3 July 2024: Eight German News Stories

 1.  It is sorta comical....Victor Orban, President of Hungary and considered a right-wing guy (at least by the German news media).....says he has a new strategy for the EU....entitled: 'Make the EU great again'.  Yeah, he took it from Trump.  

I'll just say as the public media in Germany heard this....they got hyped-up over the idea that they weren't great anymore.

2.  Fair stretch of the autobahn between Forst and Roggosen  (eastern side of Germany, Autobahn 15)....partially closed due to heat damage.

Ongoing event every summer in Germany.....where temperatures up around 35C or more causes this.

3.  There are around 20-odd nuke plants in the EU (of course, zero in Germany) which run off Russian-made fuel elements.  Because of limited production.....they don't have much choice.

Well....a couple of the EU members brought up the idea of a German production site.  SPD-led coalition?  They see this as a negative and are blocking it.  One of the reasons given....they suspect Putin would get angry and target Germany.....if they got into this 'business'.

4.  Focus article this AM.....heat-pump sales now lagging big-time after the big push 2 years ago.  Oddly, oil heating systems are now surging.

5.  New toll regulation falling into play in Germany.  Up until today.....trucks of the 3.5-ton type.....didn't have to pay toll for the autobahns.  Now they do.   

6.  Shoplifting is trending upwards in Germany at present.  WELT piece says organized gangs now heavily involved in the operation.

7.  Statistics now show 300,000 Germans (on average) pack up and leave Germany.  Cost of living is usually given for this exit trend.

8.  Some chatter going on that the 49-Euro Deutschland monthly railway/bus ticket may be dissolved this fall.  Reason?  Significant amount of money that states have to pump in....to cover the real cost of the ticket.  What they don't want to admit is that a true cost ticket....should be closer to 75-to-85 Euro per month.  

How To Read The France Situation

7 July is the second election (on a Sunday).  If the National Rally Party (right-wing) passes the 289 seat situation....there is a general rule (not ironclad) that the President is supposed to call the party 'boss' and form a new cabinet.  

There is a way around this....citing law and order, and form a non-political cabinet...meaning that National Rally is denied ownership of the government (yeah....some people would call it a coup d'Etat).

I've probably read four accounts today (by both French and British journalists)....saying it would be getting near a civil war situation.

There is some belief that Macron's party (in 3rd place today)...might remove candidates from various districts, and help the liberal left wear over National Rally....but this would Macron's party fairly unpopular (being told this strategy) and later having to work on left-strategies.

Odds of this law and order strategy being implemented....even the National Rally party gets the 289 or more seats?  I'd say it'd just invite a fairly negative view by the public....with demonstrations being a weekly thing.

Why any of this matters?  The National Rally folks say they are going to kick out problem-migrants.  How many this might add up to?  Unknown.  In public chatter....they say if you are a foreigner in the country with a criminal record....there's no turning back....you will leave. I would take a wild guess that it amounts to 100,000 or more....if they get serious.

Where would the problem migrants end up?  Well....some wonder if they'd just walk across the border into Spain or Germany, for the time being.  Yeah, it'd trigger various EU issues, and I would imagine the German response would end up being early elections here in Germany.  

Conclusion of this Kaiserslautern Train Station Stabbing Story?

 Well....the police in town have finally written the full basic story.

Having been in the K-town station probably 300 times in my life and walked through the 'tunnel' in question....it's a simple story.

I'll say for the record.....it's a fairly small station....maybe four platforms, and the tunnel connects all of them.  

If you back 30 to 50 years....it was a minor thing where stupid old guys (usually 50 or older) would slap a woman's butt or do a groping on some German female.

This 64-year old German guy (no one says if on his way home or just 'browsing')....decided on some female....he'd grope her.

Well....this happened to be a German female with a switchblade knife and she confronted the guy.  She meant business....he attempted to back out of the situation....she moved forward, and the knife went in.  He died between the station and the hospital.

Nothing involving some radicalization.....inability to integrate, or some some failed love-affair.  Just a old guy who probably groped over a hundred women in his life, and he finally picked the wrong one to mess with.

German prosecutor in this?  Manslaughter charge...criminal code says a max of five years.  If this had been intentional (like they knew each other).....you could go for a 2nd degree murder deal.  But zero proof that they'd ever met before this day.

It's just a remarkable thing.....some young gal with a knife and a pressure-cooker mentality....easily to react to anything, and reacting quickly.    

How the Ukraine-Russia War Will End?

 You can more or less....script the ending now.

As the US election concludes in November....President Trump arrives around 10 weeks later.  All deals on the table for the Ukraine in terms of money and weapons?  I would suggest that some warning will be given within 7 days of Trump's arrival, and the 100-day clock starts ticking.

Trump will put intense pressure upon China, Iran and India.  No deals with Russia.  

As for Putin getting any real plus-up?  They might get some territory out of eastern Ukraine....totally destroyed by two-plus years of war, and no willing nature to fix anything or repairing the damage.  It'll be Russian territory.....with almost no population existing there.

Anger by the EU by this strategy?  By this point, with three years of sponsoring the Ukraine, and flipping billions of Euro their way....I suspect the bulk of voters will have hit maximum capacity to support the war.  The politicians might hint of anger but there's nothing to be gained by extending the war out..

So quietly....probably around early spring of 2025....this war will end. 

Putin's Russia?  Probably half-a-million men lost, and another one to two million men who walked out of Russia.  Economical outlook? Crap...for at least a decade and privately....most Russians angry about the true cost.   A whole generation of young Russian males....dissolved away.

A topic not to be discussed?  Yeah.....you can't talk over the end because it's so firmly attached to having Trump play his role.....making economics the threat tool, rather than military strength.   

Weed Problem

 Just a odd development over legalization of Cannabis in Germany.  The fed folks....as they designed legalization.....they handed the whole idea of management over to cities (not states).

Well...as we've entered the initial legalization phase...the cities have come to grasp there's a lot of paperwork they have to prepare, without the manpower for the job.

So there's push-back going on....the cities demanding more money for additional manpower.  I noticed regionally....there's talk of a necessity of a audit-guy in each city....to go inspect the cannabis-clubs and if they are obeying the law.

What'll likely happen?  I would imagine some allotment of funds will occur, and each city will end up hiring a minimum of four folks (one 'boss' among them) to monitor the program.  Where the funds will come from?  Probably a tax of some type.

2 June 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  It's just awful rare that a Bundestag member switches political parties.  Apparently, it happened yesterday....Green Party member flipped to the CDU Party (right-of-center).  Not a lot of details provided over logic, but the lady says she has serious disagreement with the Green Party economic policy.   

2.  Marcus Keupp (military economist) gave an interview to FAZ (Frankfurt paper).  Interesting perception....he says that Putin has maxed out on production  of military hardware.  There are a number of other military experts who disagree on this idea. 

I might agree with tanks and APCs being in short supply....they won't be able to easily replace those.

3.   I essayed two days ago over another knife assault (this one in the train station of Kaiserslautern).  Dead guy....64 years old.  Attack conducted by a 20-year-old female.

So what the cops now say?  They did not know each other....simply passing in the underground tunnel of the station.  Old guy apparently slapped the butt of the young lady.  She in return reacts and gives him  'hell'.....situation escalates, and she pulls  out a folding-blade knife, and he ends up getting stabbed.  

Manslaughter will be the charge.  

Just a wild story, but demonstrates another case where carrying a knife around could get you into deep trouble.

In a 2nd knife incident....a woman threatened a teacher in Höhr-Grenzhausen (Pfalz region) on Monday. Mother of some student, and had a serious disagreement with the teacher.   Threat with a kitchen knife.  No injuries in this case.  Woman walked away....cops searching for her.  

4.  French reaction to the 1st legislative election?  There's a 2nd round to occur, and some people are suggesting that Macron's party (one of the three running) should identify various seats they won't run for....thus giving the 2nd  place  party (left-wing) a chance to win superior numbers of Le Pen party.  Just suggesting this....is irking Macron Party folks.

5. CDU Party meeting.....odd topic came with the executive group.  They are now preparing for an early election....thinking the schedule fall 2025 election will be pushed forward. 

6.  German Army conducting a massive purchase of new trucks  from Rheinmetall (3.5 billion Euro contract).  6,500 vehicles in the order.

1 July 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  Another knife attack.  From the basic story told this AM....there on Sunday evening in Lauf an der Pegnitz (Nuremberg area)....police got called.

34-year old Iranian guy....got into a crazy sort of way at the train station of the town.  Cops tried to settle the guy down....he refused...rushing them with a knife.  They shot the guy dead.

2.  French 1st round of legislative election results?  Macrons party in 3rd place....barely 20-percent.  Le Pen Party won with 34-percent .

3.   Based on some type of perceived threat....US bases in Germany have gone to Threatcon Charlie....meaning a fair amount of security has been added. Who represents the threat?  Unknown so far.

4.  Odd Euro Cup soccer event.  Lamine Yamal, at 16, plays for the Spanish team, and actually is a starter.  I've watched the kid play, and he's as good as any player on the German team.

Koln city government has received a complaint.....it appears that the kid (age 16) falls under Germany's youth protection law.  Meaning?  He can't 'work' after 11 PM.  There's talk of fining the team.

Spanish law?  Well...between 16 and 18.....you are supposed to have a note from your parents.   There's also a law about a max of 30 hours a week of 'work'.  

This being some kind of strategy because the German team expects to play Spain shortly?  Well....yeah, that might be true.