Social Media, Juveniles, and a 'Dragon-Scenario'

 Around 2014, I had a daily German class....which required me to venture to my local town (Wiesbaden) each morning.  To get there, I rode the 7:15 AM bus out of my village.

This meant that I spent roughly twenty minutes on a bus with six adults and forty juveniles.  

So early on, I noted this trend.  'Huns' would be seated there and texting away to 'Martin'.  One had avoided the math homework....the other the science homework.  'Huns' opened up his work-booklet for math and photographed the page to be sent by WhatsApp.  'Martin' did his science page and sent it to 'Huns'.  A minute later, 'Huns' was filling in the blanks on his homework and was done by the time we arrived in the mid-city area.  'Martin' for all I know....was probably six to eight km away, or maybe over in the Frankfurt region.  

Was this screwing up the learning process?  Probably.  But how exactly would you halt this?

A month later, I stood waiting at the bus stop in town....waiting on a bus to return home.  Here stood two teenage girls (probably 13 years old), with one fairly distraught and weeping away. 

From what I could get out of this conversation....some boy had texted this weepy-girl a 'we are finished' comment.  No face to face meeting....just a text message.  The second girl was at least trying to console the weepy girl, but this wasn't achieving much.  Before WhatsApp came along, this would have all been a face-to-face thing, and maybe settled things in a more appropriate manner.

Since that fall, I've kinda observed a fair number of problems with social media, juveniles and the path of uncertainty....what I would call a 'dragon-scenario'.  

The 'dragon-scenario' is where people chat about things which aren't certain or 100-percent factual.  They worry about the unknown.  

Between pro-suicide chat rooms, cyber-bully situations, and teens walking into adult-situations without the tools to grasp things....the internet has delivered a serious problem for society.

I would almost go and suggest somewhere around age twelve....there needs to be this class called 'growing-up' where you lay out maturity topics that you normally wouldn't confront until you were 17 to 20 years old.  

Somewhere along this path....teaching kids to be skeptical, giving them the tools to recognize fake news, and arming them against cyber-bullying....is going to be messy.  In some ways, we are taking juveniles off the kid-track, and making them young adults...way ahead of time.  But there is no alternate path for this situation.  

2020: The 'Kabosh' Year

 The Turks have this word....kabosh, which generally means zero value.  Somewhere over the decades, kabosh got accepted into the English language, and today means 'bringing something to an end'.  It would refer to you having something, and then turning a corner to have nothing.

I would describe 2020 as a kabosh year.  Between Covid-19 and the ten-thousand little associated events....you came out at the conclusion to realize there's really not much in 2020 to talk about...at least in a positive way.

You wear masks if you venture out.  You observe any noise of someone coughing as a big deal.  You hit the mute-button for the TV if Doctor Doom or Doctor Death appears.  You avoid watching travel documentary pieces because it'd just give you enthusiasm to travel to Tokyo, Borneo or Paris.  You look at stupid statistical tables daily....how many ICU beds exist, and how many are taken-up.  You get some stupid vaccine update story, which pumps you up....but then get a comical story that makes you doubt reality.  

How it'll be reviewed in forty years?  I would suggest that historians refer to it as a 'dark' year, and mostly left to be forgotten.  

The Ten Things That German Public TV (17.50 Euro a month) Gets Right

 This is my list, and I think most everyone in Germany has an opinion on public TV.  Some are kinda negative, and some are somewhat positive.  The rest?  Mostly in the middle.  

My ten positives?

1.  Around three or four times a year, ARD/ZDF goes out and does a 5-star movie/mini-series episode on a historical situation (usually the 1930s Nazi era, or the 1950s/1960s).  I will admit....these are high-cost production and done at a high-quality level.  

2.  Regional state news (like my region's HR network) does a surprisingly good job.  If you want to really follow your state....I'd always suggest the 7:30 PM local news.

3.  Weather is fairly accurate and graphically a 4-star production.

4.  These 8:15 'extras' occasionally done....drilling down on some emergency or some high profile news episode...are fairly indepth, and if you knew absolutely nothing over the topic....you'd get to the right level of knowledge in their 15-to-20 minute edition.

5.  When they do a public chat forum.....on some rare occasions, they will invite regular people to participate, and you get a better view from them...than the 'talking-dogs' that the media invites on.

6.  The regional channels do a great job with talking about fests, local vacation spots, or restaurants.  If you spend an hour a week 'browsing' these pieces....you'd probably five or six ideas for the next month and a weekend outing.

7.  Cooking shows.  Personally, I have zero interest....but my German wife hypes the regular pieces done on the regional network, and will cite a dish or two each month as being on her experimental list.

8.  Oddly enough, between ZDF and ARD....after 11 PM....almost nightly, there's some 4-star movie on and you are a bit pissed that they had such a movie on and it's too late for you to watch the whole three-hour movie.

9.  Generally, on Covid-19....the two public networks did what I'd consider a decent job of explaining problems, details and issues.  Maybe you'd disagree on particular details, but they spoon-fed you the data to grasp things.

10.  Finally, the public radio network.  When it comes down to my public station (HR3)....I consider the choice of music to be five-star quality.  I can't think of any US FM station that ever came as close to normal regular quality music for 30-to-60 year old people.  

Who were the Roter Frontkampferbund?

 This is one of those historical essays that I occasionally write.

The Roter Frontkämpferbund (RFB) basically translates over to the Alliance of Red Front-Fighters.

They existed in Germany from the summer of 1924, until the spring of 1929 (before the economic collapse in October).

They were a far-left paramilitary group, under the Communist Party of Germany.

In simple terms....they were the street-fighters and there to project an image.  Who they fought?  Basically anyone....the police, the SPD Party members (left-of-center) and the far-right.

How many were in the 'club'?  Well...it's argued a good bit.  The general belief is that it was more than 100,000 members across the nation and mostly in highly urbanized areas.

How they disappeared in 1929?  Well....the SPD had a Bundestag vote, and basically voted that they could not exist.

What happened to the RFB members in the 1930s?  They were on the list to be arrested by the Nazis.  A lot of them in the early-to-mid-30s....ended up in concentration camps, and didn't survive the war.  Those who escaped?  They made their way to the USSR, and were part of the invasion effort in 1944/1945.  

After 1945?  Well....these members who survived and were part of the Soviet occupying force ended as East German authorities (the police) and later as actual government leaders.

Were they an eventual threat to the SPD government in the late 1920s?  Without any doubt, yes. 

Were they an eventual threat to the Nazi government in the 1930s?  Without any doubt, yes.

Were they a driving force to the way that the DDR government functioned in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s?  Without any doubt, yes.  

The oddity that the BLM folks in the US have taken the symbiology....never grasping the history behind it?  Well....it's just another odd piece of history that people seem to miss.   

Covid-19 and the Threat of Fines

 State by state in Germany, the threats of fines are obvious.  States often differ on the threat.  Focus did a good update to lay out this problem.

Example: if you live in Baden-Wurttemberg and walk around without a mask in 'protected areas', then the ranges from 50 Euro to 250 Euro (the police admit most of the time, it's set at 70 Euro).  If you are wandering around without 'reason' in the state?  Well...that can run from 50 Euro to 500 Euro.

Example: in Bavaria, if you walk in a protected area without a mask....that's a plain 250 Euro fine.

Example: in Berlin, if you hold a private party with too many guests....that's a 500 Euro fine if the cops stumble upon it.

Example: in Mecklenburg, if you went off to a prohibited event (demonstration for example), that gets you a 400 Euro fine.

Example: in the Pfalz, if you walked into a store or enclosed building without a mask....50 Euro fine.

There is no national fine policy....each state is running its own operation and set to whatever level that the coalition government locally can justify. 

The Quintuple Story

 So this story came up today via Focus (just after 12).

Up in the Vorpommern-Ruggen area (way up in NE Germany)....the vaccine team yesterday (Sunday) arrived at some old-folks home to administrator Covid-19 shots. 

Now, no one really says the background or training-level of the vaccine team, and it probably begs to be asked.

The vaccine team set things up and got ready with the first couple of folks....to be the eight employees on duty (7 ladies, and 1 guy).  

Somewhere in the process....the vaccine person set up the doses.  What they put in each 'unit'?  FIVE times the correct amount.  So each of the eight got five times the 'juice' needed.

Someone must have said something, and this discussion started up.  The manager dismissed the eight (sent home).  Then the next event occurs (Monday AM).....four of the folks were a bit 'sickly' and the health authorities decided to send them off to the local hospital to be looked after.  They didn't utter the word 'quarantine' but you'd assume they were treated in a 'special' way.

The vaccine makers?  They had tested larger doses on people, and in the studies.....nothing much adverse happen except for maybe flu-like issues.  

As for the eight folks?  I would imagine that in three to four weeks as they return for dose number two....they will be asking for a real expert, and be a bit skeptical of the shot-crew.  

You would think....on the side of the bottle, it'd say x-dose equals x-amount.  Course, maybe the shot-crew is made up of nursing students or doctor-kids in med-school.  

Update this PM (Tuesday): One of the eight is fairly bad off.  What they say....as you draw the vaccine out of the bottle....it's supposed to be mixed with a saline solution (5 to 1 ratio apparently), and someone simply put the full mix vaccine into the shot device.  

Alcohol Ban?

 This morning, via my local city government (Wiesbaden), they put the word out....starting at 7 PM on Thursday (New Years Eve) and running to 6 AM the next day (Friday, 1st of January)....NO BOOZE sales.

Nowhere....not even at city gas stations or grocery outlets.

Also, NO public consumption on any street or in any park.

Covid ban?  Yes.  Part of the ban rules, so if you break the rule....it's a hefty fine involved.

Basically, you buy your booze early, and sip it quietly in your house or apartment....or you sneak off into the woods with your dozen buddies.

The general feeling of this holiday season?  I'd say December kinda went at the 20-percent point of feeling like Christmas, and the Silvester celebration business (without the fireworks)....is kinda running the same way.

But somewhere at the end of this mess with Covid-19....there's probably going to be some national fake holiday invented where folks drink excessively and hang out in dozens of functions around the region.  It'd run like Oktoberfest but be called Coronafest.  

Covid, Cost, and 2021

 There was a business report today, via N-TV (commercial news) and it was one of those topics that you'd reflect upon.

The German Institute of Economic Research (DIW) sat down and figured up the cost of Covid-19 to Germany.  DIW is usually a group of think-tank folks who have the PhDs and the data to say something is factual.

They say at this point (end of 2020, and roughly 10 months of effect on the nation)....the total amount of cost is 391-billion Euro (figure around 425 billion US dollars).

Then they add this paragraph onto the analysis.....the current shut-down has to end shortly.  If it goes through to Easter....4 Apr 2021....like some people think, then it's a total disaster for Germany and would take years to recover.

The positive side?  Well, behind this big mess, they say that regular Germans held back buying things in 2020.  They didn't spend real money on vacations....cars....RVs....a whole list of things.  They didn't go out to bars, pubs and restaurants as much.  So DIW thinks they got cash in their pockets and if the vaccine strategy works....this whole gloomy-and-crappy 2021 feeling will not occur.  

Are they right?  I sat and examined my own habits. In a typical year (without the wife supervising me and sneaking off on exotic day-trips in Hessen or the Pfalz), I  would spent around 1,500 Euro on rail-trips, museums, and the forays.  After mid-Feb, my free-living status went to zero.   The money wasn't spent.

On ice cream, coffee and German cheesecake in 2020?  Well....I would have spent in the range of 600 Euro over the year.  About 85-percent of that amount was never spent.

That fantastic trip to Japan that I had planned back in March, for around 9,000 Euro?  Never spent.  That cruise I was planning for October, for around 3,000 Euro?  Never spent. 

The 200 Euro that I would have spent at the Wiesbaden Christmas market on crazy-sugar food, crapes, and gluhwein over that four-week period leading up to Christmas?  Never spent.  

So yeah....there's a ton of money I didn't spend in 2020, and I could cut loose in 2021 (maybe)....if things improved.  We (including myself in this German group) could stand up and just start spending money left and right.  

Fake Covid-19 Chatter?

 Maybe it's not funny, but this morning via SWR (SW Germany public TV), they started talking about fake Covid-19 vaccination 'invitation' letters arriving at the homes of some people.

What the authorities say....these letters look pretty genuine. 

Who made them?  Well....the authorities say the anti-vaccine crowd.

What's the Pfalz leadership doing?  Just advocating there is the on-line system, and a priority existing.

More of these fake letters to occur?  It wouldn't surprise me if they start floating these letters to involve a fake-fee, or to suggest that you can bring your dog/cat along so they can get vaccinated at the same time.  It's crazy stuff, but older Germans are likely to believe just about anything that comes in the form of a official letter to their front-door.  

The Anastasia Folks

So this story popped up this morning via Focus, and I spent probably an hour reading it......researching the topic, and pondering upon things.  

The topic?  A cult....referring to the 'Anastasia' folks.

So to tell this story, I need to introduce you to the 'Constitutional Protection' agency of Germany.  This works like the American FBI or the ASIO of Australia.  

Their job is to monitor people and organizations deemed a threat.  In Germany, this can be a very varied crowd (tax evaders, terrorists, right-wing radicals, left-wing radicals, anti-capitalists, Nazis, anti-capitalists, religious cults, etc).  

Back around 1996, this Russian guy (Vladimir Megre) wrote this book.....'The Ringing Ciders of Russia: Volume One: Anastasia'.  

It's an odd piece of fiction....made into an advice-book.  Megre is writing the book and having this conversation with this imaginary character (Anastasia), who is into telepathy, the spirit world, and things that you'd typically regard just a tad-bit as cultish. 

The character Anastasia is giving you advice....child upbringing, positive energy, natural food, farm living, etc.  More or less, if you follow the advice here, you live in a very positive world and nothing negative happens. 

It wasn't exactly a book that sold well (at least in the beginning), and folks admit that the writer took to selling the book at subway stations in Moscow.  By word of mouth, the book took off.

Megre writes nine additional books. The series kinda ended in 2010 with the last book. 

So here's the thing....a lot of people have read the book beyond Russia.  A fair number of Germans have also read the book.

The reaction?  Some worries have started up that the book is advocating right-wing type expectations in life.  A German guy (Frank Willy Ludwig) has picked up the emphasis in Germany, and hyped it up to the next level.

Esotericism in the mix?  Well....yeah.  Yoga, mysticism and mediation do mix within this theme.

So these German folks in the Constitutional Protection business view the Anastasia folks as a potential threat.  How many of them?  Unknown....virtually a topic that you can't be sure about.  It might be just a thousand across Germany who've read the book and gotten hyped-up.  It might be ten-thousand.  

The key element here....they are classified as right-wing folks...not occult or religious threats.

You can imagine Germans viewing society today....regarding half the teenagers in Germany as 'losers' or unfocused.  So you read some of these ten books, and start to think....if you'd just focus the kids correctly, society would improve.  

Politically charged-up?  I don't think you can say that yet....but if you had half-a-million Germans hyped-up on the book series....enthusiastic about clean-living, eating home-grown garden items, thrilled about mediation, and pushing for certain political candidates to 'fix' problems....well, that might turn into a mess that you can't control or resolve.  

Note: If you wanted to read all ten books....it's around 2,500-pages.  

Note: The Russian writer (Megre) is looking for a video-production deal (DVD the story and sell on a mass market).  

Worried Germans

 So early this AM....journalists started to view the delivery of the vaccine pallets to regions.  I noticed this story via Focus.

The truck started pull up around 5:05 AM this morning (26th).  So the video started up and hype started.  This warehouse in question....was in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW, NW Germany).

Pallet jack came out....and the ONE crate was unloaded.  Then confusion hype started up via social media.......'that's all?'.

As folks kinda noted....it's a small amount on that pallet. 

Basically, if you've been following the story....the stuff hasn't been fully produced, so it's only a limited amount ready to go right now.

They don't go in detail, but I would think about every three to five days....another truck will pull up at the central warehouse, and dump off another pallet.

So when they say at each vaccination center....the goal is around 1,000 vaccinations a day.....it's mostly because that's the delivery schedule situation figured for each week.  Even if you were capable of doing 15,000 a day....there's just not enough of the stuff 'brewed-up' to go at that rate.

Showing the video of the one pallet being dropped off?  Well....maybe if this had been me in charge of the PR for this....I would have had ten pallets dropped off, but only one box with actual vaccine, and the other nine empty boxes....just for PR effect for the public.

For the weekend, this one pallet video will be shared out and talked about a good bit in the negative sense. 

French Story

 If you follow French news....around two weeks ago (early December)....some group did polling to discover that 46-percent of French people said they wouldn't take the vaccine.

About a week after that news item came out....a ethics-PhD type guy came out with a comment that in this case, you had to reject all people who did not have the vaccination in terms of public transportation (meaning no bus entry/use, or train use).  

This kinda set French folks off.  Its safe to say that they reacted in a pretty harsh way and suggested they wouldn't be that cooperative with this type of rule.

Today, the French health minister did a small public talk and basically said they'd never go making up such a rule.  To be honest, I suspect if you asked the police....they probably said in a blunt way they've plenty of work and didn't want to go challenging people for their 'vaccine card'.

This brings me to this odd discussion item.  Around various European countries....the vaccination isn't selling that well.  In the Netherlands, around 14-percent say 'no way', with around a third of the population saying they want to see a bunch of folks getting it before them.

With the Spaniards?  It's about two-thirds being positive on the vaccination.  With the Brits?  It's around 80-percent.  

Just Something To Think About

 I sat there today....flipping through the German news and there's this one tidbit.....a 30 second piece, and it concerns Covid-19.

The WHO (World Health Organization) announced they are sending a ten-man team (experts they say) to China in January.

Purpose?  Well....they intend to search for the origin of Covid-19.  Basically, they want the bat group and intend to go looking in a thousand-odd caves.  

Yes, a full year into this, and just now....some team is assembled?  It begs questions.

Course, maybe all the bat experts were busy....or off on some sabbatical....or working on some PhD paper on Elephants.  You just don't know.

But then, it begs more questions.  Have the Chinese themselves been looking for the bats in question?  Were the CIA or KGB guys in China searching for them....quietly?  Well, you don't know.  

Will they be dressed up in special gear, bring along their big white-painted SUVs, and stayed at five-star hotels on the edge of the rural areas?

If they find the particular bat?  That's an even bigger question.  

What I think will happen?  At some point in this exploration stage.....they find the 'other' valley, where the Covid-20 bat lives, and accidentally get bit.....bringing the second big virus into society.  

Covid Story

 There is an interesting Covid-19 story that ARD (German public TV, Channel One) put out last night, and it's worth a moment of discussion.

So over in Wolfsburg, Germany....back around nine months ago...forty-seven Germans died of Covid-19 as residents of a retirement home.

The chief prosecutor of the local area (Braunschweig)....had relatives got angry over the whole affair, and they demanded prosecution.

Well...so, nine months of investigating go on and this past day or two....the prosecutor says 'no, there's no case'.

Criminal misconduct?  None.

On official numbers....for a retirement home built for folks with dementia....160 residents and 112 had Covid-19.  Roughly just under half (47) died.

Around Germany, there are various frustrations for the retirement home folks....they tend to die more than any other group.

Germans would like to hold someone responsible but there's no real way to reach this level of 'blame'.

The final word?  I doubt it....there's probably dozens of investigations to be held like this, and they will all end up the same way. 

Germany and Covid-19: 24 December 2020

1.  Occasionally, you have this odd story that comes up and begs more questions.

N-TV this morning had this little short update over a Covid antibodies test done in Munich (large-scale).  They say in early-to-mid November....this test showed results of 3.3-percent of society there having been through Covid-19.  Well...only 1.5-percent of city residents had been registered and had been tested to prove they actually had it.  So it was double the number of people who'd been through the virus in actuality.   

What it generally means?  A fair number of people have a very light version of the virus, with almost no symptoms.  The odds nationally that twice as many people have had it?  It's probably pretty good odds.  

2.  The vaccine being delivered around Germany?  Yes, and under police guard (24-hours a day).  

3.  Number of Germans newly infected in past 24 hours?  24,384.  Number of deaths in past 24 hours?  1,102.

In my regional town (Wiesbaden, 293k residents), total number of infected since day one: 6,558.  Number of deaths in the same period: 104.

4.  The Association of Cities and Municipalities in Germany....stood up and said there's serious issues for the survival of metropolitan areas in Germany, and the federal government needs to plan on billions to be used over the next year. 

5.  There was an interesting full-report off N-TV which talked to one particular region of Germany....the Saxony area (far eastern Germany).  The news crew chatted with the folks that run the crematorium operations.  They are basically running around the clock.

The key thing that they notice is that the bulk of their operations involve folks who passed away from Covid-19 while living in a retirement home.  As they say....relatives come and ask 'why'.  A lot of frustration is directed at people who manage things, and at politicians.  

Travel Chatter

 If you look over business news in Germany today, there's page one chatter over the national airlines....Lufthansa.

So the management folks and the union met, and have ironed out the deal with the pilots.  There had been serious talk of cutting pilots (in a big way).  This was avoided.

The deal, as told by HR (public TV in the region)?

There is a deal which runs through or up to....March 2022.

No pilots are to be cut.  The pilots will do short-time work....meaning taking pay-cuts but staying on the payroll....doing marginal hours.

The loss so far in 2020?  Well....the airline has suffered greatly....over 5-billion Euro lost so far this year.

Getting everyone through the summer the summer of 2021?  More or less.  No one really says much over trip-planning for 2021, and one might suspect the most you'd see is a 50-percent return to normalcy (with the vaccinations as the key part of this change).  

If Germany gets to the 90-percent level with vaccinations and manages some 'rules' on visitors with such....maybe around Christmas-time of 2021....you might start seeing a regular travel situation.  

Petty Crime Story

 At some point last night (Tuesday evening)....some robber-character made an attempt on a sun-tanning studio in Wiesbaden (my local town).  Local coverage telling the story.

The sun-tan female manager had to stand there for several minutes and explain the method of operation. For over twenty years in Germany....you typically walk into a tanning studio....get a chip-card...and load the card with your bank transaction card at the counter.  No cash is involved in this effort usually....so the studios hold virtually no cash.  

This guy was standing there and figuring 'quick-robbery'....pick up 150 Euro real quick for a drug-requirement, and ease on out.  After the explanation was told several times (he just didn't grasp it very well), he quietly left....empty-handed.  Cops are looking for him, but the mask makes this virtually impossible to get anywhere.

A pistol involved?  Well, yeah....that's part of the story as well.  

That's a continual trend now in the city....minor crimes....nickeling and diming people and business operations.  You got one-star thugs working on their drug binge and just hunting the person or store to hit upon. 

Public TV Tax Chatter in Germany

 In the past two weeks, I've essayed two developments on the German TV tax.  The basic background to this.....a serious amount of work had been done to upgrade the tax by 86 Euro cents per month (per house).  The new price would have been 18.36 Euro.  That failed, with the sixteen states voting and one state denying the public TV folks the upgrade.

Yesterday, the public TV folks (ARD, ZDF, and Deutschlandradio) went to court and urged emergency action at the Federal Constitutional Court (down in Karlsruhe).  What they wanted was a ruling that would force the Constitution to be edited, and only a majority of states required....to get the tax upgraded.  

Well....it failed.

The court basically said....where is the emergency?

They didn't say that it was thrown out....just that this wasn't really an emergency action and you could conduct the case in regular court (meaning this could be drawn out to a year or two, before the decision is made).  The court even hinted....if this went in favor of public TV....they could always get financial compensation.

So where this goes?  

If what the public TV folks say is true.....they are running the system with more money going out....rather than coming in (at least in 2021).  The logical position, while in court....would be to limit expenses in 2021.  You'd do that by not bidding on certain sports events, or lessening the number of movies made.  The odds that they will do that?  Unknown.  They might go and procure some loan, getting themselves deeper into debt....just to continue services at the current level....anticipating that the court would resolve this mess by spring of 2022.

The bigger mess approaching?  Well....the CDU Party is openly discussing the idea of forcing public TV to use more commercial activity, and going the private route to some degree.....meaning less taxation upon the public.  The chatter is that this will be a top level campaign discussion thing for the 2021 national election (in the fall).  

If the public TV folks didn't do any cuts, and just borrowed.....to continue operations at the same level....it's a fair amount of risk for the future.  My humble guess is that some level of cuts are being planned out and fewer sports events will be covered.  

Terror Story

 There's a short piece off N-TV news tonight here in Germany....police raid item from Berlin.

What N-TV says so far....cops started out early in the AM today....after a 15-year-old Islamic terror suspect.

The 'kid' is regarded...at least on evidence suspected so far...as planning a bomb attack in Berlin-Marzahn (planning stage only).

Background?  From Syria originally.

Evidence?  Well....that's the funny thing about the effort....nothing was found (no explosives' or even a trace).  What the cops have are a group of cellphones/laptops.

All bogus or dreamed-up BS?  Well....the cops will hate to admit that in the end.  You probably won't hear anything about this episode for at least ten days.  

Cold Spots in Germany for Covid-19?

 Well....yeah....it's an odd discussion that Focus magazine brought up today.

There are around seven districts around Germany where Covid is just not that big of a deal.

Rostock, Cuxhaven, Wittmund, Emden, Plon, Uelzen, and Schleswig-Flensburg.

Reasons?  Unknown.  Only speculation. 

One topic of discussion among the seven....low-population density.  

Beyond that....it's simply guessing how you have a region with low numbers for the virus.  

Where are the British?

 It's a bit comical, but very serious.  I drifted over to the German public TV network (ARD) this morning, and they had a brief news piece over Switzerland.

So, starting this morning....the Swiss authorities are highly concerned over British people who are in Switzerland.  In simple terms...the police are hunting for them.

The deal?  If you are British and entered the country after the 14th of December, you need to go into isolation and quarantine....for 10 days.  No outdoors stuff, no bar activity, no dining out.  

If you laid down a chunk of cash to fly in or drive down.....to ski through the holiday period as a Brit?  Well....you are screwed with this 'order'.  The ski business ends, period.

How many Brits are we talking about?  The suggestion is roughly 10,000 but no one is really sure about this.

If you had some Swiss policeman at the door and giving you the ten-day order.....then what?  The vacation from that point is shot.  Why would you stay?

The odds of you ever returning to Switzerland?  Some folks would look upon this treatment in a negative way. 

The odds that 10,000 are also in the German Alps?  Well....it's best not to bring up this subject.

But this brings up a key part of the discussion....once you get pissed-off and asking yourself about how to manage a screwed-up trip....how exactly do you get the hell out of Switzerland or Europe....back to England?

Some would look over the Swiss paperwork dropped off by the police and then tell the girlfriend....screw this, pack the bags and lets get into the car.  They'd escape out of Switzerland and head toward the Chunnel.  Would the Chunnel even be open?  Unknown.  A German ferry deal?  Maybe, but I'd suspect they are shut-down.  

So you'd be left in a pretty crappy position....no way to stay....no way to go.  

Covid Chatter

 Scientifically speaking....against the new variant of Covid-19....is the current vaccine effective?  Unknown.  Biontech is honest about it since last night....they think it is, but need basically two weeks of testing to reach a conclusion.

The odds here?  I would imagine they come back and say that the current vaccine (rated 95-percent effective against version 1.0 of Covid-19)....is probably 90-percent or so effective against version 2.0 of this Covid mutation.

Things would go forward and folks would be mostly satisfied.  They would not be so satisfied if this were only 50-percent effective.  

But behind that....knowing that another modification is probably just three months away....they will come to admit that next version of the mutating virus will be 80-to-85 percent effective.

At some point around early summer, the government will then come to admit that this is a yearly thing on the vaccination business, and the next production cycle starts in October, and next wave of shots begin in November (my humble guess).

So the reality of this progress is that it'll be a regular flu-like event each year, and permanent centers will be developed with people getting on a schedule and everything (school, travel, etc) will be tied to the cycle. 

A worry factor?  No.  But when the day comes in a decade or so....that you could transmit this to horses, swine, dogs, cats, or cows....then your worry factor will escalate a good bit.  A false chatter?  No, I noticed this morning that the Danes are going back to look how those minks got the virus, and it's probably going to open serious science chatter.  

More TV/Radio Chatter

 In the past month, I've essayed a bit over the German TV tax and where things are stalled.  So, more to the story.

Things were going along a certain path where the tax would go from 17.50 Euro a month per house.....to 18.36 Euro a month per house.  Everything was set up for the next five years....for another 1.5 billion Euro to be in the pot of the public TV/radio managers.  Then the last piece came along....all sixteen states had to agree to this.  Saxony-Anhalt said no, and that pretty much blocked the whole thing.

Now?  The public TV crowd has gone to lawyers, and figures to sue enough to get the Constitutional Court to order a change to the law.  What they might do?  Probably one of two things.....say that a majority of the 16 states need only agree to this (requiring a change in the Constitution and a full year to accomplish), or say it's written in stone....so don't waste time suing the federal government. 

This morning, via Focus, there's a piece updating the story, with the Premier-President of Saxony-Anhalt (Haseloff-CDU) discussing the matter.  He makes an interesting point.

Haseloff looks squarely at the ARD/ZDF TV empire and says that they haven't advanced much at all since unification, and have little to no understanding of eastern Germany.

He even makes the comment at some point of suggesting that when something is reported out of eastern Germany.....it's almost done as a foreign report (like reporting on Czech or Greece, in my humble words).  Over the past five years, there's numerous occasions when I've seen this type of reporting and felt amused that eastern Germany is treated like some brat-kid by the public TV journalists.

Over the past week, if you observe political chatter, there's some thoughts by people that it's time to drag public TV/radio into a room and privatize them to a great extent.  Making this a 2021 political topic?  That's probably the greatest fear by the public TV/radio people.

Among the 18-to-30 year old range....I would take a guess that near 50-percent of them are fed up with the TV/radio tax, and get little out of the ARD/ZDF/public radio situation.  The hints over the past decade to reorganize and slim-down?  Most people would suggest that they've seen no change at all.

The odds that the court will go with the idea of laying the 'stones' to benefit public TV/radio?  I'd give it a 80-percent chance.  But if the election of 2021 is aimed at tearing down the public TV/radio 'empire'....that's probably going to shift massive weight on public appeal against the TV tax. 

Fireworks Story

 Fireworks sales would typically start next Monday in Germany, but with the forbidden nature (due to Covid-19)....that won't occur.

Well....yesterday, up around Kassel here in Hessen....the fire department and police got a call.  An explosion had occurred at some apartment.

They get there, and there's this guy....all wounded-up.  Damage to the apartment is fair.

What the news folks say is that the guy was making up his own creation of fireworks....since you can't buy them.  

Yes, the guy went the alternate route.  He's injured but will survive this episode.

More folks like him?  Wouldn't surprise me if 10,000 Germans were busy in their house, basement or garage...making home-made fireworks.

Crystal Ball: 2021?

 This is my list of predictions for 2021:

1.  German national election?  Basing priorities upon Covid-19, dumping the TV tax, and the economy....the CDU gets 42-percent on the vote, with the FDP near 9-percent, and that is the new coalition for the next four years.  

Journalists are shocked at how various members of the Green Party, SPD and Linke Party walked off and voted for the CDU...wanting the TV tax ended.  

2.  The BREXIT 'gimmick' is deemed a failure.  PM Johnson walks off by mid-summer....fired by a no-confidence vote.  

3.  By the end of 2021....Macron of France is really viewed as a 'loser' and the 2022 national election is about finding some new fresh face.

4.  Another Spanish legislative election is forced by December of 2021.  The results are mixed, and likely pave the way for another election by the end of 2022.

5.  Some German journalists realize by mid-2021 that ARD/ZDF (public TV) are going for almost ten days straight without any US commentary or criticism.  About a quarter of all Germans admit they can't think of the new President's name. 

6.  The next round of Covid-19 vaccinations, for the newer 'model' or more robust British version....will be scheduled for release by July 2021.  Just about everyone who got the shot in December 2021/January 2022.....are immediately put on the list....even before the current group has wrapped up its shot schedule.

7.   German health authorities openly discuss/promote the idea of opening the door to 12,000 German-speaking Mexican nurses each year....to start at the fall of 2021. The Mexican students are shocked at the job offer, salary, and potential upgrade in life.  Then they get a bit more shocked over the German language situation.  

8.  Virtually no nation outside of the EU will accept EU travelers unless they show the vaccination slip.  

9.  Roughly 18-percent of all Germans refuse the Covid-19 vaccination....as of the end of 2021.  Some chatter has started up about forcing the issue, but Doctors hint that they will refuse to participate in this game.

10.  I expect most all Germans to have a limited vacation option list (strictly Germany in 50-percent of all travels) for 2021's summer vacation period.  

Masks Masks Masks

 Around four months ago here in Germany, I started to notice this odd trend.  You'd be in a grocery parking lot and walking toward the store....when you looked down and noticed a mask on the ground (dirty, wet, and obviously there for a day or two).  Probably dropped by some customer walking out of the store or by the car as they were loading their purchases into the car.

Virtually every month....masks on the ground goes up a notch.

Last week, I parked in an exceptionally large parking lot in Wiesbaden.  Around the car and walking up to the front-door....I probably noticed at least fifteen masks.  

Later in the week, I went to a mid-sized grocery operation, and probably counted ten masks on the parking lot pavement while I walked to the entry.

Most of these operations have a cleaning 'sweeper' who comes in once a week and cleans the lot at night after after everyone has left.

I would make a guess in a big lot....at least two-hundred masks a week get dropped on the ground in an average parking lot.  I stood there last month and observed some guy drop his mask....look for a second (debating on whether to even pick it up), and by the 3rd second....said 'no', and left there.  It was like....is that still clean/sanitary, and the answer can only be 'no'.

At some point in 2021.....I expect the Greta-kids or the environmentalists to get hyped up about this business, and demand people recycle, or pick-up their masks.  It'll be some challenge to the public and folks shaking their head (they hate the mask but wear it because of the virus).  

Green Party New Leadership Emerging

 If you followed German news over the weekend....some breakout story started up (a page two type) where the Green Party Chancellor-candidate for 2021 was openly discussed, and it's being suggested that it WON'T be Robert Habeck.

For almost 18 months, there's been suggestions here and there.....Robert Habeck is the 'all-in-one' candidate and most likely person to emerge.  

What the news folks started to suggest....Habeck is too 'wooden-like' and that the current number two at the German Green Party....Annalena Baerbock....is emerging as the more likely Chancellor-candidate.

So to lay out this landscape....I'll offer four observations:

1.  The Greens have pumped things up over the past three years (since the last election) and now are the number two party in Germany....easily showing 20-percent in the polls, and having taken most of that from the SPD  Party (weakest stage for them 'ever').

2.  Since 2018, Habeck has been a front-guy for the party and invited to various forums and TV shows.  Most everyone in Germany recognizes the guy and he does have general appeal.  

3.  On the 'wooden' nature?  Well....yeah, he's just not animated.  There's political appeal there, but to suggest that he's a Chancellor-type person?  No. Baerbock probably has real animation, but rarely gets TV forum invitations.  

4.  The big goal of the Greens is to square away 22-to-25 percent and squeeze the heck out of the SPD Party voters.  In this scenario, while the CDU probably will win, there's only two scenarios where the Greens aren't invited to be the junior partner in the coalition.  I think Baerbock's goal is to remove the alternate scenarios and ensure the Greens are the junior partner in the next government partnership.

As for Habeck finally having competition?  Maybe he didn't ever view this episode coming around, or that Baerbock would just be happy with a party-boss job and maybe a minister job in the CDU-Green coalition.  

Covid Woes This Morning

 First, it is true that some alert went out between 7 PM and 10 PM, to halt all incoming flights from the UK into Germany.  Several didn't get the word.  At least one flight landed in Hannover with passengers forced into a hall with cots and to wait till this morning when testing teams could test all of them for the virus.

Via Focus reporting....Denmark, Italy and the Netherlands are now reporting the Covid variant....so it's already arrived in Europe.  Germany?  So far, the authorities say it's not active.  One might suspect it's a bit too late to stop the UK spread, and it'll be in Germany within the next couple of days.

Some discussions going on in the state of NRW over whether Christmas masses will be held in churches.  The authorities are leaning toward a shutdown of the churches on this occasion.  Some churches (limited number) are already doing a cancellation announcement. 

Germany and Covid-19: 21 December 2020

 1.  Yesterday, after reviewing a fair amount of commentary from the UK, US and Germany....I came to realize the greatest fear from virus experts.  They expect one day for 'something' to arrive, that you could not build a vaccination for.  In simple terms....whatever bad stuff this was going to bring....you could not make society immune.  

It's an odd theory to suggest, but I noticed several virus PhD folks laying it out there.

2.  This mutated virus chatter?  Via Focus, it's being reported that it's popped-up in Italy.  So it's too late to contain in the UK.  

3.  Euro-tunnel and the port of Dover are shut down to prevent the mutated virus from getting to Europe.

4.  As of last night, 1.5-million Germans had contracted the virus since day one.  For deaths over the past 24 hours, 252 Germans were reported dead.

5.  The German government 'woke-up' at some point yesterday, and suddenly grasped that a fair number of Germans are on 'holiday' in South Africa (suggesting that they aren't really tracking Germans as they come and go out of airports).  This new variant?  Yeah, it's in South Africa presently.  Getting back from South Africa to Germany?  Presently....to the 7th of January.....just about impossible. So if you were there and had a seat reserved to return on like the 2nd of January....it won't happen.  You might actually be there several additional weeks.

A repeat of the spring where thousands of Germans were stuck in places like Australia and South Africa?  Well....yeah, it's beginning to look the same way.

6.  What the Brits are officially saying over the new variation of Covid-19?

If you use Sky News, the comments go this way.....on being a bit more contagious...the risk definitely goes up.  The transmission factor?  70-percent improved.

Several Brit news sources say it's been around since September.  Why this hasn't been openly discussed back in October or November?  Unknown.

There is extremely strong belief that the current vaccine will work on this variant.

Next Ban: UK?

 Well, it's pretty well hyped via N-TV this afternoon.  Chancellor Merkel has some plan in the works for the EU (getting to react is a bit drawn out), but Germany will halt UK planes landing and the travel business is going to be locked down.

Timing of this new ban?  Midnight tonight (Sunday).

This would run to the 6th of January, but could be extended.

How many Germans would be left 'stranded' in the UK?  Unknown.  Nor is that any real government chatter on how they'd 'save' this group in the next day or two....getting back to Germany.

Traveling by ferry or the Chunnel?  Well....no one is much of anything, which is the comical side of this story.  They seem to be pre-occupied with just airplane travel.

Other European countries doing the same?  Some are, with varying rules.  This is why it'd be a lot smarter to have just one simple policy via the EU.

All due to the new variant of the virus?  Well....it seems that way.

The worst part of this situation?  You could have 40k Germans sitting in London....who'd normally be on a plane....the 22th or 23th.....getting back to Germany.  They are going to be asking serious questions about their journey, and the only thing that Berlin can say....'tough luck'.

Update: name for this new deal?  B.1.1.7.  

According to the government....only cargo planes, or empty Lufthansa planes will be allowed to leave the UK and land in Germany in this period.  

Germany and Covid-19: 20 December 2020

 1.  There was a brief note or two this morning via our public TV in Hessen (HR) over railway travel.  

What the Bahn folks say in Hessen is that since the lockdown (early November) has occurred....trains are occupied with around 20 to 30 percent of the normal crowd onboard....meaning way underused. 

The regional folks (Wiesbaden/Frankfurt) for the Bahn?  They are saying for 2020....the shortfall on ticket sales is a quarter of a billion Euro.  No one much is suggesting recovery is in the cards for 2021.

2.  Deaths over the past 24 hours?  Ending last night, 575.  

3.  I sat and watched a N-TV piece this morning....covering what the Brits say is a new variant of the Corona virus.  

The key feature?  Well....it's not a good thing.  The Brit science guys say this 'model' is 70-percent MORE contagious than the normal Covid.  

In this case, if you get this variant....you will likely get a more robust case of Covid.  Effective nature of the vaccine?  Unknown.  Just by the words spoken, you get the impression that a minimum of three or four months of research and testing will be required.  

This discovery is probably the driving force for the maximum shutdown you see in the UK presently.  

Germany and Covid-19: 19 December 2020

 1.  Some chatter from the Corona 'experts' this morning in Germany...discussing the idea that the hard-lockdown that the country has signed up to and is to run to 10 January.....will be extended out to 5 April (day after Easter) 2021.  

Note, it's not the government talking about this but the virus experts.  

Right now, I'd say around 70-percent of the public is signed up and positive to run the lockdown to 10 January, and maybe even to early February.  If you were to approach that crowd and say Easter?  I'm not sure about this being widely accepted.  The fact that at least two state elections would be held in this period?  This would bring other points up.

2.  Some chatter from the Health Ministry....final details on the priority listing....four groups.  Vast majority of the nation (probably near 50 million) are in the fourth group. 

No way that this would conclude prior to late summer.  One topic which is NOT discussed anywhere....the next round of vaccinations after that.  None of the companies are really signing up and saying the shot is good for 365 days or for 180 days.  It might not be shocking to wake up around May of 2021 and be told that your next round of vaccinations will start in January of 2022.  

3.  Total dead since day one in Germany?  25,277.  Total dead in my local town of Wiesbaden (293k residents)?  95

4.  Long lines being reported at the Covid-19 test center at the Frankfurt Airport, as people prepare for long-distance travel in the next couple of days. To enter most countries now....you need a slip that shows a negative test outcome.  Some folks were reporting a four-hour wait to get the test done.

5.  N-TV had a fairly indepth report this morning over a unique Covid-19 topic.

The research came from an American team who looked at this small group of folks who seem to show a positive Covid-test result....weeks and months after the supposed infection (like it never went away).

It was said up to this point, that Covid could not 'write itself' into the DNA of people.  What the research folks suggest now is that in extreme and limited cases....the virus genome wrote itself into the DNA of people.  

It is a rather long discussion and more research required.  Add to it....it's a fairly small and limited number of people who've had this unique situation develop.  Why only a small group?  Unknown.

Public TV Chatter

 German federal elections are often based on just two or three issues, which drive the public voting trend.

So today, this topic came out.....a page five type story, which won't be discussed by the public TV news people.

The CDU Party (right-of-center, and Merkel's team) have a white-paper, which discusses this crazy idea.....pushing public TV in Germany into a downsized position and mostly privatized.

The basic idea?  The paper suggests that public TV (and radio) go back to the core values thing....covering culture, information and community/state information.  

They aren't suggesting a big drop in the TV tax (currently 17.50 Euro a month per house), but you get the hint that some kind of drop would occur.

The production of TV movies and the various shows seen on ARD/ZDF?  Unless they worked up a privatized deal, with commercials....they would stop.

Sports?   That would probably stop, and flip to private channels only.

The radio community?  You might see jazz, opera and news go on but the rest would be forced into some kind of commercial support.

Where this is going?  Lets face it....probably around 50-percent of the general public (from both the left and right political sides) are fed up with the public TV tax, and the marginal offerings.  A lot of these people are under the age of 30.

If they made this a four-star topic in the 2021 national election?  You might be able to get the CDU voting pattern up to around 40-percent....taking votes from the left-side of the spectrum.

The Greens forced to support the public TV folks?  That might be a negative position for them.

As for ARD/ZDF chatter?  I'm guessing they are fairly angry over the discussion and want to flip this election against the CDU folks.  

The amusing thing to this discussion....no one would ever suspect it'd come up in an election year and be a top three topic.  

First World Versus Second World versus Third World

As a kid, I grew up in a rural region that still operated with a community phoneline (meaning six to eight folks on the same line).  In terms of a legit grocery....there was a single four-star grocery approximately 15 miles away, and then ten local grocery operations that you'd consider two-star by today's standards.  

In terms of safety and hygiene....you always felt completely safe (even at 11 PM at night), and getting food poisoning (at least in the 1970s) was next to impossible.   The cost of living wasn't crazy, but then the most expensive 'wild-item' to buy was a color TV.  

In my view at that point....this this was the 'first-world'.  I had high school teachers who'd gone off to Pacific Islands for WW II and describe in great detail....the third-world nature.  We had neighbors who gone off to Italy in 1944, and would describe marginal living conditions (at least in their mind), to which we always seemed 'blessed' by the standards that we viewed locally.

I left that landscape in 1977, and traveled around the US, Panama, Europe, and over the past decade have seen Hong Kong, South Africa, Iceland, Australia, Singapore and New Zealand.  In essence, I've been to the first world, the second world, and the third world. 

So onto the essay of the world today, and how things have changed.

First, you can go to Cyprus and find better roads in existence than in most areas of Detroit.

Second, you feel safer on the streets of Dresden than you do on the streets of Seattle.

Third, you trust the police of Singapore way more than the police of most most major US urban areas.

Fourth, the airport in Istanbul is probably more modernized and appealing than JFK Airport in NY City.

Fifth, the railway system in Den Haag or Amsterdam....is ten times better than any city in the US.

Sixth, the 'welcome-appeal' in Italy is almost shocking....something that you'd rarely find except in some areas of the south (of the US).

Seven, the odds of you getting food-poisoning in Prague or Barcelona?  Nearly impossible.  You go and review food inspections in Tucson, or Nashville?  You just shake your head over how some restaurants failed their inspection.

Eighth, on taxes?  Well....that's where you could find yourself in Texas or Florida...feeling fairly happy about the money left in your pocket.  Or you could end up in the Netherlands where 52-percent of your check is going to state taxes.  

Ninth, yes....there are areas of Iowa where people still leave the front door unlocked, and there are areas of Germany where almost every basement has bars over the windows, and even half the ground-floor windows are barred up.

Tenth, a vehicle inspection in Germany might make you grit your teeth because they've rated five problems on your five-year old car as requiring 'resolution' before getting the two-year inspection sticker.  The vehicle inspection in Louisiana might just mean a 60-second review and the worst you might get dinged upon is a muffler issue.  

The thing is....we've all reached the point where we examine first world situations, and rate them against a second world group, and even a third world group.

There's no doubt that I feel utterly safe in Wiesbaden, Germany.  I can walk 99-percent of the streets even at 11 PM (the train-station 'quarter' might be the only area to avoid).  On food and drink quality, it's virtually impossible to find food poisoning.  In terms of coffee and cake quality, it's hard to find any place better.  On railway travel and autobahn conditions....they outpace virtually everyone else.  But then the cost of these things, along with taxes....makes it a tough decision.

Three years ago, I traveled around most of New Zealand for eighteen days.  I felt like I could park myself there and stay....after just ten days.  

Five years ago, I spent five days in Iceland...generally surprised how it rated first world, but I rated the roads three degrees less than the worst roads in Alabama.  

The problem with this type of analysis....you end up with trade-offs.  You start to prioritize things....shocking yourself that police protection might be in your top twenty issues.  Or you might find that some nations are extremely proactive in protecting your health....to the degree that you'd rather they spend less effort.  Or you might find that some wonderful country simply has way too many poisonous snakes (like Australia for example). 

In the end, we are nomads in search of some paradise that simply doesn't exist.  Or we arrive at some location and see the paradise-label....but wake up seven years later to admit that it's paradise-lite and missing something.  

Just something to ponder about.    

Statue 'Fever'

 Back around August of this year, I sat and read a German commenting via Twitter....that all this Covid-19 stuff would eventually end up as a memorial/statue/park project by the German federal government.  At the time, I laughed.

Well....in today's news via ARD (public TV, Channel One)....this idea was commented upon by the federal government folks.  They intend to start a path to some memorial or statue deal.

The "deceased should not be forgotten" is the central theme to this.  

Where?  Unknown but they hint it has to be a central location....meaning it won't be in Hamburg, Berlin, or Munich.  

How much planning is taking place now? They word it this way....because of the pandemic going on....they really can't spend time on this statue/memorial stuff.  Hint, they kinda mean that they are quietly discussing this behind closed doors. 

My script for this?  Kassel.  Reason?  A49, A44, A38, and A7 all kinda merge there in the 'region'.

The Kassel Airport area (about 7 miles north of Kassel)?  Perfect location, large parking lot there already, tons of space.

What kind of memorial?  Well....they might go and build some wall with all the names of the dead.  Or they could just put up a statue of the Covid-19 'bug' getting smashed by a 30-meter tall Chancellor Merkel statue....with Merkel holding a hammer.

You could go the gardens route....just fixing up a 500 meter by 500 meter area where people can arrive and walk around to talk with other people....about their feelings over the virus, and the ban-rules.

Spanish flu memorials in Germany?  None.  To be honest, they always referred to the 1918 'bug' as the 'Russian Pest'....suggesting that the Russians brought it upon Germany (at least they felt that way in 1918/1919).  It's hard to imagine a pest-memorial anyway.  

In the US?  There are a couple of stone slabs which mark the Spanish flu, but nothing of a magnificent type.

Is this a waste of time and resources?  Most regular people would probably suggest that.  A handful would probably suggest they'd rather see a statue for 'Yogi' (the national soccer coach), or a 3-meter tall statue for Barak Obama, or some grand designed stone creation to celebrate the creation of the EU.

In the 1800s, statues and memorials were a common thing in Germany, and about every decade....a major town would go through a new phase....throw up five or six statues with celebrations, and talk alot about the 'greater good'.

So settle back and prepare for some chatter about this in 2021, and how they found 22-million Euro to design something to remember Covid-19 by (while the rest of us just try to forget the virus and the ban-rules).  

Five Years to Reach Judgement

 There's a page-three type story that I viewed this morning via N-TV here in Germany.  It won't be discussed much and most Germans have zero memory of the event.

Back in August of 2015....there was this Muslim guy who boarded a train in Brussels....heading toward Paris.  

The guy was armed with a carpet knife, a pistol and a automatic rifle.  The pistol and rifle were illegal procured.  

His intention?  To kill as many passengers on the train as possible.  You can look at the 200-odd people onboard, and figure that as a minimum....at least sixty should have died that day on the train.

Well....things went wrong.

The gun jammed (he didn't really know how to unjam it).  Maybe it was a cheap weapon or just bad luck.

Then as this moment occurred....three American guys (military background) went into action and took the guy down.  There's probably a sixty-second period where where lives hung in the balance, and they weren't going to let this guy do his thing. 

In the end....no one died on this train (lot of blood but no deaths).

The court case finally ended this week (taking five years).  The Moroccan guy (31 years old) is going off for 'life'.  With the danger intent, I kinda doubt that they will ever find a reason to release the guy.

It did take an exceptional long period to run this case, and I'm guessing that a mental review board did the five-star mental exam, but could not find anything crazy about the guy.

The amount of luck in this episode?  Having the three Americans in that cabin....having the gun to jam....having this guy with minimum training...the list goes on and on.  It is one of those odd things where you needed some element of luck to save 200-odd people.  

Vaccination Strategy

 In roughly ten days, the vaccination business in Germany will start up.  Right now, the priority system is not worded in concrete.  About two weeks ago....some PhD guys sat down and drew up a six-level priority system....more or less, as a suggestion.  The bulk of society (42-odd million) would have been in category six and probably need invited until April to participate.

This morning, I viewed N-TV news and a new discussion had started up, with the Minister of Health (Spahn).

In his mind, there would be three categories for people to fit into.

1st level:  Anyone in Germany over 80 years old, and their retirement home maintainers/nurses.  Nurses who were around high-risk people....also got into this level.

Just my humble view...but this is a more difficult process because you need to send the teams out to each retirement home or rural region, and do it on-site.  You are probably talking about four weeks to sign off all of these people in Germany.

2nd level:  This is the 70 years old or older group.  With these people....anyone who has the risk of developing a serious disease (probably indicating folks with diabetes, COPD, or AIDs).  They also grouped homeless shelter people and asylum folks into this level.  

3rd level: Basically everyone else.

Timing for the 3rd level?  I would imagine that you'd reach this group in late February.  

Kinda late in the game for this type of planning?  Well, yeah....this is stuff that should have been ironed out in July/August.  

If issues develop?  It's best not to bring up this topic of discussion.  

Is There Any European Country Preventing Press Freedom?

 Over the past year or two....the EU or pro-EU folks have suggested this.  To the suggestion....I'd ask where and how.  You simply don't see that.

What you do see....is more and more news outlets (TV, radio, internet, magazines and newspapers) who have staked out a position, and spent a fair amount of time explaining their logic.  Then you find fewer and fewer people who buy into the statement, the logic, or the dramatics of the discussion.

I'm not suggesting the pro-EU people are failing, but their arguments are being persuaded at a level which you'd define in some cases as juvenile-thinking.  

Intellectual failure?  More or less.

This is the amusing part of the story.  It doesn't matter if you talk about more regulation, more taxes, more migration, more immigrants, more controls....selling this to the general public of any European country....gets to being fairly tough.  Either you have a master salesman, or you have a chaotic chit-chat forum situation....which you tend to mute half the time.

The public TV crowd of various countries now hyping up media control?  It's generally being suggested, but you can't find any real evidence other than some public TV networks having financial limits put upon them, or people simply refusing to buy news magazines or newspapers.  In the newspaper case.....it's simple facts that they don't sell as well as they did in the 1950s/1960s.  

People not watching the public forums on public TV?  Well....just in the age group of 15-to-30....no one is interested or entertained by these discussion groups.  It doesn't matter if you bring up the Netherlands, Germany, or Austria.   The idea that you could flip on German public TV and get eight hours a week now of forum chatter, which half the topics really don't interest even a third of the population....says something about the direction taken.

Press freedom being challenged?  I would suggest the other problem....so much freedom, and so much chatter....that people frankly....don't give a damn.  They don't believe the slant or angle of the discussion....so they either flip the channel to a Danish crime drama, or some Japanese Animi cartoon with lesbian warriors fighting sea creatures. 

Health Chatter

 I often put up data comparisons....to start up a discussion.

One of the poorer societies in existence in the early part of the 1900s in Europe....was Sweden.  

One of the curious pieces to their national history is the death number from the 1930s (high) to the mid-1950s.  Lifestyles improved....medical establishments were in more communities, and sanitation/hygiene got better.

A fair amount of discussion in this period relates to deficiency diseases, better antibiotics, and infectious diseases being erdicated. 

Then you go from the mid-1950s....upward, to around 1987.  There are varying reasons given on this odd trend.

Some reasons relate to an improving lifestyle, with more cash for booze, drugs, and 'excitement'.  

Toss in chronic diseases showing up more....more cancer than in previous generations, and heart-related issues showing up (better lifestyles or more indulgent lifestyles were becoming a problem).

So in the early 1990s....another trend started up (a downward situation).  Chief reasons given?  More health advice....less fatty food on the table....more emphasis on cutting smoking....etc.

Swedish historians will often chat on the 'old Sweden' versus the 'new Sweden'.  It's no longer the 'ugly-sister' of Europe.

Trying to reach some logical conversation on Sweden, comparisons to other European countries and Covid-19?

Well....good luck.  

Germans (for years) have jokingly said that Swedes practice social distancing as a routine part of their daily life.  It's hard to find Swedes prior to Covid-19 who were within six feet of each other (at least the myth goes this way) and having a conversation.  

Swedes will boast over their bout of flu from 1966, or the great flu of 1988, or the 5-star flu of 1993.  These personal history lessons are like a short-epic-novel and you generally have to discount half of the story told.  

Add to this discussion....roughly 87-percent of the people (10-plus million) live in 1.5-percent of land territory.  This means that around 1.3-million of the public live in 98.5 percent of Sweden...the rural side.  In an entire day....from this 1.3-million.....'Sven' might only meet twelve people, and he knows all twelve by their first name.  So getting Covid-19 might be next to impossible for that 1.3-odd million Swedes.  

If you go and pull up the data sheets for individual regions of Sweden?  Well....using the statista page....from the top three urban regions, you see the high numbers.  Then you get into the lesser regions, and the numbers of infections/deaths drop drastically. 

The fact that tourism into Sweden doesn't match up to places like Italy or the UK?  Well....yeah, that's another part of this story.  You can put the statistical odds of Swedes going out of the country (especially in 2020) and they simply didn't get exposed to the problem like you'd see in France or Spain.

Its an interesting discussion, but it doesn't really go anywhere.

German and Covid-19: 17 December 2020

 1.  There was a study released yesterday (University of Leipzig) which discussed the number of Germans 'eager' to get the vaccination.  Eight months ago....almost 80-percent of Germans were willing to get the shot.  Today?  The university team discovered it's barely 50-percent.  

This becoming a salesmanship thing?  It wouldn't shock me if by late-January...the vaccination centers have one-third of their appointments open and few people getting it.

For a fair number of Germans, I think the logic is....wait four to six months and see if issues are noted....then take the vaccination.  

2.  The vaccinations staying voluntary?  The German government held a press conference and stated that they hoped that enough people took the shot and helped to lessen the virus.  The voluntary nature flipping over to mandatory?  The government has held this as a reserve-position.  They might be able to force the issue on police, the medical establishment, etc.  Beyond that, I would have my doubts. 

3.  680 deaths were reported last night, over the past 24 hours.  Highest level since day one....from across Germany.  

4.  From my regional state (Hessen), the government is viewing a plan to call for help from the Bundeswehr (German Army).  The issue?  Retirement homes where the staff members/caretakers are ill with Covid-19.  I'll admit....it's not the kind of mission that German Army members would take on.  The hint in the wording is that they'd deploy into the retirement centers....physically staying there (to avoid more Covid issues) for a period of time (figure two to four weeks while caretakers get well).  I don't think the Army will turn down the request, but it's going to be a weird mission.

5.  It's kinda emphasized now....while they will relax some ban-rules for Christmas....they WON'T relax the rules for New Year's Eve (Silvester).

6.  There was an interesting piece off N-TV this morning....covering energy use in Germany over the past year.

Energy consumption over the past twelve months fell by 8.7-percent.  Chief reason?  Covid-19.  This relates to people being forced to stay home for an extended period, and some industry being completely shutdown.

People happy over C02 production going down?  Well....yeah.  If you are a Greta-supporter or environmentalist, this was a super-positive announcement.

Nuke energy in the production of power for 2020?  Only 6-percent.  Renewable energy production for the year?  A lot less than you'd think.....17-percent.  

A return to normal in 2021?  I would imagine the answer is yes.

7.  Official announcement by the government (at least reported by N-TV)....vaccinations start on 27 December.   

8.  Brief discussion today on N-TV over the German fireworks industry.  Because of the ban for New Year's Eve.....massive economic fallout coming.  Bankruptcy wave anticipated.  Effort by the government to 'save' them or 'gift' them money to starve off bankruptcy?  So far, nothing.

Part of this discussion centers on the anti-fireworks agenda folks, and their happiness that the industry dies off.  What they don't grasp is that Chinese companies will march in....stake out positions and continue selling in various areas of Germany.  

Soccer Chatter

 For years, while living around the Kaiserslautern area, I followed soccer to some degree.  The local club (FCK)....had a long history in the Bundesliga (the top league).  It's a club that has been around for over a hundred years, and has a major arena (big enough for 50,000 people).

From the early 1960s to 1996....FCK was 'locked' into the top league.

Around 1996....things started to fall apart.

The club has gone through the 2nd level league, and currently resides in the 3rd level league.  

Right now?  It's on pace to have a losing season....which means you get pushed into a no-name regional league.  You start to reach entry tickets of five-Euro....meaning there's no profit for the arena folks.  On a good day.....you might have 4,000 fans show up for regional-type games (you can imagine this scene in a 50k seat stadium).

This is one of the odd parts of the soccer business....if you really fail year after year....you keep getting pushed deeper and deeper into the mess. It's not a business model that you can plan much around or anticipate next season upon. 

Vaccination Chatter

 I sat and watched a German public news piece in the last week, where they had a review of a vaccination center....describing their process...how reservations would work....effort by the staff.

Since then, I've kinda sat there and pondered over this 'image'.  

Maybe it's the 22-odd years in the military, but this is a bit of a weird set-up that they've demonstrated.  

There's private cabin (probably a dozen of these) and some waiting area (maybe for fifty-odd people....chairs spread two meters (6 ft) apart.

Their intention, after you get to the front-door and 'Huns' (the reservation-checker or door-guard, whichever title you prefer)....to proceed to some 'Gerta' station where paperwork will be produce your slip.  Then it appears a number will be issued and you sit to wait.  

They didn't get into waiting times....I'm just assuming with the reservation business in effect....this can't be more than 20 minutes of pausing.

But then you go to a private cabin.  By the brief TV talk....it sounds like they want to spend five to ten minutes with you and talking over the vaccination/effects/etc.

I'm probably used to the US military style....just line up thirty guys, and just get this done with the thirty of us in fifteen minutes, without a lot of drama or chit-chat.

The more you sit and talk about consequences or side-effects....it just gets me nauseous, and I'm liable to puke up my morning pastry and coffee.

The need to go into fifteen details about the Covid-19 vaccination?  Based on 2020 so far, I've probably learned over 300 facts about the virus and the vaccine.  I know the 9 types of mask for the virus.  I can spot good social distancing or bad social distancing in 3 seconds.  I am now a pretty good authority on a 'dry' cough or a 'wet' cough (a 'dry' cough by Markus the grocery clerk can get me out of the store in 3 seconds flat).  

I'm not whining over the German vaccination deal....but I see this chat-chat at the private cabin business to be a waste of time.  Course, if 6-percent of folks go into a panic-attack and collapse as they get the shot.....maybe there's a good reason for the cabin.  

Paris Story

 It's just something of a page three story, which you can be amused about.

The French authorities came up and discovered in the city of Paris....within the 'departments' that make up city government (16 total four-star managers or executives)....the city mayor and city council had gone and hired 11 different women for the executive-level jobs of the city.

The French authorities then went and pulled out the regulation book...which kinda says in French bureaucratic 'lingo'....you can't have an overabundance of female executives.  There's actually a fine that they hand out....so they went to the fine (100k Euro).  Correcting the matter?  No....the city doesn't appear interested in dumping any of the female managers, and things will continue on (with the fine paid to the federal government).

The odds that as time passes, and a male manager retires....that they might fill it with another female?  Maybe.

I don't think the mayor or the city council is worried over the law dynamics, or the lack of male executives in the city government.  Another fine in 2021?  Maybe....but they've got billions to play with, so 100k Euro doesn't really matter).

Resolving past history?  Well....you could make that case.  Frankly, with all the corruption and fake intrigue in government jobs....I don't think it matters much if you end up with sixteen male executives or sixteen female executives....they will all go to the corrupt path sooner or later.  At the pace of things....in a dozen years....half of the Paris executive staff will be trans-people, and it'll twist into a new drama of sorts.  

Germany and Covid-19: 16 December 2020

 1.  What is said around 10 PM last night in Germany....the vaccine business is approved as of next Monday (Biontech version).  From that day forward, it'll be 'issued'.

Why the long wait?  Well...the Germans didn't want to go on their own and approve it.  They wanted the EU to take the action.  

2.  Newly infected number for Germany last night (past 24 hours): 17,084.  It's a hefty number.  

Number of deaths in the past 24 hours?  660.

Locally, for my town of Wiesbaden, five new deaths....which brings the year up to 93.  The vast majority....over the age of 70.

3.  The hardware stores?  Well....a new reading of the ban rules says that they can remain open, but ONLY for craftsmen....not regular people.  This is a bit different from back in March/April.

4.  Free masks?  A deal started yesterday at all German pharmacy operations....compliments of a government program, if you are over the age of 60, you can pick up three masks free of charge.  

5.  Lufthansa is having a discussion with the union.  The airline needs to trim the force by a serious number.  The union is now bringing up the idea of a part-time pilot status....to prevent the layoffs.  How this would work is unknown, and you have to figure that short-time work deals by the government would have to figure into this.  

Added to this discussion....there is the anticipation that by the summer of 2022....things will return to a norm on vacation travel.   

6.  I noticed via N-TV this morning....a brief chat over a new version of Covid-19....seen now in England.  Serious difference or more of a threat?  Zero evidence at this point.

Any real risk?  The only risk-player in this...is that the vaccines being developed are for x-version of the virus. There's nothing scientific to say that the vaccine would be 95-percent effective for this new version.

7.  I watched a short news piece off RBB (the Berlin public TV news) this morning, and they talked about homeless people in Berlin who have a unique problem. 

Because of a huge decrease in people walking around....people putting a Euro in their 'tin-cup' has dramatically dropped in the past month or two.  

If you are homeless....it's a bit tougher during the ban-rule period.  

Kid Story

 I'm a big believer that as you start to step into some 'crap'....make sure it's a one-time only deal, and don't use your other 'foot' to step into additional 'crap'.

This story came up in the PM today via N-TV here in Germany. 

It basically involves a 15-year old kid in Bremerhaven (extreme north Germany).  

So the kid was on a public (assuming he's on the way to school) bus.  The bus stops and a couple of transport security folks step on....strictly to enforce the mask ban rule.

The kid has the mask on....but mostly down near the chin (it's incorrectly being worn).  If you are slightly off....usually these guys just do a friendly reminder.

This kid didn't seem to take that reminder.

So the audit guy is there and asks for a ticket.  Well....no ticket.  He just doubled his 'pain'.

The guard with the audit guy?  He is now attacked by the kid....trying to escape (I would assume).  This fails to some degree, and the police show up.

He's in fairly deep trouble at this point, but it continues on.  He throws a punch or at that the police (that's serious charges).  One policeman is injured.

He's now put into a position where handcuffs are applied and he's searched.  

Butcher knife on him?  Yep.  That's another charge.

Drug stuff?  Well....something, which will be tested later. 

Then there's this funny assessment....clothing (I assume in his backpack) which has tags but no receipt.  So they will open up an investigation on this, for shoplifting.

Charges added up:  simple violation of the Infection Protection Act (first offense....he might get away with just a 50-Euro fine).  But there's other charges (assault of a policeman, resistance, fare dodging, possession of narcotics, and shoplifting).  Luckily, he's fifteen.  But it might be enough to get youth jail for a year).  

A Brief Talk Over Dictatorships

“The true essence of a dictatorship is in fact not its regularity but its unpredictability and caprice; those who live under it must never be able to relax, must never be quite sure if they have followed the rules correctly or not.”

-- Christopher Hitchens

Thirty years ago, it would have been very easy to go and identify dictatorships around the globe: Algeria, Ethiopia, Lesotho, etc.  

For a period of time in Greece (mid-1960s to mid-1970s)....they were readily identified under a dictatorship.

Over the past hundred years...in Turkey....there's six different periods where they were under a dictatorship.

The general problem is that we've now reached a new era where things happen....rules change....social media that seemed free six months ago....might not be so open and free today.

People exist today with jobs to invent controls and be inventive on new rules to carry society forward.  You wonder who these people are, and how they got their jobs....but it's best not to ask because the discussion is not one for a free and open society.

In some comical view that I hold today....people like Socrates, John Locke, Isaac Newton, and Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz would likely be shut down at least once a month on Twitter or Facebook for discussing things that are risky.

I doubt if Aristotle would have lasted more than 100 days on Twitter before he was banned for life.

I say this because yesterday....this odd thing happened in New Zealand.  They've been designing their approach to climate change.  They pushed their plan out.

Greta (of Thunberg fame) went over it and did a condemnation.  Thirty years ago....no one in New Zealand would have cared what a sixteen year kid said.  Today?  Things are different.

The PM of New Zealand had to rush out and do a defensive posture over Greta, and explain that adults there rationalized the situation.  In their mind....this is the best that New Zealand can do.  Some New Zealanders are looking at this whole discussion and even asking....how does some non-islander fit into this whole discussion or why her chatter matters to them.

Presently, with Twitter and social media as it is.....New Zealand can still respond and do push-back.  In five years, at the pace of things.....they might not be allowed to push back.

Every week and month that passes.....a new standard pops into play, and you stand....asking yourself, where did this come from?  Eventually, some folks will ask if we are approaching the outer limits of a dictatorship and just not recognize it.  Don't worry though....by that point....we won't be able to discuss the matter and just huddle in fear over our future.  

Covid Trend Lines Locally

I live in the area of Wiesbaden (central Germany)....293k residents. 

Local news folks (at Wiesbadenaktuell) did a very good job of reporting daily numbers and statistics. I follow them daily.

If you looked at their numbers and trends....around March/April....a bump up on the weekly death count, and then a long marginal period for July/August, and the death count started a upward trend in September. 

Surge for October/November? Big-time locally. 

As of last night, we now stand at 88 folks dead from the 293k. The vast majority? Being over the age of 70, and coming in the past ninety days. 

The total infected since day one for the city? 5,985 total people from the city. 5,088 folks are considered 'recovered' at this point. ICU beds occupied right now? 78, with 15 of them on ventilation. They aren't maxed out yet but the number of free beds sits at 24. 

A lot of people would look at the population of the city and comment that this is a fairly low number (if you were using NY City as a base-number). 

On the other side of this discussion....it's a great deal being done (emphasized), to keep people focused on masks, social distancing and avoiding potential issues. Bars and pubs have been shut down now for five weeks. The curfew is in effect. Socializing is at a all-time low. Tourism for the past couple of months has been non-existent. 

It is having a mental affect on the general society, and long-term....this creates even more problems. 

It is....what it is.

What the Health Minister Said

 The German Health Minister (Spahn, CDU) gave a interview yesterday, which N-TV covered.

He made three key observations:

1.  Vaccinations in Germany would start shortly before Christmas.  

2.  His belief is that 60-percent of Germany (83-million) would be vaccinated by end-of-summer 2021.

3.  All Germans would be vaccinated (at least those who want the shot)....by mid-fall. 

Reason for the 'speed'?  The production cycle is around 13-million doses per quarter.

This solving things?  It's strictly speculation.  

I might go and suggest that the higher infection rate/death rate will continue through January, and then probably see some downward trend in Feb/Mar.

The idea of summer vacations going back to normal in June/July/August?  Germans might do another round of in-Germany-only, or lightly test the idea of driving over into Italy or Greece.  Airlines might crank things up a notch and a few countries will say if you have the virus vaccination card......you might be able to enter without the pre-test.  

I'd also go and suggest that 2021 isn't going to be normal in any sense of the word, and that 2022 will really be the return to normalization.  Economically-speaking....2021 is going to be a harsh year....with higher taxes coming somewhere down the line to pay for all the borrowed money to pay for Covid costs.