Vaccinations, Around the Clock

 The German Army will stand up a Covid-19 vaccination center on Sunday....in the Saarland.  The deal?  It'll run 24 hours a day....seven days a week...up to one-thousand vaccinations per day.  

There's going to be roughly a hundred soldiers running the center.  

What the German Army says....they could operate 28 centers like this around the nation....if called upon.

Will there be folks showing up at 2 AM or 11 PM?  I personally doubt it.  

But I would agree that this is the type of situation where you can do more of a mass vaccination, and getting the Army involved is a positive sign.

Fake Doctor Story

 Sc this story came up on N-TV news today on vaccinations and doctors.

This guy had shown up in the Rosenheim area of Bavaria, and worked in two different vaccination centers since January.  A couple of hours here and there.  

Today, based on some chatter from emergency technicians....an investigation opened up on the 49-year old guy.  He's not a doctor or medical technician.  

All total?  They suggest he gave around 1,300 vaccinations during the past 90 days.

What now?  Well....they started think over this and wonder about his past...like if he was pretending to be a doctor elsewhere.  So this is going to be a more extreme investigation.

Charges?  Based on federal law....masquerading as a doctor....could get up to ten years in prison.  But they kinda admit....there's no health hazard by his effort.  Who approved him in the vaccination centers?  Well....no one says much.  

At one point in January, a lot of the more rural centers were a bit short on personnel, and it wouldn't shock me if he just walked in....claimed some status, and no one questioned the guy.  

My Mercedes W116 (the S-Class)

 For about fourteen months, in the early 1990s....I owned a 1980 Mercedes W116 luxury car (roughly 14 years old).  

Everything about the interior was five-star and luxury status.  Gas-hog?  Well....yeah....a 3.5L engine....8-cyclinder.  

It was the only automatic that I owned in my life.

The deal to get it?  Well....this is the strange story.

This well-to-do German guy in Bitburg bought it new and drove it for about two years....then had a heart-attack.  His wife put the car into a barn, and there it sat....till 1992....for almost 10 years.  The fenders on the driver's side?  All rusted up from salt.  The mileage?  Probably 30 percent of what the normal car of that era would have had.  

My boss offered up around a thousand dollars for the car to the widow and she accepted....mostly to just get rid of it.  Between the battery and tune-up....my boss put 500 dollars into it.  He kinda talked the base inspection guy to just overlook the fenders (serious holes in it).

A year later, he was leaving and offered me this 'deal'....a satellite receiver (with the dish) and the car...for $200.  I couldn't pass up a deal like this.

The car? It drove like a million bucks.  The fuel consumption?  Well, you had to put up with this issue.  The shifting from 1st to 2nd, to 3rd, and 4th....the smoothest that you'd ever experienced in your life.  

For around fourteen months I drove this 'cruiser', and then the axle broke.  The mechanic started talking about three to four thousand DMs, and I just said 'enough', and the car went to the junk-yard.  

I kinda regard that car as the best vehicle purchase of my life (plus I got a satellite TV receiver with the deal).  

The Driving Change

 When you used to go (as a 18-year-old) to the driving course business....you ended up with a test, with either a automatic or stick-shift, and whatever you passed....was noted on your license, and that was the ONLY vehicle you were supposed to drive. Some would test on both the automatic and the stick....to be fully licensed.  

If you explained this to an American....they'd just start laughing.  My dad was a hardcore automatic freak, at least with the family car.  But every farm vehicle was a stick-shift, and you adjusted to both.  

For years and years in Germany....the vast majority of cars you drove or rented....were stick-shift (I'd say through the 1980s....it was probably around 80 to 90 percent).  

In the 1990s, you started to see more automatics on the German road.  Some Germans felt more comfortable with the automatic, and that was the test they took....meaning they could only buy or rent automatics in their life.

Here on the 1st of April....the law will change, and the notation on your license means nothing.  If you tested only on the automatic....you can drive a stick-shift....as of the first....it's ok.

Does Curfew Really Work in Terms of Covid-19?

 You can ask a hundred Germans (off the street) and most will just say it makes life a bit more miserable, but the majority accept it.  If you asked journalists and politicians....they are probably 70-percent in favor of curfew.  If you listen to the virus experts or doctors....they are probably 99-percent of curfew.

While in the winter period....curfew, I think....was easy to sell to folks.  Once winter-like weather went away, and day-time temperatures went to 18 C (64 degrees F)....the sales-job diminished a good bit.  

Science to prove Covid curfews work?  There simply isn't a statistic or data collection which generally makes the curfew gimmick factual.  

A number of young Turkish guys in Frankfurt will gleefully tell you they haven't obeyed the curfew rules....ever.  

Some hard drinking German guys will tell you this period has been the miserable period of their life, and they've only been able to drink in their house or garden-house....mostly alone while watching TV.  

The fact that bars and pubs are mostly all closed?  This shifted Germans to a new tactic....getting their beer or booze and just hanging out on some street, or in a city park....with their drinking buddies.  I think to a great extent (Frankfurt is a good example)....people did outdoor partying for the majority of the winter period when curfew was in session.  It's not the effect that the authorities wanted, but it's the only answer for the problem.  

The fact that curfew is still highly pumped-up to the public?  I don't think the journalists, politicians, or virus experts have been out on city streets to observe the private drinking parties going on, and the lack of observation by a large segment of society.  

Translation Woes Story

 In some ways, it's a bit comical.

So a fair number of Germans watched the Biden inauguration episode in January, and felt hyped-up over the poem 'The Hill We Climb' delivered by Amanda Gorman.  

This group of pro-The Hill We Climb (all Germans of course) felt it needed to be translated over into German.  You know.....from English to German.  

I'd say that around sixty-thousand Germans minimum....probably were qualified to the extent of doing this job, and you could have thrown 3,000 Euro to the majority of them, and they would have done this in ten days.  

If you'd thrown 500 Euro toward me....I have a German translator program on my tab, which I could have put line by line into.....and gotten a A-level translation in German.

Well....'WOKE' occurred and this official translation has turned into a farce, which my regional public TV network (HR) has covered in detail this morning.

First, this Dutch gal (Marieke Lucas Rijneveld)....known around the Netherlands as an accomplished writer....had the 'contract' but gave up because social media described her as a 'white non-binary woman', who apparently had average English talents.  My gut feeling....she was going my route with the translation program doing the majority of work.

Then, a Spanish guy picked up the poem and tried to make an attempt....but social media noted that he was a Catalan guy, and not of the right 'skin' to frame the poem.  So he gave up.

So a German publishing company has taken over the task....hired three women....to meet the translation by Easter weekend. 

To make this work.....the company hired three German women to make the effort.  One is a black German (born in Frankfurt and highly educated)....one is fairly well known for taking the British classic 'Brave New World' and re-translating it from English to German (2013)....and one is a German-Turk gal who has a political science background and fairly educated.  

The social media crowd?  Mostly quiet....they are three women....all highly educated....two of them have immigrant backgrounds but were born in Germany....and the commentary so far is that they've found the poem to be a bit challenging to translate into German, and to have the same meaning/purpose. 

Where this end product will go?  I'm guessing the public TV folks will spend a fair amount of time developing a video and hire out some VIP German (with a migration background) voice female to do a 'show' of the poem. 

My advice....the next time you want to do some hyped-up English to German translation....hire some AI-machine to do it for you and avoid this social justice business.  

How to View a German Green Party Win in the September National Election

 If you review polls in the past ten days in Germany....the Green Party stands about two points under the CDU Party.  It's not that the Greens have really risen that much (they've been up around 20-percent for most of the past year, and currently sit near 23-percent in polling)....it's that the CDU has fallen in the past year from near 35-percent down to around 25-to-26 percent in polling.

So if the Greens were to win in September's national election?  I would make five observations:

1.  They have to form a coalition (to reach 50-percent or more), and the options are limited.  The left situation of the Greens, SPD and Linke Party?  Nearly impossible to reach 50-percent.  So the only options are: Greens-CDU/CSU, or Greens-SPD-FDP Party.  Once you put that scenario out there....about fifty percent of the Green promises get thrown out and radical changes will fail to occur.

2.  The odds of speed limits coming to individual states on the autobahns?  I'd say it's better than 50-percent chance of states determining their own speeds.  Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria would likely remain at unlimited....states like NRW and Berlin would be limited to 130 kph.

3.  NATO would undergo a revolution....with less money funneled into defense for the German Army.  It's not a big deal because who the hell really wants to invade Germany?

4.  A fair number of CDU people are going to be furious about the direction of the party, and the past four years of Chancellor Merkel.  Their frustration will last from 2021....all the way to the next election in 2025 and require a major change in 'center-politics'. So I'll predict two terms of 'wins' for the German Green Party. 

5.  Finally, don't go expecting some major recovery from the Covid-19 economic crisis in 2022 or 2023.  It's going to be difficult for the Greens to talk over the economy in words to make their voters happy and the bulk of Germans satisfied.  

Perfectionism?

 I had to go look up the term because it's not one that I'd ever seen much before.

Chancellor Merkel used the phrase in her explanation of how things need to be resolved with Covid-19.

The meaning?  It's possible to think and act in ways....that lead to a perfect ending or solution.  Some people will tell you that it's absolutely OK to think in moderate terms of perfectionism....but someone who is consumed by it....generally is going to reach a state of marginal success, and be very 'hurt' by the end-point.

Some people will also suggest that it's a mental illness, if it consumes every minute of your day.

High achievers are perfectionists.  Most have a safety mechanism to grasp when failure has occurred, and how to reason the failure as a 'lesson-learned'.

So the question is this....is there an overwhelming crowd in German politics and journalism....that have attached themselves to perfectionism?  Well....I might suggest that some exist in this category, and it's more humorous on TV to watch their reasoning/frustrations on display.  I'd hate to call it entertainment, but it's probably reached that level. 

Vaccination Chatter

 Since Christmas week, if you wanted the Covid-19 vaccination....by the priority listing....each region had a 'center' and that was the ONLY location to get the vaccine shot.

Starting this week, in my local town (Wiesbaden)....a new deal arrives.

Seven private doctors/clinics....will get 22 syringes (each) 'loaded' each week...with a two-day must-use timeline....to vaccinate people...by the priority listing.

A bigger mess?  I sat and looked at this.  Once you sign for the box of syringes (loaded)....your 48-hour time starts up.

We are in the midst of priority group two....so you can only vaccinate those folks.  

The suggestion is that a month or so will pass, and they will start issuing a lot more of these syringes to private clinics, and the number of folks vaccinated will take off.  Doesn't matter if you question this or not....that's the plan.

Public Forum Program

 Last night, via the biggest public TV forum vehicle...the Anne Will Show....the Chancellor came on for an hour-long 'talk'.

Yeah, it was mostly about the Covid crisis, and how the states need to cooperate with the federal government.  

It was noted....this was the 5th (and probably last appearance on the show) visit to Anne Will's show.  

Public reaction?  It's hard to say.  This comes on at 9:45 PM, and a lot of young Germans don't care for the forum business.  This was meant as a chance for the Chancellor to communicate to the general public and get focus back on the federal solutions....not individual state solutions.

That she went negative over Premier-President Laschet of NRW (the CDU Parties' chief)?  Maybe a surprise, but it's directed again at the states who are not cooperative with the federal government. 

German Tourists

 Spanish officials on the isle of Mallorca have worked out a deal for German tourists flying in.  According to Focus....if you take the virus test at the end, and turn up positive....as long as you have a health insurance card....the Spanish folks will put you up in what they call a quarantine 'hotel'.

Now, they were careful about what it is, or the conditions....my humble guess is that it's a two-star place with some nurses, and a doctor checking in on you.  It's probably just for lesser cases.  

If you don't want their quarantine 'hotel'?  Well....they suggest that your apartment rental folks or hotel that you stayed in....might be willing to take you (but you'd be paying for it out of your own pocket). 

I explained this to my German wife, and she just doubled-down....no way for a week's vacation in Mallorca.  They could offer up a five-star quarantine hotel, and she'd refuse the risk involved.  

German News Item

 Kind of surprising....a major commentary piece by Helmut Markwort for Focus came up today (Sunday edition) to comment on the mental decline of President Biden.

It's the first that I've noticed in the German news media.

Hinfällig (the German word for frail) is used in the first four lines of his commentary and it's typically not a positive German word to describe one's condition in life....at least by German standards. 

What hinfällig typically translates into?  A severely weakened old person.  

Most all print and televised news in Germany have avoided the topic....so I'd classify this as the first moment where the German public were introduced to the issue.  

Flying Into Germany and New Covid-19 Rule

 Well...starting Tuesday morning, the new rule is that you must have a certificate of negative-Covid, from the country you are flying out of.....to board the plane and fly into Germany....within 48 hours of the trip.

I should note....this is on your 'tab'....not the airlines or German government.

The quick cheap tests (sold at German pharmacies or grocery stores)?  NO, they can't be used.....you have go to a full-up testing center.  I should add....it (the slip) has to be in German, English or French.

Problems?  So far....the only issue brought up are fairly remote/rural countries....like Cuba or Dominican Republic....don't have a lot of testing facilities around.  I would take a humble guess that this might also be an issue in safari trips to central Africa.  You might have to add an extra day at the end, and go into some major city....to find a clinic that does the test.

Adding hassle onto a trip?  Yeah, it's probably an hour or two of stress added, plus the worry if you fail the test with a positive situation.  

Cabins Story

 For those who were stationed in West Germany in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s....traveling by train (Bahn) meant that you sat in compartments (six seats in a cabin).  Around 2000, as the new trains arrived....they were basically one entirely open car....enough room for 120-odd people.

The Bahn folks felt this was a huge step forward and meant more people on the train....thus being economically sound-planning.

Well....a lot of people remember the private cabin business.  You'd have two or three associates with you and the cabin seemed to offer something 'special'.

The next generation of cars?  Well....it won't start till after 2023.  But today....the railway folks said that cabins will make a comeback.

What's probably in this deal?  Well....my humble guess is that they will offer the cabins for a extra price....say a normal seat for X, and the cabin seat for X-plus-.25-percent.  You'd probably have to have reservations and there's probably only two of these cabins for each single car....with the rest of the seats in the open.

Historically speaking....my best travels were in 1978/1979 and in the mid-80s....with the older railway system (no AC, with windows that opened).  These were the cars that had the beer/drink guy coming around and selling you beverages as you traveled.  

How Big a Deal is This Suez Canal 'Blockage' on the German Economy?

Well....it's an odd thing.

When you consider this ship, and three-hundred-odd ships on each side of the blockage....there's this odd group of things sitting in China which should be picked up in two weeks and brought to Europe....and this group of things which ought to be delivered into Europe in the next week or two.  

Bicycles, tires, light bulbs for cars, car batteries, etc.  If you walk into any German pharmacy....probably the bulk of products there...are Chinese-made and their restock effort are delayed by the  blockage.

Tennis shoes from Vietnam?  TV sets from Indonesia?  Curtains from South Korea?  

If this were a simple five to seven day delay....no one would say much.  I think behind the whole discussion....some folks are beginning to realize that half the containers on the blocked ship will have to be removed before you can 'lift' it enough.  

Time period?  I sat and watched a UK shipping expert discuss this matter here in the AM.  He figured that a rigged-up crane could be placed there, and maybe off-load five-hundred containers a day.  He figured a minimum of five days....on up to ten days.  But he added....this would assume that you'd have at least one to two of these rigged-up cranes around Egypt for the job, and that some OTHER emergency did not occur (like this ship starts leaking or tilting).  

All of this getting resolved by the 10th of April?  I just kind of doubt it, and figure the odds of a second issue are way above 50-percent.

So here's the thing....Huns (the German) will walk into a bicycle shop in four weeks to ask about a new set of tires for his bike and be told they are on back-order....with nothing expected until early June.  

Ingrid (the German) will walk into a pharmacy and ask for a particular skin conditioner, and be told it's on back-order, with delivery not until mid-June.

Ziggy (the German kid) will walk in and ask about a particular type of tennis shoe....only to be told it won't be delivered until the end of June.  

If the ship craps out and sinks?  Well....you'd be talking about catastrophic conditions....where certain tires won't be available at the German dealer for three months.  

So settle back....as bad as Covid has been....this is a whole new affect on the German economy, and it won't be pleasant.  

And you can add this one odd element to the story....if the goods aren't delivered yet....they aren't paid for yet either....meaning the shops in China, Vietnam or South Korea....won't get their money on time.  Two weeks wouldn't be a big worry....two months might be different.  

Curfew Chatter

 This idea of a German national curfew mandate?  

Well....up until this point, it was a city by city situation....where the mayor/city council would look at the numbers and mandate close at 9 PM (till 5 AM).  

Most Germans will say that the curfew was fairly frustrating, and some folks had to pay a fine for being either accidentally or purposely out after 9 PM.  

Finding political support for a national curfew?  NO.  It doesn't appear to be something that the politicians want to make into a national mandate.  Who is driving this?  Mostly virus experts (doctors).

The fact that you could have thousands of small villages and towns without any serious virus rate?  That's part of this whole problem leading the discussion. This might make sense in Hamburg or Berlin where the virus rates are still way up....but not in smaller towns in the Pfalz.  

I will say this...with winter ending and the sun rising earlier and setting later....the 9 PM gimmick will become a joke in about four weeks.  In roughly two weeks, around my village...the sun will set at around 8:20 PM.  In four weeks...it'll be 8:45 PM. 

Problem Over Testing?

 This problem got dragged out today and openly discussed in Germany....because you have Germans hyped-up to vacation outside of the country.  

So you (Huns) discover there's all these great hotels open in Mallorca and stage a deal for 490 Euro....to go fly down to the isle and stay at a half-way decent 3-star hotel (with breakfast and dinner each day).

The 7th day comes up and you don't have a negative to be allowed to board the plane and return to Frankfurt.

The new regulations coming up (starting Tuesday morning in Germany)....have a entry-rule....you can't board the plane home to Germany without the negative test already in the vacation location.  

Two scenarios pop up: (1) the airport you are at....has no local test facility like they do at Hamburg or Frankfurt's airports.  You'd have to locate a local medical facility and hope they test 'quickly'. 

(2) You end up with a positive test, and local hotels at the vacation area....freaking out if you attempt to return there and 'camp-out' with Covid-19.  

All of this change business is worrying the airlines, because you could easily be standing there in Mallorca with 100 people a day....who couldn't get the stupid test done in time to meet the return flight schedule.

Frauengold?

 The topic came up this week on a German movie, and my wife asked me the history...so I looked up.

Around the early 1950s (probably just six to eight years after WW II)....this product was approved for sale in West Germany....called Frauengold.

It went out into drug shops, and health food stores.

Sold to mostly women....the point was that it was supposed to be for calming effects. 

Alcohol content?  16.5 percent.

Lets be honest....even before WW I....there were various products out there which were for the same effect, and most had narcotics mixed in.  So this was purely alcohol in nature.

In the mid-1960s....several folks began to test the bottle, and made the judgement that regular alcohol would have been cheaper to buy.....triggering the same effect in mood.  

By 1981.....the West German government finally said 'enough', and banned it (mostly over evidence it actually caused kidney damage, and might trigger cancer).

How many German women were addicted to it?  Unknown. The fact that it was treated more as a over-the-counter-drug, than pure alcohol?  That's one amusing element of this story.  The fact that you could have bought a cheap bottle of vodka for probably half the price and gotten the same effect?     Yeah, that's an issue as well.

The 'Horror' Trip

 Focus wrote up a fine piece this morning over a German couple (from Freiburg...SW Germany), who'd gone and bought a brand new battery-powered VW.  They'd done the research and were going to do a trip over into France.  

I should note this....for at least five years....the German government and the public news media have blasted away to the public about how E-cars are coming, their great service, and how things are improving month by month to service/charge-up the E-cars.

So the couple took their ID.3 VW and crossed the border.  At the conclusion, they sent a 'report' of the trip results to the German Transportation Ministry, which Focus has a copy of the report.

First, the car is advertised to give you around 550 km on one single charge.  They left home, and had gotten roughly 178 km, with the 'tank' nearing low.  The charge-station they arrived at (on the database)?  Broke.  Reviewing options and getting advice from a French mechanic....it was best to backtrack a bit, to find the next available operational charge-up site.

Then after getting a partial recharge....they continue on with the route....only to discover that the end-point that they desired for the first day....there was not a charge-station there.

Second, the couple had the VW 'We Charge' card, and access to the various points advertised across Europe for recharging E-cars.  Well....along this route, they discovered that the VW card is not widely accepted for charge-up stations in France.

The route that should have gotten the couple to the hotel after ten-odd hours?  Well...it took 26 when you consider all of the short-stops and problems encountered.

So what you ought to take out of this business with the E-cars?  Maybe across Germany, it's at a marginal point where it can work....if you spend time planning, and hopefully have good maintenance of the charge-up stations.  

The day when all of Europe might be ready for E-cars?  It won't be 2021, or 2025, or even 2030.  If you were to draw a circle of 25 km around you with 150 charging stations possible....the question is....how many are actually operational?  99-percent?  75-percent?  40-percent?  Even if one is reported at 10 PM last night as broke....when will the maintenance guy arrive?  At 7 AM, the next day....or four days away?  Even if you have three different 'Charge-It' cards (from VW, x-company, and y-company).....will that be enough to handle all of the 40,000 charge-it stations in France or Spain?  

It's stories like this that keep bringing Germans back to reality....that a E-car mandate could leave you in some French village....with a dead battery, and six charge-it stations nearby.....which all seem to be broke at the moment.  

Germany and Covid-19: 26 March 2021

1.  The plan is still being worked, but it appears that come Sunday....if you fly back from Mallorca....you will be forced to test for Covid-19 at the airport.   This will be some federal directive to be handed down.

2.  Progress on vaccinations?  ARD public TV had a decent piece over this.

The news media and social media are hyped-up over this topic.  Some blame can handed out over Astrazeneca being marginally used by the public (so much negative news).  Additional blame goes toward the delivery schedule of the alternate vaccines.

Compared against other EU members?  They are way down on the list.

3.  The most open state in Germany?  Presently, Saarland (far SW of Germany).  

4. My son works for a German company which has shops in various states.  He's filled in at a shop in Hessen (Frankfurt area) for the past two weeks.  Based on the infection rate....Saturday will be the last open day for that shop, and the city order will shut down this operation for two to four weeks.  Amusingly enough...he'll return to his normal shop (across the state border in the Pfalz, in Mainz)....where they don't have the big infection rate.  His business drawing tons of Frankfurt business?  Obviously, but that's all part of this strange handle on commerce.

A One-Star Scandal

 It's a bit humorous to tell this story over public TV, but it's worth the effort.

So one of the sub-public networks under the German system is NDR (representing the far northwest of Germany).

NDR went out and sponsored this documentary piece to be done (taking several years from beginning to end), and the title was 'Lovemobil'. It came out in 2019, and was shown at various film fests....winning various awards.

So, we have this element in Germany....of legal prostitutes who use RV campers, and hook up with customers....in lesser traveled regions.  

Some towns have zero.  Some towns might have forty of them.  They tend to park in industrialized areas, and it's accepted by the police (unless the town makes rules against it).

The idea of the documentary...you'd go and follow these two lady hookers.  NDR had played the video on their network, and folks generally thought it was interesting.

In the past week....this problem arose.  You see....the person who did the documentary piece....just wanted to tell the authentic story, and she ended up using fake hookers (actors) for the documentary.  All these awards?  Well....those folks are extremely irked by the fakeness of this.  NDR? They are pretty upset.

The fact that some minor parts of the documentary are true?  Well, you just don't know where fact ends, and fakeness starts up.

Presently, the news folks are doing a lot of criticism and want their consumers to know that they didn't know nothing about this fakeness.  It's probably true.  

So the dozen-odd awards that the director and film won....thrown out?  Oh yeah....they all have jumped up and deleted the film awards.

The chief problem for this director now....Elke Margarete Lehrenkrauss?  Just looking at how frustrated the public TV folks are, and the movie award industry...she's got a toxic problem that will last a minimum of a decade.  I don't see public TV buying into any documentary that she makes.  

This all begs the question as well....she's made four additional documentary pieces....how much was true, and how much was fake?  

Then you start to look across the whole industry that exists in Germany....a lot depending on public TV's need for 'entertainment' or 'viewing'.  How much of these productions are fake?

As scandals go....I'd kind of rate this as a '3' on a scale of one to ten.  The basic story of the hookers who use the RV campers is true, and the director just wanted to tell this story.....without involving actual real hookers.  If you ask me....most hookers or their guys....if asked to participate....would have said 'no way'.  

The German Green Party Platform for 2021

 Focus put up an excellent piece and I'd recommend a read.  It's covering a 137-page document which is the political platform for the German Green Party for 2021's election.

The four things to take out of this:

1.  On pensions, the Greens want to make your pension situation a minimum of 48-percent of your regular salary.  I should note here....if you go back....20 to 30 years, it used to be near 60-percent....but has been on the decline for years.  How they'd cover you, if your donation to the pension fund did achieve 'success'?  Not a lot of talk over this, and it'd have to come out of regular tax revenue (if you ask me).

2.  If you live in highly rural areas of Germany with marginal health care?  Well....they have this idea of 'health centers'.  I looked over the details, and just wondering....to make this work, you need a fair amount of money, but there is no detail to the cost factor and where the money will come from.

3.  A 35-hour work-week for nurses.  I looked at the basic comment, and then wondered....if you have a national nurse shortage, and suggest that each nurse would work 10 to 12 percent less....your shortage of nurses would expand out by 10 percent minimum.  

4.  Finally, there would be this 'slush' fund (50 billion Euro), which would be thrown at expanding internet, more research into IT/biotechnology, climate-neutral  infrastructures, innovation with railways, more car/truck charging stations, and more 'modern' urban development.

Some of these will appeal to younger voters, and to certain groups of voters (like the nurses).  It wouldn't surprise me if the Greens went and took a quarter of all SPD-voters.  

As for delivering the 'promises'?  Well....you have to form a coalition, and the bulk of these 'promises' will be tossed out, with only a couple of these in the final package. 

Reality

 Retried CDU Party member Wolfgang Bosbach did a short interview with Bild (the newspaper) and had the quote of the day.

Looking over the micromanagement of the German federal government...he offered the assessment of the leadership: "(they) do not perceive the reality of life so much anymore" 

Then he noted: "You have to get out of the company car".

Just as an outsider....I'd look over the past 400-odd days, and suggest that it just seems like you have an enormous kitchen, with a thousand-odd cooks standing there....to make one single marginal cheesecake.  Once done, the single cheesecake is moved to the 10,000-person ballroom....where only a dozen folks sit and applaud the magnificent cheesecake.

Fun-factor level for regular Germans at this point?  I'd say that forty-percent have expended the bulk of their patience over ban-rules.  Half the nation is all hyped-up negative about people flying off to Mallorca for a week-long holiday, and the other half of the country is dreaming of a wild and reckless week there.   

No Five Day Weekend!

 After a fair amount of public and private chatter yesterday.....the Bundestag leadership determined that you can't make next Thursday and Saturday 'free-shut-down' days in the name of Covid-19.  

Officially (for years), Friday and Monday were 'branded' as part of the Easter off-period.  This plan discussed by the Chancellor was that you'd force all business operations to shutdown, and only with grocery stores opening on Saturday....was the draft plan.  So that's gone now.

Amount of criticism dumped upon Chancellor Merkel for the 'failure'?  Probably the most that she's had since day one of the Chancellorship.

It's a curious thing as well....if you look at state by state actions, the Saarland (as a state) is ending all closures (gyms, kinos, outdoor eating establishments, etc) on 6 April (after Easter).  

The whole gimmick of the federal government trying to 'super-manage' Covid-ban-rules?  Pretty much slammed to the ground by the sixteen states.  

5G Story

 In my local town (Wiesbaden)....cops got called Sunday afternoon. 

Curious fire was reported....at a cellphone tower over here on the edge of the city (Bierstadt).....sent a malfunction signal in the late afternoon, and the technician arrived to find 'fire damage'.

After a few minutes....the technician calls the police.

So what the police say....someone intentionally set the 'box' on the tower on fire.  Arson, plain and simple.

The deal?  '5G-oppoinents' at work...is the description that the police use.

Is this an issue in Germany?  Well...yes.  There are various environmentalists who've given a fairly negative 'rating' on 5G, and they don't want the upgrade.

More potential attacks?  It wouldn't surprise me if you start seeing an attack or two each week in the state, with the opponents sending a 'message'. 

Mallorca Chatter

 So this odd chat started up in Berlin today....the topic....can the German government forbid Germans in this Covid-period from going off on vacation for a week or two....to the Spanish isle of Mallorca?

New cases of Covid-19 on Mallorca....per 100,000?  29.  Yeah....awful low.

Infection rate in Berlin....per 100k?  Above 100.

Infection rate in Hamburg...per 100k?  A week ago, they went above 100.

So you look at this legal effort underway and ask the question....if Germans are taking two weeks off and going somewhere with a lesser infection rate....what's wrong with this?

The general fear?  They will get Covid-19 and return to Germany with it.

Constitutionally clear?  No, and several legal folks have appeared on TV this afternoon to hint that this is a waste of time unless you change the Constitution.  

The fact that the government is ordering German hotels to remain closed, yet allow these folks to travel off to Mallorca...to stay in Spanish hotels?  Well, that's part of the 'comedy' as well.

I watched a piece over the weekend, and here were Germans who'd boarded a plane on Friday of last week (some in their 20s....some in their 60s), and they had zero fear or worry over the trip.  They were walking the beach and chilling out. 

The negative?  They kinda admitted that most restaurants were only open to 'pick-up' there in Mallorca, and only the hotel bar was open for sipping beer or cocktails.  

Just another mess for the Merkel team to clean up?  Yeah, and that's the weekly comedy show that unfolds....trying to fix something which doesn't make a lot of sense. 

One Boss Discussion

 A fair amount of chatter started up yesterday afternoon (Tuesday) over the amount of discussion and argument by Chancellor Merkel, her cabinet (composed of both CDU-CSU and SPD Party members), and the Premier-Presidents of the sixteen German states.

This meeting to determine the ban-rules and how far things were going....turned into a root-canal type meeting....eleven-plus hours...with serious disagreements.  

Some political folks (especially in Berlin) and journalists are suggesting that this state-power thing has to come to an end.  Full control over the Covid-19 ban-rules should then be a federal thing 'only'.  

Odds of the sixteen states agreeing to this empowerment?  Zero.  

Depending on where you are in the sixteen states....there's a different script for ban rules.  So if you lived on the border line of three different German states and shopped weekly across the 'borders'....you need to pay attention to the local conditions/rules. 

Vaccine Story

 Fair sized mystery piling up in Italy this morning.

EU authorities went into a vaccine plant in Anagni, Italy....for Astrazeneca vaccine (for Covid-19). 

Walking around....they come to this group of boxes (I assume in the cooling area).  So here sits 29-million doses of Astrazeneca.  

This was supposed to be (so says the plant folks) destined for the UK.  

So there's this bit of confusion going on....the EU thinks the vaccine should all be held in the EU....not exported.  Why nothing moved on these 29-million doses?  Unknown.

There'll probably be a month-long investigation over this, and forty different Italian folks will claim differing views of who said what.  

It's good material for a five-star Italian bureaucratic comedy, if you ask me.

I should state this....Anagni is about 40 miles SE of Rome.

UPDATE: The doses sitting there....were waiting on the quality check to be ended.  About 13-million of the doses were going to third-world countries.  The rest?  They were destined for EU member states after the review was complete.  A hyped-up EU-mess?  Probably so. 

'Flip-Switch' Mentality over Commerce and Capitalism

 A few days ago, this topic came up and I've spent a fair amount of time thinking about this.  

You can generally go and spend four years in college these days (doesn't matter if it's Germany, the UK, or the US), and avoid classes or discussions over economics, capitalism, commerce, production, trade, bartering, and marketing.  

In fact, you could specialize in politics for four years, and find yourself deep into a conversation over economics....but really have zero background to discuss matters yourself.  

As Covid-19 came along, this mentality surged up....that you could flip capitalism/commerce ON and OFF.  

This translated into incredible events....where you dealt with the idea of essential and non-essential.  With no background or expertise, you deemed barbershops or hair saloons as non-essential.  Then you'd turn to tire-shops and deem them non-essential.  Ice cream shops?  Non-essential, of course.  

So months would pass, and in your mind....the day would arrive (maybe four months later) that you'd reverse everything, and non-essentials would all reopen.  Then you woke up to realize that of the four ice-cream shops in your town 144 days later....only one reopened.  Two were bankrupted out of existence, and one survived without bankruptcy, but had no hard cash to stage a reopening. 

In my local town (Wiesbaden), I can point at twenty-five different 'fronts' which are today empty (having dissolved at some point in mid-to-late 2020).  One was a appliance shop in a premier location....which carried a hefty rental cost.  Another was a premier location which had been newly rented in 2019 as a cellphone sales shop.  One had been a small pub operation (maybe big enough for thirty customers max).  

Two months ago, I viewed a YouTube video of a California restaurant near a beach district, and the guy admitted defeat (shutting down permanently).  A lot of anger and frustration from the guy....but his outlook was that he was leaving the state because they couldn't handle commerce.  Behind his statement....it kinda figured into the mess that if thousands of operations like his weren't open....they weren't paying sales tax into the state machine.  This on-off flip switch had a serious problem which would arrive sooner or later.  Its just that they didn't grasp that part of the consequence.

I had a car in the spring of 2020 that desperately needed new summer tires (we were into May, and you really can't drive on winter tires in the warmer weather).  I had a particular shop that I'd done business with....for nearly six years.  Zero help.....they were non-essential and shut-down.  I even offered to secretly drop off the rims and they could do this under-the-table....'nope' they responded.  Finally in June, they reopened and got me on the massive schedule they had.

What happens this summer?  Around July/August, if you follow the news indications....a 'herd-mentality' will arrive, with enough folks 'jabbed' (given the vaccination), and suddenly....the flip-switch will go back on....full-blast.  

Well....they suggest that.

The biggest indicator of flip-switch success (at least in Germany)?  Right now, on the schedule....Oktoberfest 2021 is still listed.  Six months to go, and it'd be a way of saying the flip-switch is 'glued' into place.

Am I bullshitting?  Well....I tend to expect some massive entry gimmick (two or three entry points)....where you pay five Euro for a quickie Covid-19 test and then wait for the test to show 'negative' in a few minutes....then be allowed entry into the fest grounds.  

The fact that you might have paid near 3,000 Euro to get reservations, travel and accommodations, then have a 'positive' show and deny you the rich lifestyle of Oktoberfest?  Well....that's the real pain of what is coming.  

If they had 300 folks a day denied entry into the Munich beer-fest?  It'd start to beg questions, and make folks assume that Covid-19 is making another flip-switch entry into their lives.  

Same for the December Christmas markets?  Yeah....probably so.

'Flip-switch' economics and commerce is around to stay.  And it's a harsh reality which will eventually trigger political instability around Europe.  

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if by the spring of 2022...with the economy really stalled in Germany....that we see a new political party form up....called the Kippschalter Party (the flip switch party).  Mad consumers, angry business people, and disgruntled young people.....looking for something that the traditional parties can't offer.  

To end this discussion....back on Monday night, I watched a four-minute interview of a German bowling alley manager.  His business was non-essential.  He'd been pushed to the extreme on commerce and surviving.  His big hope?  Chancellor Merkel's crew would find a way to open up around Easter weekend.  He had tons of people calling for reservations for the week after Easter, and he was hyped up.  

I felt sorry for the guy.  He had a four-star operation, and consumers really to use his 'product'.  The 'flip-switch' stood in his way.  

Real Off-Days?

 So there's a fair amount of discussion going on with managers and business owners....over the government order for next weekend (Easter weekend).  Normally....Friday, Sunday and Monday would be off-days.  They are federally recognized and no one is complaining over that deal.

It's the change to making suddenly.....Thursday a holiday-off situation, and to some degree....Saturday is now off (unless you are a grocery operation).

Is this 'forced' leave?  Well....nothing in terms of legal jargon is worded that way.

Affecting union employees?  Oh yeah....big-time.

Creating a political mess to clean up in the next week?  I would make a suggestion that more than a thousand man-hours will be wasted in the Bundestag as they look over the mess created, and work up some federal solution for two days of off-time which should not exist.

Austria having this problem?  No....only Easter Sunday, and Monday would be federal holidays off there.

Switzerland having this problem?  No...regionally, they'd recognize Friday and Sunday as federal holidays, with Thursday and Monday as regional holidays (depending on what part of the country you live in).

It's silly to flip this into a public forum type debate, but we are traveling toward that type of situation.  

Food Shortage Warning?

 I noticed this afternoon....one of the major German grocery operations.....Aldi....has said with the federal Covid-19 ban-rules set up for closing them for Thur-Fri of next week, and the Monday after that....they are going to establish purchase limits for next week (Mon through Wed).

The hint?  They have a logistical effort that sets up a delivery of a depot truck each day to each grocery.  So if you triggered a mass purchase on Monday....the odds are that they'd be short on food by Tuesday morning.  

The odds that other grocery operations will admit the same problem?  Probably near 100-percent.

I'd even make the prediction that the 3rd of April (the only day they will be open over that weekend).....will be a total mess, and a number of shelves sold out by noon.  

Maybe the government had good intentions over the closure situation, but grocery-wise, it's going to be a challenge.  

Covid-19 Test Kit?

 My wife works for a fairly successful but small German company, and the boss got a big box today....of Covid-19 test kits.  He's handing one kit out each week, to each employee....free deal.  

So she and the other lady in the office looked at the instructions with the kit, and both gave up....admitting it's too complicated.

She came home and handed me the kit (I'm home IT-support).  There are two sheets of paper....one in English and one in German.  I figured fine....this should be no more than five or six steps.  In terms of fine-print....it's WAY more than usual.  

What you have is a 15-minute reading session....probably written by a PhD-level individual that tells you nearly 300 things (like you should use in a bitter cold area, or an extra hot area, or that when you dispose of it the kit....it has to go in the bio-garbage).  

Complicated instructions?  I came to the end and basically admitted that this piece of paper wouldn't work.

I looked at the side of the box....'made in China' (my criticism for products now often made in China).  

So I looked up the box name on YouTube and here was a video made by some 12-year old German kid, with English sub-titles.  He basically broke it down to three steps.  Smart kid.....you might need more of him instead of the PhD-level guy.  

Tomorrow night....I'll open the kit and test the wife....to assure her and the boss that she's 'negative'.  If it says positive?  I'm pretty sure she will freak out, and be dialing six different medical services.

This becoming a weekly thing?   Well....the boss kinda hinted that employees need to test themselves at least once a week, and he's the one spending the five-Euro per employee for the kit. 

More Harsh Covid Rules?

 As the German grocery stores have read the rules....they've gone out this afternoon to let the public know the Easter-period Covid-ban-rules.

1 April: (Thursday) ALL grocery operations, pharmacies, regular stores, etc....CLOSED.

2 April: (Friday) ALL grocery operations, pharmacies, regular stores, etc....CLOSED.

3 April: (Saturday) Supermarkets open.  Everything else is CLOSED.

4 April: (Sunday) Everything CLOSED.

5 April: (Monday) Everything CLOSED.

What this translate into?  If you are a German and planning your weekly grocery shopping...starting on 29 March (Monday), you need to hype up shopping, and try to wrap it up by 30 March (Tuesday), because all hell will break loose on Wednesday (31 March), and this will be a hell of a mess.

The odds of adjusted and longer hours on 3rd of April (that Saturday)?  It's already being discussed in some states, and the authorities will ease regulations.  So your local grocery that might normally open at 8 AM and close by 8 PM?  My humble guess is that most will add two to three hours.  But I'd already go and predict that the 3rd will be an equal mess.

Focus laid out the story in great detail.  If you can imagine the last possible shopping day before Christmas....this lock-down situation will compare easily to that.  

Not Quality Effort

 A fair amount of details have come out in the last hour over this Covid-19 meeting with the Chancellor yesterday and early this morning (going to 1 AM).

After the agreement was worked up (agreed upon by the sixteen state premier-presidents)....it took about 90 minutes for the Chancellor and her handlers to craft the public response and announcement (at 2:30 roughly).  

If you view the video of the 'talk'....Merkel looks pretty crapped-out and tired.  

Years ago, I worked with a pretty competent officer while in my military period....who'd often offer wisdom over things.  

At some point, there was a talk in the office over some event that had occurred late at night, and there was a talk on whether they'd say something then, or early in the morning.  

As my 'boss' laid things out....you just never want to go say things late at night.  You start to discuss things or invent verbiage which just isn't your 'best effort'.  I felt the same way watching these individual give a little pep talk from the 2:30 AM situation.  

In simple terms....if you've worked yourself up all day, and still engaged in some project or team discussion at 8 PM....you are working at your worse level.  You aren't that focused, or able to concentrate on the important things.  By 10 PM?  Your motivation and concentration area probably 30 to 40 percent of what it was at noon.  

So I don't see any of this effort by the premier-presidents or Merkel-team being quality work.  It's not something that you ought to go out and brag upon.  

Home Story

 A couple of months ago....Hamburg went and made up a rule for a particular region of the city.....that single-family 'new' homes were forbidden from approval for construction.  The hype?  Well....there's only x-amount of space for construction, and it'd be better if folks would take open property left, and ONLY build multi-family homes (apartment/condo type buildings).  

Naturally, the Green Party were a key element in this rule construction, and one of their key members....Anton Hofreiter....chatted up the subject a good bit.  In return, a number of non-Green Party folks got negative about the Hamburg rule, and Hofreiter's discussion going against single-family homes.

I noticed yesterday....of HR (out public TV folks in Hessen), the subject came up again.  This time, via Henning Baurmann, the dean of the architecture department at Darmstadt's University of Applied Sciences.

His commentary went this way....viewing the cost of housing the Frankfurt Rhein-Main region (to encompass Hanau, Darmstadt, Wiesbaden, Frankfurt and Bad Homburg)....regular single-family housing is reaching a point of being unaffordable.

If you wanted to buy a single-family home, with a real yard/garden, and garage....you were talking about 757k Euro (average).....roughly 900k US dollars.  In the Darmstadt area, it's now around 600k Euro (average).  In the Marburg area (about 70 km north of Frankfurt), you'd need around 425k Euro for such a house. 

In his frame of mind....just on pricing alone....affording a single-family dream house is going to be near impossible over the next decade.  If you figure 20-percent down-payment, and the monthly mortgage for 30 years?  You'd need to be successful at whatever trade you had in mind.

But he added this one single extra issue....'home-shaming'.

I had to go and look up the term.  This is basically where you've bought a pretty large lot....put up a decent sized house, then added a serious amount of garden area, with a hut for 'hiding out', then thrown in a two-car garage, and maybe added a kids playground of some sort.  You've probably taken up twice the normal space that a regular guy would have bought.  It's not your normal half-acre mini-home with tiny front-yard, and just a single car garage on the side of the home.  

In simple terms, you've created a huge foot-print which is noticed by others and condemned for over-indulging.  

In my village....about half the houses are in this fashion...but they were already built and standing back in the 1970s and 1980s.  

Then he added the really terrible addition....air conditioning.  Anyone who has been out of the country for twenty-odd years....would remark upon arriving and driving around urbanized areas.....a lot of newer houses seem to have AC units hanging off the roof or in the back-yard.  

If I draw a 1,000 foot circle around my place....there's around six new properties (the older houses were gutted and torn down), with all six of the newer places having either some limited AC situation, or a complete full-blast AC unit.  One housing unit put the AC unit on the roof (it took a fair amount of effort to get it up there) and obviously...it cools the three bedrooms on the second level (not the rest of the house).

Where this is leading to?  Baurmann suggests that there is a rethinking of home priorities and construction going on.  The path of the past twenty years?  It's probably going to come to an end....either voluntarily by people looking at different home ideas, or the city planning folks making strict rules on what can be built (like Hamburg's one suburb rule on multi-family homes).

If you held to the single-family 'dream-home' in the future?  I think this will only lead to people looking for going far out away from urbanized jobs.  Example, you might work in Frankfurt, but live in 60 km east of there in a smaller town like Heigenbrucken, and ride the train 54 minutes to reach your job.  Or maybe you'd live in Wetzler (60 km north of Frankfurt) and ride the train 60 minutes to your job. 

This would lead to a lesser rule-related construction situation, and lesser cost. 

I look over the three-story house that my German father-in-law built in the mid 1960s...for around 25,000 DM's (what would amount to 12.5k US dollars).  Between him, his brother and some donated time by associates....most of the labor was free and done on weekends.  The value of the house sixty years later?  Around 750k Euro (figure around 900,000 US dollars).  If he was alive today....he'd be in total shock.  The real estate guy today would also tell him...if he'd just added another 20 square meters on each floor....it'd be a million Euro home or worth at least two-million DM's.

Government Meeting

 Yesterday, Monday, was the big meeting between Chancellor Merkel, her advisers, and the sixteen Premier-Presidents (governors of the 16 German states).  The topic was Covid-ban-rules and where things go.  

A month ago, it was generally expected to be a pleasant meeting....last six hours, and a number of rules were to be relaxed....nationwide.  Cafes, restaurants and bars were expected to re-open....at least in some form (maybe limited to out-of-doors).

Well....things dragged on.  Around 9:45 PM....the Channel One/Two public TV folks said they were ready to interrupt TV coverage and give you the press conference with the Chancellor.  So folks kinda waited.

It wasn't until 2:30 AM that the smoke cleared and the Chancellor could walk into a press room and give a 20-minute update on the ban-rules.  

Based on what I've seen this morning (around 7 AM)....the Chancellor looked awful tired and run down.  The ban-rules?  It's probably more fragmented than at any point in the past year.  There's a huge amount of frustration with the German travelers who've gone off to the Spanish isle of Mallorca, and politicians believe they need to be put into isolation upon return, or forced to do a couple of days of quarantine.  They could not come to an agreement on how to handle this crowd.

So, the basis or results of this all-day meeting (11 hours)? (I should note here....this started shortly after a late-lunch.)  

Starting next Thursday, and running through Easter weekend (to include Monday)....a 'super-duper' shutdown is ordered.  All commerce is halted, and visitors to your house is super-restricted.  

Another four weeks of standard Covid-ban-rules continue on....till the 18th of April.  Shortly before that....another Merkel meeting will occur, and they will decide if things can be relaxed.

What happens Easter weekend?  I would suggest that some dramatic counter protests will occur on Saturday....in several German cities, and it'll require a massive police presence.  There were a fair number of Germans who were expecting Easter weekend to be the 'release' point of the ban-rules, and things would start to return to normal.  The numbers, however, don't allow for that.  

I should also add this segment of what is coming to the weekend.....temperature predictions are near 14 C (57 degrees F), with decent weather in the majority of the country.  So if you were going to demonstrate....it'd be in your advantage.  

Paragraph 132a Story

 Among the German criminal code....there is this one paragraph which is kind of interesting....paragraph 132a.

It concerns the misuse or abuse of titles, job titles and badges.

There are three ways that you can get in trouble over unauthorized 'use':

1. If you try to use German or foreign official service titles, college degrees, ranks, or public dignities.

2. If you hold a professional title of doctor, dentist, psychological psychotherapist, child and adolescent psychotherapist, psychotherapist, veterinarian, pharmacist, lawyer, patent attorney, auditor, sworn accountant, tax advisor or tax agent.

3. Finally, if you wore domestic or foreign uniforms, official clothing or official badges.

So how bad is this if caught and taken in court?  Potential fine and potentially up to 12 months in prison.

Now, I bring this up today because of a police report out of Hamburg's train station.

You see....cops got called over a mid-50s dude who was smoking within the train-station.  

They approach, and this guy is in a German Army uniform...full regular beret on with some rank showing, and the rank of 'captain' on the shoulder tabs.

This was a 'regular'....someone that the cops tend to meet and have to handle on a regular basis.  So they wrote up the discrepancy report, and forwarded it onto the station.....then they released the guy for the time being. 

If the court wants to mess with him?  The paragraph is plain simple and laid out, but it's a waste of time if you ask me.  

How often does this title, college degree thing, or badge business come up?  I probably see two or three of these in an average year, and sometimes it reaches a surprising level....where someone was actually hired into a job with a fake degree (last year was some doctor  in Hessen who'd never attended medical school).  Around a decade ago....an American PhD guy was a college instructor in Germany and was warned by the police not to hand out business cards with the 'rank' of PhD on it because he wasn't German PhD'ed (just plain American PhD'ed).  

Volcanic Activity Story

 A couple of years ago, the wife and I went off for a six-day trip to Iceland.  For three days, we were on the southeastern coastal area....near Grindavik.  

There's not a lot to drag a person to Grindavik.  It's quiet.  There's one single restaurant in the town, and one decent hotel.  

I remember three key things about the town: (1) if you want a decent coffee at 6 AM, about the only place is the local gas station, and it's the cheapest-made stuff you can imagine. (2) The hotel had heavy-extra-duty curtains, which you need in July because the sun is still blasting away at midnight, and rises by 2 AM.  (3) The hotel manager gal had a dozen different piercings on various noticeable parts of her body, and you had to push yourself to not gaze too hard to see the non-noticeable parts with piercings.   

This past week or two....I've noticed the town in the news a fair bit.  There's been serious volcanic activity there.  We are talking about spewing out, and lava flows going on.

If you drive south south out of the Keflavik Airport...one single road...for about 25 minutes, you reach Grindavik.  

All of this curtailing tourism?  No one says much.  But I would imagine more than a quarter-million Americans have never seen an active volcano, and they'd easily hop on some passenger jet to go spend five or six days gazing at volcanic eruptions and sipping beer off some hotel patio.  

Political Story

 There's about forty versions of this story floating around this morning in Germany, and this is my 20-line condensed version.

So, in the last couple of months....this CDU member of the German Bundestag came up on corruption chatter.  Karin Strenz.

What we can generally say is that this mid-50s resident of the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania area (NE German state)....had moved up around a decade ago and gotten elected.  I won't say she was nationally recognized, but at least around the state she represented....she was one of a dozen political folks generally recognized.

The corruption chatter?  Money laundering and bribes.

The general account?  Around four months ago....someone passed info on her being connected to the flow of money from Azerbaijan.  The amount?  Four million Euro (figure around 5-million dollars).  

What was involved?  Unknown.  Who provided the info to the prosecution folks? A massive secret.  This was going through British companies and Baltic countries?  Just an odd set-up (typically Cyprus would be the better choice).  

So, over the weekend....Strenz finished up a week or two of vacation in Cuba....got on a plane to Frankfurt, and had health issues about three or four hours into the trip.  The plane landed in Ireland, but she was dead by that point.  

What kind of health emergency?  Unknown at this point....maybe a heart-attack....maybe something intentional.  

The money laundering situation?  Pretty much doomed now and I would suggest that unless they finger another politician....this effort is finished.  

Covid-19 Chatter on Monday

 Bits and pieces of the Chancellor and Premier-President 'chatter' are leaking out over today's (Monday) big Corona meeting.

What appears on the list?

1.  The Covid-19 ban rules list will continue on to mid-April (another four weeks).

2.  The curfew business (9 PM to 5 AM) will continue in high-infection areas.

3.  Some kind of new rule will be created...called the 'Mallorca-rule'.  Some of the Premier-Presidents want a halt to Germans traveling to the Spanish isle.  Some want stringent testing upon the return.  Some want to exempt Germans who go to Mallorca but stay in homes or cabins....making the stringent rules for those who stay in hotels.

4.  Schools in high infection areas?  They will stay shut-down.

The next BIG meeting for the government folks to discuss keeping the rules on, and dismissing them?  12 April.

Somewhere in the range of 60 to 70 percent of Germans are willing to accept the ban-rules continuing on.  The remaining group are split....some are frustrated and marginally obeying the rules....with the other half in plain disobedience. 

Covid-19 Chatter

 There's supposed to be a Chancellor/Premier Presidents meeting tomorrow (Monday) to adjust the Covid-19 ban rules.  Folks were expecting pubs, bars and restaurants to be put on the open list this week.

The rumor this afternoon (Sunday)?  ARD public TV says the ban-rules stay in place until early April....minimum.  There's apparently notes already being passed around with the Premier-Presidents, and the majority don't want to change any ban-rules. 

The chatter is that nothing much will change.

Germans taking off this week for spring trips to Spain?  OH YES.  There's been a lot of updates via the travel industry over the past ten days, with tons of reservations being made, and folks showing up at the airports.  The odds that they will return in seven to ten days.....carrying Covid-19 around Germany?  That's the general assumed issue right now.

Anger building up over the continued closures?  I would suggest that roughly a quarter of the German population is fed up and has little patience left at this point.  That demonstration from yesterday in Kassel?  I suspect that this coming Saturday (the 27th) will be another major anti-Covid-ban-rule demonstration.

How Many Parties Held Seats in the German Bundestag After the July 1932 Election?

 Well....fourtteen.  I know....it's a hefty number if you think about it.  At the time, you had 602 members of the Bundestag.

The Nazi Party did clear around 230 of the seats, with the SPD Party getting 133 seats.

At the time, this five-percent minimum rule was not in effect.  

So you had 9 parties that cleared 4.9-percent or less....that got seats in the Bundestag.  

There's this one fascinating detail often left out of the July 1932 situation....no one from the 15 other parties found any willing nature to partner-up with the Nazi Party....so the coalition could NOT be formed, and this guaranteed another election by November of the same year.

The most unknown party out of this group....with just one single seat?  The Reich Party for Civil Rights and Deflation.  This is mostly a political party (getting 41k votes nationally) that is concerned with Germans who save money (in terms of depositing it into banks).  If you looked at their statements....they were for mostly bulking up and helping the middle-class society grow...thus avoiding inflation. 

Political Polling

 Another political poll came out in the past 24 hours....indicating Merkel's party (the CDU) is crapped-out.  If they had an election right now....the party would barely pull 27-percent.

If you read through what Focus wrote to the topic....the harsh reality here is that the SPD Party (the traditional big player) is barely at 17-percent.  That would indicate that the big players (in German politics since 1947) can't pull more than 44-percent of national voting combined.

If you go back to the 1980s/1990s....the two could generally pull 80-percent or more of the national vote combined.

The Greens (at 22-percent) and the FDP (at 10-percent) are the gainers here.

If this were to stay at this level?  Getting a coalition would be extremely difficult (probably requiring three parties to make the 50-percent point or better).

In the present view.....even if the CDU won, and tried to build a coalition with the SPD and FDP....it wouldn't be enough to go over the 50-percent level.  

I'll go and make the assessment....whoever wins in September....will form a fairly weak government to run the country for the next four years.  

Where Germany Stands on Covid-19 Thirteen Months Later

Just for reference....there are 83-million Germans for the total population. 

Total number of Covid-19 deaths?  74,643.

Total infected since day one? 2,654,734.

Total recovered?  2,409,700.

Number of Germans in a hospital presently, on a ventilator?  1,596.

Vaccinated with the first shot?  8.7-percent.

What numbers aren't collected?  Well, it's a curious number and would beg for more questions....what's the number of people who've had their second bout with the virus.  It wouldn't surprise me by mid-summer to have some people perhaps on their third bout with the virus.  

Kassel and the Anti-Ban Crowd

 Yesterday, Saturday....roughly 20,000 demonstrators showed up in Kassel (a major Hessen town about two hours driving north of Frankfurt).  Their topic?  Anti-Covid-19 ban-rules.  

I suspect that local authorities were shocked at the size of the crowd, and were expecting something a quarter this size.  Weather playing a role?  It was actually a pretty nice day....perhaps a bit chilly, but very sunny.

Hyped-up anger by the politicians?  Yes.  They felt that the police should have put the demonstration down early.  Lot of folks without masks and dumping the social distance rule.

Other elements of this demonstration?  Oddly enough, protesters went at public TV crews (showing the finger, yelling at them, etc).  At some point, after an adult had insulted the TV crew....behind him came a 12-year old kid who also did the insult situation on the TV guys.

Will it affect the infection rate by early this week?  It's anyone's guess.  The rate, for the record, has been on a climbing effort for the past couple of weeks.  A fair number of people were expecting cafes, bars and restaurants to open the week after Easter.  My humble belief is that the numbers will not present a opening of the facilities, and public discontent will go up a notch or two.

Finally....the central-location of Kassel as a choice?  There are like four autobahns that converge in the region.  This is one of the few cities where you could easily drive up...park your car, and within an hour of walking....be at the center of the city.  Even if they shutdown the city tram system....it's a city built for walking and easy access.  

German Western Film Story

 Around the early 1960s....West Germany finally got into making authentic cowboy movies.....written by the series of book by Karl May in the 1870s-to-1890s.  I should note...Karl never traveled to the American west, and he basically bluffed his way to writting each.

The book used for the first movie was Der Schatz im Silbersee (translates to the Treasure of the Silver Lake).

Shot cheaply?  Well...they did the entire movie in Yugoslavia, and it was the first of several cowboy movies circling around the Indian character Winnetou.  To add some big names to the movie.....Lex Barker was borrowed from Hollywood.

The basic script?

There's some treasure map existing, and some evil folks have killed the owner....taking the map and making their way through Indian territory. 

The Lex Barker character (with the help of his Indian friend) is supposed to help the Indians, and by the end.....kills all the bad guys.

Profit-wise, this was the highest grossing movie of 1962, and attracted a fair amount of attention.  Translation into English?  It didn't come until three years later (fall 1965).  Most Americans who remember it...probably will tell you they went to drive-in theaters in the spring of 1966 and witnessed it there.

This one movie opened up a significant number of May-written pieces.....produced in 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966 and 1968 (17 total cowboy films).  

Public TV Chatter

 This week, it was kinda laid out that public TV in Germany (ARD/ZDF) are getting Instagram accounts.  Not just a couple, but a fair number.  

What's coming?

Well....here's the chief problem...for months, it's been noted that young people (from ages 15 to 25) simply don't follow the traditional public TV viewer path. You can even make a case that the group of 25 to 35 year old Germans are not that connected to public TV.

The idea here is that if they go 'hipster'....getting up an audience via Instagram (the influence crowd hangs out there)...they'd get the younger viewers.

A laughable situation?  I tend to suggest that.

The general behavior that the ARD/ZDF crowd have....is intellectual-types, and frankly....that doesn't sell well to the influence crowd of Instagram.

This being a stupid idea?  On a scale of one to ten....I'd give it a '7' toward stupid moves.  

But here's the thing....the public TV folks are reaching a point of desperation....they need some angle to get young viewers back to their 'gimmick'.  Presently, it's just not selling.  So, Instagram makes sense in this type of screwed-up world.   

General Clinic Doctors and the Vaccination Business

 If you read through regional news throughout Germany, there is anticipation that shortly after Easter.....regular doctors will be allocated x-amount of the Covid-19 vaccine to dish out.  

However, if you read the finer details....it'll amount to 20 doses per week, in the first month....then go to 60 doses in the next period after that.

I sat and pondered over this.  My local German doctor probably has over 4,000 patients under his belt (he has a entry-point, and will accept no one more).  So this 20 doses per week....really won't amount to much.

Even at 60 doses a week?  No....same end-result.

My humble guess is that he'll make a standard Thursday 'event'....say between 7:30 and 9:30....twenty patients who meet the age/health requirements...will get an invite to come over.  

Not amounting to much?  Well....even at 60 doses, it doesn't really speed up things.

This is where you really need a German Army group to bring a dozen folks into a village for two entire days, and just get everyone in that village.  

Vaccination Chatter

 This German social media chatter....that Chancellor Merkel ought to have her vaccination done live on TV, and with the Astrazeneca vaccine?

It's been uttered and tossed around. 

For the record, the Chancellor said when her opportunity came up for the vaccination (her age level)...she'd do it in private.

If she did a live episode, and then had some thrombosis episode with the Astrazeneca vaccine?  Well...I'd just say it this way, you could forget about the rest of the use of Astrazeneca....no one would take it.

I would imagine that half of her handlers are urging her to do the live vaccination on TV situation, and she's under some pressure at this point.

Me?  No....shots stress me out and I wouldn't want to be on live-TV with twenty-million Germans watching as I collapsed four minutes after the vaccination on the floor. 

Crime Chatter

 The local police (city of Wiesbaden) did their analysis over crime in 2020, and released the results yesterday.

So there are four observations I can make over the report:

1.  Statistically-speaking, it was the lowest crime year in the 36 years that they kept numbers.  A lot of this though....led to people staying at home, or avoiding street activity.  The city did bring up the fact that a lot of cameras were installed over the past two years, and part of the credit might be camera action.

2.  Burglar action decreased (18-percent) over the previous year.  The given reason?  Home-office.  Maybe to some degree, that did help in day-time hours, but with people doing less night-time socializing....homes were generally occupied a lot more than usual.  That's also true over vacation periods in 2020.....where people didn't travel or go anywhere.

3.  One odd statistic here....usually with most crimes....a lot of them don't lead back to the guy involved.  He usually just walks away.  With the city's numbers....roughly half of the culprits were figured out....sooner or later.  

4.  Finally, domestic violence went up around 15-percent.  This is probably another result of the 'stay-at-home' campaign, and the 948 acts that cops were called upon....probably were closely connected the Covid-19 business.

Over all, I'd say that it's a pretty good police report, but all this success?  It's tied to Covid-19 influencing crime to a great extent.  If it ever does go away.....the numbers will change to reflect a different culture.  

This Astrazeneca-Thrombosis Chatter

 I spent an hour this morning looking over this halt, and restart of the Covid-19 vaccine....Astrazeneca.  The issue which drove the halt?  Roughly 13 Germans and a unknown number of Europeans....had a case of Thrombosis to be reported (after the first shot).  Connection?  Unknown.

So it's an odd thing....just in the US alone....around 900,000 Americans every single year....report issues that revolve around Thrombosis....without any Covid-19 'juice'.

Over a ten-year period....roughly 885k Germans reported some type of Thrombosis issue....long before Astrazeneca ever arrived.

Thrombosis is something to worry about, but if you were looking for some serious way to connect it to a vaccination shot....the odds are probably in favor of you have some slight problem existing before you ever got the shot. 

If you went out to doctors and asked how many folks in the past month have come in with Thrombosis-like conditions, and they haven't even had the vaccination yet?  It might be dozens of Germans.  

Germany and Covid-19: 19 March 2021

 1.  Based on the headliner on Focus news this morning....the government will approve today (Friday) Astrazeneca again....to be used.  The worry over the thrombosis issues?  The number of cases reported at this point is around 13 (nationally).  In this case, the government held a joint meeting of all health ministers from the 16 states, and they all agreed....it's worth continuing.  

How many Germans will volunteer to use the vaccine in question?  Unknown.  It took a pretty harsh criticism, and I would imagine half of the potential people will say no at this point.

I would add....it'll take months to take apart the 13 affected people and their health conditions....to determine what previous issues they had.

2.  Fairly rural area of Schrozberg (halfway between Stuttgart and Nuremberg) is now the 'HOT-zone' in Germany for Covid-19.  

3.  Noticed this morning....hotels in Mallorca are surging on hotel reservations by Germans.  Giving locals a good bit of positive feeling over the economy recovering.

4.  Rostock announced that the numbers and conditions are in play....to allow soccer fans to attend live matches in the city's arena (first time since November that has occurred).

Vaccine Story

 It's a little four-line story which is amusing, yet very serious.

According to the German authorities....once you get vaccinated with vaccine-x....the second booster shot (usually two to three weeks later) will also be with vaccine-x.  You would NOT go and do vaccine-x on this visit, and two weeks later.....have the booster shot with vaccine-y.

Well....N-TV did a piece today on a vaccine center in Saarbrucken, and they did three 'customers' with a mix problem (mixing with vaccine-x and vaccine-y).

There's somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,600 customers per day at this site, and while there's plenty of paperwork to prevent this stupid mistake.....somehow....they overcame all of the precautions.  

Problems?  No one has said much.  To be honest, I think if you asked the virus experts....they'd tell you that they've never done a test like this....mixing vaccine x and y.

You'd think that 'customers' would be clearly stating what they came for on the second visit....but you have to figure most of these visitors right now.....are probably people seventy and older.  So they might not be clearly thinking over the situation.  

Frankfurt Story

 About a kilometer NE of the Frankfurt train-station, you are in what I'd call the 'heart' of Frankfurt, and in the mid-town area.  

I'd describe it as a shopping district....mostly with limited growth in terms of apartments and residents.

I noticed this week....a lot of chatter going on about a high-rise development going on near the Goetheplatz area.  This is the district where you'd find the Gucci and Louis Vuitton shops....a number of banking/investment institutions, and within walking distance of the Hauptwache.....the main area for the Christmas market.  

The jest of this high-rise deal?  Four separate buildings....the shortest being 100 meters tall....the tallest being 230 meters tall.  It's mostly a condo development.  

The basic idea is to attract a new lifestyle and new dynamics to the mid-town area.  I sat and looked over the whole description.  What they generally missed describing?  Pricing for this condo situations.  Some of the reserved space is for business-related situations, but you get the impression....more than half the space is for residents.

Likely range?  I'd take a guess that a 100 square meter area would run a minimum of a million Euro.

A trend toward the 'Manhattanization'?  Some Germans would laugh, but Frankfurt has been working on this image ever since the 1960s.  

If you take into account the development of property south of the river, the airport structure, the subway system, and growth around the northern sector of the city....the city has become a mini-version of Manhattan.  

As for the speed of this project?  They are already suggesting that the first apartments will be ready for occupancy by the end of 2024.  

The beginning of more such projects?  I would make a humble guess that three or four additional projects like this....high-rise and expensive apartments will be on the planning boards by 2026.  

If someone had left the Frankfurt area in 1972....by 2024, I don't think they'd recognize the city.  

The 30-Percent Story

 I sat and watched a piece this morning over commercial news concerning Denmark.  The Danes have sat down and looked at the immigration flow into the country and reached a particular and unusual view.  They don't want long-term problems as a end-result.  

Naturally, they avoid using the word 'ghetto'.

The wording of their legal effort?  They are drafting up a law that says that no community or city or neighborhood can have more than 30-percent non-Dane. 

How this would work in terms of use?  No one really says.

You'd have to have a particular type database existing.....which details a person's ethnical background.  If you were a second generation Russian-Dane?  I'm not sure if you'd be counted as a immigrant still, or as a authentic Dane.

You'd have to draw a line around a particular suburb or neighborhood.....to have the city statistics guy label people.  Once you hit 30-percent?  Well....that's it....no more new migrants or immigrants allowed in that area.

Why is 30-percent the magic number?  It's absolutely a number pulled out of thin air.  You could have made the number 25-percent, or even 15-percent.

I pondered upon this idea...if you applied it to Germany.  There are certain towns or regions where migrants or immigrants probably number less than five-percent.  If you drive over to the Hunsruck (west of Mainz)....you can wander into some towns of 2,000 residents, and you might find three Turkish families.  

You can also wander into neighborhood of eastern Frankfurt, and find that the demographic make-up is now around 50 to 60 percent 'new' German (meaning migrant or immigrant).  

You can travel over to the 'westend' of Wiesbaden (an entire suburb) and find around fifty-percent of the occupants of the area are 'new' Germans.  

One odd theme of this Danish effort....as you have a town hit 30-percent....it basically means the next town over....will become the magnet for new arrivals.  And when that town hits 30-percent.....it'll be the next town over that gets the next group of arrivals.  

A Mask Story

 It's a bit comical (yet serious) on a story that popped-up this morning, via Focus news.

For about six months (2020), you were mandated to wear a mask for the Covid-19 crisis.  Didn't matter what kind of mask.....it could have been paper, cloth, etc.

I would suggest that 60-percent of Germans had gone to cloth masks, because it made sense on re-use.  You'd take it off at the end of the day....soak it in some vinegar, and throw it in the wash.  

Well....the government came out toward November with this mandate....it could only be FFP-2 or a particular surgical mask.  A lot of Germans grumbled about this change (you were basically given two weeks).  Sourcing either type?  This became a huge task.

So the German government came up and said they'd 'give' you some masks.  You'd get these free masks via your local pharmacy.  At the time....it didn't really make sense to me.  You should make a mandate for 30 days away, and just let the grocery stores find distribution channels to acquire and sell you the masks.

Yesterday, folks woke up and realized that regular taxpayers are now going to get the bill (to the government) over this 'free' deal.

The key issue?  This whole 'free' deal....came because the Minister of Health established the mandate.  The estimated cost to the government?  TWO billion Euro (figure around $2.5 billion dollars).

Why?  The government agreed (for each single FFP-2 mask)....to pay 6 Euro....even though the cost factor was around 1-to-2 Euro (some will argue that the manufacturing/delivery cost is actually closer to 80 Euro-cents).  If you were a pharmacy, and you had 10k people walk through over a two week period to get four masks....the pharmacy made roughly 160k Euro profit.  

The comparison I'd make.....you get ten pallets of soda, for 1-Euro each (from the dealer), and the customer is mandated to pay 5-Euro for each soda.  It's an unbelievable scale of profit involved here.

This is all front-page news this morning.  It really damages the Merkel coalition a good bit, and displays the entire landscape of 'free' stuff for what it is.  Nothing....absolutely nothing....is ever free.  You pay somewhere down the line.

The stupidity of not allowing an entire month to reach a 'must-wear' date for the FFP-2 mask, and letting the grocery stores do what they do the best?  

Political Chatter

 In the past 48 hours, there's been a lot of chatter by opposition parties in Germany over the idea of firing the Economics Minister (Altmaier) and the Health Minister (Spahn).  Public TV has picked up the chatter and carried it to the extreme.

On the value of firing both?

First, it'd toss the CDU Party (which both belong to).....for a loop, and probably bring down their public standing to around 24-percent over a two-month period....meaning the odds are that the Green Party would surge up for the September election.

If the SPD agreed (the coalition partner)?  Merkel might look at the mess and just say fine....the coalition collapses now at this point (March), and we will have an early election (something that the SPD probably would go nuts over).  How quick would an election occur?  Figure roughly about 75 days (more or less).

Have either guy failed?  Just my humble opinion.....both probably are among the better individuals to have held their job over the past twenty years.  So, I'm not buying much into the idea of firing either one.

Why public TV wants to pump this story?  The CDU has talked about downsizing them (Channel One/Two), and that's a good enough reason to criticize the party.

A quick election thrown into the works?  I'm not sure it helps the CDU that much, but it might really force a different view by the public and present the Green Party a more challenging situation.  

So, settle back to be entertained over the next two weeks. 

Political Chatter

 Polling was done Monday, and results came out this morning....over public reaction of the two state elections from the weekend, and the gut-feeling if there was an election today.

Shocker?  The CDU has edged downward....to 29-percent of the public-vote, if there was an election today.  

The Greens bumped up to 21-percent of the public-vote.  

No one else really gained or lost much....with two or three percent of people just saying they don't feel attracted to any party right now.

The scenario of a CDU downward trend, before the September national election?  

Well....if we reach a point where the CDU is around 25-percent, and the Greens are near 25-percent....it'll be a serious point of acceptance....if the Greens came out a half-point ahead in the end.

Using this scenario....the Greens, the SPD and Linke Party....might have enough votes to create a left-left-left coalition government, and it'd be around for four years.  

So right now....a fair number of CDU-type voters are asking questions, and if it's time to 'fire' a few of the executives in the party (Altmaier and Spahn are on the suggested list).  My gut-feeling is that these are two of the few CDU folks who are delivering at present, and if you tangled with them....it really invites a whole bunch of weird scenarios to occur.  

Tesla Factory Update

 About every two weeks, there's some new update on the Tesla factory going up in eastern Germany.  N-TV had the latest 'issue' this morning.

The Gigafactory to be built over in Brandenburg.....has this one unique issue brewing.  

The head-guy of the local water association (in the region of Grunheide)....says there simply isn't enough water to supply the Tesla factory with what it needs.

The comeback to the statement?  Musk made a comment to the effect....if there's not enough water....trees wouldn't grow in the local region.  I should state here....simply blunt truth....this is a highly wooded region, and would make the comparison that this area around Grunheide is kinda like the New Jersey wetlands (mixed woods, swamp, and a fair number of springs).

Where this is going to lead onto?  You have basically two scenarios.  Either Musk is correct, and there's more than enough water, OR you have a factory going up with limited water supply....then triggering locals to be suddenly fearful of a water shortage.

In the second situation, the factory would suddenly shutdown, jobs disappear overnight, and massive chaos brewing. 

The biggest consequence with the factory shutting down?  It'd suddenly prove the point why so many companies avoided putting up new factories in eastern Germany....that things are just stacked against you.  

The thing that gets me....if you go drive south of Grunheide....making a big circle within 20 miles....there must be a least twenty different lakes existing.  If you head west of Berlin (not that far away)....there must be at least twenty lakes existing there within a short 30-minute drive of West Berlin.  Tons of water is flourishing in the region.

If this whole Tesla plant idea crumbles?  It'll take a decade for people to get over the chaos created, and plant this idea that VW, Mercedes and BMW probably also will face the same issue....a shortage of water for the development of battery-cars.