The 'Crazy' Laschet Scenario

 Around a week ago, via a viewing of social media comment by a German....I came to this suggested scenario about the approaching election and why Laschet is the CDU candidate.  For those not familliar with the current situation....the executive committee of the CDU Party went on its own (not the membership itself) and just said that the party-chief (Laschet) would be the candidate for Chancellor.  General reaction by the public....a lack of enthusiasm for Laschet....enough to say he can't possibly win, and that the Green Party candidate (Baerbock) will likely be the winner.

So the scenario suggested in this social media 'chat' went to this idea.....the CDU VIP-players believe that a inflationary period and fairly negative economic period is coming in 2022.  With this belief, they believe that it's better for the Green Party to get stuck with the mess to clean up....fail miserably....and in 2025's election....the CDU would have a comeback.

I sat and reviewed this idea for a while.

Three things stand out:

1.  Economically speaking....there's no doubt that a down-period is in progress now....bankruptcies likely to increase by late summer, and the unemployment rate will bump to 7-percent by late summer.  If I were looking over 2022....it doesn't get any better.  The idea that the EU-bank and German government will dump cash to ensure a 'flow' still continues?  I'd give it a 99-percent chance of happening.  

2.  The Greens while winning in September....aren't exactly known as economically smart folks, and probably would resort to higher taxes on companies and the wealthy.....helping in some ways to bring more unemployment and a slower cash flow.

3.  The CDU would get four years to chill out and you'd see Spahn (the current Health Minister) as the probable 2025 CDU Chancellor candidate.  

I admit....it's an interesting twist to staying with Laschet, and would explain several issues.  Rigging the race to be a loss....to let the winner get a lousy four-year period where they can't really develop anything, and then walk in to say 'we can fix it this mess'?  More or less.

So I'm not that attached to the scenario and it's got a lot of crazy ideas mixed into this.  On the economic downturn?  That part....I won't argue about.  Last week, there was a rumor that Baerbock had promised the Finance Minister job over to Habeck (the co-chief of the Green Party).