'Flip-Switch' Mentality over Commerce and Capitalism

 A few days ago, this topic came up and I've spent a fair amount of time thinking about this.  

You can generally go and spend four years in college these days (doesn't matter if it's Germany, the UK, or the US), and avoid classes or discussions over economics, capitalism, commerce, production, trade, bartering, and marketing.  

In fact, you could specialize in politics for four years, and find yourself deep into a conversation over economics....but really have zero background to discuss matters yourself.  

As Covid-19 came along, this mentality surged up....that you could flip capitalism/commerce ON and OFF.  

This translated into incredible events....where you dealt with the idea of essential and non-essential.  With no background or expertise, you deemed barbershops or hair saloons as non-essential.  Then you'd turn to tire-shops and deem them non-essential.  Ice cream shops?  Non-essential, of course.  

So months would pass, and in your mind....the day would arrive (maybe four months later) that you'd reverse everything, and non-essentials would all reopen.  Then you woke up to realize that of the four ice-cream shops in your town 144 days later....only one reopened.  Two were bankrupted out of existence, and one survived without bankruptcy, but had no hard cash to stage a reopening. 

In my local town (Wiesbaden), I can point at twenty-five different 'fronts' which are today empty (having dissolved at some point in mid-to-late 2020).  One was a appliance shop in a premier location....which carried a hefty rental cost.  Another was a premier location which had been newly rented in 2019 as a cellphone sales shop.  One had been a small pub operation (maybe big enough for thirty customers max).  

Two months ago, I viewed a YouTube video of a California restaurant near a beach district, and the guy admitted defeat (shutting down permanently).  A lot of anger and frustration from the guy....but his outlook was that he was leaving the state because they couldn't handle commerce.  Behind his statement....it kinda figured into the mess that if thousands of operations like his weren't open....they weren't paying sales tax into the state machine.  This on-off flip switch had a serious problem which would arrive sooner or later.  Its just that they didn't grasp that part of the consequence.

I had a car in the spring of 2020 that desperately needed new summer tires (we were into May, and you really can't drive on winter tires in the warmer weather).  I had a particular shop that I'd done business with....for nearly six years.  Zero help.....they were non-essential and shut-down.  I even offered to secretly drop off the rims and they could do this under-the-table....'nope' they responded.  Finally in June, they reopened and got me on the massive schedule they had.

What happens this summer?  Around July/August, if you follow the news indications....a 'herd-mentality' will arrive, with enough folks 'jabbed' (given the vaccination), and suddenly....the flip-switch will go back on....full-blast.  

Well....they suggest that.

The biggest indicator of flip-switch success (at least in Germany)?  Right now, on the schedule....Oktoberfest 2021 is still listed.  Six months to go, and it'd be a way of saying the flip-switch is 'glued' into place.

Am I bullshitting?  Well....I tend to expect some massive entry gimmick (two or three entry points)....where you pay five Euro for a quickie Covid-19 test and then wait for the test to show 'negative' in a few minutes....then be allowed entry into the fest grounds.  

The fact that you might have paid near 3,000 Euro to get reservations, travel and accommodations, then have a 'positive' show and deny you the rich lifestyle of Oktoberfest?  Well....that's the real pain of what is coming.  

If they had 300 folks a day denied entry into the Munich beer-fest?  It'd start to beg questions, and make folks assume that Covid-19 is making another flip-switch entry into their lives.  

Same for the December Christmas markets?  Yeah....probably so.

'Flip-switch' economics and commerce is around to stay.  And it's a harsh reality which will eventually trigger political instability around Europe.  

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if by the spring of 2022...with the economy really stalled in Germany....that we see a new political party form up....called the Kippschalter Party (the flip switch party).  Mad consumers, angry business people, and disgruntled young people.....looking for something that the traditional parties can't offer.  

To end this discussion....back on Monday night, I watched a four-minute interview of a German bowling alley manager.  His business was non-essential.  He'd been pushed to the extreme on commerce and surviving.  His big hope?  Chancellor Merkel's crew would find a way to open up around Easter weekend.  He had tons of people calling for reservations for the week after Easter, and he was hyped up.  

I felt sorry for the guy.  He had a four-star operation, and consumers really to use his 'product'.  The 'flip-switch' stood in his way.