The Unsure Identity Essay

One of the more clever German ministers in Berlin.....Thomas de Maizière....the interior minister....made a remarkable comment today:

" Despite economic prosperity, Germans don't know who they are and what it represents.  Although we are doing economically well as rarely seen before......we are ourselves unsure about our identity.  We no longer know exactly who we are and who we want to be. What makes us as a German."

It is one of those million-Euro quotes because you have to sit back....sip some coffee and really think about the implications of what he is suggesting.

What exactly makes a German.....a German?

Germans are clever.....driven toward thinking beyond the next step....continually striving toward a process of improvement or solving problems.....and always pushing creativity toward the next level.

Germans understand the concept of mercy, and balance their laws in various ways to give society a constant feeling of fairness.

Germans are good stewards.  It's not just the environment but the infrastructure that exists.....the schools and universities built over the decades and centuries....and social support systems that help the lesser in society.

Germans have a rich history in innovation.  If you look at foods: the gummy bear, the Bratwurst, Buamkucken, and the Stollen are all great examples.  Talking about chemistry?  They invented the Petri dish, the Bunsen Burner, and Polycarbonate.  Talking about computers?  They invented the MP3 format, and the Binary number system.  Cruise missiles and the machine-gun were invented by the Germans.  Plank's Law was written by Max Plank.

Germans were standing there when the Romans headed north, and patiently put up with the rules of Rome.  Between troubles with the Catholic Church, and regional conflict.....a land emerged out of the 1800s with districts, city-states, empires, and kingdoms coming together under the Prussian umbrella.  Through the incompetence of Kaiser Wilhelm II and the Austrian-turned-German corporal....Germany has put up with some very high ups and low downs.  It's been rebuilt a dozen times over.

If you asked ten Germans what makes them a German....most will look at you and just say their "pass" (ID) or their birth in the country.  They can't explain why a German is really a German.  Nor can they get this remarkable feature about German culture and society across to someone who just arrived and intends to pretend their way into being German.

I'm not even sure that Merkel herself could say in two-hundred words or less what it takes to make a German.....a German.

Yes, quiet a problem....a national identity that ought to be worth a 10,000 page novel, and you can't really lay the blunt nature of this culture or society down to it's own citizens.  It is a remarkable problem.

The Wahlometer Story

It's a bit of a humorous piece but fairly serious in political nature.

The wiz kids of the political world in Germany decided in 2002 to develop this on-line question system which would help an "idiot" decide who to vote for.....based strictly on the platforms of the various parties.

If you were pro-marijuana, pro-immigration, anti-taxation.....then the questions would lead you to the right party to vote for.

In theory, it's probably the best way to consider how to vote.  It doesn't mean that marijuana legislation will get passed or the immigration issue will get resolved.....but you gave your vote to the crowd with the best odds of making you happy.

So, in most all elections....not just federal, but also state-level....in Germany.....the Wahl-O-Mat is the tool that helps you decide who to vote for.

Well....in this election in Mecklenburg for this upcoming weekend....it's an odd thing.

The SPD and CDU met months ago (they won't admit this in public that it was a joint meeting) but they decided that they would refuse to participate or help the Wahl-O-Mat people form the 20-odd question format on platform issues.  Zero participation.   So, there is NO Wahl-O-Mat for Mecklenburg's election.  You can ask journalists about this and they just grin.  The thinking is that if you don't help on this issue.....then you don't give any votes to AfD.  It's that silly but they are absolutely serious.

So.....some smart geeks working for AfD went to work.  They built their own ap......their own platform on the issues.  It's called a Wahlometer.  Yeah.....it's different from the Wahl-O-Mat.

What people say....upon entering the question base....is that the Wahlometer uses a particular wording on all issues.  Journalists will suggest that if you aren't competent to realize this wording.....the program can only lead you to one single party in the end.....of course....the AfD.  You could probably have a CDU-dedicated guy do this ten times, and each time.....he will be told the best choice is the AfD.

Course, the SPD and CDU could have prevented this by participating in the normal Wahl-O-Mat process and showed they were fairly open in the whole process.

What will happen to the Wahlometer after this Sunday?  I suspect that the AfD will continue to use it and push it via social media across to other state elections as well.  Whatever rational thoughts that the SPD or CDU had on controlling this question-to-platform idea.....they didn't really consider all the implications.

Changing the vote for November 2017's national election?  Let's say that enough naive people exist in Germany and that they could be led to use the Wahlometer instead of the legit Wahl-O-Mat......I'm guessing that it might shift one-percent of the votes to the AfD that they might not have gotten.  One-percent?  It's not a big deal but it's taking that one-percent away from some other party.

So, when you hear about the Wahlometer, remember that it's a creation by the AfD.

Saarland: 2017 Election View

There are three state elections in Germany in 2017.  One of the states involved....is Saarland.

The expected date for the election around the end of Feb or beginning of Mar, 2017.

Last election:

The SPD carried almost 30-percent of the vote.....while the CDU Party won with 35-percent.  The far-left Linke Party took 16-percent, while the Pirate Party took 7.4-percent, and the Greens took 5-percent.  The AfD?  They weren't active in Saarland politics in 2012 when the last state election occurred.

Likely outcome this time?  We have seven months until the election and no real polling data on what might occur in the Saarland.  Last time around, there were 481,000 votes in the election.

My best guess is that both CDU and SPD will lose around 12 points from their 2012 election, and the Linke Party might see two or three points lost  as well.  The AfD Party might be able to take near 15-percent in the state.  If the AfD were to go past the 20-percent point, it would cause some significant worry for the CDU and SPD nationally.

The Pirate Party is currently in a rebuilding stage nationally, and this election in Berlin will help or hinder the Pirate Party numbers in the Saarland.  If the Linke Party were to take less than half the votes that they did in 2012.....it would cause a lot of worry about the national trend for them and unsettle their handcuffed stance on the immigration situation.

If you were looking for indicators of where the fall national election might go.....this might be an interesting election to watch.

The Safe Story

There's a stupid story which started up over the weekend in the US business news over Germans.  The story is hyped.....Germans dumping banks, buying safes for their homes.

What the original reporter got....I think....is some report that indicates an increase in home safes being sold and he assumes that folks are quitting bank accounts.....to keep their cash at home.  Oddly, the story comes out of the Wall Street Journal.

Well.....it's a false story.

Over the past decade, if you travel around Europe (or Australia for that matter)....if you stay in a four-star hotel.....there's a safe in the room.  I admit....it's not the kind of safe that Americans imagine, but it's big enough to put a shoe-box into.  It's usually bolted into the closet and runs off a battery device where you put in a four-to-six number sequence (off a telephone-like pad) and it's fire-durable.  Germans travel and see it constantly.

So the hardware shops in Germany have started to market and sell these.  A typical cheapo-type would run around 100-to-150 Euro.  A better choice would be in the 300-to-400 Euro range.  All of them are about the same size....,maybe one to two shoe-boxes fitting into it.

What does the German put into it?

1.  Because of increased break-in's.....jewelry collections and expensive watches are usually kept there.....bolted into the floor or into the wall.  The punk might find the safe but if he's got just ten minutes in the place to feel safe about robbing it.....he doesn't have the time or resources to waste on the safe.

2.  Coin collections?  You do find a fair number of Germans who either have small coin collections or collect on gold.  So it makes sense to keep in a safe.

3.  Some cash.  I'm not saying the average guy is stowing cash there....just the guy who deals in cash a good bit and maybe does work on the "black".  Hint: there are lots of plumbers and carpenters who do work for cash, and at the end of a year.....have 50,000 Euro in their hands that is unreported income.  Rather than deposit the money, which would get the bank/tax folks attention.....you store the "loot" at home and spend the money out of the safe.

For the price-range, it's affordable now.  Not like the 1980s where you had to spend a huge amount of money to get a regular sized safe.

Quitting bank accounts?  No.   I do agree.....the price hikes now on regular accounts have made Germans peppy and frustrated.  Most banks now require you maintain a certain amount of money in the account....like 1,500 or 2,000 Euro.  Some require you maintain a savings account connected to the checking account and at least a couple thousand Euro in it.....to avoid the monthly fees.  The banks with the regular fee business?  Probably double or triple what it was a decade ago.

But here's the thing.....for you paycheck, your pension check, and for regular bill-paying....you absolutely have to maintain a bank account.  You can go line up a hundred Germans, and I would take a guess that 98-percent of them have an account somewhere.  Even homeless guys will have an ATM card and get their welfare or pension money out via some bank.

So, yeah.....it's mostly a bogus story.  The safe trend will continue and even I.....eventually.....will probably get a safe as well (if the wife deems this as necessary).  So don't worry.....German banks are safe and still have a thriving business.....as do the safe guys.

A Bit of Warning Might Have Helped

In the early spring of 1977....when I was getting to the point of seriously thinking of joining the Air Force....the recruiter had this 15-minute video to orientate and ensure that I understood what boot-camp was all about.  It was an honest portrayal of the six week episode and what I should expect.  It kinda spelled out that you wouldn't have much free time.....there's no alcohol....hot meals were the norm.....it would be kinda hot there in Texas....and you were expected to participate.

I've come to the opinion that Germany should have had an orientation type program/video.....back in 2014 and ensured that folks coming up for immigration, asylum or migrant status.....knew what they were getting themselves into.

For example, if you explained what the cost of living was for the average German, and what the wage typically equaled.....I think forty-percent of folks who were thinking about walking into Germany would reconsider their action.

For example, if you explained the taxation business and how near half of what you were making for an income.....was going toward income tax, health insurance or pension tax.....I think forty-percent of folks would reconsider their walk into Germany.

For example, if you explained what a car cost, the yearly cost of mandatory insurance, and gasoline cost (with the tax business).....I think twenty-percent of folks would reconsider their walk into Germany.

For example, if you explained the thousand-odd rules of driving and how difficult it is to get a drivers license.....I think twenty-percent of folks would reconsider their walk into Germany.

For example, if you laid out the progressive and liberal side of society that exists in Germany.....I think forty-percent of folks would reconsider their walk into Germany.

For example, if you explained dress and attire of German women....I suspect that forty-percent of folks would reconsider their walk into Germany.

For example, if you showed the refugee compounds and camps as the Germans have established them, and been fair in admitting that some folks might be there for ten months, and STILL not pass the visa test....I suspect that forty-percent of folks would reconsider their walk into Germany.

For example, if you showed general acceptance of marijuana and it was a problem for your conservative lifestyle....I suspect that forty-percent of of folks would reconsider their walk into Germany.

Oh, this probably would have to be a four-hour DVD introduction and it'd lay out the great positives of the Basic Law (Constitution), jobs for people with craftsmanship background or college degrees, and professional police.  But the negatives would have been there and been something that would have made people ask questions.  If you lived your entire life in some Islamic homeland with some tough rules and expectations.....well....it won't be the same in Germany.  A German boss won't have sympathy for you and Ramadan.....so if you dehydrate yourself and can't deliver at the business.....the German boss will let you go.

I'm guessing that at least one out of every three migrants or immigrants who hiked into Germany in 2014 and 2015.....are sitting there now and asking themselves some tough questions.  Maybe they expected more.....maybe they thought it would be easy.....but things probably didn't turn out the way that they thought.  And for some.....it's exactly what they wanted and desired.

The Karl Marx Strasse Story

Late this week in Germany.....Wolfgang Steiger of the CDU Economic Council (the chief guy of the council) got into an interview with a BILD reporter.  He eventually came around to this topic that he declared some support for.  BILD gave him roughly 12 lines of coverage.....which is hype if you think about the typical 10 lines they write on some subjects.

Across Germany, there are approximately 500 to 600 streets named for Karl Marx, who has been dead for about 150 years.

Karl....was mostly a philosopher, economist, and journalist.  It's safe to say that his stability and income in life....came from running a couple of small newspapers that harped mostly on his favorite topic in life.....communism.

In his vision....a bunch of guys could produce work.....get an income of some sort, a roof over their head, and live a decent life.  It's never a complete picture on how you get from A to B to C, but something good would happen in the end.

What the CDU economics guy.....Wolfgang Steiger....suggested in this interview....is that it's time for the national government of Germany to dump all these Karl Marx Streets.

He didn't go into any detail about how this would happen (reminding you somewhat of how Karl built up his reputation).  Woflgang simply says that we don't need this reminder around about Karl Marx, who he more or less.....was deemed a failure.

What would they rename the streets?  Unknown.  Maybe Merkel Strasse.

On the priority list?  Well.....out of the 500 problems confronting Germany today.....I'd rate this around 8,558 on the list.  I'd actually like to ensure every apartment in Germany has a toilet within the apartment.....before renaming some streets.

In an election year?  Well....yeah....we are entering twelve months in Germany of election chaos, where some political folks will say some stupid things....for a headline.

Santa, and German Intellectuals

The debate will rage in Germany over the next couple of weeks as the burqa ban is discussed within political networks, forums and public arenas.

At some point, Santa Claus and his outfit will be brought up by the intellectuals to defend stopping the burqa debate and just accept the outfit as a part of "new" cultures in Germany.

So I've asked myself.....did Santa integrate into Germany?

When did Santa arrive?  Most historians give the date 6 December 342....when Saint Nicolas is said to have died, and some celebration or gift period was established.  The 16th century is given by some people as the period where it was generally accepted across Europe.

Santa and integration?  Santa learned German.  No one ever tested the guy.....but he's probably way above the 2,1 level required by the German visa folks.

Orientation and knowledge of the Basic Law (German constitution)?  Santa wasn't tested on this but I'm pretty sure that he knows all of this to some level.  He also knows who has been naughty and nice.

Santa and fake passports?  As far as I know.....Santa has never been tasked to show a passport.  The customs people may swear that he's cross the Austrian border into Germany on hundreds of occasions but so far.....no one has thought to ask and make him show some passport.

Santa and weapons?  As far as I know.....no knives, no rifles, no explosives, or such.  He has been seen with a fairly large stick, which no one can explain it's usage other than for whacking reindeer or perhaps bad elves.

Santa and threats?  So far....other than skipping some bad kids.....no one can establish that Santa has ever threatened anyone.

The use of the beard and outfit as a disguise?  No....it's just regular North Pole attire.  It's kinda like fashion outlets in Poland in the 1980s....you wore what they sold even if it were way out of style.  My take is that there just aren't many C+A clothing shops there in the North Pole.

The necessity of intellectual to use the Santa argument to defend the burqa?  Lets be honest on two parts to this question.  First, when an intellectual has to use an imaginary character to build his argument.....he's stepped a full-step off a cliff (if you know what I mean).  Second, Santa has never been busted on the nose, jaw, or eye by some family acquaintance and used his beard or outfit to hide his injury.  Santa doesn't limit his character or his friendships, or hide his robust figure from public view.  And Santa doesn't seem to defend a 7th century behavior in his 'visits' or seem to harm anyone.

I hate to suggest that the intellectuals have locked onto a bad argument, but if you asked me.....dragging Santa into the burqa discussion is pretty amusing.

My 10 Bits of Advice on German Language Classes

After a number of classes over the years.....I can say that I've seen just about everything, and like Mark Twain....I'm at a loss to explain to anyone how the German language works but I can explain how the classes end up.  This is advice not only for Americans and Brits.....but for refugees as well.

1.  When the "professor" comes around with the sign-in log for each day....USE only Blue or black ink.  If you pull out some red or green ink pen.....that German professor will freak out and go crazy.  Trust me.....it's pretty serious over blue or black ink (don't ask me why).

2.  When they say this is an 'intensive' course....it means that over five weeks....roughly four hours a day....four to five days a week.....they've got a class, and it's designed as a college-level type course.  If you think you can miss three or four days out of that five week period, and still pass the test.....dream on, it won't happen.  They cover too much material each day for you to miss more than maybe two days (hopefully not consecutively).  If you were out for the day, you'd best find someone who takes good notes, and spend an hour with them on what you missed.  At the end of that episode (1.1 for example), you will be tested.  You don't go to 1.2 unless you pass that stupid test.

3.  The book.  No matter where you go.....they go and select a book from some publisher that is designed for a know-nothing-student.  Back in 1985 when I took the German class.....it was a 1970's style book and worthless.  Over the past three years.....the books I've seen....are all light-years ahead and worth the nine-to-twelve Euro cost.

4.  The instructors.  There are basically three types of instructors.  There's the actor or comedian type, who is very animated and getting everyone peppy into the rhyme of learning Germany.  Their focus is making German "FUN".  Then instructor two is the die-hard.....very-serious....dynamic instructor who will drill the language over and over into you.  Then the third instructor type is the 3-minute topic instructor who knows precisely how to teach you one simple thing, and it's built into a three-minute lesson.....which you easily pick up that single topic, and then move on.  Each has an advantage or disadvantage in the way they teach.

5.  The classrooms.  I've seen some classrooms over the past three years that were modern and up-to-date.....technology, etc.  And there's some which were left-overs from the 1980s.  None of them had AC, and on extra hot days.....you were fairly hot and miserable by noon.

6.  Cost?  If you use the social office deal....it's free but you can't fail a single class.  If you are a capitalist.....you will pay roughly 300 Euro for each single five-week class.  Twenty years ago....it would have been a quarter of that cost.....things have risen greatly over the last two decades.

7.  Characters you bump into and their ability.  I sat in a class once that had almost all immigrants and refugees, with four of us who had college or such in our past out of the twenty students. That class was locked into first-gear and had child-like behavior that went on from day one.  I often refer  to that episode as the "kids class" and quit at the 10th week (15 week course).  I sat in one simple five-week course that had all westerners....majority with a craft or college time....and every day had a great pace.  Some of these language programs will try to pair folks up and get X people into the X-class and Y people into the Y-class.  Don't go expecting that you end up with a good group or bad group....it's just the luck of the thing.

8.  Homework.  When you break for the day....you've got probably 25 minutes of real homework and twenty minutes of stuff to recite or read over.  If you aren't doing the homework and trying to just skip your way through these classes.....don't worry, you won't get past the 5th week or level 1.1.

9.  Anyone who tells you that German is easy......is a nutcase.

10.  Islam.  Typically....in 99.99-percent of the occasions or class-time.....Islam won't come up....even if 80-percent of the class is Islam.  Now, that said.....I've had two occasions where it came up and became a noticeable issue.  In one class....we had some naive but clever instructor who was pro-Islam (German gal who was part of the Evangelical Church and a instructor).  She wanted everyone to know she was pro-Islam and thought it was a really keen religious group.....oddly, we only had two Muslims in the whole room out of 20 students.  Around the 10th time that she spoke up about this....I started to shake my head....she had some kind of issue.  It's best not to tell off a German that their behavior is questionable.....so my advice is to just keep quiet.

The second episode was a class which ran during Ramadan.  Along about 10AM, an hour into class, you'd notice dehydration setting in for a dozen of the people in the room.  They couldn't focus well and were having concentration issues.  By 11AM, it was worthless for the instructor to involve them in any class participation.  They were basically zombies and working on heat exhaustion or heat stroke.  Ramadan runs for four weeks.  It's safe to say that this four week period for that particular class.....made it utterly worthless and brought me up to speed on the reliability of Muslims in classrooms or at the work-place.  About the only thing I would advise is that you need to keep the number for the ambulance folks nearby and quickly call an ambulance if they fall over from dehydration.

Where All This Ban-the-Burqa Talk Will Go

For three weeks in Germany, there's been talk of banning the burqa.  It gets some traction, but this week.....there was push-back.

The intellectual argument against the ban is that once you write this script for the law.....it'll also affect anyone who wears a mask, period......to include Santa Claus characters.

I noticed a public-run TV poll done on German perception of the possible ban.  Eighty-one percent of German society are against the burqa facial covering.  That means at best....only 19-percent support the burqa and allowing the covering to stand in place.

Presently, I'd say it's a zero percent chance that ban will be passed by this Bundestag group.

But as the intellectuals continue this fight, you come to realize that it's helping to trigger one end-result.

The longer that this ban-the-burqa discussion goes on and the Bundestag avoids passing it.....it gives the alternate party (the AfD folks) a five-star discussion item.

As much as the opposition parties think they are doing the ethical and right thing.....it's increasing the amount of frustration across the general public in Germany.....helping attract voters to the AfD.  It's not really about this election in 2017 that the general politicians should worry about....it's 2021's election that people should be viewing.

As each argument occurs over the ban, and the political parties waste time pretending to discuss the matter and then put it down....it just moves the frustration level of the public up one notch.  When people start to worry in 2018 and 2019 that one-third of German society identifies with AfD by that point, the question will be.....what did we do wrong?  At that point, there is no ability to reverse or fix perceptions.

As much as one sees logic in avoiding radical law changes in Germany.....it's a difficult road ahead.

The Bar-B-Q Story

I sat last night and watched an episode of MEX on the regional state-run network of HR (our Hessen network).  MEX is a show that picks up economic and business related stories.  One of the short three-minute pieces from last night was over illegal bar-b-q efforts at Hessen city parks.

For those who haven't been around Hessen.....we have a lot of city parks.

We also have a pretty hardcore rule about NO bar-b-q's unless it's in a designated area.  So, it's safe to say.....there just aren't many people out bar-b-q'ing.....unless they are doing it in an illegal fashion.

So, the cops got called out.....several families of an immigrant type in a city park.  Two cops show up at first and tell the dozen-odd folks to put out the fires.  No response....defensive in nature.

Those two cops then have to call two back-up units....so there's now six cops in this park (one is a supervisor) and there's some names taken down and forceful language about putting the fires out.

Most Germans don't want any confrontations with cops.....you pick this up after a while.  The less you have to deal with the cops....the better off you are.  It's a logical thing.

In this case, this crowd simply weren't going to listen to the cops and just pretend that they weren't ordered to cease the bar-b-q.  Signs up?  Oh yeah.  There's never a lack of these signs to let people know about this.

This is one of the odd differences between the Germans and their new "guests".....in the old homeland....cops were regarded as losers.  Here, it's a matter of law and respect.  If the Germans made up a law.....99.99-percent of all Germans obey that law, no matter how stupid it is.

The episode demonstrated the reasoning behind adding more cops because you have to show up in force to make people take notice and obey the law.....something that wasn't required twenty years ago.

Germany and Atheism

If you go and dig up the statistical information on atheism in Europe.....Germany is in the top ten.  The EU average (by Wiki) is 20-percent of each nation is atheist in nature.  The lowest is Romania with one-percent, and the highest is France with forty-percent.  Germany?  It rests there with around 27-percent of the nation as atheists.

A true picture of Germany?

This starts an odd topic.  Rarely are individual state or regional polls done like this.  What German journalists say is that most atheists that exist in Germany....reside in the eastern side of the country.  The logical end-discussion point is that the old DDR mentality, with Soviet influence, helped to create this large core of atheists in the region.

When you sit down and look at other numbers though....it's hard to buy this simple explanation.  For example....other Soviet satellites from the old Cold War period (Romania, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary) have a much lesser number of atheists.  Adding fuel to the discussion is that fact of France having the 40-percent.  Oddly, even Germans will note that in the Hamburg region, it's a very large group of atheists.

So, I come to three suggestions to explain this....most having to do with history.

1.  The Hanseatic League started up along the German north coast and extended into the Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark in the 1300s.  It was a trade and craftsman group, which had a fair amount of hatred of the Catholic Church.  Their leadership authority and legal system took an extremely harsh view of Church politics in the region and helped to funnel a lot of people toward atheism.  That independent view still resides today along the coastal region of Europe.

2.  The Thirty Years War and the Saint Bartholomew's Day massacre in France....both fueled a discontent with the Catholic Church and opened up the door in central Europe for the atheist view.

3.  Finally, you come to a large concentration prior to the 1930s of German university operations in the eastern side of the nation.  I would suggest that the thought process of questioning things through these universities.....some of which existed from the 1400s on....added more emphasis to questioning religion of all types.

Why I bring this all up?  With immigration growing as a topic in Germany, and thousands upon thousands of Muslim enthusiasts showing up in Germany....eventually, you'd think that one of them would ask if there was a problem in losing your religion in Germany.

Statistics say yes....and if you live in the eastern side of the country or in Hamburg....it's a pretty big chance that will happen.

This is the same crowd to note that not only is there freedom of religion existing in Germany, but freedom from religion as well.

It would be curious to see some statistical data and if the current trend is Islamic growth mostly in the western states of Germany, and to ask why that's the case.....but I doubt if German journalists really want to open that line of questioning.

What a Bundestag Member Makes on Retirement

This came up today in some German article....over what members of the Berlin Bundestag make for a pension.

So, the deal starts on year one....with 2.5 percent of your "allowance and pay".

If you work ten years....you've got 25-percent of your "allowance and pay".

If you are a senior ranking member after ten years.....you likely make around 14,000 Euro a month or 168,000 Euro a year.  If you reached retirement age at that point.....you'd collect roughly  42,000 Euro a year.

The max you can collect?  67.5 percent of your pay and allowances.

Note, the 14,000 a month covers your living cost in Berlin as well.....you could expect most everyone to be paying in the range of 3,000 Euro a month for a upscale and spacious 2-bedroom apartment.

Fairly decent retirement program but very comparable to the US side as well.  

Spies in Germany?

Last week, some story came out with BND labels all over it.....that the Turkish government has various spies within Germany.  Naturally, this upset the Linke and Green political parties to some degree.  They want the government to provide the big picture and explain what the heck is going on.

Historically.....even going back to the 1800s....Germans have continually believed they were being spied upon....even when there were few if any spies within the country.  At some point in the first year of the World War One.....just about anyone with an accent got beat up severely and accused of being a spy....even if they were Germans from another part of the country with a funny accent.

When I arrived in 1983....part of the security orientation for Air Force people was that there were all kinds of Stassi (East German) and KGB (Soviet) spies around.....even in Kaiserslautern.

Every few months, some West German would be arrested and accused as a spy of some sorts.

After the Wall came down, there were tons of files to indicate all kinds of characters were providing data to the East German and Soviet governments.

Today?  You would think that there were almost no spies in Germany.....but if you start talking about economic or technology-related spies.....then folks kinda admit that there are hundreds of spies around the country.

These Turkish spies?  What is said is that they spy mostly on the Kurdish community of Germany, and report back to Turkey.  Numbers?  No one ever goes into details.....my guess is that we are talking about a hundred such characters in Germany who report to Turkey.

Is this valuable information on the Kurds in Germany?  I doubt it.  Some idiot in the Turkish government thinks its necessary and is willing to front money to make it happen.  There's probably five or six 'chiefs' sitting in Turkey who get the daily report and try to make a "mountain out of a mole-hole" which then gets passed up the chain to someone else who tries to make a "glacier out of snow-free mountain".  By the end, Erdogan is standing there and all perturbed over what was said by two retired Kurds at some Mainz coffee shop which got all twisted around by various idiots in the middle.

But here's the other side of this episode.  Toss in the Russians, the Chinese, the North Koreans, the Americans, the Brits, the Google guys, the Facebook guys, the GM folks, the Pabst Blue Ribbon spies, and the Canadian TV management spies.....and there's probably something like 6,000 spies at work in Germany on a daily basis.  Some work for Fiat.....some work for NSA....some work for Delta Airlines.....and some probably even work for New York Times.

Last year, while sitting around Wiesbaden one afternoon.....I sat and observed a Chinese couple (you can spot a Chinese tourist from 500 feet by the character of their clothing....they dress like the 1980s). The couple had stopped in a highly landscaped area (Wiesbaden has dozens of impressive areas).  They were standing there and pointing things out.....then whipped out a camera.  My guess is that they were landscapers in China....on a tour to pick up new ideas and designs.....thus spying on Germans and their landscaping efforts.  Not full-scale spies....but still spying in some fashion.

On any given day, there's probably 6,000 spies of some type busy in Germany and spying on someone or something.....my humble guess.  There are probably even 500 Germans who are spying on other Germans.

My German Frau is probably even suspecting that I'm spying on Germany, and reporting back on beer tastes and kase kochen (cheese cake) recipes.

But here's the thing.  There must be something to spy on of value.....to have that many idiots just walking around and writing some secret report each day of some value.....which earns them a check.  These Germans must have tons of secret stuff that people want to know about.  In that case, they ought to feel awful proud of the achievements accomplished and people wanting to spy on them.  Well....I'm saying that to make them feel good about the spying business.

Anyway....over and out// (secret report 2016-08-32, Agent Ripley).

Fest Termination

About a decade ago in my little village of 4,000 people.....they made a decision to start up a Christmas Fest.  The idea centered on a Saturday afternoon to evening party atmosphere in the center of the village....where a dozen clubs from the village would set up their tents and sell snacks and beverages.  Entertainment would be provided and everyone would have 'fun'.

On paper, it looked fine.  In practice, this was a fairly screwed up operation.

They'd open up around 3PM on that Saturday.....but the bulk of the crowd wouldn't show up til 6PM.  I suspect mostly because of work or shopping.  I should note, this typically occurred two weekends prior to Xmas.

While the food and beverage side could handle the minor crowd at 3PM, they really weren't equipped to handle the bigger crowd.

Typically by 7PM.....most of the tents were running out of food and drink.  You'd stand there at gluhwine spot and be told that they'd just run out of the hot drink.

By 8PM, everyone was shutting down and hauling their tents away.

This week in the village, they made the decision to halt the Christmas Fest.  The impression I get is that a number of the organizers really didn't have enthusiasm for this anymore, and the general complaints from the crowds led people to ask questions.

The chief problem I think.....is that we are simply a 10-minute bus ride from Wiesbaden, where they've got major operations set-up and will run a four-star Christmas Market until 11PM.

A big loss?  No.  In twenty years, some group will suggest to restart this and we'll go through the same business again.....only to discover that it just doesn't work well at the small village level.

Wiesbaden and No-Go Areas?

Officially, there are no NO-GO areas in Wiesbaden.  You can ask the Lord Mayor, the city council, or the chief of police, and they will grin and say that it's a fairly safe town of 280,000 people.  So, this is my own humble advice on NO-GO areas in town:

1.  In the area behind the train station (looking east), over to Mainzer Strasse and on down to the Pizza Hut area....it would be best to avoid after dark.  There are a number of clubs in this rebuilt area near the railway, and next to a city park.  There's been some violent episodes in this area....robberies, etc.  Daylight hours, it's perfectly safe.

2.  On the east end of Wiesbaden, where Schwalbacher Strasse meets up with Bleich Strasse, there's been some violent confrontations, assaults and robberies after dark.  I would recommend staying out of this area, after dark.

3.  Last week, a couple was walking through Warmer Damm Park area around midnight, and were violently attacked and robbed.  Even though it's supposed to be a fairly safe area.....again, I'd recommend against walking this area after dark.

Some other notes.....Wiesbaden has a regular issue with fake-cops.  These are guys who hang out near the upscale hotels on Wilhelm Strasse and look for stupid tourists.  The routine is always to ask to see your money or billfold or purse.

A dangerous town?  No.  In daylight hours, every inch of the city is absolutely safe.  For some reason, there's been some pattern of violent assault, thug behavior and robbery after dark.....particularly after midnight.

Numbers and the Burqa Discussion in Germany

Over the past week, this topic of the burqa ban in Germany has come up with the public.  There are various groups opposed to this.....based strictly on the right to religious 'garb'.  Some oppose simply because it's the right-wing or conservatives who are pushing this idea.

But you come to this odd thing, which is very noticeable.  No one knows any statistical situation over who wears the full-up facial covering burqa or the shawl, or no burqa.  This is the interesting part of the story.

We know that there are 81,000,000 residents in Germany.  We know that there are between 2.5 and 4 million Turks in Germany (Germany absolutely doesn't qualify in their census count.....who is Turkish and living in Germany, who is Turk-German (dual passport), and who is German with a Turkish heritage (dad or mom was Turkish).  They also don't know out of the 2.5-to-4 million....who is null-zero Islam, half-Islam, or hard-core Islam.

Then you have the Syrians, the Iraqis, Iranians, Lebanese, Afghan, Pakistani, or North African crowd.  The best guess is that there are 1.5 million.  But you don't know if 10-percent if Christian, or 50-percent are hard-core Islam, or whatever.

You'd think that the Germans would want to really know the big picture situation, and the fact is.....they really don't want to know.  On this.....you might ask why, but there is no logical reason other than it's something best left unknown.

So, let's look at the reality of assumptions:

1.  You have to start by asking are there different levels of Islam?  The simple answer is yes.

You've got group "A" which simply says they are Islam but don't practice the faith.....drink booze and beer....hang out with westerners (Germans)....haven't been to a mosque in five to ten years.....smoke some weed, and don't take any part of the religion serious.  I'd take a guess that this definition fits around 40-percent of the folks who claim status as a Muslim.  The burqa ban means nothing to them, and they'd mostly laugh over people who get hyped up.

Then you come to group "B", which is moderate crowd.  The women might wear a shawl or the Hijab or the Chador.  All of this group avoids the facial covering, and simply dress in a conservative style.  I'd take a guess that this group fits for 55-plus percent of the folks who claim a status as a moderate-Muslim.

Then you come to the last group...."C", which is the extreme conservative crowd.  This is the facial covering crowd.  My best guess is that they might on a good day.....max out at 1-percent of the total population of Muslims in Germany.

2.  So do the numbers. We can estimate around 4.5 million that fit into this group,  If you assume that 35-percent are women over eighteen.....so we might be talking about 15,000 to 16,000 total women in this category of requiring a burqa.

Factual or made-up data?  Well....obviously, it must not be important or the Germans would have collected the data.  Why am I picking 1-percent?  Mostly because I've walked around Frankfurt, Wiesbaden and Mainz a fair bit over the last three years and made personal observations.  I do agree....there are more now than five years ago....but there just aren't that many.

3.  The waiver to live in a western society?  Few Germans or westerners have ever sat down and read the Quran or the associated documents.  There's paragraph listed in there.....which few Muslims ever grasp....that are words passed down from the 7th Century that if you have to live in western society and they have a lifestyle or rules that don't fit the Muslim lifestyle......you get a "waiver".  Yeah....if burqas are banned, then there's no big deal....you live by the rules of the country that you moved into.

Is that all to the discussion?  Well....no.  There's this odd development in German tourism over the past decade.  You see....there are plenty of wealthy Islamic families of a conservative nature....who are tourists and fly into Germany to shop and do tourist travel.

 I would take a guess that on a typical week here in Wiesbaden during the summer, there's probably forty to sixty women who are with their husbands or parents, with the facial covering burqa....spending a fair amount of money (probably over 50,000 Euro each in a week).  So, there's some upscale shops and stores, with some VAT money which flows into the government's pocket.  Most of these government officials and upscale shops, along with the upscale hotels.....would prefer not to chase away customers with some "stupid" burqa ban.

It's not a simple task to write the rule to ban the burqa, and it'll be readily challenged (my humble opinion) in court.  But if this all about simply sixteen-odd-thousand women in Germany, then it may not be such a big deal.  But getting the government guys to simply gather statistics and lay the real image out there....is really the bigger issue out of this.

Assimilataphobia?

I was in a public forum this morning and this topic came up for a new word.....assimilataphobia.

It would be defined (it's not a real phobia or a real word....at least not yet) as a person who should be assimilating into some culture or society, but apparently has a irrational fear of assimilating.

In my life, I've come across various Americans who came into Germany.....got all hyped up....and decided to stay.  On the assimilation scale....they were maxing out at '9'  or '10'.

Over the past three years, with immigration and integration in the news, it's hard to avoid the assimilation topic.  Politically, it's charged-up and something that most politicians don't want to engage upon.

The irrational fear of assimilation?  I think this goes to four basic reasons.

1.  There are a fair number of 'guests' in Germany who've never been outside of their home-culture or home-country in their life.  For them, this is a grand trip to Disney-land which doesn't seem to end and mentally....they just aren't prepared for this type of change in life. In some ways, they are locked into shock that they moved.....trekked all the way to Germany.....and still sit there a year later in some denial stage that it happened.

2.  Some individuals are heavily handcuffed to their religion.  Assimilating isn't part of the religious culture that they've observed.  Some of these people are fearful of losing their religion if they assimilate all the way into the new land.

3.  Educational accomplishments of the past for some of these people....have been limited.  They might have finished up basic or primary school....but done little else.  They aren't stupid.....but they haven't been challenged to the learning process or independent thinking.  If they look at the rules, regulations, barriers erected by the Germans.....it's like a mountain that they have to climb and they are unprepared for it.

4.  "Little land syndrome".  If you look at the bulk of migrants and immigrants into Germany....they generally all end up in a highly urbanized area, but in a particular neighborhood which is tied to their culture.  So they hang out with the people from their homeland.....eat the homeland foods.....talk about how things were better in the homeland.....and lessen their enthusiasm to assimilate into Germany.

German attitude over assimilataphobia?  Up until three years ago.....I think the bulk of German were willing to accept this as part of the system.  Today?  Roughly fifty to sixty percent of German society are frustrated and shaking their head over movement into the world of integration.  Some (probably in the range of 15-percent) are willing to vote for the AfD Party.....to send a message to Berlin about the frustration they have.  Some of the political parties are worried about the stability of their political system and where this will lead onto.

Perhaps in a year or two....some journalist will finally wake up and utter the phrase assimilataphobia and it'll suddenly be some catch-phrase of German society.

A Brief Essay on Where Nazi Economics Failed

There are several things that propelled the Nazis in the 1930 period to be considered a primary voting vehicle in the 1930 election.  They would receive 18-percent of the national vote.  The chief driving force in this election?  The depression business that hit the US.....and continued through Europe....arrived on the doorstep of Germany, which was still in fragile condition from the 1919 peace treaty and reparations situation.

Most working-class Germans wanted economical stability, and anyone promising to "fix things" got their attention.

What can be said today....about Adolph Hitler's knowledge and and understanding of economics....probably could be summed up on two 3x5 cards.  Sadly, the guy that the general public was viewing as their economic 'savior'....was simply delivering words....not real policy.

The chief pieces of Nazi economics?

You come down to roughly seven key features which went into effect and were features that they operated with....for the next fifteen years.  The seven;

1.  Autarky or a closed economy.  In simple terms....you produce, grow or build....ONLY for the German economy.  You don't look for outside sources to sell products.  This limits your need for raw materials, but you also limit yourself in various ways to expand out and create more jobs and income.

2.  Nationalization.  Various industries were measured in some form, and some who met the qualifications were pushed into government-ownership.  If you weren't making a profit....the government didn't care because they could shuffle money into the pot to cover wages and cost from tax revenue.  The idea that you were running an incompetent process, or producing a product that people didn't really need....well, that didn't really matter.

3.  Forced wage increases.  Like the US policy of controlling wages via a government vehicle, the Nazis did the same thing.  For this period, wages went up by approximately 10-percent.....making people happy.  Explaining how the wage increase met or failed to meet reality....didn't matter.

4.  The four chief banks at this time, the Commerzbank, the Deutsche Bank, the Disconto-Gesellschaft, Golddiskontbank and Dresdner Bank.....were in effect nationalized and were mostly used for government expenditure points instead of legitimate banks.  They loaned money at set rates and if the government was late in paying the money back or dragged out the pay-back process....well....it didn't matter.

5.  Trade unions ceased to exist.  Instead, you got something called the German Labor Front.  You didn't call for strikes, demand wage increases or do anything to aggravate the German government.  If the Front said you deserved a wage increase.....you got it.

6.  A couple of years into the Nazi economic policy....came military hardware spending.  It did put people to work and demonstrated jobs-growth.  The problem was that they didn't have the money to continue this growth program at the scale they demanded.  In essence, they were spending tons of money at a fast pace, without consideration of the fragile nature of the economy.

7.  By the late 1930s, and as various military campaigns started up.....German shifted to free-labor....using the labor camps where prisoners were held.  In some ways, it kept the economic success of Germany looking good but it was a false reality.  By 1942, you can pretty much say that the economy was a failure and would collapse in the near future.

Most historians will agree that there were already signs in the mid-1930s that the Nazi economic program was a failure.  Because of the way that the four chief banks were being used.....you couldn't really gauge the true nature of a stalled economy.  But even at this point, there were still another entire decade of screwed-up economics to continue.

The start of this whole trend?  You can go back to the May 1928 election in Germany.....where the Nazis really weren't a player (2.6-percent of the vote).  The winner of this election?  The SPD Party.  But to run the coalition.....they basically had to settle up with three partners and were creating a marginally ineffective government which could not be expected to do much in a crisis.  Well....roughly 18 months later came the crisis which they could not handle.

Public trust was lost, and grand speeches by Hitler and the Nazi Party sold the public on a solution which looked good on paper but in reality....just wasn't the way to fix this.

Without the US Wall Street episode and collapse?  This is one of those speculative things.  Without the 1929 collapse, and world-wide depression.....there's no need for the early election in Germany in 1930, and there's nothing to pull the Nazi Party to the top of public attention in the 1930 or 1932 election.

Just one of those oddball things about German history, and why this 1920s era matters a great deal.....but we rarely ever chat about it.

Documentary Piece on Turkish Tourism

Last night (Friday), I sat and watched German 3SAT.....a public-run network, which featured a rather new documentary piece entitled "Turkey Without Tourists".  The network has the 45-minute clip up over at their site and you can view it there as well.

The German reporter spent several weeks in Turkey back in the spring and up through June.  The story is a fairly woeful tale of how a significant amount of Turkish jobs are related to the tourist industry, and it's in a fairly tough position because of terrorist acts, and the recent Erdogan actions.

At beach after beach.....there were video shots taken which should feature hundreds of German and various Europeans laying out on a five-star beach....but as the German crew filmed the spot....it was virtually empty.  No ice cream being bought.....no beer being consumed.....nothing.

They went to various hotels which in May and June.....should have had significant numbers of tourists showing up and spending a week.....two weeks....even three weeks.  Hotels that should have had most of their 300 rooms rented....were doing it with maybe a quarter of the normal expected business.

They spent time with various small business owners and hotel bosses.....who were all fairly negative about the experience.  Up until 2015, they had a fairly robust business and the terror acts committed changed the perception of Turkey being safe.  Toss in the refugee business from Syria, and the events since the coup.....it's mostly a place where tourists don't feel safe or secure.

What will happen now?  2016's tourist season is washed out completely, with zero possibility that things will return to a norm.  Most hotels along the southern coast would run a winter season, with some expectations.....but in this crisis period.....I doubt if lowering the prices would bring anyone back.

Currently, you can probably rig up a two week tour at a five-star resort in October (airfare included, all meals, all drinks) for around 450 Euro.  My guess is that they will dump to the price to 300....maybe even 250....but it won't matter.

Can they survive a repeat of this in 2017?  No, probably not.

What I think will happen by May of 2017 in Turkey is that most resorts and tourist operations will make the decision not to open.  It'll surprise me if more than a quarter of the operations are active in 2017, with hundreds of thousands of Turks out of work.  The government?  It would be a question mark over how they can influence and charm the out-of-work folks.  Eventually, I think by mid-summer of 2017....you might see several hundred thousand Turkish men who would pack and leave the country...probably for Europe....seeking work.

Was this a part of the Erdogan strategy?  Hard to say.  But if they ran any election in 2017.....it might be hard to find a pro-Erdogan voter in these affected regions.  What they've chased off.....won't becoming back for several years and the general Turkish economy can't survive in this type of situation.

Video is worth watching and I'd recommend it.

Turkey and the Americans

Today, this odd item popped up with US and Turkey news.....the Russians and the Turks are in this friendly phase again.

Russia has approached Turkey for access to Incirlik Air Base....in the south of the country, which is a joint US-Turk installation.

The idea here is that with new relations between Turkey and Russia.....and both going at the Syrian war business....it only makes sense to deploy a squadron of Russian fighters there at Incirlik and use that as an attack point.

For the US....I can imagine all the generals around the Pentagon circle sitting there and shaking their heads.  The Russians will ask for full privileges and maybe even request usage of some the American facilities.....with pressure put upon the Americans by the Turks.....to cooperate.

Why?

Putin has played the whole Syrian war chessboard for the past year and made some smart moves.  Presently, because of the bad relationship with Europe.....Erdogan has to find some new friendly source for trade and tourism.  It makes sense in that way.

What would happen?  My guess is that the Americans would hope that this is a six-month situation and the Russians leave.  The Russians would ensure that this turns into a long-term situation and still be there a year later.....maybe even two years later.   You can sense.....this is bound to turn into a pretty bad situation sooner or later.

The Leergutautomat Machine

Around ten years ago in Germany....after years of talking about a problem....the German government had enough political support to create the idea of a mandatory bottle deposit program.  The grocery chains and drink business operations all hated the general idea....on day one.  They were key to the success or failure of the program.

A deposit is required of any soda (can or bottle), beer, or water container.  Wine, milk and fruit juices....all got a 'pass' on the deal.

The idea was that you'd get the public to pay a deposit, and they'd make sure that the bottle ended up back at some grocery, drink shop or gas station.  In theory, it probably works about 90-percent of the time.  The last ten-percent?  At public events, if you look around these days....a number of low-income folks are wandering around and attempting to pick up deposit bottles and return them for the deposit change.

A couple of years ago....for some major sports episode.....a TV journalist interviewed some zero-income guy who had a huge bag of returnable bottles.  For the entire day of effort.....he figured that he'd clear near forty-Euro.  It was non-taxable.....but he admitted that he might only get a day like this once per month.

The Leergutautomat machine?  Well....when you walk into a grocery store or drink shop....you will notice a machine near the front door....about the size of three soda machines.  It's got two points to insert either a case of beer or larger sized bottles.....and a place to insert single bottles.  A computer adds up what you gave to the machine and gives you a receipt and you go to the cashier to get your money.

Cost upon the grocery?  Yes.  Most Germans don't grasp that part of the game.  The leergutautomat machine has a cost and a maintenance angle.  None of these are cheap.  But they pass the cost onto you.....the customer.

Did the deposit business clean up the bottles on the street?  Yes.....but mostly because the low-income people now roam city streets, train stations, soccer stadiums, and parking lots....for empty bottles. I would take a guess in a town like Wiesbaden.....the low-income folks are raking in around a minimum of 5,000 Euro a week over the entire city.  Go figure 8-cents to 25-cents for a bottle and it adds up.

If you left Germany prior to 2006....you've probably never seen a Leergutautomat machine.  If you do happen to stop one day for another visit and wonder what this whole deposit thing is about.....it all leads to individual grocery and their machine where you will get your refund.  Even at the Frankfurt Airport now.....they have a number of these machines there to refund your cash there.

Photo Collection from Lindsey AS Today

 Most of what's on the installation that has been converted....won't be recognized.

Like in the photo to the right, this is a new condo-apartment building built on the west end of the old installation.  Note, it is highly upscale and lots of design added to it.

Several of the older buildings are as they looked in the 1970s or 1980s....with almost no change except for a few new shrubs or trees planted around them.

The baseball and football field.....still intact for the most part.

At the end of the outfield....there's a big huge apartment-like building going up with a underground parking lot.

One of the things you do notice is that there is a fair amount of underground parking added.....to the new structures erected on the old installation.  There was never a lot of parking and they've solved this with the underground parking.

Street names?  I'd say half stayed as they were and half flipped over to some international recognition.

Recycling cans?  There's probably 300 around the old installation today, at least three for each building (paper, regular and plastic).

The blitz camera?  Yeah, it's surprising that they erected this on the old main drag of the station.  It's a 30 kph street and I doubt if they get more than five or six photos per week....max.  Pure waste of a speed camera.

Bus stops?  There's probably five or six around the three corners of the area, and a major stop out on big street, next to KFC.

What you are left with is a highly designed urban area that people probably would be very happy to live in this neighborhood.  It's within walking distance of downtown, and they really pumped up the landscaping of the area.

In essence, it's got charm now.

Old Lindsey Air Station

For the past couple of weeks, I've been taking a class over at what was the old Lindsey Air Station of Wiesbaden.  It was turned over in 1993, and the city spent a couple of years in renovation and re-design of the 'neighborhood'.

Today, if you walk over what was existing in the early 1990s.....it's a different atmosphere....like a urbanized landscape against some buildings of late 1800s character, and twenty-odd buildings of a modern design.  Trees everywhere, with carefully designed shrubbery.

The street names from the old Air Station mostly remain.....a couple of the streets did get renamed.

The football field and baseball area is still around.

If you were grading on re-usage.....I'd give them a 'ten' for efforts.  A couple of the buildings shifted over to commercial use.  A lot of the newer buildings put into place are apartment or condo buildings.  Tree cover is virtually everywhere.

Reminders of the base?  Other than the football field, two statues, and the street names.....you really wouldn't know that the US military ever had a base there.

Checking out the area?  My advice is to take the #8 bus from mid-town area and it'll drop you by the VHS facility (6-min ride).  From there, you can walk the whole perimeter of the old base.

This German Talk Over Banning the Burka

Over the past couple of months, there's been increasing amounts of hype by political folks over the idea of banning the Burka.  If you took the measurement of who is saying this....it comes from mostly the AfD Party, to a lesser degree the CSU and CDU Parties.....and to a very minor degree from the SPD Party.

The odds of any ban occurring?  I have my doubts.

First, you need to ask what these people mean.  There are several types of Burkas.  Few people get into this topic or grasp that there are basically four types of Burkas.

- The Hijab is simply the headscarf which covers the hair and neck.  If you ask most Germans....99-percent have no problem with the headscarf covering.

- The Chador, which is normally only worn by women of Iran or Afghanistan.  It's like the Hijab with the face uncovered and more of a shawl than anything else.  I think most Germans have no problem with the Chador.

- Then you come to the Niqab, which has the opening for the eyes only.  Most Muslims will say that this comes from the groups more attached to the Wahabi Islam beliefs than anywhere else.  This is typically not the type of covering that you'd see with women from Iran.  Here, I think if you asked the general German public.....at least one-third of the public thinks this needs to be eliminated in some fashion.  I should add....based on traveling around Germany.....that a decade ago, it was very rare that you'd see this type of covering.  Today?  If you go into Frankfurt or Wiesbaden and spend eight hours around the shopping district....you'd probably observe a minimum of thirty women wearing the Niqab.

- Then you come to the true "Burka", the fourth in this group.  This is the one which features a veil-like material over the eyes.  It's wearer?  Typically the Pashtuns of Afghanistan.  I can't think of any other group in the Middle East which utilizes it.  The odds of seeing someone wear this true "Burka" in Germany?  I have to be honest and admit in the past year.....I've seen a total of two women only.  It's very rare.

The second part of this discussion is that religious freedom is one of those virtues guaranteed by the Basic Law (Germany's Constitution).  If X-religion says such-and-such hat is required, then religious freedom typically falls into play.  In this case, the covering.  It's to see how they can draft a law and find enough support among either the SPD Party or some current opposition party in the Bundestag.  Unless you can establish some division in the thinking process over religious freedom.....I just don't see enough votes to make this happen.

The safety part of this discussion?  Well....this is an interesting part to the story.  Last week, it got brought up by a safety official that the Niqab and the Burka.....both might be hazardous and create an unsafe field of vision....if the person was driving and wearing the item.  I sat and pondered this for a while and have to agree....on the talk of open vision....they have a solid point.  Might there be a law which says no Burka or Niqab while driving?  That might get some attention in various German states and actually pass.....then have some federal court ask questions.

In 2014, no one would have brought this up and it wouldn't have been a hot political topic.  Today?  For the 2017 election coming up?  I could see this being a topic and hurting the SPD Party in various ways.

Germany always placed itself as a very open and tolerant society.....selling the image to everyone who came for a visit.  The curious segment to this topic is that the Germans already opened up their society, dragging a lot of Germans kicking and screaming through the past forty-odd years of progression.  So if you were trying to sell the Germans that reverse-progression or cultural anchors from past conservative eras are acceptable.....well....it just won't sell to the general German public.

How society might react to a ban?  It'll be challenged in court and the make-up of the Bundestag after the 2017 election will matter greatly.  I'd take a guess that some interest groups or lobbyists would try to make it a big cultural problem to accept.  The general problem I see from a cultural point....is that it simply turns into a dividing line for group X to be special.....from group Y.  Eventually, someone will walk into a job interview....get the job, and week later show up for work.....wearing a Niqab.  The boss will say it's a no-go situation, and terminate the employee.  It's the kind of question that we need to establish one way or another now......or face tons of discrimination law suits in the future.

So, when you see the topic come up.....you can assume it's going to be one of those four-star discussion episodes with some intellectual German stuck with a very limited problem.

Visiting a German House and Drinks

This is my essay of advice to the non-German.....who arrives in Germany and finds that they've been invited over to a German household or apartment.  It might be a neighbor, a client, a co-worker, a customer, a new friend, or some swanky German gal with unknown intentions.  This is my list of fifteen things that you might want to know before arriving.

1.  Generally upon entering a German residence.....the host will get real peppy about offering up a drink.  So get this in your head.....beverage refreshment is priority number one.

2.  The age and sex of the host figures into this.  If this is a twenty-two year old guy....then don't expect more than five drink options.  If it's a 30-year old gal.....you might actually have twenty drink options.  If this is a German couple in their fifties.....there's probably thirty to forty drink options.

3.  Water.  It's a natural tendency in the summer period to go for the water option.  But since you are the American....please note....Germans have several options. There's plain old Tafelwasser....bottled water.  There is stilles wasser, which typically is spring water or glacier water, without any bubbles or minerals added.  Then there's tonic water.  Then there's mineral wasser....with a 'taste'.  Or, you could ask for tap water.

4.  Ice.  Typically ice rarely ever gets offered unless it's a really hot day.  If they have a fancy ice-maker or a bag of ice in the freezer.....it might be offered.  Assume under all cases.....if you aren't offered any....it won't be served with any.

5.  Non-alcoholic beer.  Twenty years ago....no one kept a supply of it in the house.  Today, five-percent of homes will have a couple of these around for certain guests.  It tastes like beer but there's no alcohol to it.  My advice is to skip it.

6.  Saftpresse.  This is typically a physical fitness freak host and they've got a juicer machine.....offering to make up some juice of varying quality.  You just can't tell if the guy might throw in some carrot or such....and screw up a decent fruity-drink.  So you might want to ask questions.

7.  Coffee.  In the winter period, it's common to offer coffee.  You might want to know that Germans tend to make strong coffee.  There's the brewed type and the bag type.  Usually, Germans offer premium coffee....not the cheap stuff.  So you want want to say a word of appreciation after sipping the coffee.

8.  Tea.  If you go for tea.....and they pull out some fancy British tea gadget.....they are making a fair effort to impress you and it won't be cheap Lipton tea.  You need to appreciate it after tasting it.

9.  Gluhwine.  In the November and December period.....gluhwine is popular.  It's got a heck of a lot of sugar and you should limit yourself to two cups max (especially if driving).

10.  Cola.  In the German market today, I'd take a guess that between colas and energy drinks....there's about 150 options.  Most people will keep regular Coke or Pepsi around.....maybe a can of of Sprite, and maybe some odd flavor options.  Older folks might even offer up Afri-Cola, which is a drink like Coke.  Please note....you won't be offered ice unless you ask for it.  The younger crowd might have six to ten soda options in the kitchen.....half of it might not be in the refrigerator or chilled.

11.  Cocktails are rarely if ever made up or offered.  If the host has fixed up a fancy dinner...they might have gone to some trouble of making a cocktail for everyone as they enter the home.

12.  Wine.  Wine doesn't get offered unless it's an evening visit.  There are various types of wine, and your host might be opening up an awful dry wine.....so just grin and bear it.

13.  Beer.  German guys always offer beer as a first choice, and they might actually have a stock of a dozen beers in some basement refrigerator.  I'd take a guess that two-percent of German guys might even have thirty differing types of beer in the house.  Some might be chilled.....some might be basement "cool".  Remember that a radical and unusual beer will usually start up a conversation about the taste or aroma.....so you need to actually spin the beer around your taste buds and think of something witty to say.  If the setting is on the patio or balcony.....beer might be served from noon onto midnight.

14.  Sangria.  Spanish wine gets served by the younger crowd and will be in a large container....with bits of fruit added.  It's strictly a hot-season drink.  Ice will be served with it.  Don't expect it in most settings. For someone who has just come back from Spain and a vacation....it'll be a popular drink that they like to serve for a couple of weeks.

15.  At the end of the affair....it's wise to compliment the German host on drinks.  Limit your alcohol consumption, and don't get stupid-drunk.  And remember that in most cases.....they are trying to impress you and be a gracious host.  Even if you aren't thirsty.....accept some kind of drink just to get this requirement off their mind

What An Uninformed Kid Gets Into

Years ago, in my military years, I tended to notice that the hyped-up and over-dosed crowd on patriotism.....were usually the ones who had the least amount of knowledge about American history, the Constitution, general law, and civic affairs.

I discussed this observation with an older gentlemen that I worked with....who'd done twenty years of military service and ten years of contractor work.  His thoughts were.....people really don't get much of an education in high school in regard to the topics mentioned.  A kid finishes school with enough basic knowledge for twenty 3x5 cards on history and they get some false sense of reality.  As he noted.....these are the idiots who end up as some mayor, senator or eventually some President....but they really aren't well-suited for the profession they hold.

Today, I noticed out of the German news this odd situation that journalists had stumbled across.  Some reporters had found that there in Syria and Iraq....in the midst of this 2013/2014 build-up to the ISIS war....that various recruits were arriving and didn't really know anything much about Islam.

Naturally, you'd think.....young guy....twenties....pumped up back in France, England, and Germany...on the Muslim religion.  He ought to have a hundred 3x5 cards of information in his mind and be able to quote Muhammad real easy.  Well....no.

According to analysis by the AP reporters and their agency.....various documents show that thousands of these jihadists members.....just didn't know nothing much about Islam.  At best?  Five percent are said to have a decent amount of information or knowledge. The bulk....near 70-percent....knew just basic stuff and that was it.  The rest?  It's best not to even bring up that 25-percent crowd.

What's this mean?  If you were a circus recruitment guy....you'd want to go and recruit the dumbest idiots possible....so you could easily bring them into the circus profession and get them accepting just about everything.....no matter how stupid it sounded....as absolute truth.

So you wonder why they had to make these music video episodes that had Islamic themes and comments in the background?  Mostly because they were dealing with guys without much intellect or common sense.

All of this led to what might be called in-house training....some Islamic scholar in the midst of combat operations.....trying to ensure that the "kids" got some increased knowledge in their core beliefs.

My humble guess is that a quarter or more of the 'kids' involved.....wised up within thirty days and realized that this was pretty crappy instruction....and were looking for some method of escape.

So, you stand back and reflect upon this.  A bunch of hyped-up but dismal students of the topic involved.  Enthusiastic but they can't really detail this out in any rational statement or state their core feeling on the topic.  All of this....while in some hot hell-hole and threat of death seven minutes away?  Yeah.....that's about the whole summary of this issue.

What if you were the German government?  I might start to expand the mind and the thinking of a bunch of 13-year old punk kids who say they are Muslim while they are in school.  I'd ask challenging questions.....make them explain something by research and through a research process.....make them objective about the bigger picture of life.  You don't need to go to some hell-hole or be seven minutes away from death.  There's more to life than that.

Why it took the journalists three years to realize this?   Unknown.  I'd like to ask more but with the journalists crowd you have today.....investigative journalism is almost non-existent.

The Secret Papers?

It started yesterday morning in Germany....short news item.....classified BND (German CIA) report....identifying Erdogan's government in Turkey as having relationships with various pro-Islam groups throughout the Middle East.  HAMAS, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, various groups in Syria, etc.

How long have they known this?  Unknown.  I'd take a guess that the report was probably written in the past six months, and mostly just sitting there.....no one wanting to really pick up the knowledge or act with it.

What does it all add up to?  The crew within the inner circle of Erdogan's Turkey has possibly influenced various events to occur in several neighboring countries.  If you were Egypt.....you might be fairly upset.  If you were Syria.....you might be very angry.  Iraq?  Lebanon?  Israel?

The document is said to be classified and wasn't meant for public consumption.  No one says how it was received....probably some insider who just said 'enough' and gave a copy of the document to the state-run news people.

It puts Chancellor Merkel and the direction of German-Turkey relations into a fairly difficult spot.  The ethical side of the German government has often often been displayed over the past two decades and generally....Germans expect the 'right' thing to be done.  But in this case.....how do you handle Turkey in the future?  If you were Syria.....you might be fairly upset.  Turkey is a part of NATO but are openly inviting some type of retaliation.  Would both the US and Germany provide military support in the future?  Unknown.

In some ways, this report has opened up a door that should have been kept closed.  You can't go into any meeting with Erdogan-appointees or talk agreements....without considering the fact that they have other motives involved.

For the rest of the week, I expect 'no comment' out of the Merkel office and some hope that the topic will be less of a public thing in a week.  But eventually, someone is going to ask a direct question and Merkel will have to deliver a response.

How Your Country Might Matter

Toward the end of 2015 in Germany....when the immigrant number for the year was approaching a million-plus entries....someone put up a response to some German state-run TV journalist piece.....suggesting that if these were half-a-million Italians immigrating into Germany.....things would be different (meaning more easily accepted by the public).  For months, this thought has been on my mind.....except it wasn't Italians that I was considering.  It was Americans.

In my "fantasy".....with the great immigration and migrant surge into Germany, I took the idea and have pondered through it for months....that for 2015, there could have mostly Americans that entered, instead of Syrians and Iraqis.

How much trouble would the Americans gotten into?

Well, let's start with the reception centers do-gooder crowd coming out and offering coffee, water, etc.  I have my doubts that they would have been as receptive as they were in this case.  Naturally, if we'd walked from Greece up the trail.....maybe it would put us in a better situation....but Americans tend to do things differently.  There would have been some History Channel reality show with five or six American refugees making the trek.  We would have stopped and done two-hour interviews with various German reporters....discussing the landscape, weather, and the anticipated wonderland upon arrival in Germany.

The refugee centers?  I think we would have stepped in and immediately started organizing things.  There would have been the Committee for Morale, the Committee for Sanitation, the Committee for Disciplinary Matters, the Committee for Camp Improvements, etc.  Americans are that way....we seem to take charge of matters and organize.....even when it's not really our affair to do so.  German intellectuals would have been a bit hyped up and negative that we were organizing without their help.

The paperwork business?  We would have asked if this was all necessary and then started to make recommendations.  That fingerprint business?  We would have suggested some Microsoft Ap on day one and explained how you could buy bulk licenses of it for X amount of money.  The Germans would have been peeved about our suggestion business after a week of quality improvement ideas.

The gentle push into German language requirements for the visa?  After a week, we would have come to die, der and das.....and just plain suggested that 'der' is enough and the rest of this is unnecessary.  The stress level for German language instructors would have gone up a notch or two....with some blowing their lid and telling the American that they've had 10,000 years to work on the language and they know better than the idiot who just arrived six months ago.

Integration efforts?  This would have smoothly until you got to some social issues....the TV tax, ID's required for voting, no stores open on Sundays, and too much bell-ringing.

The pool groping business?  I doubt if we'd gotten into that kind of trouble, but American guys kinda like wearing cut-off's, which are deemed illegal at most German pools.  And we tend to do some crazy stuff at pools which would have gotten us into serious life-guard issues.

As the months rolled by, I think Americans would have been quickly deemed as a group that wasn't easily accepted by the German intellectuals.  The Greens, the Linke Party, the SPD.....they would have all stepped away and said that we just weren't the right people to allow to immigrate into Germany.  We would have made ourselves....unwelcomed guests.

After pondering this fantasy....I also came to another nationality which I think would have gone and done the same things....and gotten the same results.....the British.  Half-a-million Brits arriving in Germany and all heck would have broken out in six months, with a lot of angry and hurtful feelings with the Germans.

So in some ways....the Afghans, the Iraqis, and Syrians are well off.  They got a free-pass or two, and didn't draw as much negative attention as some other groups might have done.

Maybe one day....some smart guy will sit down and analyze the heck out of nationalities and assign some value on integration values if X went to Y-country.

The reality though....is that there weren't half-a-million Americans immigrating into Germany.  Maybe that's a good thing.

Increased Security at Fest

I went last night to the Wiesbaden wine fest.  It's a fairly big deal.....probably around 10,000 folks sipping a thousand different wines from the valley.

Of the local events to attract people.....it's one of the top three in the city.

Last night....was a bit different than previous episodes.

About two minutes into walking around....I came to notice a pair of German cops doing the foot patrol of the fest.  It's typical to have a patrol there.

Three minutes later.....another foot patrol.  Three minutes after the 2nd patrol.....came a 3rd patrol.

I would take a guess that four foot patrols were active at the fest.  Normally, you might see one single patrol (2 officers) in the early hours, and a second patrol after 10PM.....mostly for drunk control.

Hyped up security?  Yes.  Probably due to the fear of terrorism.

It's a sign of how city leadership is viewing national trends and trying to ensure they've covered the essentials.  A cost item for the budget?  Well....yeah.  If you consider there are around six of these fests per year in Wiesbaden, and each will require more cops on patrol....someone is having to pay for this.

Why Density and Ethnic Groups Matter in Germany

When you sit down and talk about issues in Germany....a fair number of these issue relate back to density of the particular German state you are talking about (one of the sixteen).  Few people ever visualize Germany in terms of density.

The three 'kings' of density in Germany are Berlin, Hamburg, and Bremen.  Oddly, Brandenburg and Mecklenburg are at the bottom in terms of density.  If you add up the top three and compare against the bottom two....the bottom two are two-percent of the combined top three.

Each of the top three?  If you bring up crime, integration issues, public frustration....it tends to gather more in highly urbanized areas of Germany.....not in the lesser urbanized areas.

Ethnic diversity in these highly urbanized states?  This is another interesting topic.

If you go to North Rhine Westphalia.....there are ten significant communities often talked about.  The Turks and Kurds always get talked about.  The lesser groups?  The Italians, the Dutch, the Poles, the French, the Arabs, the Iranians, the Indians, and strangely enough....the Japanese (a large community in Koln).

When you go to Berlin....there are a minimum of 20 different ethnic groups in the region: the Turks, the Kurds, the Vietnamese (left-overs from the DDR years), the Arab community, the Bosnians, the Poles, the Russians, the Albanians, the Serbs, the Israelis, the Chinese, the Africans (multiple countries), the Chileans, the Brazilians, and the Americans.  Americans are thought to now number in the 20,000 range.  Some are part of the new IT sector that is growing, and others are simply part of the Berlin-cultural crowd (art, literature, cinema, etc).

When you go to Hamburg....there are probably a dozen significant ethnic groups in the city-state:
the Turks, the Kurds, the Russians, the Africans (various nationalities), the Poles, the Albanians, the Dutch, the Pakistanis, the Iranians, the Macedonians, the Chinese, and the Portuguese.

The 'viertel" issue?  Virtually every major city in Germany today....has a viertel (quarter) to represent some ethnic group from that city.  You will have an entire neighborhood which over the past couple of decades has become the Turk-quarter, the Polish-quarter, the Albanian-quarter, the Arab-quarter, etc.  Even in Wiesbaden today.....a city of 280,000 residents....a Turk-quarter is firmly into the mix of things, and there's an Arab-quarter likely in the way of building up as well.  Within ten years in Wiesbaden, I'd expect a Syrian-quarter to exist, and probably an Eritrean-quarter.  

There is this trend which few journalists notice or grasp.  It's rare that any immigrant group appears in some rural region of Germany....or for that matter a small town of 2,000 residents.  So these density regions and high immigrant targets all fall into the same circle.

At some point in the future.....I imagine some idiot will invent some new phobia word.....vietel-phobic....to indicate that some Germans are against urbanization and foreign-quarter creation.  Maybe even in Berlin....the term "Ammi-phobic" will occur, to identify some phobia against too many Americans in some German urbanized area like Berlin.

An Essay over Expelling

This essay is about the width and depth of refugee talk in Germany....over expelling a failed applicant.

Once you enter Germany....basically by walking or hiking in....you just walk up to some cop....announce yourself....and he takes you to some station in the state where they pull out some papers, and get you signed up for asylum, immigration, or refugee status.  They usually wanted to see a passport, which sometimes got produced, and sometimes....there was no passport.

Forty years ago, Germans wouldn't have accepted that 'no-passport' story and your odds of getting past the airport or border would have been marginal.  Today, generally no problem.

So they move you to such-and-such refugee center.  Each state has to run an operation and there's some guy in Nuremberg who is doing the tally and making sure that there is fair distribution to the sixteen states. Don't ask about the distribution formula....because it gets to being fairly complicated (something like rocket science but ten times more difficult).

You arrive with your family and find that the camp/center....is better than what you got on the road but it's not exactly some hotel operation like your cousin suggested from two years ago.  There's a heated building, plenty of food, and some basic comforts.   More paperwork is accomplished and you are told that you will be considered for a full-up visa.  They caution you....it won't come back in six weeks, which was the norm back in 2005.  They hint in a nice way....it might be six to nine months.

The longer you stay....the more likely you think you will be approved.  It's a silly idea, but that's generally how it works.  Most people have NO plan B.  They've put everything into this hike to Germany.

Liars?  That's part of the problem.  You will find X number of people bought an Iraqi or Syrian passport (fake) and pretend to be from that region and talk of the threat of ISIS upon their family.  Later, they get discovered to being Moroccan or Libyan, and so the potential of getting approved goes from ninety-percent chance down to one-percent chance.....rather quickly.  Germans don't appreciate liars that much.

As weeks and months go by....you see people who pass the visa application and people who fail.  What you tend to notice is that some people in the background....the volunteers at the site....the doctors....the legal representation folks....they all seem to be wanting to "help" you and quickly mount appeals or create stalling tactics.

A doctor will discover some health problem, or some lawyer will find an error in your paperwork.  So you get another 90 days here or maybe even six more months.

These people think they are doing a great positive thing....by defeating the mechanism which they believe is unfairly built and will not give people a fair chance to live in Germany.  The fact that the law created this method and they are helping to violate the law....doesn't usually come up in their thinking process.

The government doesn't talk about the kicking-out process very much.  I guess they aren't happy about the public stigma attached to the process.   States are the ones stuck with the duty....not the federal folks (they only survey the application and pass/fail the applicants).

If this were me....I'd bring the 10 folks failing the application today into a hall and just say your stay is over with, and you will be escorted to your room or cubicle to pick up your personal belonging and then loaded onto a truck to some special center built only for failed applicants.  No volunteers allowed.  You bring in five retired German bureaucrats (put them up at a local hotel and pay them 4,000 Euro for their services) each month to review the failed packages and give it a once over.  Then ship the guy back to his homeland.  If they refuse him....just keep at the special center (fenced in completely) as long as it takes to find him another country to accept him.

This talk by the CDU interior minister?  He wants to quicken the pace and just get these people out, but there's no agreement with the coalition partner (the SPD Party).  So, I doubt if anything will really occur.....unless you dump half the folks in the Bundestag via some election.

As for German public?  I'm guessing they will eventually get to the point of asking what exactly are they paying from the tax revenue pot....for failed applicants and their basic necessities.  The Berlin folks will just grin and say they don't really know.....but you can probably do the numbers and come to twenty-odd million Euro a month minimum.  That won't come across as pocket-change to the typical tax-payer.

Fixing any of this?  Impossible.  Faking the public enough to think that they might be fixing things?  Well....that's about all Germans can hope for.