Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Saarland: 2017 Election View

There are three state elections in Germany in 2017.  One of the states involved....is Saarland.

The expected date for the election around the end of Feb or beginning of Mar, 2017.

Last election:

The SPD carried almost 30-percent of the vote.....while the CDU Party won with 35-percent.  The far-left Linke Party took 16-percent, while the Pirate Party took 7.4-percent, and the Greens took 5-percent.  The AfD?  They weren't active in Saarland politics in 2012 when the last state election occurred.

Likely outcome this time?  We have seven months until the election and no real polling data on what might occur in the Saarland.  Last time around, there were 481,000 votes in the election.

My best guess is that both CDU and SPD will lose around 12 points from their 2012 election, and the Linke Party might see two or three points lost  as well.  The AfD Party might be able to take near 15-percent in the state.  If the AfD were to go past the 20-percent point, it would cause some significant worry for the CDU and SPD nationally.

The Pirate Party is currently in a rebuilding stage nationally, and this election in Berlin will help or hinder the Pirate Party numbers in the Saarland.  If the Linke Party were to take less than half the votes that they did in 2012.....it would cause a lot of worry about the national trend for them and unsettle their handcuffed stance on the immigration situation.

If you were looking for indicators of where the fall national election might go.....this might be an interesting election to watch.

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