Saturday, August 6, 2016

The Month Before the Mecklenburg Election

We are four weeks from the Mecklenburg state election in Germany.

The current polling?  If you use the Infratest polling chart, which was updated about four weeks ago....this is the trend:

CDU: 25-percent
SPD: 22-percent
Linke Party: 17-percent
AfD: 19-percent

The Greens and FDP would not cross the 5-percent point, to be recognized within the state assembly.

Now, there are two things which you ought to get out of this poll.

First, it was accomplished before the attacks and terrorism episodes....some Germans might be more vocal now in being anti-SPD or anti-CDU, and voice support for the AfD.

Second, it makes partnering up to reach the 50-percent almost impossible, without the FDP or Greens crossing that 5-percent point.  If the SPD doesn't cross the 20-percent would mean the likely winner....the CDU....would have to partner with the Linke Party and it's hard to imagine how they'd explain that to their membership....not just state-wise, but even nationally.

The possibility that the AfD (anti-immigration party) might cross the 24-percent point and actually win in Mecklenburg?  It would a shocker....cause an impossible situation for them to form a coalition....and frighten the national leadership and state-run TV news folks to the absolute maximum.

The real loser?  Five years ago, the SPD got 35-percent of the vote and was the winner of that state's election.  They will have lost forty-percent of their support in five years.  That's a story worth telling but I doubt if the state-run news people want to explain this in public.

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