Ukrainians in Germany ever returning to Ukraine? At least half of them will end being permanent.
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