7 July is the second election (on a Sunday). If the National Rally Party (right-wing) passes the 289 seat situation....there is a general rule (not ironclad) that the President is supposed to call the party 'boss' and form a new cabinet.
There is a way around this....citing law and order, and form a non-political cabinet...meaning that National Rally is denied ownership of the government (yeah....some people would call it a coup d'Etat).
I've probably read four accounts today (by both French and British journalists)....saying it would be getting near a civil war situation.
There is some belief that Macron's party (in 3rd place today)...might remove candidates from various districts, and help the liberal left wear over National Rally....but this would Macron's party fairly unpopular (being told this strategy) and later having to work on left-strategies.
Odds of this law and order strategy being implemented....even the National Rally party gets the 289 or more seats? I'd say it'd just invite a fairly negative view by the public....with demonstrations being a weekly thing.
Why any of this matters? The National Rally folks say they are going to kick out problem-migrants. How many this might add up to? Unknown. In public chatter....they say if you are a foreigner in the country with a criminal record....there's no turning back....you will leave. I would take a wild guess that it amounts to 100,000 or more....if they get serious.
Where would the problem migrants end up? Well....some wonder if they'd just walk across the border into Spain or Germany, for the time being. Yeah, it'd trigger various EU issues, and I would imagine the German response would end up being early elections here in Germany.
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