How Big a Deal is This Suez Canal 'Blockage' on the German Economy?

Well....it's an odd thing.

When you consider this ship, and three-hundred-odd ships on each side of the blockage....there's this odd group of things sitting in China which should be picked up in two weeks and brought to Europe....and this group of things which ought to be delivered into Europe in the next week or two.  

Bicycles, tires, light bulbs for cars, car batteries, etc.  If you walk into any German pharmacy....probably the bulk of products there...are Chinese-made and their restock effort are delayed by the  blockage.

Tennis shoes from Vietnam?  TV sets from Indonesia?  Curtains from South Korea?  

If this were a simple five to seven day delay....no one would say much.  I think behind the whole discussion....some folks are beginning to realize that half the containers on the blocked ship will have to be removed before you can 'lift' it enough.  

Time period?  I sat and watched a UK shipping expert discuss this matter here in the AM.  He figured that a rigged-up crane could be placed there, and maybe off-load five-hundred containers a day.  He figured a minimum of five days....on up to ten days.  But he added....this would assume that you'd have at least one to two of these rigged-up cranes around Egypt for the job, and that some OTHER emergency did not occur (like this ship starts leaking or tilting).  

All of this getting resolved by the 10th of April?  I just kind of doubt it, and figure the odds of a second issue are way above 50-percent.

So here's the thing....Huns (the German) will walk into a bicycle shop in four weeks to ask about a new set of tires for his bike and be told they are on back-order....with nothing expected until early June.  

Ingrid (the German) will walk into a pharmacy and ask for a particular skin conditioner, and be told it's on back-order, with delivery not until mid-June.

Ziggy (the German kid) will walk in and ask about a particular type of tennis shoe....only to be told it won't be delivered until the end of June.  

If the ship craps out and sinks?  Well....you'd be talking about catastrophic conditions....where certain tires won't be available at the German dealer for three months.  

So settle back....as bad as Covid has been....this is a whole new affect on the German economy, and it won't be pleasant.  

And you can add this one odd element to the story....if the goods aren't delivered yet....they aren't paid for yet either....meaning the shops in China, Vietnam or South Korea....won't get their money on time.  Two weeks wouldn't be a big worry....two months might be different.